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sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2350 on: May 23, 2018, 01:06:55 AM »
Platts has an article about natgas peakers facing competion from batteries.

"The US has 120 GW of operating gas peaker capacity and 20 GW of peaker capacity planned by 2017"

"The median capacity factor of the US' 120 GW of gas peaking capacity was 3% and the median hours of run time per start was 5.3 in 2017"

"on a $/MWh levalized cost of energy basis, eight-hour lithium-ion battery storage becomes competitive with peaking gas combustion turbines around 2022 and energy storage economics continuously improve to 2027, while gas peaker economics worsen. As a result, 32% of new US gas peaker capacity is at risk from four-hour storage by 2027"

" "We could replace every gas peaker in the US with batteries right now if we wanted to, but it probably wouldn't make economic sense everywhere," said Abe Silverman, vice president for the regulatory affairs group and deputy general counsel at power producer NRG Energy."

https://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/newyork/battery-energy-storage-on-verge-of-competing-27984707

sidd

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2351 on: May 23, 2018, 01:36:44 AM »
UBS warns there could be an oil price spike to $100 that triggers a US recession
• Oil prices have risen above a "sweet spot" between $50 and $70 a barrel that encourages global growth, according to Swiss investment bank UBS.
• If oil prices rise another $20 to $100 a barrel, UBS said it would dent global growth and boost send and index of consumer prices higher.
• UBS said prices could keep rallying for several reasons, putting the U.S. economy at risk of entering a recession.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/22/oil-prices-at-100-could-trim-global-growth-trigger-us-recession-ubs.html
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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2352 on: May 23, 2018, 09:21:22 AM »
Not a problem Sig, we've still got $20.91 to go before we reach that $100 mark. - besides one of our members told us he was sure that we'd see $40/Bbl before we saw $80/Bbl. ::)


And he said it in bolded caps!

Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2353 on: May 23, 2018, 09:45:12 AM »
Not a problem Sig, we've still got $20.91 to go before we reach that $100 mark. - besides one of our members told us he was sure that we'd see $40/Bbl before we saw $80/Bbl. ::)


And he said it in bolded caps!

Terry

I hope that wasn't me....

Some high oil prices and resulting high fuel prices that lingered for awhile would be a boon to EVs.

We really need some sub $30k options. 

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2354 on: May 23, 2018, 10:10:44 AM »
I hope that wasn't me....


Not unless you have huge flat feet - and quack loudly ;)


High fuel prices are very good news for renewables as well as upping the efficiency of everything. I do hope we don't end up with a severe recession, Those least able to withstand a downturn are those who will be hurt most severely.
A downswing before the election will be extremely positive for the Dems in the midterms. If we can just get some true progressives into power, we might make some real headway.


As a side note the Liberals are in real trouble hear in Ontario, I'm hoping the economy can be propped up until after the June election. The clown the Conservative Party is running is the brother of the buffoon that was the Mayor of Toronto a few years back. He makes Trump look like a wise Statesman. :-\
Terry
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numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2355 on: May 23, 2018, 03:33:02 PM »
Oil is shooting up because of the idiot Iran sanctions.

I don’t have a good model of whether high or low prices is better.

In favor of low prices: The switch to EVs is constrained more by supply of EVs than by demand for EVs. So it’s not much dependent on oil prices.

In favor of high prices: people will drive less, fly less, and buy more efficient cars and aircraft. People will switch to heat pumps faster. With luck, manufacturers will switch to producing EVs a bit faster. And the economy will shrink — particularly oil-intensive parts (I don’t like shrinking economy but it does reduce CO2).

What I fear from high prices is that it makes it look financially viable to build new oil infrastructure. Even if the price later crashes and the banks lose their money, the infrastructure will be there to support more overall extraction of oil. Low oil prices I suspect mean more oil stays in the ground.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2356 on: May 23, 2018, 04:03:46 PM »
The faster we switch to electricity powered transportation the more oil stays in the ground.  We'll reach a point at which pumps will be removed from productive wells because the scrap metal will have value while the oil won't.


Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2357 on: May 23, 2018, 04:13:39 PM »
Oil prices have already peaked at $147.  This is a LONG TERM TREND DOWN that could take another 5 years or more to play out. 

Quote
What I fear from high prices is that it makes it look financially viable to build new oil infrastructure. Even if the price later crashes and the banks lose their money, the infrastructure will be there to support more overall extraction of oil. Low oil prices I suspect mean more oil stays in the ground.

That is already happening.  There is going to be "stranded infrastructure."  Those with the LEAST EXPENSIVE OIL will win (....well, by winning I mean SURVIVE). That is a LONG TERM CALL of > 10 years.  But suffice it to say, that there will be a LOT of losers in the "oil patch" in the coming 5 - 10 years.

 
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Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2358 on: May 24, 2018, 01:39:54 PM »
GE made some REALLY dumb moves BEFORE Jack Welch left the helm as CEO (Yes.... Jack was fortunate to have the "wind at his back" of falling interest rates for 20 years that carried GE to extreme heights BEFORE diving).

Quote
Shares of General Electric Co. plunged in very active trade Wednesday, putting them on track for the biggest selloff nine years, with losses accelerating after Chief Executive John Flannery started talking at an industry conference.

Seems like everyone is moving AWAY from natural gas plants towards this "solar thing".  Imagine that... ;)

His successor, Jeff Immelt..... followed in Jack's footsteps by making some really dumb moves as well.  Like selling their solar unit to First Solar.  And then buying Baker Hughes in the oil and gas industry.  And then going "all in" on making turbines for natural gas electric facilities.

https://www.marketwatch.com/Story/ges-stock-plunges-after-ceo-john-flannery-starts-talking-2018-05-23?&siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2359 on: May 24, 2018, 03:16:04 PM »
I just posted a longread on GE in the Renewables thread:  https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,256.msg155651.html#msg155651
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2360 on: May 24, 2018, 05:12:22 PM »
Quote
Seems like everyone is moving AWAY from natural gas plants towards this "solar thing".

Utilities need only "so much" NG capacity.  Enough to pick up the slack when wind and solar flag.  Once they've got that capacity in place it makes sense to turn efforts into bringing in more wind and solar in order to cut fuel costs.

sidd

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2361 on: May 25, 2018, 02:07:07 AM »

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2362 on: May 25, 2018, 03:49:53 AM »
When Canada sends its oil, it doesn’t send it’s best oils. Some of them are... toxic... explosive... carbon dense. And I’m sure some of them burn all right.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2363 on: May 25, 2018, 04:36:39 AM »
Advocates of the expanded Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline gain a rare victory, but the pipeline is still unlikely to be built.
The question before the British Columbia courts was "Did [the province] follow the law? Did it act with procedural fairness? Did it act reasonably and in compliance with its own statutory processes?" The judge said that it did, that the province, under the previous government appropriately issued and environmental certificate to the project.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/squamish-nation-taking-fight-against-kinder-morgan-to-court-1.4676619

Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2364 on: May 25, 2018, 04:36:55 PM »
Canada ramps up heavy oil export to USA while Venezuela share is shrunk

http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/death-spiral-canadian-oil-flows-into-u-s-gulf-coast-market-as-venezuela-falls-apart

sidd

Tar Sands oil is a misnomer. It is not oil, actually more like tar. In order to ship it by rail or pipeline, VOC's must be added to make it less viscous. This also makes it highly explosive. When it finally arrives to the refiner, these VOC's are extracted during the refining process and then shipped back to the extraction company to be reused. It is also very dirty and highly corrosive. One output is pet coke, a rocky, filthy byproduct that is currently shipped overseas to be burned as fuel because U.S. EPA laws prohibit its use. The corrosive material also damages the refineries with pipes and valves that should last decades being destroyed in just a few years, Refinery maintenance costs climb rapidly.

You can find piles of this highly contaminated pet coke anywhere it is refined and transported. Here is a pile along the Detroit River as viewed from Windsor, Canada.

The 2nd photo is an aerial view of an Alberta tar sands mine.

May the Goddess forgive us.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2018, 04:48:00 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2365 on: May 25, 2018, 07:04:12 PM »
A depressing read (short at least) on Alberta Tar Sands extraction.

https://www.greenpeace.org/canada/Global/canada/report/2010/4/Overview_FS_Footnote_rev_4.pdf

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2366 on: May 25, 2018, 08:10:44 PM »
Nitpicking Alert

The EIA lists petroleum coke as one source of US electricity.  A very small source, 0.2% in 2017. 8,508 MWh.

I wonder if that is being burned in refineries.  Most/all? do create some of their own electricity onsite.  Perhaps it's being used as a heat source?

TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2367 on: May 26, 2018, 10:20:17 AM »
The below charts the US for 2017. The link provides the same for each year since 2010.





https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/commodities/energy
Terry

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2368 on: May 26, 2018, 10:49:31 AM »
The below charts the US for 2017. The link provides the same for each year since 2010.

https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/commodities/energy
Terry

Oh dear. Proof positive it's still possible that something new can be learned every day. I know of Livermore but in all my years looking at climate issues I had never seen that chart.

Even more I had never heard the term "rejected energy" being used. I looked at the bottom chart info nothing there and did a site search also nothing. My first thought was maybe they mean wasted energy?  Surely it couldn't be that it is too high, off the charts. So I plugged it into a net search and quickly found this from August 26th, 2013
https://cleantechnica.com/2013/08/26/us-wastes-61-86-of-its-energy/

Why wasn't I told? Obviously I had not spent enough time of cleantechnica  :)

Thank you Terry. I am stunned.  A copy of that chart is needed in the renewable energy thread me thinks. Has anyone thought of telling the IPCC and asking why they haven't included charts like that for key example nations and the global situation as a whole? Oh dear me!

numerobis

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2369 on: May 26, 2018, 05:16:09 PM »
Nitpicking Alert

The EIA lists petroleum coke as one source of US electricity.  A very small source, 0.2% in 2017. 8,508 MWh.

I wonder if that is being burned in refineries.  Most/all? do create some of their own electricity onsite.  Perhaps it's being used as a heat source?

Petcoke is used a lot like coal. All refining makes some, but heavier crudes (culminating in bitumen) make more.

It’s definitely not banned in the US. It’s also a pretty secondary issue overall, the awful cherry on the awful sundae that is our petroleum industry.

mitch

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2370 on: May 26, 2018, 06:38:31 PM »
On the LLNL charts--I expect that all hydro, wind, and solar have little rejected energy since they are reported as electricity generated. However, coal and gas have a maximum efficiency of about 40% because of thermodynamics of the steam cycle.  I am not certain how nuclear is counted.

Rejected energy is an important factor, because 1 unit of efficient electrical generation can replace 2.5 units of fossil fuel input. If you find more out on how the rejected energy is determined it would be good to know. 

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2371 on: May 26, 2018, 07:26:51 PM »
The below charts the US for 2017. The link provides the same for each year since 2010.





https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/commodities/energy
Terry

The rejected energy is mostly waste heat.  And it's mostly energy that we do not have to replace as we move from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

"Typical thermal efficiency for utility-scale electrical generators is around 33% for coal and oil-fired plants, and 56 – 60% (LEV) for combined-cycle gas-fired plants."

Coal plants turn the energy in a lump of coal into electricity (33%) and waste heat (67%).  We will not need to replace the 67%.

ICEVs convert about 20% of the energy in their fuel to kinetic energy, 80% is lost as unused heat.  Engines and exhaust pipes get very hot.  EVs lose about 10% of the energy in batteries, convert about 90% to kinetic energy.

We'll still lose some of the energy in renewable electricity, but only a small amount.  EVs lose about 10% to friction.  Transmission and distribution lose about 5% (US).

When you hear someone (usually a nuclear advocate) talking about all the primary energy we have to replace wave them off.  We need to replace only the energy we actually use (Energy Services) plus a small amount of 'rejected' energy.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2372 on: May 26, 2018, 07:34:06 PM »
I read somewhere after a thorough search that about 7% of the rejected energy is transmission loss. Sorry don't have a link so feel free to ignore what I just said.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2373 on: May 26, 2018, 07:34:19 PM »
Quote
Has anyone thought of telling the IPCC and asking why they haven't included charts like that for key example nations and the global situation as a whole?

I've seen some for the UK.  Here's a 2014.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/five-charts-show-the-historic-shifts-in-uk-energy-last-year

Bob Wallace

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2374 on: May 26, 2018, 07:37:15 PM »
I read somewhere after a thorough search that about 7% of the rejected energy is transmission loss. Sorry don't have a link so feel free to ignore what I just said.

Old data.  Most recent I've seen from the EIA is 5%, average for 2012 through 2016.

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=105&t=3

More than 50% is on the distribution side.  As grids are modernized waste is dropping.

Buddy

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2375 on: May 26, 2018, 08:11:48 PM »
FYI ..... 15 new oil wells in the US for the past week according to Baker Hughes weekly report.  Eleven of those were in the Permian Basin.  Greed kills ....
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gerontocrat

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2376 on: May 26, 2018, 08:14:40 PM »
EVs will also reduce the waste percent

https://www.quora.com/How-energy-efficient-are-electric-motors-compared-to-combustion-engines

Quote
Electric motors run on on the principle of electromagnetism, and are driven by either triple phase AC current (in case of AC motors) or batteries (in case of DC motors) and the only source of inefficiencies are friction and transmission loses which may be minor, while combustion engines are inherently handicapped with a lower than 100 percent theoretical limit on efficiency (Carnot efficiency).

The result is that electric motors are 85 percent to 90 percent efficient, and combustion engines are lucky if they have thermal efficiencies over 40 percent.

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TerryM

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2377 on: May 26, 2018, 08:48:37 PM »
EVs will also reduce the waste percent

https://www.quora.com/How-energy-efficient-are-electric-motors-compared-to-combustion-engines

Quote
Electric motors run on on the principle of electromagnetism, and are driven by either triple phase AC current (in case of AC motors) or batteries (in case of DC motors) and the only source of inefficiencies are friction and transmission loses which may be minor, while combustion engines are inherently handicapped with a lower than 100 percent theoretical limit on efficiency (Carnot efficiency).

The result is that electric motors are 85 percent to 90 percent efficient, and combustion engines are lucky if they have thermal efficiencies over 40 percent.


We could save a fortune in start capacitors, run capacitors, and the relays to cut them in and out if this were so, the down side would be redoing the grid. 8)
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Oil and Gas Issues
« Reply #2378 on: May 26, 2018, 09:10:42 PM »
New Orleans council approves investigation into 'every single aspect' of Entergy's use of paid support for power plant
Quote
The New Orleans City Council signed off Thursday on an investigation into the use of paid actors to support a plan drawn up by Entergy for a new power plant in New Orleans East.

The council voted unanimously to release a request for proposals for a third-party consultant to look into the matter, two weeks after Entergy itself acknowledged that one of its subcontractors paid people to speak on behalf of the project at various council meetings.

The council also plans to look into whether Entergy has hired the two contractors involved in the scandal during previous debates over energy policy. 

Entergy will bear the cost of the investigation and will not be allowed to pass on that cost to ratepayers.
http://www.theadvocate.com/new_orleans/news/article_afce7986-5eca-11e8-803d-27fe66f0a73c.html


Earlier article, including statements from actors who took part in the demonstrations, is here:  https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,861.msg153059.html#msg153059
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