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rboyd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #300 on: June 30, 2017, 10:38:43 PM »
Extreme heatwaves could push Gulf climate beyond human endurance, study shows

"Oil heartlands of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and Iran’s coast will experience higher temperatures and humidity than ever before on Earth if the world fails to cut carbon emissions"

Story from 2015, but very apt given the headlines about heat extremes coming out of Iran. The Middle East fossil fuel heartland will experience unlivable combinations of heat and humidity. Seems we may be getting there faster than expected. May also be impossible to have the outside rituals of the Hajj.

magnamentis

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #301 on: June 30, 2017, 11:00:23 PM »
Extreme heatwaves could push Gulf climate beyond human endurance, study shows

"Oil heartlands of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and Iran’s coast will experience higher temperatures and humidity than ever before on Earth if the world fails to cut carbon emissions"

Story from 2015, but very apt given the headlines about heat extremes coming out of Iran. The Middle East fossil fuel heartland will experience unlivable combinations of heat and humidity. Seems we may be getting there faster than expected. May also be impossible to have the outside rituals of the Hajj.

the humidity part sounds interesting and a bit of time into the future since that regions is pure desert land and currently one of the dryer places on planet earth. is there any explanation why that region is expected to change from dry to humid climate or is it just one of many modeled theories?
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rboyd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #302 on: June 30, 2017, 11:16:06 PM »
magnamentis, it may be that the humidity becomes high for a desert location. With these temperatures, doesn't take much humidity to make things unlivable. As it says below, there is moist air from the Persian Gulf to the south. Most of this area is close to the coast.

"The excessively hot air over Ahvaz, a city of 1.1 million people, felt even more stifling due to high humidity. As the temperature climbed into the high 120s, the dew point, a measure of humidity, peaked in the low 70s; a high level for the desert location (due to moist air flow from the Persian Gulf, to the south). The heat index — a measure of how hot it feels factoring in the humidity — exceeded 140 degrees. This combination of heat and humidity was so extreme that it was beyond levels the heat index was designed to compute.

In the Persian Gulf city of Jask, Iran, about 800 miles southeast of Ahvaz, the humidity was even more suffocating. The dew point on Wednesday morning hit 91.4 degrees. Dew points above 90 are quite rare. The highest dew point ever measured on Earth is 95 degrees (35 Celsius), set at Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, on July 8, 2003."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/06/29/iran-city-soars-to-record-of-129-degrees-near-hottest-ever-reliably-measured-on-earth/?utm_term=.48f6ac388c16

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #303 on: July 04, 2017, 03:15:20 AM »
This Map Shows How Badly Climate Change Will Impact Each County In The US
As temperatures go up, the US economy will suffer, according to a new study. And the warmer it gets, the worse the damages will be.
US counties face steep economic damages tied to future global warming, with the poorest counties to be hit hardest, according to a county-by-county analysis published on Thursday.

The warmer it gets, the worse that farms, businesses, and people will fare.

“As temperatures goes up, the economy gets damaged,” study author Amir Jina of the University of Chicago told BuzzFeed News, adding that “for each additional degree, there’s increasing damages done.”...
https://www.buzzfeed.com/zahrahirji/climate-change-hurts-local-economies-in-us-study-shows

 Interactive map at the above link.
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rboyd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #304 on: July 04, 2017, 06:52:47 AM »
This Map Shows How Badly Climate Change Will Impact Each County In The US
As temperatures go up, the US economy will suffer, according to a new study. And the warmer it gets, the worse the damages will be.
US counties face steep economic damages tied to future global warming, with the poorest counties to be hit hardest, according to a county-by-county analysis published on Thursday.


The study seems to seriously underestimate the amount of damage as temperatures increase, a problem with many of these economics damage-type assessments. From the graph below, taken from the study - a 6 degree centigrade rise in temperature reduces US GDP by about 7%? 6 degrees is the end of civilization, and the economy as we know it.

The study includes climate scientists, strange that they would think that a 6 degrees global average temperature rise will create such a small impact? Even worse, from the paper "8°C warming is 6.4 to 15.7% GDP annually"

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1362.full

« Last Edit: July 04, 2017, 07:03:48 AM by rboyd »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #305 on: July 05, 2017, 02:44:33 PM »
Yes. That sure seems to be a hopelessly inaccurate chart.

rboyd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #306 on: July 05, 2017, 05:11:34 PM »
Its based on an economic model, when was the last time an economist accurately predicted the GDP growth rate for a single country for the following few years accurately? Amazing how they keep failing, but also keep their positions of power over how we make judgements about the future.

Best to ignore them, and treat 2 degrees as the line in the sand. The approach that the UN IPCC is taking.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #307 on: July 09, 2017, 08:22:16 PM »
Climate change threatens nomadic life in Morocco
The Max Planck Institute for Chemistry predicts that temperatures in the Middle East and North Africa will increase twice as fast as the global average. Even if the overall rise in temperatures can be held below the Paris climate accord’s target of 2 degrees Celsius, the entire region is likely to become uninhabitable, the institute said in a 2016 statement.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/07/04/morocco-nomadic-life-danger-climate-change/440637001/
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pileus

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #308 on: July 10, 2017, 02:08:51 PM »
A sweeping and comprehensive piece in NY Magazine that covers much ground, ultimately with respect to the entire Earth becoming less liveable as the myriad effects of global temperature and CO2 levels increase.  A long essay that is worth the time.

This may not be the appropriate place for this article, so Neven please move if you see fit.

New York Magazine - July 10 - David Wallace Wells

The Uninhabitable Earth
Famine, economic collapse, a sun that cooks us: What climate change could wreak — sooner than you think.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html

It is, I promise, worse than you think. If your anxiety about global warming is dominated by fears of sea-level rise, you are barely scratching the surface of what terrors are possible, even within the lifetime of a teenager today. And yet the swelling seas — and the cities they will drown — have so dominated the picture of global warming, and so overwhelmed our capacity for climate panic, that they have occluded our perception of other threats, many much closer at hand. Rising oceans are bad, in fact very bad; but fleeing the coastline will not be enough.

Indeed, absent a significant adjustment to how billions of humans conduct their lives, parts of the Earth will likely become close to uninhabitable, and other parts horrifically inhospitable, as soon as the end of this century.
---
But no matter how well-informed you are, you are surely not alarmed enough. Over the past decades, our culture has gone apocalyptic with zombie movies and Mad Max dystopias, perhaps the collective result of displaced climate anxiety, and yet when it comes to contemplating real-world warming dangers, we suffer from an incredible failure of imagination. The reasons for that are many: the timid language of scientific probabilities, which the climatologist James Hansen once called “scientific reticence” in a paper chastising scientists for editing their own observations so conscientiously that they failed to communicate how dire the threat really was; the fact that the country is dominated by a group of technocrats who believe any problem can be solved and an opposing culture that doesn’t even see warming as a problem worth addressing; the way that climate denialism has made scientists even more cautious in offering speculative warnings; the simple speed of change and, also, its slowness, such that we are only seeing effects now of warming from decades past; our uncertainty about uncertainty, which the climate writer Naomi Oreskes in particular has suggested stops us from preparing as though anything worse than a median outcome were even possible; the way we assume climate change will hit hardest elsewhere, not everywhere; the smallness (two degrees) and largeness (1.8 trillion tons) and abstractness (400 parts per million) of the numbers; the discomfort of considering a problem that is very difficult, if not impossible, to solve; the altogether incomprehensible scale of that problem, which amounts to the prospect of our own annihilation; simple fear. But aversion arising from fear is a form of denial, too.

In between scientific reticence and science fiction is science itself. This article is the result of dozens of interviews and exchanges with climatologists and researchers in related fields and reflects hundreds of scientific papers on the subject of climate change. What follows is not a series of predictions of what will happen — that will be determined in large part by the much-less-certain science of human response. Instead, it is a portrait of our best understanding of where the planet is heading absent aggressive action. It is unlikely that all of these warming scenarios will be fully realized, largely because the devastation along the way will shake our complacency. But those scenarios, and not the present climate, are the baseline. In fact, they are our schedule.


rboyd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #309 on: July 10, 2017, 07:10:19 PM »
pileus - great article, so rare to see such blunt realism.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #310 on: July 11, 2017, 12:51:39 AM »
The "wildlife-urban interface" may be becoming an even more dangerous place.

Why a Bear Attacked a Teen In His Sleep
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/07/black-bear-attack-campers-head-colorado-spd/
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pileus

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #311 on: July 11, 2017, 01:23:49 AM »
pileus - great article, so rare to see such blunt realism.

Dr Mann and others have responded with push back on the extent of he "doomsaying" and some misrepresentation of the science.  While these are of course valid call outs, changing the tone of the risk discussion to be more specific and perhaps frightening will be necessary if there is any hope for sufficient future action and preparation.  But if there is any bogus or exaggerated science, it should rightfully be criticized.

TerryM

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #312 on: July 11, 2017, 05:50:55 AM »
The "wildlife-urban interface" may be becoming an even more dangerous place.

Why a Bear Attacked a Teen In His Sleep
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/07/black-bear-attack-campers-head-colorado-spd/



Sleepwalking bears should always be given a wide berth, and awakened slowly and gently.  8)


Terry

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #313 on: July 11, 2017, 02:08:54 PM »
In order to survive the current social-political-environmental challenges in the knowledge of there being certain future challenges (CC, climate refugees, etc.), many are functionally sleepwalking.  Especially in places like Florida with "stand your ground" laws, these sleepwalking bears should definitely be given a wide berth.
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rboyd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #314 on: July 11, 2017, 06:37:22 PM »
pileus - great article, so rare to see such blunt realism.

Dr Mann and others have responded with push back on the extent of he "doomsaying" and some misrepresentation of the science.  While these are of course valid call outs, changing the tone of the risk discussion to be more specific and perhaps frightening will be necessary if there is any hope for sufficient future action and preparation.  But if there is any bogus or exaggerated science, it should rightfully be criticized.

I absolutely agree with Dr. Mann on the reporting of the UAH satellite data, which basically corrected some major errors that had made it an outlier versus other data sets. The changes simply aligned it properly with the other data sets, getting rid of a major denier crutch, it did not show that the actual warming was any greater. Absolutely shameful and sloppy journalism.

I am saddened at the tone of Dr. Manns response to the NYM article. What is reported is a possible outcome and he should have said that. Calling it "doomist framing", rather than one possible outcome, is a great over reaction.

Mozi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #315 on: July 11, 2017, 11:29:01 PM »
You could also call it 'putting two and two together.'

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #316 on: July 13, 2017, 02:58:49 PM »
A new project in the area flooded by Hurrricane Katrina does not appear to benefit the remaining residents.

Army Corps Faces Mountain Of Mistrust In New Orleans' Ninth Ward
In New Orleans' Lower Ninth Ward, a new infrastructure project has reopened old wounds.

For more than 50 years, the Army Corps of Engineers has tried to expand the Inner Harbor Navigational Canal. The shipping canal connects the Mississippi River to Lake Pontchartrain. Now, officials want to dig it up and build a new lock to let more tugboats and barges through.

But the people of Lower Ninth are not having it. The conflict is emblematic of a long history of mistrust.
...
http://www.npr.org/2017/07/11/536630382/army-corps-faces-mountain-of-mistrust-in-new-orleans-ninth-ward
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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #317 on: July 16, 2017, 12:14:26 AM »
‘The permafrost is dying’: Bethel sees increased shifting of roads and buildings

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/rural-alaska/2017/07/07/the-permafrost-is-dying-bethel-sees-increased-shifting-of-roads-and-buildings/

Along the main thoroughfare here, drivers brake for warped asphalt. Houses sink unevenly into the ground. Walls crack and doors stick. Utility poles tilt, sometimes at alarming angles.

Permafrost in and around Bethel is deteriorating and shrinking, even more quickly than most places in Alaska.

Since the first buildings out here, people have struggled with the freeze and thaw of the soils above the permafrost. Now those challenges are amplified.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #318 on: July 20, 2017, 08:00:19 PM »
Too Sunny in Philadelphia? Satellites Zero In on Dangerous Urban Heat Island
- Satellite and socioeconomic data can pinpoint which of a city’s neighborhoods are most at risk during heat waves
Cities around the world are getting hotter as the planet warms, and the consequences can be deadly. Researchers have linked heat waves like the one that hit Russia in 2010—killing 55,000 people—to climate change. And even without global warming, cities tend to bake when the weather gets warm. Surfaces such as asphalt roads and concrete buildings absorb and then radiate a lot of solar energy, which can leave urban areas 6 to 8 degrees Celsius warmer than rural regions.

Although some people can just crank up the air-conditioning amid increasingly brutal heat, many cannot. Urban decision makers need to know where to focus resources as they plan their adaptation strategies, potentially as a matter of life and death. But how can they pinpoint the most vulnerable populations? In a recent study researchers answered this question for Philadelphia by mapping the places where residents are most at risk....
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/too-sunny-in-philadelphia-satellites-zero-in-on-dangerous-urban-heat-islands/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #319 on: July 29, 2017, 07:29:01 PM »
U.S.:  Significant storm over the Mid-Atlantic coast, including New Jersey, this weekend.

"Ocean City [New Jersey] living up to its name. Many roads flooded and impassable (by car ;) )"
https://twitter.com/bfrayfray/status/891324810466390017

"Very heavy rainfall totals across parts of the central Appalachians and mid Atlantic region during the last 24-48 hours"
https://twitter.com/nwseastern/status/891328896058228736

"Mount Holly NWS Rainfall Reports"
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/891304390811844610

"BH EMERG MGMT: Beach Haven Lifeguards are advising the ocean is extremely dangerous today. Swimming is prohibited.  Stay out of the ocean."
https://twitter.com/tedgreenbergnbc/status/891292625675878400
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Csnavywx

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #320 on: July 30, 2017, 06:59:00 PM »
Extreme heatwaves could push Gulf climate beyond human endurance, study shows

"Oil heartlands of Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and Iran’s coast will experience higher temperatures and humidity than ever before on Earth if the world fails to cut carbon emissions"

Story from 2015, but very apt given the headlines about heat extremes coming out of Iran. The Middle East fossil fuel heartland will experience unlivable combinations of heat and humidity. Seems we may be getting there faster than expected. May also be impossible to have the outside rituals of the Hajj.

the humidity part sounds interesting and a bit of time into the future since that regions is pure desert land and currently one of the dryer places on planet earth. is there any explanation why that region is expected to change from dry to humid climate or is it just one of many modeled theories?

Just saw this post.

Despite being very dry precipitation-wise, the desert areas near the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea are the most humid on earth. The reason is evaporation. The extreme temperatures drive SSTs well into the 90s (mid 30s C) in the summer, resulting in a shallow layer of very humid air, especially once the early-summer Shamal wind dies out. Dewpoints regularly soar into the 80s. Mass subsidence from the Hadley Cell (resulting in a very strong subtropical high) prevents virtually all convection and thunderstorms and the moisture layer tends to be shallow enough to mix out any updrafts that do get going (except over the Hijaz-Azir mountains in Yemen).

source: I worked, lived and forecasted weather in this region for a few years and experienced it first hand. It isn't pleasant to experience heat indices in the 130s.

The highest wet bulb temp I experienced there was 31C. I was completely drenched in sweat just walking the few blocks into work in the morning and I was in shape at the time. I'm certain it isn't survivable for more than 6 hours without external cooling. Add 2C and you're talking heat exhaustion and heatstroke in an hour or two.

magnamentis

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #321 on: July 30, 2017, 08:06:18 PM »

Just saw this post.

Despite being very dry precipitation-wise, the desert areas near the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea are the most humid on earth. The reason is evaporation. The extreme temperatures drive SSTs well into the 90s (mid 30s C) in the summer, resulting in a shallow layer of very humid air, especially once the early-summer Shamal wind dies out. Dewpoints regularly soar into the 80s. Mass subsidence from the Hadley Cell (resulting in a very strong subtropical high) prevents virtually all convection and thunderstorms and the moisture layer tends to be shallow enough to mix out any updrafts that do get going (except over the Hijaz-Azir mountains in Yemen).

source: I worked, lived and forecasted weather in this region for a few years and experienced it first hand. It isn't pleasant to experience heat indices in the 130s.

The highest wet bulb temp I experienced there was 31C. I was completely drenched in sweat just walking the few blocks into work in the morning and I was in shape at the time. I'm certain it isn't survivable for more than 6 hours without external cooling. Add 2C and you're talking heat exhaustion and heatstroke in an hour or two.

thanks for the heads-up.

if i understand you correctly, despite the few precipitations in that regions in general, relative humidity (air-humidity) is more on the tropica (very humid) side?

or did you mean the highest humidity in desert regions on earth. i'm making sure beause on my various stays in the region, especially red sea, i never felt as uncomfortable due to humidity like for example in thailand, gambia or florida in summer, so i assume it's the latter.
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Csnavywx

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #322 on: July 30, 2017, 09:39:56 PM »

Just saw this post.

Despite being very dry precipitation-wise, the desert areas near the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea are the most humid on earth. The reason is evaporation. The extreme temperatures drive SSTs well into the 90s (mid 30s C) in the summer, resulting in a shallow layer of very humid air, especially once the early-summer Shamal wind dies out. Dewpoints regularly soar into the 80s. Mass subsidence from the Hadley Cell (resulting in a very strong subtropical high) prevents virtually all convection and thunderstorms and the moisture layer tends to be shallow enough to mix out any updrafts that do get going (except over the Hijaz-Azir mountains in Yemen).

source: I worked, lived and forecasted weather in this region for a few years and experienced it first hand. It isn't pleasant to experience heat indices in the 130s.

The highest wet bulb temp I experienced there was 31C. I was completely drenched in sweat just walking the few blocks into work in the morning and I was in shape at the time. I'm certain it isn't survivable for more than 6 hours without external cooling. Add 2C and you're talking heat exhaustion and heatstroke in an hour or two.

thanks for the heads-up.

if i understand you correctly, despite the few precipitations in that regions in general, relative humidity (air-humidity) is more on the tropica (very humid) side?

or did you mean the highest humidity in desert regions on earth. i'm making sure beause on my various stays in the region, especially red sea, i never felt as uncomfortable due to humidity like for example in thailand, gambia or florida in summer, so i assume it's the latter.

It's the highest air humidity region on the planet in absolute terms. As bad as it can get in Thailand, Florida, etc, you rarely see dewpoints above 80-82. It happens on a regular basis around the Persian Gulf and Red Sea/Gulf of Aden. Here's a recent ob (today) from Bahrain, for instance. This is already worse than the worst I experienced when I lived there 15 years ago. They're reaching it regularly now, apparently.

OBBI 301730Z 08006KT 7000 NSC 35/31 Q0999 NOSIG

That's 95/88 T/Td -- or a 32C Tw. Interesting that it's above the 31C limit listed in Sherwood's paper 7 years ago. If you use the NWS's chart for a heat index, it's off the chart (literally). Probably in the upper 130s. That place is already barely habitable. Give it 40-50 years and you'll start hitting that 35C Tw absolute habitability limit.

Considering the conditions of the habitability limit (gale force winds, wet surface, no clothing), a more sensible limit might be 33C, which would only be 15-20 years.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2017, 10:02:23 PM by Csnavywx »

magnamentis

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #323 on: July 31, 2017, 12:28:07 AM »
thanks a lot, that's something really new i've learned thanks to you and that's a good thing, could save me one day to look like a fool ;)
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pileus

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #324 on: July 31, 2017, 03:50:33 AM »
Quite a week coming up for the Pacific NW.  Record or near record highs expected mid-week in Portland and Seattle.  Roughly a quarter of residences have AC.  Such a beautiful area of the country, but fraught with climate and geologic risk:

> sea level rise
> heavily forested and exposed to wildfire danger when/if extreme drought sets in
> windstorm damage from Pacific cyclone remnants and strong lows
> circa 9.0 earthquake risk from Cascadia Subduction Zone, and mid 7s from Seattle Fault and others nearby
> ring of fire volcanos near high population areas

budmantis

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #325 on: July 31, 2017, 07:00:56 AM »
The last place in the continental U.S. I would expect 100 degree temps is the pacific northwest!

BudM

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #326 on: July 31, 2017, 09:39:02 PM »
Western Heat Wave May Near All-Time Record Highs in Oregon and Washington; Rare 100-Degree Heat Possible in Seattle
A blistering heat wave will sear the West Coast this week, threatening some all-time record highs in parts of Oregon and Washington, pushing Seattle toward a rare triple-digit high.

The National Weather Service (NWS) has already issued excessive heat warnings and heat advisories from parts of western Washington to the Sacramento Valley of California and western Nevada.

Current Heat Alerts
The NWS office in Portland, Oregon, warned this upcoming heat wave could be the city's strongest in eight years.
https://www.wunderground.com/news/record-heat-west-early-august-2017
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pileus

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #327 on: August 01, 2017, 03:12:36 PM »
It's also been very dry in parts of the PNW, after a record rainy in season some areas.  So you have all the lush growth from the copious moisture + extreme dryness + record heat = dangerous fire conditions.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #328 on: August 02, 2017, 04:02:12 AM »
 :o  Massive flooding in Miami Beach.  The effects of hours of training thunderstorms from Tropical Depression Emily -- not a hurricane!

"This video from Miami Beach is pretty scary"
https://twitter.com/officialjoelf/status/892526423294038016
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #329 on: August 02, 2017, 04:27:45 AM »
Tropical Depression Emily rain pounds South Florida and Beach pumps fail without power
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article164884807.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #330 on: August 02, 2017, 12:35:41 PM »
Total gridlock at rush hour in Miami Beach yesterday.  "I'm just trying to get home."

"Miami Beach is basically shut down right now likely due to flooding from 5+" and approaching high tide. What a mess."
https://twitter.com/ttrogdon/status/892478096028434432



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pileus

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #331 on: August 02, 2017, 03:02:24 PM »
Tropical Depression Emily rain pounds South Florida and Beach pumps fail without power
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article164884807.html


A good reminder that adaptation and counter measures are often half measures.  Relying on an electrical grid that can fail, emergency food supplies that can spoil, responders that can't respond, etc, will make a lot of planning look like that old cliche from von Moltke:  no battle plan survives contact with the enemy.

rboyd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #332 on: August 02, 2017, 08:00:44 PM »
Reminds me of the great economist assumption that is required to make their equations work "ceteris paribus" - everything else remains the same. Of course, with extreme events they never do remain the same. Like the power for the water pumps, or the liquidity during a market crash.

Daniel B.

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #333 on: August 02, 2017, 08:31:19 PM »
Tropical Depression Emily rain pounds South Florida and Beach pumps fail without power
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/miami-beach/article164884807.html


Tropical depressions can often drop more rainfall than hurricanes.  This is not that unusual for this area.

ghoti

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #334 on: August 02, 2017, 11:02:14 PM »
Flooding of streets above the level of car doors is not unusual for this area? Maybe won't be unusual in the future but it is not yet common.

pileus

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #335 on: August 03, 2017, 02:52:31 AM »
Seattle temps were suppressed by the BC fire smoke that poured into the area.  85, well under the expected low 90 to mid 90s.  One climate change enhanced lever tweaking another climate change enhanced lever.

Portland hit 102 today.

josh-j

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #336 on: August 04, 2017, 06:01:31 PM »
Extreme heat warnings issued in Europe as temperatures pass 40C

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/04/extreme-heat-warnings-issued-europe-temperatures-pass-40c

Eleven southern and central European countries have issued extreme heat warnings amid a brutal heatwave nicknamed Lucifer, with residents and tourists urged to take precautions and scientists warning worse could be still to come.

...

The highest temperature on Thursday was 42C in Cordoba, Spain, and Catania, Italy. Split in Croatia also hit 42.3C on Wednesday. The spell is forecast to peak at the weekend with temperatures of 46C or higher in Italy and parts of the Balkans.

...

Writing in the journal Environmental Research Letters, the scientists said if a similar “mega-heatwave” to that of 2003 were to occur at the end of the century, when average temperatures are widely expected to be noticeably higher after decades of global warming, temperatures could pass 50c.

Concerning note at the end stating there is forecasted to be a fall in agricultural production in Italy as a result of this heatwave.

Daniel B.

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #337 on: August 04, 2017, 07:48:02 PM »
Flooding of streets above the level of car doors is not unusual for this area? Maybe won't be unusual in the future but it is not yet common.

Actually, this storm has produced less than rainfall and flooding than many others.  The rainfall totals from Emily ranged fron 4-6" across Dade county.  This pales in comparison to past storms.  Hurricane Cleo in 1964 dumped 9" of rain over the Miami Area.  Hurricane Andrew in 1992 dumped 14" on the area, causing massive destruction.  Miami Beach was completely cut off from greater Miami after the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 (before they were given names).  Rainfall totals have not been recorded, but the storm surge was a record 17 feet.  The 1928 "Okeechobee Hurricane" was the second deadliest on record, due to rainfall that caused the aforementioned lake to overflow its banks and flood the surrounding areas. 

Yes, this is fairly common for a hurricane or tropical storm hitting this area.  However, even non-tropical storms can cause severe flooding.  The 1984 "Thanksgiving Storm" dumped 11" of rain on West Palm Beach, and combined with gale force winds, produced 5' tides and 20' swells.

 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #338 on: August 06, 2017, 03:28:54 PM »
Because the Saudi Arabia location was not recording temperatures at night.

Death Valley Sets New Global Record for Hottest Single Month
Sustaining extreme heat for an entire month is a more impressive feat than doing so for just one day. This past July, Furnace Creek station at Death Valley, California, measured an average monthly temperature of 107.4°F—the hottest single month ever reliably measured anywhere on Earth.

Average monthly temperatures are typically calculated by adding the highs and lows for each day of the month, then dividing by 2 and dividing by the number of days in the month. A more precise method is to include every hour’s temperature reading and to divide accordingly. By using this technique, which is applied by the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), the Death Valley average for July 2017 was 107.24°F. (Note that conversions from degrees Fahrenheit to Celsius, and vice versa, may have a small effect on the results from Death Valley.)

Various media sources, including USA Today and the Washington Post, reported the Death Valley reading as being the second-hottest monthly average ever observed on the planet, behind the 107.44°F reported at the King Khaled Military City site in northern Saudi Arabia during August 2014. New evidence clearly shows the value from King Khaled to have been in error. Thus the Death Valley figure from this past July is, in fact, the warmest single month (average monthly temperature) reliably measured to date in the world.

The problem with observations from the King Khaled site
Brian Brettschneider (International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks) discovered this week that during each day of August 2014—and, in fact for many other months and years around this time—the King Khaled Military City site was recording temperature data only once per hour, and only between the hours of 9 am and 9 pm local time. ...
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/new-global-record-hottest-single-month-established-death-valley
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Daniel B.

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #339 on: August 07, 2017, 01:53:06 PM »
Because the Saudi Arabia location was not recording temperatures at night.

Death Valley Sets New Global Record for Hottest Single Month
Sustaining extreme heat for an entire month is a more impressive feat than doing so for just one day. This past July, Furnace Creek station at Death Valley, California, measured an average monthly temperature of 107.4°F—the hottest single month ever reliably measured anywhere on Earth.

Average monthly temperatures are typically calculated by adding the highs and lows for each day of the month, then dividing by 2 and dividing by the number of days in the month. A more precise method is to include every hour’s temperature reading and to divide accordingly. By using this technique, which is applied by the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), the Death Valley average for July 2017 was 107.24°F. (Note that conversions from degrees Fahrenheit to Celsius, and vice versa, may have a small effect on the results from Death Valley.)

Various media sources, including USA Today and the Washington Post, reported the Death Valley reading as being the second-hottest monthly average ever observed on the planet, behind the 107.44°F reported at the King Khaled Military City site in northern Saudi Arabia during August 2014. New evidence clearly shows the value from King Khaled to have been in error. Thus the Death Valley figure from this past July is, in fact, the warmest single month (average monthly temperature) reliably measured to date in the world.

The problem with observations from the King Khaled site
Brian Brettschneider (International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks) discovered this week that during each day of August 2014—and, in fact for many other months and years around this time—the King Khaled Military City site was recording temperature data only once per hour, and only between the hours of 9 am and 9 pm local time. ...
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/new-global-record-hottest-single-month-established-death-valley

Death Valley beat it own record (from 1917) by 0.2F.  This was largely due to increased nighttime temperatures, which were a whopping 7F above the average for the month.  Day time highs were a mere 2F above the average.  This is consistent with global warming trends across the globe.

pileus

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #340 on: August 07, 2017, 03:27:45 PM »
Flooding of streets above the level of car doors is not unusual for this area? Maybe won't be unusual in the future but it is not yet common.


Actually, this storm has produced less than rainfall and flooding than many others.  The rainfall totals from Emily ranged fron 4-6" across Dade county.  This pales in comparison to past storms.  Hurricane Cleo in 1964 dumped 9" of rain over the Miami Area.  Hurricane Andrew in 1992 dumped 14" on the area, causing massive destruction.  Miami Beach was completely cut off from greater Miami after the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 (before they were given names).  Rainfall totals have not been recorded, but the storm surge was a record 17 feet.  The 1928 "Okeechobee Hurricane" was the second deadliest on record, due to rainfall that caused the aforementioned lake to overflow its banks and flood the surrounding areas. 

Yes, this is fairly common for a hurricane or tropical storm hitting this area.  However, even non-tropical storms can cause severe flooding.  The 1984 "Thanksgiving Storm" dumped 11" of rain on West Palm Beach, and combined with gale force winds, produced 5' tides and 20' swells.


One of the takeaways with Emily wrt Miami is the vulnerability of the counter measures.  Power failures along with no backup generators led to failure of the pumping mechanisms.  Here below we have yet another example in New Orleans from last week.  The pumping mechanisms were overwhelmed by the intensity of the precipitation rates and flooding.  So two of the most vulnerable cities in the US performed poorly, and with sea level trends rising and the threat of enhanced cyclones and precipitation in the future, it should call into question the readiness and soundness of adaptive measures.

http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_flooding_monday_up.html

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #341 on: August 07, 2017, 03:35:32 PM »
"New drone footage shows New Orleans under water following heavy rainfall and flash floods: "
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/894450006651879424
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #342 on: August 07, 2017, 04:09:32 PM »
What it's like, living in a flooded section of New Orleans.

Just sitting here on my porch, watching the trash float by
http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/flooding_new_orleans_mid-city.html


Truck driver who sped down flooded Mid-City streets fired amid video outrage
http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/flood_driver_fired_mid-city_au.html
« Last Edit: August 07, 2017, 04:15:32 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #343 on: August 09, 2017, 12:28:05 AM »
 New Orleans pump failure now admitted

8 major drainage pumps and 6 “constant duty” pumps were broken during Saturday's floods in New Orleans
Eight major drainage pumps weren't working during the severe flooding in New Orleans on Saturday, in addition to others being down for maintenance. But the Sewerage and Water Board's initial statement that the system was operating at full capacity was intended to mean that "all of the pump stations were working at the capacity they had available to them," the board's general superintendent said Tuesday (Aug. 5).

Joseph Becker's explanation for the apparent conflict in statements drew audible outrage from the crowd packed in the City Council chambers for a public meeting held to examine the city's response. More than 9 inches of rain was recorded, leading to floods that damaged homes, businesses and vehicles in Mid-City and other neighborhoods.

In addition to the eight major pumps, another six, smaller capacity "constant duty" pumps that stay on for everyday groundwater needs were also out, Becker said.

Council President Jason Williams suggested that the Sewerage and Water Board's initial insistence that the system was fully working was a "complete fabrication." ...
https://articles.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/08/8_drainage_pumps_were_broken_d.amp
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #344 on: August 12, 2017, 01:40:59 AM »
Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards declares state of emergency over New Orleans flooding concerns
Updated on August 11, 2017 at 9:09 AM Posted on August 10, 2017 at 11:42 AM
Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards has declared a state of emergency Thursday (Aug. 10) as a precautionary measure, in the event that the state has to help with flooding in New Orleans over the next few days.  

"If we get the heavier expected rainfall, time will be of the essence," Edwards said at a press conference with Mayor Mitch Landrieu Thursday morning. "We are working well together. Obviously this is a serious situation, but it is not something to be panicked about." 
http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_flood_emergency.html

Before New Orleans flood, audit warned of drainage system's deficiencies
https://articles.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_flooding_latest_sw.amp

Here's how New Orleans' drainage is supposed to work
http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_flooding_how_the_d.html

'We can't pump our way out': Rethinking New Orleans' approach to flood control
http://www.nola.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/08/new_orleans_flooding_living_wi.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #345 on: August 14, 2017, 03:24:58 PM »
Kees vander Leun: Heavy heatwave in Iraq: temperature in Basrah, city of 2 million people, to hit 49-52°C (120-126F), 10 days in a row!
https://twitter.com/soubundanga/status/896755350828859393
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #346 on: August 14, 2017, 04:31:31 PM »
Many people underestimate the impact of climate change on insects, but the linked article on Arctic mosquitoes is only one example many, many such impacts:

Title: "Why the Arctic's Mosquito Problem Is Getting Bigger, Badder"

http://www.nationalgeographic.com.au/nature/why-the-arctics-mosquito-problem-is-getting-bigger-badder.aspx

Extract: "During two recent field seasons in Greenland, Culler found that with the Arctic already warming twice as fast as the rest of the globe, ponds and lakes on the tundra are melting up to several weeks sooner. When that happens mosquitoes take wing earlier.

“It was really when the pond thawed that triggered the hatch,” Culler says. “That’s not unexpected. Lots of biology is triggered by these melting events.”

But she also found that warming allowed the insects to develop faster, which had a huge impact on survival. Mosquitoes are most vulnerable in their early life stages, when they are easily gobbled up by diving pond beetles. Even though these beetles, too, are growing faster and eating more, mosquitoes still managed to make it to their adult stage in greater numbers."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #347 on: August 19, 2017, 04:20:30 PM »
Kuwait's inferno: how will the world's hottest city survive climate change?
It is 9am and the temperature in Kuwait City is 45C and rising, but already people working outside. A row of litter-pickers are already hard at work along a coastal highway, their entire bodies covered to protect them from the sun. Outside one of the city’s many malls, valets hover beside the air-conditioned entrance, while two men in white hats huddle wearily next to their ice cream stands.

Other city residents are luckier. They can avoid the outdoors altogether, escaping the inferno by sheltering in malls, cars and office buildings, where temperatures are kept polar-cold.

For years, Kuwait’s climate has been steadily heating up. In the summer months, the Gulf state now frequently touches 50C, and was last year awarded the grim prize of being the hottest place on earth, when temperatures reached a staggering high of 54C.

But while the capital is making plans to prepare for climate change and the rising heat, there are growing concerns for those residents who cannot afford to shelter inside, and mounting questions about how such an energy-intensive city can survive as resources such as water and oil dwindle.
...
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/aug/18/kuwait-city-hottest-place-earth-climate-change-gulf-oil-temperatures
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #348 on: August 22, 2017, 10:13:54 PM »
Taking precaution: New Orleans crafting evacuation plans in case heavy rainfall hits while drainage repairs continue
New Orleans, in consultation with state and federal officials, is developing a plan to evacuate the city if unusually heavy rainfall is expected while repairs are being made to the pumps and power turbines that drive its drainage system.

The exact threshold at which an evacuation would be called depends on a variety of factors, but one person familiar with the plans said that while the Sewerage & Water Board’s equipment is at diminished capacity over the next few weeks, a forecast of a rare storm that would drop 12 inches [305 mm] of rain over a 24-hour period could be the trigger.
...
http://www.theadvocate.com/new_orleans/news/article_c2b40bd4-85ee-11e7-af72-23bae8c5c4a6.html


But the catastrophic floods of a few weeks ago (see above posts) happened with "only" about nine inches of rain...

... and two tropical storms are headed for the U.S. in the next 7 days:
https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/899975073980973057
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bligh8

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #349 on: August 24, 2017, 06:01:52 AM »
Maybe should have posted this sooner but I wanted to see how it played out. Referencing post #270 & #272.
I live at 40deg North, in NJ, along the east coast, not far from the back bay.  Several months ago FEMA offered at grant to do a feasibility study concerning a sea wall to protect infrastructure and private property from flooding due to sea level rise.

This smallish neighborhood is quite unique, it sits on an isthmus of land with three ways in/out, two of which are bridges over salt water(both of whom flood at mean higher high tides).  The bay/tidal basin is 880 acres, nearly 2/3 of which wash out with the tide twice a day. Over the last 2-3 years there has been a marked increase in the nuisance flooding, mostly water backing up through the storm drains, add in a east set wind and water is over the road. 

Since this grant was announced the sales folks have come in heavy handed, from concrete mattresses to a Living shore Lines. I was at the town hall meeting when a slide show was given on the living shoreline; the salesman giving the presentation laughingly skipped right over the section marked; Climate Change…SLR and Mitigation.  I stood right up and said “that’s why were here, is it not?  Almost know one wanted to hear about this.
Some of the ensuing remarks were just staggering…”I’ve lived here for 40yrs and it has never flooded”…..”the Ice Caps aren’t melting, that’s preposterous! 

I’m now hearing their going with the living shoreline w/some sections of a sea wall,
which will do nothing. The flood plain contains about 70 high end homes 4-6ft above sea level, (minus 2.5 ft. for the tide swing) which does not matter at all, once this starts homes in the community will be near worthless.

The same thing happened in the Atlantic Highlands about 20 miles north of here.  Folks made such a ruckus about a sea wall blocking their view they did nothing.  Again, in Neptune City…same thing. 

Now, in the long run a 3-4ft sea wall above mean higher high tide, although it presents it’s own set of problems, would delay salt water encroaching onto nearby roads maybe for several decades, but it would eventually fail.  I do not pretend to know the right or wrong of this.  Folks that know tell me to move.  we.ve lived here for 35yrs, my wife says were not moving....I'm thinking....go sailing

bligh