Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2024 melting season  (Read 68656 times)

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2462
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1022
  • Likes Given: 1063
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #250 on: May 12, 2024, 11:07:07 PM »
me thinks Polar python has the answer(s) ..

     https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home?authuser=0
There is no death , the Son of God is We .

Paul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 142
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #251 on: May 13, 2024, 06:16:13 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

A massive LPS is going to launch the melting season in earnest next week. These lows have a tendency to shift, so let's wait and see what's actually going to happen. Just a minor shift south can keep it behind the mountains of Alaska. But it's been on the charts for a while now, without much change. So it looks like we're in for a mighty start of the melting season, with lots of wind and heat blowing over the ice.

The Siberian coastline is getting "restored" by favorable wind and freezing temperatures.

Not quite seeing it being as dramatic as your post suggests. There is a low that is going to come in from the Bering sea and cross over the basin but it's not too strong and won't have much impact over the ice.

Also temperatures will rise but it's not a significant heat blast from what I can see. E.g it's not what we saw in 2011 for example but either way I do think the Beaufort will be the area to watch this year.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 251
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #252 on: May 13, 2024, 08:24:45 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
<snip>
The Siberian coastline is getting "restored" by favorable wind and freezing temperatures.
<snip>

Also temperatures will rise but it's not a significant heat blast from what I can see. E.g it's not what we saw in 2011 for example but either way I do think the Beaufort will be the area to watch this year.
Concur with Paul.  While the Beaufort will no doubt start serious melt soon, I’m more focused on what’s happening in the Barents/Kara/Laptev, where the ice significantly thinner than typical historically, and us going to be more directly under the influence of increasing SSTs and heat inflows from the Atlantic.

Significant melt ponding and early melt out there would have knock-on effects on both the NE CAB and western ESS.
This space for Rent.

Paul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 142
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #253 on: May 13, 2024, 11:53:33 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
<snip>
The Siberian coastline is getting "restored" by favorable wind and freezing temperatures.
<snip>

Also temperatures will rise but it's not a significant heat blast from what I can see. E.g it's not what we saw in 2011 for example but either way I do think the Beaufort will be the area to watch this year.
Concur with Paul.  While the Beaufort will no doubt start serious melt soon, I’m more focused on what’s happening in the Barents/Kara/Laptev, where the ice significantly thinner than typical historically, and us going to be more directly under the influence of increasing SSTs and heat inflows from the Atlantic.

Significant melt ponding and early melt out there would have knock-on effects on both the NE CAB and western ESS.

Interesting you say that because the volume models suggest those areas are thicker than the average of the past 10 years and worldview at the moment suggests the ice looking resilient compared to some years in the past 10 years especially in the Laptev. The Beaufort and and especially   north of the CAA the volume models are suggesting the ice is thinner than average and who knows we may see something unprecedented in that area come September.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 21062
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5322
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #254 on: May 14, 2024, 12:23:08 AM »
The data for the Kara indicates very high volume and thickness and high sea ice area.

Data from PIOMAS & NSIDC (5 day trailing average) sea ice area.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Paul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 142
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #255 on: May 14, 2024, 04:20:37 PM »
I suspect alot of the volume in the Kara sea is from the ice compacted against Novaya Zemlya which means the ice is likely to be quite stubborn here for the early part of the melt season but what tends to happen is the ice further along develops holes and we can see that on the worldview. To have a chance of keeping the northern route closed for the summer, I rather if the thickest/most compact of the ice was against the Russian islands instead and keep the thinner ice near Novaya Zemlya.

uniquorn

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5197
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2214
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #256 on: May 14, 2024, 10:06:02 PM »
The new buoys in the Lincoln Sea are part of this project

https://www-air.larc.nasa.gov/missions/arcsix/index.html
ARCSIX – Arctic Radiation-Cloud-Aerosol-Surface Interaction EXperiment

Quote
The overarching goal of ARCSIX is to quantify the contributions of surface properties, clouds, aerosol particles, and precipitation to the Arctic summer surface radiation budget and sea ice melt during the early melt season (May through mid-July). It encompasses three main science questions and one objective:

    Science Question 1 (Radiation): What is the impact of the predominant summer Arctic cloud types on the radiative surface energy budget?
    Science Question 2 (Cloud Life Cycle): What processes control the evolution and maintenance of the predominant cloud regimes in the summertime Arctic?
    Science Question 3 (Sea Ice): How do the two-way interactions between surface properties and atmospheric forcings affect the sea ice evolution?
    Remote Sensing and Modeling Objective: Enhance our long-term space-based monitoring and predictive capabilities of Arctic sea ice, cloud and aerosols by validating and improving remote sensing algorithms and model parameterizations in the Arctic.

https://espo.nasa.gov/ARCSIX/
Quote
To accomplish ARCSIX science and objectives, two aircraft will fly in coordination. One will acquire in-situ aerosol particle, cloud, atmospheric, and surface properties along with radiation below, above, and inside a cloud layer, while the other will serve as a bridge to satellite observations by surveying with heritage and novel remote sensing instruments from above. This will provide the required near-simultaneous characterization of radiative fluxes, surface, and cloud properties to address Science Questions 1 and 3. Statistical sampling of cloud vertical structure, temperature, and humidity profiles complemented by simultaneous remote sensing will address Science Question 2 and the Remote Sensing and Modeling Objective. To extrapolate the spatially and temporally limited field observations beyond ARCSIX itself, the ARCSIX airborne data will be integrated with satellite remote sensing observations and model simulations. Targeted sampling of distinct regimes defined by cloud type and the associated prevailing surface and meteorological conditions will enable more useful combinations of airborne and satellite remote sensing observations along with model simulations. This combination of observations and model simulations will push the performance of remote sensing algorithms towards more realism for a variety of conditions and culminate in a more realistic depiction of radiative processes, cloud life cycles, sea ice evolution in climate, regional forecast, and process models.

https://airbornescience.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/documents/ARCSIX_wp_20201030.pdf
extract: surface radiation budget (SRB)
Quote
Low-level liquid-containing clouds (hereafter referred to as low clouds) are ubiquitous across the Arctic (Cesana et al. 2012; Mioche and Jourdan 2018) and span a large range of optical thickness. They have a strong influence on the Arctic SRB (Shupe and Intrieri 2004; Kay and L’Ecuyer 2013; Boeke and Taylor 2016). In particular, optically-thin low liquid clouds with small liquid water path (LWP)values (Fig. 2) – played a key role in the wide-spread surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet in July 2012 (Bennartz et al. 2013).
Clouds have an infrared (IR) warming effect for any LWP value, but also a “hot spot” in a limited LWP range (in the case of the Greenland melt event, around 30 g m-2, Fig. 2). The maximum net warming effect at this value arises because the IR cloud emissivity increases quickly with LWP, warming the surface, whereas the shortwave cloud reflectance increases more slowly. The ratio between shortwave cooling and longwave warming and its dependence on LWP depends on the surface reflectance and solar zenith angle (Sedlar et al., 2011; Shupe and Intrieri 2004).
 This feature of low LWP clouds also operates over the Arctic sea ice, with an unknown effect on the surface radiative budget as these optically-thin low liquid clouds are frequently missed by passive remote sensing (Wendisch et al., 2019; Chen et al. 2020). Moreover, passive sensors cannot capture multi-layer clouds, which occur frequently over the Arctic but remain poorly documented (Matus and L’Ecuyer, 2017). While active sensors have provided valuable new insights on Arctic low clouds, they have “blind spots” inherent to the technique or due to orbital sampling. For example, CloudSat radar ground clutter prevents cloud detection below 1 km, while the CALIPSO lidar signal attenuates near an optical depth of three.

Wondering what this device is..
« Last Edit: May 14, 2024, 10:49:30 PM by uniquorn »

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4053
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #257 on: May 15, 2024, 02:13:03 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

I'm really curious what the ice will look like by the end of this week. We're having a perfect storm, with lots of hot air coming in, followed by a HPS, aka sunshine.

A massive LPS will come in after that according to the longer term forecast, but we'll see about that when it comes.
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

El Cid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2544
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 935
  • Likes Given: 227
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #258 on: May 15, 2024, 03:08:39 PM »
I don't see much hot air arriving, and the HP will last 3-4 days only. Not much to write home about IMO

nadir

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2322
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 251
  • Likes Given: 37
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #259 on: May 15, 2024, 03:26:26 PM »
The parttern may not affect the ice that much but it consolidates anomalous high temperatures for Northern Canada. Also, another warm spot appears over Russia near Kara-Laptev coasts. Snow anomaly in this area is positive at the time, this may change starting this week.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2024, 03:33:53 PM by nadir »

Paul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 142
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #260 on: May 15, 2024, 03:35:55 PM »
I don't see much hot air arriving, and the HP will last 3-4 days only. Not much to write home about IMO

I agree, we may see some affects locally on the ice e.g the Beaufort may see ice moving away from the coastline as the low heads into the basin but there is definately no hot air forecast.

The high pressure system looks like a weak ridge from the Canadian Arctic, given the time of year and with snowcover on the ground, again it keeps a lid on things compared if the same set up occurs in July for example.

Nadir mentions about the possibility of a warm blast through the Kara and into the Laptev, there is certainly hints this could happen and with cold air and warm air not too far apart then rapid cyclogenesis could well occur which would make things interesting for the ice in the Kara/Barants sea.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4053
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #261 on: May 16, 2024, 01:28:20 AM »
It looks like HYCOM is slowly coming back to live. There's a big gap in the data though in this GIF.
I'll do a comparison with previous years later.
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6330
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 906
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #262 on: May 16, 2024, 10:08:28 AM »
The first signs of surface melt are now apparent in the Coronation Gulf:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2024/05/facts-about-the-arctic-in-may-2024/#May-16
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

uniquorn

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5197
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2214
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #263 on: May 16, 2024, 02:49:51 PM »
2024F in the Chukchi Sea is the most southerly active SIMB3. Here we look at the buoy temperatures (colourbar on right) between -2C and +3C to highlight possible melt in the snow layer. Sensor height is indicated on the left. The snow layer is 25% opacity white.
Dashed yellow line is air temperature linked to the right axis, dotted white is temperature roughly 4cm below the snow surface. Note that they crossed over today as air temperatures rose. Top of the buoy is warmer than air temperature due to insolation.
edit: Quite often a melt pond will form around the buoy but 2024F looks like it was deployed a little higher than its surroundings so maybe meltwater will run off. It could just be the photo perspective though. Looks windswept.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2024, 04:50:11 PM by uniquorn »

psymmo7

  • New ice
  • Posts: 82
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #264 on: May 16, 2024, 06:30:59 PM »
 Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #262 on: Today at 10:08:28 AM »

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4053
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #265 on: May 17, 2024, 01:52:19 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

Blistering start of the season.  ???

The ice on the pacific side is already weak. So this early roast ain't good.

Early next week, it could be the Laptev Sea that gets hit. It all depends on what that low is going to do. But the long term forecast doesn't look good.
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

uniquorn

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5197
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2214
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #266 on: May 17, 2024, 10:47:36 PM »
The most northerly SIMB3 2024C in the Beaufort experienced a few hours of above freezing air temperature on may16 though it looks like it was sunnier as top of the buoy temperatures reached 8.25C. Likely that caused some melt close to the buoy, while the surface rangefinder is focused further away. Ice thickness increased by 2cm on may14.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2024, 10:53:35 PM by uniquorn »

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6330
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 906
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #267 on: May 18, 2024, 03:36:34 PM »
"Snow White" and I couldn't take the inability to reply to the incessant stream of (anti)social media BS any longer. Hence:



Any thoughts from the assembled throng, apart from the fact that:

1) I evidently need a new microphone!

2) Mr. Robson's words and deeds seem to gradually get out of sync, but I haven't got time to fix that at the moment.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6330
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 906
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #268 on: May 19, 2024, 02:30:59 AM »
The first signs of surface melt are now apparent in the Coronation Gulf:

A much clearer view of the nascent melt is now available:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2024/05/facts-about-the-arctic-in-may-2024/#May-18

Slightly to west of there, water is starting to appear on the fast ice off the Mackenzie Delta:
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

uniquorn

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5197
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2214
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #269 on: May 19, 2024, 05:41:41 PM »
Bottom melt appears to have started in the western Beaufort Sea at 74.56 N, 155.4 EW!, the location of ice mass balance buoy 651330:




Snap! 2024H has begun bottom melt nearby a year later at 74.51, -157.06
Quote
Ice TypeFYI
FYI with no snow. Appears to be full-winter ice, and is surprisingly thin. Especially with no snow cover.

Snow depth has increased since deployment to ~8cm, air temps peaked at 1.625C turning negative at low sun, buoy temps peaked higher at 8.56C so probably sunny. First image optimised to show recent ice temps at -1C to -5C
Comparison of (mislabelled?) 2021#9 and 2024H mar-may 2023 and 2024
Closer look apr15 to may 2023 and 2024

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4053
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #270 on: May 19, 2024, 08:05:34 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

While the Pacific side is getting an early roast, the Atlantic front is getting ripped apart by strong winds, exporting a lot of ice into the warm Barents Sea.

The Laptev is gonna get it as well!

Now posting my forecasts on Twitter too. They used to not convert well on Twitter, but now the quality is excellent. So follow me there, and share, so I can get this started on Twitter. @FreeGrass69
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

HapHazard

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 841
  • Chillin' on Cold Mountain.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 5333
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #271 on: May 19, 2024, 08:40:45 PM »
Perhaps we should start seeing the beginnings of melt pond formation basin-wide soon.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/?mdl_id=gfs&dm_id=arc-lea&wm_id=t2
If I call you out but go no further, the reason is Brandolini's law.

Paul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 142
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #272 on: May 19, 2024, 10:01:02 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

While the Pacific side is getting an early roast, the Atlantic front is getting ripped apart by strong winds, exporting a lot of ice into the warm Barents Sea.

The Laptev is gonna get it as well!

Now posting my forecasts on Twitter too. They used to not convert well on Twitter, but now the quality is excellent. So follow me there, and share, so I can get this started on Twitter. @FreeGrass69

Barants sea is running at below average apparently but I get where your coming from.

As you said, potential for a fairly deep low in the Kara sea which the models are hinting at strongly but still time for things to adjust. We also got the potential for the first major warm air hitting the Laptev although again just how much warm air will hit and how long it will last for is not quite clear cut but one thing for sure, I got a feeling the ice in the Laptev will look a little different compared to how it does now in 5 to 7 days time.

Either way interesting times in the Laptev/Kara regions coming up.

Also to note how unusual Hudson Bay melting is with severe retreat on the eastern half of the bay thus the western half is still ice covered, usually it's the other way round. Usually I would say compaction could make the ice ice more resilient but it's being compacted via mild winds(rather the other way round like in 2015) therefore potentially we could see a record melt out here just like it was the case last year.

El Cid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2544
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 935
  • Likes Given: 227
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #273 on: May 19, 2024, 10:18:23 PM »

While the Pacific side is getting an early roast, the Atlantic front is getting ripped apart by strong winds, exporting a lot of ice into the warm Barents Sea.

The Laptev is gonna get it as well!

This time I agree. A very deep low in the Kara Sea should speed up the collapse of ice there while the vulnerable Beaufort should get a lot of Sun. Could jumpstart things from two directions...

(but maybe we should wait for Frivolous and his all capital letter posts to get really excited :):):)

kiwichick16

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1039
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 99
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #274 on: May 19, 2024, 10:39:59 PM »
@  haphazard   .....are those abnormally warm temps in central Canada ?

HapHazard

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 841
  • Chillin' on Cold Mountain.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 5333
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #275 on: May 19, 2024, 11:12:33 PM »
I wouldn't say so, kiwi, but perhaps a tad milder than normal. We've got a cool spell here right now, it's really helping with many of the fires. (I'm in the middle of BC, more or less).
If I call you out but go no further, the reason is Brandolini's law.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6330
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 906
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #276 on: May 20, 2024, 10:53:38 AM »
So follow me there, and share, so I can get this started on Twitter.

Now officially X.com:

https://x.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1792100426189361547
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6330
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 906
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #277 on: May 20, 2024, 11:24:22 AM »
Snap! 2024H has begun bottom melt nearby a year later at 74.51, -157.06

Thanks for the heads up. My own version, including the latest data, suggests the call may be slightly premature?
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

uniquorn

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5197
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2214
  • Likes Given: 388
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #278 on: May 20, 2024, 05:52:50 PM »
Snap! 2024H has begun bottom melt nearby a year later at 74.51, -157.06
Thanks for the heads up. My own version, including the latest data, suggests the call may be slightly premature?

Yes, looks a bit premature for 2024H, maybe the ice bottom was disturbed by increased turbulence near the shelf break.

2024I thickness also decreased by 2cm on may17.
https://www.cryosphereinnovation.com/deployment/301434060402500
Quote
Ice TypeMYI
Surprisingly thin MYI. Adjacent FYI is about the same thickness, with less snow.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4053
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #279 on: May 21, 2024, 02:23:55 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GiF!

That low is massive, and will wreak havoc to the ice on the Atlantic side.
Poor Kara...

We'll also get an early opening of the Laptev bite. Curious to see how big it will be by the end of the week.

One month to solstice.
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

Paul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 142
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #280 on: May 21, 2024, 04:30:00 PM »
Yep interesting times for the eastern parts of the Kara sea with the deep low and the Laptev sea with the first taste of warmer air of the season.

It's fortunate the deep low is not further eastwards and hitting the Laptev instead but the low is going to hit an area of ice that has broken up quite significantly so will be interesting how it will look once the low clears away.

Suspect we may see our first noticeable melt ponds of the season over the fast ice in the Laptev and possibly the ESS, snowcover I would imagine will take quite a hit aswell over the Laptev coastline.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4053
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #281 on: May 21, 2024, 11:22:14 PM »
It's fortunate the deep low is not further eastwards and hitting the Laptev instead but the low is going to hit an area of ice that has broken up quite significantly so will be interesting how it will look once the low clears away.
Well... The last run ain't so good. The Laptev will get a lot more wind in the latest forecast.
And it ends up like this.  :o
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

VeliAlbertKallio

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 293
  • Eheu fugaces labuntur anni
    • View Profile
    • Sea Research Society (SRS)
  • Liked: 119
  • Likes Given: 135
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #282 on: May 22, 2024, 04:50:13 AM »
East Siberian Sea to receive record amounts of melt water
https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/1792280401676787906
"Setting off atomic bombs is considered socially pungent as the years are made of fleeting ice that are painted by the piling up of the rays of the sun."

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4053
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #283 on: May 22, 2024, 01:08:40 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 48h
Wind @ Surface
Large GiF!

I had to make one with just the wind today.
The Laptev is getting off easier on this run
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

Paul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 142
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #284 on: May 24, 2024, 01:38:55 PM »
Some impacts from the deep low is making it's pesence now with the ice in the eastern parts of the Kara looking even more broken up and the fast ice in the Laptev area starting to turn a lighter shade of blue so some signs of melt ponds for sure.

Still potential for some more warmth in the Laptev especially to come in the coming days so all eyes on that area at the moment.

On a broader scale, despite the first signs of melt ponds in the Laptev area, the ice does look more white too me compared to some years. Even last year saw some notable melt ponds in the ESS and Chukchi for example. It's still all way too early to say how this year will go apart from again I think a record low is unlikely given just how low it is and what weather and luck occured to achieve that. An extent under 4 million is doable though and last year came close despite an average June(in SMOS beige pixel terms) and for me that would be noteworthy enough

Niall Dollard

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1188
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 472
  • Likes Given: 118
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #285 on: May 24, 2024, 05:51:48 PM »
NSIDC extent map shows the anomalies versus the 1981-2010 median line are mostly in the eastern part of Hudson Bay, along the west Labrador Sea, east Okhotsk and a piece in the NE Barents.

The Canadian Ice Service maps shows how low the Hudson is at this stage. Comparable to 2021, 2010 and 2006.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4053
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #286 on: May 24, 2024, 06:12:37 PM »
You're right Paul. The ice is still in remarkable good shape after all the weather we've gotten on the Pacific side. So much ice still left in the Bering and Chukchi Seas too. There would normally already be a big bite out of the Chukchi sea. Just go through the years with Worldview.

I guess that's another fact confirmed. Sunshine on white snow doesn't do much damage to the ice. We need melt ponds from low pressure systems first before the sun can really do some damage this early in the season.

The Laptev bite is late too, but the ice is thick there, so I don't expect a big bite this year.

We required a good start on the Pacific side for a record, but we didn't get that. Let's see if we get an August storm that smashes everything up.

The Beaufort still looks weak though…
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

morganism

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2031
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 235
  • Likes Given: 143
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #287 on: May 25, 2024, 01:39:23 AM »
I'm expecting the RU icebreakers to really start hitting the ice hard in the Barents/Lap/ESS as soon as they can, they need the oil shipping revenue.

Had a friend stationed in Alaska, he said they knew the fronts were coming in off the ocean when the "ice needles" started freezing out of the clear sky at night. Said he thought it was the nucleation sites that made the diff.

Paul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 142
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #288 on: May 25, 2024, 03:19:04 PM »
I guess that's another fact confirmed. Sunshine on white snow doesn't do much damage to the ice. We need melt ponds from low pressure systems first before the sun can really do some damage this early in the season.

Yep insolation on bright white snow will reflect back into space, to melt the snow to create melt ponds you need WAA from the lower latitudes which we are now seeing in the Laptev and possibly parts of the ESS in the coming days. It's why a high pressure cell over the basin in June is not as bad as one think because whilst the sun shines all day, insolation is not as strong at the highest latitudes.

Of course a ridging high pressure cell which brings alot of warmth from the lower latitudes and over any open water is more bad for the ice because it brings warmth from the landmasses and heat up any open water which of course leads more ice to melt away.

Back to hear and now and as expected that deep low has made it's impact of more open water over the eastern Kara sea and openings occuring over the Laptev. The weather for the Laptev does look largely like remaining on the warm side and I expect more signs of melt ponds appearing on the fast ice over the ESS in the coming days.

The western parts of the Kara looks like remaining cold so the snowpack there should remain largely untroubled and the weather over the Beaufort and especially the Chukchi sea looks uneventful but as Freegrass says the ice does look more vulnerable over the Beaufort.

binntho

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2236
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 239
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #289 on: May 25, 2024, 03:58:48 PM »
So because the ice looks white on a satellite image, we suddenly know all there is to know about what is good or bad for the ice? And can make declarative statements about whether cloudiness is good or bad? And all the poor scientists slavering away trying to understand what is actually going on have of course missed the point.

And how did someone who claims that "insolation is not as strong at the highest latitudes" think that they can get away with talking about "warmth from the landmasses" while those same landmasses are covered in snow?
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Michael Hauber

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1122
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 172
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #290 on: May 25, 2024, 10:55:30 PM »
Mid May is too early for surface melt in Arctic proper.  End of May and first half of June is the critical period during which warm conditions can lead to melt ponding, and cooler conditions tend to result in a frozen surface.  Late June and July surface tends to have melt ponds except in unusually cool conditions, usually only locally and short term (But more dispersed ice means that when the sun shines it find a lot more open water between the floes to be abosrbed by).  Based on the current forecast the coming week will likely see start of significant melt ponding spreading from Russian side.  I expect the development of melt ponding to be on a similar schedule to 2012, and well ahead of nearly all other years.

And even when we do see melt ponding, until about mid July there is very little melting out of actual ice in the main Arctic region.  The key issues are transport (into the Atlantic where the ice does melt out) and surface melt ponding which reduces area but not extent. Last couple weeks has been decent for transport out of Beaufort, hence some open water starting to appear, but mostly slack winds in Laptev, until a couple days ago.  With a fair bit of southerly now hitting Laptev and forecast to continue I'd expect Laptev to be dropping well into the low end of what is typical for this time of year in the next week or so.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Chuck

  • New ice
  • Posts: 21
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #291 on: May 26, 2024, 12:31:56 AM »
Daily High Arctic Albedo-Warming potential anomaly is below that of 2013 a significant change will need to place soon for this year to have any chance of a record.

Paul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 142
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #292 on: May 26, 2024, 01:39:56 AM »
So because the ice looks white on a satellite image, we suddenly know all there is to know about what is good or bad for the ice? And can make declarative statements about whether cloudiness is good or bad? And all the poor scientists slavering away trying to understand what is actually going on have of course missed the point.

And how did someone who claims that "insolation is not as strong at the highest latitudes" think that they can get away with talking about "warmth from the landmasses" while those same landmasses are covered in snow?

I see another condescending post from yourself towards me.

As for your first point, from what we learnt, white ice is better too see than blue ice as the melt ponds are the first signs of ice becoming vulnerable too melt. So the fact I reported on the face of it, there seems to be less signs of melt ponds than in some years so far seems a fair point to make?

As for the cloudiness argument, then there's been discussions before that cloudy weather can trap heat in but reduces insolation. Theres no doubt that cloudy weather via a cold fairly weak trough is the best weather for ice preservation but it's too simplistic that cloudy weather is always good news for the ice.

As for the insolation not the strongest at highest latitudes then Zack Labe's charts when he posts them near the Solstice suggests the suns strength is not as a strong over the pole as it is at lower latitudes in the basin for example and others on here I'm sure said this is due to the longer wavelengths but I might be wrong on that and stand corrected.

As for your last point, I don't know what your on about but snow covered land will obviously surpress temperatures, so the longer the snowcover lasts the better for the ice and it might of been partly that reason why 2017 dodged a bullet. Once the snow eventually goes though then the land heats up and it's why I say heat from high pressure ridges which edge into the basin is bad for the ice whereas a high pressure cell which forms over the basin and does not tap into any heat from the landmasses is not as bad as perhaps it looks.

Either way it's still early days and as last year shown, you can have a slow start and then a warm July comes and you still end up with a fairly low extent.

HapHazard

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 841
  • Chillin' on Cold Mountain.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 290
  • Likes Given: 5333
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #293 on: May 26, 2024, 10:20:44 PM »
Melt ponding well under way in the Buor-Khaya Gulf, it appears. Snow retreating along the Russian coast quite quickly, as well.
If I call you out but go no further, the reason is Brandolini's law.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3423
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 251
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #294 on: May 27, 2024, 08:58:11 AM »
All right everyone, let’s take a deep breath shall we all?

We are only *just* *now* entering into the core of the melt season.

I will remind everyone harkening back to events almost a decade or more ago, that the fundamental conditions in the region are vastly different now.  We have lost volume.  Total system enthalpy is much, much higher.  Atmospheric circulation is far more chaotic.  Near-shore conditions are far less predictable.  I can go on.

I’ll remind everyone that area and extent are derivative metrics, and especially this early in the season are far from definitive in determining where the end of the season will land.

Watch albedo.  Watch import of latent heat (moisture) from lower latitudes.  Watch melt pond faction.  Watch Atlantification.  And so forth.

Watch, very carefully, regional thickness.  Over wide areas, it’s as much as 30-40% less - in many cases, under 2 meters - over large stretches of the Arctic.  My past analysis suggests that in a typical year, any given region of the Arctic will loose about that much - around 1.9 meters - of thickness in a not particularly exceptional melt year.

Does this mean a record smashing year is at hand?  I don’t know yet.  Maybe.  Maybe not. It depends on many, many factors which really are only just now starting to play out.  I’d say we’re way too early in the process to start fighting about it.
This space for Rent.

Freegrass

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4053
  • Autodidacticism is a complicated word
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 996
  • Likes Given: 1291
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #295 on: May 27, 2024, 03:03:54 PM »
Latest Five Day Forecast + Last 5 Days
Wind + Temp @ Surface
30 day HYCOM (with missing data)
AMSR2 Central Arctic Leads Animation
Large GiFs!

A lot of heat coming in from Siberia.
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again.

kiwichick16

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1039
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 99
  • Likes Given: 41
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #296 on: May 28, 2024, 03:00:36 AM »
+1  JDA   ....thankyou  ....excellent reminder to us  of the extreme change the arctic is witnessing

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2462
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1022
  • Likes Given: 1063
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #297 on: May 28, 2024, 03:40:15 PM »
Taymylyr's record May temp is 7.8'C , the forecast ( via Windy ) for today is 10'C and for Fri is 22'C . Extreme change in action ?
 
Talking of inaction ,I am sorry to see the polylick threads are much more active than those covering Arctic ice , especially as the forecasts for the next week+ are possibly the worst since 2012 (or for milennia ? ).
« Last Edit: May 28, 2024, 03:46:54 PM by be cause »
There is no death , the Son of God is We .

kassy

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8588
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2064
  • Likes Given: 2002
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #298 on: May 28, 2024, 03:53:29 PM »
Really curious to see how this year pans out for all reasons stated above.

I think a certain drift was inevitable. There is never that much action in winter and Antarctica usually did it´s thing. Last few Arctic summers were sort of average (for the new normal).

When the forum started quite a big group probably expected a quicker melt out but that was compensated by the Slow Transition. Meanwhile AGW consequences in the non Arctic sphere have gotten remarkably worse.

We used to think of the Arctic ice and it´s loss as the canary in the coalmine or a warning but that is very likely wrong. It will be more like a nasty extra kick for global temps.

We´ll see what this summer brings.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Paul

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 142
  • Likes Given: 9
Re: The 2024 melting season
« Reply #299 on: May 28, 2024, 07:06:06 PM »
Talking of inaction ,I am sorry to see the polylick threads are much more active than those covering Arctic ice , especially as the forecasts for the next week+ are possibly the worst since 2012 (or for milennia ? ).

Really? Apart from the Laptev  to an extent the forecast for the short to medium term looks fairly unremarkable to my eyes  All early days of course though but going by the lack of melt ponds compared to some years then it has looked like it's been a slow start in terms of early indicators.