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What will JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP) 2023 ASIE daily minimum be?

Above 5.25 km2
Between 4.75 and 5.25 million km^2
Between 4.50 and 5.00 million km^2
Between 4.25 and 4.75 million km^2
Between 4.00 and 4.50 million km^2
Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2
Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2
Between 3.25 and 3.75 million km^2
Between 3.00 and 3.50 million km^2
Between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2
Between 2.50 and 3.00 million km^2
Between 2.25 and 2.75 million km^2
Between 2.00 and 2.50 million km^2
Under 2.00 million km^2

Author Topic: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll  (Read 2242 times)

Juan C. García

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JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« on: June 01, 2023, 07:15:42 AM »
The poll is for the minimum Daily Arctic sea ice extent in 2023, as measured by ADS-NIPR-VISHOP (JAXA).

September minimums have been:
« Last Edit: June 11, 2023, 10:17:11 AM by oren »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2023, 08:30:54 AM »
Lacking any data whatsoever at this early stage I went for the typical/conservative 4.00-4.50. Thanks to Juan as usual for starting this traditional poll.

Freegrass

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2023, 09:19:49 AM »
Looking at the slow start, and in trend with the last 2 years, I gambled on 4.25 and 4.75 million km2.
When computers are set to evolve to be one million times faster and cheaper in ten years from now, then I think we should rule out all other predictions. Except for the one that we're all fucked...

NevB

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2023, 10:25:40 AM »

Between 3.75 and 4.25 million km^2

Nothing more than a mostly uniformed guess.

Paul

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2023, 12:10:43 PM »
Went for the 4.25 to 4.75 option also. Still could go lower if it's a warm summer but there is little to suggest at this moment in time that ice extent should be any different compared to what we seen in most years so far in the 2010s. I have noticed on worldview the ice seems more largely broken up into floes more widely this year which may increase the threat of dispersion occuring which could play a part in the latter part of the melt season.

gerontocrat

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2023, 10:05:15 PM »
3.5 to 4.0 for me, with a caveat about the ENSO update due of 8 June - that might make me change my mind.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2023, 07:42:12 PM »
Here is some data.

If sea ice extent losses from now to minimum are at the average of the last 10 years, then the JAXA  sea ice extent September minimum will be 4.51 million km2, with the range of the last 10 years from 3.95 to 4.82 million km2. A repeat of the 2012 outlier suggests a minimum of around 2.5 million km2, a repeat of 1996 5 million.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2023, 07:50:45 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2023, 09:58:59 PM »
My guess goes for the 4 ± 0.25 M bin, with a bet for the upper half of that bin.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

interstitial

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #8 on: June 03, 2023, 07:34:14 AM »
There is a big difference between the table presented by Juan and the graph by Gerontocrat. Which dataset is being used?


Is the first area and the second extent?

oren

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #9 on: June 03, 2023, 08:00:58 AM »
Juan shows 3.55 for 2020, Gero in his second chart shows 3.55 for 2020. So it seems a match, both are JAXA extents.
Gero's first chart shows the plume of this year's extent extrapolated using the losses of each year, and shows around 4.00 for 2020.

interstitial

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #10 on: June 03, 2023, 08:26:45 AM »
Juan shows 3.55 for 2020, Gero in his second chart shows 3.55 for 2020. So it seems a match, both are JAXA extents.
Gero's first chart shows the plume of this year's extent extrapolated using the losses of each year, and shows around 4.00 for 2020.
My mistake Gero is showing plumes not normal plots.

TheWanderingSloth

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #11 on: June 03, 2023, 11:55:22 AM »
The question of the poll says "What will JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP) 2022 ASIE daily minimum be?"
...I think we already know the answer...  ;)

oren

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #12 on: June 03, 2023, 01:28:00 PM »
Welcome, TWS!

gerontocrat

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #13 on: June 03, 2023, 01:39:41 PM »
Juan shows 3.55 for 2020, Gero in his second chart shows 3.55 for 2020. So it seems a match, both are JAXA extents.
Gero's first chart shows the plume of this year's extent extrapolated using the losses of each year, and shows around 4.00 for 2020.
My mistake Gero is showing plumes not normal plots.
Just to make it clear....

The plume graph takes the remaining sea ice extent losses of the previous 10 years and applies them to 2023 sea ice extent as of now. This gives a range of outcomes with the dotted line being the average outcome.

If nothing else it gives a hint as to the range of outcomes, which gets less as the season approaches its end.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Richard Rathbone

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #14 on: June 10, 2023, 08:05:40 PM »
4.25-4.5 (I actually voted 4.25-4.75 but it was a coin flip whether to take that or 4.0-4.5)

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #15 on: June 11, 2023, 06:09:47 AM »
The question of the poll says "What will JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP) 2022 ASIE daily minimum be?"
...I think we already know the answer...  ;)

Sorry about that. :(
I went with "Above 5.25 km2", that is sure to happen!    :o    ;D

I will fix both things on the next poll.   ::)

Anyway, I am voting on the 4-4.5 million km2.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2023, 06:17:49 AM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #16 on: June 11, 2023, 10:17:41 AM »
I changed it to 2023.

Juan C. García

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #17 on: June 11, 2023, 01:37:23 PM »
Here are the two mistakes. They are still there, but the poll is closed.
Sorry that I made them. I was traveling and I did the poll fast.
I will be more careful next month.

« Last Edit: June 11, 2023, 01:47:35 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #18 on: June 11, 2023, 01:47:34 PM »
I have also now edited the heading. Can't move your mistaken vote though.
And again, many thanks to you Juan for making these polls.

oren

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #19 on: September 19, 2023, 05:48:55 PM »
With the minimum of 4.135 Mkm2 on Sep 16th, 18 out of 44 June voters got it right, quite a good result.

Renerpho

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #20 on: September 19, 2023, 07:19:10 PM »
Is this poll supposed to still be open? (I just tried to vote, as a test, and it counted my "under 2 million". I have already removed it.)
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

oren

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Re: JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: June Poll
« Reply #21 on: September 20, 2023, 01:26:02 AM »
For some reason it came with no end date or something, I just locked it.