ENSO 2024

[gerontocrat]

September update from CPC below. (post 1 of 2)

Renerpho is not impressed with the CPC forecasts......

The 50 crazy forecasts I mentioned previously were just that -- crazy. July comes in at 0.0... Need I say that their latest forecast for the August average is silly again?

I don't know why their models continue to insist that La Niña conditions are imminent, as they have done for the past six months.

The models give predictions ranging from -0.5 to -1.2, with an average of -0.8.
My own guess for August is -0.1.

I wonder what he makes of this update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
12 September 2024
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch

Synopsis:  La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (71% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.

ENSO-neutral continued during August 2024, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The weekly Niño indices did not change substantially during the month, with the latest weekly index values varying between +0.2°C (Niño-4) and -0.4°C (Niño-1+2; [Fig. 2]). Below-average subsurface temperatures were also similar to those in early August (area-averaged index in [Fig. 3]). Negative temperature anomalies continued to dominate across most of the subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over most of the equatorial Pacific, and upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Convection was slightly enhanced over parts of Indonesia and was near average near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Both the Southern Oscillation index and the equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral.

The IRI plume predicts a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C [Fig. 6]. This month, the team relies more on the latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) guidance, which predicts La Niña to emerge in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The continuation of negative subsurface temperatures and enhanced low-level easterly wind anomalies supports the formation of a weak La Niña. A weaker La Niña implies that it would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (71% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025 [Fig. 7].

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 October 2024.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[gerontocrat]

September update from CPC below. (post 1 of 2)

more graphs

[gerontocrat]

October 2024 ENSO update from the Climate Prediction Center post 1 of 2)

A big difference between the dynamic & statistical models shown in 3rd image attached

click images to enlarge

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
10 October 2024
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch

Synopsis:  La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.

During September 2024, ENSO-neutral continued with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Similar to this time last month, the latest weekly Niño indices ranged from +0.2°C (Niño-4) to -0.4°C (Niño-1+2; [Fig. 2]). Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted [Fig. 3] across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central equatorial Pacific, and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific. Convection was near average over Indonesia and was slightly suppressed over the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral.

The IRI plume predicts a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C [Fig. 6]. The latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts were warmer this month, but still predict a weak La Niña. As a result of the warmer predictions and the recent weakening of equatorial trade winds, the team still favors a weak event, but has lowered the chances of La Niña. A weaker La Niña implies that it would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025 [Fig. 7].

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 November 2024.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[gerontocrat]

October 2024 ENSO update from the Climate Prediction Center post 2 of 2)

More images

click images to enlarge

[Renerpho]

Japan Meteorological Agency with their 11 November 2024 update
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/outlook.html

• ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in October. Overall conditions in the atmosphere and ocean, however, indicate that common features of past La Niña events were becoming clear.
• The characteristics of La Niña conditions will become clearer towards and during winter, but will not last until spring. Thus, it is more likely that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue (60 %) than the definition of a La Niña event will be met (40 %).

At the same time, some like Climate Impact Company are predicting a rising chance for an El Niño to develop during the second half of 2025.
https://climateimpactcompany.com/november-2024-enso-outlook-la-nina-could-fail-el-nino-on-the-table-for-later-next-year-2-2/

[gerontocrat]

The US Clomate Prediction Center produce their monyhly update on Nov 14.

Meanwhile ENSO 3.4 SSTs are firmly stuck at ENSO neutral

[gerontocrat]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The US Climate Prediction Center have issued their latest guidance on the ENSO cycle. Still looking for a winter La Nina, though short and weak. Post 1 of 2

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
14 November 2024
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch

 
Synopsis:  La Niña is most likely to emerge in October-December 2024 (57% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025.

Over the past month, ENSO-neutral continued, as evidenced by overall near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Similar to last month, the latest weekly Niño indices ranged from +0.2°C (Niño-4) to -0.3°C (Niño-3.4; [Fig. 2]). Below-average subsurface temperatures persisted [Fig. 3] across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the monthly average, low-level wind anomalies were easterly over a small region of the east-central equatorial Pacific, and upper-level wind anomalies were near average. Convection was suppressed over the Date Line and was weakly enhanced over eastern Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral.

The IRI plume predicts a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C [Fig. 6]. The latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts are cooler than the IRI plume and predict a weak La Niña. Due to this guidance and La Niña-like atmospheric circulation anomalies over the tropics, the team still favors onset of La Niña, but it is likely to remain weak and have shorter duration than other historical episodes. A weak La Niña would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Niña is most likely to emerge in October-December 2024 (57% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025 [Fig. 7].

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 December 2024.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[gerontocrat]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

The US Climate Prediction Center have issued their latest guidance on the ENSO cycle. Still looking for a winter La Nina, though short and weak. Post 2 of 2

More images....

[HapHazard]

Thank you, gero.

[gerontocrat]

ENSO Region 3.4 SSTs move up to above longterm averages.

[gerontocrat]

Tomorrow the US Climate Prediction Center willissue their latest update on ENSO.

In the last few days SSTs in ENSO 3.4 Region have fallen sharply. The drop in SSTs happened too late to be picked up by the update?

[Renerpho]

The drop in SSTs happened too late to be picked up by the update?

I think their updates use data from up to a week before publication.

[Renerpho]

Gero may be busy these days, so here's the US Climate Prediction Center's on ENSO, published 12 December 2024. (Part 1 of 2)

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch

Synopsis:  La Niña conditions are most likely to emerge in November 2024 - January 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely by March-May 2025 (61% chance).

ENSO-neutral continued in November, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Similar to the last couple of months, the latest weekly Niño indices ranged from +0.1°C (Niño-1+2) to -0.4°C (Niño-3; [Fig. 2]). Below-average subsurface ocean temperatures persisted [Fig. 3] across the east-central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Over the western and central equatorial Pacific, low-level wind anomalies were easterly and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly. Convection was suppressed over the Date Line and was enhanced over western Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral.

The dynamical models in the IRI plume continue to predict a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C [Fig. 6]. This prediction is also reflected in the latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), which continues to predict slightly cooler SSTs and weak La Nina conditions. The forecast team leaned toward predicting an eventual onset of weak and short-lived La Nina conditions, based on the model guidance and current atmospheric anomalies. Weak La Niña conditions would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Niña conditions are most likely to emerge in November 2024 - January 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely by March-May 2025 (61% chance; [Fig. 7]).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 January 2025.

[Renerpho]

12 December 2024 ENSO update (part 2 of 2, with more images)

Next update will come on 9 January 2025, probably in a new "ENSO 2025" thread.

In the last few days SSTs in ENSO 3.4 Region have fallen sharply.

What effect this drop will have on it, we will see.

[Renerpho]

USCPC's ENSO probabilities

It's interesting to see how the forecast changed throughout the year. The over-arching theme of ENSO 2024 was the continuously delayed onset of La Niña conditions:

January: El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance)

February: a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance)

March: a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance)

April: a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance)

May:La Niña may develop in June-August (49% chance) or July-September (69% chance)

June: La Niña is favored to develop during July-September (65% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (85% chance during November-January)

July: La Niña favored to emerge during August-October (70% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (79% chance during November-January)

August: La Niña favored to emerge during September-November (66% chance) and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (74% chance during November-January)

September: La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (71% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025

October: La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025

November: La Niña is most likely to emerge in October-December 2024 (57% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025

December: La Niña conditions are most likely to emerge in November 2024 - January 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely by March-May 2025 (61% chance)

And no, this is no surprise...

It's hard to establish La Niña conditions if the Eastern Pacific is warming rapidly.

All these models are slowly coming to grips with the fact that July's average will be close to 0 in that chart, maybe slightly positive (something that honestly wasn't hard to guess weeks ago).

I don't know why their models continue to insist that La Niña conditions are imminent, as they have done for the past six months.

[Carbon for the Carbon God]

It's interesting to see how the forecast changed throughout the year. The over-arching theme of ENSO 2024 was the continuously delayed onset of La Niña conditions:

Excellent summary/post and it's something I've noticed myself as an amateur observing these same forecasts.

We shall see where the months ahead take us, but it's looking increasingly likely that these models will have to do some soul-searching.

[Renerpho]

We shall see where the months ahead take us, but it's looking increasingly likely that these models will have to do some soul-searching.

I agree, and I'm sure someone will be looking at those models and try to find out what's wrong with them.

Right now the models might be right, in the sense that the formation of a La Niña in the coming months may be a genuine coin-toss. I think they're less obviously wrong now than they were a couple of months ago. But maybe that's because they're now saying that anything could happen, and that can't be far from the truth...

[Rodius]

We shall see where the months ahead take us, but it's looking increasingly likely that these models will have to do some soul-searching.

I agree, and I'm sure someone will be looking at those models and try to find out what's wrong with them.

Right now the models might be right, in the sense that the formation of a La Niña in the coming months may be a genuine coin-toss. I think they're less obviously wrong now than they were a couple of months ago. But maybe that's because they're now saying that anything could happen, and that can't be far from the truth...

We need to acknowledge two things before criticisms are thrown about.

1 - predictions are very tough in a chaotic system where we dont know enough to be highly accurate.

2 - it becomes double difficult when the previous information and research was in a different climate system.

The longer climate change continues, the less predictable these things will become until everything settles... and that isnt happening for a very long time. We had a lovely consistent climate and we have done well, now we are heading back toward a more changeable climate system which is more the norm anyway.

[Renerpho]

We need to acknowledge two things before criticisms are thrown about.

1 - predictions are very tough in a chaotic system where we dont know enough to be highly accurate.

2 - it becomes double difficult when the previous information and research was in a different climate system.

The longer climate change continues, the less predictable these things will become until everything settles... and that isnt happening for a very long time. We had a lovely consistent climate and we have done well, now we are heading back toward a more changeable climate system which is more the norm anyway.

And your similar comment in the "Heatwaves" thread:

The more the climate changes, the more difficult predictions will become.

All the research and findings on the climate were done in a different climate system that was stable.

Maybe the models are becoming outdated. One more reason to reassess them.

I think it's important to distinguish between a system that becomes more chaotic, and one where the underlying parameters are shifting. A more chaotic system doesn't make predictions more difficult per se; it should just reduce the confidence and the time horizon up to which they can be made. We're seeing neither of those. When you make a 9-month forecast that is consistently wrong about the state after 1 month, that's a sign you're not dealing with too much chaos, but with a fundamentally broken model. More chaos doesn't ever lead to more consistency.

Considering that the model seems to have worked well for a long time, the problem may be they're missing the underlying changes...

[Rodius]

We need to acknowledge two things before criticisms are thrown about.

1 - predictions are very tough in a chaotic system where we dont know enough to be highly accurate.

2 - it becomes double difficult when the previous information and research was in a different climate system.

The longer climate change continues, the less predictable these things will become until everything settles... and that isnt happening for a very long time. We had a lovely consistent climate and we have done well, now we are heading back toward a more changeable climate system which is more the norm anyway.

And your similar comment in the "Heatwaves" thread:

The more the climate changes, the more difficult predictions will become.

All the research and findings on the climate were done in a different climate system that was stable.

Maybe the models are becoming outdated. One more reason to reassess them.

I think it's important to distinguish between a system that becomes more chaotic, and one where the underlying parameters are shifting. A more chaotic system doesn't make predictions more difficult per se; it should just reduce the confidence and the time horizon up to which they can be made. We're seeing neither of those. When you make a 9-month forecast that is consistently wrong about the state after 1 month, that's a sign you're not dealing with too much chaos, but with a fundamentally broken model. More chaos doesn't ever lead to more consistency.

Considering that the model seems to have worked well for a long time, the problem may be they're missing the underlying changes...

Reassessment requires research.
The research can only be done in the current climate system, which is changing.
This makes the models less reliable regardless of the reassessment.

It is still worth doing, but the accuracy is reduced.

The issue isnt the models, so expecting high accuracy is not something to expect or to be critical about.

[gerontocrat]

SSTs in the ENSO 3.4 Region continue to fall very quickly.

Random chance says the CPC ENSO forecast has to be right some of the time.

What is the emoji for inappropriate sarcasm?

[Renerpho]

SSTs in the ENSO 3.4 Region continue to fall very quickly.

Random chance says the CPC ENSO forecast has to be right some of the time.

What is the emoji for inappropriate sarcasm?

How about a combo like 🙃👌💯  ?

The anomaly has surpassed 1°C below the 1981-2010 average (shift that about 0.2°C upwards, to 0.8°C, to convert to the current climate baseline). This is about as low as it has been since the end of the last La Niña.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

[gerontocrat]

SSTs in the ENSO 3.4 Region still continue to fall very quickly. (data as at 22nd Dec)

Somewhat of a contrast with World SSTs

[trm1958]

Let me ask something about El Niño. Is it measured from a fixed baseline, or from the recent average? If the first, global warming would give us a permanent El Niño, if the later we could still get La Nina’s.

[anthropocene]

Let me ask something about El Niño. Is it measured from a fixed baseline, or from the recent average? If the first, global warming would give us a permanent El Niño, if the later we could still get La Nina’s.

ENSO index is measured against the 30 year climate average of tropical SST. This of course could have issues in a warming world and especially if the warming is accelerating. There are moves to use a "relative index" which captures the additional heat/cooling (i.e. the strength of the cycle) more accurately. See:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/376233894_A_Relative_Sea_Surface_Temperature_Index_for_Classifying_ENSO_Events_in_a_Changing_Climate


 

[hst_319]

A pretty interesting note on the state of the ENSO forecast in Financial times. https://www.ft.com/content/4c5da16b-e85e-4828-8f07-873c229aaa3c Sorry about the potential paywall.

NOAA seems to believe the higher than average ocean temps are wrecking the model.
Not quoting since i'm a bit scared of FTs copyright enforcing.

[kassy]

Then paraphrase please. How are the higher temperatures messing with the model?

[HapHazard]

https://removepaywalls.com/https://www.ft.com/content/4c5da16b-e85e-4828-8f07-873c229aaa3c

[Renerpho]

archive.is doesn't care about that paywall.

Scrambled weather cycle prompts meteorologists to rethink models
Top forecasting agencies in discussions after ‘uh-oh’ moment on key readings of Pacific Ocean temperatures
Kenza Bryan in London and Eva Xiao in New York, 20 December 2024

The top US climate agency is rethinking its modelling of the critical Pacific Ocean cycles that feed into the world’s atmospheric shifts, as record hot sea temperatures globally scramble weather patterns.

Scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) told the Financial Times they were holding discussions internally and consulting other national agencies about how to make forecasts more accurate.

“It’s certainly an indication that global warming is messing with the traditional ways we monitor events,” said Nathaniel Johnson, a scientist on a team that develops the US models. “We should consider . . . whether our traditional metrics will still work as well given how much our oceans are warming.”

This follows a recent move by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology to stop publishing a key short-term forecast after a backlash from farmers earlier this year, when predicted dry conditions turned into flooding.

Changes to the temperature of one area of the tropical Pacific Ocean have until now underpinned observations of the naturally-occurring so-called El Niño warming effect or La Niña cooling effect by major weather and climate agencies.

Swings in the temperature of this defined zone shape extreme weather events and temperatures over a years-long cycle, with effects felt right across the globe, bringing heavy rain to some regions and parching others as a consequence.

These pendulum swings from hot to cool take place every few years, and farmers, commodity traders and disaster agencies rely on the phenomenon being accurately modelled to prepare for the impact.

But some scientists say that, as climate change may be interfering with the way the cycles are measured and the effects they create, the warming of tropical oceans around the world may need to start being factored in. “It is being discussed,” said Michelle L’Heureux, who leads the team that develops the Noaa modelling of the El Niño and La Niña effects.

The phenomenon has until now been monitored using a technique broadly unchanged since the 1990s. British climatologist Gilbert Walker was one of the first to notice in the 1920s that a “see-saw” in atmospheric pressure in the Pacific seemed to predict global weather patterns with some certainty.

Last year, El Niño helped drive global temperatures to a new record, accentuating the warming effects from rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. It also triggered a drought in Central America, which caused historic low water levels in the Panama Canal and immobilised shipping.

This year, scientists anticipate weather patterns could be out of sync with the anticipated La Niña phenomenon that would be expected to bring the usual effects, such as drier weather over the southern US, either later or less intensely.

“It’s concerning when this region we’ve studied and written all these papers on is not related to all the impacts you’d see with [La Niña],” L’Heureux said. “That’s when you start going ‘uh-oh’ there may be an issue here we need to resolve.”

Forecasters have been unnerved by the erratic timing. In June, the US agency said with 85 per cent certainty that La Niña would be declared between November and January 2025. The cooling effect could have acted as a temporary brake on the rate of global temperature rise.

However, its latest forecast concluded that the cooling was now most likely between March and May, and that it would be “weak and shortlived”.

The EU earth observation agency Copernicus also said that more sophisticated prediction tools for the variety of influences over rain and temperature globally meant that “inferences” based on historical trends such as the Pacific phenomenon had less value than in the past.

A rare so-called “triple” La Niña event was experienced from 2020 to 2023, before the more short-lived El Niño. Beleaguered Australian farmers complained this year about sustaining losses after selling their livestock when the national weather bureau declared an onoing El Niño event in September 2023, forecasting its effects would last the southern summer into early 2024. This would have typically increased the chances of drought but instead there were torrential rains in some areas.

The Australian bureau hosted an online discussion about the difficulties of modelling El Niño in an era of global warming, with participating scientists from New Zealand, South Korea, Japan, New Caledonia, Singapore and the US. It is advanced in adopting a new “relative” index that takes global tropical ocean temperatures into account, according to a meeting summary.

“As our climate continues to change, our historical experience is less aligned to the present and future climate,” the agency told the FT in a statement.

This goes along the lines of what I posted before, as in

[...] Maybe the models are becoming outdated. One more reason to reassess them. [...]

[kiwichick16]

latest ENSO summary from BOM

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/?ninoIndex=nino3.4&index=nino34&period=weekly