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oren

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #350 on: August 24, 2017, 06:37:06 AM »
Thank you for sharing this, bligh8. Very interesting.

P-maker

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #351 on: August 24, 2017, 11:04:39 AM »
Hi Bligh

You seem to be going through an existential crisis right now. To sell, or not to sell; to fight your neighbours, or not to fight; to fight your President’s focus on selling arms to rich people to protect themselves, or to spend your time doing much more clever things.

In my view (inspired by quite a few similar situations), I would tell my wife to shut up for the moment! Then look for a high-lying house (at least 6-8 m above sea level) with a view over the lowlands. From there, I would engage in local community work to help people downstream of your property escape from flooding, when tropical cyclones  such as #Harvey comes your way (it’s called water tanks). Then I would make sure to install some solar-driven cooling system in order to survive heat waves like in Iraq or Kuwait.

Then I would put on the kettle and expect visitors from overseas.

Cheers P

bligh8

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #352 on: August 24, 2017, 03:56:25 PM »
thanks for the thoughtful replies

Strategies for Flood Risk Reduction for Vulnerable Coastal Populations around Barnegat Bay.

Barnegat Bay is the next bay south, some 30 miles south of Sandy Hook, Raritan Bay & New York Harbor.

Note: this paper uses IPCC values for SLR…. it’s interesting, but 339 pages long.

THREAT OF SEA LEVEL RISE

Coasts are sensitive to sea level rise. A rise in sea level and coastal subsidence will increase the levels of flooding, and the low-lying areas will be permanently inundated. Global warming has raised global sea level about 8 inches since 1880 (US EPA). It is predicted that global mean sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 will be between nine and eighty eight centimeters (Nicholls, 2002). Most models indicate that flooding will continue to worsen as sea surface elevation increases because all storms will be operating on a higher water level at the outlet. Model predictions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate a rapid sea level rise for the Northeast Atlantic Coast of the United States in the twenty-first century (Yin et al., 2009). In the NY/NJ metropolitan region, sea levels are predicted to rise by 18–60 cm by the 2050s, and 24–108 cm by the 2080s over late 20th century levels (Gornitz et al., 2010; Cahoon and Gunttenspergen, 2010). This means that coastal flooding associated with sea level rise will become a significant issue in the next 100 years Relative sea level rise around Barnegat Bay results from ongoing coastal subsidence since the end of the last glacial period as well as eustatic sea level rise caused by melting glaciers and thermal expansion of the ocean. Increases in sea level and runoff have severely stressed existing stormwater infrastructure such as storm sewer pipes, drainage ditches, culverts, detention basins, and household sump pumps. The infrastructure is in need of significant improvements and may need to be redesigned to deal with changing conditions. The following flood maps (Fig. 2.1) show the predicted extent of inundation at Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) when the water in Barnegat Bay rises 1ft, 2ft, 3ft, 4ft, and 6ft for Seaside Heights Borough. The green color represents the low-lying areas. The portrayals of the extent of inundation for other townships / boroughs are provided in Appendix A.

http://www.nj.gov/dep/docs/flood/final-studies/rutgers-barnegat/barnegat-bay-study-area-flood-mitigation-final-report.pdf

See Also:

I see the township using these numbers for guidance’s.

 http://geology.rutgers.edu/images/stories/faculty/miller_kenneth_g/Sealevelfactsheet7112014update.pdf

bligh

P-maker

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #353 on: August 24, 2017, 06:30:27 PM »
Bligh, I told you so:

General SLR until the end of the century: 10-12 feet. Then add a Sandy-like surge of 9-14 feet. It all adds up to 19-26 feet - roughly equal to 6-8 meters above current sealevel.

Happy hunting!

solartim27

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #354 on: August 27, 2017, 06:38:23 PM »
In case you missed this in December, it's coming true now.  Excellent reporting, well worth looking at.  Stock market is going to tank on Monday.
This is part of a series on Houston's flood risk.

Boomtown, Flood Town
"Climate change will bring more frequent and fierce rainstorms to cities like Houston. But unchecked development remains a priority in the famously un-zoned city, creating short-term economic gains for some while increasing flood risks for everyone."
https://projects.propublica.org/houston-cypress/

And do read the companion piece
This is part of a series on Houston's flood risk. Read about why Texas isn't ready for the next big hurricane.
https://projects.propublica.org/houston/
« Last Edit: August 27, 2017, 06:43:57 PM by solartim27 »
FNORD

Daniel B.

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #355 on: August 27, 2017, 08:45:00 PM »
Bligh, I told you so:

General SLR until the end of the century: 10-12 feet. Then add a Sandy-like surge of 9-14 feet. It all adds up to 19-26 feet - roughly equal to 6-8 meters above current sealevel.

Happy hunting!

Seems rather pessimistic.  As stated previously, sea level has risen 8 inches over the past 130 years (EPA), yet you claim thus will accelerate more than 10 fold this century.  What is your explanation for such a change?

rboyd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #356 on: August 27, 2017, 11:05:32 PM »
Bligh, I told you so:

General SLR until the end of the century: 10-12 feet. Then add a Sandy-like surge of 9-14 feet. It all adds up to 19-26 feet - roughly equal to 6-8 meters above current sealevel.

Happy hunting!

Seems rather pessimistic.  As stated previously, sea level has risen 8 inches over the past 130 years (EPA), yet you claim thus will accelerate more than 10 fold this century.  What is your explanation for such a change?

Daniel,

Your comment professes a complete ignorance of recent scientific research in this area (Hansen, Rignot etc.), and the contents of many posts on this blog (see the Sea Level Rise and Cost of Carbon topic), that points to the probability of rapid SLR in the balance of this century. Let's remember that the UN IPCC projections basically ignored more pessimistic views on ice sheet dynamics. With a complex system, such as the climate, historic observations may not be a very useful guide to the future. If you look at the record of global sea level rise you will see the acceleration that has occurred in recent decades.

Due to gravitational effects, and the most significant amount of SLR coming from Antarctica, the rise will be greater (about 25% or more) on the U.S. coasts.

Climate Model Predicts West Antarctic Ice Sheet Could Melt Rapidly

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/31/science/global-warming-antarctica-ice-sheet-sea-level-rise.html?_r=0

Abrupt Sea Level Rise Looms As Increasingly Realistic Threat

"James Hansen, a climatologist at Columbia University, summarized the evidence for rapid sea level rise in a recent controversial paper, raising some eyebrows at its stark warnings of catastrophe. Though many researchers have taken issue with the dramatic tone and specific details of that paper, its conclusion — that multi-meter sea level rise is possible in the next 50, 100, or 200 years — does not seem so alarmist in the face of other recent work."

http://e360.yale.edu/features/abrupt_sea_level_rise_realistic_greenland_antarctica



bligh8

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #357 on: August 28, 2017, 06:17:13 PM »
That 10-12ft remark kinda spooked me. 

Our entire civilization is built on the premise
of a stable coast line, this is something we will not have for centuries to come. I fear we have already lost Greenland and the WAIS and some of, if not all the marine terminating glaciers around east Antarctica.  These papers.. Article #: 5799(2017) doi10.1038,… DOI: 10.1002/2016GlO68506 (it is the timing and no so much the content of this paper), and  whats up in Disco-Uummannaq bay along with the mention of a possible saddle collapse. And of course the dramatic loss of the Arctic sea ice….all of these and a great many many more papers are truly scary.

But I’m a simple old sailor, who in my minds eye, see the vastness of the global destruction and the loss of many a beloved places across the planet due to SLR. Here, back home I shudder as folks march with signs ”No sea wall”…my birdbaths go unused, the nighttime din of the ever-present summertime insects seems all but gone.

I take great delight listing to the sounds of the children laughing and somehow hold out hope that they enjoy their lives as much as I have enjoyed mine.
bligh




Daniel B.

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #358 on: August 28, 2017, 06:56:29 PM »
Bligh, I told you so:

General SLR until the end of the century: 10-12 feet. Then add a Sandy-like surge of 9-14 feet. It all adds up to 19-26 feet - roughly equal to 6-8 meters above current sealevel.

Happy hunting!

Seems rather pessimistic.  As stated previously, sea level has risen 8 inches over the past 130 years (EPA), yet you claim thus will accelerate more than 10 fold this century.  What is your explanation for such a change?

Daniel,

Your comment professes a complete ignorance of recent scientific research in this area (Hansen, Rignot etc.), and the contents of many posts on this blog (see the Sea Level Rise and Cost of Carbon topic), that points to the probability of rapid SLR in the balance of this century. Let's remember that the UN IPCC projections basically ignored more pessimistic views on ice sheet dynamics. With a complex system, such as the climate, historic observations may not be a very useful guide to the future. If you look at the record of global sea level rise you will see the acceleration that has occurred in recent decades.

Due to gravitational effects, and the most significant amount of SLR coming from Antarctica, the rise will be greater (about 25% or more) on the U.S. coasts.

Climate Model Predicts West Antarctic Ice Sheet Could Melt Rapidly

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/31/science/global-warming-antarctica-ice-sheet-sea-level-rise.html?_r=0

Abrupt Sea Level Rise Looms As Increasingly Realistic Threat

"James Hansen, a climatologist at Columbia University, summarized the evidence for rapid sea level rise in a recent controversial paper, raising some eyebrows at its stark warnings of catastrophe. Though many researchers have taken issue with the dramatic tone and specific details of that paper, its conclusion — that multi-meter sea level rise is possible in the next 50, 100, or 200 years — does not seem so alarmist in the face of other recent work."

http://e360.yale.edu/features/abrupt_sea_level_rise_realistic_greenland_antarctica

No, it does not.  Those predictions of rapid SLR this century all include the demise of the WAIS.  There is little evidence that this will occur.  Just large amounts of speculation that it could.  Other research shows that the WAIS has been quite stable over millions of years, and during warmer periods. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4742792/

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016RG000545/abstract

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/05/170505103629.htm

Other publications claim that melting could occur quite rapidly, over a thousand years!

https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/archive/wie-stabil-ist-der-westantarktische-eisschild.html

Choosing only those published reports that share your own biases does not make good science.  Neither does denigrate those who hold different opinions.  What acceleration in recent decades? 

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

Ned W

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #359 on: August 28, 2017, 07:02:53 PM »
What acceleration in recent decades?

Daniel, see here:

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2017/07/25/sea-level-rise-has-accelerated/

For now I personally defer to the recent NOAA report on sea level rise, which suggests a plausible range of 0.3 to 2.5 meters (1 to 8 feet) by 2100.  Since people naturally tend to latch onto the most exciting and dramatic figure possible, it's important to note that the 8-foot number is an "extreme upper bound".

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf

Others may have a different opinion. 
« Last Edit: August 28, 2017, 07:16:49 PM by Ned W »

Daniel B.

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #360 on: August 28, 2017, 08:02:16 PM »
What acceleration in recent decades?

Daniel, see here:

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2017/07/25/sea-level-rise-has-accelerated/

For now I personally defer to the recent NOAA report on sea level rise, which suggests a plausible range of 0.3 to 2.5 meters (1 to 8 feet) by 2100.  Since people naturally tend to latch onto the most exciting and dramatic figure possible, it's important to note that the 8-foot number is an "extreme upper bound".

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf

Others may have a different opinion.
An "extreme upper bound" I can agree with.  However, to make such claims as SLR of 6-8 m this century (as another poster to which I responded), seems rather ludicrous.  Would you not agree?  Also, I cannot agree with concatenating two separate databases to draw conclusions upon.

Ned W

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #361 on: August 28, 2017, 08:19:09 PM »
What acceleration in recent decades?

Daniel, see here:

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2017/07/25/sea-level-rise-has-accelerated/

For now I personally defer to the recent NOAA report on sea level rise, which suggests a plausible range of 0.3 to 2.5 meters (1 to 8 feet) by 2100.  Since people naturally tend to latch onto the most exciting and dramatic figure possible, it's important to note that the 8-foot number is an "extreme upper bound".

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf

Others may have a different opinion.
An "extreme upper bound" I can agree with.  However, to make such claims as SLR of 6-8 m this century (as another poster to which I responded), seems rather ludicrous.  Would you not agree?  Also, I cannot agree with concatenating two separate databases to draw conclusions upon.
I think the person to whom you were responding (P-maker) was saying ~3 m of SLR this century; the 6-8 m thing comes from adding a (temporary) storm surge a la Superstorm Sandy on top of that.

3 m is still outside NOAA's "extreme upper bound", so it seems a bit high to me. 

I'm not sure what you mean by "concatenating two separate databases".  If you mean the Tamino link, he's not concatenating databases; he does compare the satellite and in-situ sea level data sets, but doesn't try to merge them together.  He uses the in-situ data set to demonstrate acceleration in sea level (pretty much indisputable in the longer-term in-situ data set, but not yet detectable in the satellite one as far as I know).


Daniel B.

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #362 on: August 28, 2017, 09:08:18 PM »
I think the person to whom you were responding (P-maker) was saying ~3 m of SLR this century; the 6-8 m thing comes from adding a (temporary) storm surge a la Superstorm Sandy on top of that.

3 m is still outside NOAA's "extreme upper bound", so it seems a bit high to me. 

I'm not sure what you mean by "concatenating two separate databases".  If you mean the Tamino link, he's not concatenating databases; he does compare the satellite and in-situ sea level data sets, but doesn't try to merge them together.  He uses the in-situ data set to demonstrate acceleration in sea level (pretty much indisputable in the longer-term in-situ data set, but not yet detectable in the satellite one as far as I know).

Once again, we agree that there is no acceleration evident in the satellite data.  There is no acceleration evident in the tidal gauge data, unless one goes back more than 75 years.  Hence, we cannot say (with confidence) that acceleration has occurred in "recent decades." 

<edit: Daniel, when quoting someone else, try to remove the chain of previous comments, and only quote the part you want to react to, like I've just done for this comment, thanks; N.>
« Last Edit: August 29, 2017, 12:00:11 PM by Neven »

Ned W

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #363 on: August 28, 2017, 09:48:51 PM »
I hear you and I don't necessarily agree or disagree (hah!) but I have wasted too much time dealing with nonsense in a different thread to pursue this one further at this time.  Maybe another day. 

That said, I completely and 100% agree with this remark of yours from a few posts back:

Choosing only those published reports that share your own biases does not make good science.  Neither does denigrate those who hold different opinions.

We should all keep those in mind.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #364 on: September 01, 2017, 01:09:21 AM »
"Severe Repetitive Loss Properties — those that have been consistently damaged and rebuilt — account for just 1 percent of policies but as much as 30 percent of the funds paid out in claims. Many of the residential properties that carry National Flood Insurance Program policies have also been “grandfathered” in, meaning that policyholders can keep paying existing rates as their flood risk increases."

Now Comes the Uncomfortable Question: Who Gets to Rebuild After Harvey?
https://theintercept.com/2017/08/30/national-flood-insurance-program-harvey-who-gets-to-rebuild/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

bligh8

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #365 on: September 06, 2017, 04:08:45 PM »
Here’s How Climate Change Could Turn U.S. Real Estate Prices Upside Down


“With storm surge and heavy rainfall increasing and climate and sea level rise, the system is just not working,” he said. “Millions more people need flood insurance than have it and the crazy thing about Houston was only 15 percent of those who were flooded had flood insurance. The risk communication is not enough.
“You have thousands of properties in Norfolk, Annapolis, Atlantic City, Savannah, Charleston and Miami Beach where part of the property goes underwater with seawater for days at a time. When you have fish swimming in your driveway, it’s not an amenity, like a swimming pool. It means you’re driving through saltwater to get your kids to school, get to the supermarket, whatever you’re going to do.


http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-us-real-estate-prices-21720

bligh

Daniel B.

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #366 on: September 06, 2017, 08:05:54 PM »
Here’s How Climate Change Could Turn U.S. Real Estate Prices Upside Down


“With storm surge and heavy rainfall increasing and climate and sea level rise, the system is just not working,” he said. “Millions more people need flood insurance than have it and the crazy thing about Houston was only 15 percent of those who were flooded had flood insurance. The risk communication is not enough.
“You have thousands of properties in Norfolk, Annapolis, Atlantic City, Savannah, Charleston and Miami Beach where part of the property goes underwater with seawater for days at a time. When you have fish swimming in your driveway, it’s not an amenity, like a swimming pool. It means you’re driving through saltwater to get your kids to school, get to the supermarket, whatever you’re going to do.


http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-us-real-estate-prices-21720

bligh

All these events tend to do, is drive up the value of unaffected properties in the proximity.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sfl-sbuildaug20-story.html

http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2015/08/new_orleans_home_prices_up_46.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/16/realestate/hurricane-sandy-rebuilding-jersey-shore-towns.html








TerryM

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #367 on: September 06, 2017, 09:04:24 PM »

Sink or swim financially or physically. Unaffordable or underwater, unlivable either way.  :-\
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #368 on: September 18, 2017, 09:17:34 PM »
Real estate industry blocks sea-level warnings that could crimp profits on coastal properties
[Sea level rise threatening coasts] is not good news for people who market and build waterfront houses. But real estate lobbyists aren’t going down without a fight. Some are teaming up with climate change skeptics and small government advocates to block public release of sea-level rise predictions and ensure that coastal planning is not based on them.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article173114701.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #369 on: September 19, 2017, 02:14:46 PM »
Real estate industry blocks sea-level warnings that could crimp profits on coastal properties
[Sea level rise threatening coasts] is not good news for people who market and build waterfront houses. But real estate lobbyists aren’t going down without a fight. Some are teaming up with climate change skeptics and small government advocates to block public release of sea-level rise predictions and ensure that coastal planning is not based on them.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/article173114701.html
Bad news that the story has to be told.
Great news that the story is being told, locally.


Climate change "is a political agenda promoted to control every aspect of our lives", according to a plank of the 2016 Texas Republican Party.


Aprz Harvey in Houston- "Hale up. Glub Glub. Hail-pp.  We'sle build'er ratsup heer were hers alass beed. Her neffer gotch 'erself hitten afore, Ah don think?"


Wid GoAds Hailup, she woan git hit tagain.
Gim me ma money!
Lez Prey.


Terry


CalamityCountdown

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #370 on: September 19, 2017, 06:42:11 PM »
Are Caribbean Islands Uninhabitable Due to Global Warming Fueled Hurricanes?
http://calamitycountdown.blogspot.com/2017/09/are-caribbean-islands-uninhabitable-due.html

I am sort of hoping that the subject line of the above linked to blog post sparks someone to author a more thorough and authoritative article on this topic

oren

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #371 on: September 19, 2017, 07:03:49 PM »
Are Caribbean Islands Uninhabitable Due to Global Warming Fueled Hurricanes?
http://calamitycountdown.blogspot.com/2017/09/are-caribbean-islands-uninhabitable-due.html

I am sort of hoping that the subject line of the above linked to blog post sparks someone to author a more thorough and authoritative article on this topic
A few comments:
Irma and Maria are quite similar in their origin and behavior and indeed devastated Caribbean islands as Cat 5. But Harvey is a different story altogether, irrelevant to Caribbean islands, and its mention detracts from the message.
Barbuda has not been abandoned, only temporarily evacuated AFAIK. This was due to Jose threatening to hit so quickly after Irma.
The wiki page on Dominica says
In 1979, Dominica was hit directly by category 5 Hurricane David, causing widespread and extreme damage.
So 0 Cat 5 storms hitting before 2017 doesn't seem accurate, though I saw the same twitter claim elsewhere.
Finally, I do believe future Atlantic hurricanes will trend towards more "monster" cases, due to higher SSTs and more atmospheric moisture. This doesn't make Caribbean islands uninhabitable, but it does make their habitability less economical.

Reallybigbunny

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #372 on: September 30, 2017, 03:06:05 AM »
New Zealand's intensive dairy farming has resulting in insane pollution of waterways! People are believing an illusion that New Zealand is clean and green. See the attached Aljazeera 2 part documentary (This takes you to the second part if the document that contains a link to the first part of the documentary).

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/peopleandpower/2017/08/polluted-paradise-170831042123144.html


Also see Te Waikoropupu Springs web site at the address below. Some of the most pure water in the world and one of the most beautiful places in the world is becoming polluted!!! Cow's grazing beside these springs!!! Unbelievable!

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1331895920181484&set=gm.1942092929405913&type=3


Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #373 on: October 05, 2017, 06:36:41 PM »
King Tide + on-shore wind + heavy rain:  flooding in Miami, Florida today.

Some tweets from Miami's Republican mayor this morning:
- Today, Miami is flooding as if a hurricane went through it.
- In Downtown Miami. The ocean is rising above the sea walls.
- I *was* wearing rain boots. Didn't help.
- Firefighter boots are above the knee. #Kingtide water rises above them. #sealevelrise #drycleaning
- Spoiler alert. It's climate change
- The #MiamiForever bond will include pumping stations, higher sea walls, new parks and affordable housing.
https://twitter.com/tomas_regalado/status/915962563489300482


Other people's tweets:
 Last night around 8pm the right lane on 17th St. bridge to 836W was totally flooded. I worked in the area for years never saw this happen.
https://twitter.com/samsofimama/status/915975636778344448


Is it a parking lot or the ocean? #kingtide season in #miami :)
https://twitter.com/bluegreenmiami/status/915930282649374720
Video at the link.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2017, 02:29:38 AM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #374 on: October 05, 2017, 06:57:02 PM »
Are Caribbean Islands Uninhabitable Due to Global Warming Fueled Hurricanes?
http://calamitycountdown.blogspot.com/2017/09/are-caribbean-islands-uninhabitable-due.html

I am sort of hoping that the subject line of the above linked to blog post sparks someone to author a more thorough and authoritative article on this topic

Finally, I do believe future Atlantic hurricanes will trend towards more "monster" cases, due to higher SSTs and more atmospheric moisture. This doesn't make Caribbean islands uninhabitable, but it does make their habitability less economical.

In Caribbean nations where residents have few options, they will choose to rebuild and hope for the best. Where residents do have viable options and, as U.S. citizens, Puerto Ricans do, we should expect to see large numbers move to the U.S. In fact, depending on the speed at which the island's infrastructure is repaired, as many as 1 million Puerto Ricans may permanently relocate to the U.S., destroying the Puerto Rican economy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-puerto-ricans-are-coming/2017/09/27/aa49a5fa-a3b6-11e7-8cfe-d5b912fabc99_story.html?utm_term=.1ede9fcd8bbd

It kind of depends on what we think of as "uninhabitable". If 30% of the residents in Puerto Rico decide this is the case, whose opinion should carry more weight, some resident of the U.S. who is deciding whether to go out for breakfast this morning or residents of Puerto Rico who are living the nightmare. I go with the latter.

The only real question in my mind is whether we should consider these people "climate refugees".
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 07:45:27 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #375 on: October 05, 2017, 07:05:48 PM »
Here’s How Climate Change Could Turn U.S. Real Estate Prices Upside Down


...and Miami Beach where part of the property goes underwater with seawater for days at a time. When you have fish swimming in your driveway, it’s not an amenity, like a swimming pool. It means you’re driving through saltwater to get your kids to school, get to the supermarket, whatever you’re going to do.


http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-us-real-estate-prices-21720

bligh

Streets in Miami Beach flood frequently on sunny days during high tide. Since this flooding is, in part, caused by water percolating up from sewers, you are not only driving through salt water but feces laden waste water.

Sewer infrastructure in coastal cities are most vulnerable to persistent flooding and solutions are problematic if not impossible. All it will take is one serious outbreak of diseases uncommon to Americans (not really seen since the 1800's) and watch how quickly a city is perceived as "uninhabitable".

Maybe we will see weather forecasting address this in the manner that they currently measure ozone levels. Can't wait to see 'poop alerts' on my T.V.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 07:55:11 PM by Shared Humanity »

oren

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #376 on: October 06, 2017, 11:11:18 AM »
Some tweets from Miami's Republican mayor this morning:
- Today, Miami is flooding as if a hurricane went through it.
- In Downtown Miami. The ocean is rising above the sea walls.
- I *was* wearing rain boots. Didn't help.
- Firefighter boots are above the knee. #Kingtide water rises above them. #sealevelrise #drycleaning
- Spoiler alert. It's climate change
- The #MiamiForever bond will include pumping stations, higher sea walls, new parks and affordable housing.
The mayor is surprisingly sensible (perhaps not surprising actually, as in Miami it's hard to avoid noticing SLR), but the name of the bond is funny in a sad sort of way. Some decades from here, many won't laugh at the joke.

Bernard

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #377 on: October 06, 2017, 12:08:20 PM »
Meanwhile, the southeastern France (particularly Provence) is suffering the worst drought since 60 years, aggraved by record heat this summer. Soil moisture is at a record low, and the weather forecast is dry for the two next weeks. Today the "mistral" northerly wind will blow hard, with fears of new wildfires. Even in the northern part of the region, in mountains where I'm living, the level of streams is frightening. I have articles in French only so far, sorry.
http://france3-regions.francetvinfo.fr/provence-alpes-cote-d-azur/alpes-maritimes/secheresse-toujours-persistante-paca-meteo-france-1340717.html

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #378 on: October 06, 2017, 01:31:04 PM »
Some tweets from Miami's Republican mayor this morning:
- Today, Miami is flooding as if a hurricane went through it.
- In Downtown Miami. The ocean is rising above the sea walls.
- I *was* wearing rain boots. Didn't help.
- Firefighter boots are above the knee. #Kingtide water rises above them. #sealevelrise #drycleaning
- Spoiler alert. It's climate change
- The #MiamiForever bond will include pumping stations, higher sea walls, new parks and affordable housing.
The mayor is surprisingly sensible (perhaps not surprising actually, as in Miami it's hard to avoid noticing SLR), but the name of the bond is funny in a sad sort of way. Some decades from here, many won't laugh at the joke.

Yes.  The "MiamiForever" name was probably necessary to get politicians to think a little further out in time than the next election.  You'll recall that Florida is the state where councilmen were forbidden to utter the words "climate change." ::)
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #379 on: October 06, 2017, 04:42:31 PM »
I noticed the bond will include 'affordable housing'. Always best to locate the poor in the path of rising seas.

sidd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #380 on: October 12, 2017, 11:48:05 PM »
BBC piece on the Death of the Nile:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/death_of_the_nile

sidd

oren

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #381 on: October 13, 2017, 12:12:50 PM »
BBC piece on the Death of ghe Nile:
Excellent article, thanks sidd. While the river is deteriorating, the population of the basin grows quickly. This will result in some major catastrophe for millions or even 10s of millions at some point, with the resulting death toll, human suffering and waves of refugees.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #382 on: October 16, 2017, 08:32:38 PM »
Miami, Florida.

We’ll call this the “halftime show”. #KingTides not quite as high as 2 weeks ago, and a warmup to the king of King Tides in November.
    https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/919986632836698113

City of Miami: Starting tomorrow 10/17 - 10/21, #KingTides will be affecting #Miami.  Please take necessary steps to mitigate the effects of tidal flooding
     https://twitter.com/CityofMiami/status/919940510940303360
Images below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #383 on: October 22, 2017, 03:18:27 AM »
The Boomtown That Shouldn’t Exist
Cape Coral, Florida, was built on total lies. One big storm could wipe it off the map. Oh, and it’s also the fastest-growing city in the United States.
As Cape Coral may be the best place to gauge the future of the dream—and to see whether Florida has any hope of overcoming its zany developmental, political and environmental history—because Cape Coral is the ultimate microcosm of Florida. It’s literally a peninsula jutting off the peninsula, the least natural, worst-planned, craziest-growing piece of an unnatural, badly planned, crazy-growing state. Man has sculpted it into an almost comically artificial landscape, with a Seven Islands section featuring seven perfectly rectangular islands and an Eight Lakes neighborhood featuring eight perfectly square lakes. And while much of Florida now yo-yos between routine droughts and routine floods, Cape Coral’s fluctuations are particularly wild. This spring, the city faced a water shortage so dire that its fire department feared it couldn’t rely on its hydrants, yet this summer, the city endured a record-breaking flood. And that “50-year rain event” came two weeks before Irma, which was also supposedly a 50-year event.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/10/20/fastest-growing-city-america-florida-cape-coral-215724
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Reallybigbunny

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #384 on: October 22, 2017, 06:11:12 AM »
That was a great read. I didn't know about Cape Coral. Thanks Sigmetnow!

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #385 on: October 23, 2017, 02:05:23 AM »
Phoenix, Arizona

Phoenix's heat is rising — and so is the danger
During the hottest week of the year in America's hottest big city, 10 people died of heat-related causes.

Another nine people died the following week in metro Phoenix, as June gave way to July, and authorities suspect heat may have contributed to an additional 27 deaths over those two weeks.

The average temperature in Phoenix in that period was 113 degrees, peaking at 119 on June 20, the day of the summer solstice. On four days, the temperature never dropped below 90 degrees, even in the dead of night.

By the first day of fall, Arizona's notorious heat had contributed to more than 60 deaths in Maricopa County and was suspected in 119 more since the start of 2017. ...
http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-environment/2017/10/18/deadly-heat-phoenix-getting-hotter-so-danger/694283001/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #386 on: October 23, 2017, 02:09:38 AM »
That was a great read. I didn't know about Cape Coral. Thanks Sigmetnow!

Cape Coral was one of the first places ordered to evacuate for Hurricane Irma.  Now we know why. :o
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #387 on: October 28, 2017, 09:30:25 PM »
Why Isn’t the Bond Market More Worried About Climate Change?
  Coastal towns destroyed by Sandy still have perfect credit scores. Why?
... Miami currently has a double-A bond rating, meaning that the city can borrow money at low rates. Amidst the dire predictions and the full moon floods, that rating is a bulwark. It signifies that the financial industry doesn’t think sea level rise and storm risk will prevent Miami from paying off its debts. In December, a report issued by President Obama’s budget office outlined a potential virtuous cycle: Borrow money to build seawalls and the like while your credit is good, and your credit will still be good when you need to borrow in the future.

The alternative: Flood-prone jurisdictions go into the financial tailspin we recognize from cities like Detroit, unable to borrow enough to protect the assets whose declining value makes it harder to borrow. ...
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2017/10/the_bond_industry_isn_t_worried_about_climate_change.html
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #388 on: October 28, 2017, 10:00:56 PM »
Not sure but I think bonds would not be the 1st shoe to fall. As long as property values hold up, banks write mortgages and new construction continues, city tax revenues will look good. When consumers start shying away from buying properties, that'll change.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #389 on: October 29, 2017, 01:25:47 AM »
Not sure but I think bonds would not be the 1st shoe to fall. As long as property values hold up, banks write mortgages and new construction continues, city tax revenues will look good. When consumers start shying away from buying properties, that'll change.

30-year bonds. 30-year mortgages. How long until the financial industry comes to the conclusion that, "There's a good chance this seaside residence won't survive 30 years"?
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Shared Humanity

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« Reply #390 on: October 29, 2017, 02:12:58 AM »
Not sure but I think bonds would not be the 1st shoe to fall. As long as property values hold up, banks write mortgages and new construction continues, city tax revenues will look good. When consumers start shying away from buying properties, that'll change.

30-year bonds. 30-year mortgages. How long until the financial industry comes to the conclusion that, "There's a good chance this seaside residence won't survive 30 years"?

I think soon but it will be a creeping kind of realization. By 2030 or 2040 in some places.

pileus

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #391 on: October 29, 2017, 02:33:29 AM »
Not sure but I think bonds would not be the 1st shoe to fall. As long as property values hold up, banks write mortgages and new construction continues, city tax revenues will look good. When consumers start shying away from buying properties, that'll change.

30-year bonds. 30-year mortgages. How long until the financial industry comes to the conclusion that, "There's a good chance this seaside residence won't survive 30 years"?

I think soon but it will be a creeping kind of realization. By 2030 or 2040 in some places.

It's full speed ahead in Florida at waters' edge.  Irma did nothing to slow the momentum.  Even someone who should know better, Bill Gates, is one of the primary funders of Tampa's Water Street (aptly named, but not for the reason they think) project, a massive business and real estate development in the most vulnerable city in Florida behind Miami.  Irma tracks 50 miles to the west and it might have shifted the conversation, but until there is a Maria scale disaster on the mainland nothing is going to stop the building boom.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #392 on: October 29, 2017, 07:09:23 PM »
“The Union of Concerned Scientists did its own analysis and determined that with sea level rise of just 1.4 feet, the base's low-lying areas would flood about 280 times each year, spending 10 percent of the time underwater.”

Rising Seas Are Flooding Virginia's Naval Base, and There Is No Plan to Fix It
The giant naval base at Norfolk is under threat by rising waters and sinking land, but little is being done to hold back the tides.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/10252017/military-norfolk-naval-base-flooding-climate-change-sea-level-global-warming-virginia
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #393 on: October 29, 2017, 07:16:54 PM »
Norfolk is the largest U.S. naval base.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #394 on: October 29, 2017, 07:42:17 PM »
Norfolk is the largest U.S. naval base.

Also, the largest in the world.
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Shared Humanity

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« Reply #395 on: October 29, 2017, 07:46:38 PM »
It is not just the base at risk. Norfolk is situated in the largest and most vulnerable tidewater region in the U.S. It is also the region of the east coast that is expected to have the highest sea level rise as a result of being near the Gulf Stream which piles water upon the shore line. The Hampton Roads Metropolitan Statistical Area of which Norfolk is a part (officially known as the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC MSA) is the 37th largest in the United States, with an estimated population of 1,716,624 in 2014. All of this area is threatened by sea level rise. The city has a total area of 96 square miles (250 km2), of which 54 square miles (140 km2) is land and 42 square miles (110 km2) (43.9%) is water.

Norfolk is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels. Some areas already flood regularly at high tide, and the city commissioned a study in 2012 to investigate how to address the issue in the future. It reported the cost of dealing with a sea-level rise of one foot would be around $1,000,000,000. Since then, scientists at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science in 2013 have estimated that if current trends hold, the sea in Norfolk will rise by 5 and 1/2 feet or more by the end of this century.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norfolk,_Virginia

Tides run between 3 and 4 feet in Norfolk and with a 5 feet rise in sea level, sea levels would be 8 feet higher at high tide by the end of the century.

The 1st image is of coastal tidewater regions.

The 2nd image is a tide forecast.

The 3rd image is the 8 foot flood map.

I would have to imagine that other cities in the region have similar issues they are facing.

That last image would suggest the city will be unlivable by the end of the century.

« Last Edit: October 29, 2017, 08:43:37 PM by Shared Humanity »

Daniel B.

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« Reply #396 on: October 30, 2017, 07:54:43 PM »
However, based on current rates, it will take two centuries to reach that level.  I suspect the ships (and probably naval yards) might be rather antiquated by then.

Shared Humanity

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« Reply #397 on: October 30, 2017, 08:08:05 PM »
However, based on current rates, it will take two centuries to reach that level.  I suspect the ships (and probably naval yards) might be rather antiquated by then.

Virginia Tech disagrees. We will see 8 feet at high tide by 2100 and we are not talking the naval base. Much of Norfolk will be flooded routinely at high tide.

TerryM

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #398 on: October 30, 2017, 09:06:29 PM »
However, based on current rates, it will take two centuries to reach that level.  I suspect the ships (and probably naval yards) might be rather antiquated by then.

Virginia Tech disagrees. We will see 8 feet at high tide by 2100 and we are not talking the naval base. Much of Norfolk will be flooded routinely at high tide.
If 8 ft. high tides are forecast for 2100, how much earlier before high tide + storm surge tops the 8 ft. mark?
Terry


Daniel B.

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #399 on: October 31, 2017, 02:57:36 PM »
However, based on current rates, it will take two centuries to reach that level.  I suspect the ships (and probably naval yards) might be rather antiquated by then.

Virginia Tech disagrees. We will see 8 feet at high tide by 2100 and we are not talking the naval base. Much of Norfolk will be flooded routinely at high tide.

Other scientists disagree with Virginia Tech.  The following details how the land around Norfolk is subsiding by about 3 mm/yr due mostly to ground water extraction. 

https://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=78612&