Hurricanes & Cyclones 2024

[Jim Hunt]

Hurricane Kirk on the mid Atlantic forecast chart for next Monday.

I noticed that too Niall, and the associated surf forecast for soggy SW England:

https://West-Devon.info/2024/10/october-sewage-pollution-in-south-west-england-2/

[Richard Rathbone]

There are some pretty powerful storms in the ensembles for ex Kirk, anywhere from butting through the Channel to Cape Wrath, though the south of Ireland seems to be where most of them are aiming. Leslie's following in Kirk's wake too. Kirk is another of this season's rapid intensifiers, increasing by 65 mph in 24 hours. NHC forecast is for it to top out at 140 mph.

On the brighter side the potential for a follow on from Helene forming in the Gulf seems to be fading. Down to 0/30 in the NHC forecast.

[zenith]

View from space shows path of power outages from Hurricane Helene
https://www.axios.com/local/charlotte/2024/10/02/space-image-power-outages-hurricane-helene

it's a good thing the united states has sent so much electrical grid equipment to continuously rebuild the grid in ukraine for the sake of the imperial war and global domination. the people in the mid-atlantic states can wait, this stuff doesn't grow on trees you know.

Your post is rather inappropriate on multiple levels. Standing up to neo-Imperial Russian aggression and military domination of their neighbors is an honorable thing to do. Apologizing for Russia's conduct is very revealing. Especially in a forum devoted to science and knowledge.

you could always visit the politics section/war and clutch your pearls elsewhere. the american citizens are cheering on their own demise for the sake of their imperial aggression which they don't recognize. all the ignorance and arrogance is really just shooting yourselves in the feet.

America Last: After Spending $640 Million On Migrants And Billions Abroad, FEMA Suddenly 'Broke'
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/america-last-after-spending-640-million-migrants-and-billions-abroad-fema-suddenly-broke

"The Biden-Harris administration's 'America Last' policies have left the country vulnerable. Between draining the strategic petroleum reserve, sending hundreds of billions in cash and equipment to Ukraine (such as electrical transformers that are now needed for Hurricane Helene), and FEMA spending $640 million to help migrants, the agency tasked with emergency preparedness is now 'broke,' and doesn't have enough money to get through hurricane season which typically lasts through November.

According to AP,

The agency is being stretched as it works with states to assess damage from Hurricane Helene and delivers meals, water, generators and other critical supplies. The storm struck Florida last week, then plowed through several states in the Southeast, flooding towns and killing more than 160 people.

Mayorkas was not specific about how much additional money the agency may need, but his remarks on Air Force One underscored concerns voiced by President Joe Biden and some lawmakers earlier this week that Congress may need to pass a supplemental spending bill this fall to help states with recovery efforts.

"We are meeting the immediate needs with the money that we have. We are expecting another hurricane hitting," said Mayorkas, adding "FEMA does not have the funds to make it through the season."

And while the administration sends billions more to Ukraine, VP Kamala Harris has offered a laughable $750 in FEMA relief for hurricane victims." etc., etc., etc.

this is how empires end.

[Freegrass]

Hurricane Kirk on the mid Atlantic forecast chart for next Monday.

This will become another disaster. Curious if it will ride up the channel.

https://classic.nullschool.net/#2024/10/09/0600Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-13.40,49.87,1746

[gerontocrat]

Hurricane Helene death toll rises inexorably - now 215.

meanwhile a wellknown oddball from the lunatic fringe says......

Marjorie Taylor Greene says 'they' control weather as Helene death toll reaches 215
Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, a hard-right congresswoman of Georgia, is once again facing criticism for peddling a baseless – and just plan bizarre – claim about the weather.

“Yes they can control the weather,” Greene said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. “It’s ridiculous for anyone to lie and say it can’t be done.”

The eyebrow-raising comment came as the death toll from Hurricane Helene rose to 215, after the storm tore through Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee last week. Greene had previously shared a map of the hurricane’s devastation overlaid with an electoral map to seemingly draw a (very questionable) connection between the two.


Greene did not specify who “they” were in her tweet, but she has a controversial history when it comes to weather claims. In 2018, Greene suggested California wildfires were caused by a laser beam from space that was connected to the Rothschild family, which has frequently been the target of antisemitic conspiracy theories.

[Richard Rathbone]

This will become another disaster. Curious if it will ride up the channel.

Ciaran from a couple of years ago is what its competing with

Storm Ciarán, known in Germany as Storm Emir[7] was a European windstorm that severely affected parts of Europe from late October to early November 2023. Part of the 2023–24 European windstorm season, Ciarán impacted northwestern Europe and killed 21 people, eleven of whom were in Italy and four in France. It also caused mass disruption to transport. Widespread damage from 100 miles per hour (160 km/h) winds were reported in the Channel Islands, while 1.2 million French households were left without electricity.[8][9]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Ciar%C3%A1n

I've seen ensemble members pumped up in Biscay similar to Ciaran, but bombogenesis is not nailed on by any means yet. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Explosive_cyclogenesis

NHC track is pointed at Finisterre, but the current cone goes from Ireland almost to Spain at day 5. Current GFS (06Z) is a little north of that, pointed at Land's End and scraping the south coast of England, with ensemble members spread from Biarritz to Kintyre.

[The Walrus]

Hurricane Helene death toll rises inexorably - now 215.

meanwhile a wellknown oddball from the lunatic fringe says......

Marjorie Taylor Greene says 'they' control weather as Helene death toll reaches 215
Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, a hard-right congresswoman of Georgia, is once again facing criticism for peddling a baseless – and just plan bizarre – claim about the weather.

“Yes they can control the weather,” Greene said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. “It’s ridiculous for anyone to lie and say it can’t be done.”

The eyebrow-raising comment came as the death toll from Hurricane Helene rose to 215, after the storm tore through Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee last week. Greene had previously shared a map of the hurricane’s devastation overlaid with an electoral map to seemingly draw a (very questionable) connection between the two.


Greene did not specify who “they” were in her tweet, but she has a controversial history when it comes to weather claims. In 2018, Greene suggested California wildfires were caused by a laser beam from space that was connected to the Rothschild family, which has frequently been the target of antisemitic conspiracy theories.

Any relation to Freegrass?

[Bruce Steele]

https://x.com/MattWallace888/status/1840675609531359507

Here is the map that Marjorie Greene referenced. Amazing how those Dems can steer a hurricane between major metropolitan areas , now let’s see them reroute tornados , or steer atmospheric rivers into important democratic strongholds that might need a little extra rain.
Damn nice to be a Dem in the modern world of endless hubris, power to the people.

[Freegrass]

This will become another disaster. Curious if it will ride up the channel.

Ciaran from a couple of years ago is what its competing with

Did Ciaran hit Normandy?
This looks so bad at 850hPa 5 days from now.

https://classic.nullschool.net/#2024/10/09/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-3.47,48.88,3000

[vox_mundi]

1. Gulf of Mexico: (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical or subtropical depression or storm is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves eastward or northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico.  Interests in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system.   Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur over portions of Mexico during the next day or two, and over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours ...low...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days ...high...90 percent.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2024100500&fh=6

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024100500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_18.png

[etienne]

Just a joke

I think they are going after one of us because he told us that they can control storms.

If landfall isn't in Belgium, we'll know they can't manage it very well yet.

If landfall is in Saint Petersburg, than it's the Ukrainian, and they are very competent.

[vox_mundi]

North Carolina Is Distributing Benadryl and EpiPens as Yellow Jackets Swarm from Helene Flooding
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-10-north-carolina-benadryl-epipens-yellow.html

Deadly flooding from Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina has also disrupted the underground nests of yellow jackets, bees and other insects, causing them to swarm and sting people struggling to recover from the storm.



"With every disaster, we get requests for EpiPens but this one is definitely an outlier," said Alycia Clark, Direct Relief's chief pharmacy officer. Many of the people coming in with stings are electricians working to restore powerlines and other outdoor workers, Clark said.

[Richard Rathbone]

Just a joke

I think they are going after one of us because he told us that they can control storms.

If landfall isn't in Belgium, we'll know they can't manage it very well yet.

If landfall is in Saint Petersburg, than it's the Ukrainian, and they are very competent.

The intensity models have a major hitting St Petersburg in some runs...

(Milton, currently the red X off Mexico, hitting the one in Florida, probably powered by immigrants rather than Ukrainians)

[zenith]

Just a joke

I think they are going after one of us because he told us that they can control storms.

If landfall isn't in Belgium, we'll know they can't manage it very well yet.

If landfall is in Saint Petersburg, than it's the Ukrainian, and they are very competent.

The intensity models have a major hitting St Petersburg in some runs...

(Milton, currently the red X off Mexico, hitting the one in Florida, probably powered by immigrants rather than Ukrainians)

you guys find it funny that fema is running out of money and hurricane victims receive a pittance? that the united states is running short of equipment to repair the electrical grid is amusing to you?

interesting.

[The Walrus]

Did I miss something?  Who made those comments?

[vox_mundi]

https://www.trackthetropics.com/INVEST92/

[Bruce Steele]

Entire Gulf of Mexico at 30-31C.  I thought a hurricane cooled surface waters but it doesn’t look like Helene did.
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/gom/sst_map.php

[vox_mundi]

And the heat is 200-300 feet deep

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/ohc/

------------------------------------------

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/051459.shtml?

... The official forecast shows the system nearing major hurricane strength (Cat 3) over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.  This forecast is near the intensity consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies a little below the regional hurricane models. Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 22.1N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 22.5N  94.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 22.9N  94.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 22.8N  93.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 22.9N  91.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 23.4N  89.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 24.3N  87.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 27.0N  83.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 29.9N  78.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

[Jim Hunt]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM MILTON...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/051725.shtml?

FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NEXT WEEK...

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Milton.  The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

[zenith]

fema... doing the same great job since hurricane katrina.

Residents Screaming! Government Not Helping Hurricane-Devastated Areas!

[Richard Rathbone]

Entire Gulf of Mexico at 30-31C.  I thought a hurricane cooled surface waters but it doesn’t look like Helene did.
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/regsatprod/gom/sst_map.php

Depends how fast it moves and how shallow the hot water is. A stalled hurricane on a shallow layer of hot water will exhaust that heat in a day or so. Fast moving over deep heat and it may be barely noticeable. Helene was moving at  a decent clip over some over the deepest heat available. There's plenty left for Milton, which is going to be moving close to perpendicular to Helene's track rather than directly along it too. Laura has been following Kirk almost exactly along the same track and still made it to hurricane strength, though not the monster that Kirk is. (yet, ex-Laura could still end up worse for wherever it impacts in Europe than ex-Kirk if it gets a bigger boost from non-tropical effects)

[Richard Rathbone]

video and blog on Milton from the usual suspects

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/
Video for explanation of the atmospheric setup and what is and isn't uncertain in the forecast

Its going to be a hurricane, its going to hit Florida, it  might be Tuesday or Thursday, it might be only just hurricane strength, it might be a major, it might hit S or N or Tampa/St Pete. Surge could be worse than Helene, and if it does take the NHC forecast path, the surge records broken around Tampa could be broken again.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/10/major-landfalling-hurricane-threat-setting-up-for-floridas-west-coast/
Text for rather more historical perspective and rather less mechanistic insight into the hurricane forecast

If TD 14 follows the current NHC forecast and hits a heavily populated portion of Florida as a high-end Cat 2, storm surge damage will be in the billions, and could exceed $10 billion. TD 14 is predicted to be an average-sized hurricane near the time of landfall, with tropical storm-force winds that extend out up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. But since the storm will be pushing its storm surge over the large area of shallow waters off the west coast of Florida, a large and destructive storm surge can be expected. Assuming that TD 14 hits at high tide and is at category 2 strength, water levels in excess of 6 feet (1.8 m) above normally dry ground are likely for about a 100-mile swath of the coast near and to the right of where the center makes landfall. A storm surge in excess of 9 feet (2.7 m) would likely occur along a 20-mile stretch of coast where the right-front eyewall traverses. NHC’s storm surge risk map for a category 2 hurricane (Fig. 3) shows the areas at highest risk.

It shouldn't be as deadly as Helene overall, because it will zip across Florida and out to sea, rather than having mountains to dump huge floods into, but Milton does have the potential to be as bad or worse for Florida than Helene was. Helene has reached 237 fatalities in the wiki tally, (25 in Fl) and by no means all of the bodies will have been found yet. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Helene#Florida_2

[Freegrass]

I'm really curious where Milton is going to make landfall. You know what I think, so I'm not gonna say it. But I'll be watching.

[gerontocrat]

I'm really curious where Milton is going to make landfall. You know what I think, so I'm not gonna say it. But I'll be watching.

Attaxhed shows where GFS reckons it wll land

[Freegrass]

I'm really curious where Milton is going to make landfall. You know what I think, so I'm not gonna say it. But I'll be watching.

Attaxhed shows where GFS reckons it wll land

Yes, I know. And it will do a lot of damage there. So if they really can steer hurricanes, I recon they will try to make it hit the same place again more to the north, where it will cause less damage. It would be horrible of course for the people that live there to get hit twice in a year, but the material cost will be significantly less, since it's already been destroyed there. We'll see. It's a good test for my theory.

[gerontocrat]

my theory.

"my theory"? Tut tut.
There is speculation, then hypothesis, then theory, and the first of which is speculation.

My speculation is that this succesion of gulf hurricanes is somehow a reflection of the extreme sea temperatures that have turned the Gulf of Mexico into a cauldron and may unfortunately be an indication of the shape of things to come.

[be cause]

but . knowing the power of the human mind , it may well be that freegrass's thoughts are having more impact than 'They' could ever have ...

[Bruce Steele]

This weatherman is trying to debunk the Florida steering hurricane nonsense .
One model is forecasting a 899mb low

[vox_mundi]

Milton intensifying more rapidly ...

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 22.4N  94.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 22.2N  93.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 22.2N  92.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 22.5N  90.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 23.5N  88.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 24.7N  86.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 26.5N  84.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 29.0N  79.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

Mandatory evacuations begin in Tampa Bay Area

[Richard Rathbone]

Milton now a hurricane as well as Kirk and Leslie. I think this is first time on record for 3 Atlantic hurricanes simultaneously in October.

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
INTO A HURRICANE...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/061748.shtml

[vox_mundi]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/062053.shtml

... The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid
intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within light shear and over very deep warm waters. Intensity guidance is about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two.  The NHC forecast is raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus model and still could be too low.  Later on, vertical wind shear is forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and some weakening is anticipated.  However, the regional hurricane models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 22.4N  93.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 22.2N  92.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  07/1800Z 22.2N  90.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 22.6N  89.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 23.6N  86.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 25.2N  85.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 27.0N  83.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 29.8N  77.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  11/1800Z 31.4N  68.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

----------------------------------------------------------------

Full List of Republicans Who Voted Against FEMA Funding Before Helene Hit
https://www.newsweek.com/republicans-voted-against-fema-funding-1963980

[vox_mundi]

 Helene ravaged the NC plant that makes 60% of the country’s IV fluid supply
https://arstechnica.com/health/2024/10/helene-ravaged-the-nc-plant-that-makes-60-of-the-countrys-iv-fluid-supply/

Hospitals nationwide are bracing for a possible shortage of essential intravenous fluids after the cataclysmic storm inundated a vital manufacturing plant in North Carolina.

The plant is Baxter International's North Cove manufacturing facility in Marion, which is about 35 miles northeast of Asheville.

The North Cove plant produces 60 percent of the country's supply of IV solutions, typically producing 1.5 million bags per day, according to the American Hospital Association. The dozens of sterile solutions Baxter makes at the facility are used for everything from intravenous rehydration and drug delivery to peritoneal dialysis used to treat kidney failure.

There is currently no timeline for when the plant will be able to reopen.

[kiwichick16]

@  vox    .... 1   where is the other 40 % made
...................2     can they increase production
....................3  can they import IV  product

[vox_mundi]

The article at the link answers some of your questions. Import will probably be the short term answer but transporting millions of liters of fluid every day is going to be a headache. And the ports are still backlogged from the strike.

[vox_mundi]

[Gray-Wolf]

I think we also need be mindful of the massive amounts of unsecured debris, from Helene, littering some of the areas predicted to be hit?

I cannot think of another 'Cane that had such 'debris' to throw around from the get go?

It's normally after the eyewall that things, under opposite stresses from the approaching storm, let go?

[SteveMDFP]

The article at the link answers some of your questions. Import will probably be the short term answer but transporting millions of liters of fluid every day is going to be a headache. And the ports are still backlogged from the strike.

Shipping by air for IV fluids is certainly doable.  Two parts of the article and its comments are notable:

"Baxter ... is also working with the Food and Drug Administration to explore importing products from its global manufacturing network." 

I'm confident that Baxter and others have enough global supply options to fill in for this supply gap.  Some extra plant and warehouse shifts here and there, expedited air shipping.  In a pinch, even military cargo.  The real obstacle here may be bureaucratic inertia on approving the importation.  None of this importation is legal without the OK of the FDA.

A friend in Oz reported to me just last week that a shortage of IV fluids in Australia has been in a crisis in recent weeks, wholly unrelated to Helene.  Thus stuff is not patented, is fairly cheap, and used globally, so the Oz shortage may have been from just such bureaucratic inertia.

This isn't to blame government here (necessarily).  Production for the whole nation should never have been concentrated in one plant.  Not too long ago, similar over-concentration caused a crisis in infant formula.  Of course, economies of scale available to a capitalist system promote such over-concentration of production.  In a global society that is increasingly subject to chaos (climate, political, social, more) society can't afford a lack of redundancy and fail-safe options.

[oren]

Tampa Bay is a bad location for peak storm surge of such magnitude.

[vox_mundi]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/071149.shtml

700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen.  The Air Force aircraft very recently reported a peak flight-level wind of 120 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to around 945 mb, which is down about 9 mb from a previous dropsonde report from the NOAA aircraft about an hour ago. This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to 110 kt, and to increase the short term intensity forecast that now shows a peak wind speed of 135 kt in 24 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1200Z 21.8N  92.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
12H  07/1800Z 21.6N  91.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 21.8N  89.3W  135 KT 155 MPH - CAT 5
 36H  08/1800Z 22.9N  87.5W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 24.7N  85.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  09/1800Z 26.4N  83.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 28.1N  81.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 96H  11/0600Z 30.0N  75.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/0600Z 31.5N  68.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATRO

-------------------------------------------------------

Update: 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing. ... The Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier reported a peak flight-level wind of 146 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to around 933 mb, which is down about 22 mb in 4 hours.  The initial wind speed is set to 135 kt, which is an 80-kt increase in 24 hours (only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix 2007 in our records).

Milton is likely to become a category 5 hurricane later today with light shear and very warm waters in its path. By tomorrow, its intensity should be dictated by any eyewall replacement
cycles, which will likely cause the system to gradually weaken but grow larger.

INIT  07/1500Z 21.7N  91.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 21.5N  90.4W  145 KT 165 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 22.2N  88.3W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 23.6N  86.4W  135 KT 155 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 25.5N  84.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 27.7N  82.8W  110 KT 125 MPH

-------------------------------------------------------

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT4+shtml/071558.shtml

1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane.  The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts.  Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches).

Milton rapidly intensified, exploding from a 60-mph tropical storm Sunday morning to a potent 160-mph Category 5 hurricane − an increase of 100 mph in little more than 24 hours.

[Bruce Steele]

I have a good friend in Bonito Springs that rode out Ian and Helene . I sent him a message to pack his truck and get the hell out. His wife will stay with him . She said he wants to stay. They have a nice sailboat somewhere that broke loose in Ian and ended up on dry ground afterward, not too damaged. Storm surge from Ian got to their doorstep but not into the house. I think this is gonna be way worse. Hurricane tracker planes already saw 162mph and because forward progression has slowed it will head further South and closer to Myers’s Beach. 12ft storm surge for Ian and Milton looks worse to me.

[Richard Rathbone]

I have a good friend in Bonito Springs that rode out Ian and Helene . I sent him a message to pack his truck and get the hell out. His wife will stay with him . She said he wants to stay. They have a nice sailboat somewhere that broke loose in Ian and ended up on dry ground afterward, not too damaged. Storm surge from Ian got to their doorstep but not into the house. I think this is gonna be way worse. Hurricane tracker planes already saw 162mph and because forward progression has slowed it will head further South and closer to Myers’s Beach. 12ft storm surge for Ian and Milton looks worse to me.

NHC forecast for peak surge is 5-10ft there and they are pretty close to the northern edge of the 4-7ft band.
So far slower and more southerly has meant a higher peak in the forecast, but a sharper swing north and gives shear more time to erode Milton down from its peak before landfall. As a result the landfall forecast has been fairly steady at borderline major near Tampa. Current NHC forecast is to drop 40 mph from peak strength, while Ian was a lot closer to peak at a landfall that was a lot closer to them than Milton's forecast (Ian's landfall was south of Milton's current cone). If they were near Tampa and saying Ian and Helene didn't quite flood them so they'll be fine, that would be a much riskier call. NHC peak surge forecast is 8-12ft compared to records of around 8ft for that area.

NHC has archives of past storms if you want to review the forecasts for Ian and compare against Milton.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN.shtml?

So far everything that Milton has done was within the forecast uncertainty range and worse than Ian in Bonito Springs is outside that range.

[Niall Dollard]

I imagine the remote Isla Pérez off Yucutan will take some battering today.

[morganism]

(think the other IV fluid supplier is on Puerto Rico, cuz corp tax breaks)

I saw peak speed estimates can top 190mph due to heat availability (SHIP). I am wondering if Helene is going to due a loop de do, right before it does landfall.

[Sigmetnow]

“We are preparing ... for the largest evacuation that we have seen, most likely since 2017, Hurricane Irma,” Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said Sunday.
 
Hurricane Milton strengthens into a Category 4 as Florida prepares for evacuations and storm surge

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) — Milton rapidly strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane Monday on a path toward Florida population centers including Tampa and Orlando, threatening a dangerous storm surge in Tampa Bay and setting the stage for potential mass evacuations less than two weeks after a catastrophic Hurricane Helene swamped the coastline.
 
Milton had maximum sustained winds of 150 mph (240 kph) over the southern Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said. The storm could make landfall Wednesday in the Tampa Bay area and remain a hurricane as it moves across central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean.
 
That path would largely spare other southeastern states ravaged by Helene, which caused catastrophic damage from northern Florida to the Appalachian Mountains and killed at least 230 people.
   —-
Milton is a bit atypical since it formed so far west and is expected to cross the entire southern Gulf, according to Daniel Brown, a hurricane specialist at the center.
“It’s not uncommon to get a hurricane threat in October along the west coast of Florida, but forming all the way in the southwest Gulf and then striking Florida is a little bit more unusual,” Brown said. Most storms that form in October and hit Florida come from the Caribbean, not the southwestern Gulf, he said.

Forecasters warned of a possible 8- to 12-foot storm surge (2.4 to 3.6 meters) in Tampa Bay and said flash and river flooding could result from 5 to 10 inches (13 to 25 centimeters) of rain in mainland Florida and the Keys, with as much as 15 inches (38 centimeters) in places.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Sunday that while it remains to be seen where Milton will strike, it’s clear the state is going to be hit hard.
“You have time to prepare — all day today, all day Monday, probably all day Tuesday to be sure your hurricane preparedness plan is in place,” DeSantis said. “If you’re on that west coast of Florida, barrier islands, just assume you’ll be asked to leave.”

About 7 million people were urged to evacuate Florida in 2017 as Hurricane Irma bore down. The exodus jammed freeways, led to long lines at gas stations and left evacuees in some cases vowing never to evacuate again.
 
Building on lessons learned during Irma and other previous storms, Florida is staging emergency fuel for gas vehicles and charging stations for electric vehicles along evacuation routes, Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said Sunday.
“We are preparing ... for the largest evacuation that we have seen, most likely since 2017, Hurricane Irma,” Guthrie said.
 
The Tampa Bay area is still cleaning up extensive damage from Helene and its powerful surge. Twelve people perished as Helene swamped the coast, with the worst damage along the narrow, 20-mile (32-kilometer) string of barrier islands that stretch from St. Petersburg to Clearwater.

DeSantis expanded his state of emergency declaration Sunday to 51 counties and said Floridians should prepare for more power outages and disruption, making sure they have a week’s worth of food and water and are ready to hit the road.
People who live in homes built after Florida strengthened codes in 2004, who don’t depend on constant electricity and who aren’t in evacuation zones should probably avoid the roads, Guthrie said.
All classes and school activities in Pinellas County, home to St. Petersburg, closed preemptively Monday through Wednesday. Officials in Tampa freed all city garages to residents hoping to protect their cars from flooding, including electric vehicles. The vehicles must be left on the third floor or higher in each garage.
 
As many as 4,000 National Guard troops are helping state crews to remove debris, DeSantis said, and he directed Florida crews dispatched to North Carolina in Helene’s aftermath to return in preparation for Milton.
 
When Milton achieved hurricane status, it marked the first time there have been three hurricanes swirling simultaneously in the Atlantic, said Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach. Hurricanes Leslie and Kirk were far out at sea and not immediately threatening land.

https://apnews.com/article/hurricane-milton-helene-florida-557c5c512135e0a8661b298e45e17c92

——
Eric Berger
Hurricane Milton is setting records for rapid intensification as it bears down on the most-populated area of western Florida. This is bad, bad, and very bad.
10/7/24, 1:40 PM https://x.com/sciguyspace/status/1843345700475781597
 
Hurricane Milton becomes second-fastest storm to reach Category 5 status
Eric Berger Oct 7, 2024 1:28 PM

In less than a day, Hurricane Milton has rapidly intensified over the southern Gulf of Mexico, exploding from a small Category 1 hurricane into a Category 5 storm. Unfortunately, the hurricane is likely to strengthen further as it tracks eastward toward Florida.
 
The National Hurricane Center reported that Milton had reached sustained winds of 160 mph as of 11:44 pm ET on Monday, with a central pressure of 925 millibars. The storm is moving steadily eastward and is likely to reach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday evening as a major hurricane.
 
Based upon Atlantic basin records, Milton has tied Hurricane Maria (2017) for the second-fastest intensification from a Category 1 to Category 5 hurricane, taking just 18 hours. Only Hurricane Wilma (2005) did so more rapidly, in just 12 hours.
 
Wilma holds another record for intensification, with the lowest central pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. That storm reached a central pressure of just 882 millibars. ….

https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/10/hurricane-milton-becomes-second-fastest-storm-to-reach-category-5-status/

[Richard Rathbone]

I imagine the remote Isla Pérez off Yucutan will take some battering today.

Milton probably goes south of it, but the lighthouse is the only thing that might be the only thing left in that photo if the eyewall ran over it. Thats a place for storm chasers with a death wish, I'd be out of there already, even if the lighthouse was rated for cat 5.

Video on Milton at the point it become cat 5. Scorpion Reef gets a mention and that island is part of it.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/

Possible sting jet at Milton's landfall gets a mention. Thats something which I've seen more often in non-tropical storms, sting jets are often responsible for the worst winds in UK winter storms.

[Richard Rathbone]

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/10/category-5-milton-poses-an-exceptionally-serious-threat-to-floridas-west-coast/

Eye on the Storm on cat 5 Milton.

Hurricane Milton is a potentially deadly threat. If you receive evacuation orders from local authorities, follow them.
The likely track will bring Milton into Florida’s west coast sometime on Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning, most likely near or just south of the Tampa Bay area.

AHurricane Watch and a Storm Surge Watch are up for much of the west coast of Florida, as Hurricane Milton has gone from tropical-storm to Category-5 strength in less than 24 hours – a spectacular and ominous feat of rapid intensification over the record-warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Milton is the Earth’s third Cat 5 of 2024, along with Hurricane Beryl in the Atlantic and Super Typhoon Yagi in the Western Pacific. As of 2 p.m. EDT, Milton’s top sustained winds were an astonishing 175 mph (282 km/h), and its central pressure was 911 millibars.

Between 2 p.m. EDT Sunday and 2 p.m. EDT Monday, Milton’s official top sustained winds increased from 80 to 175 mph, an increase of 95 mph (153 km/h) in 24 hours – not far from Hurricane Wilma’s Atlantic-record 24-hour intensification rate of 110 mph in 2005. Milton intensified from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in just under 25 hours, just shy of Wilma’s record 24-hour rate. In the 51 hours from 11 a.m. Saturday to 2 p.m. Monday, Milton’s top sustained winds went from 35 to 175 mph – topping Hurricane Felix’s Atlantic-record 54-hour rate of 140 mph (225 km/h) in 2007 by accomplishing the same amount of intensification in an even shorter time frame.

While Milton may intensify a bit more beyond the astounding strength observed on Monday afternoon, there is a limit to how strong a hurricane can become given its environment – what’s called its maximum potential intensity. For Milton at its current location, that figure is computed to be about 200 mph (320 km/h), with a central pressure around 890 mb.

Conditions are expected to get less favorable for Milton Tuesday evening until landfall Wednesday or early Thursday, as Milton moves from the central to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Strong upper-level winds out of the southwest are predicted to bring a high 25-35 knots of wind shear on Wednesday, and with some very dry air wrapping into the storm from the west, it is expected that the core of the hurricane will get breached, causing significant weakening. Ocean temperatures along Milton’s track will still be very warm, though, and the hurricane will be passing over a region with warm water that extends to great depth — the Loop Current. (Milton will be passing over the same stretch of ocean that Hurricane Helene traversed at the end of September, but Helene’s passage did not cool the waters of the eastern Gulf very much, since it was moving at a high forward speed.)

On Tuesday and Wednesday, Milton will gradually loop leftward and accelerate toward the east-northeast and northeast as the hurricane falls under the influence of an upper trough extending through the eastern U.S. from southeast Canada. The major global-scale models are in close agreement on this overall track, which will bring Milton into Florida’s west coast sometime on Wednesday afternoon or evening, most likely near or just south of the Tampa Bay area. Among the most reliable track models, only the UKMET (the green line in Fig. 1 below) has been an outlier, significantly further to the south than the rest, but the 12Z Monday run of the UKMET (not shown in the graphic below) was much closer to the Tampa Bay area than earlier runs. The European model (not shown), which was the best-performing track model in 2023 for lead times up to 72 hours, has been consistent with a landfall in the Tampa Bay area, which is near the center of the National Hurricane Center cone issued at 11 a.m. EDT Monday.

Milton’s expected track from the western Gulf to the west coast of Florida is unprecedented in living memory. In data going back to 1851, only three hurricanes – all of them prior to 1900 – moved from the western Gulf to make landfall in western Florida. Unlike the more common approach from the south-southwest, Milton’s approach from the west-southwest is giving Milton much more time than usual to evolve over the Gulf before landfall. It also means that winds and storm surge will be aimed more directly at Florida’s west coast, and it raises the odds of strong winds pushing further inland into the peninsula. Wind damage will also be a major concern from Milton, and may extend considerably far inland, since the system is expected to be moving at a brisk forward speed of about 15 mph (24 km/h). A narrow corridor of hurricane-force sustained winds along and just south of Milton’s track could extend as far inland as Orlando.

Our five top hurricane-specific forecast models – the HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, and COAMPS-TC – have been painting some extremely ugly possible futures for Tampa Bay from Hurricane Milton. Many of the runs have shown a landfall just north of Tampa Bay, which would maximize the surge in the bay. The most devastating scenario for Tampa Bay painted by any of the model runs from 12Z (8 a.m. EDT) Monday was from the HWRF model, which showed Milton hitting as a borderline Cat 3/Cat 4 with 130 mph (210 km/h) winds, hitting just north of Tampa Bay (Fig. 2). Such a storm would likely generate a storm surge in the bay in excess of 10 feet, causing over $10 billion in damage. The 12Z Monday runs of the HMON, HAFS-A, and HAFS-B models were not as strong, showing a landfall at Cat 2 strength near or just north of Tampa Bay.

[vox_mundi]

The Surge intensified for Tampa



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/072058.shtml

400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

... On the last fix before the plane departed a few hours ago, the Air Force Hurricane Hunter crew
reported that the pressure had fallen to 911 mb, which is 77 mb lower than yesterday at the same time, with other data to support 150 kt.  Since the satellite imagery continues to show
intensification, the initial wind speed is set to 155 kt, and a pair of Hurricane Hunters should be in the area this evening for more information.

Milton could strengthen even more tonight with light shear and very warm waters providing a conducive environment.  However, radar data indicate that Milton could be at the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle, with some signs of a moat and a partial outer eyewall.  The evolution will likely cause the system to gradually weaken on Tuesday but grow larger.

INIT  07/2100Z 21.8N  90.8W  155 KT 180 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 21.9N  89.4W  160 KT 185 MPH (~ 300 km/h)
 24H  08/1800Z 22.7N  87.4W  150 KT 175 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 24.2N  85.6W  140 KT 160 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 26.1N  84.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 27.9N  82.6W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND

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I have a good friend in Bonito Springs that rode out Ian and Helene . I sent him a message to pack his truck and get the hell out. ...

My cousin is in Estero about 5 miles North

[Bruce Steele]

Read the comment section on this weather caster from Houston. Bots and AI if you are watching, this is how you teach people.


My buddy has mandatory evacuation orders to leave by 3pm tomorrow , I heard somewhere the authorities were going to try to enforce the evacuation more rigidly.  Everyone knows how dangerous this is by now, right ?

[morganism]

(is not just Florida. The area the cane #john that hit Mexico is getting hit by trop storm again today. Havnt seen any news on it yet. Isn't going to come ashore, but rain on mud is never good.

E. Pacific Invest #99E Track Forecasts (Mon 07 Oct 2024 0000 UTC): web.uwm.edu/hurricane-models…

https://nitter.poast.org/HurricaneModels/status/1843109531053679067#m

PS: Flocks of birds in the eye of Milton !!!

[Freegrass]

Read the comment section on this weather caster from Houston. Bots and AI if you are watching, this is how you teach people.

That is an excellent forecast indeed. Learned a lot. But can you indulge me for a moment? Don't get angry please! I'm really curious about this. I want to know.

If they would fly through that low above the Jetstream, and bombed it with lots of silver iodide, so it would rain out, that low would weaken, right? And if it weakens, the Jetstream would move north, no? Or what would happen?