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Poll: When will Nares Strait be next blocked by an ice arch?

Feb 2023
0 (0%)
Mar 1-15, 2023
0 (0%)
Mar 16-31, 2023
0 (0%)
Apr 2023
1 (4.8%)
May-Nov 2023
1 (4.8%)
Dec 2023
2 (9.5%)
Jan-Mar 2024
8 (38.1%)
Nov-Dec 2024
1 (4.8%)
not until 2025 or later
8 (38.1%)

Total Members Voted: 21

Voting closed: February 20, 2023, 11:50:35 PM

Author Topic: Nares Strait Closure (or Not) 2023  (Read 1609 times)

Tor Bejnar

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Nares Strait Closure (or Not) 2023
« on: February 15, 2023, 11:50:35 PM »
Definitions:
Blockage must occur within the strait.  Arches within Lincoln Sea don't count.
Blockage requires 72 hours of apparent no movement in the relevant area.
Blockage caused by an iceberg is fair game.

Poll will remain open for 5 days.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Nares Strait Closure (or Not) 2023
« Reply #1 on: February 15, 2023, 11:53:25 PM »
Here is Niall's evaluation of Arch formation data from January 2022. The latest date is April 1st, 2008.


Just got buried in the thread, Tor. Here it is :

2021 - December 5th (2020).
2020 - December 17 (2019)
2019 - No arch
2018 - March 1st
2017 - No arch (in the strait proper)
2016 - December 6th (2015)
2015 - February 13th
2014 - January 5th (northern arch started - southern just after)
2013 - November 8th (2012)
2012 - December 6th (2011)
2011 - January 29th
2010 - No arch
2009 - Visible sat image shows arch at extreme north end of channel on March 10. Start date was sometime before this.
2008 - April 1st
2007 - No arch
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

oren

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Re: Nares Strait Closure (or Not) 2023
« Reply #2 on: February 16, 2023, 12:48:31 AM »
I think no arch this year, the way things look. And next year, probably yes. So Dec 2023.

Though I prefer the criteria to be a Lincoln arch and/or Kane basin arch - anything that blocks export of thick ice from the CAB. And a week, rather than 72 hours which can lead to false alarms.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Nares Strait Closure (or Not) 2023
« Reply #3 on: February 16, 2023, 03:50:12 AM »
Oren,
We could have dueling polls!  ;) :P
A duel, oh goodie!  Choice of weapon? Pistols? Sabers? Naw ...
polls
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

oren

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Re: Nares Strait Closure (or Not) 2023
« Reply #4 on: February 16, 2023, 07:50:19 AM »
Nah, duel declined... I perfer to vote with my personal caveats, and leave the good folk who run recurring polls to their business.

be cause

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Re: Nares Strait Closure (or Not) 2023
« Reply #5 on: February 19, 2023, 11:40:11 AM »
I continue to be confident there will be no closure this year so expect one anytime :)
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John_the_Younger

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Re: Nares Strait Closure (or Not) 2023
« Reply #6 on: April 04, 2023, 02:43:32 AM »
Will it hold for 3 days? Do we have a single winner?
An arch formed on April 1, 2008, so maybe ...
When, exactly, did this arch form?
Well I was certainly wrong and did not think an ice arch would form in the Nares Strait, but it looks like that finally happened. That said, according to Windy, it looks like there are 27kt winds blowing south thru the Strait today, so perhaps that will break it. Nonetheless, I don't suspect it lasting all that long given we are going into summer.

This screen capture from WorldView is from 4/2; the gif I made is from 3/22-4-2:

gerontocrat

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Re: Nares Strait Closure (or Not) 2023
« Reply #7 on: April 04, 2023, 09:09:11 AM »
Will it hold for 3 days? Do we have a single winner?
An arch formed on April 1, 2008, so maybe ...
When, exactly, did this arch form?
Well I was certainly wrong and did not think an ice arch would form in the Nares Strait, but it looks like that finally happened. That said, according to Windy, it looks like there are 27kt winds blowing south thru the Strait today, so perhaps that will break it. Nonetheless, I don't suspect it lasting all that long given we are going into summer.

This screen capture from WorldView is from 4/2; the gif I made is from 3/22-4-2:
I would say the arch formed sometime between 30 and 31 March

See gif, click to run (runs 6 times) Images from https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kane.uk.php
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Niall Dollard

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Re: Nares Strait Closure (or Not) 2023
« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2023, 11:20:39 AM »
i agree with that Gero. It has been solid since March 30th.

Remarkably late this year - but it may still hold steady now until the end of June.

John_the_Younger

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Re: Nares Strait Closure (or Not) 2023
« Reply #9 on: April 04, 2023, 09:28:48 PM »
Wow: no winners!