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Author Topic: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation  (Read 1341034 times)

icy voyeur

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2600 on: August 20, 2016, 08:20:32 AM »
You've stirred up quite a hornets nest Neven, but it had to be done and I'm glad you did.

I have no bona fides to pontificate, other than about 4 decades as a scientist. That's really neither here nor there. Nevertheless, FWIW, some have presented restrained concerns, others rather bombastic prognostications of doom. The former fit to my experience. The latter, remind me of childish ego driven stupidity. It's hard to discount a lifetime of experience. Ultimately, thanks Neven.

6roucho

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2601 on: August 20, 2016, 08:38:20 AM »
Self-aggrandising posts are fine if they're brief. Posts that make personal criticisms tend to act as low-pressure cannons.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2602 on: August 20, 2016, 09:36:20 AM »
BREAKING NEWS: Uni Hamburg is releasing AMSR2 sea ice concentration data from 2012. August 1-13 until now.

The bad news is that many of my code and data structures are not expecting this, graphs will be looking strange and data files will contain errors.

Of course I will correct this a.s.a.p. but unfortunately it will take time, there are more things to do here.

budmantis

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2603 on: August 20, 2016, 09:42:47 AM »
Self-aggrandising posts are fine if they're brief.

I agree but posts of that kind are seldom short.

Neven

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2604 on: August 20, 2016, 10:04:20 AM »
Last night while trying to get to sleep, I realized that I need to apologize to bbr2314.

bbr2314, I apologize for the attack yesterday evening. I was in a foul mood and it was actually magnamentis' comment that got my hackles up, not anything you did. You were banned for a month (something I don't enjoy doing) and it's not fair for me to bring up the reasons for that again, especially in that wording. You can go overboard all you like and walk that edge. I mean the Arctic IS a mess, as it has been for years. But you need to accept that people will push back against that (and they do so politely the first few times, in general, at least on this forum).

As for magnamentis: You, sir, have a very big ego and a Galileo-complex that reminds me of other corners of the Internet. Others have explained why this is not useful. I apologize for being so blunt.

My final apologies go to Wipneus for messing up this thread. It seems there is more important news:

BREAKING NEWS: Uni Hamburg is releasing AMSR2 sea ice concentration data from 2012. August 1-13 until now.

The bad news is that many of my code and data structures are not expecting this, graphs will be looking strange and data files will contain errors.

Of course I will correct this a.s.a.p. but unfortunately it will take time, there are more things to do here.

Take your time, Wip, looking forward to the improved comparison.

My final apologies
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

iceman

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2605 on: August 20, 2016, 02:18:17 PM »
In the midst of a storm, a clearing of the air

seaicesailor

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2606 on: August 20, 2016, 03:23:39 PM »
Time for a nice break, while Wipneus rewires his amazing processing machine, with some ADS NIPR AMSR2 melt extent images.
Almost a month ago a line of enhanced melt was identified, starting near Wrangel Island all across the Chukchi sea ice and into the CAB.
Below a comparison between July 30 when the line was already clear, and August 19. After 20 days of strong eastward drift (easily 300 - 400 km) the line keeps dividing a region of less melting at its west side, and more melting or just open water at its east side. It seems that whatever ice crosses that line is quickly gone. A vast region of 300 - 400 km wide open ocean can be seen east of the line.
I call this a melt front. It can be casual, but coincidence rarely happens.
I speculate that it is caused by warmer saltier water that either has been accumulating from Bering inflow since spring, or has been upwelling from a current well under the surface of the ocean.
I have been reviewing AMSR Bremen images of past years, and this area of enhanced melting may be present in many of the years, so I am not claiming that this is something particularly new in 2016, but it is really impressive.
If this drift keeps going on, what will be of the remaining ice west of the front?

Nick_Naylor

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2607 on: August 20, 2016, 03:34:40 PM »
Time for a nice break, while Wipneus rewires his amazing processing machine . . .

Nice visual - I imagine it looks like this:

seaicesailor

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2608 on: August 20, 2016, 03:38:07 PM »

Nice visual - I imagine it looks like this:
Lol
I would say is more like this :-)

Bill Fothergill

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2609 on: August 20, 2016, 03:46:48 PM »
Time for a nice break, while Wipneus rewires his amazing processing machine . . .

Nice visual - I imagine it looks like this:

Nick, you need to be Ultra cautious about posting any similar images.   ;)

Juan C. García

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2610 on: August 20, 2016, 03:58:43 PM »

Nice visual - I imagine it looks like this:
Lol
I would say is more like this :-)

Sorry for losing the topic, but I couldn´t help it!
It has to look like this!!!   ;)

Edit:
I went to study English Literature at Canada on 1983 and I enrolled on a course that was named "Films as a Social Criticism". My final essay was about "Modern Times", with Charles Chaplin and in a way, before this course, I was not able to see that this movie starts criticising the explotation of workers by the industrial revolution, at the same time that was defending the pantomime, the ability of people to interpret a movie with their own experience, in a time when sound movies (more direct on their meaning) were a new reality.
I see some similarities with what we are doing on this Forum, defending our points of view in which we forecast a real danger to humanity in the short term, while UN and government countries are still talking about 2050 or 2100, letting that the fossil fuel industry continues doing "business as usual".

So, the similarity is not just an image, it has a profound meaning, at least to me: Social criticism and the need to individual interpretation of the true, in a time that there is a real environmental danger.
;)
« Last Edit: August 20, 2016, 05:24:12 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Jim Pettit

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2611 on: August 20, 2016, 04:13:31 PM »
Do this:


Et Voila! You won't be able to see their comments any more. However, keep a couple of things in mind:

  • Other members who haven't put members you have on your ignore list onto their own ignore lists may still quote them, in which case you'll still see their posts;
  • More importantly, while a particular person may now be off your lawn (so to speak), they're still around posting comments, so most of the rest of the world will hear from them. If your goal is to just get them out of your hair, then by all means ignore them. But if you want to see the overall level of discourse here raised, there are better means than simply ignoring a member

(My own apologies for the off-topic stuff.)

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2612 on: August 20, 2016, 04:21:27 PM »
  :) :) :) :)

Data is updated continuously. Now 2012 data available for August 1-17.

Attached an interim graph for the total extent with both SSMIS and AMSR2 data plotted (the line with a color slightly darker yellow/orange).

As expected from 2013/2014 comparison the AMSR2 values are below that of SSMIS, but better than I hoped for.
On average the difference is -146k within a range from +17k to -272k. The smoothness of the AMSR2 curve compared with SSMIS is striking.

Click the picture for a bigger image.

johnm33

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2613 on: August 20, 2016, 04:54:24 PM »
I had to take a look


seaicesailor

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2614 on: August 20, 2016, 05:16:56 PM »
I had to take a look
...
The wedge coming in from ESS also seems to follow a feature of the bathimetry. Although in that case the winds have been pushing along the line, not transversally.

Add the well-established Spitsbergen current along the Atlantic shelf to the picture.
This goes well above my head, it is really impressive stuff. Thanks for bringing this up Johnm33

Shared Humanity

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2615 on: August 20, 2016, 05:23:48 PM »
I have three on my ignore list. I will occasionally click to see their comment and have always been reminded why I have put them there.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2616 on: August 20, 2016, 05:49:51 PM »
Area the differences between SSMIS and AMSR2 are a bit bigger. On average -334k in a range from -224k to -463k.

Attached the interim area graph, the slightly darker orange line is the new 2012 AMSR2 data. Click for a bigger size.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2617 on: August 20, 2016, 05:53:17 PM »
And a side-by-side animation of the Arctic Basin 2012-2016.

Click to start.

Juan C. García

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2618 on: August 20, 2016, 06:03:50 PM »
And a side-by-side animation of the Arctic Basin 2012-2016.

Click to start.

BREAKING NEWS: Uni Hamburg is releasing AMSR2 sea ice concentration data from 2012. August 1-13 until now.

The bad news is that many of my code and data structures are not expecting this, graphs will be looking strange and data files will contain errors.

Of course I will correct this a.s.a.p. but unfortunately it will take time, there are more things to do here.


Great animation Wipneus and thanks for all these work.
Are this animation based on the new Uni Hamburg data?
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2619 on: August 20, 2016, 06:29:41 PM »

Great animation Wipneus and thanks for all these work.
Are this animation based on the new Uni Hamburg data?

Yes, until today the data started at 1 Jan 2013. Now I have 1-19 August 2012 as well, this is used for the (2012 side) of the animation.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2620 on: August 20, 2016, 06:36:55 PM »
Wonderful animation Wipneus!

It clearly shows the stark difference between the 2012 and 2016 melt seasons. While area for 2016 has hung tight with 2012, the SIE trends have diverged dramatically. This animation clearly shows the difference but it also suggests this divergence of SIE will continue and perhaps become even more pronounced. The 2012 animation shows the ice compacting while the 2016 clearly shows the ice continuing to disperse across the Arctic Ocean. It is simply too late for this dispersion to reverse and the near term weather forecasts of more Arctic lows (They don't need to be GAC's.) will only accelerate the spread of ice.


Neven....I love this blog!
« Last Edit: August 20, 2016, 06:42:29 PM by Shared Humanity »

icy voyeur

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2621 on: August 20, 2016, 07:11:32 PM »
And a side-by-side animation of the Arctic Basin 2012-2016.

That big chunk off NE Greenland looks to have split off in the last frames.
I'd say it's poised to run out the Fram if weather patterns change. Hope I'm reading that wrong.

Iceismylife

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2622 on: August 20, 2016, 07:21:36 PM »
And a side-by-side animation of the Arctic Basin 2012-2016.

Click to start.
Is it just my imagination or can I see clouds moving in the animation? 

effbeh

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2623 on: August 20, 2016, 08:03:05 PM »
And a side-by-side animation of the Arctic Basin 2012-2016.

Click to start.

That doesn't look good at all for 2016.  Ice is in such a bad shape that 2012 almost looks good in comparison.


seaicesailor

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2624 on: August 20, 2016, 08:17:04 PM »
Wonderful animation Wipneus!

It clearly shows the stark difference between the 2012 and 2016 melt seasons. While area for 2016 has hung tight with 2012, the SIE trends have diverged dramatically. This animation clearly shows the difference but it also suggests this divergence of SIE will continue and perhaps become even more pronounced. The 2012 animation shows the ice compacting while the 2016 clearly shows the ice continuing to disperse across the Arctic Ocean. It is simply too late for this dispersion to reverse and the near term weather forecasts of more Arctic lows (They don't need to be GAC's.) will only accelerate the spread of ice.


Neven....I love this blog!
Note that the pack has been inflated like a globe and yet extent keeps falling. The coming storm might be much worse since it is not placed as central.
2 cm/day plus lateral melting = 1 m easily before end of september
Quoting Frivolouz, all Pacific side ice south of 80N is going to melt.

Nightvid Cole

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2625 on: August 20, 2016, 08:48:34 PM »
The "regional graphs" on the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs page are all messed up :(

TerryM

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2626 on: August 20, 2016, 09:45:24 PM »
And a side-by-side animation of the Arctic Basin 2012-2016.

Click to start.
Just another eye opening animation by the master!
Seriously, all comparisons between this year and 2012 are a great help for those of us whose memories have faded somewhat, as well as those who missed the earlier season.
I'm unclear as to whether your 2012 data availability is limited to these 19 days, or if this is just the data that you have processed so far?
 Having 2012 from August 1 through to the final melt would of course be awesome.
Terry

Nick_Naylor

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2627 on: August 20, 2016, 11:14:48 PM »
And a side-by-side animation of the Arctic Basin 2012-2016.

Click to start.

Intuitively, 2016's dispersed ice looks more vulnerable than 2012's - especially in the presence of storms. In low-concentration areas, I would expect any bottom melt that might occur to have a reduced impact on surrounding SST's and salinity as well.

Does this make sense?

bbr2314

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2628 on: August 20, 2016, 11:18:53 PM »
And a side-by-side animation of the Arctic Basin 2012-2016.

Click to start.

Intuitively, 2016's dispersed ice looks more vulnerable than 2012's - especially in the presence of storms. In low-concentration areas, I would expect any bottom melt that might occur to have a reduced impact on surrounding SST's and salinity as well.

Does this make sense?

I think you hit the nail on the head.

While 2016 certainly has higher extent than 2012, most all of it is total garbage, and I would assert that "stable" (i.e., compact-able) area this year is lower than in 2012.

The past few days of data have been very contaminated by clouds and that should continue until the next GAC clears up... afterwards, models now show a huge heat dome building over almost the entire Arctic, with a 1030+ HP. When that happens, I expect we will see numbers drop substantially as the damage becomes fully apparent (and compaction/etc continue).

While my prediction of sub-1M KM2 this year may be in jeopardy, I think sub-2M KM2 is all but a lock... again, could be wrong, but the apples to apples comparison looks very bleak and supportive of sustained (high) melt momentum through early September...

seaicesailor

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2629 on: August 21, 2016, 01:02:49 AM »
And a side-by-side animation of the Arctic Basin 2012-2016.

Click to start.

Intuitively, 2016's dispersed ice looks more vulnerable than 2012's - especially in the presence of storms. In low-concentration areas, I would expect any bottom melt that might occur to have a reduced impact on surrounding SST's and salinity as well.

Does this make sense?
Makes a lot of sense. However note the amount of low concentration inside the pack that may refreeze sooner for the same reason: been close all summer long, no easy reach of ocean heat over there.
There is a nice post over the americanwx of what can happen with area in the next ten days, a race between peripheral ice melting out and refreezing within the pack.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48618-arctic-sea-ice-extent-area-and-volume/?page=2#comment-4211064

However extent-wise should keep falling further.
Sorry for being OT
« Last Edit: August 21, 2016, 01:08:43 AM by seaicesailor »

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2630 on: August 21, 2016, 02:22:40 AM »

Makes a lot of sense. However note the amount of low concentration inside the pack that may refreeze sooner for the same reason: been close all summer long, no easy reach of ocean heat over there.


Ocean heat is just a couple of hundred meters beneath the polar ice. The question really is is the pack broken up enough to allow that water to be pulled to the surface by these storms? The combination of intense low pressure, broken ice and perhaps warmer than normal intermediate water may create conditions where it doesn't refreeze.

https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/07/20/follow-the-water-arctic-ocean-flywheels/

The young ice may also be more briny than expected, accelerating any breakdown of the Halocline.

Adam Ash

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2631 on: August 21, 2016, 06:04:16 AM »
The inverse of sea ice area, of course, is sea water area.  I imagine that sea ice area has climatic influences which are mostly related to the sea ice - the interaction with climate being fairly mellow, while sea water area has influences on the local and global climate. 

With the comparatively fragmented sea ice conditions this year, are we not seeing significantly more sea water surface exposed, to do to climate what sea water surface in the Arctic will do?  In the end it doesn't matter if there are a few blocks of ice bobbing around up there, its the sea water surface area spread over the whole Arctic basin from the Pole south which will have the major impact on global thermodynamic cycles. Won't it?

So the ice conditions in 2012 seemed to keep a cap on the ocean by being fairly cohesive continuous cover, while 2016 there may be a similar area of ice, but it is vastly more dispersed and there is a lot more open water everywhere in direct contact with the atmosphere.

This cannot be good.


Shared Humanity

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2632 on: August 21, 2016, 06:05:09 AM »


While my prediction of sub-1M KM2 this year may be in jeopardy, I think sub-2M KM2 is all but a lock... again, could be wrong....

A master of the understatement.

Rob Dekker

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2633 on: August 21, 2016, 07:52:51 AM »
BREAKING NEWS: Uni Hamburg is releasing AMSR2 sea ice concentration data from 2012. August 1-13 until now.

The bad news is that many of my code and data structures are not expecting this, graphs will be looking strange and data files will contain errors.

Of course I will correct this a.s.a.p. but unfortunately it will take time, there are more things to do here.

Thanks for that note Wipneus.
I would expect your 2012 numbers to be messed-up with this switch.
But instead it seems to be that 2012 numbers are fine, but other years (like 2015) are affected (see here for example Arctic Basin's "area" numbers) :



Does that make any sense ?
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2634 on: August 21, 2016, 08:43:45 AM »
And a side-by-side animation of the Arctic Basin 2012-2016.

Click to start.
Just another eye opening animation by the master!
Seriously, all comparisons between this year and 2012 are a great help for those of us whose memories have faded somewhat, as well as those who missed the earlier season.
I'm unclear as to whether your 2012 data availability is limited to these 19 days, or if this is just the data that you have processed so far?
 Having 2012 from August 1 through to the final melt would of course be awesome.
Terry

Terry,

We have at this moment August 1-29 2012 in, a new day is added at a rate of about one per 1.5 hour.  That is 16 each day, one month takes two days, end of 2012 will be in 8 days from now.
It is my hope that 2013 and 2014 will also be (re)processed, the earlier data is missing some refining that was later added. That would take a couple of months.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2635 on: August 21, 2016, 08:52:51 AM »
The "regional graphs" on the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs page are all messed up :(

Yes, each of the graphics needs some work. My real work is packing books and taking furniture apart (moving next weekend), the sea ice work has to be done in the breaks.

Wipneus

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2636 on: August 21, 2016, 09:33:11 AM »
Data from 2012-08-25 is missing. Attached are working regional extent and area plots, darker orange line is the new AMSR2 data.

Neven

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2637 on: August 21, 2016, 10:20:47 AM »
Thanks for the reprocessing work, Wipneus. I wish I was there to help you pack some books (that's something I can do).
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Acts5v29

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2638 on: August 21, 2016, 10:50:44 AM »


So the ice conditions in 2012 seemed to keep a cap on the ocean by being fairly cohesive continuous cover, while 2016 there may be a similar area of ice, but it is vastly more dispersed and there is a lot more open water everywhere in direct contact with the atmosphere.

This cannot be good.

excellent deduction - as much as the measurements are interesting, these insights help us perceive what lies ahead.

Thawing Thunder

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2639 on: August 21, 2016, 10:57:10 AM »
What strucks me is the continuing export amd melt in the atlantic. At first sight ice seems to have a stable shoreline, but is has not! It's getting pushed by the storms into the atlantic big time ... That's why the dispersion in the CAB leads to less and less ice even without melt near the pole. The atlantic is doing the dirty work.
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Metamemesis

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2640 on: August 21, 2016, 11:40:13 AM »
What strucks me is the continuing export amd melt in the atlantic. At first sight ice seems to have a stable shoreline, but is has not! It's getting pushed by the storms into the atlantic big time ... That's why the dispersion in the CAB leads to less and less ice even without melt near the pole. The atlantic is doing the dirty work.

I agree for the most part, but it's probably best to put comments like this in the main 2016 Melting Season thread, so that they'll be seen there and to avoid derailing this thread.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2641 on: August 21, 2016, 11:59:23 AM »
Metamemesis, that certainly could be considered, but it is a direct comment, like many others, to Wipneus's animation (I just didn't quote him once more to keep it short). That's why it's here.
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2642 on: August 21, 2016, 12:13:35 PM »
Last date is now 2012-09-01.

With the compactness graph, I get a bit in trouble with the choice of colors. I settled for a "tan" colored line for the 2012 AMSR2 data.
BTW, have we noticed how extremely low the compactness is compared with all years?

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2643 on: August 21, 2016, 01:23:13 PM »
On your compactness graph, Wipneus...
It reflects what can be seen on MODIS. Compactness shot up about this time of August in '12, after the demise of the entire rubble area on the Bering side. What was left was, compared to the present situation, a quite large area of high concentration ice.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2644 on: August 21, 2016, 03:25:02 PM »
Ready to restart the daily report. Comparison for the first time with 2012 Uni Hamburg AMSR2 3.125 km data.

Update 20160820.

Extent: +1.0 (-198k vs 2015, -741k vs 2014, -777k vs 2013, +740k vs 2012)
Area: +19.5 (-360k vs 2015, -1138k vs 2014, -1152k vs 2013, +364k vs 2012)
 
You will find the updated graphs in the top post

CAA regional extent declined -18k. Other regions had only small changes.

Regional area in the CAB increased: +31k. The Laptev regions went the other way: -23k.

Attached the delta map of the Beaufort-Chukchi-ESS corner. Although the blue's dominate here, a string of reds make a detachment of the Wrangle ice from the main pack come closer.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2645 on: August 21, 2016, 03:31:03 PM »
And an animation of the ice between Greenland and the Pole. There seem to be hints of a connection of the low concentration ice in the "Barents Bite" to the NE tip of Greenland.

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2646 on: August 21, 2016, 07:43:51 PM »
Do the storms somehow made not only bad things but also good, for example more heat going up in the space and because of low temperatures now a point with refreeze or is this just a misscalculation somehow ?

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2647 on: August 22, 2016, 07:53:18 AM »
And an animation of the ice between Greenland and the Pole. There seem to be hints of a connection of the low concentration ice in the "Barents Bite" to the NE tip of Greenland.
Can we hazard a guess as to the practical significance of such a thing?

Does it mean another storm is brewing for instance??
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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2648 on: August 22, 2016, 10:01:18 AM »
Presumably it means that the band of high concentration ice going up to the Laptev Sea part of the ice pack could potentially split off from the main part of the ice pack that lies off the Canadian Arctic coast and that, even more speculatively, the ice pack could therefore potentially split into two large pieces.

If I am correctly interpreting what Wipneus wrote then there could be a split point at the North-East tip of Greenland. It would be the lower one of the two potential split points shown in the figure.

Note: this is just playing around - not an actual prediction and not to be taken too seriously. In my view either split might or might not happen and it depends on what the weather brings over the next couple of weeks.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2016, 10:20:08 AM by slow wing »

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Re: Home brew AMSR2 extent & area calculation
« Reply #2649 on: August 22, 2016, 11:13:33 AM »
   .... There seem to be hints of a connection of the low concentration ice in the "Barents Bite" to the NE tip of Greenland.
Presumably it means that the band of high concentration ice going up to the Laptev Sea part of the ice pack could potentially split off from the main part of the ice pack that lies off the Canadian Arctic coast ....

The weak zone will be moving steadily towards Svalbard for the next week or longer.  So even short of an outright split, it's likely to increase Fram Strait export.  Note Lodger's comment from the blog:
    "With the current separation of the pack at the Lavtev Bight (from 45E to 135E), there is a real risk that the transpolar drift pushes ALL of the multiyear sea ice from the European sector out of the central Arctic via Fram Straight before the next melt season."
I would be surprised if it's that extreme, but directionally it's clearly bad for volume loss.