Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation  (Read 1982667 times)

Peter Ellis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 619
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 33
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1950 on: May 16, 2016, 08:16:48 PM »
It's well within the error bounds of the estimation algorithm and is probably just noise.  We can't jump at every shadow.

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1951 on: May 16, 2016, 09:50:05 PM »
Peter, Wipneus,
A strong incursion of Southern winds over the ESS has been forecast for several days now.
Reports today show +10 dC almost at the shores near Pevek and close to Tiksi.
A Low has moved into the Arctic on that route.
The darkening is undoubtedly related to incoming warm and relatively humid air.

In my opinion the state of the Arctic is in no way reminiscent of that in the years '13, or '14 or whatever year.
That doesn't mean that I'm calling a new minimum extent record. It just means that in my opinion the danger is stronger than ever that a weird summer will produce havoc.

RoxTheGeologist

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 625
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 188
  • Likes Given: 149
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1952 on: May 16, 2016, 10:48:30 PM »
°C

Use 'alt 0176' to get the degree symbol!

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1149
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1953 on: May 16, 2016, 11:04:41 PM »
since it may be relevant to Wipneus' earlier post on wetting of snow I am linking to this post in the buoys thread
the camera on obuoy14 is transmitting again ...  comparing the image with the one from 11. May there is less snow both on the fallen IMB buoy and on ITP89
The warm temperatures on the 12th have caused some melt in the snow. This may be what the AMSR sensor picked up as reported by Wipneus



A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2977
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 944
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1954 on: May 17, 2016, 09:00:45 PM »
Just to synch this up this forum with whole-ocean animations over at the 2016 melt season forum #1254... Note three of our posters have discovered palette image squeezing on WorldView (open tiny little icon next to layer's 'X'). This improves color separation as a variant on grayscale contrast adjustment that wipneus is using above. This does not degrade the data in any way nor add non-invertible aesthetic enhancements.

The blowtorch in the latter frames corresponded to an influx of warm air on nullschool but the relevant blackbody emitter is the ice surface, not intervening air.

Ice of the entire Arctic Ocean is incapable of coherent rotation. Where would the center of rotation be and how would a constant radius deal with fixed islands? The innermost island will always be limiting. (The North Pole itself is way off center.) When an irresistible force meets an immovable object, something has to give and that is the ice, not the island.

Over the years, I have watched Banks Island serve for weeks as limiting factor for the Beaufort Gyre, then seen a transition to Prince Patrick, then shoreline cracks out to Greenland (but no associated coherent rotation). This latter has been moderate compared to recent years as noted by wipneus, though the Gyre itself looks more torn up. (We have a great many spring 2013 BG animations stored on site, Neven linked to them recently.)

The center of Gyre rotation remained rather stable this year, associated with a surprisingly stable high pressure persistent winds. However here was a surprising shift in floe motion west of Banks about five days ago as the winds shifted. It is quite remarkable how such a massive object can be jerked around by a little wind. The floe has to have an edge, surface roughness or ridge for the wind to get a grip.

Neven located a monthly mean wind vector product that doubles fairly well as the mean center of rotation of the Beaufort Gyre. Academics would go with the wind stress curl here. http://tinyurl.com/z97ckwy

I don't know that anyone has ever determined the radius and center of the maximal possible rotating object in the Arctic Ocean. That would take some thought on choice of a non-misleading projection (or purchase of two globes, one to be cut into caps of increasing radius and placed on the other).

Next up: make the cap gradually smaller to construct the overall translation/rotation footprint. Do this for each point in the Arctic Ocean, indeed all the world's oceans over geologic time, throw in lunar and martian basins, save as a humongous netCDF file that no one will ever open and write the ultimate academic paper that no one will ever read.

On the technical side, measuring rotation centers gets into Euler's fixed point theorem, much used in plate tectonics with hot spot coordinate systems to measure convection-driven drift of continents which from our perspective are just bigger floes with a more viscous connection to mantle than ice to ocean water.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2016, 10:24:15 PM by A-Team »

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1955 on: May 17, 2016, 09:36:43 PM »
Just to synch this up this forum with whole-ocean animations over at the 2016 melt season forum #1254... Note three of our posters have discovered palette image squeezing on WorldView (open tiny little icon next to layer's 'X'). This improves color separation as a variant on grayscale contrast adjustment that wipneus is using above. This does not degrade the data in any way nor add subjective enhancement. The blowtorch in the latter frames corresponded to an influx of warm air on nullschool but the relevant blackbody emitter is the ice surface, not intervening air.


It can be seen that the levels in general seem to come back to the situation prior to this swift "blowtorch" (which if I understood, means the surface practically recovers the previous temperature). Its effect then may be more qualitative due to the brief melting and wetting (except way North where a buoy reports 10 cm more of snow).

A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2977
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 944
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1956 on: May 17, 2016, 09:57:27 PM »
Quote
[animation color] levels in general seem to come back to the situation prior to the blowtorch
Good observation. The thermal inertia of a 1-2 m floe will shortly overwhelm any unsustained air melt of skin. However, depending on floe history, there can be a surprising deterioration of albedo from transient melt of dry snow and subsequent recrystallization, enabling more follow-on solar heating. Or at least academic papers go on about this for mid-elevation Greenland.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2016, 10:05:01 PM by A-Team »

sedziobs

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 395
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 63
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1957 on: May 17, 2016, 10:56:59 PM »
Of course there is a difference between the brightness temperature shown in A-Team's image and the sea ice concentration shown in Wipneus' animations.  It is my understanding that sea ice concentration is inferred from the directional polarization of emissions.  Since water and ice have distinct polarization signatures, they can be differentiated even with the same brightness temperature.

With that in mind, dark features, whether transient or persistent, would seem to indicate a greater portion of the surface covered in liquid.  The liquid could be evenly distributed as in (relatively) wet snow or sparsely distributed as in ponding.  Either way, a drop in albedo would be a consequence.  The albedo drop could not be determined quantitatively, as the microphysical character of the surface is relevant, but albedo should drop nonetheless.

However, upthread Wipneus says:
Quote
The reason for the darkening seen in these animations is still not explained to my liking. Note that the darkening may look dramatic, but it is not albedo because that is not what is measured here. It is ice concentration, computed from surface microwave emissions and I increase the contrast in these animations considerably.
Wipneus surely knows much more about this than I do, so I'm obliged to take his word.  Still, I'm confused as to how the darkening seen cannot indicate albedo drop, even if it is miniscule.

Aside from artifacts or effects caused by weather above the surface, my guess is that a change in the microphysical snow or ice surface could give a false indication of more liquid coverage, thereby producing a persistent dark feature.  Without having read any documentation, I assume that sea ice concentration is inferred using an empirical model.  Since snow and especially sea ice are heterogeneous, any small change in surface conditions can alter the effective emission layer depth, which would then cause the model to characterize the material differently.  In other words, the surface may have changed in a such a way that the emissivity more closely matches the a priori emissivity of a different surface.

So in summary, I think it is possible that a transient melt or precipitation event could leave a more persistent false indication of concentration drop.  The dark areas would then reflect real surface changes, but the nature of the change is unknown.  I'm no expert on this matter, so please consider my words as little more than speculation.

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1149
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1958 on: May 18, 2016, 12:36:49 AM »
The description by sedziobs of the difficulties of recognizing what changes are occurring at the ice surface from its thermal microwave emission fits what I have been reading in various papers. I have not found one yet which gives a clear overview to an interested layman like myself.
Apart from the presence of water at the surface or within a snow layer, ice layers, grain size of snow and salinity of the ice affects the signal observed by the satellite. This means multiple interpretation of that signal are possible. The algorithms use comparisons of H/V polarization channels and different frequency channels to eliminate temperature changes and weather changes from the signal which allows to distinguish the open sea surface from ice but there are still possible misinterpretations of changes in and on the ice as changes in ice concentration. Apparently water in thick clouds can also affect the signal.
The relationship of this signal with albedo is another difficulty. The signal itself shows the emission of microwaves by the surface which is a quite different process from the absorption (and transmission) of sunlight which is determined by the albedo of the surface. Yet the processes such as wetting, snow melt, changes in grain size affect both emissivity and albedo just not in the same way.
Tying this to the observations in the posts above, it is very likely that some changes in the microwave signal as the burst of warm, moist air passed through were temporary, some persisted. What they actually represent on the ground is probably impossible to say with certainty.

mmghosh

  • New ice
  • Posts: 62
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 63
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1959 on: May 18, 2016, 04:51:51 AM »
I'm assuming the coders are rechecking the data on clear days, and presumably rewriting the algorithms.  It sure seems a lot of (expensive) work.

6roucho

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 296
  • Finance geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1960 on: May 18, 2016, 09:05:17 AM »
Thus one of the unsung limitations of modelling: the cost of time.

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1149
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1961 on: May 18, 2016, 08:53:28 PM »
one approach to that is of course to feed all the available observed parameters into the program and let it learn by itself. This is done using information from SAR imagery to provide verification in smaller areas which should, if they are representative for the ice at large, yield the  way to combine those parameters which correlates them best with ice concentration.

Looking at a recent image from the only working obuoy in the arctic at the moment, illustrates what the microwave sensor may have seen.
In snow in the middle distance has a "shine" it did not have before the above 0oC temps on the 12th. This is a crust of refrozen melting snow  I think.

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 158
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1962 on: May 18, 2016, 08:54:52 PM »
Look at the dirty haze on the horizon. The smoke is becoming worse. I bet that is also getting absorbed into the top layer.

seaice.de

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 130
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 86
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1963 on: May 18, 2016, 09:56:05 PM »
Correct, you may have a look at this one
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S003442571200017X

Tying this to the observations in the posts above, it is very likely that some changes in the microwave signal as the burst of warm, moist air passed through were temporary, some persisted. What they actually represent on the ground is probably impossible to say with certainty.

A-Team

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2977
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 944
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1964 on: May 19, 2016, 05:38:01 AM »
Or this one, same Pi, later date, Beaufort data rather than indoor tank:

Investigating High-Resolution AMSR2 Sea Ice Concentrations during the February 2013 Fracture Event in the Beaufort Sea
A Beitsch L Kaleschke S Kern
Remote Sensing 2014, 6(5), 3841-3856; doi:10.3390/rs6053841 free full

Quote
Leads with a length on the order of 1000 km occurred in the Beaufort Sea in February 2013. These leads can be observed in MODIS images under predominantly clear sky conditions. Sea ice concentrations  derived from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) using the Bootstrap algorithm fail to show the lead occurrences, as is visible in the MODIS images. In contrast, SIC derived from AMSR2 using the Arctic Radiation and Turbulence Interaction Study (ARTIST) sea ice algorithm (ASI) reveal the lead structure, due to the higher spatial resolution possible when using 89-GHz channel data. The ASI SIC are calculated from brightness temperatures interpolated on three different grids with resolutions ...

Wipneus

  • Citizen scientist
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4220
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 1025
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1965 on: May 25, 2016, 10:11:46 AM »
An expanding large back blob has moved to a front stretching from the pole to the Kara Sea boundary.  Nullschool shows local surface temperatures near freezing point.
Scale is 6.25 km/pix for size.

abbottisgone

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1966 on: May 25, 2016, 10:20:02 AM »
An expanding large back blob has moved to a front stretching from the pole to the Kara Sea boundary.  Nullschool shows local surface temperatures near freezing point.
Scale is 6.25 km/pix for size.
I appreciate your comments about altering the contrast in some of your pictures for clarity..... The truth is all we've got!

Cheers!
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 948
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 461
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1967 on: May 25, 2016, 01:05:39 PM »
An expanding large back blob has moved to a front stretching from the pole to the Kara Sea boundary.  Nullschool shows local surface temperatures near freezing point.
Scale is 6.25 km/pix for size.

Could that 'blob' be tracing out the separation of the pack into 'Fram fodder' and 'other'? Should we see the type of forcing over Fram that the forecasts hint at then surely we will see this ice peel away from the central pack as it aligns itself with Fram?

Take all the ice on the Atlantic side of the 'blob' and you can see what a loss that would make prior to max insolation over any open waters produced?

 That would be a game changer!
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

abbottisgone

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 297
  • "...I'm a rock'n'roll star,...... YES I ARE!!!!!!"
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1968 on: May 26, 2016, 08:37:52 AM »
An expanding large back blob has moved to a front stretching from the pole to the Kara Sea boundary.  Nullschool shows local surface temperatures near freezing point.
Scale is 6.25 km/pix for size.

Could that 'blob' be tracing out the separation of the pack into 'Fram fodder' and 'other'? Should we see the type of forcing over Fram that the forecasts hint at then surely we will see this ice peel away from the central pack as it aligns itself with Fram?

Take all the ice on the Atlantic side of the 'blob' and you can see what a loss that would make prior to max insolation over any open waters produced?

 That would be a game changer!
??? You're perhaps saying "that 'blob'" should/might be a recurrent pattern we ought look for and even date its occurrence in forthcoming seasons?

 :o :o
..
But I left school and grew my hair
They didn't understand
They wanted me to be respected as
A doctor or a lawyer man
But I had other plans..........

psymmo7

  • New ice
  • Posts: 81
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1969 on: May 31, 2016, 07:26:37 AM »
The ads.nipr.ac.jp server appears to be down (for 2 days now) is there any change of getting a 2016 update of the nice graph (the one at the top) of your June 18 2013 post where you reported first result and show agreement with other sites
« Last Edit: May 31, 2016, 08:01:05 AM by psymmo7 »

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6270
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 894
  • Likes Given: 87
« Last Edit: May 31, 2016, 11:21:07 AM by Jim Hunt »
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Wipneus

  • Citizen scientist
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4220
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 1025
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1971 on: May 31, 2016, 11:31:42 AM »
The ads.nipr.ac.jp server appears to be down (for 2 days now) is there any change of getting a 2016 update of the nice graph (the one at the top) of your June 18 2013 post where you reported first result and show agreement with other sites

The "June 18 2013" post is this one:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg7590.html#msg7590

That is the "area" plot, is added to the top post (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg7522.html#msg7522).

Direct link:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-area-all-cmpare.png
same but extent:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-extent-all-cmpare.png

In each the Jaxa data (calculated over the 14 regions) of 2016 is included.

Wipneus

  • Citizen scientist
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4220
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 1025
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1972 on: June 01, 2016, 07:31:53 AM »
A fairly high extent drop today:

Update 20160531.

Extent: -90.4 (-533k vs 2015, -989k vs 2014, -1347k vs 2013, -1150k vs 2012)
Area: -44.7 (-639k vs 2015, -723k vs 2014, -1251k vs 2013, -903k vs 2012)
 
The largest contributor tot the extent (and area as well) is Kara. Warm winds causing expanding open water.


Meirion

  • New ice
  • Posts: 59
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1973 on: June 01, 2016, 08:09:07 AM »
This is the CCI forecast for June 5 - no sign of let up

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1149
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1974 on: June 01, 2016, 09:04:58 AM »
A fairly high extent drop today:

Update 20160531.

Extent: -90.4 (-533k vs 2015, -989k vs 2014, -1347k vs 2013, -1150k vs 2012)
Area: -44.7 (-639k vs 2015, -723k vs 2014, -1251k vs 2013, -903k vs 2012)
 
The largest contributor tot the extent (and area as well) is Kara. Warm winds causing expanding open water.

MODIS confirms this. I have often pointed out that a look at the movement of floes shows expanding open water caused by movement rather than melting of ice. Now ice is melting, the ice edge retreats north while floes are moving south. I have marked a trackable "constellation" of floes on 26th and 31st of May. The previous preconditioning of the ice shows in the darker blue in these 7-2-1 band images.

JimboOmega

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 140
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1975 on: June 01, 2016, 09:26:29 PM »
A fairly high extent drop today:

Update 20160531.

Extent: -90.4 (-533k vs 2015, -989k vs 2014, -1347k vs 2013, -1150k vs 2012)
Area: -44.7 (-639k vs 2015, -723k vs 2014, -1251k vs 2013, -903k vs 2012)
 
The largest contributor tot the extent (and area as well) is Kara. Warm winds causing expanding open water.

Commented on this on the other thread, saw this title, thought I'd pop over.

When does this usually happen - the opening of the kara like this? Is it warm winds melting, or just pushing ice away and making a polynya?
« Last Edit: June 02, 2016, 03:38:30 AM by JimboOmega »

Wipneus

  • Citizen scientist
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4220
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 1025
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1976 on: June 02, 2016, 11:13:37 AM »
A fairly high extent drop today:

Update 20160531.

Extent: -90.4 (-533k vs 2015, -989k vs 2014, -1347k vs 2013, -1150k vs 2012)
Area: -44.7 (-639k vs 2015, -723k vs 2014, -1251k vs 2013, -903k vs 2012)
 
The largest contributor tot the extent (and area as well) is Kara. Warm winds causing expanding open water.

Commented on this on the other thread, saw this title, thought I'd pop over.

When does this usually happen - the opening of the kara like this? Is it warm winds melting, or just pushing ice away and making a polynya?

Jimbo,

The observations and discussions of the summers of 2013, 2014 and 2015 can still be read in this thread. I think that you would find that summers of Kara differ a lot, but most of the ice in Kara melts eventually in-situ. Before it is gone the ice can move a lot, creating and destroying open water.

Wipneus

  • Citizen scientist
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4220
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 1025
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1977 on: June 02, 2016, 11:19:11 AM »
Extent did drop less than area:

Update 20160601.

Extent: -29.6 (-483k vs 2015, -981k vs 2014, -1306k vs 2013, -1049k vs 2012)
Area: -71.7 (-641k vs 2015, -697k vs 2014, -1263k vs 2013, -859k vs 2012)
 
Much of the area loss was in the CAB region (-22k).

Extent loss was most in Chukchi (-14k), so let us look at that:

Wipneus

  • Citizen scientist
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4220
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 1025
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1978 on: June 02, 2016, 11:21:13 AM »
And an animation shows that the losses are not just today:

DoomInTheUK

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 221
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1979 on: June 02, 2016, 04:21:18 PM »
Wooo. Neven will be happy. That looks like clear water all the way along the coast.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1406
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 60
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1980 on: June 02, 2016, 05:15:45 PM »
Sorry Dr. Doom, but if one looks very closely there is an tiny "ice bridge" between the shore ice and the outer sea ice. So Neven has to wait a little while before he can enjoy the wine bottle :) I think it should be open water by tomorrow or at latest by sunday.

In any case, CCI_Reanalyzer suggests some decent southerlies in the CAA by staurday and sunday. It will be interesting to see whether there will be any cracks north of CAA islands.Southerlies shoul also emerge over Laptev so there is some good chance that the Laptev Bite will grow by weekend and beginning of next week.

Best, LMV

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2546
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 50
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1981 on: June 02, 2016, 05:33:58 PM »
On june 1 there is clearly a gap !


Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9518
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1337
  • Likes Given: 618
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1983 on: June 02, 2016, 10:44:26 PM »
So Neven has to wait a little while before he can enjoy the wine bottle :) I think it should be open water by tomorrow or at latest by sunday.

It's better for my blogging schedule if it takes a while longer. ;-)

Either way, I'm looking at the UB SIC map, as it's easier for me to compare to those of 2009 and 2011 when the American coast became ice-free in the first week of July.
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

Wipneus

  • Citizen scientist
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4220
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 1025
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1984 on: June 03, 2016, 07:53:21 AM »
Hmmm,

Quote
clear water all the way along the coast
and
Quote
coast became ice-free

I am not sure what the excitement is about, but there is substantial land fast ice along the coast.
Too much, IMO, to call it "ice free" and clear water all along".

There may be a passage (less than 15% ice) between CAA and Chukchi, is that it?

Wipneus

  • Citizen scientist
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4220
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 1025
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1985 on: June 03, 2016, 08:15:51 AM »
Continuing moderate extent decline today (the lead with 2012 extent shrinks over a century/day):

Update 20160602.

Extent: -40.2 (-476k vs 2015, -882k vs 2014, -1276k vs 2013, -1023k vs 2012)
Area: -71.6 (-710k vs 2015, -577k vs 2014, -1235k vs 2013, -935k vs 2012)

Lion's share is Baffin. extent dropped -38k, area -32k.

Area dropped more, Laptev -26k, CAB -21k.

In Baffin a combination of wind and high temperatures cause the loss of ice:

Images are scaled, not ideal, for the huge (vertical) size of the Baffin regional maps.

Wipneus

  • Citizen scientist
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4220
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 1025
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1986 on: June 03, 2016, 08:29:21 AM »
An animation of ESS and Laptev (exaggerated) sea ice concentration may show the intrusion of warm air and perhaps some rivers melting out.

Wipneus

  • Citizen scientist
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4220
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 1025
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1987 on: June 03, 2016, 09:07:20 AM »
Oh, melting (according to ADS-Jaxa AMSR2) within the ice pack seems to have finally started. Not a moment to soon not to be late. Now how much of the surface will be melting in the coming weeks?

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1988 on: June 03, 2016, 12:36:40 PM »
Yes Wipneus,
The Kolyma, the Indigirka and the Lena, all bursting out driven by land mass warming up to 30dC not very far from the Arctic shore.

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1989 on: June 03, 2016, 12:42:35 PM »
That Jaxa image spells June area cliff

Wipneus

  • Citizen scientist
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4220
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 1025
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1990 on: June 04, 2016, 09:06:29 AM »
Today area dropped big, extent is changing as before.
Update 20160603.

Extent: -52.4 (-521k vs 2015, -867k vs 2014, -1279k vs 2013, -1092k vs 2012)
Area: -139.4 (-821k vs 2015, -666k vs 2014, -1312k vs 2013, -1115k vs 2012)
 
Extent went down in Kara (-22k), Baffin (-20k), Greenland Sea (-15k) and Laptev (-14k). Extent in the CAB increased (+12k).

The drop in area is led by ESS (-63k), Laptev (-30k), Greenland Sea (-29k) and Kara (-25k). CAB area increased by +17k.

The big drops in ESS and Laptev can be safely attributed to high temperatures transported to the regio causing extensive surface melting and melt pools on the ice.


Wipneus

  • Citizen scientist
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4220
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 1025
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1991 on: June 04, 2016, 09:13:38 AM »
ADS-Jaxa surface melting has taken off.

Wipneus

  • Citizen scientist
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4220
    • View Profile
    • Arctische Pinguin
  • Liked: 1025
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1992 on: June 04, 2016, 09:22:58 AM »
A new crack closer by appears north of the Canadian Archipelago. Lots of darkening, but not much mobility in between the islands.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9818
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3589
  • Likes Given: 3943
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1993 on: June 04, 2016, 09:41:21 AM »
The ESS torching is amazing. and in the Beaufort, floes can be seen disintegrating and disappearing rapidly at the left edge of the gyre.

iceman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 285
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1994 on: June 04, 2016, 11:56:56 AM »
A new crack closer by appears north of the Canadian Archipelago.  ....

This development looks potentially significant for volume, as sustained southwesterly winds will push the ice toward the seas north of Greenland - along with above-normal temperatures.

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1995 on: June 04, 2016, 12:25:40 PM »
Yeah,
Coronation Gulf stands out. MODIS shows it today covered with melt water. Temps head for +10dC next week. The usual Dolphin and Union Strait polynia (a tide phenomenon lasting almost through winter) will grow fast.

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1149
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1996 on: June 04, 2016, 01:55:57 PM »
observations and forecast for Kugluktuk can be seen here https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-16_metric_e.html in addition to the high temperatures werther points out, the forcast is also for rain today and next week.

Rob Dekker

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2386
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 119
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1997 on: June 05, 2016, 07:35:36 AM »
Wipneus, your animation of that cracking event north of the CAA is remarkable :

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=382.0;attach=30318

I agree with "oren" that the disintegration of the flows in the Beaufort are spectacular.
Could you produce a similar 7 day animated gif but this time for the entire Beaufort ?
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1149
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1998 on: June 05, 2016, 10:03:23 AM »
The ESS torching is amazing. and in the Beaufort, floes can be seen disintegrating and disappearing rapidly at the left edge of the gyre.
AMSR images can "disappear " ice which later reappears, Wipneus has pointed this out before. I don't know whether this is due to low resolution or changes in contrast.
Looking at the floe which I have tracked up to the 27.5. before, this time in 3-6-7 bands to distinguish ice from clouds which keep getting in the way, the pieces into which it broke on the 26th
are still present on the 4.6.  The original 3 have become 5 and some smaller pieces which I have not attempted to follow.
I can't make this into an animation so you have to bear with my crude marking of screen shots

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1149
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #1999 on: June 05, 2016, 10:12:22 AM »
had to split into two posts to get around limitation on pictures

I have added Fig4 from https://www.arcus.org/files/page/documents/25543/sio_2016_haas_preseason_contribution.pdf
to give an indication of thickness of ice. The floes marked by me were not measured by these flight tracks but the one north of them shows up as more than 4m!
The IR (band31) image of the 22.4. indicated I think that the floes I am tracking are thinner than the 4m floe but thicker (because colder) than the thin more recent infill shown in the track as 0.5m (orange)
« Last Edit: June 05, 2016, 10:17:50 AM by Andreas T »