Casual 2022 melting season predictions

[PragmaticAntithesis]

It's that time of year again, time for everyone to squabble over whether or not it's technically melting season yet!

Anyway, predictions are supposed to start *before* melting season begins so no-one can blame me for being too early.

As for what I think will happen this year, I think we'll see a rather uninteresting year. Not a complete dud like last year but also not breaking the 4Mm² extent barrier like 2020 and 2012. There will be a few record setting days in the middle of the melt season when the weather gets bad, but no more than a few.

[I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER]

Based on absolutely nothing at all, I will throw my hat in the ring with a very early prediction of a summer minimum in the 3rd-6th place range. Seems like things could be off to a decent start and gain some momentum, but at this point, who really knows? Regardless, it is sure to be an interesting season to observe and learn from.

[wallen]

Mmmmm, a non-scientific hunch. Top 3. Below 4m would not surprise.

[binntho]

The first thing to remember is that there is almost no memory in the Arctic sea ice system. Which means that what happened last year stays last year.

The shape of this coming melting season will be determined by a few major factors that are mostly random. The first is the amount of cloud and rain and warm air during early melt. More clouds and rain + higher temperatures results in a wetter ice surface, which experience shows is a strong precondition for melt during the main insolation period later in the season.

The second factor is the amount of sunlight during the main insolation period of June and July. Lastly, storminess in late season can have a significant impact on the final numbers.

If 2022 is to hope for below 4m then all three factors would need to play out. Wet + cloudy, replaced by sunny, replaced by stormy weather.

Early forecasts for March and April (see e.g Severe Weather Europe) seem to indicate higher than normal pressures over the Arctic with a strong influx of warm air, with 2m temperatures and precipitation both above average.

So I'll go tentatively for <4m this year.

[HapHazard]

Bit of a roller-coaster, I think. Extent around 3rd to 7th. Eye test will look more slushy/rubble-y than normal, by the end. But the weather will fluctuate enough to avoid too-long mass-melt stretches.

What day is it? Crap, I gotta go to work. Coffee time.

[Aluminium]

Still no one predicted new lowest.

[be cause]

I will

[The Walrus]

I will

I won’t.  Might be lower than the last few minima, but not 2012.

[Tor Bejnar]

In 2012 I predicted the record low Arctic SIE would be re-set in 2019, and I'm sticking with that.  Wait, no I'm not.  I've sort of given up looking for my crystal ball* (made of optical quartz), but 'expect' a record low 'any year now'.
____
* - actually, I've never had one, and have given up looking for one, too, although I've seen some beauties!

But the chances of a record melt increase with each year of (continued) acceleration of the increase in atmospheric CO2 and CO2e.

[interstitial]

problem is the data makes an informed decision only good for about 60-90 days out maybe a little more but certainly not 150 days out.

[El Cid]

If this winter was very warm in the Arctic despite a strong polar vortex then that heat came from below the ice. But extent was quite high swhich means less open seas than usual. In my book it means that the ice has to be actually thinner than we think. So: I predict a very strong melting season this year. 1st or 2nd place (2012 is hard to reach)

[Alumril]

I don't think it will be as high as last year, but I think it will still be slightly above trend. Maybe 4.5m.

[Freegrass]

Moved over from the melting thread.

Thanks for the gifs and the analysis. Just don't get carried away with the seasonal speculation.

Thanks, and I won't. I just wanted to get on record one time before the melting season starts in earnest. It's more like a value I place on the ice before the season starts. I see this as 4.25 ice. It's a starting number for when a season ends up "normal". Big storms, and the sun beating down on the ice during peak insolation, will bring this number down of course. A clouded melting season without any big storms (like last year) will raise that number. But if this ends up like an average melting season, I think we'll end up somewhere around 4.25. But I'm sure that number will be adjusted during the season.