Climate Catastrophe Chat

[Rodius]

English schools could exceed an “overheating” threshold of 26C........

I started to laugh my ass off when I saw 26C as overheating. I think they will cope with that (most of humanity can, so hopefully even the British will...maybe they will open the windows or wear shorts and T-shirts or something like that...human ingenuity will find a way).

Yeah.... I was shaking my head in wonderment that 26C would be a problem.
That is not a hot temp and people will adapt to those temps even in England.

I live a lot of my life in New Zealand which isn't too different to England temp wise.... and moving to Australia with the stupid heat here took about one year to adapt to. Now, I don't mind heat up until 33C and we still ride our bikes in that... albeit slower than usual.

It seems the English are dramatising those temps.
Nother an open window cant fix... or air con... which is ironic but still, not a drama and will be least of their concerns.

[Freegrass]

Sabine was having a bad day it seems. 



My reply:

Where do I start?
Hydrogen: Hysata will have a commercial electrolyzer on the market next year that's 95% efficient. And there's also natural hydrogen you might want to take a look at. It could be game changing.

CDR: To remove carbon from the ocean and the air, there is basically one solution, enhanced rock weathering. This can be done on land, but also at sea. Check out Project Vesta. They are covering beaches with Olivine. Scaling up should be easy and cheap, and it could remove tens of billions of tons of CO2 if we scaled it up massively.

So it is possible. The technologies exist. They just need to be scaled up now. And that's politics...

[kassy]

English schools could exceed an “overheating” threshold of 26C........

I started to laugh my ass off when I saw 26C as overheating. I think they will cope with that (most of humanity can, so hopefully even the British will...maybe they will open the windows or wear shorts and T-shirts or something like that...human ingenuity will find a way).

Yeah.... I was shaking my head in wonderment that 26C would be a problem.
That is not a hot temp and people will adapt to those temps even in England.

I live a lot of my life in New Zealand which isn't too different to England temp wise.... and moving to Australia with the stupid heat here took about one year to adapt to. Now, I don't mind heat up until 33C and we still ride our bikes in that... albeit slower than usual.

It seems the English are dramatising those temps.
Nother an open window cant fix... or air con... which is ironic but still, not a drama and will be least of their concerns.

Kids spend 30% of their live in school. Heatwaves make focusing harder.

Of course things are way worse in less affluent countries with hotter temperatures because they are already cutting months of education. It´s also bad for those working outside. OFc workers do not have the choice to ride their bike more slowly.

[Rodius]

English schools could exceed an “overheating” threshold of 26C........

I started to laugh my ass off when I saw 26C as overheating. I think they will cope with that (most of humanity can, so hopefully even the British will...maybe they will open the windows or wear shorts and T-shirts or something like that...human ingenuity will find a way).

Yeah.... I was shaking my head in wonderment that 26C would be a problem.
That is not a hot temp and people will adapt to those temps even in England.

I live a lot of my life in New Zealand which isn't too different to England temp wise.... and moving to Australia with the stupid heat here took about one year to adapt to. Now, I don't mind heat up until 33C and we still ride our bikes in that... albeit slower than usual.

It seems the English are dramatising those temps.
Nother an open window cant fix... or air con... which is ironic but still, not a drama and will be least of their concerns.

Kids spend 30% of their live in school. Heatwaves make focusing harder.

Of course things are way worse in less affluent countries with hotter temperatures because they are already cutting months of education. It´s also bad for those working outside. OFc workers do not have the choice to ride their bike more slowly.

The big news here is 26C is not all that hot and they will cope.

When I mentioned riding a bike in 30C+ temps it was more about it can be done and it isn't a real problem if you take your time... not that it be the mode of transport to work for workers or that people who work outside have it easy... but outside workers in Australia don't stop working just because it reaches 30C... it isn't fun, but that is work-life and people just harden up to it.

Also, England is rich, they can afford air con in classrooms and workplaces if they truly believe it matters so much.

[kiwichick16]

@  el cid  ....we find that funny  ......but as the post states performance declines with rising temps above  24 degrees C ?


i know i would fall asleep if it was 26 or warmer

[KiwiGriff]

The authors identify the indoor temperature of 26C as the upper “comfortable” limit in classrooms. While the average school would be expected to surpass this limit for more than one-third of the academic year under 2C of warming, it rises to half of the year for 4C of warming.

The authors also investigate a 35C threshold, above which “important health impacts” are seen. They find that, currently, schools only exceed this temperature threshold once every year, on average.

However, under 4C warming, the average school is expected to exceed this threshold around nine times per year, accounting for 5% of the academic year.

If 26C is uncomfortable for learning exceeding 35C is well beyond uncomfortable.
Humidity matters as much if not more than temperature.
At high humidity levels as often experienced in island nations like GB 35 C can be fatal.   

 
 

[kiwichick16]

when we lived in Oz , inland NSW , the towns slightly further inland and west  .....ie more towards central Oz ......delayed the start of the school year to early/ mid February to avoid the worst of the summer heat

and that was 10 years ago  ......it won't have got any better

[kassy]

Not all schools are equal and while things can be solved it´s not sure they will be solved in time.
Being in a classroom all day is very different from a bike ride. It will be the less privileged kids bearing the brunt of it. Of course the situation is way worse in other places but essentially it is the same. The kids suffer for something they did not cause.

[Richard Rathbone]

Also, England is rich, they can afford air con in classrooms and workplaces if they truly believe it matters so much.

England believes any available monies should be spent on the old, not the young. Labour and Tories are in a bidding war for who can promise the most extra to pensioners in the next parliament. The archetypal person in poverty today, is a schoolchild with working parents. These are the people that rely for food on the massive explosion of food banks thats happened under the Tories.

I think the best account of how this has happened is:
The Pinch: How the Baby Boomers Took Their Children's Future - And Why They Should Give It Back
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Pinch-Boomers-Childrens-Future-Should-ebook/dp/B004BA5492?ref_=ast_author_dp

The author was a Tory politician and its got substantially worse in the years since this was published. This is pre-COVID and before the Ukraine war and the consequences of both have been to intensify the pinch, with the horrendous mismanagement of Truss's brief spell as PM adding a large extra squeeze on top.

[Rodius]

Also, England is rich, they can afford air con in classrooms and workplaces if they truly believe it matters so much.

England believes any available monies should be spent on the old, not the young. Labour and Tories are in a bidding war for who can promise the most extra to pensioners in the next parliament. The archetypal person in poverty today, is a schoolchild with working parents. These are the people that rely for food on the massive explosion of food banks thats happened under the Tories.

I think the best account of how this has happened is:
The Pinch: How the Baby Boomers Took Their Children's Future - And Why They Should Give It Back
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Pinch-Boomers-Childrens-Future-Should-ebook/dp/B004BA5492?ref_=ast_author_dp

The author was a Tory politician and its got substantially worse in the years since this was published. This is pre-COVID and before the Ukraine war and the consequences of both have been to intensify the pinch, with the horrendous mismanagement of Truss's brief spell as PM adding a large extra squeeze on top.

Baby Boomers are the most selfish generation ever.

Society really needs to stop pandering to them, especially politicians.

And I know many people here are in that generation so please don't take offense or take it personally.

[Freegrass]

Also, England is rich, they can afford air con in classrooms and workplaces if they truly believe it matters so much.

England believes any available monies should be spent on the old, not the young. Labour and Tories are in a bidding war for who can promise the most extra to pensioners in the next parliament. The archetypal person in poverty today, is a schoolchild with working parents. These are the people that rely for food on the massive explosion of food banks thats happened under the Tories.

I think the best account of how this has happened is:
The Pinch: How the Baby Boomers Took Their Children's Future - And Why They Should Give It Back
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Pinch-Boomers-Childrens-Future-Should-ebook/dp/B004BA5492?ref_=ast_author_dp

The author was a Tory politician and its got substantially worse in the years since this was published. This is pre-COVID and before the Ukraine war and the consequences of both have been to intensify the pinch, with the horrendous mismanagement of Truss's brief spell as PM adding a large extra squeeze on top.

Baby Boomers are the most selfish generation ever.

Baby boomers are dying out. They were born in the years after the war. They're 80 years old now.

[kassy]

Just being angry at other groups is not going to help. A staggering amount of the pollution is from the last three decades so we are not quite of the hook.

We can influence the future but not the past. We are still doing the same thing...

 

[Rodius]

Just being angry at other groups is not going to help. A staggering amount of the pollution is from the last three decades so we are not quite of the hook.

We can influence the future but not the past. We are still doing the same thing...

The last three decades when Baby Boomers had the most influence over it......

And I don't let Gen X off the hook either (my generation) because we hung onto the coattails of the Boomers. While we seem to be trying to improve the situation, it really isn't anywhere enough so Gen X is failing as well, just not on the same level.

I think it matters that we look at the past to see the mistakes, not seeing them or discussing them just means we repeat them.

I think the under 20 year olds will be the ones who bear the brunt and will step up to the plate and deliver the actions we require.... it will be 30 years late but they are likely to be the next great generation.

[RichardStamper]

Also, England is rich, they can afford air con in classrooms and workplaces if they truly believe it matters so much.

England believes any available monies should be spent on the old, not the young. Labour and Tories are in a bidding war for who can promise the most extra to pensioners in the next parliament. The archetypal person in poverty today, is a schoolchild with working parents. These are the people that rely for food on the massive explosion of food banks thats happened under the Tories.

I think the best account of how this has happened is:
The Pinch: How the Baby Boomers Took Their Children's Future - And Why They Should Give It Back
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Pinch-Boomers-Childrens-Future-Should-ebook/dp/B004BA5492?ref_=ast_author_dp

The author was a Tory politician and its got substantially worse in the years since this was published. This is pre-COVID and before the Ukraine war and the consequences of both have been to intensify the pinch, with the horrendous mismanagement of Truss's brief spell as PM adding a large extra squeeze on top.

Baby Boomers are the most selfish generation ever.

Baby boomers are dying out. They were born in the years after the war. They're 80 years old now.

Boomers were those born 1946-1964, so the oldest are turning 78 this year and the youngest 61.  A good few air-miles left in them yet.

[kassy]

The last three decades when Baby Boomers had the most influence over it......

And I don't let Gen X off the hook either (my generation) because we hung onto the coattails of the Boomers. While we seem to be trying to improve the situation, it really isn't anywhere enough so Gen X is failing as well, just not on the same level.

Short version: everyone is failing. But why?
People don´t set the important policies. We get to vote on some parties but that is different.

We all get the same news and messaging. They tell us that changing things to fight AGW would cost so much money. It would lose all kinds of big interests money. Big oil and gas (including some state companies) but many others too. In fact it should lead to a more egalitarian world with a lot less pollution.

People vote on the cycle but lobbyists have access all the time. That´s why banks and oil and big chem and big food and big med all get their special treatment.

People want things to not get worse so they vote for some person they trust but we hardly ever address the lack of sustainability.

It´s not just AGW that is badly managed. Plastic and chemical pollution and aquifers being drained. Same goes for population decline and aging.

I think it matters that we look at the past to see the mistakes, not seeing them or discussing them just means we repeat them.

I think the under 20 year olds will be the ones who bear the brunt and will step up to the plate and deliver the actions we require.... it will be 30 years late but they are likely to be the next great generation.

They will have to work hard at it...wonder what they will think of us. Probably something along the line of how could they be so stupid.

[Rodius]

The last three decades when Baby Boomers had the most influence over it......

And I don't let Gen X off the hook either (my generation) because we hung onto the coattails of the Boomers. While we seem to be trying to improve the situation, it really isn't anywhere enough so Gen X is failing as well, just not on the same level.

Short version: everyone is failing. But why?
People don´t set the important policies. We get to vote on some parties but that is different.

We all get the same news and messaging. They tell us that changing things to fight AGW would cost so much money. It would lose all kinds of big interests money. Big oil and gas (including some state companies) but many others too. In fact it should lead to a more egalitarian world with a lot less pollution.

People vote on the cycle but lobbyists have access all the time. That´s why banks and oil and big chem and big food and big med all get their special treatment.

People want things to not get worse so they vote for some person they trust but we hardly ever address the lack of sustainability.

It´s not just AGW that is badly managed. Plastic and chemical pollution and aquifers being drained. Same goes for population decline and aging.

I think it matters that we look at the past to see the mistakes, not seeing them or discussing them just means we repeat them.

I think the under 20 year olds will be the ones who bear the brunt and will step up to the plate and deliver the actions we require.... it will be 30 years late but they are likely to be the next great generation.

They will have to work hard at it...wonder what they will think of us. Probably something along the line of how could they be so stupid.

My 15 year old is already saying that.

In fact, a vast majority of people in this forum are saying it.

Personally, I have resigned to the fact that we are losing this global civilization at the very least within 20 years and the collapse will continue until this type of living is but a distance memory in the history books (assuming we manage to keep enough to have them)

[kiwichick16]

@  rodius .....see post by vox  .....re Thwaites glacier

[Rodius]

@  rodius .....see post by vox  .....re Thwaites glacier

I did.... I wish I hadn't lol.

(If I don't laugh I will cry)

[kiwichick16]

@  rodius   .....yes ....it seems to put a definite timeline on the Thwaites going into rapid collapse ....maybe 20 -25 years if we are lucky

unfortunately we don't seem to be having much luck lately  ......although finding the ozone hole was extremely lucky

[Rodius]

@  rodius   .....yes ....it seems to put a definite timeline on the Thwaites going into rapid collapse ....maybe 20 -25 years if we are lucky

unfortunately we don't seem to be having much luck lately  ......although finding the ozone hole was extremely lucky

What I am waiting for is whether the temps in the oceans drop significantly this year or not.

If they drop, that is better news for having more time.

If they don't, it is going to be difficult to argue against a permanent new level of oceans temps that is currently difficult to explain.

I read today that something like 67% of coral globally is struggling this year.... it is reaching a very bad level already.

[kiwichick16]

still hanging up there

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/

[kassy]

The ocean temperatures are interesting. S Hem should cool somewhat or heat up less. The N Atlantic should tell us more about the shipping changes (it should stay high compared to earlier years).

On the longer term there are these things like Thwaites and the effect of AABW on the tropics , the loss in Himalayan glaciers and the loss of Arctic Sea ice which will all play out regardless of what we do. Combine that with hitting 2C in the 40ies which would put millions in danger and it is some sort of slow horror movie.

[kiwichick16]

Oops !!

https://www.theguardian.com/news/article/2024/may/24/last-summers-temperature-rise-could-be-worse-than-we-thought

[SteveMDFP]

Oops !!

https://www.theguardian.com/news/article/2024/may/24/last-summers-temperature-rise-could-be-worse-than-we-thought

It's really remarkable how often we hear, about a wide array of analyses of global change, "it's much worse than we thought before."

It seems it's far less common to hear "well, we were quite concerned about X, but there may not be such grounds for concern."

[jai mitchell]

 

[The Walrus]

Oops !!

https://www.theguardian.com/news/article/2024/may/24/last-summers-temperature-rise-could-be-worse-than-we-thought

It's really remarkable how often we hear, about a wide array of analyses of global change, "it's much worse than we thought before."

It seems it's far less common to hear "well, we were quite concerned about X, but there may not be such grounds for concern."

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-ice-age-analysis-suggests-worst-case-global-warming-is-less-likely/

[Linus]

A reminder that (as evidenced by the “worse than expected impacts from 1.3C) we will need far less than a worse-case warming scenario to bring catastrophic impacts upon ourselves.

[kiwichick16]

@ 420 ppm CO2  we have increased pre industrial levels by 50 %

if the study  ......see post 1222 ......is correct than currently we are actually at 1.7 / 1.8 ?? degrees C above pre industrial ......if pre industrial temps were .25 dgrees C cooler than previously thought.

Double 1.7 or 1.8  .......result 3.5/ 3.6 degrees C  @ 550 ppm CO2

However  ......but wait there's more !! ...... we are increasing the global temperature 10 times  ?? faster than at anytime previously  ....so the slow feedbacks .....like melting icesheets .....haven't had time to kick in yet .....IMHO.....

[Bruce Steele]

Increase DOM from increased arctic river flows.
Decrease productivity as the OMZ expands
Decreased efficacy of the carbonate sinks as the aragonite saturation horizon shoals.
Methane from arctic meltponds
Methane and CO2 from Arctic coastal erosion
Increased methane from shelf waters
Decrease in tropical forest
Drying of peat lands
Decrease in coastal kelpbeds
Nutrient overloads leading to anoxic conditions
Changes in cloud nucleation from loss of tropical forests

Just seems like a lot of carbon sinks that may not be operating like they did 100 years ago. The climate system has both sources and sinks but increasing sources while eroding the existing sinks at the same time makes our current situation so much different than glacial maxima or minima over the last 50 million years .  Hard to model novel situations. How much of the above can we quantify or accurately measure? 
 Yes there are some sinks taking up extra CO2 right now but do those sinks have unlimited capacity to do so and if not what is their potential as we continue to increase emissions?

[The Walrus]

@ 420 ppm CO2  we have increased pre industrial levels by 50 %

if the study  ......see post 1222 ......is correct than currently we are actually at 1.7 / 1.8 ?? degrees C above pre industrial ......if pre industrial temps were .25 dgrees C cooler than previously thought.

Double 1.7 or 1.8  .......result 3.5/ 3.6 degrees C  @ 550 ppm CO2

However  ......but wait there's more !! ...... we are increasing the global temperature 10 times  ?? faster than at anytime previously  ....so the slow feedbacks .....like melting icesheets .....haven't had time to kick in yet .....IMHO.....

Even if 1.8 is correct, a 3.6 degree rise would not occur until 630 ppm CO2 (another 50% increase)

[Rodius]

@ 420 ppm CO2  we have increased pre industrial levels by 50 %

if the study  ......see post 1222 ......is correct than currently we are actually at 1.7 / 1.8 ?? degrees C above pre industrial ......if pre industrial temps were .25 dgrees C cooler than previously thought.

Double 1.7 or 1.8  .......result 3.5/ 3.6 degrees C  @ 550 ppm CO2

However  ......but wait there's more !! ...... we are increasing the global temperature 10 times  ?? faster than at anytime previously  ....so the slow feedbacks .....like melting icesheets .....haven't had time to kick in yet .....IMHO.....

Even if 1.8 is correct, a 3.6 degree rise would not occur until 630 ppm CO2 (another 50% increase)

Even if we stopped at +3C, our global civilization is over and life on Earth is in for a major shake up with potential for a mass extinction event.... and this is all assuming there are no tipping points being triggered.

It is good the range has narrowed, but it doesn't really change much.

[kiwichick16]

50%  of 280 ppm ......the preindustrial level ......is 140 ppm

280 ppm x 2 =  560 ppm

[kiwichick16]

@  rodius   .....+1   ....as i was suggesting , the slow feedbacks , like ice sheets melting have not had time to play out yet

we are also melting permafrost , reducing forest cover ,  and heating the oceans , all of which have varying degrees of inertia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_inertia

[The Walrus]

50%  of 280 ppm ......the preindustrial level ......is 140 ppm

280 ppm x 2 =  560 ppm

That is correct.  However, temperature is not linearly related.  Rather it is logarithmic, such that an additional 140 ppm increase will result in less warming.

[be cause]

the developing heatwave in the Arctic looks potentially catastrophic .

[kiwichick16]

@  the walrus  ......this study suggests rapid temp increases at plus 470 ppm CO2

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/12/211215132705.htm

[The Walrus]

@  the walrus  ......this study suggests rapid temp increases at plus 470 ppm CO2

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/12/211215132705.htm

That doesn’t change the physics!

[kiwichick16]

tipping points likely to be triggered by the physics

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/06/earth-on-verge-of-five-catastrophic-tipping-points-scientists-warn

[Rodius]

@  the walrus  ......this study suggests rapid temp increases at plus 470 ppm CO2

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/12/211215132705.htm

That doesn’t change the physics!

That is funny coming from you... because the experts are screaming out rather loudly that we are in extreme trouble and anything over +2C is going to be very bad and the higher it goes the worse it will get.

Your continual silver lining approach doesn't change the reality of what is already here and what is coming will be a complete nightmare.

For example... global coral bleaching on the rampage... that isn't meant to happen until we are over +1.5C... we are on +1.2C ish.

https://www.naturetoday.com/intl/en/nature-reports/message/?msg=32350

[The Walrus]

tipping points likely to be triggered by the physics

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/06/earth-on-verge-of-five-catastrophic-tipping-points-scientists-warn

The Guardian has been repeating those same tipping points for years, continuing saying they are imminent.  They are no closer today, and some scientists are questioning whether some are indeed tipping points (overturning of amoc).  The nature article referenced takes about negative tipping points also, but the guardian ignores those.  Again, I prefer sticking to the physics, rather than the politics, even if it doesn’t state the same urgency.  It is not necessarily the silver lining that rhodius keeps harping about, but is closer to reality than the tabloids project.

[Rodius]

tipping points likely to be triggered by the physics

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/06/earth-on-verge-of-five-catastrophic-tipping-points-scientists-warn

The Guardian has been repeating those same tipping points for years, continuing saying they are imminent.  They are no closer today, and some scientists are questioning whether some are indeed tipping points (overturning of amoc).  The nature article referenced takes about negative tipping points also, but the guardian ignores those.  Again, I prefer sticking to the physics, rather than the politics, even if it doesn’t state the same urgency.  It is not necessarily the silver lining that rhodius keeps harping about, but is closer to reality than the tabloids project.

They are closer.... by the very nature of time, they are closer.

Coral reefs are already in trouble... that is earlier than predicted (It was meant to be +1.5C)

Have you noticed the increasingly huge fires in some parts of the world? The increase is not small, they are a step change.

How about the ocean temps?

How about the Amazon destruction? That is speeding up lately due to idiotic human decisions.

This is all from research... observable facts, not tabloids.

The AMOC is slowing down. People who research that stuff are concerned because it is becoming apparent the AMOC could slow even more and those who disagree are shrinking in number.

Also... it is becoming pathetic that you spell my username incorrectly. I find it amusing that you go to such silly levels.

You keep talking things up. The crazy part about you is how you produce an article saying the increases arent as high due to new research as if that is meant to prove you are right in not panicking when the difference is a mere 0.1C in 50 odd years... as if that is going to prevent the damage.

You keep finding the silver linings... keep talking the problem down... as I have said before, you wont be here when it gets bad so live it up and let the youth of today fix up the mess you are trying to deny in spite of the evidence.

It isn't your problem... why are you even trying to talk it down anyway?

I said it before, I will say it again.. you are the worst type of denier.

[Carbon for the Carbon God]

It isn't your problem... why are you even trying to talk it down anyway?

I said it before, I will say it again.. you are the worst type of denier.

I wouldn't bother trying to convince somebody at this point who doesn't see the writing on the wall, particularly if they are on a forum about arctic sea ice and still don't put the pieces together.

Global industrial society will unravel in the coming decades and people will deny even as they simultaneously drown and burn to death.

At the end of the day we are just chimps with slightly better deductive reasoning skills. Much like how a wolf population on an isolated island will boom and bust, so too will humanity.

[The Walrus]

Rodius, I apologize for the spelling.  I blame it on spellcheck, which changed it to a recognized word.  Sometimes, I catch it.  My view is that in order to convince people that action is needed, we need to be honest.  Emphasizing worst case scenarios is not the best approach.  Nor is calling reputable scientists “deniers.”  I would argue that you kind are doing more harm by making claims that are not supported.  When people see that, they tend to dismiss everything else.  That is why we are stuck in the doldrums, doing very little, namely what is easy. 

[El Cid]

Two things:

1. AMOC: There are opposing views and we have a very short dataset. The one we have shows no change in the strength of the amoc. See here:
https://climate.metoffice.cloud/amoc.html

2. Amazon deforestation. This one IS a tipping point. If you fell enough of that forest the rains will not come which will kill the rest of the forest (and agriculture in that region). A serious problem and a case of human stupidity. However, this is NOT a consequence of AGW but deforestation.

[Bruce Steele]

We don’t need to trigger tipping points if we reduce the sinks enough.

[John_the_Younger]

silver lining

The CO2 fixing that happens when minerals weather will happen 'faster' the warmer the Earth's surface gets.  That's the good news.  Unfortunately it will take on the order of 100,000 years to undo what industrial humanity has done in a hundred years - so not so relevant for our kids and theirs.

But at least the Earth will abide!     

[Rodius]

Rodius, I apologize for the spelling.  I blame it on spellcheck, which changed it to a recognized word.  Sometimes, I catch it.  My view is that in order to convince people that action is needed, we need to be honest.  Emphasizing worst case scenarios is not the best approach.  Nor is calling reputable scientists “deniers.”  I would argue that you kind are doing more harm by making claims that are not supported.  When people see that, they tend to dismiss everything else.  That is why we are stuck in the doldrums, doing very little, namely what is easy.

The problem you have is you think this thread is about worse case scenarios.... it isn't.

It is about on point.

The worst case scenario is the extinction of our species within the next 50 years. For us anyway.

And this is not out of the realm of possibility either. There is a growing number of scientists in the fields that matter who are saying we could already have the last human to exist is alive today.

One of my friends has a doctorate in evolution, he thinks we will be extinct by 2100 or, at best, on our last legs and struggling to exist as a species. He is about 75, has been in this field since his late 20s, he knows his stuff.

I consider that scenario a worst case.

What is being said, by me anyway, is this.... on our current path, which has no real signs of changing much, our global civilization will collapse within 20 years.

The stresses on our systems will break, we will almost certainly collapse the Amazon, there is a reason chance a methane burst will happen, corals will all but be gone, ocean acidification will wreak havoc on ocean species, and we might even pile on with a world war because we just don't seem able to help ourselves.

By 2100, we will be a bunch of semi isolated nations without complex infrastructures and living more simply than today with little chance of a return to what we have today because the means of this global society is petrol. Without complexity, petrol isn't possible. Without global interconnectedness, renewables are not possible.

With an unpredictable climate, we don't get to have what we have again.

That is not a worst case scenario, it is plausible.
It could be better, but that requires a global effort that is co ordinated and focused. Anything less is going to see a situation not dissimilar to what I have described above. I don't think I will be 100% correct, but the overall scenario over the coming 50 to 70 years will be some iteration of it.

I have yet to see anything that suggests a collapse wont happen.
And we have no real idea what is coming our way.... oddly, I base that on what the IPCC is saying, which is a watered down version that is consistently under estimating the consequences and speed of change.

[John_the_Younger]

When my house, under construction, was just more than a bare stick structure, the builder said of the hurricane clips, "Those won't keep your roof on during a hurricane."  I wondered, "They won't?"  He replied, "No, it'll be all the trees on your roof that will keep it in place."  He did not like that my house was in the woods.  Well, a couple hurricanes (once in the eye of a Cat 1) and a few tropical storms later, no trees on the roof, although I watched two large trees fall in 'distant' parts of my or a neighbor's yard. 

Well, a tornado (May 10 - EF1 in my neighborhood - EF2 in worst-hit areas - 3 tornado paths that morning in the county) snapped a pine near my house which, when it fell, raked an eave & rain gutter, and left two large-ish oak limbs dangling over my back porch roof.  (I removed them yesterday with the aid of rope, a come-along winch and a 14 foot (4¼ m) bamboo pole [to place the rope], barely touching the already damaged roof when they fell.)  Smaller trees damaged my shed and carport, and several large (mostly) pines fell or are half-fallen elsewhere on our property; I spent a full day clearing our 100' (30m) driveway; no 'clean' electric power for 8 days. (A tree removal crew backed their equipment into the transformer that feeds us and a neighbor, and it produced non-standard electricity when the power came on (at day 6.5), burning out my neighbor's refrigerator and my dehumidifier and a couple arc-fault circuit breakers.)  About 10 of my 26 neighbors had much worse damage to their homes or cars (two totaled).  We've joked that we can now plant those full-sun flowers that never worked before.

Anyway, with a more chaotic climate coming upon us, more and more of us will have similar experiences.  Although good for GDP in the short run, it's not so good for sustained habitability in the manner to which we've become accustomed.

[Ranman99]

What state are you in JtY? Florida? North or South? Just curious. Sounds more like further up the east coast. I was imagining a friend's place as you described yours. Stay well!!

[Carbon for the Carbon God]

Anyway, with a more chaotic climate coming upon us, more and more of us will have similar experiences.  Although good for GDP in the short run, it's not so good for sustained habitability in the manner to which we've become accustomed.

This is an excellent point that is often overlooked in these "catastrophe" conversations. Whether we can agree on the particular effects of AGW in the coming years, decades, etc, it will grind us down regardless. At least in the USA, the majority of people can't afford to repair their roofs after every hurricane season - and even if they could, the demand and supply chain constraints would make it nigh impossible.

It is situations like what John the Younger describe, happening many tens of thousands of times every day for random people all over the world, that does us in There is no winning attritional warfare with Mother Nature.