Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....  (Read 329377 times)

rboyd

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 565
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1650 on: March 17, 2017, 07:06:49 PM »
A lot of the ICE efficiency gains went into making the cars bigger, if they had kept the same size the fuel efficiency would be way beyond 29mpg in the US, which has one of the worst efficiency numbers in the world. Compare the same make of car decade by decade and you see it grow - even the Japanese imports.

Shame that it looks like Trump will be changing the much stricter CAFE standards setup by Obama due to car company complaints (target of average fuel efficiency of 54.5mpg by 2025). Car companies tend to complain about any regulation then magically are able to meet it when forced to; seatbelts are a great example.

rboyd

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 565
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1651 on: March 17, 2017, 07:26:08 PM »
Sigmetnow - great report (http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/11/Cleaner-Cars-from-Cradle-to-Grave-full-report.pdf), took me a while to read it all.

One problem with the report is that it does not take into account fugitive methane emissions from fracked natural gas production and distribution. Once those are taken into account (at levels that independent researchers have found) natural gas looks as bad as coal, and of course Trump is rolling back any regulations meant to reduce leakages. Bill McKibben summarized this very well:

https://www.thenation.com/article/global-warming-terrifying-new-chemistry/

Fracked natural gas powered cars are just as bad as coal powered ones - 29mpg. We need much more renewables and nuclear for a low carbon future, and a lot more trains, buses, motorcycles, bicycles and walking.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1652 on: March 18, 2017, 06:10:48 PM »
...
Fracked natural gas powered cars are just as bad as coal powered ones - 29mpg. We need much more renewables and nuclear for a low carbon future, and a lot more trains, buses, motorcycles, bicycles and walking.

And hyperloops!   ;)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1653 on: March 21, 2017, 11:53:02 PM »
Citroën unveils an all-electric version of its Berlingo compact van
• Real-world range is expected to be around 120 km (75 miles).
It’s not a lot, but it could be enough for some applications or to commute in cities.
• Citroën has yet to announce the price of the new all-electric vehicle, but they confirmed that they plan to start production at their Vigo production site as soon as May.
https://electrek.co/2017/03/21/citroen-all-electric-berlingo-van/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1654 on: March 25, 2017, 03:42:52 PM »
California Air Resources Board votes to keep emissions requirements, vowing to protect the environment even if the EPA won’t
The California Air Resources Board (CARB) voted unanimously to continue implementing higher emissions standards in their meeting on Friday.  This sets California’s clean-air agency up for a fight against the federal Environmental Protection Agency, which recently signaled that they aren’t too interested in doing their job of actually protecting the environment.

The emissions rules require automakers to average 54.5mpg (by the less stringent CAFE standard) over all new vehicles by 2025.

California has long had a special waiver through the Clean Air Act which allows the state to set stricter standards than the federal government when it comes to auto emissions.  CARB has used that waiver to implement stricter emissions standards, require different gasoline mixes unique to California, and to enforce a Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate for automakers, requiring them to sell a certain percentage of ZEVs if they want to continue doing business in California.

And California’s actions have been extremely successful.  Anyone who lived near Los Angeles in the 60s and 70s will remember “smog days” where people were encouraged not to go outside because the air was dangerous to breathe, and will remember that the mountains which surround the city were obscured from sight by thick smog on all but the clearest of days.  But because of California’s strict emissions regulations, vehicle-related pollution in the Los Angeles basin has dropped by a whopping 98 percent since the 60s, even though LA now uses almost three times as much gasoline as it did then. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/03/25/california-air-resources-board-votes-to-keep-emissions-requirements-vowing-to-protect-the-environment-even-if-the-epa-wont/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1655 on: March 26, 2017, 12:17:03 AM »
Oslo is one of 12 cities which plans to phase out cars in the near future.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/02/these-major-cities-are-starting-to-go-car-free
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1656 on: March 28, 2017, 12:54:50 AM »
New York’s new $2,000 EV incentive is aimed at Tesla Model 3, Chevy Bolt EV, and other long range affordable EVs
The state of New York has finally released all the details of its new electric vehicle incentive plan, which has been formally announced earlier this month and will start officially on April 1st.

They decided to go with tranches that take into account both range and price. Only a few vehicles, like the Tesla Model 3 and the Chevy Bolt EV, will take advantage of the full $2,000 incentive.

The requirements to get the full $2,000 are a range of over 120 miles and a MSRP of less than $60,000.
...
https://electrek.co/2017/03/27/new-york-ev-incentive-tesla-model-3-chevy-bolt-ev/

Article has a list of cars that can get the incentive.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1657 on: March 29, 2017, 05:38:37 PM »
Daimler announces acceleration of electric car plans by 3 years, will spend $11 billion on 10 models by 2022
We reported just last week that Daimler was among the most ambitious legacy automakers when it comes to the electrification of their vehicle lineup with plans for 10 new all-electric models and 15 to 25% of all their production being electric by 2025.

At Daimler’s Annual Shareholder‘s Meeting in Berlin today, the company announced an acceleration of those plans. They are now aiming to get those new electric vehicles in production by 2022 – 3 years sooner than previously announced.

The announcement comes as Daimler confirmed that it failed to reduce average fleet emissions in Europe for the first time since 2007. Reuters reports:

“Last year the average fuel emissions remained at 123 grams for Mercedes-Benz Cars, the same level as in 2015. It is the first time since 2007 that it has failed to cut average pollution levels despite the introduction of more fuel efficient engines throughout its range.”

They are falling behind their goal for 100 grams by 2020, which would explain the acceleration of their electric vehicles plans.
...
They didn’t explain how it will change the rollout of their upcoming electric vehicles, but we expect an acceleration of virtually all new models – except maybe the first one: the Mercedes EQ all-electric SUV, which is already expected as soon as next year.
...
https://electrek.co/2017/03/29/daimler-accelerate-electric-car-plan-2022/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1658 on: April 03, 2017, 03:30:40 AM »
Watch a ride in an Autonomous Nissan LEAF.  The system is slated for production in 2020.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?utm_campaign=buffer&v=cfRqNAhAe6c&utm_content=buffer47a47
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1659 on: April 04, 2017, 02:36:10 AM »
Europe’s Divorce From Diesel Is About to Get Messy
...
Demand for diesel cars is likely to plunge to some 30 percent of the region’s total auto sales by 2020 from about half currently, hampering manufacturers’ profit growth while speeding up a push to develop battery-powered models, analysts including Jose Asumendi at JPMorgan Chase & Co. said Monday in a report.

German carmakers will probably experience an average 5 percent earnings reduction as they promote less profitable hybrid models to meet European Union emissions regulations and as prices drop for used diesel vehicles coming off lease, the analysts said. Mercedes-Benz parent Daimler AG and Volkswagen AG’s Audi division, along with French rival PSA Group, are in the best position to win customers as they bring out longer-range electric vehicles starting next year.
...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-03/europe-s-diesel-decay-set-to-accelerate-in-vw-cheating-fallout
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

crandles

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1793
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1660 on: April 04, 2017, 11:51:03 AM »
Tesla's market value overtakes Ford
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39485200

At the close of trading Tesla had a market value of $49bn (£38bn), compared with Ford's value of $46bn.
...
While Tesla's sales are growing fast they are still a fraction of Ford's, which sold almost 6.7 million vehicles in 2016.
Tesla delivered 76,000 electric cars last year.

Just over 1% of vehicle deliveries but more valuable! That ought to send a clear message on the way things are going.


DrTskoul

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 804
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1661 on: April 04, 2017, 12:37:47 PM »
Twitter was also valued around $40 billion in 2013... We'll see...

Right now it's value is from investors prospecting future profits and value growth...
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1662 on: April 04, 2017, 04:39:08 PM »
Tesla's market value overtakes Ford
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39485200

At the close of trading Tesla had a market value of $49bn (£38bn), compared with Ford's value of $46bn.
...
While Tesla's sales are growing fast they are still a fraction of Ford's, which sold almost 6.7 million vehicles in 2016.
Tesla delivered 76,000 electric cars last year.

Just over 1% of vehicle deliveries but more valuable! That ought to send a clear message on the way things are going.

Don't forget, Tesla's value also includes solar energy (panels, solar roofs) and battery storage (residential and utility).  Elon Musk has said he expects these products to eventually make up more of the company than EVs.   :)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1663 on: April 04, 2017, 11:01:32 PM »
A surprisingly sane examination from the CNBC business site:

It may sound crazy, but loosening U.S. emission standards could actually hurt the auto industry
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/04/lowering-emission-standards-will-hurt-the-auto-industry-commentary.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1664 on: April 04, 2017, 11:13:22 PM »
Jaw, meet floor!

Trump economic advisor Gary Cohn touts Elon Musk's infrastructure solution: Tunnels, and the Hyperloop.  Also, batteries.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/04/trump-adviser-cohn-touts-elon-musks-infrastructure-solution-tunnels.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1665 on: April 05, 2017, 01:18:25 AM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

DrTskoul

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 804
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1666 on: April 05, 2017, 01:29:47 AM »
When will it be unacceptable to drive a car with a tailpipe? Poll results
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1109716_when-will-it-be-unacceptable-to-drive-a-car-with-a-tailpipe-poll-results

When one can buy a used electric car for $5K
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1667 on: April 05, 2017, 01:32:02 AM »
Answering some of the questions on the Chevy Bolt's fast-charging capabilities.

• The maximum charging rate he saw was 46 kw on a 125-amp charger;
• The Bolt EV battery is quite sensitive to internal temperature, and needs to be at 65 to 70 degrees F to charge at the highest rate;
• Fast-charging starts to taper off at 50 percent capacity, and tapers again at 70 percent; and
• Chevy's advertised "90 miles in 30 minutes" will only likely occur if the battery starts between 0 and 50 percent capacity.
...
The EVgo deployed network is all 50-kw, and if a fully operational (i.e. not mechanically impaired) charger delivers a slower rate than that, it’s because the car is ‘asking’ for less (either because of the ambient temperature, or because of the car’s battery state of charge).

We’ve seen this complaint on Chevy Bolt forums and threads. It seems from those that [Chevrolet has] got the car set to throttle down on charge rate a lot sooner in the charge curve than most people expected them to.

GM was pretty careful to advertise their charge rate as an “up to” and “under ideal conditions” thing, so it’s a bit of selective reading [to create] rosy expectations in the customers as well.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1109714_more-details-on-fast-charging-rate-in-2017-chevy-bolt-ev-electric-car
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1668 on: April 06, 2017, 08:02:15 PM »
Ford Motor Company said it would launch a plug-in hybrid car in China in 2018 and a fully electric sport-utility vehicle in the next five years, as it works toward electrifying most of its lineup in the world's biggest auto market by 2025.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ford-motor-china-electric-idUSKBN1780HK
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1669 on: April 07, 2017, 12:24:26 AM »
Wouldn't "convenience stores" be more likely to offer EV charging, compared to gas stations owned by oil companies?

Sunoco Is Getting Out of the Taco Business
Would you buy a taco from an energy company?

After years of building networks of gas stations that sell drinks, snacks and other impulse buys, U.S. energy companies are unloading them to focus on their main business. ...

Energy companies are sticking to their main business of producing, transporting and refining oil and gas, said Brian Kessens, a managing director and portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital Advisors LLC. Most station operators make more money off the snacks than the gasoline. "As an oil company, that’s not really the business you want to be in," Kessens said.

Convenience stores sell about 80 percent of fuels purchased in the U.S., according to NACS, the industry group formerly known as the National Association of Convenience Stores. While people associate energy producers like Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. with the stations that bear their names, most of those are franchises. Oil majors owned less than 1 percent of U.S. gasoline stations as of June 2016, according to NACS.
...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-06/no-more-sunoco-tacos-as-energy-companies-shed-gasoline-stations
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1670 on: April 09, 2017, 06:03:26 PM »
Below the March/YTD EV sales numbers, EV Obsession looks at the difficulties traditional carmakers have switching to EV production.

There have been many, many discussions about why Tesla is an EV leader (or the EV leader), and why other automakers seem to be trailing so much, but I don’t recall putting all of the below factors together in one single article that tries to explain why Tesla is absolutely dominating an electric car market with only 2 models out of the 40+ that are on the market … so here we go....
http://evobsession.com/electric-car-sales/


And here's a Clean Technica article from 2016 that discusses the same subject:

What Goes On In The Minds Of Auto Execs?
... Why would automakers conscientiously try to delay a switch to electric vehicles? Why would they not try to create attractive electric cars once they are shown how popular Tesla’s models are?
...
The short summary is this:

A transition to electric cars threatens the “financial health” of conventional auto companies. Many shareholders would be pissed to see so much investment in gasoline car technology “wasted.” Executives who built their careers on engine expertise would become much less valuable. Automakers would have to shift much of their business strategy, operations, factories, and workers. They’d be tossing their highly valued patents & knowledge down the drain. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2016/08/13/goes-minds-auto-execs/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2241
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1671 on: April 13, 2017, 04:26:58 PM »
An interesting article that ties together tobacco sales, autonomous vehicles, whether your neighbor's car will testify against you, and much, much more!


http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2017/3/20/cars-and-second-order-consequences


Terry

Bruce Steele

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1051
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1672 on: April 13, 2017, 06:45:06 PM »
Cars that see everything around us and communicate back to central command, cellphones that hear everything we say and potentially record it , food and supply lines built around centralized warehousing and instant shelf stocking. Medical and health issues more and more dependent upon high tech, few people versed in practical medicine , fewer still with hands on experience in diagnosing and treating themselves their family or their farm animals.
 Now imagine the power of EMP ( electromagnetic pulse )and the cessation of computer communications , electronic controlled engine systems and electronic medical systems ... the power grid and a good part of what passes as our defense systems.
 And no these aren't things that really bother an old Luddite pig farmer but I would think an honest analyses of the wonders of electrification , self driving cars and modern supply chains might mention potential downsides. However remote the possibilities.

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2241
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1673 on: April 13, 2017, 08:58:09 PM »
We lost power in our building for 7 hours yesterday. 17 floors, below ground parking with electric doors. Water goes out with power & median age is probably ~60.


No way to heat food, nor keep cold things cold for too long. No wireless, landline, TV or DVD. We talked to some neighbors we'd never met. Arranged a cat sitter since it was too far down to carry her. Decided to take a cab to a hotel if the power was still off by 8PM, then slept most of the day.



In short, even less than 1 shift without electricity proved a challenge, especially for to the elderly. The idea of losing power permanently is now more real, & I didn't like what I saw.


Terry

wili

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2044
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1674 on: April 13, 2017, 09:26:41 PM »
Thanks for the update, Terry. Keep us posted.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

DrTskoul

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 804
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1675 on: April 14, 2017, 12:10:03 AM »
Wrong thread but reliability in electrical supply is critical. 99.8% is the requirement in NJ. 99.98% in Austrailia.
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1676 on: April 16, 2017, 02:15:28 AM »
Temporary? Or the start of a paradigm shift in new car ownership.

Toyota Says the U.S. Auto Market Has Peaked
The U.S. auto market has peaked and will shrink this year, with manufacturers using unprecedented incentives to support passenger cars through slumping demand, a Toyota Motor Corp. executive said.

Industrywide deliveries may decline to as low as 17 million vehicles from last year’s record of about 17.5 million, according to Bob Carter, president of Toyota’s U.S. sales unit. A rapid shift in demand toward sport utility vehicles at the expense of sedans is the main factor driving automakers’ heavy discounts, he said....
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-11/toyota-says-u-s-market-has-peaked-as-car-woes-spur-discounts
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

rboyd

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 565
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1677 on: April 16, 2017, 05:07:25 AM »
Reply to "Temporary? Or the start of a paradigm shift in new car ownership"

Light trucks now 65% of the market, up from 50%, reducing the demand for sedans. Cannot be good news for average fuel efficiency.

Bob Wallace

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2245
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1678 on: April 17, 2017, 09:39:13 AM »
When will it be unacceptable to drive a car with a tailpipe? Poll results
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1109716_when-will-it-be-unacceptable-to-drive-a-car-with-a-tailpipe-poll-results

When one can buy a used electric car for $5K

I just found a couple of 2011 Nissan Leafs online for less than $5k.  There are a couple dozen for less than $6k, including some 2013s.

Figure on saving about a thou per year on gas and oil changes.  That make for some sweet commute car savings. 

Bob Wallace

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2245
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1679 on: April 17, 2017, 09:51:21 AM »
Wouldn't "convenience stores" be more likely to offer EV charging, compared to gas stations owned by oil companies?

Most gas stations make very little money from selling gas.  Their profits come from their convenience store sales.  Gas sales serve to get people to stop at their minimarts.

Pull the pumps.  Put in rapid charge stations.  EV owners will spend more time waiting for their cars to charge than gasmobile drives spend waiting for their tank to fill.  Sales per customer should increase.

It may be a decade or more before we can charge an EV in ten minutes or less.  Charging will mean a lot more 'captured customer' time for merchants.

I suspect oil companies are getting rid of their gas stations because they see the end of gas sales coming in the not far future.  Best idea is to sell the stations to others and reposition the capital while there is still adequate sales volume to support a decent sales price.

Getting rid of the stations now also means that they can avoid the mitigation costs of removing underground storage tanks and cleaning up any contamination.

crandles

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1793
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1680 on: April 17, 2017, 02:53:25 PM »
Wouldn't "convenience stores" be more likely to offer EV charging, compared to gas stations owned by oil companies?

Most gas stations make very little money from selling gas.  Their profits come from their convenience store sales.  Gas sales serve to get people to stop at their minimarts.

Pull the pumps.  Put in rapid charge stations.  EV owners will spend more time waiting for their cars to charge than gasmobile drives spend waiting for their tank to fill.  Sales per customer should increase.

It may be a decade or more before we can charge an EV in ten minutes or less.  Charging will mean a lot more 'captured customer' time for merchants.

Won't this mean people will charge vehicles at supermarket/mall/cafe/restaurant rather than at convenience store where they want to rush in and out quickly? I would have thought bad news for convenience stores. But maybe charging stations cost too much and will have to charge exorbitantly for anyone late back? Or will they have ability to move either the cars or the charging equipment to next car in a line when charge requested/paid for is complete? Autonomous cars would presumably solve this without charging station needing more expensive equipment?

DrTskoul

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 804
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1681 on: April 17, 2017, 03:08:16 PM »
Wouldn't "convenience stores" be more likely to offer EV charging, compared to gas stations owned by oil companies?

Most gas stations make very little money from selling gas.  Their profits come from their convenience store sales.  Gas sales serve to get people to stop at their minimarts.

Pull the pumps.  Put in rapid charge stations.  EV owners will spend more time waiting for their cars to charge than gasmobile drives spend waiting for their tank to fill.  Sales per customer should increase.

It may be a decade or more before we can charge an EV in ten minutes or less.  Charging will mean a lot more 'captured customer' time for merchants.

Won't this mean people will charge vehicles at supermarket/mall/cafe/restaurant rather than at convenience store where they want to rush in and out quickly? I would have thought bad news for convenience stores. But maybe charging stations cost too much and will have to charge exorbitantly for anyone late back? Or will they have ability to move either the cars or the charging equipment to next car in a line when charge requested/paid for is complete? Autonomous cars would presumably solve this without charging station needing more expensive equipment?

By the time we depend on Autonomous electric cars to charge themselves at a limited number of charging stations we are toast!!! Btw has anybody done the calcs to see how much energy is needed to simultaneously charge 10% of a large supermarket's Parking lot worth of cars? What percentage of the store's power usage will that represent ??
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

DrTskoul

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 804
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1682 on: April 17, 2017, 03:32:06 PM »
Did some quick calcs.

An average Walmart store consumes around 2 million kWh per year or 5,480 kWh a day ( 229 kW average power).

A single EV car chargin is around 6 kW. If we assume there are 20 charging stations operating at peak power for 6 hours ( conservative low estimate for all EV clientele ) then the power draw for EV is 13% of the store's consumption averaged over day. Averaged over the 6 hours of use assumed above it is closer to 30 - 50%.  That is for only 20 charging stations.
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

crandles

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1793
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1683 on: April 17, 2017, 03:53:49 PM »
10% seems rather high to me. 95% of customers local that can charge at home rather than paying for it elsewhere (probably at over the home cost to cover cost of installation and profit margin)? 5% distance travellers?

Next set of calcs please: the roofspace of large supermarket and 200 car parking spaces covered with solar panels. How much power can this PV generate per day? Then compare with the usage taking account of 10 charging stations being fully used at peak charging demand times and much less used at other times of the day.

DrTskoul

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 804
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1684 on: April 17, 2017, 04:11:19 PM »
10% seems rather high to me. 95% of customers local that can charge at home rather than paying for it elsewhere (probably at over the home cost to cover cost of installation and profit margin)? 5% distance travellers?

Next set of calcs please: the roofspace of large supermarket and 200 car parking spaces covered with solar panels. How much power can this PV generate per day? Then compare with the usage taking account of 10 charging stations being fully used at peak charging demand times and much less used at other times of the day.

A lot of people will not initially have the capital to install a charging station. If it is that cheap the parking lot charging stations will be covered with a tiny increase of delivered price.

Solar panel average 8-10 watts per square foot ( Dr. Google ). Assuming adequate sunshine for 6 hrs, a large super Center with 130000+ sqft roof will support enough power for 15 cars charging at all times during those 6 hrs. 
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1685 on: April 17, 2017, 04:25:48 PM »
Super-fast charging could happen sooner than you think.  Elon Musk has tweeted/teased that the next version of Tesla Superchargers will be significantly greater than 350 kW and could bring down the charging time of a 300-mile battery pack to 15 minutes or less.
https://electrek.co/2016/12/26/tesla-supercharger-v3-zev-credits/


And Wal-mart might just have the wherewithall to go big on EV charging, in locations where it make sense.
Wal-Mart, Advanced Microgrid Solutions to Turn Big-Box Stores Into Hybrid Electric Buildings
Advanced Microgrid Solutions has landed the world's largest retailer as a partner: Wal-Mart.

On Tuesday, the San Francisco-based startup announced it is working with the retail giant to install behind-the-meter batteries at stores to balance on-site energy and provide megawatts of flexibility to utilities, starting with 40 megawatt-hours of projects at 27 Southern California locations. ...
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/wal-mart-to-turn-big-box-stores-into-hybrid-electric-buildings
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

DrTskoul

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 804
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1686 on: April 17, 2017, 04:33:54 PM »
Super-fast charging could happen sooner than you think.  Elon Musk has tweeted/teased that the next version of Tesla Superchargers will be significantly greater than 350 kW and could bring down the charging time of a 300-mile battery pack to 15 minutes or less.
https://electrek.co/2016/12/26/tesla-supercharger-v3-zev-credits/


And Wal-mart might just have the wherewithall to go big on EV charging, in locations where it make sense.
Wal-Mart, Advanced Microgrid Solutions to Turn Big-Box Stores Into Hybrid Electric Buildings
Advanced Microgrid Solutions has landed the world's largest retailer as a partner: Wal-Mart.

On Tuesday, the San Francisco-based startup announced it is working with the retail giant to install behind-the-meter batteries at stores to balance on-site energy and provide megawatts of flexibility to utilities, starting with 40 megawatt-hours of projects at 27 Southern California locations. ...
https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/wal-mart-to-turn-big-box-stores-into-hybrid-electric-buildings

As long as the fast charging form factor is adopted by other EVs too...
“You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts.”
― Richard P. Feynman

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1687 on: April 17, 2017, 04:57:55 PM »
"As long as the fast charging form factor is adopted by other EVs too..."

Yes, the battle of the EV charging format is underway.   Tesla is a member of the CCS-format advisory group, but one has to admit that the Tesla plug is much nicer (smaller) than most of the alternatives.   ;)

Although, Tesla Model 3 spies suggest the charging port doors on the prototype Model 3s are much bigger than on the current Teslas.  And there may be two ports -- one on each side!  Tesla knows the current Superchargers won't handle the hundreds of thousands (eventually millions!) of Model 3s that will soon flood the roads (although not all of them will use Superchargers).  And Tesla is open to other cars using its chargers, with proper arrangements.  But no other production car available today can handle the Supercharger rate.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

crandles

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1793
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1688 on: April 17, 2017, 05:00:36 PM »


A lot of people will not initially have the capital to install a charging station. If it is that cheap the parking lot charging stations will be covered with a tiny increase of delivered price.

Solar panel average 8-10 watts per square foot ( Dr. Google ). Assuming adequate sunshine for 6 hrs, a large super Center with 130000+ sqft roof will support enough power for 15 cars charging at all times during those 6 hrs.

Thank you for your answer.

So people are going to buy an electric car, not have a charging station at home and then on various occasions eg come back from vacation or some other long trip where didn't want to stop on way back and have to have it towed to a charging station because the battery has gone flat? I think people buying an electric car will afford something of a charging solution at home even if it isn't an all singing and dancing rapid charging station.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1689 on: April 17, 2017, 05:12:13 PM »
...
So people are going to buy an electric car, not have a charging station at home and then on various occasions eg come back from vacation or some other long trip where didn't want to stop on way back and have to have it towed to a charging station because the battery has gone flat? I think people buying an electric car will afford something of a charging solution at home even if it isn't an all singing and dancing rapid charging station.

Yes, many people with EVs with with smaller batteries do just fine plugging them into the normal wall socket in their garage.  EVs with larger batteries do better with a 240 V socket such as an electric clothes dryer outlet, or they install a 240V EV charger. The problem arises if you park on the street, or live in an apartment or condominium where there is no charging available where you park your car. That is slowly being addressed in some places by municipal regulations requiring a certain number of parking spots be fitted with EV chargers or at least outlets usable for EV charging.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2245
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1690 on: April 17, 2017, 08:06:39 PM »
About 54% of all US drivers already have an outlet available where they routinely park.  Most are at their home, some at their workplace.

I think we'll see a lot more workplace/school parking lot installations because that deals with many of the people who have no dedicated home parking place.  Some utility companies are already spending millions of dollars on charging outlets.

Apartment/condo charge outlets should become common fairly rapidly.  Would you rent a place that has no internet access?  Same will be true for charging, it will become a required feature for managers who want to rent their properties quickly at market rates.

Adding a 240 vac outlet in a typical garage runs about $250.  That sort of cost is not going to hold back homeowners.  Unless they are in an older home with a small service (100 kW) which would need to be upgraded.

For people who park 'on the street' we may see self-driving cars drop them off at their door and then drive themselves a few miles to a lot or garage where they will park and charge.

The number of rapid charge stations we will need will likely be determined by the number of EV drivers taking long (300+) mile drives on the busiest travel day of the year.  That number will likely be much smaller than most people realize.  And with computer scheduling the number of chargers can be lowered.

If you're going to drive 500 miles on a summer Friday (typically our busiest days) you may get a special price, even get paid, to leave early and do your big charge before the 11AM lunch window.  If you're driving 400 miles with a 300 mile EV you may get waved in at 150 miles so that you can charge during the midmorning.  Or you might charge two short periods in midmorning and midafternoon in order to not be sucking watts during the lunch break.

It's going to be worth paying some drivers to not charge during the 11AM to 2PM lunch charge window.  Cheaper to incentivize alternate charge times than to install chargers that will get used <10 times a year.

Long term I think we'll see 'charging malls' along our major travel routes.  Lots of automatic chargers located close to a variety of restaurants and shopping opportunities (convenience stores).  Your self-driving car will drop you off at the burger, more upscale soup and sandwich place, or bar and grill and then take itself off for a charge.  You might get dropped off at the start of a hiking trail for a bit of exercise.  Your car will pick you up after you're done eating, exercising, shopping, whatever.

Longer term, say by 20 years from now, I suspect EVs will have 500 mile ranges and we won't stop during the day for a charge.  Tesla Destination Chargers which are now being installed at hotels are capable of charging 500 miles in eight hours.  Drive - Plug/sleep - Drive.

bosbas

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 37
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1691 on: April 17, 2017, 08:34:21 PM »
100kW is not what I am used to call a small service; but maybe I'm wrong. I used to have 22kW (200 Amps 110V). Can existing infrastructure manage 100kW per household?

wehappyfew

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 73
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1692 on: April 17, 2017, 08:54:37 PM »
I think he meant to say 100 Amp service... common in older houses.


Bob Wallace

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2245
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1693 on: April 17, 2017, 09:32:18 PM »
I think he meant to say 100 Amp service... common in older houses.

Yes, thanks.  I had one of those "something doesn't feel quite right" feelings as I punched Post.


bosbas

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 37
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1694 on: April 17, 2017, 11:07:52 PM »
Makes lot of sense; thanks.

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2241
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1695 on: April 18, 2017, 02:58:13 PM »
When I purchase an autonomous vehicle have I purchased autonomous personalized transportation, or an autonomous personalized robot?


With very minor software upgrades Rollin' Robbie should be able to:


Purchase groceries
Bring home cooked meals, with chilled libations
Take out & return dry cleaning & laundry
Walk Rex, he needs the exercise since RR has been bringing in the paper
Cruise the red light district & return with the evening's entertainment
Participate in protest marches & park-ins
Participate in regular car wash, detailing outings
Meet me at a far away train depot


With hardware add-ons RR could be upgraded to:


Mow, rake, & vacuum the yard
Trim & maintain shrubbery and hedges
Maintain an off site vegetable garden
Spy on my (possibly) cheating spouse
Cover my extra-marital affairs from prying eyes & sensors
Prepare and serve hors d'oeuvres & cocktails at patio parties
Provide security for the manse


I think I could continue for a long time on this particular vein. Once you have power, mobility, sensors, and an expandable brain, the possibilities become endless. Having once shelled out the shekels for the basic platform, why not develop it's utility?


Welcome to Rollin' Robbie's world - until AI decides the squishy stuff is gumming up the place.


Terry


Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1696 on: April 18, 2017, 07:05:19 PM »
More chargers are being added to the busy Interstate 95 highway between Boston and Washington D.C.  They are teasing rates of 150 kW "in the future" -- perhaps tied to the next version of the Nissan LEAF, expected later this year.

Nissan and EVgo to build EV fast-charging corridor on the east coast: 50 kW (pre-wired for 150 kW)
https://electrek.co/2017/04/18/nissan-evgo-ev-fast-charging-corridor-east-coast/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Royalty
  • Posts: 9630
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1697 on: April 18, 2017, 07:06:10 PM »
Fast-Charging, from the battery's point of view....

EV batteries accept high rates of charge when the battery is nearly depleted, but to prevent damage to the battery, the charge rate is ramped down when the battery reaches a higher state of charge (SOC).  Temperature is also a factor -- higher battery temperatures lead to faster degradation of the battery pack.  In this article and video, a Tesla owner tests his theory that active thermal management of the liquid-cooled Tesla pack kicks in at a temperature of 113°F (45°C), lowering the charge rate even before the battery reaches a 60% SOC where Tesla charging normally slows.

https://www.teslarati.com/watch-tesla-battery-thermal-management-action-supercharging/amp
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2245
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1698 on: April 18, 2017, 07:43:02 PM »
When I purchase an autonomous vehicle have I purchased autonomous personalized transportation, or an autonomous personalized robot?

Some of the tasks you list will likely be performed by self-driving vehicles, but probably not the one you own.

I can see a lot of grocery shopping going online.  Getting low on milk?  Click on milk and it's added to your shopping list.  When you really need something you'll press "Order" and your list will be filled and added to the delivery vehicle heading to your neighborhood.  Same with laundry/cleaning pickup and delivery. And takeout food.  Actual times will need to be coordinated so that you meet the delivery vehicle in a timely manner.

Yard maintenance?  The robotic machines that groom your lawn, trim your shrubs, and clean your walk may be owned by someone else.  If you lawn needs mowing an hour every other week then it should be a lot cheaper to rent an hour's worth of service.

I suspect that within ten years personal vehicle ownership will be on the decline.  Do you really need to purchase a vehicle that you use only ten hours a week?  Assume there are about 12 hours a day of heavy vehicle usage.  That's 84 hours.  You need the vehicle only 12% of that time.  If a self-driving car was in use only half of that 84 hours your 'share' would be about 25%.  Give the owner some profit and your car costs should be less than half that of owning a car.  The owner (company) will deal with cleaning, replacing tires and brake pads, charging, insurance, registration, etc.  You just get in and ride.

Oh, and you may find it cheaper to phone for a sex robot than a human.  Lots less chance of having your phone and wallet stolen....

TerryM

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2241
    • View Profile
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1699 on: April 18, 2017, 09:17:05 PM »
Bob
Appreciate the feedback.


Most seem to be assuming a similar ownership model to today, and it was this future I was fantasizing about. A vehicle that's only used for transportation a very small part of the day should be kept busy, (It's the American Way), and while others have postulated everything from hiring it out to Uber, to simply having it finding it's own parking space, or doing it's own fill up, I was considering some more creative uses.


If the hardware is already sitting in my garage, why pay for some other robot to tend the hedges. If I've already spent $50k for the basics, why not have it doing all the grunt work rather than paying others to run my errands.
I actually drove a cab once and know how passengers clean up after themselves. Not sure I'd want that in my car, but, if it could run to a local orange grove, pick a juicy ripe one off the branch & have it back for my breakfast, that's an add on option I might opt for.


Much of the car ownership thing was about bragging rights. Why change a working model. When Rex is driven to the park, then walked, and cleaned up after, by your RR Deluxe, with the Doggy Do Do option, the neighbor ladies will swoon. When your RR Deluxe, with the Heavenly Hostess package, serves guests around the pool, your buddies will cringe as their wives envy yours.


The marketing options are endless. Be the first on your block with a RR Deluxe, Home Security Package, available with 12 gauge or Laser options.


The heavily chromed hardtop convertible model that mixes frozen margaritas as you cruise the beach, then disappears and returns with a blanket, an umbrella and a box of Super Sized Condoms, will sell like hot cakes, or hot tamales depending on your local.


These things are the future I tell ya.
A chicken in every pot & a Rollin' Robbie in every garage.


Terry  ;)