Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2023/2024 freezing season  (Read 68616 times)

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3802
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 944
  • Likes Given: 1244
The 2023/2024 freezing season
« on: September 19, 2023, 04:42:38 PM »
Here you go Oren. Gonna be a special year with this extreme El Niño...
90% of the world is religious, but somehow "love thy neighbour" became "fuck thy neighbours", if they don't agree with your point of view.

WTF happened?

uniquorn

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5115
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2158
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2023, 07:40:15 PM »
Good buoy coverage from Meereisportal and Argo floats on the Atlantic side this year.

7 ocean buoys
20 velocity profilers
2 radiation stations
9 snow buoys
13 thermistor buoys
also drift of 2 whoi itp's

8 argo floats

3D example of temperatures from 0-75m length from 2023o17. The 100m cable on 2023o17 must have been at nearly 45° during the storm on sep9. Pressure vs temperature shown in last image.

Renerpho

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 536
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 231
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2023, 01:09:04 AM »
Thanks for starting the topic, Freegrass!

Let's hope for another boring one.
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

John_the_Younger

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 380
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 52
  • Likes Given: 126
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2023, 03:06:25 AM »
Freezing season: hope for excitingly impressive ice growth!  :)

sadmird

  • New ice
  • Posts: 8
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2023, 06:06:13 AM »
Another JAXA increase with 15,045 km2 of ice on September 19th.

Judging from Climate Reanalyzer's forecast for the next 1-3 days, things will remain not so well aligned with a quick refreeze and the similar pattern of above-average temperatures is anticipated to last even on 4-6 and 7-10 days prognosis:






oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9783
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3582
  • Likes Given: 3894
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2023, 08:34:11 AM »
Welcome, sadmird!

uniquorn

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5115
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2158
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2023, 09:44:37 AM »
Interesting summary on this year's melt season from meereisportal

https://www.meereisportal.de/en/news-overview/news-detail-view/arctic-sea-ice-minimum-reached-in-summer

In summary, the current situation in the Arctic differs considerably from past summers, though it doesn’t represent a break with the general trend of progressive ice loss in summer.

By their figures, the minimum Arctic sea-ice extent, at 4.33 million km², was most probably reached on 15 September  (Figure 1), putting it at 7th place in the sequence of minima since 1979.

Their commentary relates to the condition of the ice in the area they have explored this year - which is near the north Pole and over to the Russian side. Some comments :

"Thanks to the steady flow of new ice from the north, parts of the Russian marginal seas still have relatively high ice cover. As Dr Thomas Krumpen, a sea-ice physicist at the AWI, adds: “This can also be seen in the ice thickness. Readings taken in the Arctic with the EM-Bird and a research aeroplane, and from on board our research icebreaker Polarstern, confirm higher ice thicknesses than generally seen in the past 15 years in the surveyed areas north of Greenland and in the eastern Arctic – a further indicator that the melting rates were lower this summer."

Readings taken on-site show that this year, uncharacteristically few melt ponds have formed on the ice; at the same time, there seems to have been a great deal of snow. "We suspect that there was surface melting early in the summer, in June and July, but that it soon ended, which would explain the current situation. Afterwards, the surface refroze and was covered in snow"

.In addition, the researchers found far more multiyear ice than expected. This is due to the fact that the sea ice (somewhat atypically) largely came from farther to the northwest and less from the Russian shelf seas. As a result, much of the ice had already survived a summer melting.

“Nevertheless, generally speaking, we can say that the majority of the loss of mass, that is, the loss of thickness, took place on the underside of the ice, not the surface. In our ice cores, the underside showed extensive melting, which we can also clearly see in all the videos we took with our ROV (Remote Operated Vehicle): The underside of the ice has melted very ‘smoothly’,”

Here's a still image fromt the undersea video taken on 200823.

They hope to lauch the roving camera again at 08 UTC tomorrow Wed 20th.



Livestream starts in 15m
Delayed 30m to 08:30UTC due to polar bear nearby


« Last Edit: September 20, 2023, 09:59:14 AM by uniquorn »

nadir

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2083
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 248
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #7 on: September 20, 2023, 05:56:45 PM »
Another JAXA increase with 15,045 km2 of ice on September 19th.

Judging from Climate Reanalyzer's forecast for the next 1-3 days, things will remain not so well aligned with a quick refreeze and the similar pattern of above-average temperatures is anticipated to last even on 4-6 and 7-10 days prognosis:

Windy weather also doesn’t favor quick refreeze but as soon as it abates we should see some acceleration in refreezing despite being anomalously warm (it’s getting colder up there!)

It’s interesting to observe a carrousel of Atlantic storms that continue collating in or around Kara in the forecasts, including hurricane extratropical remains. Early injection of humidity into the Arctic? Will this be a similar season to 2016 in that sense?

kiwichick16

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 78
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2023, 01:41:14 AM »
Area gain at or below trend since 28th August

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2429
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1008
  • Likes Given: 1024
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #9 on: September 21, 2023, 02:49:50 AM »
 ^^weather conditions and forecasts suggest this trend will continue for some time , with 2023 undertaking 2012 as area 'freeze' and melt remain balanced
Conflict is the root of all evil , for being blind it does not see whom it attacks . Yet it always attacks the Son Of God , and the Son of God is you .

Michael Hauber

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1113
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 168
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2023, 01:24:57 AM »
Is there any actual refreeze going on (as in new sea ice forming over ocean water)?  Or sensors just registering higher as the surface becomes more frozen and melt ponds freeze over?  As far as I can see no actual ocean freezing is going on and its only limitations of the sensors that are registering increases in extent and area.  Some of the coldest temps are near north end of Greenland currently and the fjiords on North Greenland and Ellesmere should also cool down quicker than ocean surrounded by land.  Can't definitely see any new ice there, but hard to tell if some of those grey smudges are just cloud or could be freezing over.

And would anyone care to speculate what this low pressure system EC currently has at day 4 will do to the ice?  Thats some serious transport and waves hitting the Laptev.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2023, 01:32:29 AM by Michael Hauber »
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

KenB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 149
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2023, 02:22:11 AM »
...  Some of the coldest temps are near north end of Greenland currently and the fjiords on North Greenland and Ellesmere should also cool down quicker than ocean surrounded by land.  Can't definitely see any new ice there, but hard to tell if some of those grey smudges are just cloud or could be freezing over.

Along these lines, I've been watching Lake Hazen just south of Alert on Worldview.  This is a freshwater lake and as of yesterday, it doesn't seem to be showing any sign of freezing over, although the land around clearly has a lot of fresh snow.  But if fairly still, fresh water isn't freezing over yet, what chance does seawater have?
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

Renerpho

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 536
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 231
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2023, 02:28:01 AM »
Along these lines, I've been watching Lake Hazen just south of Alert on Worldview.  This is a freshwater lake and as of yesterday, it doesn't seem to be showing any sign of freezing over, although the land around clearly has a lot of fresh snow.  But if fairly still, fresh water isn't freezing over yet, what chance does seawater have?

Do you know when that lake usually freezes over?
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

Niall Dollard

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1145
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 456
  • Likes Given: 116
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2023, 08:32:41 AM »
This nature article has detailed ice phenology of Lake Hazen.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03685-z

Needless to say it has shown considerable changes since the large Arctic warming this century

Niall Dollard

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1145
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 456
  • Likes Given: 116
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2023, 08:41:08 AM »
Re Michael Hauber's question re refreeze, I dont think there is a whole lot going on yet. Null school has been showing the necessary less than-10°C temps only at small sections of the CAB and north of Greenland. But definitely not widespread.

Polarstern has reported and made a video of new ice at 88N earlier this month. Grainy still image attached.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6245
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 885
  • Likes Given: 86
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2023, 12:50:11 PM »
Is there any actual refreeze going on (as in new sea ice forming over ocean water)?

The Canadian Ice Service charts show new ice in Baffin Bay and the CAA, but not yet in the Beaufort Sea:
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Renerpho

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 536
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 231
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2023, 05:03:14 PM »
This nature article has detailed ice phenology of Lake Hazen.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03685-z

Needless to say it has shown considerable changes since the large Arctic warming this century

Thanks Niall. If I interpret figure 3 correctly, the onset of freeze-up used to be around DOY 239 (27 August) on average in 2000, with the latest date in that figure around DOY 255 (12 September) in 2012, and a trend of being delayed by about 0.3 days per year. We are at DOY 265 (22 September) now. If what KenB says is correct and freeze-up has not started yet then we are about a month behind when the sea used to freeze over in the 20th century, and about 20 days behind the trend.
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

KenB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 149
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #17 on: September 23, 2023, 05:39:36 PM »
This nature article has detailed ice phenology of Lake Hazen.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03685-z

Needless to say it has shown considerable changes since the large Arctic warming this century

Thanks Niall!  Interesting article indeed.  I do note that looking at Worldview, it seems like Lake Hazen was never more than about 50% ice-free in 2022.  Other years there seem to be quite a bit of open water even into October (by Oct. 5th or so, Worldview imagery has the N. pole hole large enough to occlude the lake). 

I doubt I'll ever manage it, but visiting Alert, Lake Hazen, and the Canadian side of the Nares is somewhere on my bucket list. 
"When the melt ponds drain apparent compaction goes up because the satellite sees ice, not water in ponds." - FOoW

johnm33

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 746
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 124
  • Likes Given: 125
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #18 on: September 23, 2023, 08:34:22 PM »
I'm not exactly expecting a new low but we could see a dip in some metrics occasionally over the next few [7] days.

Supak

  • New ice
  • Posts: 19
  • Professional predictor at Kalshi.com
    • View Profile
    • Supak.com
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 124
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2023, 03:47:16 PM »
I'm not exactly expecting a new low but we could see a dip in some metrics occasionally over the next few [7] days.

Makes me wonder what this would've done 2 weeks ago.

“We are living in an interminable succession of absurdities imposed by the myopic logic of short-term thinking.”
—Jacques-Yves Cousteau

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2429
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1008
  • Likes Given: 1024
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2023, 04:46:44 PM »
today there are signs of a refreeze underway in the clear gap between 80-82N and 152-162E , where there were still signs of melt a few days ago .

 ps .. as highlighted below by Michael .

pps  this area is exposed to moderate relatively warm winds over the coming week . Waves to @ 3m as well . One worth watching .

« Last Edit: September 25, 2023, 01:45:04 AM by be cause »
Conflict is the root of all evil , for being blind it does not see whom it attacks . Yet it always attacks the Son Of God , and the Son of God is you .

Michael Hauber

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1113
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 168
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2023, 12:32:38 AM »
Yesterday I thought the swirly ice smoke near that area might be thickening but wasn't sure.  Now it looks like what was open water 2 or 3 days ago in between all the floes is entirely covered in new thin ice, and swirls of new ice also expanding beyond the old boundary of the remnant floes (top of image).  Temps are what I thought was mariginall for refreeze, but calm conditions under the center of the weak high.



Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3403
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 644
  • Likes Given: 240
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #22 on: September 25, 2023, 09:58:03 PM »
I'm not exactly expecting a new low but we could see a dip in some metrics occasionally over the next few [7] days.

Makes me wonder what this would've done 2 weeks ago.


Bad enough now.  Every day not spent refreezing (due to replacement heat flooding higher latitudes) is a day that will reduce end of season volume next April.
This space for Rent.

morganism

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 208
  • Likes Given: 110
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2023, 10:22:35 PM »
I thought the longer it is ice free, the more radiative heat loss in the ocean. Like boiling water to ice phase change.

Seems like we should welcome open area now, and hope for a big kick late...

pearscot

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 385
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 190
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #24 on: September 25, 2023, 10:42:14 PM »
Holy [cuss word] the Barrow web cam is FINALLY up an running after being out since 6/19. Too bad we missed some of the epic storms this summer. Still better late than never.

pls!

Renerpho

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 536
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 231
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #25 on: September 25, 2023, 11:14:49 PM »
Holy [cuss word] the Barrow web cam is FINALLY up an running after being out since 6/19.

That's really nice to see! The weather looks just like we know and love that place. Very grey.
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

oren

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9783
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3582
  • Likes Given: 3894
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #26 on: September 26, 2023, 12:53:42 AM »
An AMSR2 animation of sea ice concentration and movement in the central Arctic, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener institute (AWI), using the SIC-LEADS algorithm.
Source is mirrored on https://seaice.de/AMSR2_Central_Arctic_SIC-LEADS.gif

10-day ice drift average, courtesy of Steven's site. https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home/fram

The cumulative Fram extent export according to OSI-SAF.

Looking at the regional seas area according to AWI: CAB and Greenland sea are up sharply, Beaufort and Laptev are stable or even shrinking a bit, and CAA (shown below) is making a surprise move.

« Last Edit: September 26, 2023, 01:01:38 AM by oren »

pearscot

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 385
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 190
  • Likes Given: 65
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #27 on: September 26, 2023, 01:59:12 AM »
I wonder if elevated Fran Export will occur again this winter? It’s certainly possible and should shed some of the thicker ice on the arm toward the Laptev.
pls!

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2429
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1008
  • Likes Given: 1024
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #28 on: September 26, 2023, 02:16:07 PM »
even as export picks up and the forecasts are for much more of the same , I must remember the past is no indicator of the future  ( but it would be another one of my ducks lining up ) .
Conflict is the root of all evil , for being blind it does not see whom it attacks . Yet it always attacks the Son Of God , and the Son of God is you .

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20043
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5255
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #29 on: September 26, 2023, 09:19:24 PM »
The Greenland sea ice area graph suggests that Fram export continues at a high level.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Niall Dollard

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1145
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 456
  • Likes Given: 116
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #30 on: September 27, 2023, 12:36:20 AM »
The Greenland sea ice area graph suggests that Fram export continues at a high level.

Eyeballing the graph gives around 90,000km2 since Sept 11th.

i presume that majority to be export. There has been a strong northerly wind flow recently.

The same flow has kept Svalbard cool. Since Sept 10th temperatures have stayed below normal and many days 6° below normal.

I wonder how much of the increase in area is also due to new ice formation ?  These sentinel sat images on 24th show new ice forming in between the well off shore old ice and the coast of NE Greenland. 

nadir

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2083
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 248
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #31 on: September 27, 2023, 03:03:36 AM »
I thought the longer it is ice free, the more radiative heat loss in the ocean. Like boiling water to ice phase change.

Seems like we should welcome open area now, and hope for a big kick late...

It’s a knife with two edges. It may explain rebound years in part.
A blue Arctic would lead to the greatest ocean heat losses during Winter. So one might speculate that a blue Arctic would not be followed by another blue Arctic. Year-to-year periodic, quasi-periodic or chaotic behavior?

Paul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 571
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 133
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #32 on: September 27, 2023, 08:44:13 AM »
I thought the longer it is ice free, the more radiative heat loss in the ocean. Like boiling water to ice phase change.

Seems like we should welcome open area now, and hope for a big kick late...

It’s a knife with two edges. It may explain rebound years in part.
A blue Arctic would lead to the greatest ocean heat losses during Winter. So one might speculate that a blue Arctic would not be followed by another blue Arctic. Year-to-year periodic, quasi-periodic or chaotic behavior?

It's always an interesting debate whether it's better to have a fast refeeze or a slower one after a low minimum but I think it's inconclusive. Despite 2020 having a slow refreeze, it did not lead to a especially low(for modern times) minimum albeit we were briefly at record lows in July if I remember rightly but a very fast refeeze in 2008 for example may of helped to a higher extent in 2009 as the ice had more days under colder temperatures.

One thing for certain, less ice is going to lead to  an even slower formation of the PV and therefore even less refreezing time.

RoxTheGeologist

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 622
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 188
  • Likes Given: 149
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #33 on: September 27, 2023, 05:13:01 PM »
Assuming the surface of the ocean is warmer than ice then (everything else being equal) it will radiate more LIR and cool the earth more. Best not to cover your heat exchanger with a blanket.

Renerpho

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 536
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 231
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #34 on: September 27, 2023, 05:23:48 PM »
This is a cross-post from the 2023 Sea ice area and extent data thread. That may not be the best thread for those charts, which I intend to update once or twice a year. I am looking for a better home for them. If any of you have suggestions, let me know!

I missed Jim Pettit's excellent chart Arctic Sea Ice Extent Maximum & Minimum Day, which hasn't been updated since 2021... So I remade it myself. I have also added a corresponding chart for the freezing seasons (current season not yet included). The decadal averages show some trends that are hard to see when looking at single years.
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

John_the_Younger

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 380
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 52
  • Likes Given: 126
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #35 on: September 27, 2023, 07:24:41 PM »
Moved to here...
I miss Jim Pettit's excellent chart
So do I. Thanks for reproducing/updating it.

I once started to look at the date trends for each color change.  E.g., the date of reaching 14.0 (for example) million has gotten earlier over the decades.

One could take the data and calculate trends for not only even millions of km2, but for any number of km2 (I suggest every 0.1 million) and see if these trends suggest a pattern.  (Graphing them would be a disaster as the 100+ lines would roughly (but not completely) parallel each other, but analyzing the slopes might suggest something.) Could this analysis be used to project transitions for which there is currently limited data (like the 4.0 million threshold)?


Alexander55

  • New ice
  • Posts: 37
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #36 on: September 27, 2023, 09:18:49 PM »
I thought the longer it is ice free, the more radiative heat loss in the ocean. Like boiling water to ice phase change.

Seems like we should welcome open area now, and hope for a big kick late...

It’s a knife with two edges. It may explain rebound years in part.
A blue Arctic would lead to the greatest ocean heat losses during Winter. So one might speculate that a blue Arctic would not be followed by another blue Arctic. Year-to-year periodic, quasi-periodic or chaotic behavior?

It's always an interesting debate whether it's better to have a fast refeeze or a slower one after a low minimum but I think it's inconclusive. Despite 2020 having a slow refreeze, it did not lead to a especially low(for modern times) minimum albeit we were briefly at record lows in July if I remember rightly but a very fast refeeze in 2008 for example may of helped to a higher extent in 2009 as the ice had more days under colder temperatures.

One thing for certain, less ice is going to lead to  an even slower formation of the PV and therefore even less refreezing time.

Maybe the arctic is not the place where you lose most energy. If you look at the end of the melt season. The temperature goes down fast. And freezes the water. But if you look at the north atlantic for example. That's a very large area with also a large temperature difference between summer and winter. And that stays open the entire year.

Sublime_Rime

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 211
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 98
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #37 on: September 27, 2023, 10:03:37 PM »
I think this is a good point Alexander. When the air temp is cold enough to freeze the surface, it actually prevents heat loss mixed up from deeper layers, relative to areas of the N. Atlantic where the air is still quite cold, but not cold enough to freeze the surface. Hence the negative feedback with even partial BOE. It seems to me that we have already entered that period where that negative feedback is minimizing the effect of OHC on sea ice decline.
« Last Edit: September 27, 2023, 10:20:20 PM by Sublime_Rime »
Max
Know thyself
Here to learn and connect in these wondrous and quickly changing times.

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2429
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1008
  • Likes Given: 1024
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #38 on: September 28, 2023, 12:13:41 AM »
gfs forecast 12;00 27/09/03 is the most incredible and destructive for ice I've seen in a long time . By run's end on the 13th , 2/3 of the basin is above -4'C and Kara positively balmy . The entire 16 day forecast is epic .. AI in action ?
Conflict is the root of all evil , for being blind it does not see whom it attacks . Yet it always attacks the Son Of God , and the Son of God is you .

nadir

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2083
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 248
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #39 on: September 28, 2023, 02:30:06 AM »
I thought the longer it is ice free, the more radiative heat loss in the ocean. Like boiling water to ice phase change.

Seems like we should welcome open area now, and hope for a big kick late...

It’s a knife with two edges. It may explain rebound years in part.
A blue Arctic would lead to the greatest ocean heat losses during Winter. So one might speculate that a blue Arctic would not be followed by another blue Arctic. Year-to-year periodic, quasi-periodic or chaotic behavior?

It's always an interesting debate whether it's better to have a fast refeeze or a slower one after a low minimum but I think it's inconclusive. Despite 2020 having a slow refreeze, it did not lead to a especially low(for modern times) minimum albeit we were briefly at record lows in July if I remember rightly but a very fast refeeze in 2008 for example may of helped to a higher extent in 2009 as the ice had more days under colder temperatures.

One thing for certain, less ice is going to lead to  an even slower formation of the PV and therefore even less refreezing time.

Maybe the arctic is not the place where you lose most energy. If you look at the end of the melt season. The temperature goes down fast. And freezes the water. But if you look at the north atlantic for example. That's a very large area with also a large temperature difference between summer and winter. And that stays open the entire year.

Well that’s two different oceans. Also the stratification of the Arctic is quite unique.

I was referring to the basic fact that for most of the Arctic Ocean you have ~6 months of obscurity and in practical terms ~8-9 months of negative radiative imbalance. Versus whatever you have at the latitudes you are referring to.

In reality an Arctic Winter might not be as emissive as I was implying if you have plenty of humidity but then you may end up with extra snowing over the Arctic and over the adjacent landmasses which might delay next spring.

So I settle with the fact that it is a very complicated system, which even when reaching blue ocean conditions in summer for the first time it will not be straightforward to predict what will happen in the following season.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2023, 02:35:36 AM by nadir »

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3403
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 644
  • Likes Given: 240
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #40 on: September 28, 2023, 07:28:30 AM »
Thanks Renerpho for restoring and updating the chart.

I wonder will I ever see 15 million km2+  again in my lifetime ?

<edit: I see we did surpass 15 million in 2020, barely. (15.05 max, ) . My original thought was that 2013 was the last.occasion>

2020 possibly was to 15 million km²+ what 1998 was to 16 million.

Meanwhile, this is what I'm fearful of...
Quote
Average remaining Area gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2024 of 12.35 million km2, 0.28 million km2 below the March 2016 record low maximum of 12.63 million km2, and 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record.
This space for Rent.

interstitial

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2816
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 556
  • Likes Given: 95
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #41 on: September 28, 2023, 08:19:15 AM »

Meanwhile, this is what I'm fearful of...
Quote
Average remaining Area gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2024 of 12.35 million km2, 0.28 million km2 below the March 2016 record low maximum of 12.63 million km2, and 1st lowest in the 44 year satellite record.


We have discussed this many times in various threads and the Arctic area or extent does not exhibit seasonal memory but it does show annual memory. By that I mean over the years there is certainly less ice as time goes on but a low this season does not correlate to lower area next season. The impact of weather is much stronger than the season signal. In other words the season signal is hidden by the noise of weather. Someone ran the statistics to show there is no correlation between this seasons low and lower ice next season. This was a surprising result to me and given the discussion generated runs counter to most peoples intuition on the matter but it is proven by the math.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2174
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 865
  • Likes Given: 235
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #42 on: September 28, 2023, 09:50:46 AM »
We have discussed this many times in various threads and the Arctic area or extent does not exhibit seasonal memory but it does show annual memory.

I think a better way to put it is that the arctic has practically no annual memory (what happens one year has apparently almost no impact on the next year), but an obvious decadal memory.

Seasonal memory is very weak - the freezing season is surprisingly bad at prediction the melting season, and vice versa. This seems counterintuitive, but nobody has been able to predict maximum on the basis of the preceding melting season. And nobody has been able to predict minimum based on the freezing season just passed.

The only short-term predictions that seem to work don't start until in May/June, particuarly measuring the meltponding and ice surface wetness. Stephen did predict back in June that this year would hit 5th place, and that was very near the mark.

So intraseasonal memory (at least for melting season) and multiannual or decadal memory are what we seem to have, but blanks inbetween. Very short term, or very long term. A bit like 50 First Dates, or Groundhog Day even.
« Last Edit: September 28, 2023, 10:48:25 AM by binntho »
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

NeilT

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6226
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 384
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #43 on: September 28, 2023, 07:03:16 PM »
I think a better way to put it is that the arctic has practically no annual memory (what happens one year has apparently almost no impact on the next year), but an obvious decadal memory.

I would put that slightly differently.  I would say that the signal found in the annual impact of each melting season is too small to be directly measured.  However the "cumulative" effect of those annual variations are visible on a decadal view and can be clearly measured.

Yes I also believe there are cycles.  5, 10 and 15 years.  Can I prove it?  No, but it doesn't stop me from speculating.

It is why I mentioned the Scientific view.  30 to 50 years.  Because the annual and even decadal variations are influenced too much by extreme weather events and other events for us to really see what the impact is.

On the 50 year view it is absolutely and starkly clear.  BOE is coming and nothing other than mass extraction of CO2 from the atmosphere and heat from the oceans will stop it.  It may be two years from now, depending on weather, or 50 years from now.  But the trend is clear and undeniable.  The Arctic ice is toast in summer.

But the stratification of the board also doesn't help when trying to debate or understand this.  Go back and look at 1991/2

CO2 https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html
Impacts on Volume http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png
Global temperatures https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_temperature_record#/media/File:20200324_Global_average_temperature_-_NASA-GISS_HadCrut_NOAA_Japan_BerkeleyE.svg

What happened in 91/2? Mt Pinatubo. It left a 2-4 year signature in all the models we use to measure what is happening with the climate.

Mt Pinatubo was a VEI6 volcano.  There was another VEI6 volcano.  It happened in December 2021.  Less than 2 years ago.  It was also a VEI6 volcano although incorrectly reported as a VEI5 at the time of eruption.  More so it has a different signature, one of water into the Mesosphere.  Something predicted to hit the Arctic directly in 2024.

So when we're trying to look into each melting season, year by year, we need to factor in all of the greater environmental impacts which might, very slightly, or even moderately, change the outcome of every melting and freezing season. Another of those is the 11 year solar cycle. The current smoothed trend is significantly higher than the prior cycle, 24.  Yes it is a small variation.  But it is a very large planet on which all that power falls and it has a cumulative impact.

Hence going back to a 30 or 50 year signal to see where we are headed overall.

Of course that doesn't mean that watching each melting season and freezing season obsessively is not fun.  I've been doing it for 30 years.  It just means any predictions we make are unlikely to be too accurate.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Renerpho

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 536
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 231
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #44 on: September 28, 2023, 09:36:54 PM »
Of course that doesn't mean that watching each melting season and freezing season obsessively is not fun.  I've been doing it for 30 years.  It just means any predictions we make are unlikely to be too accurate.

I hope that's something that the younger of us (myself included) will keep in mind.

I don't know if I agree with your alleged 5/10/15 year cycles. I think there's just a lot of random variation on those time scales, as you said, which makes it look as if there are spikes in the periodogram, when in fact there's just noise. Of course the only way to tell is to wait for a few decades, which is precisely what you were arguing for...

Yuha has just posted an article in the Temperature records thread, which includes some nice information about the effects of the Hunga-Tonga eruption, the solar cycle, etc. It's worth a read:

https://berkeleyearth.org/august-2023-temperature-update/
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

morganism

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 208
  • Likes Given: 110
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #45 on: September 28, 2023, 11:53:44 PM »
The Ridiculously Resilent Ridge has dissapated quite a bit, and the Greenland high too.

I think that lets the Polar Jet thru much easier on the Alaska side. Am expecting big ESAS and Barents freeze early and a very cold NE NaM, lots of snow on Greenland. Should help build some multiyear ice in the the top of the CAA too....

First snows of the year expected in the west US mountains thru the next weekend on...
cold water off SoCal is also getting displaced, so maybe some moisture gets thru to SW US too.

https://nitter.poast.org/Met_khinz/status/1706634809429168320#m

Renerpho

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 536
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 231
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #46 on: September 29, 2023, 01:25:40 AM »
Should help build some multiyear ice in the the top of the CAA too

How do you build multiyear ice?
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2174
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 865
  • Likes Given: 235
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #47 on: September 29, 2023, 08:07:23 AM »
I think a better way to put it is that the arctic has practically no annual memory (what happens one year has apparently almost no impact on the next year), but an obvious decadal memory.

I would put that slightly differently.  I would say that the signal found in the annual impact of each melting season is too small to be directly measured.  However the "cumulative" effect of those annual variations are visible on a decadal view and can be clearly measured.
...

Personally I don't think there is any signal to measure from one year to another, but certainly some small signal from one season to another. I think that every season starts from fresh within certain parameters, for melting season, the ice at minimum is governed by:

1) The amount of ice at the maximum,
2) The amount of energy that goes into melting.

The latter is by far the bigger factor, mostly governed by weather. As for the freezing season, ice at maximum is governed by:

1) The amount of ice at minimum
2) The amount of energy lost from the ocean itself

Point 2 may be bigger in melting than in freezing season, but is still very dominant.

All of the above give random fluctuations around a trend that is heading generally downward, and this trend expresses the long-term memory. It is governed by a steady annual global increase in energy (heat) that influences point 2 in both melting and freezing season. Which means that the multi-annual trend is an outside influence and doesn't really have a representation within the ice system itself.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

P-maker

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 389
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 72
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #48 on: September 29, 2023, 09:50:32 AM »
Binntho,

Believe your expression: "trend expresses the longterm memory" is not exactly accurate at this point in time. What we actually see is a constant "forcing", which is currently driving us over the edge.

A memory is some kind of reflection about past experiences. A forcing is a deliberate act of some folks wishing to grow their egos and/or profits  to cash in on the end of global civilization.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2174
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 865
  • Likes Given: 235
Re: The 2023/2024 freezing season
« Reply #49 on: September 29, 2023, 10:06:47 AM »
It's all about how you understand the word "memory" - and in this context, what it really means is whether the state of the system at one point helps us to predict the state of the system at another point.

The long term trend definitely does that - it helps us predict that the next decade will almost certainly have less ice than the previous decade.

Humanity is certainly the culprit when it comes to rising temperatures. This has most likely been going on for the last 6000 years or so, with severe largescale deforestation/reforestation events caused by human activity showing up in the temperature trends.

So I wouldn't blame anybody but us - all of us. We are all equally guilty, through our parents and grandparents all the way back to the first farmers, and much more so than them because we really would not have preferred to grow up in a premodern world, rather than the modern world that is created by fossil fuels.

And the end of global civilization? Not really. Nowhere near. Hopefully (!)
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6