JAXA (ADS) 2022 Arctic SIE daily minimum: July Poll

[Juan C. García]

The poll is for the minimum Daily Arctic sea ice extent in 2022, as measured by ADS-NIPR-VISHOP (JAXA).

September mínimums have been:

Date              Min (10^6 km2)
Sep 12, 2000        6.04
Sep 17, 2001        6.55
Sep 8, 2002          5.51
Sep 18, 2003        5.93
Sep 11, 2004        5.68
Sep 21, 2005        5.18
Sep 14, 2006        5.63
Sep 17, 2007        4.07
Sep 9, 2008          4.50
Sep 12, 2009        5.05
Sep 17, 2010        4.62
Sep 10, 2011        4.27
Sep 16, 2012        3.18
Sep 12, 2013        4.81
Sep 17, 2014        4.88
Sep 14, 2015        4.26
Sep 7, 2016          4.02
Sep 9, 2017          4.47
Sep 21, 2018        4.46
Sep 17, 2019        3.96
Sep 13, 2020        3.55
Sep 12, 2021        4.61

[oren]

Thanks for opening the poll, Juan.
This time I voted for 3.5-4.0, following the Beaufort-CAA heatwave forecast.

[Paul]

Dropped by one from June to between 4.00-4.50(although I favour towards the higher end of the range) because of the rapid change in the Beaufort/Chukchi seas. It does seem quite likely the ice distribution will be different compared to last year which could mean less ice in the Beaufort than the previous 2 years but more ice in the Laptev than the previous 2 years also. An ice shape similar to 2018 is possible.

It does mean we could again lose alot of the multi year ice   unfortunately but time will tell I guess.

Looks likely we could see a diffused looking pole area also by September with the constant low pressure systems forecast.

[gerontocrat]

From Jaxa data

I attach the Plume of projections of sea ice extent, which is based purely on the numbers.

The graph adds the daily sea ice change of each of the last 10 years (& the average) from now to the current sea ice extent to give a range of possible outcomes.

The average outcome would be a minimum of nearer 4.5 million km2 than 4.25.
The range is from about 3.4 miilion km2 (2012 sea ice losses from now) to about 5.1 million km2 (2014 sea ice losses from now).

Cautious me leans to the average with a small adjustment for AGW having to have an impact eventually. So I go for 4.25 million km2, i.e. 4.0 to 4.5 million km2.

click image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

For those who consider the Albedo Warming Potential (AWP) has a lot of influence on future potential melt, here are some of the latest graphs from NICO Sun @ https://cryospherecomputing.com/NRTawp

The pan-Arctic cumulative AWP anomaly is above the 2010's average but well below that of previous recent years.

BUT the High Arctic cumulative AWP anomaly is well below the 2010's average and very much below that of previous recent years.

The last graph shows the  cumulative AWP anomaly for each region of the Arctic. In the High Arctic the AWP anomaly is high for the Kara & the Laptev, and very low for the Beaufort, the CAA and the Central Arctic.

[Stephan]

I stick with the 4.0±0.25 M bin, expecting a speed-up of ice extent loss in July compared to the second half of June.

[be cause]

Not gone for below 2 million this time , but still 2nd lowest of current voters .

[KenB]

Moving down to 3.5 - 4.0

[wallen]

I'm thinking the extent will be 4.5-5.0 this year, mainly due to dispersion. Though I expect ice to be in terrible condition, with a spread of polynas through the CAB.

[Icegod]

I'm the optimist, I haven't seen any reason to change from 4.75 to 5.25. To everyone predicting near record lows it's been a full decade since 2012. Temperatures are supposedly warmer since 2012 and yet no record. We talk about albedo and feedback returns and I think people are missing the boat. The Northern Atlantic has the biggest exposure to the Arctic. The AMO has flipped to a cold phase and you have the gulf stream which has clearly slowed. This at the end of the season will show itself in having more ice IMO.

[oren]

Welcome, Icegod. A good first post, the prediction will either play out or not.

[Tom Stedman]

I think we'll see a minimum daily extent in the region of 4.3 million, a little lower than last year, probably with a similar volume.
A lot could be decided this month.

[Paddy]

I've gone for 4.25 to 4.75. May be a bit on the conservative side, but even the midpoint of that means catching up a bit (currently 2022 is in 12th place, with the midpoint in this making catching up to 10th).

[Brigantine]

My vote: 4.25 - 4.75 (down 1 bin)

Estimated probabilities for each bin:
Mean                                   4.42           (+0.01)
Median                                4.47           (-0.06)
Highest Probability Density 4.54           (-0.13)
95% Confidence Range      3.30 - 5.30 (+0.33/-0.07)

<2.00 <0.01%
2.00-2.25 <0.1%, 2.25-2.50 0.1%, 2.50-2.75 0.2%, 2.75-3.00 0.6%
3.00-3.25 1.3%, 3.25-3.50 2.7%, 3.50-3.75 4.9%, 3.75-4.00 8.6%
4.00-4.25 14.2%, 4.25-4.50 20.5%, 4.50-4.75 21.6%, 4.75-5.00 15.1%
5.00-5.25 6.9%, >5.25 3.3%

[D-Penguin]

My vote: 3.00 - 3.50

Why? Because what will be will be and will not be based on what has been.

I acknowledge the 'trends' BUT I believe that the next 'extraordinary event' will be unpredictable aka 2012.

In other words, my 'prediction' is a pure guess 

[Bruce Steele]

I’ll stay with last months guess 4.25- 4.75

[Lord M Vader]

My first guess for the season is a high 4,5-5,0. Was in and between that or 4,75-5,25 Mn km².

Given the persistent cyclonic activity, I find it hard to see a value below 4,5 Mn km².

[Juan C. García]

I voted 3.75-4.25 km2.
I changed my mind and I was going to change my vote to 4.0-4.5 km2.
But I try to do it a couple of minutes late...