no one seems to care and BAU goes on.
i'm getting cynical about AGW
going high on forecast
Indeed. No one in my contact sphere is restraining themselves in any way, even those working for environmental groups. They're taking long trips in low mileage campers, airplane flights for inessential travel, organic winter vegetables flown in from Chile, mitigation by planting trees that would have been planted anyway only to burn, and lining up bolt-holes (a rabbitry term) in New Zealand, Iceland, Costa Rica and Vermont.
No sensible rabbit would consider depredating a fenced garden without preparing a hasty hidden exit. And that is what the leadership is doing; they see gardening forums as doom-scrolling.
Looking myself for online guidance, the current priorities seem to be isolation, food growing and currently too-cool climate. Since climate change cannot really be avoided, the emphasis is on physical isolation, avoiding the billions of desperate migrants.
https://earth.org/best-places-to-live-to-avoid-climate-change/I read up on the 1947 Partition of India to get a sense of poorly administered mass migration. It was horrific on a vast scale and still ongoing. The wealthy of today want no part of anything like that, such as staying in Europe.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_IndiaThere's never enough money to go round so only a select few can afford sailing yachts and private planes. That is, it's not so easy to get to New Zealand during or after a crash. And they might not take you even if some prior asset foothold had been established.
I don't fancy Vermont. The soil is terrible, the forests will all burn and it's too accessible. There are some 175 million increasingly desperate people in Central American alone. Could that be offset by 175 million of us moving to 100x200 sq mile Costa Rica (plus Panama and PR)?
Build a 30 foot wall and they will bring a 31 foot ladder? Urban myth, they bring a cordless sawzall or angle grinder instead. It takes only minutes to cut through the border barrier’s steel-and-concrete bollards; some 3,272 instances of that by March 2022 in Arizona alone. The border is 3000 km long with some 300 million crossings per year.
I don't think it will play out like this -- forced voluntary simplicity, mandatory ebikes, policing brutality. Too many trophy homes end up stranded assets.
More likely, another engineered virus will 'escape' and take out the 95% who were told to take the latest 'flu' vaccine but didn't (left out of the loop). Too much was learned by too many from covid19.
So, which CO2 pathway are we on etc, deserves separate consideration of sudden mass population depletion scenarios.
Forget methane, the key variable is the help. Reagan raised this back in the 1970's. If only the privileged are left, who milks the cows? Deplorables are still needed, just not too many.
Climate change doesn't stop just because emissions and consumption plummet, various tipping points are already baked in. However it surely moderates over what it would have been under continuing BAU.