31 votes in perhaps enough for a quick look:
Median vote is now 2033
2.5 years ago median vote was 2026.
So moved 7 years later in 2.5 years.
At that rate .... ![Wink ;)](https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
Anyway, seems more people believing the slow transition type curve as you would expect with more data to support it.
With 52 votes now in, a clearer picture is emerging. Granted this may be skewed by different voters, but the current situation looks like this:
Timeframe Old New
Poll Poll
2018-19: 17.9% 0.0% No surprise as the Arctic did not become ice-free
2020-25: 31.3% 7.7% Big drop, supporting the slow transition curve
2026-30: 19.4% 32.7% Possibly just a shift due to the two years since the previous poll.
2031-40: 22.4% 38.5% The new mode, which is 10-15 years later than the previous poll.
2041-60: 3.0% 9.6% Big jump from previous.
2061-80: 0.0% 1.9% Only 1 total vote in the combined polls, hence it is not significant.
2081-00: 1.5% 0.0% Same as previous timeframe.
2100+ 4.5% 9.6% Another big jump from the previous poll.
It is apparent that the contributors to this recent poll believe that an ice-free Arctic will occur much later than previous voters. Combining the brackets yields this analysis:
Time Old New
< 2025 49.3% 7.7%
2026-40 41.8% 71.2%
> 2041 9.0% 21.2%
Significantly fewer voters feel that an ice-free Arctic is imminent.