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gerontocrat

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COP27
« on: August 02, 2022, 04:40:44 PM »
I thought of naming this thread "It's too late".

I smell the stink of the dead hand of the oil majors.....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/01/african-nations-set-to-make-the-case-for-big-rise-in-fossil-fuel-output
African nations expected to make case for big rise in fossil fuel output

Exclusive: leaders expected to say at Cop27 they need access to their oil and gas reserves despite effect on global heating



African countries are moving towards a common position that they need to expand fossil fuel production to meet their energy needs. Photograph: Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP/Getty Images
Quote
Leaders of African countries are likely to use the next UN climate summit in November to push for massive new investment in fossil fuels in Africa, according to documents seen by the Guardian.

New exploration for gas, and the exploitation of Africa’s vast reserves of oil, would make it close to impossible for the world to limit global heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

However, soaring gas prices have made the prospect of African supplies even more attractive, and developed countries, including EU members, have indicated they would support such developments in the current gas shortage.

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The Guardian has seen a technical document prepared by the African Union, comprising most of Africa’s states, for the “second extraordinary session of the specialised technical committee on transport, transcontinental and interregional infrastructure and energy committee”, a meeting of energy ministers that took place by video conference from 14 to 16 June.

The five-page document, and accompanying 25-page explanation, indicates that many African countries favour a common position that would inform their negotiating stance at the Cop27 UN climate summit, scheduled for this November in Egypt, which would entail pushing for an expansion of fossil fuel production across the continent.

The document states: “In the short to medium term, fossil fuels, especially natural gas will have to play a crucial role in expanding modern energy access in addition to accelerating the uptake of renewables.”

Member states of the African Union will meet again, in Addis Ababa, this week to confirm the stance to be taken. They are expected to argue that Africa must be allowed to benefit from its fossil fuel reserves, as rich countries already have done, and that developed countries by contrast must take the lead on sharp cuts to their emissions.

However, environmental campaigners from across the continent fear that the exploitation of gas and oil in Africa would bust global climate targets, prevent the development of renewable energy in Africa, and instead of being used for the benefit of ordinary people, would enrich multinational corporations, investors and the elite in some countries.

Mohamed Adow, the director of the thinktank Power Shift Africa, said it would be a mistake for Africa to opt for fossil fuels instead of moving straight to renewable energy. “Africa is blessed with abundant renewable energy, in sun and wind. Africa should not be shackled to expensive fossil fuels for decades,” he said.

Lorraine Chiponda, the coordinator of the Africa Coal Network, said: “The prospect that African leaders are presenting and pushing for gas developments and investment is overwhelming and reckless given the climate impacts that threaten the lives of millions of people in Africa having seen worsening droughts and hunger, recurring floods and cyclones. Fossil fuel projects have neither solved energy poverty in Africa where 600 million people still live in energy poverty nor brought any socio-economic justice to African people.”

The International Energy Agency warned last year that no new fossil fuel developments could take place if the world was to stay within 1.5C of pre-industrial levels. Recent extreme weather, including heatwaves and wildfires in Europe and North America, has intensified fears that the climate crisis is progressing faster than had been anticipated.

African countries are also expected to be among the most damaged by the impacts of the climate crisis. Drought is already afflicting a large swathe of the Horn of Africa at present, and millions of people are “marching toward starvation”, the World Food Programme has warned.

But the soaring price of gas, driven by war in Ukraine and the recovery from the Covid pandemic, has spurred many countries to see a potential bonanza in the unexploited reserves remaining in Africa. Research by the Guardian earlier this year revealed scores of “carbon bombs” – fossil fuel reserves that if exploited could put the global climate targets well out of reach.

Fatima Ahouli, regional coordinator of Climate Action Network Arab World, said leaders seeking new fossil fuel exploitation were contributing to a new form of colonialism.

“Calling for more and new exploitation of fossil fuels in Africa is driven by the same hungry countries who only see Africa as a goldmine,” she said.

Gas in Africa is set to become of the flashpoints of the Cop27 climate talks. The EU has indicated it would support the production of gas in Africa, as it urgently seeks new sources of gas following Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent threats to gas exports from Russia.

Mary Robinson, the chair of the Elders group of former statespeople and high-ranking business leaders, has also weighed in on the issue, controversially telling the Guardian earlier this year that African countries must be allowed to use their gas, though she insists it must be for domestic use, for electricity and as a clean cooking fuel, rather than being exported to the EU.

About 580 million people in Africa still lack access to electricity and modern energy.

Adow said exploiting gas in Africa would merely lock countries into a high-carbon future. He called for rich countries to make funds and support available for poorer countries to move to renewable energy instead. “There is plenty of opportunity for renewable energy in Africa, but countries need help to construct the infrastructure.

The Guardian has approached the African Union for comment.
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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2022, 07:05:41 PM »
Well that is a twist. My initial impression was that this round was going to be about the practical money side of climate mitigation so a pointless discussion but luckily there is common ground.  ::)

Quote
However, soaring gas prices have made the prospect of African supplies even more attractive, and developed countries, including EU members, have indicated they would support such developments in the current gas shortage.

Nice turn on COP26 promises... So nice to see that all the idiots can agree on is destroying the world some more.
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NeilT

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Re: COP27
« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2022, 08:37:51 PM »
If they encourage Africa to extract their own gas and liquefy it, then the EU will be able to buy their excess.  Removing the risk of Russia.

When it comes down to brass tacks, politics is always the underpinning foundation.   Not common sense.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2022, 08:58:28 PM »
Yes and might makes right but we are also seriously running out of time. We need to decrease FF use before 2025. We do not actually have the luxury to do this, we are also living beyond our means.

How much do we hate our (grand) kids? 
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Freegrass

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Re: COP27
« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2022, 09:53:18 PM »
Nice turn on COP26 promises... So nice to see that all the idiots can agree on is destroying the world some more.
So funny people call me insane... I guess that's because they're incapable of understanding their own insanity...
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

gerontocrat

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Re: COP27
« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2022, 05:12:08 PM »
When the respected journal "Nature Climate Change" publishes a letter from Scientists calling for Civil Disobedience then .............. ?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/29/scientists-call-on-colleagues-to-protest-climate-crisis-with-civil-disobedience
Scientists call on colleagues to protest climate crisis with civil disobedience

An article in the Nature Climate Change journal argues that non-violent direct action taken by experts is effective

Scientists for Extinction Rebellion demonstrate outside the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy in London. Photograph: Tolga Akmen/AFP/Getty Images
Quote
Scientists should commit acts of civil disobedience to show the public how seriously they regard the threat posed by the climate crisis, a group of leading scientists has argued.

“Civil disobedience by scientists has the potential to cut through the myriad complexities and confusion surrounding the climate crisis,” the researchers wrote in an article, published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change on Monday.

“When those with expertise and knowledge are willing to convey their concerns in a more uncompromising manner … this affords them particular effectiveness as a communicative act. This is the insight of Greta Thunberg when she calls on us to ‘act as you would in a crisis’.”

In recent months, scientists have shown themselves increasingly willing to take part in direct actions to bring attention to the climate crisis. A “scientists rebellion” mobilised more than 1,000 scientists in 25 countries in April, while in the UK a number of scientists were arrested for gluing scientific papers – and their hands – on to the glass facade of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.

The article was jointly written by five climate scientists: Stuart Capstick, Aaron Thierry, Emily Cox, Steve Westlake and Julia K. Steinberger. A sixth byline was taken by Oscar Berglund, a political scientist at the University of Bristol who studies civil disobedience and social movements.

A note appended to the article disclosed that all the authors “have participated in, and offered support to, groups carrying out civil disobedience to press for climate action”.

Berglund said: “What we say in the article is that getting involved in this kind of thing can actually add weight to the message that this is a crisis; that these are decent people who know more than anybody else about how deep in the shit we are, and are taking this kind of action – non-violent direct action, civil disobedience.

We have a kind of what we call epistemic authority here: people listen to what we are saying, as scientists, and it becomes a way of showing how serious the situation is, that we see ourselves forced to go to these lengths.

The article conceded that by taking political action, scientists will invite the criticism that they have abandoned their impartiality. However, it added that readers must ask themselves whether science’s “traditional modes of research and communication” are provoking a response from decision-makers that meets the enormity of the crisis.

It said: “The widespread notion that sober presentation of evidence by an ‘honest broker’ to those with power will accomplish the best interests of populations is itself not a neutral perspective on the world; it is instead conveniently unthreatening to the status quo and often rather naive.

“In addition to documenting the climate crisis in ever greater detail, we are obliged to consider how we might act in new ways to help bring about a necessary and urgent transformation.

In the meantime, we have long since arrived at the point at which civil disobedience by scientists has become justified.”

N.B. The new legislation on Public Order from the UK Government
Quote
The Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Act increased the sentences available for offenders convicted of carrying out disruptive acts and police had more flexibility in the way that they managed protests, the spokeswoman added.

The public order bill “will give police pre-emptive powers to prevent guerrilla tactics” and “we will continue to ensure the police have the powers that they need”.
Spokesperson of UK Government
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NeilT

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Re: COP27
« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2022, 08:19:23 PM »
N.B. The new legislation on Public Order from the UK Government
Quote
The Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Act increased the sentences available for offenders convicted of carrying out disruptive acts and police had more flexibility in the way that they managed protests, the spokeswoman added.

The public order bill “will give police pre-emptive powers to prevent guerrilla tactics” and “we will continue to ensure the police have the powers that they need”.
Spokesperson of UK Government

For better or worse we live in a democracy.  If the majority don't believe, or don't trust, the science; then the minority have no right to try and force the decision by disruptive practise.

If they government did anything else, they would not be doing their job.

I don't like the end result, but I do like the fact that we live in a democracy.  Even if it can be really inconvenient sometimes.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #7 on: September 06, 2022, 11:00:13 AM »
'Climate justice' a priority at Egypt’s Cop27 summit

The UN's Cop27 summit will be a chance to “integrate the concept of climate justice” as developing countries suffer the consequences of environmental change largely created by the developed world, a senior Egyptian official has said.

“This climate injustice is evident and can be seen by everybody,” said ambassador Wael Aboulmagd, special representative of the Cop27 president, at the American University in Cairo (AUC) on Monday.

...

The pact, signed by 196 countries, set a goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Egyptian officials said Cop27 would be a “Cop for action” and emphasised the need to make pledges a reality, including an unfulfilled promise made by developed countries to mobilise $100 billion annually in climate finance.

and more:
https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/egypt/2022/09/06/climate-justice-a-priority-at-egypts-cop27-summit/

I doubt it will be more succesfull then last round.
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I’M IN LOVE WITH A RAGER

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Re: COP27
« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2022, 04:22:33 PM »
At least transitioning this attempt’s focus to a nebulous ideological debate removes the pressure to achieve anything with material consequences in regards to reigning in AGW...

kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #9 on: September 07, 2022, 09:00:55 AM »
African leaders blast European no-shows at climate adaptation summit

Presidents of Senegal, DRC and Ghana travelled to Rotterdam to talk about adapting to climate change. Only one European leader was there to meet them

African leaders have criticised their European counterparts for missing a summit in Rotterdam on how Africa can adapt to climate change.

While three African presidents flew to the Netherlands for the Africa Adaptation Summit on Monday, only Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte was there to meet with them.

Rich countries have unmet promises to financially support poorer countries in boosting climate resilience.

Senegal’s president Macky Sall said: “I cannot help but note, with some bitterness, the absence of leaders from the industrial world. I think if we made the effort to leave Africa to come to Rotterdam, it would be easier for the Europeans and others to be here.”

...

In Rotterdam, the European Commission’s climate lead Frans Timmermans said that many European citizens would not be persuaded by the “moral point that those suffering the most consequences are not responsible for creating the crisis”.

He said: “Let’s be frank, many of our citizens in Europe will not buy this argument today because their worries are linked to their own existence in this energy crisis, in this food crisis, in this inflation crisis. This might seem very strange from an African perspective but it is always what is closer to your own worries is always bigger on your agenda than someone else’s worries.”

A more convincing argument for Europeans, Timmermans said, is that “without success in Africa,  there can be no success in Europe – our destinies are so intimately intertwined that if we are not collectively responsible for development in Africa, for Africa being able to use the opportunities it has… we will sink together in an ocean of despair”.

...

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/09/06/african-leaders-blast-european-no-shows-at-climate-adaptation-summit/
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vox_mundi

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Re: COP27
« Reply #10 on: September 08, 2022, 08:34:36 PM »
Risk of Multiple Climate Tipping Points Escalates Above 1.5°C Global Warming
https://phys.org/news/2022-09-multiple-climate-escalates-15c-global.html



Multiple climate tipping points could be triggered if global temperature rises beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to a major new analysis published in the journal Science. Even at current levels of global heating the world is already at risk of passing five dangerous climate tipping points, and risks increase with each tenth of a degree of further warming.

An international research team synthesized evidence for tipping points, their temperature thresholds, timescales, and impacts from a comprehensive review of over 200 papers published since 2008, when climate tipping points were first rigorously defined. They have increased the list of potential tipping points from nine to sixteen.

https://global-tipping-points.org/

The research, published in advance of a major conference Tipping Points: From Climate Crisis to Positive Transformation at the University of Exeter (September 12–14th), concludes human emissions have already pushed Earth into the tipping points danger zone. Five of the sixteen may be triggered at today's temperatures: the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, widespread abrupt permafrost thaw, collapse of convection in the Labrador Sea, and massive die-off of tropical coral reefs. Four of these move from possible events to likely at 1.5°C global warming, with five more becoming possible around this level of heating.



... The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), stated that risks of triggering climate tipping points become high by around 2°C above preindustrial temperatures and very high by 2.5–4°C.

... We have left it too late to tackle climate change incrementally.
It now requires transformational change, and a dramatic acceleration of progress.


This new analysis indicates that Earth may have already left a "safe" climate state when temperatures exceeded approximately 1°C warming. A conclusion of the research is therefore that even the United Nations' Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to well-below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C is not enough to fully avoid dangerous climate change. According to the assessment, tipping point likelihood increases markedly in the "Paris range" of 1.5–2°C warming, with even higher risks beyond 2°C.

... Scouring paleoclimate data, current observations, and the outputs from climate models, the international team concluded that 16 major biophysical systems involved in regulating Earth's climate (so-called "tipping elements") have the potential to cross tipping points where change becomes self-sustaining. That means even if temperature stops rising, once the ice sheet, ocean or rainforest has passed a tipping point it will carry on changing to a new state. How long the transition takes varies from decades to thousands of years depending on the system. For example, ecosystems and atmospheric circulation patterns can change quickly, while ice sheet collapse is slower but leads to unavoidable sea level rise of several meters.



"Importantly, many tipping elements in the Earth system are interlinked, making cascading tipping points a serious additional concern. In fact, interactions can lower the critical temperature thresholds beyond which individual tipping elements begin destabilizing in the long-run."

David I. Armstrong McKay et al, Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science (2022).
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950
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Freegrass

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Re: COP27
« Reply #11 on: September 08, 2022, 11:31:03 PM »
350 ppm used to be the limit. We're above 420 now, with no slowdown in sight...
So yeah, we're in deep shit, and nobody seems to care...

Although! Fox news is shifting... I don't hear them denying climate change anymore. Now they just attack "leftist" climate polities... Of course they know better now on Fox news after denying for years that the climate crisis was real...

And they still haven't made up their mind about the FF industry. Their solution is all of the above, and what "the left" does is wrong... But hey... they're not complete denialists anymore... I guess we can call that progress?  ???
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Freegrass

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Re: COP27
« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2022, 12:58:37 PM »
Switching the whole world to renewable energy could pay for itself in just six years, study says
Renewable energy infrastructure will cost trillions of dollars – but savings will recoup costs quickly

https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/renewable-energy-costs-benefits-b2162286.html

If the world wants to avoid some of the most serious ramifications of the climate crisis, countries will need to start shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy quickly.

The problem is that building all that new infrastructure is expensive – costing the world trillions of dollars to install solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and other renewable energy systems.

Yet, a new study finds that those costs might only be short-term.

Transitioning nearly the entire world to an efficient and renewable energy system would cost nearly $62 trillion, according to the analysis by researchers at Stanford University.

But all that new, fancy infrastructure would also save trillions in energy costs every year afterwards – meaning the whole transition could pay for itself in less than six years.


The research team looked at the costs of switching to renewables in 145 countries that, combined, emit 99.7 per cent of the world’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels.

That included building new power plants with technologies like solar, wind and hydroelectric energy. They also included adding new electricity storage, like batteries and new technologies like electric vehicles for transportation and heat pumps for climate control in buildings.

They published their results in June in the journal Energy & Environmental Science.

Building all that new stuff is what would cost $62 trillion. But then they looked at the potential savings.

Private energy costs alone would drop by 62.7 per cent – or about $11 trillion each year. In less than six years, those savings would outweigh all the initial building costs.

Even more savings could be factored in by incorporating all the societal costs from fossil fuels. When the researchers calculated all the money saved by avoiding things like air pollution from power plants and climate damage, they found that the world could recoup its entire investment in renewable infrastructure in less than one year.

In addition to the cost savings, the researchers estimated that all this new infrastructure would create more than 28 million jobs worldwide and use less than 1 per cent of the world’s landmass.

The study is the latest to point to the potential societal benefits of averting the climate crisis. And the consequences of remaining on a more “business as usual” path will include more than just monetary costs.

A warmer planet – created by pumping more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere – will likely mean a lot more deadly droughts, storms, wildfires and hurricanes.

Earlier this year, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a leading authority on global climate science, warned that greenhouse gas emissions must start dropping by 2025 if the world wants to keep warming to around 1.5C and avoid some of the worst potential climate consequences.

Already, the planet has warmed about 1.1-1.2C above 19th-century temperatures.
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #13 on: September 09, 2022, 05:42:22 PM »
Well let´s get started.  :)

There was another recent paper, probably dutch, which also looked into the benefits of climate change. They also concluded that it pays back the investments in a rather short time. Bit longer then this one but they did not include the health care benefits.

The article discussing this brought up an interesting point. The whole discussion is about costs usually. But we only look at the new investments. The gains are usually not reported and there is no structural way in which we look at this. They proposed making reporting on this number mandatory for the government.
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Freegrass

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Re: COP27
« Reply #14 on: September 09, 2022, 07:05:49 PM »
Well let´s get started.  :)

There was another recent paper, probably dutch, which also looked into the benefits of climate change. They also concluded that it pays back the investments in a rather short time. Bit longer then this one but they did not include the health care benefits.

The article discussing this brought up an interesting point. The whole discussion is about costs usually. But we only look at the new investments. The gains are usually not reported and there is no structural way in which we look at this. They proposed making reporting on this number mandatory for the government.
I just started a new hashtag on twitter, #TenYearsOfPeace. Can we make it trending?
(I'm having a whiskey and C party right now. Thought I deserved one for my new insight into how we can save the planet... So forgive me for my unbridled optimism and foolish hope right now and increasing gibberish)

https://twitter.com/FreeGrass69/status/1568269581868826627
Quote
Just imagine if the world could agree on a pauze on military spending for 10 years. 10 years of world peace to combat the global thread of #climatechange... We'd have more than enough money to combat the biggest thread to humankind and our natural world...

#tenyearsofpeace

We can start killing eachother again after ten years, in the knowledge that it won't be our planet that's killing us... We can become our own stupid selfish egotripping nationalistic self again and spend more money on tools to kill everyone that doesn't share our ideals or religious believes...

Maybe, just maybe, we wouldn't have to kill eachother anymore over energy supplies after we've found a way to create cheap, clean, and abundant energy...

But I don't have much hope... Too many idiots with too much money and influence to keep things as they are...

What are they trying to "conserve" anyway?
WAKE UP!
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Freegrass

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Re: COP27
« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2022, 11:32:39 PM »
Did I wake up on a different planet this morning? I can't remember hitting my head or taking any drugs last night, so what's going on here? Has the world completely lost it's mind? Or is it just me?

No matter what it is, I like it... :)
I guess all China needed was a good heatwave...

China urges Europe to take ‘positive action’ on climate change, despite energy crisis

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/china-urges-europe-to-take-positive-action-on-climate-change-despite-energy-crisis/

Europe and other developed countries must take “positive action” to implement climate change goals as geopolitical uncertainties threaten to undermine their efforts, China’s top climate envoy told his German counterpart.

Xie Zhenhua, who leads China’s climate negotiations, told Germany’s special climate envoy Jennifer Morgan via video link late on Wednesday that global climate governance was currently facing “multiple challenges and uncertainties”.

“The climate policies of some European countries have shown a ‘backswing’, and it is hoped that this is just a temporary stopgap,” he said, according to a summary of the meeting released by China’s environment ministry.

As western countries raise coal consumption in order to offset gas supply disruptions brought about by the conflict in Ukraine, China’s foreign ministry said in a statement this month that its own green and low-carbon development path remained firm – “in contrast with the European Union”.

Europe has insisted the rise in coal use is only a temporary measure that will have no long-term impact on the EU target to cut emissions by 55% from 1990 to 2030.

China, the world’s biggest carbon emitter, is expected to focus on the issue of financing at this year’s global climate talks, known as COP27, which will take place in Sharm El-Sheikh in Egypt in November.

Xie told Morgan that “implementation and action” should be the major theme of the meeting, and said he hoped industrialised countries would quickly meet their pledge under the Paris Agreement to transfer $100 billion a year in climate funds to developing nations.


After the visit of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in August, China cancelled bilateral talks on climate with the United States, raising concerns that the battle against global warming would be undermined by geopolitical tensions.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi told UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres on Wednesday that all parties needed to build a “good political atmosphere” ahead of COP27 and “abandon unilateralism, geopolitical games and green barriers”, according to a statement on the foreign ministry website.
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2022, 01:13:57 PM »
Gap to 1.5C yawns, as most governments miss UN deadline to improve climate plans

Almost all the world’s governments have failed to improve their climate plans this year, breaking a promise made at last year’s climate summit in Glasgow, UK.

At Cop26, all countries agreed to “revisit and strengthen” their 2030 climate plans, to close the gap between national action and the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.

23 September was the cut-off date for inclusion in a UN Climate Change progress report and was highlighted as a deadline by Cop26 president Alok Sharma.

As that date passed, just 23 of the nearly 200 countries which signed the Glasgow agreement had submitted updated 2030 climate plans. Of these, most offered more policy detail rather than strengthening headline targets.

Top three emitters the USA, EU and China worked on implementing pledges made last year but did not increase their ambition. India formalised promises made by prime minister Narendra Modi at Cop26 into an official four-page document.

Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare told a webinar last week: “The bottom line is there has been really little progress since Cop26. Politics and geopolitics is dominated by the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine which then sent energy markets into turmoil but still, we feel countries should be moving ahead.”

He added: “There’s a massive emissions gap remaining and the IPCC assessment has been very clear that we do need to get down and close that gap if we have much of a chance of limiting warming to 1.5C.”

more details on:
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2022/09/26/gap-to-1-5c-yawns-as-most-governments-miss-un-deadline-to-improve-climate-plans/
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: COP27
« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2022, 06:05:24 AM »
Gap to 1.5C yawns, as most governments miss UN deadline to improve climate plans

A gap has certainly yawned in the Yukon, Canada.
Yukon has an emission target for 2030, on the trail to 'net zero' by 2050, but this summer's report card showed that it is not even close to being on the right trajectory to achieve its goals.
Not only that, but it has decided that imposing emission targets on mines would be wrong, because, the reasoning goes, mining is so volatile, and produces so much carbon, that it is possible that the vagaries of mining decisions would result in a drop in emissions and lead ordinary Yukon residents to slack off. So, mines are not being counted. It's as if mining emissions are not really GHGs.
However, nonplussed as to how to reduce emissions for everyone else, the government struck a committee, the Climate Leadership Council to craft recommendations that would put us on the right track.
Impressively, they managed to do exactly that and they released it today.
If the government adopts the recommendations, we will achieve our GHG reduction targets....well, if you assume mining emissions don't count....
https://yukon.ca/sites/yukon.ca/files/env/env-climate-shot-2030.pdf

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COP27
« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2022, 12:30:46 AM »
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-63131958

Don’t backtrack on climate, COP host Egypt tells Truss

Quote
Egypt, which is hosting this year's COP27 UN climate summit in November, has warned the UK not to "backtrack" on the global climate agenda.

The unusual intervention followed press reports that Prime Minister Liz Truss told King Charles III not to attend.

Ms Truss has not said whether she will attend COP27, suggesting that the UK may have neither a head of government nor a head of state in attendance.

The UK hosted the COP26 UN climate conference last November in Glasgow.

Traditionally the hosts of successive COPs work together to ensure a smooth handover.

Quote
A story in last week's Sunday Times claimed Ms Truss had "ordered" the King, a passionate environmentalist, not to attend the summit in Sharm el-Sheikh. Buckingham Palace said advice had been sought by the King and given by Ms Truss.

On Tuesday Ms Truss told LBC radio: "It is entirely a matter for the King, his travel programme," but said she would not reveal the contents of her discussions with the monarch, which she said were "entirely confidential".

This is complete bollox by Truss. He's a high value diplomatic card, particularly in this context, and she's chosen not to play him.

Quote
Liz Truss has said she supports the net zero target and will "double down" on achieving it, but has lifted a ban on fracking in England, plans to issue more than 100 new licences for oil and gas in the North Sea and has signalled she may cancel a host of green regulations in the UK.


NeilT

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Re: COP27
« Reply #19 on: October 05, 2022, 10:24:07 AM »
She has chosen not to play him because, on this agenda, it is unlikely she can control him and his own view is radically different to that of the current Government.

Boris would have played him in a heartbeat.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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Re: COP27
« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2022, 06:54:13 PM »
Cop 27: Uganda-Tanzania oil pipeline sparks climate row

Uganda and Tanzania are set to begin work on a massive crude oil pipeline a year after the International Energy Agency warned that the world risked not meeting its climate goals if new fossil fuel projects were not stopped. The two East African countries say their priority is economic development.

...

Because of the waxy nature of Lake Albert's crude oil, it will be transported through a heated pipeline - the longest in the world. But only a third of the reserves of 6.5 billion barrels, first discovered in 2006, is deemed commercially viable.

Despite the projected economic benefits, the timing of the project has divided opinion in Uganda and beyond.

In September, the European Union waded into the controversy surrounding the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (Eacop), and called for it to be halted, citing human rights abuses and concern for the environment and the climate.

The intervention was dismissed by the Ugandan and Tanzanian governments which see the pipeline as vital to turbo-charge their economies.

"They are insufferable, so shallow, so egocentric, so wrong," Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni said of the EU lawmakers.

His frustration is shared by some advocates of Africa's economic development who argue that the continent has the right to use its fossil fuel riches to develop, just like rich nations have done for hundreds of years.

They point out that Africa has only emitted 3% of climate-warming gases compared to 17% from EU countries.

Crucially, 92% of Uganda's energy already comes from renewable sources. In Tanzania, it is about 84%. Whereas for the EU it is 22%, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.


"It's hypocrisy," Elison Karuhanga, a member of Uganda's chamber of mines and petroleum, says of the EU's comments about the pipeline.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-63212991

They have quite a strong argument.
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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #21 on: October 26, 2022, 05:02:42 PM »
COP27: Climate change threatening global health - report

Climate change is severely impacting people's health around the world, a report by a leading medical publication has found.

The Lancet Countdown report says the world's continued reliance on fossil fuels increases the risk of food insecurity, infectious disease and heat-related illness.

...

Heat-related deaths globally have increased by two thirds over the last two decades, it finds.

Temperature records have been broken around the world in 2022, including in the UK where 40C was recorded in July, as well as parts of Europe, Pakistan and China.

The health impacts of extreme heat include exacerbating conditions such as cardiovascular and respiratory disease, and causing heat stroke and poor mental health.

But it said there are solutions. "Despite the challenges, there is clear evidence that immediate action could still save the lives of millions, with a rapid shift to clean energy and energy efficiency," the report concludes.

Mr Guterres said that the world is watching G20 countries, which produce 80% of global greenhouse emissions. They must step up efforts to slash emissions and lead the way by investing more in renewable energy, he added.

...

A Unicef report, also published on Wednesday, warned urgent action is needed to increase funding to protect children and vulnerable communities from worsening heatwaves.

Researchers found that the change in climate has increased the spread of infectious diseases. The number of months that facilitate malaria transmission increased in the highland areas of the Americas and Africa in the past 60 years.

Fossil fuel emissions are major contributors to air pollution. Data from the Lancet Countdown estimates that exposure to air pollution contributed to 4.7 million deaths globally in 2020, of which 1.3 million (35%) directly related to fossil fuel combustion.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63386814
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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2022, 03:03:33 PM »
Rich countries like Canada head to another COP climate conference after failing to meet $100B financing goal

Global commitment to developing countries stands at $83.B

Wealthy countries like Canada that have generated the bulk of climate-altering global carbon emissions are heading into another global climate conference after failing — again — to meet their financial commitments to the countries bearing the brunt of climate change.

Ahead of the November 6-18 COP27 climate conference in Egypt, Canada's environment minister and Germany's international climate envoy released a progress report concluding that more work is needed to deliver $136.2 billion Cdn ($100 billion US) in annual climate financing.

"We know that we did not mobilize US$100 billion in 2020, but through this report [we] demonstrate developed countries' ongoing commitment to reaching this goal as soon as possible," wrote Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault and Jennifer Morgan, Germany's secretary of state and international climate action envoy.

...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cop27-climate-change-1.6632744

Eat this report...  ::)
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gerontocrat

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Re: COP27
« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2022, 02:50:32 AM »
Looks to me as if COP27 is going to be part of the problem, not part of the solution.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/31/egypt-cop27-showcase-charms-sharm-el-sheikh-protest-mall
Cop27 protesters will be corralled in desert away from climate conference

Visitors to Sharm el-Sheikh also face extensive searches and video surveillance in taxis

Quote

Across Sharm el-Sheikh, a slim strip of manicured resorts, asphalt and concrete near the southern tip of the Sinai peninsula, teams of workers are putting the finishing touches to preparations for the UN’s Cop27 climate conference.

Sparkling new buses are ready to drive down the enlarged highways that cut across desert landscape, flanked by smooth shiny new walkways adorned with angular sculptural arches. A field of glittering solar panels run by a company with ties to the Egyptian military will be online in time for the conference, as well as a new shopping mall.

New surveillance technologies are also in place, so much so that Maj Gen Khaled Fouda, governor of South Sinai, recently boasted to a local cable channel that any visitors entering overland will be extensively searched at a gate encircling the city. He added that 500 white taxis commissioned to transport attenders during the conference will be equipped with interior cameras, all connected to a local “security observatory”, to monitor the footage.

There will be space for protesters to gather at Cop27, but only in a purpose-built area out near a highway and away from the conference centre or any other signs of life. Images of the designated protest area show a row of white painted cabins between a row of palm trees and a car park. It was unclear whether protesters will be permitted to spread out among the vast open landscape, or be forced to crowd next to the cabins to find relief from the desert sun.

“It’s very chic, very clean. There are cafes and restaurants on site,” said Fouda, and: “No one is allowed here without registration.” He added that Egyptian authorities constructed the protest area in response to a spate of calls from western diplomats worried that demonstrations would be prevented at Cop27 in line with a ban on public protest that has existed for almost a decade.

A hotel in Egypt’s Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. Photograph: Sayed Sheasha/Reuters

He scoffed at the Egyptian government’s vision of a designated protest area. “It’s theatrics,” he said. “They don’t want to allow the right to protest or freedom of assembly, but they want to seem as though they are. It’s [president] Sisi’s vision of a protest – you go to a place and register and protest for an hour where no one can see you, and then they have you on camera where the authorities can see if you say something they don’t like. It’s the act of a state that doesn’t want to allow freedom of assembly, but doesn’t want to be called out for not permitting it.”

For many observers, Egypt’s choice to hold Cop27 in a resort town far from the country’s bustling capital with its population of 22 million is by design. Sharm el-Sheikh has long been used by Egypt’s leadership as a satellite location, a way to escape their own citizens and ensure that visiting dignitaries and officials are kept far from the country’s major cities when they attend state events. The purpose-built town draped between the sea and a backdrop of mountain ranges that resembles a lunar landscape features no central square or places where people could gather in large groups even if the law permitted. Instead, long, flat highways connect a web of luxurious high-end resorts, intended for visiting tourists or the Egyptian elite to gaze out on to the Red Sea, the ideal staging ground for intensive surveillance of anyone attending Cop27.

“Sharm el Sheikh is a dream resort where the government can exclude the majority of Egyptians, and invest huge amounts of resources to ensure that everything is under surveillance and their control,” said Baoumi. “It’s telling how the Egyptian presidency and the leadership view their ideal society, it’s a gated one without the masses.”

Surveillance of Cop27 attenders will also extend to their virtual world, via an app created by the Egyptian government to act as a guide to the conference facilities. “You can download the official Cop27 mobile app, but you must give your full name, email address, mobile number, nationality and passport number. Also you must enable location tracking,” tweeted Hossam Baghat, of the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights. Baoumi added that technology specialists working for Amnesty International reviewed the app and flagged concerns about surveillance, due to its ability to access the user’s camera, microphone, location data and Bluetooth.

The complex of hotels and mansions in Sharm el-Sheikh have symbolised elite seclusion for decades. When Egypt’s former president Hosni Mubarak fled popular uprisings across mainland Egypt in 2011 it was for his mansion in Sharm el-Sheikh. Bakr bin Laden, former head of the family’s construction firm and half-brother of Osama, was one of Mubarak’s notable neighbours, known for doing business from his luxurious home.

The convention centre adjoining the Jolie Ville resort, with its lush gardens and a golf course built by a former Mubarak ally, also frequently hosts diplomatic events, a way for Egypt to welcome allies from Saudi Arabia or Israel in a remote location. But since coming to power in a military coup in 2013, Egypt’s President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi has also been fond of using Sharm el-Sheikh as the venue for national conferences where the authorities can make sweeping decisions for the Egyptian citizenry far from any public input or scrutiny. This, notably, includes the state’s economic development conference in 2015, where he announced that Egypt would build a new capital in the desert outside Cairo, and received $12.5bn in donations from Egypt’s Gulf backers, as well as $12bn in deals with BP.

There is a marked contrast between who is welcomed into the gated community of Sharm el-Sheikh and the treatment of those elsewhere in the Sinai peninsula, not least because Fouda oversaw the construction of a wall around the city in 2019 to “beautify and secure Sharm el-Sheikh”. The wall consists of concrete barriers and razor-wire with “four very beautiful doors” to access the town. Bedouin and local communities living in the north of the peninsula, meanwhile, have long been subject to neglect and state violence, including mass home demolitions that Human Rights Watch labelled a possible war crime.

Observers say hosting Cop27 in Sharm el-Sheikh is a way for the Egyptian authorities to control which citizens interact with conference attendees, and to ensure that anyone permitted to enter is under heavy surveillance. “They don’t want Egyptians to interact with the world, or the world to interact with Egyptians,” said Baomi. “One of the major reasons for them hosting the Cop is greenwashing, to conceal the crimes that are happening inside the country and to prevent state delegations and officials from meeting with Egyptians”

A participant who attended a briefing with Egyptian officials at the Bonn climate change conference this year described how they presented Cop27. “It was billed to us as a lovely vacation at all inclusive resorts,” they said. “They showed us pictures of luxury resorts and palm trees by the beach. It was extraordinary.

“They implied we would be able to snorkel and go on snazzy excursions, that we’d be chauffeured from place to place – you’d think we were going on a dream holiday. Cop27 was being sold to us as a romantic five-star getaway when many are trying to raise concerns that civil society and delegates from the global south can’t afford the price of hotel rooms or get visas on time, to ensure that we can actually engage in some meaningful discussion and action.”

Using Cop27 to showcase Sharm el-Sheikh as a tourism destination does not bode well for vital climate negotiations, they added, . “It’s just very telling how these climate talks are now regarded. It’s not about what’s on the agenda or delivering results,” they said. “It’s just about bringing in money, greenwashing, and snapping beautiful pictures along the way.”
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NeilT

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Re: COP27
« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2022, 09:38:15 AM »
The problem with Egypt is that "protests" often include weapons and terrorism.

Those in the "safe" West usually witter on about safety precautions in unsafe locations as suppression.

This is common sense.
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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #25 on: November 02, 2022, 02:52:35 PM »
I don´t think that you got to get that close in COP 26 either. And also it is kind of useless. Yes protest if you are near and interested but flying there to protest is a waste of FFs.

The interesting discussion will be between the rich and the poor countries and they have enough to talk about without anyone protesting anyway.
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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #26 on: November 03, 2022, 10:44:08 AM »
COP27: What have global leaders done on climate change in 2022?

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63458945

It discusses all the big countries.
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gerontocrat

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Re: COP27
« Reply #27 on: November 03, 2022, 06:21:47 PM »
From Bloomberg News
Quote
Even Conservative Estimates See Fossil Fuel Use Peaking Soon
As negotiators head to Egypt for COP27, the good news is that the IEA sees a “definitive peak” for fossil fuels by the mid-2030s. The power sector may already be there.

So use of fossil fuels not to peak until the mid 2030s.
If that is the reality we are all well and truly stuffed.
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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #28 on: November 03, 2022, 09:03:48 PM »
That would mean missing the 2025 mark which probably gets us well up for global temperature rises. Somewhere beyond 2C not sure how far.

It might be a bit quicker then that. Last year was a 1% rise. Energy prices in Europe are up so that brings down demand but then again growth in other parts of the world might compensate for that.

Of course an actual policy could do way more but that interferes with money so lets not do that.

Of course going forward we will see some effects of climate change we have never seen before. Lots of glaciers going away before 2050s. Some bits falling of Antarctica at an increasing rate before that. I wonder what will happen at the next El Nino.

We cannot just turn it off.
We are basically dumping a huge load of problems on our kids. We will probably see climate change as a much bigger problem soon when problems start to compound but it will be too late by then.

Of course this is already true because at 1.1C we managed to trigger melt in both Greenland and Antarctica plus the fish stocks started moving from the equator. Some cities got flushed but overall it is not so bad yet so we keep doing what we do.

Quote
However, financing to turn these plans and strategies into action isn’t following. International adaptation finance flows to developing countries are 5-10 times below estimated needs and the gap is widening. Estimated annual adaptation needs are USD 160-340 billion by 2030 and USD 315-565 billion by 2050.

Implementation of adaptation actions – concentrated in agriculture, water, ecosystems and cross-cutting sectors – is increasing. However, without a step change in support, adaptation actions could be outstripped by accelerating climate risks, which would further widen the adaptation implementation gap.

https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2022

Much of the 27 discussion will be about money but all is useless without a really clear strategy to reduce FFs ASAP.

« Last Edit: November 03, 2022, 09:09:36 PM by kassy »
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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #29 on: November 03, 2022, 09:20:53 PM »
New report: Countries' climate pledges put unrealistic demands for land ahead of emissions reductions

Melbourne, Australia (1 November 2022)—A new study is the first to calculate that countries collectively need a total of 1.2 billion hectares of land to fulfill the promises laid out in their official climate plans, part of global efforts to meet Paris Agreement goals. 

The study, involving more than 20 researchers from around the world and released today by Melbourne Climate Futures, the University of Melbourne’s interdisciplinary climate research initiative, determines that countries intend to use 633 million hectares of the total land area for carbon capture tactics like tree planting, which would gobble up land desperately needed for food production and nature protection.

Only 551 million hectares accounted for in pledges would restore degraded lands and primary forests, which store carbon, regulate rainfall and local temperatures, shelter plants and animals, purify water and air and in some cases belong to Indigenous Peoples, whose land rights are found to be critical to reducing climate change due to their stewardship of forests.

...

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/969176
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Human Habitat Index

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Re: COP27
« Reply #30 on: November 04, 2022, 02:18:05 AM »
We are being taken for a ride, with the good ole good COP bad COP routine.

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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #31 on: November 04, 2022, 05:36:49 PM »
New report: Countries' climate pledges put unrealistic demands for land ahead of emissions reductions

Melbourne, Australia (1 November 2022)—A new study is the first to calculate that countries collectively need a total of 1.2 billion hectares of land to fulfill the promises laid out in their official climate plans, part of global efforts to meet Paris Agreement goals. 

The study, involving more than 20 researchers from around the world and released today by Melbourne Climate Futures, the University of Melbourne’s interdisciplinary climate research initiative, determines that countries intend to use 633 million hectares of the total land area for carbon capture tactics like tree planting, which would gobble up land desperately needed for food production and nature protection.

Only 551 million hectares accounted for in pledges would restore degraded lands and primary forests, which store carbon, regulate rainfall and local temperatures, shelter plants and animals, purify water and air and in some cases belong to Indigenous Peoples, whose land rights are found to be critical to reducing climate change due to their stewardship of forests.

“Land has a critical role to play in global efforts to keep the planet cool, but it's not a silver bullet solution,” said Kate Dooley, the lead author of The Land Gap Report and a researcher at the University of Melbourne. “This study reveals that countries’ climate pledges are dangerously over reliant on inequitable and unsustainable land-based measures to capture and store carbon. Clearly, countries are loading up on land pledges to avoid the hard work of steeply reducing emissions from fossil fuels, decarbonizing food systems and stopping the destruction of forests and other ecosystems.”

more:
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/969176
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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #32 on: November 07, 2022, 10:20:25 AM »
Sharm-El-Sheikh, Egypt 6 November (WMO) - The past eight years are on track to be the eight warmest on record, fuelled by ever-rising greenhouse gas concentrations and accumulated heat. Extreme heatwaves, drought and devastating flooding have affected millions and cost billions this year, according to the World Meteorological Organization’s provisional State of the Global Climate in 2022 report.

The tell-tale signs and impacts of climate change are becoming more dramatic. The rate of sea level rise has doubled since 1993. It has risen by nearly 10 mm since January 2020 to a new record high this year. The past two and a half years alone account for 10 percent of the overall rise in sea level since satellite measurements started nearly 30 years ago.

2022 took an exceptionally heavy toll on glaciers in the European Alps, with initial indications of record-shattering melt. The Greenland ice sheet lost mass for the 26th consecutive year and it rained (rather than snowed) there for the first time in September.

The global mean temperature in 2022 is currently estimated to be about 1.15 [1.02 to 1.28] °C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. A rare triple-dip cooling La Niña means that 2022 is likely to “only” be fifth or sixth warmest. However, this does not reverse the long-term trend; it is only a matter of time until there is another warmest year on record.

Indeed, the warming continues. The 10-year average for the period 2013-2022 is estimated to be 1.14 [1.02 to 1.27] °C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. This compares with 1.09°C from 2011 to 2020, as estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment report.

...

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/eight-warmest-years-record-witness-upsurge-climate-change-impacts
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vox_mundi

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Re: COP27
« Reply #33 on: November 07, 2022, 02:29:30 PM »
UN Weather Report: Climate Woes Bad and Getting Worse Faster
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/eight-warmest-years-record-witness-upsurge-climate-change-impacts
https://phys.org/news/2022-11-weather-climate-woes-bad-worse.html



"The latest State of the Global Climate report is a chronicle of climate chaos," United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said. "We must answer the planet's distress signal with action—ambitious, credible climate action."

In its annual state of the climate report, the United Nations' weather agency said that sea level rise in the past decade was double what it was in the 1990s and since January 2020 has jumped at a higher rate than that. Since the decade began, seas are rising at 5 millimeters a year (.2 inches) compared to 2.1 millimeters (.08 inches) in the 1990s.



The last eight years have been the warmest on record, the WMO said in a report that didn't break new ground but was a collection of recent weather trends, data and impacts in one central place.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #34 on: November 08, 2022, 11:14:18 AM »
So Rutte call for solidarity with the poor countries. The payments into climate finance will increase from 1,25 billion euros to 1,8 billion euros but only from 2025. This is 50/50 public private finance.

We are not pledging any money into compensating for climate damages.

https://www.nu.nl/klimaat/6234537/rutte-roept-op-tot-meer-solidariteit-met-arme-landen-op-klimaattop-egypte.html

Sunak somehow appeared and speeched. "We can bequeath our children a greener planet and a more prosperous future [...] There really is room for hope," he added.

But has the UK already scrapped the more gas from the North Sea and fracking plans?
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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #35 on: November 08, 2022, 12:10:59 PM »
What Happens After Warming Hits 1.5C? A Guide to Climate Overshoot

...

Progress toward a global clean-energy transition and general decarbonization is proceeding at a rate only dreamed of a decade ago. Falling costs for solar and wind energy, batteries and electric vehicles continue to push into the economy. Technologies and nature-based approaches that remove carbon dioxide directly from air are proven but remain expensive.

The most authoritative statements on how these efforts are doing come from the IPCC. A report in April, authored by hundreds of researchers and based on 18,000 studies, found that the amount of time left is small and shrinking. Emissions must peak before 2025, the IPCC wrote, meaning there are roughly 80 months left to have a 67% chance of staying under 1.5C. (To keep the 2C target, by contrast, there remains 24 years of CO₂ emissions left.)

Emissions, of course, are still rising. Few of the probable futures from here are compatible with stopping before the 1.5C limit is breached. Of 230 scenarios in the latest IPCC report that keep temperatures at or below 1.5 by 2100, 96% pass by that threshold in the near term before nascent carbon dioxide removal technologies kick in and warming eventually drops back down. That means we can still create a 1.5C compatible world, even if we break through that limit initially.

...

In an overshoot scenario in which the global average temperature goes beyond 1.5C and humanity deploys costly technologies at scale to complement emissions reductions, the distance traveled over that line will become crucial. The UN Environment Program publishes an annual report showing how far actual emissions and trends remain from agreed-to limits. This year's Emissions Gap Report concludes that existing policies would bring an estimated 2.8C temperature rise. All of the Paris Agreement pledges made by nations, if fulfilled, would lead to an average estimate of 2.6C warming, according to Inger Andersen, UNEP executive director.

A best-case scenario would see nations fully implementing their UN pledges, net-zero goals and additional policies. That situation would “point to a 1.8C rise,” she writes in the forward to this year’s UNEP report. “However, this scenario is currently not credible.”

...

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/what-happens-after-warming-hits-1-5c-a-guide-to-climate-overshoot-1.1843077

Some nice abstract numbers but the effects they cause on the ground will be bad.

1,1C was enough to trigger the melt of Greenland and Antarctica. Every tenth of a degree extra will just accelerate this.
It was also enough to trigger the change of permafrost from sink to source. The added jump in temperatures will makes this worse and it will also increase the amount of rain which accelerates the melt.

On top of that there will be some arctic greening or browning. So more trees and shrubs will grow there which will not be good for the local albedo.

Current conditions are also enough to trigger Arctic ice loss by 2050 (from modelling) but going towards 1,5 should bring this forward.

We will lose glaciers all over the world etc.

What will the conditions be in the Horn of Africa or Australia at those temps?
How big will the rain events get at 1,5C?

And of course it also increases the chance of a multi bread basket failure.
It´s not going to help with forest fires in general and at some point lots of peatlands are at risk of drying out too.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COP27
« Reply #36 on: November 08, 2022, 02:39:33 PM »

Sunak somehow appeared and speeched. "We can bequeath our children a greener planet and a more prosperous future [...] There really is room for hope," he added.

But has the UK already scrapped the more gas from the North Sea and fracking plans?

Fracking scrapped, N Sea to continue. There's a certain amount of protest about it. The M25 (London orbital motorway) has been disrupted by Just Stop Oil.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-63552488

Quote
Multiple arrests have been made after a second day of widespread disruption by protesters on the M25.

The motorway was blocked and gantries were climbed in Essex, Hertfordshire, Kent and Surrey by Just Stop Oil activists.

They've been climbing the gantries and then the police decide to close the motorway while they remove them. Its a clever way of not actually doing the disruption themselves, just forcing the police to be very disruptive to shut down the protest.

kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #37 on: November 08, 2022, 03:12:37 PM »
Thanks. Hopefully that N Sea part will be scrapped too. Takes time to develop it so that probably helps.
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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #38 on: November 09, 2022, 04:12:29 PM »
The U.S. Is Presenting a Bad, Distracting Plan at U.N. Climate Talks

Climate envoy John Kerry has proposed relying on carbon credits to fund renewable energy in developing countries. What that really means is that the U.S. doesn’t want to pay up.

As climate talks kicked off in Egypt this week and U.S. Democrats braced for a possible shellacking in Tuesday’s elections, climate envoy John Kerry floated a new initiative for helping countries finance emissions reductions. Hauling out a favorite line, Kerry told The Wall Street Journal that “no government in the world has enough money to affect the transition,” referencing the $1.3 trillion in annual funding developing countries have demanded richer ones furnish by 2030. “The entity that could help the most,” Kerry added, “is the private sector with the right structure.” And the structure Kerry wants to build involves enticing governments and corporations to buy so-called carbon credits, with the funds from those sales financing clean energy in developing countries. Details of the new framework are still scant, with more due to be announced tomorrow.

The private sector–led approach to climate policy hasn’t fared well over the last year. Voluntary private-sector pledges announced in 2021 have been watered down and criticized for claiming false progress toward net-zero emissions. Carbon offsets—a business this new U.S. plan seems poised to grow—have been especially controversial; numerous stories and studies over the past several years have suggested they may be worse than useless, plagued by accounting problems while essentially giving companies a green light to keep emitting. As the developing world’s demands for wealthy countries to deliver climate finance grow louder than ever at COP27, the market-driven plan Kerry and other U.S. officials are endorsing looks a lot like a distraction from the issue at hand.

“As it stands, based on the sparse details available, Kerry’s proposal does not appear to be a good idea,” said Khaled Diab of the Brussels-based watchdog group Carbon Markets Watch. This scheme, he added, “could potentially provide large corporations with a license to continue to pollute with impunity while making questionable net-zero claims. That means it could fling the doors wide open for large-scale greenwashing.”

...

The plan Kerry has proposed is a clear stand-in for something else: adequate financial commitments from rich countries like the U.S. to poorer countries at particular risk from climate-related disasters. That includes financing for loss and damage from such disasters—disasters the U.S., among others, is arguably more responsible for given its historic emissions. A number of rich countries (Austria, Scotland, Belgium, Denmark, and Germany) have recently announced modest financial commitments toward a loss and damage financing facility that does not yet exist—in part thanks to U.S. obstruction.

...

much more on:
https://newrepublic.com/article/168579/us-presenting-bad-distracting-plan-un-climate-talks
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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #39 on: November 09, 2022, 04:16:26 PM »
Leaders of countries flooded or parched due to climate change are pleading at the COP27 summit for an urgent financial lifeline from richer nations.

"We will not give up... the alternative consigns us to a watery grave," Bahamas Prime Minister Philip Davies said.

...

"I'm not here to ask any of you to love the people of my country with the same passion as I do," Mr Davies told leaders.

"I'm asking what is it worth to you to have millions of climate refugees to turn into tens of millions, putting pressure on political and economic systems around the world," he said.

As a low-lying nation, the Bahamas is particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise and storm damage.

He urged nations to "get real", saying that acting on climate change is in everyone's self-interest.

...

Richer nations have historically avoided the question of compensation or reparations, but the issue - referred to as "loss and damage" - was put on the COP agenda this year for the first time since the summits began 30 years ago.

The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), a group of low-lying countries, suggested that fossil fuel companies "could carry a portion of their burden" by paying a tax on profits.

"We all know they make extortionate profits," Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda Gaston Browne told journalists at COP.

...

And speaking weeks after floods devastated Pakistan, killing more than 1,700 people, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said countries are "trapped in a crisis of public financing fuelled by debt and yet have to fund climate disasters on their own. This is simply unjust and unfair to say the least."

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63559426
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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #40 on: November 11, 2022, 02:44:30 PM »
Satellites suggest oil and gas industries only revealing one third of their total carbon emissions

A new map details a different set of numbers for carbon emissions.


Satellite monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions revealed at COP27 calls into question data from the Global Carbon Project, providing a very different set of numbers for global carbon emissions.

According to the dataset, several industries are under-reporting emissions: particularly the global oil and gas industry, which may have emissions three times higher than official estimates.

The organisation uses a network of 300 satellites, in combination with other remote sensing data and AI, to track emissions at nearly 80,000 sources.

In 2021, according to Climate TRACE’s estimate, the world emitted 56.33 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent.

“It blows away all the data being presented in the Global Carbon Project, which is based on self-reporting by nations,” says Peter Newman, a Professor of Sustainability at Curtin University who is currently attending COP27 and watched Gore’s launch.

The Global Carbon Project’s estimates for 2021 were 40.2 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent.

“Climate TRACE shows that oil and gas are the big error as they only report around half of their actual emissions generated in production of their fuels,” says Newman.

“Actual emissions, that include methane leaks, shows oil and gas are perhaps only reporting one third of their real emissions.

“Other major errors are made by power plants. The top 500 sources of emissions globally emit more than all of the US’ emissions, with 51% coming from power plants,” says Newman.

According to Climate TRACE’s data, Australia emits 0.65 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent, making it responsible for 1.10% of global carbon emissions and the 15th-largest emitter in the world.

But the Global Carbon Budget estimates Australia’s emissions as only 0.39 gigatonnes per year. This is also 1.1% of the Budget’s emissions.

...

https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/climate-trace-satellite/

We have the data to start regulating the industry now we just have to organize the will to do so...
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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #41 on: November 11, 2022, 02:54:11 PM »
COP27: Key climate goal of 1.5C rise faces new challenge


Emissions of CO2 are rising so quickly there is now a 50% chance the world will cross a crucial climate change threshold soon, a new report suggests.

Emissions for 2022 are expected to remain at record levels, lifted by people flying again after Covid.

The report said that if emissions stay so high, the world faces a 50% risk of breaching a key 1.5C temperature rise threshold in nine years.

This would have sweeping consequences for poorer and developing countries.

Average temperatures are now 1.1C above pre-industrial levels, and that increase has already caused major climate disasters this year.

If global average temperatures were to rise to more than 1.5C, the UN says it would expose millions more people to potentially devastating climate impacts.

The researchers have said emissions were rising in 2022 because of an increase in flying and the use of coal.

The report, published by the Global Carbon Project (GCP), used monthly energy data to estimate that global greenhouse gas emissions will rise by 1% this year.

This is in stark contrast to a recent UN report that global emissions need to fall by 45% by 2030 to keep temperatures below 1.5C.

...

India is expected to be the largest contributor to the growth in emissions in 2022 as it continues to increase its use of coal - the most polluting of fossil fuels.

...

And European countries are also turning to dirtier fossil fuels to cope with energy shortages driven by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Germany is burning more coal this year than last, and the UK has asked energy firms to delay the closure of end-of-life coal plants.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63591796

Also note they use an undercount compared to actual satellite measures as i posted above.
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El Cid

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Re: COP27
« Reply #42 on: November 11, 2022, 04:05:44 PM »
The report said that if emissions stay so high, the world faces a 50% risk of breaching a key 1.5C temperature rise threshold in nine years....

If global average temperatures were to rise to more than 1.5C, the UN says it would expose millions more people to potentially devastating climate impacts.

There is nothing magical about 1.5 C, and besides it was an already impossible goalpost when conceived, and it is almost 100% that we will go very much above that. However nothing special will happen at 1.51 C that did not happen at 1.49C. I would be very surprised if we managed to stop below 2 C.

Sublime_Rime

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Re: COP27
« Reply #43 on: November 11, 2022, 04:14:04 PM »
While I doubt we can keep under 1.5C, even in the long term (not merely overshoot), i think it's still a useful tactic to prevent us from reaching 2C, and remaining as far under as possible.

If you want to get the family ready on time for a 7pm show, you tell them it starts at 6:30. Maybe if lucky you get there at 6:45. Still time to go to the bathroom before...


Edit: Hopefully the show isn't The Day After Tomorrow!
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vox_mundi

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Re: COP27
« Reply #44 on: November 11, 2022, 04:30:28 PM »
Quote from: El Cid
There is nothing magical about 1.5 C, and besides it was an already impossible goalpost when conceived, and it is almost 100% that we will go very much above that. However nothing special will happen at 1.51 C that did not happen at 1.49C. I would be very surprised if we managed to stop below 2 C.

This is the logic of boiling frogs ...

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #45 on: November 11, 2022, 09:47:12 PM »
It is a political number not one that comes from science. But it is one of the numbers we use.

We loved to paint climate change as a future problem. This is no longer true and this research tries to inform us of that.

The maximum push we will hit determines the end result. If only our choice was between 1.51 or 1,49...that would be great but we are aiming for way worse outcomes.

There is lots of talk but very little reductions so far.

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kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #46 on: November 12, 2022, 10:02:43 AM »
CO2 Is on Track to Hit a Record High in 2022 And Shows No Signs of Going Down

...

"Emissions are now 5 percent above what they were when the Paris Agreement was signed" in 2015, he noted.

"You have to ask: When are they going to go down?"

...

The annual update also revealed that the ability of oceans, forests, and soil to continue soaking up more than half of CO2 emissions has slowed.

"These 'sinks' are weaker than they would be if not for the impacts of a changing climate," said co-author Corinne Le Quere, a professor at the University of East Anglia.

...

https://www.sciencealert.com/co2-is-on-track-to-hit-a-record-high-in-2022-and-shows-no-signs-of-going-down

So no decline on the inputs yet while the sinks are already taking up less...
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NeilT

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Re: COP27
« Reply #47 on: November 12, 2022, 11:41:23 AM »
So no decline on the inputs yet while the sinks are already taking up less...

This was known and broadcast 30 years ago. Nobody was listening then.  Never too late to start but may be too late to keep it to a low impact.
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etienne

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Re: COP27
« Reply #48 on: November 12, 2022, 05:05:50 PM »
I also feel that we have this time more article saying that, now that we almost are at 1,5 °C, that the situation isn't as bad as what we were afraid of.

This seems rather naive to me because it is more related to the fact that disasters happen at one place at a time, and people, instead of feeling lucky they are this time not concerned, feel that the situation isn't as bad because concerned people are a limited group.

kassy

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Re: COP27
« Reply #49 on: November 12, 2022, 07:58:21 PM »
It´s not what the science is saying so they must be opinion pieces.

Current 1.1C over weather has already shown how problematic that can be. The floods in Germany and Belgium which killed many people, Australia , Pakistan floods, still no rain in the horn of Africa, the mega ice loss in the alps etc etc.

And on the larger scale there is the Greenland melt and Thwaites about to collapse.

Those last effects are worse then expected and have wide ranging repercussions.

For the bad effects we can see them but yes we can also ignore them.
Annoyingly they are very good at it on the government level because they are so wed to the idea of fossil fuels growth.

It is not that easy to take out fossil fuels , it takes time and not having a plan or doing anything does not help. The more we emit the more stringent cuts need to be to aim toward the lower values. Without actual reductions all the rest is useless. And as long as temps go up the carbon sinks will degrade.

Time to cut the blah and the fossil fuels...
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