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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #200 on: August 31, 2014, 06:53:09 PM »
Let me copy in something that I had archived...

"Argonne National Laboratories has something called the GREET model. (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) I downloaded the so-called GREET model but it turned out to be quite complicated.

Then I found what they call their "mini-tool" which gives a summary of various vehicle/fuel technologies. You can find it here: http://greet.es.anl.gov/results Click where it says "here" to download the Excel spreadsheet. After you open the spreadsheet go to the bottom and click on the "per_mi" tab.

These greenhouse gas calculations are well-to-wheels. In other words, ALL energy expenditures are included such as drilling, transporting of crude, refining, and transportation to the pump, etc, etc. The units are grams of CO2 equivalent per mile. I picked out some of the most common vehicles and fuels.

Conventional ICE gasoline......451
HEV gasoline........................323
FFV corn ethanol E85............371
FFV switchgrass E85............119
CNG ICE..............................391
Diesel ICE............................386
Renewable diesel-soybean......92
Electricity EV U.S. Mix..........333
Electricity EV CA Mix............172
Electricity EV Coal................579
Electric EV NGCC.................243

http://www.plugincars.com/winning-coal-burning-electric-plants-vs-burning-gas-tailpipe-argument.html

http://greet.es.anl.gov/results

Too bad they didn't calculate EV running on wind and solar.  That, IMHO, is where we are heading.

SATire

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #201 on: August 31, 2014, 09:03:26 PM »
Bob, that is an impressive spread sheet. Unfortunately, I did not get it - I could not compare any number to the other study I did link above. Maybe you can help me:

In the link I did provide they say for the electric car: 100 g/km in todays German grid (that is 160 g/mile)

And for the combustion car they say 200 g/km (that is 320 g/mile).
There must be included a lot of extra-stuff since the average of all new cars last year was at this place: 130 g/km (208 g/mile) - not so far from the electric car.

So an electric car would be a bit better than the average car last year in Germany... Something must be wrong - the "hidden energy" maybe.

But now compare that to an efficient combustion car, e.g. the VW Polo Diesel blue motion: 82 g/km (132 g/mile) - hard to beat with our in average still 25% renewables grid...

Furthermore they compare the emission to produce the battery/electro motor (3 t, metric) with the 
the emission to produce the diesel engine (0.3t, metric).

They conclude: after 27,000 km the electric is better (than the 200 g/km combustion).

I would conclude: The electric car can not beat last years average car and has zero chance against an efficient diesel (82 g/km) in the next 10 years...

What do you think do I miss?
Thanks for any help.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #202 on: August 31, 2014, 09:27:20 PM »

Let me start by copying the numbers that Plug In Cars published...

Everything is, I  think, in grams  of CO2 equivalent per mile.

Conventional ICE gasoline......451
HEV gasoline........................323
FFV corn ethanol E85............371
FFV switchgrass E85............119
CNG ICE..............................391
Diesel ICE............................386
Renewable diesel-soybean......92
Electricity EV U.S. Mix..........333
Electricity EV CA Mix............172
Electricity EV Coal................579
Electric EV NGCC.................243

Then yours...

Electricity EV German Mix..........160
Combustion Car ...............320
Average of All New Cars........208
 VW Polo Diesel Blue Motion........132

That right?

EV on CA and German grids are about the same (172 and 160). 

Average of all new cars is 208, higher than 172 and 160.  And the 172/160 numbers will drop as grids transition to more renewables.

Plug In is using US cars which are not as efficient as European cars.  And data from 2012, which might make a difference.   The 451/208 difference is not surprising.  Our fleet mileage in 2012 was probably below 25 MPG.

VW Polo at 132 is cleaner than an EV on CA and German grids.  Of course that's the absolutely cleanest sold ICEV that we know about.  And we're comparing it to grids which aren't the cleanest we have.

How about all the countries that have very clean grids?  If we're going to compare to the best ICEV shouldn't we also use EVs on the cleanest grids?  Best:Best.

There are at least 17 countries with 90% renewable grids and about half a dozen with 100% renewable grids.

http://k.lenz.name/LB/?p=6525

SATire

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #203 on: August 31, 2014, 09:52:39 PM »
Thank you, Bob.

So if you think that is clear I would agree.

So the 2.7t extra CO2 for the battery results in 2.7t/40g=67.500 miles, after wich the electric car gets parity with the average combustion car. It is hard to convince the neighbour to pay the extra money - especially since less extra money is needed to buy that most efficient diesel car. The only other solution is to move to Norway to seriously buy an electric car...

But you are right that the things will get better - soon we will have 50% renewables in the grid and batteries will get cheaper = less energy will be necessary (It is quite save to equal price with emission these days - since most income is spend in things made using energy). But for the next 10 years - let us go with the diesel to save a bit.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #204 on: August 31, 2014, 10:09:36 PM »
Few people are going to purchase based on CO2, at least that will only very rarely be the primary consideration.  I would think that most people would look at a five year period during which the EV catches up and then passes the ICEV as a "so what?".  Overall the EV is better, just not during the first quarter/third of operation.

I think most "green" people are going to look at whether the car is among the greenest but look mostly at price and cost of operation.  With the sort of fuel prices one finds in Europe I would think EVs would look very attractive. 

How does the German/European math work?  What's the cost to purchase and the cost per mile for a  Polo and Leaf?

In the US prices are somewhat distorted by the federal and state subsidies.  The Leaf, after subsidy is $21,480.  The Prius, our highest (I think) MPG car is $24,200.  It costs about 4 cents per mile to operate a Leaf on 12 cent/kWh electricity.  It costs about 7 cents to fuel a Prius on $3.59/gallon gas.

My guess is that by the time Nissan runs through it's 200k car subsidy allowance they will be able to lower the price to match or better the cost of a Prius. 


SATire

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #205 on: August 31, 2014, 11:17:51 PM »
Bob,

the calculation of the cost is even worse than the calculation of the emission (since here is no subsidy for cars - only for electricity produced by renewables in the grid. But we have significant tax on petrol and a bit less on diesel):

To cite again the same German study linked above:

electrical car:
price for the car: 28,000 € (10,000 € motor & battery) = 37,000 US $
energy cost: 4 ct/km = 8 US ct/mile

last years average combustion car:
price for the car: 20,000 € (2,000 € motor) = 26,000 US $
energy cost: 9 ct/km (19 US ct/mile)

it takes 100,000 miles to get parity for the electrical car.

VW Polo diesel blue motion 1.4 TDi:
price for the car: 17,500 € (+ cost for extras...)
energy price (1,4€/l=7 US $/gallone ): 4 ct/km = 8 US ct/mile

That Polo clearly wins in the category reason. But it is a small car and poeple prefer bigger premium cars... maybe the new BMW i3/i8 will be sexy enough for our customers.

edit: just googled the price for a Nissan Leaf here: starting at 23,790 €= 31,300 US $...
« Last Edit: August 31, 2014, 11:35:04 PM by SATire »

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #206 on: August 31, 2014, 11:26:06 PM »
If it's a 10 year break even then EV sales are likely to stay low until prices come down.

We're likely talking short years so I'm not worrying about it.  Between what Tesla is about to do in the US and what China seems to be doing we're likely to see much improved prices very soon.

European manufacturers are likely to see themselves squeezed from two directions.  They'll also have to get serious about cost cuts.

SATire

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #207 on: September 01, 2014, 10:01:33 AM »
European manufacturers are likely to see themselves squeezed from two directions.  They'll also have to get serious about cost cuts.
Yes Bob, I am also a bit worried, what German engineers would do in future if not making combustion engines anymore...

But the prices here are ok and will rise further - Europe is ahead of USA in this respect: The most fair/easy/convincing way to reduce emissions is to increase the prices for energy consumption - e.g. for private mobility by taxes and such. I am sure USA will follow this road once it seriously starts to reduce emissions.

wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #208 on: September 01, 2014, 05:38:32 PM »
"The most fair/easy/convincing way to reduce emissions is to increase the prices for energy consumption"

Well...it may perhaps be the easiest way (we can debate that separately), but I don't see how you can claim it is the fairest. It means that it will be a relatively painless for the rich, but very hard on the poor. It is economic rationing. Kind of the opposite of, for example, progressive taxation.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #209 on: September 01, 2014, 07:44:10 PM »
It is extremely difficult to raise taxes at the federal level in the US.  And will likely be for a few more years.  And wili''s got it right.  A consumption tax is not progressive and puts a lot of burden on those who are having a hard time with their budgets.

I really think we, and the rest of the world, will reduce carbon use simply because going carbon-free is cheaper.  It's cheaper to make electricity with wind turbines and solar panels than with coal.  It's cheaper to drive an electric vehicle than an oil powered vehicle.

I'd like to see taxes on carbon, that would drive the transition faster and we do need faster.  But I think we'll hit the IPCC 40% to 70% reduction window with just 'cost of energy' forces operating.

SATire

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #210 on: September 01, 2014, 08:53:28 PM »
a progressive carbon tax? A progressive tax at the gasoline station and at the car shop? Sounds crazy to me - but why not. One must feel the price for energy - and rich poeple need more to get the feeling ;-)

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #211 on: September 01, 2014, 09:21:43 PM »
In terms of the US alone - miles driven is falling and PBO negotiated much improved fleet mileage requirements, doubling them over a relatively short period.  Those two things are likely moving US oil use downward at an acceptable pace.

What's likely to create a huge drop in oil usage is the introduction of 150-200 mile range EVs for less than $30k.  A carbon tax on oil would suppress oil usage some but give people an affordable to purchase option that cuts operation costs 3x per miles and oil use will plummet.

Again, increasing the tax on fuel in order to lower consumption it pretty much impossible in the US.  We can't seem to increase the fuel tax a bit in order to pay for road repairs.

wili

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« Reply #212 on: September 02, 2014, 04:59:21 AM »
"rich poeple need more to get the feeling"

Exactly.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Glenn Tamblyn

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #213 on: September 02, 2014, 02:52:40 PM »
"Exactly"

Their chewing gum lost it's flavour on the bed-post overnight...
... So they need more gum.

"My jaws a stuck together ... I can't open my mouth anymore ... I cmphcmphcmphcmph..."

Laurent

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #214 on: September 12, 2014, 07:13:19 PM »
Electric Formula E car gets Donington Park outing
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-28154020

The Voice of Bart Simpson Wants You to Check Out Electric Cars Next Week
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gina-coplonnewfield/the-voice-of-bart-simpson_b_5810548.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green
« Last Edit: September 12, 2014, 07:21:07 PM by Laurent »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #215 on: September 16, 2014, 08:06:21 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #216 on: September 22, 2014, 08:24:46 PM »
Sir Richard Branson is tackling the unsexy job of making the trucking industry more fuel efficient, cutting fuel costs by 30%.  Estimates are the US alone has 2 million tractor-trailers.

The website Truckingefficiency.org features many different technologies.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102021428
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Laurent

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #217 on: September 29, 2014, 11:10:23 AM »
3D printed car.
https://localmotors.com/


Google wish to reduce the size of the power inverter.
https://www.littleboxchallenge.com/

Something unusual.
http://www.movpak.com/
« Last Edit: September 29, 2014, 11:59:44 AM by Laurent »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #218 on: October 08, 2014, 10:19:23 PM »
Planes. 
Boeing responds to protesters at the South by Southwest Eco gathering -- but there's really nothing in the immediate offing to markedly reduce emissions except... not flying.

http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2014/oct/08/boeing-biofuels-uae-peak-travel-airlines-sxsw-eco
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Laurent

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #219 on: December 08, 2014, 09:26:24 PM »
Salt-Water Powered Car Gets Approval In Europe – Yes It’s Real
http://www.collective-evolution.com/2014/09/27/salt-water-powered-car-gets-approval-in-europe-yes-its-real/

What do you think ? I am puzzled...

jbatteen

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #220 on: December 09, 2014, 03:58:25 AM »
Not real.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #221 on: December 09, 2014, 07:41:41 PM »
Quote

What do you think ? I am puzzled...

Extremely skeptical.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #222 on: December 10, 2014, 12:49:38 AM »
Another article on the "saltwater" car:
Quote
It’s a shame, then, that the makers of the Quant e-Sportlimousine had to put their amazing saltwater battery in a car that, should it ever hit the market, may cost about $1.7 million, making Tesla’s Model S luxury electric car look like a bargain at $70,000 to $95,000.
http://qz.com/261450/this-sports-car-runs-on-saltwater-but-its-no-threat-to-tesla/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #223 on: December 11, 2014, 08:01:20 PM »
U.S. roads and bridges are in such bad shape -- and gas prices are currently so low -- that even Republican governors are considering increasing gasoline taxes.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-10/highway-funds-so-low-in-states-that-even-republicans-seek-taxes.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #224 on: December 12, 2014, 01:28:53 AM »
More than half of Nissan Leaf EV owners in small UK survey insist they will never u-turn and buy conventional cars again
Quote
More than half of respondents said they would not go back to conventional cars, while 95 per cent said they were happy with the Leaf and would recommend it to a friend.

In addition, 93 per cent said they used the Leaf as their main family car, more than a third said they found no need to plan journeys ahead of time, and 89 per cent reported significant cost savings had resulted from running an electric car.
http://m.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2386180/more-than-half-of-nissan-leaf-owners-insist-they-will-never-u-turn-and-buy-conventional-cars-again
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #225 on: December 14, 2014, 09:21:14 PM »
Low Crude Oil Prices Hammer Tesla?   Perhaps.
http://247wallst.com/autos/2014/12/13/low-crude-oil-prices-hammer-tesla/

But I think they underestimate the reasons why someone buys a $75,000 car, regardless of the cost of gas.
When Elon Musk said drivers choose between "Sport" and "Insane" acceleration modes on the latest Tesla, he was not making a joke! 
Watch (90 second video):
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Laurent

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #226 on: December 17, 2014, 10:06:38 AM »
Trailer Turtle English


Quote
The Turtle 1 is a concept car that was built within a three-month period, without a prearranged plan or design, using the strengths and possibilities of Suame Magazine.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #227 on: December 18, 2014, 06:57:49 PM »
Toyota is betting on hydrogen fuel cell cars.  Musk calls them "fool cells."
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-12-17/toyota-embraces-fuel-cell-cars-for-post-gasoline-future
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #228 on: December 20, 2014, 03:23:54 PM »
Think a big problem with EV's is: they take too long to charge on the road?  Tesla is testing battery swaps in "limited beta mode" between San Francisco and Los Angeles.  It's quicker than a gasoline fill-up.  And cheaper than a tank of premium gas.

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/battery-swap-pilot-program
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #229 on: December 21, 2014, 07:21:55 PM »
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic utilities sign letter encouraging EV adoption.
Quote
This week, 67 businesses and organizations sent a letter (PDF) to the governors and governors-elect of the 11 Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states urging them to take specific actions that will accelerate EV adoption. 

Notably, many businesses signed  the letter because they see a transition to EVs as a crucial way to spur domestic jobs and energy opportunities. Letter signers include the utilities National Grid and Con Edison because of the important intersection between EVs and electricity policies.
(My emphasis.)

Part of the letter:
Quote
Since EVs have little or no conventional tailpipe emissions, they can be a key component to improving health outcomes and reducing costs to treat illnesses caused or worsened by this pollution. EVs also have significant climate benefits. With the current electricity generation mix in the region, a car that only uses electricity from the grid will be responsible for 50-70 percent less greenhouse gas pollution than a comparable gasoline-only vehicle. As we shift to cleaner sources of electricity, public health and environmental benefits of EVs will only increase over time. This is a stark contrast to trends in the petroleum industry where dirtier oil sources are entering the market in increasing quantities.
http://sierraclub.org/compass/2014/12/dear-governors-electric-vehicle-policies-will-help-you-succeed
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #230 on: December 21, 2014, 07:48:40 PM »
EVs are a major new market for utilities.  They should more than replace the market lost to end-user storage and efficiency.

A few utilities are waking up to the potential.  SoCal Edison has put up $350 million to assist with the installation of 300,000 more charging outlets, mostly at workplaces and apartments.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #231 on: December 22, 2014, 04:09:20 PM »
An interesting look at the reasons behind, and effects of, gasoline taxes in the US.  Given the current low oil prices, there is much talk of raising them.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-gas-taxes/2014/12/19/cca3bc00-808a-11e4-81fd-8c4814dfa9d7_story.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #232 on: December 24, 2014, 09:49:07 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #233 on: December 24, 2014, 10:02:58 PM »
Paris plans to ban cars from its city center
http://grist.org/list/paris-plans-to-ban-cars-from-its-city-center/

If she'd add 'free to ride' or cheap day pass electric shuttles to the list then she'd have a real winner.

Don't required people to go down the Metro and back up just to go from the Louvre to the Eiffel Tower.

wili

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« Reply #234 on: December 24, 2014, 11:10:04 PM »
I don't get the impression that they are going to ban busses and shuttles, electric or otherwise. In any case, it is a very pleasant stroll of a couple miles (3.4 k to be precise) down the Seine to the Tower.

I like how they point out how much further ahead the Dutch are in this area. My daughter just came from there and was very enthusiastic.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #235 on: December 27, 2014, 12:30:18 AM »
Battery, tire and aerodynamic upgrades now available for Tesla Roadster model will result in 400-mile potential range.  Non-stop drive from San Francisco to Los Angeles planned for early 2015.
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/roadster-30
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #236 on: December 27, 2014, 12:44:16 AM »
31% capacity improvement from the 2008 battery pack.

That's the sort of improvement we need.  Prices will fix themselves as volume increases.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #237 on: December 27, 2014, 01:51:27 AM »
Another article on the Tesla Roadster upgrade concludes:
Quote
Suburban sprawl, and the increased driving and consumption that accompanies it, is a major contributor of the greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change. The sheer economics of pairing solar panels with electric vehicles could make the combination appealing to suburban dwellers on both sides of the political aisle. Mooney cites a new working paper by researchers at the UCLA Institute of the Environment which estimates that “for a household that buys an electric vehicle and also owns a solar panel system generating enough power for both the home and the electric car, the monthly cost might be just $89 per month — compared with $255 per month for a household driving a regular car without any solar panels.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/12/26/3607003/tesla-announces-roadster-upgrade/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #238 on: December 27, 2014, 02:27:39 AM »
Just came across this:
Quote
We find that powering vehicles with corn ethanol or with coal-based or “grid average” electricity increases monetized environmental health impacts by 80% or more relative to using conventional gasoline. Conversely, EVs powered by low-emitting electricity from natural gas, wind, water, or solar power reduce environmental health impacts by 50% or more. Consideration of potential climate change impacts alongside the human health outcomes described here further reinforces the environmental preferability of EVs powered by low-emitting electricity relative to gasoline vehicles.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/12/10/1406853111.abstract
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/12/10/1406853111.long

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SATire

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #239 on: December 30, 2014, 01:04:16 PM »
First "real electric car": http://www.streetscooter.eu/en/

For my feeling most commercial electric cars today are just "normal" cars with a substituted engine. Some are "life-style" cars (e.g. Tesla, Porsche 918 Spyder, BMW i) or marketing things (hybrides and such) to demonstrate political correct "pseudo-sustainability" without any heard. But missing was a new concept of cars concentrating on the advantage of electrical motors and optimizing sustainability.

Streetscouter is different: Cheap battery, 130 km range at max. 80 km/h - perfect for use in cities, which are the natural the habitat of electrical cars. Reduced to the important things to safe costs and resources (e.g. no expensive fast loading - people sleep at night anyway).

Now Post/DHL did invest in that: Delivery of parcels can be done perfectly with this car at lowest price. So this university spin-off company starts flying. http://www.dpdhl.com/en/media_relations/press_releases/2014/deutsche_post_dhl_acquires_streetscooter_gmbh.html

What I think is missing is something like the following vision: This car is for the cities. But there is no chance to travel to other cities with this. Possible solutions:
1. Car sharing: You want to visit other cities but your car doesn't. So leave it in you home city and take another one elsewhere.
2. No 1 is not practicable if you want to go on holiday with your family e.g. in a house in Sweden - you have to carry a lot of stuff for your children and maybe you want to go there with your own property to avoid the cleaning of other peoples car after your children did what they do in cars...
Vision to address this: We have a railway station in the centre of each city and these stations are connected with 300 km/h trains. So why not enter with your electric car such fast train in your home town and leave the train in the centre of the city you want to be? Would be just perfect to start your holiday in the city centre with full powered battery... but that is just a nice dream today. What about your dreams?
« Last Edit: December 30, 2014, 01:52:59 PM by SATire »

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #240 on: December 30, 2014, 07:54:22 PM »
My vision is that we'll have 200 mile range EVs for about $35k before the end of 2017.  (I think there are now at least three manufacturers shooting for something around there.)

That, along with superchargers, and possibly battery swapping, will make it easy to travel 500 miles a day in about the same amount of time it takes to drive an ICEV.

Volume production will make EVs cheaper than same-model ICEVs.

Putting the batteries under the floorboard like Tesla has done will give us cars with vastly more usable room that what we're used to driving.  Plus the cars will be a lot safer and a lot more stable going around curves.

Within a few years our EVs will be charged almost totally with wind and solar "peak" electricity which will mean even cheaper operation per mile and much easier integration of renewables onto our grids.

I have another vision for a little further down the road.  I think we'll see small self-driving, lower speed (top 50 MPH/80 kmPH), small, very easy entry/exit cars dominating the middle areas of our larger cities.  Private cars may be rare - regulated out.  You'll simply hit a button on your phone screen and a car will meet you at the door and drive you to your destination.  People will park their personal cars outside of the 'downtown' area and transfer to a self-driver for the last mile.

Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #241 on: December 31, 2014, 12:38:55 AM »
First "real electric car": http://www.streetscooter.eu/en/

For my feeling most commercial electric cars today are just "normal" cars with a substituted engine. Some are "life-style" cars (e.g. Tesla, Porsche 918 Spyder, BMW i) or marketing things (hybrides and such) to demonstrate political correct "pseudo-sustainability" without any heard. But missing was a new concept of cars concentrating on the advantage of electrical motors and optimizing sustainability.

Streetscouter is different: Cheap battery, 130 km range at max. 80 km/h - perfect for use in cities, which are the natural the habitat of electrical cars. Reduced to the important things to safe costs and resources (e.g. no expensive fast loading - people sleep at night anyway).

That's nice, and starts to look like something I'd want: a simple, light but sturdy EV, without any of the BS you see on the current EVs that are apparently needed for the EV breakthrough. Except for some way to play music and a bit of heating for when it's freezing, I'd want zero accessories, no screens in the car, no superfluous electronics, nothing that can break down. Simple, somewhat comfortable, lightweight, durable, 200 mile range would be great, no need to go faster than 70 miles an hour.

I fear this car will never be built, because of the lack of perceived and planned obsolescence. I might have to build it myself one day. But first I want to find out if I really need a car (24/7). I won't be having any money for anything the coming 3-5 years, anyhow.
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SATire

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #242 on: December 31, 2014, 01:13:37 AM »
I might have to build it myself one day.
Neven, exactly that is the purpose this car was developed for. It can be produced by mid-sized companies in the one or the other individualized way. The "Work"-version is already in production for Post/DHL. The compact SDV (short distance vehicle) is about to be produced, as far as I know. It is just a matter of will since it is cost effective also in small quantities - the university people here in Aachen are experts in such individualized production in high wage countries. But the hope is, that some car manufacturer (e.g. from China?) jumps on this band wagon to build such <10k € electric car without any unnecessary life-style stuff. Our traditional German car industries still prefer to produce profitable image-cars instead...
« Last Edit: December 31, 2014, 01:32:27 AM by SATire »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #243 on: January 06, 2015, 02:24:12 AM »
Quote
Americans bought more than 30,000 Nissan Leafs in 2014, a yearly sales record that’s never before been reached by an electric plug-in vehicle.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/05/3607826/nissan-leaf-sales-record/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #244 on: January 06, 2015, 04:39:57 AM »
California's Cap and Trade program now includes cars.
http://grist.org/news/californias-cap-and-trade-program-now-covers-cars/

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sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #245 on: January 06, 2015, 07:12:01 AM »
that California program is big, will make impact

JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #246 on: January 06, 2015, 05:27:46 PM »
When thinking about the impact of ev sales and their effect on dealing with climate change (non-existent in fact) it pays to keep in mind how 'few' ev sales there are even after all these years. (I kind of recall getting a lot of grief over pointing out some time back that it would take a generation to convert from fossil fuel cars to ev's - it is interesting to see we are still on the track I described). 

To be US centric for a minute.

Total ev sales in the US were right at 100,000 for 2014.  Total sales in the US were near 15 million.  This means that ev's made up about 1/150th of the market.  This is not significant and has no meaningful impact.  Sales for 2015 are projected to be near 17 million and with the fall in gas prices the consumer is not rushing to ev's but towards the big suv's and light trucks as always.  Thus baking into the cake the 10 or so years of emissions from those large vehicles.  As long as fuel prices remain low this situation will persist.

Even if ev sales rose 50% next year they would amount to less than 1% of sales. 

And it is worth pointing out that many ev's are being powered by coal generated electricity and the owners in those areas would be doing us a service to switch back to fuel efficient gasoline cars.

Cars of any kind are not the answer.  No cars is the answer.
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Yuha

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #247 on: January 06, 2015, 11:15:54 PM »
A major leap in EV batteries could be close.
http://dailykanban.com/2014/12/battery-breakthrough-nissan-poised-take-range-off-table/

Quote
“Commercial applications could be no more than one model cycle away,” said an engineer who is not supposed to talk to me. According to the source, the new battery delivers twice the capacity while weighing – and costing – less than the current shorter range model. In a prototype, Nissan’s Barcelona Technical Centre last year tested a 48 kWh battery, double the capacity of the Leaf’s 24kWh battery.

The above piece does not mention the technology but others are guessing lithium-sulfur.
http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21637344-adding-sulphur-electrical-cells-may-quintuple-their-performance-whiff

Indeed, lithium-sulfur has been considered closest to commercialization among experimental battery chemistries.
http://www.nature.com/news/the-rechargeable-revolution-a-better-battery-1.14815

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #248 on: January 06, 2015, 11:25:08 PM »
The first all-electric, zero-emission car will participate in the grueling 9,000km Dakar cross-country race through Argentina, Bolovia, and Chile.  The 4 batteries will be replaced about every 350 km.
http://www.acciona.com/news/acciona-compete-dakar-rally-first-ever-zero-emission-electric-car
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #249 on: January 07, 2015, 02:47:25 AM »
Given all the phoning and texting and eating while driving today, this new autonomous, electric car cannot come soon enough.
Quote
Mercedes-Benz aims to transform the car into a rolling luxury lounge that chauffeurs passengers autonomously.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-06/mercedes-plots-turning-the-car-into-a-luxury-lounge.html
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