The polynya now is less than 200 km from the NP, and likely only 100-150km from combining with the area of broken ice pack around the NP. Weather is turning colder, but the prevailing winds will continue to push water from east into the pack and toward the pole. The current forecast shows a moderate LP cell will briefly push ice toward the Fram, but then as a HP cell sits over the areas in the CAB toward the East Siberian, the wind will again push into the pack.
Over the next weeK: Will the polynya compact away? Will the area around the NP refreeze before the two weak areas in the pack combine? Or will the edge of the pack recede enough to combine with the polynya, and keep shifting toward the NP? Conservatively we should expect not a lot of change from the current status, until refreezing really takes over.
But the pack is especially mobile, and shifting a lot right now (at the end of the melt season). The movement over the last couple of weeks has been striking. Even out along 90W and 85N, there are some big cracks in the pack continuing to open up and widening (as can be seen in the satellite images).
The melt this year has certainly been interesting, and the season is going to end that way.