JAXA (ADS) 2023 Arctic SIE daily minimum: August Poll

[Juan C. García]

The poll is for the minimum Daily Arctic sea ice extent in 2023, as measured by ADS-NIPR-VISHOP (JAXA).

September minimums have been:

[oren]

Keeping my 4.00-4.50 vote for a 3rd time, despite the currently high extent, I think the prolonged cooking of the American side and the abnormal prolonged export gradient towards the Atlantic will have their impact eventually.

[Juan C. García]

I changed my vote one bin up, to 4.25-4.75 million km2. I think it is getting too late to have a change in the current trend.

P.S. Oren: Can you allow people to change their vote? I forgot to allow it when I did the poll.

[Stephan]

My best guess remains with the 4 ± 0.25 M km² bin, nevertheless I think the final result will be in the upper part of this range.

[oren]

P.S. Oren: Can you allow people to change their vote? I forgot to allow it when I did the poll.

Done. Thanks again Juan for making these polls.

[Chuck]

I’m going with 4.25-4.75. Average melt of the last ten years gives us a minimum of 4.65 and according to the July mid-month PIOMAS volume is higher than recent years. Might change my vote later depending on what happens in the next ten days.

[gerontocrat]

On average just under 80 percent of sea ice extent losses from maximum to minimum are done, with average daily sea ice extent losses now quickly declining and extent at 31 July 0.25 million km2 above the 2010's average.

However, sea ice area (NSIDC) is 0.09 million km2 below the 2010's average.

The range of outcomes from remaining melt in the last 10 years is 4.25 to 5 million km2. To get below 4 million km2 would need something approaching the 2012 event.

So will the remainder of the season be a non-event or will there be a late significant upturn in daily sea ice extent losses bringing sea ice extent more in line with sea ice area?

I'm going with the uptick, giving a final minimum around 4.35 million km2, i.e. bin 4 to 4.5 million km2. However, history suggests that my forecasts are at the best - garbage.

[Paul]

Keeping to my 4.25 to 4.75 prediction but Im thinking looking at the current ice distribution it's looking more likely we will have less ice this year in the Pacific regions than the last 2 years which may play a role in next year's melt season? Do think extent will finish below last year's figure also, around 4.3 to 4.4 I'm going to say.

[oren]

Currently at 4.558, the <4.50 bin is nearly guaranteed. I wonder if it can get to <4.25, it seems within reach. I very much doubt <4.00 is possible.
If it keeps between 4.25-4.50, it would cover 76% of the August poll votes (though only 40% of the June votes).

[Tom Stedman]

Might pass below last year's minimum and into the top 10 by first of September

[oren]

4.490 in hand, 4.00-4.50 voters are in play.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 1^st, 2023:
       4,440,403 km², a drop of -49,911 km².

With the current drop of 50K km², being below 4.25 million km² is very likely.
2023 will be one of the six lowest records. There is a possibility that it could become the third lowest.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

September 2^nd, 2023:
       4,417,224 km², a drop of -23,179 km².

I was expecting it to drop twice as much (like yesterday)...

[oren]

At 4.387, we are nearly halfway to the <4.25 bin. OTOH, the min could happen in a week or less, depending on the vagaries of weather.
In any case, 8th lowest is already in hand. A change of the bin will also guarantee a 6th lowest finish.

[Juan C. García]

 I believe that the minimum can take more than a week. The question is whether 2023 will follow the path of 2007 (with a little lesser drop over time). 2007 was characterized by taking a long time to start refreezing. With the high temperatures in the Atlantic, I think that refreezing may take time.

[oren]

Now it's official, extent dropped to 4.22 today. The highly popular 4.25-4.75 bin is no longer relevant, while the aggressive and unpopular 3.75-4.25 is in the running.
A top 6 finish is now in hand, with the next hurdle at 4.07 (2007).

Edit: fixed my errored bin demarcation.

[Paddy]

I should be feeling confident in my 4-4.5 guess now, but at the rate the ice is still shrinking it could come in under the 4 mark.

[Stephan]

"My" bin (3.75-4.25) now came into play and I am pretty sure that this will be the correct one.

[John_the_Younger]

It cannot be true: I always vote too low.  I was just trying to be a little more reasonable this time...

[HapHazard]

I voted on day 1 and flip-flopped between the current "on the mark" bins and 4.25-4.75. Ended up voting higher because I'm usually a bit low.

The only time I'm right is when I don't vote. It's the reason I never gamble, too. haha

[Paddy]

After today’s increase, it seems very likely the minimum was reached on the 16th, at 4,135,960 km2. I think we can call it a win for the 3.75 to 4.25 and 4.0 to 4.5 bins.

[oren]

Indeed.
Interestingly, only 13 out of 29 guessed correctly, even though voting closed just 5 weeks before the resultant minimum.
Just goes to show the Arctic is hard to predict.