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Author Topic: Weather physics  (Read 1094 times)

Freegrass

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Weather physics
« on: December 07, 2021, 08:00:07 AM »
Weather dictates the ice, so lets have a talk about it!
I need to learn so much more about the weather...
When computers are set to evolve to be one million times faster and cheaper in ten years from now than the computers we have today, then I think we should rule out all other predictions. Except for the one that we're all fucked...

squilliam

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Re: Weather physics
« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2021, 09:18:23 AM »
Can someone explain what will happen as the ice melts and we transition from a desert arctic environment to an environment with significant levels of water vapour and potentially... rain/snow? I understand some of the physics of phase change (heat of enthalpy). Is there anything else that will happen aside from the obvious warming and increase in moisture?

I understand for instance that dimethyl sulfur is a significant component in raincloud formation produced by phytoplankton. Is there going to be significantly increased cloud formation due to the presence of open water? 

Glen Koehler

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Re: Weather physics
« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2021, 12:52:28 AM »
     Often when we attempt to discuss Climate, the examples and discussion really become about Weather.  Reversing course, this discussion thread is supposed to be about Weather, but in a changing world, understanding the Weather requires background on what's going on with the Climate.  50 years ago, you could assume Weather was the changeable surface of an underlying stable Climate foundation.  Now to understand weather you need to know about the rapidly evolving climate framework within which the weather operates. 

     The link below is to a message posted this week to the young people of planet Earth by the estimable Dr. James Hansen.  The first 2 pages are a good update on what's going on with global response to climate change, and can stand alone if that's all you have time for. 

     And if you want more, the other 34 pages give you the scientific details for a comprehensive yet relatively concise current review of climate change 101.  About half of the 34 pages are occupied by easy to understand graphs, some of which are repeated.  He states his case clearly and simply, so it is a pretty quick read.  It would be great if all the politicos would take a break from dialing for dollars to read it.
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2021/BrightFuture.03December2021.pdf

PS That's Hansen's granddaughter Sophie as a toddler in the picture (the descendant in the title of his forthcoming book "Sophie's Planet").  Like the rest of us, she's a bit older now and one of the young people Hansen is trying to save from the older generations' unfortunate legacy.  It's not just science, it's personal.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2021, 03:49:12 PM by Glen Koehler »
“What is at stake.... Everything, I would say." ~ Julienne Stroeve

squilliam

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Re: Weather physics
« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2021, 03:45:29 AM »
TLDR:

  • 1.5 Degrees is a pipe-dream, 1.8-2.0 is our best chance depending on how serious
  • Nuclear is great to reduce the carbon intensity of an economy
  • Aerosols are likely vastly underestimated
  • Karina Von Schuckmann is responsible for the Argo float data, Dr Argonaut is her super-hero name 8)
  • Gas blows as a clean energy source, also motivated reasoning from major powers to support this

It was a good report. It wasn't anything I haven't seen before, but it was well crafted and easy to read in whole so I encourage everyone who is interested to do so.