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Author Topic: Negative feedbacks on the Arctic sea ice melt  (Read 641 times)

Juan C. García

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Negative feedbacks on the Arctic sea ice melt
« on: October 20, 2023, 07:19:38 AM »
Quote from: Juan C. García on October 20, 2023, 07:03:56 AM
I made a similar poll on July 2013. The poll answers say it all. What surprise me is not that we haven't had an ice free Arctic. It surprise me that in 11 years, the 2012 record has not being broken.

I think it is time to discuss about posible negative feedbaks:
- Does the melt of Greenland ice slows the ASI melt?
- What about the Polar Vortex?
- Other negative feedbacks on the ASI melting?

My bet (now on this poll) is 2040-2050.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,414.0.html

93.5% of the 2013 poll votes were wrong... And counting!!!
« Last Edit: October 20, 2023, 07:30:45 AM by Juan C. García »
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Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

binntho

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Re: Negative feedbacks on the Arctic sea ice melt
« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2023, 09:46:42 AM »
We should perhaps separate negative feedbacks on extent from negative feedbacks on ice melt. Extent is very much dependent on dispersion, which has been increasing as far as I can see.

So a negative feedback on extent is the increasing dispersion of ice during summer. But dispersion may well be worse for the ice as measured in volume or area.

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because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

The Walrus

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Re: Negative feedbacks on the Arctic sea ice melt
« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2023, 03:11:03 PM »
Quote from: binntho on October 20, 2023, 09:46:42 AM
We should perhaps separate negative feedbacks on extent from negative feedbacks on ice melt. Extent is very much dependent on dispersion, which has been increasing as far as I can see.

So a negative feedback on extent is the increasing dispersion of ice during summer. But dispersion may well be worse for the ice as measured in volume or area.

Increased dispersion may be worse for those measurements during the summer, but may well lead to faster refreeze during the winter months.  Water between ice floes will be more prone to freezing than ice distant from a larger ice field.
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