Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

What will PIOMAS 2023 Arctic sea ice volume September average be?

Above 5.50 10^3 km^3
1 (3.3%)
Between 5.00 and 5.50 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 4.75 and 5.25 10^3 km^3
2 (6.7%)
Between 4.50 and 5.00 10^3 km^3
5 (16.7%)
Between 4.25 and 4.75 10^3 km^3
5 (16.7%)
Between 4.00 and 4.50 10^3 km^3
5 (16.7%)
Between 3.75 and 4.25 10^3 km^3
8 (26.7%)
Between 3.50 and 4.00 10^3 km^3
4 (13.3%)
Between 3.25 and 3.75 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Between 3.00 and 3.50 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)
Under 3.00 10^3 km^3
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 30

Voting closed: June 11, 2023, 10:27:07 PM

« previous next »
Pages: [1]   Go Down

Author Topic: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll  (Read 1512 times)

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3360
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1281
  • Likes Given: 1137
PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« on: June 01, 2023, 10:27:07 PM »
Values from the PIOMAS Monthly Ice Volume Data:
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/

I add a comparison against the 1979-2000 September Average. It is worrying to see that there are several years where we have less than half the ice, by volume.
Logged
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4345
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1086
  • Likes Given: 1340
Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2023, 03:04:57 AM »
For volume, I went a little lower than the previous 2 years because of all the Fram export we had this year. So I picked between 4.25 and 4.75.
Logged
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9967
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3665
  • Likes Given: 4233
Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2023, 07:12:26 AM »
The possible outcomes are really all over the place in this one. I went for a conservative 4.50-5.00.
Logged

Renerpho

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 687
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2023, 03:04:55 PM »
3.75-4.25 it is.
Logged
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

Stephan

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2772
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 775
  • Likes Given: 485
Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #4 on: June 02, 2023, 10:01:50 PM »
I think it will end in the 4.25-4.75 kkm³ bin.
Logged
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Richard Rathbone

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1870
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 412
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #5 on: June 04, 2023, 12:06:54 AM »
Quote from: Stephan on June 02, 2023, 10:01:50 PM
I think it will end in the 4.25-4.75 kkm³ bin.
This looks the most likely to me too. Not nailed on yet, but in the chasing pack rather than seriously challenging the lowest years.
Logged

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3360
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1281
  • Likes Given: 1137
Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2023, 06:25:27 AM »
Quote from: Richard Rathbone on June 04, 2023, 12:06:54 AM
Quote from: Stephan on June 02, 2023, 10:01:50 PM
I think it will end in the 4.25-4.75 kkm³ bin.
This looks the most likely to me too. Not nailed on yet, but in the chasing pack rather than seriously challenging the lowest years.
I vote on this bin too.

P.S. Around 16 hours to vote or change your vote.
Logged
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9967
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3665
  • Likes Given: 4233
Re: PIOMAS 2023 ASI Volume September Average: June poll
« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2023, 07:36:38 PM »
The final Sep avg was 4787 km3, as calculated by Gero. 7 out of 30 voters got the right bins. Most expected a lower result, but this season was a late bloomer.
Logged
Pages: [1]   Go Up
« previous next »