From the other end of the heat engine of the world (tropics)

[Pmt111500]

Tropics/mid-latitudes relationship analysed for SH in the Pacific by Wang & Cai. SAM (Southern Annular Mode) vs. ENSO: http://www.nature.com/srep/2013/130620/srep02039/full/srep02039.html

[Tom_Mazanec]

The tropics are getting bigger:
https://www.21stcentech.com/tropics-bigger-50-kilometers-decade-world-warms/

[Archimid]

I see everyone posting graphs of average annual ENSO relative to the minimum extent. That's where the least ENSO influence is expected.

ENSO's affects the ice in two ways that I can think of.

1. Directly: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=global2&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5

The influence of warm pacific humidity on the ice is visually undeniable. The hotter it gets on the pacific the more humidity and warmth gets advected into the Arctic.

2. Indirectly: A positive ENSO means, in general, a warmer world. A warmer world means, in general, more ice melt. 

Then there is the problem of perspective. You are all looking at September minimum extent vs annual average ENSO.

ENSO must have it's maximum effect on thickness, not area.

ENSO must have it's highest effect on the Pacific side of the Arctic.

ASI response must have a lag to ENSO

ASI response to ENSO is much greater now that the thick ice is gone. 

By increasing water content in the atmosphere, snow fall might be increased, the oppossite applies to La Niña.

[Archimid]

True to form I forgot to mention that ENSO influence must be strongest during winter, not summer.  During winter WAA means a difference from -40 all the way to almost 0.

[binntho]

True to form I forgot to mention that ENSO influence must be strongest during winter, not summer.  During winter WAA means a difference from -40 all the way to almost 0.

Interesting with all the "must be" statements. Do you feel like substantiating them?

[binntho]

The problem with taking the discussion over in this forum is that most of the readers of the regular forum never look here, and so will miss all the fun!

[nanning]

I must be missing something. What fun?

[philopek]

The problem with taking the discussion over in this forum is that most of the readers of the regular forum never look here, and so will miss all the fun!

Quite many users sift through the "Show unread posts since last visit" list hence whenever you post here, many if not most will see what you have to tell them [last part JK]

No worries

@nanning

I think with fun there was no special meaning like real fun but it's kind of slang or common term to express things like missing something, missing the show etc would be similar terms, not meaning that there is a "show" in the common meaning going on or taking place.

[binntho]

The eternal conundrum: Should we take things lightly or literally!

[philopek]

The eternal conundrum: Should we take things lightly or literally!

You mention it:

I think all the nitpicking replies of which this and any other forum is full of would not even be that much of an issue if the general undertone would be a bit more humorous instead of destructive criticism.

It's important to understand what the core message is and forgive small mistakes due to language barriers and speed of writing etc.

On the other hand, reading a lot (6-8 hours a day) I can see that it's not always welcome if someone is trying to touch the roots of a problem or situation, most people prefer to discuss
symptoms only.

The root cause for almost all problems touched in this forum are due to lack of human ethics, greed, powers seeking, profiling neuroses etc. and even though many claim to be willing to fight
AGW they refuse to discuss the root cause but insist to stay On Topic while those topics are mostly only the symptoms and any discussions about solutions would automatically be OFF TOPIC.

Therefore the task to deal with such things is not easy at all. For me the limit is always when those with a bigger picture in mind are called names or discarded as OT blahblah...

Unfortunately there is no simple solution for this because we have to deal with people how they are and pick them up where they are, else all efforts will evaporate, be in vain.

[Killian]

I see everyone posting graphs of average annual ENSO relative to the minimum extent. That's where the least ENSO influence is expected.

I don't see why this would be. Regardless of the time of year energy is transferred, is it not the total transferred that matters in the end? If an EN, for example, pushes ice melt in the Spring, that's still less ice to be melted. Etc.

ENSO's affects the ice in two ways that I can think of.

1. Directly: The influence of warm pacific humidity on the ice is visually undeniable.

Yes, I know of two studies that say this, though they looked at/found different effects, iirc.

2. Indirectly: A positive ENSO means, in general, a warmer world. A warmer world means, in general, more ice melt.

This would seem logical, yes. Scientific? Should be, but... the pedant(s) will say if not proven, it's not so!

I agree with you.

Then there is the problem of perspective. You are all looking at September minimum extent vs annual average ENSO.

In my case, I'm looking at your second effect. I think the immediate effect of heat and misture is clearly happening, but is the goosing of atmospheric heat content and ocean surface heat content having a long-term effect that comes into play directly with the ice? I think there is enough correlation for investigation. (Others disagree, but who cares? If I like ice cream and you don't, I go buy some, you don't. Don't go throwing out others' ice cream because you don't like ice cream, go do something else!

ENSO must have it's highest effect on the Pacific side of the Arctic.

It seems some of the effects in one or both of the papers I saw was a counter-intuitive response w/ effects in unexpected places, but I may be misremembering. However, wrt to ocean surface heat, or other, content, it would seem this would be true.

ASI response must have a lag to ENSO

Given how long it takes for the world's oceans' water to move about the planet, agreed.

ASI response to ENSO is much greater now that the thick ice is gone.

Logical, but true? As stated elsewhere, yes, I think so.

By increasing water content in the atmosphere, snow fall might be increased, the oppossite applies to La Niña.

I have never looked at this issue. Insulating effect? Melt effect? Hmmm...

If interested, here is my metric: Two years from the end an El Nino should show some relatively low numbers in one or more of the three measures that are commonly used: ASIE, ASIA, and/or ASIV. (****I have only looked at extent.**** I have no opinion at present whether there is a correlation with area or volume.) There is often a near-low and some actual lows during this time frame in far more than 50% of the cases. If there were no effect, and a couple here have cherry-picked - and poorly did so, literally choosing two out of a long list that they thought did not meet the criteria - but you should not see an EN and a relatively low measurement far more than 50% of the time if there is zero effect. It should be completely random, and is not.

Is it an artifact of the nature of the two data sets, thus correlation without causation? Possible. But I don't think so. E.g., if EN has a negative effect on the ASI, should LN not have a positive one in some way? Yet, I found no correlation with LN at all. Not difinitive, but that finding increased my confidence there is some effect here.

Cheers

[Killian]

Moving this comment I wrote to binn here:

Associated how?

First, cherry picking is the domain of the intellectually dishonest - don't do it if you want to be taken seriously. The record goes back to 1953. Not ever year will have a clear - or any - correlation. That does not mean there is none for the larger data set.

This should be obvious.

Your problem is, rather than be curious, research, investigate, you made up your mind from the beginning, thus have yet to engage in a useful way at all.

'10 was not a low - one year positive ENSO, 2 years negative.

It was 3rd, good enough for the theory, though I prefer 1st or 2nd. A 3rd lowest indicates some energy having an effect, however.

It you're going to call out a theory, make sure you base it on the theory and not a post made in haste four years later. The original list is readily available to you. 11 was not on it. In fact, almost no years were identified. You can pull up the charts for ASIE. Like I did.

I did not have Charctic or JAXA's available when I did this. I went out and found two low res graphs and eyeballed it. It was an interesting idea written up as a post on the internet, not a damned research paper.

(Note: 1953 is first drop in ASIE, iirc, so New Low.)

EN ’51 – ’54 = inception of ASI Extent decline.
EN ’57 – ’59 = Near New Low/New Low
EN ’65 – ’66 = Near New Low/New Low
EN ’68 – ’70 = New Low
EN ’72 – ’73 = possible correlation, some delay
EN ’76 – ’78 = New Low
EN ’79 – ’80 = New Low
EN ’82 – ’83 = New Low
EN ’86 – ’88 = New Low (’89,’90)
EN ’94 – ’95 = New Low
EN ’97 – ’98 = Drop from Previous (?)
EN ’04 – ’05 = Near New Low/New Low
EN ’04 – ’05/’06 – ’07 = New Low
EN ’09 – ’10 = New Low (’10, ’12)
EN ’15 – ’16 = New Low ’16,’17?

Out of fifteen identified EN events, some coupled, thirteen were followed within two years by a new ASIE record low. Yet, you chime in with:

I'm not seeing any rythm here.

If you are claiming any skill whatsoever in math, analysis, ASI, and can look at a record of 86.66% correlation and say there's nothing to see here, no pattern, you should seriously consider not spending any further time on the issue of ASI.

[Mozi]

Killian, your insults outweigh your insights by a great margin.

[nanning]

Killian, please stop with being so agressive. Try to communicate without emotions. You seem angry and are unkind.

[Killian]

I said nothing rude to binntho. They, however, repeatedly misrepresented what I have presented. Cherry picking is lying. It intentiinally distorts another person's words. Why would one not say so?

You both have a weird sense of what is aggressive and rude. And perhaps you should read binntho's comments on the other thread before coming at me w/o objectivity.

I'm not aggressive, I just don't put up with bullshit.  Please look up both "rude" and "aggressive", then go read binntho's other comments and re-read your own.

Attacking style is intolerant, a kind of bigotry that is far too common. Not an insult, an observation and fact. I addressed binntho's actual repeated dishonest behavior, not his/her style.

[nanning]

Killian, it is not OK because he is doing it too. I think you know that is not an excuse. Be above it.

Covert agression.

You both have a weird sense of what is aggressive and rude

I'm not going to engage further, sorry to have disturbed the discussion, but these phrases are abrasive and covert agressive in my view:
"First, cherry picking is the domain of the intellectually dishonest"
"This should be obvious."
"Your problem is, rather than be curious, research, investigate,"
"If you are claiming any skill whatsoever in math, analysis, ASI, "
"you should seriously consider not spending any further time on the issue of ASI"

[Killian]

Killian, it is not OK because he is doing it too. I think you know that is not an excuse. Be above it.

Covert agression.

You both have a weird sense of what is aggressive and rude

I'm not going to engage further, sorry to have disturbed the discussion, but these phrases are abrasive and covert agressive in my view:
"First, cherry picking is the domain of the intellectually dishonest"
"This should be obvious."
"Your problem is, rather than be curious, research, investigate,"
"If you are claiming any skill whatsoever in math, analysis, ASI, "
"you should seriously consider not spending any further time on the issue of ASI"

I do not attend your church: https://www.autostraddle.com/kin-aesthetics-excommunicate-me-from-the-church-of-social-justice-386640/

[Sterks]

True to form I forgot to mention that ENSO influence must be strongest during winter, not summer.  During winter WAA means a difference from -40 all the way to almost 0.

You also forgot that one must not confuse ENSO variations with PDO cycles, which switched to positive in 2014 I think and which has an effect on the gradual disappearance of Bering Sea ice in early spring since 2015, low maxima, and probably the early advance of ice edge into Chukchi sea.

I don't think those are due to el niño.

[Sterks]

Killian, it is not OK because he is doing it too. I think you know that is not an excuse. Be above it.

Covert agression.

You both have a weird sense of what is aggressive and rude

I'm not going to engage further, sorry to have disturbed the discussion, but these phrases are abrasive and covert agressive in my view:
"First, cherry picking is the domain of the intellectually dishonest"
"This should be obvious."
"Your problem is, rather than be curious, research, investigate,"
"If you are claiming any skill whatsoever in math, analysis, ASI, "
"you should seriously consider not spending any further time on the issue of ASI"

I do not attend your church: https://www.autostraddle.com/kin-aesthetics-excommunicate-me-from-the-church-of-social-justice-386640/

Then, don't react, or be triggered, by the criticism of others. That I've seen in those SJW idiots.
Be prepared to respond. but you tend to escalate, like the average SJW.

[DrTskoul]

SJW?

[Pmt111500]

Standard juvenile white Lol

[DrTskoul]

Standard juvenile white Lol

I guess everything had a standard...

[Killian]

I watched "Stand By Me" with my son tonight.

The banter here is even more juvenile... from adults.