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nadir

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Next election
« on: August 10, 2022, 11:12:11 PM »
It’s surreal that something that is sold as the greatest climate action bill in history is actually a huge gift to oil and gas industries.

https://grist.org/energy/inflation-reduction-act-oil-gas-leases-federal-land/

The Walrus

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Re: Next election
« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2022, 11:48:46 PM »
It’s surreal that something that is sold as the greatest climate action bill in history is actually a huge gift to oil and gas industries.

https://grist.org/energy/inflation-reduction-act-oil-gas-leases-federal-land/

It is called politics.

nadir

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Re: Next election
« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2022, 10:44:31 AM »
It’s surreal that something that is sold as the greatest climate action bill in history is actually a huge gift to oil and gas industries.

https://grist.org/energy/inflation-reduction-act-oil-gas-leases-federal-land/

It is called politics.

Ah ok, in that case it’s all good, right? Nothing to see here either

SteveMDFP

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Re: Next election
« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2022, 12:45:31 PM »
It’s surreal that something that is sold as the greatest climate action bill in history is actually a huge gift to oil and gas industries.

https://grist.org/energy/inflation-reduction-act-oil-gas-leases-federal-land/

It is called politics.

Ah ok, in that case it’s all good, right? Nothing to see here either

It's not all good, but it is politics.  A long as the Senate ha a 50-50 split in party makeup, Joe Manchin has a personal veto on almost all legislation.  He's from a coal state, and a fossil fuel guy. Therefore, any bold legislation has to be negotiated with him.  He might be the most powerful person in DC.   But with a few more Dems in the Senate, his vote will become irrelevant.  Let's try for that.

NeilT

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Re: Next election
« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2022, 01:54:43 PM »
But with a few more Dems in the Senate, his vote will become irrelevant.  Let's try for that.

You can hope but the last I saw the Dems were at or below every rock bottom marker for election support.  The (dem), author of the article was consoling the Dems by saying that they couldn't possibly get record breaking loss of seats because they didn't have enough in the first place to make a record.

We can hope but Biden is hardly leading a charge to change the balance in either the house or the senate.  Unless it's against him.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

The Walrus

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Re: Next election
« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2022, 01:55:20 PM »
It’s surreal that something that is sold as the greatest climate action bill in history is actually a huge gift to oil and gas industries.

https://grist.org/energy/inflation-reduction-act-oil-gas-leases-federal-land/

It is called politics.

Ah ok, in that case it’s all good, right? Nothing to see here either

It's not all good, but it is politics.  A long as the Senate ha a 50-50 split in party makeup, Joe Manchin has a personal veto on almost all legislation.  He's from a coal state, and a fossil fuel guy. Therefore, any bold legislation has to be negotiated with him.  He might be the most powerful person in DC.   But with a few more Dems in the Senate, his vote will become irrelevant.  Let's try for that.

Tough slate.  The Dems will struggle to hold the Senate at 50-50.  That is the most likely scenario.  Most forecasters have the GOP ahead 49-47 (including the Inds. that side with the Dems.), and 4 states tossups. 

https://www.270towin.com/2022-senate-election/consensus-2022-senate-forecast

The Dems would need all 4 to increase their advantage.  The political climate is not as anti-Dem as it was a few months ago, but they would need more pull come Novemeber to increase their chances.  There are few other races that are competetive and could change come November, but that would probably require some kind of bombshell affecting the race.  Forecasters are predicting the GOP to win back the House, with anywhere from a 3 to 35 seat advantage.  House seats are notorously harder to predict, so these forecasts have a much larger margin of error.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Next election
« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2022, 04:35:25 PM »
But with a few more Dems in the Senate, his vote will become irrelevant.  Let's try for that.

You can hope but the last I saw the Dems were at or below every rock bottom marker for election support.  The (dem), author of the article was consoling the Dems by saying that they couldn't possibly get record breaking loss of seats because they didn't have enough in the first place to make a record.

We can hope but Biden is hardly leading a charge to change the balance in either the house or the senate.  Unless it's against him.

Hardly rock bottom, but Manchin is virtually certain to have a lot less influence after the election. If they hold the House they'll probably pick up a couple in the Senate.
60% probability to hold the Senate
20% to hold the House
https://fivethirtyeight.com/

SteveMDFP

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Re: Next election
« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2022, 05:07:02 PM »
But with a few more Dems in the Senate, his vote will become irrelevant.  Let's try for that.

You can hope but the last I saw the Dems were at or below every rock bottom marker for election support.  The (dem), author of the article was consoling the Dems by saying that they couldn't possibly get record breaking loss of seats because they didn't have enough in the first place to make a record.

We can hope but Biden is hardly leading a charge to change the balance in either the house or the senate.  Unless it's against him.

Hardly rock bottom, but Manchin is virtually certain to have a lot less influence after the election. If they hold the House they'll probably pick up a couple in the Senate.
60% probability to hold the Senate
20% to hold the House
https://fivethirtyeight.com/

Indeed.  Though Biden has low popularity, most Americans favor Roe v. Wade, and aren't that happy with the SC's gun control decisions.  So the midterms and following elections are very much in play. 

The Walrus

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Re: Next election
« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2022, 05:26:00 PM »
But with a few more Dems in the Senate, his vote will become irrelevant.  Let's try for that.

You can hope but the last I saw the Dems were at or below every rock bottom marker for election support.  The (dem), author of the article was consoling the Dems by saying that they couldn't possibly get record breaking loss of seats because they didn't have enough in the first place to make a record.

We can hope but Biden is hardly leading a charge to change the balance in either the house or the senate.  Unless it's against him.

Hardly rock bottom, but Manchin is virtually certain to have a lot less influence after the election. If they hold the House they'll probably pick up a couple in the Senate.
60% probability to hold the Senate
20% to hold the House
https://fivethirtyeight.com/

That 60% probability means 50 seats or more, which means that Manchin will still hold significant sway.  The probability that the Dems take over the Senate, 51 seats or more, drops to 40%. 

NeilT

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Re: Next election
« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2022, 05:42:40 PM »
Indeed.  Though Biden has low popularity, most Americans favor Roe v. Wade, and aren't that happy with the SC's gun control decisions.  So the midterms and following elections are very much in play.

Low popularity is an understatement.

Politico says

Quote
In a bleak midterm election landscape for Democrats, Roe almost certainly won’t be enough to keep Republicans from winning the House

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/03/5-takeaways-from-august-2-primary-00049516

Back in June the image below shows the Gallup poll on Biden/Dem satisfaction.

That will play on the election and Roe may affect it.  It is just a matter of how much.  This will also impact the ability of the Dems to get through legislation for their climate agenda.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

The Walrus

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Re: Next election
« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2022, 06:42:51 PM »
Based on the history of approval ratings, the Dems can expect to lose almost 40 house seats.  It mattered not which party was in the White House.

kassy

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Re: Next election
« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2022, 08:18:43 PM »
Quote
This is very off-topic

Quite. Election stuff can go into politics.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

kassy

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Re: Next election
« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2022, 08:22:51 PM »
Moving some discussion related to the next US round of elections into Politics.

Edit: I missed some button somewhere. Oren could you please move this into politics? Thanks!
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

oren

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Re: Next election
« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2022, 12:18:06 AM »
Done  8)

The Walrus

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Re: Next election
« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2022, 02:06:48 PM »
A  July Gallup poll showed that the economy is the top issue on voter's minds this election (no surprise), followed closely by gun policy.  That is probably one plus and one minus for the Democratic party.  Compared to the 2018 midterms, the economy is a higher issue, while immigration and taxes are less important this year.  Gun policy and abortion are the highest since these polls have occurred.  Climate change is unchanged in importance over the past four years, and Russia has become an issue.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/394628/americans-intensity-running-high-midterms.aspx

nadir

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About the environment
« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2022, 04:03:23 PM »
I didn’t start this thread, for the record. I wasn’t thinking on the next election when I posted the OP in Oil & Gas issues thread.

The new law just passed in Congress, next to be signed by Biden. It is supposed to be a triumph for environment but it hides a huge gift for oil & gas companies, which will last for DECADES.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2022, 06:16:56 PM by nadir »

weatherdude88

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Re: Next election
« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2022, 04:57:21 PM »
My subjective view on US 2022 midterm elections (November 8th, 2022):

Statistical, analytical, and betting markets all have Republicans winning control of the house next month. Given the current inflation and geopolitical climate, it is very likely Republican's will win the house. Confidence is moderate to high.

When looking at the senate, 538's models have the Democrats controlling the senate. However, betting markets in the last month are now a toss-up and slightly giving the edge to Republicans. Keep in mind with OPEC + oil production of 2,000,000 barrels per day cut, may edge gas prices upward leading up to election day (I have already noticed an increase in my area). Senate is a toss-up, however given inflation, economic policy, and the tense geopolitical climate I am predicting Republicans will also control the senate. Confidence is low.



 

The Walrus

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Re: Next election
« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2022, 07:47:28 PM »
I tend to agree with you concerning the House.  The latest CNN analysis concurs.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/10/13/politics/cnn-poll-voter-preferences/index.html

However, I give a slight edge to the Democrats in the Senate.  It all comes down to 3 Races, unless something dramatic happens in some others.  Therese are GA, PA, and NV.  The Democrats appear poised to win the PA seat, and Republicans in NV.  That leaves Georgia, which is likely headed to a December runoff, unless someone exceeds 50% (the latest GA trend).  This one is close, but I see the Dems prevailing here, if just barely.


weatherdude88

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Re: Next election
« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2022, 03:14:01 PM »


Betting markets show strong Republican momentum in the last 30 days. Betting markets now favor Republicans to win the senate, and to win the house by a larger margin.

The Walrus

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Re: Next election
« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2022, 06:59:35 PM »
Interesting.  I wonder what they know, because it appears that control will come down to whichever party can win two of the three closest races; GA, PA, and NV.  It looks like PA will turn blue, with NV turning red, and GA heding towards a December runoff (again). 

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Re: Next election
« Reply #20 on: October 21, 2022, 11:07:28 PM »
I find it interesting that betting sites are becoming more credible on predicting the next election than polls.

The Walrus

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Re: Next election
« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2022, 02:56:35 PM »
I find it interesting that betting sites are becoming more credible on predicting the next election than polls.

When you think about it, polls are just opinions, but when people are willing to bet money, that says more. 

trm1958

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Re: Next election
« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2022, 03:39:12 PM »
I find it interesting that betting sites are becoming more credible on predicting the next election than polls.

When you think about it, polls are just opinions, but when people are willing to bet money, that says more.

I don't often agree with you, Odobenus rosmarus, but that is a good point.

LeftyLarry

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Re: Next election
« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2022, 05:44:45 AM »
Interesting.  I wonder what they know, because it appears that control will come down to whichever party can win two of the three closest races; GA, PA, and NV.  It looks like PA will turn blue, with NV turning red, and GA heding towards a December runoff (again).

Things are very fluid in Pa race.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/10/23/pa-poll-gops-mehmet-oz-takes-lead-in-pennsylvania/

The Walrus

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Re: Next election
« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2022, 04:05:46 PM »
Interesting.  I wonder what they know, because it appears that control will come down to whichever party can win two of the three closest races; GA, PA, and NV.  It looks like PA will turn blue, with NV turning red, and GA heding towards a December runoff (again).

Things are very fluid in Pa race.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/10/23/pa-poll-gops-mehmet-oz-takes-lead-in-pennsylvania/

Yes, it appears that Fetterman's stroke is becoming a huge campaign issue there.

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Re: Next election
« Reply #25 on: October 24, 2022, 07:12:32 PM »
I find it interesting that betting sites are becoming more credible on predicting the next election than polls.

When you think about it, polls are just opinions, but when people are willing to bet money, that says more. 
Personally I think poles can be heavily influenced by how they are asked and administered. Most news sites are pushing one agenda or the other. I am not convinced betting sites are better informed just less biased.

The Walrus

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Re: Next election
« Reply #26 on: October 24, 2022, 11:17:50 PM »
I find it interesting that betting sites are becoming more credible on predicting the next election than polls.

When you think about it, polls are just opinions, but when people are willing to bet money, that says more. 
Personally I think poles can be heavily influenced by how they are asked and administered. Most news sites are pushing one agenda or the other. I am not convinced betting sites are better informed just less biased.

RCP shows that the polls tend to underestimate GOP votes.  Applying their adjustment, they project the Republicans to take a 53-47 advantage in the Senate, winning PA, GA, NV, and AZ!

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/elections-map-rcp-projection.html

weatherdude88

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Re: Next election
« Reply #27 on: October 26, 2022, 06:15:48 AM »


I have never seen the betting markets move this significantly in a Senate race after a 1 hour debate. PA is a crucial battleground state for control of the Senate.

Before the debate betting markets were even in PA. Now they heavily favor the Republican canidate Dr. Oz. Fetterman the democratic candidate, did have a stroke several months ago, and this was his first and only debate. It was a mistake for him to agree to this debate.

Here is left leaning CNN (pro Fetterman).
Quote
Throughout the night, Fetterman’s delivery was at times halting and repetitive, with the Democrat – who suffered a stroke in May – dropping words during answers and occasionally losing his train of thought. Much of the attention heading into the debate was on Fetterman’s ongoing recovery and how his struggle with auditory processing and speech could impact a debate against someone who rose to national prominence hosting a syndicated television show.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/politics/fetterman-oz-debate-pa-senate-takeaways/index.html

Here is a clip of him trying to answer a question on his different statements on fracking:

https://twitter.com/JJHunt10/status/1585067250507452416?t=Rtg0rJMc2La_7NV9p0JISw&s=19


The Walrus

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Re: Next election
« Reply #28 on: October 28, 2022, 05:36:48 PM »
What is just as bad for the Democrats as falling poll numbers is the trend in third party voters switching to the GOP.  This is what happended in 2016, when Johnson polled at close to 10%, but dropped to just over 3% on election night (many of those voting for Trump).  As a case in point, Pennsylvanina was one of the closest races in 2016 (Trump winning by a mere 0.7%).  One month before the election, the polls were Clinton 47.7%, Trump 43.8%, and Johnson 7.2%.  The final tally was Clinton 47.5%, Trump 48.2%, and Johnson 2.4%.  Almost all of Trumps support came from voters opting to drop their support for the third party candidate.  FYI, the current polling average  (last 4 polls) in PA are Fetterman 46.8%, Oz 46.3%, 3.7% third party, and 3.2% undecided.  It is not looking good for the Dems in the Keystone state.

Many of the other senate races have a third party candidate polling at 2% or above (NH, AZ, PA, GA, NV, and NC) and/or a significant number of undecideds.  That may not sound like much, but in these close races, it might make the difference, and in Georgia, it is likely enough to force a December runoff (again). 

This is the main reason why 538 was so far off in 2016, predicting Clinton to win PA, MI, NC, WI, and FL and the presidency.  They correctly picked Biden in 2020, but that was largely due to higher polling margins for Biden prior to election day.  The 538 polling margin in the 10 closest states favored Biden by 3.3%.  The actual results favored Trump by 1.3%, for a 4.6% error - larger than the posted margin of error by most pollster (3-4%).  Historically, the largest polling biases in the Dems favor have been Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (all but Michigan have a senate race this year).  Consequently, any state in which the Democratic candidate is not polling over 50% should be considered a toss-up, even New Hampshire, where Hassan is polling at around 49%.  While I think she will eventually win out, it will likely be close.