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etienne

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2450 on: October 05, 2017, 10:31:41 PM »

With current auto sales in the U.S. running at about 17 million cars per year, it calls into question whether electric vehicles can replace internal combustion vehicles anytime soon.


There is a very interesting video to watch about disruptive technologies with many interesting examples. I don't agree with all his ideas for the future, but past is real and shows us that things can change very fast.

https://climatecrocks.com/2017/09/16/the-weekend-wonk-tony-seba-on-disruptive-energy-technologies/


numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2451 on: October 06, 2017, 12:16:11 AM »
With current auto sales in the U.S. running at about 17 million cars per year, it calls into question whether electric vehicles can replace internal combustion vehicles anytime soon.

With sales growing at double-digits percentages per year, it's only a matter of time.

BTW, my neighbour has shown up with a Prius. I'm curious how the winter will go for them. I know the batteries lose their warranty when stored in very cold weather for a full day, but do they actually lose?

Yellowknife has a fleet of Prii, seems to be doing fine with them. It's a bit warmer there, but still.

Edit: https://insideevs.com/ev-sales-september-2017/

For the year, ~142,514 deliveries have been made, well ahead of this point from last year (106,585).  By the latter half of this month, plug-in sales will have eclipsed the full 2016 total (158,614).

40% year-over-year is amazingly fast growth, but that's how it's been for years. The way technology adoption goes, we expect this growth rate to more or less continue until market saturation. Market saturation for the new crop of cars is likely to be almost the entire current car market, because their capabilities are similar. So there'll be a year in the not too distant future where suddenly EVs go from being a small minority to ICEs being a small minority of new cars.

Of course, ICEs will take a few years to fade away, and they have widely varying lifetimes, so the change in the fleet will be more gradual.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2017, 12:47:24 AM by numerobis »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2452 on: October 06, 2017, 01:29:11 AM »

Tesla is a very cool story and the cars, from a design standpoint, are certainly attractive to a large segment of Americans. The cost is a concern and certainly would eliminate many car buyers.

With current auto sales in the U.S. running at about 17 million cars per year, it calls into question whether electric vehicles can replace internal combustion vehicles anytime soon.

<snipped>

That is indeed the question of the year!  Tesla never wanted to be the only EV out there -- Musk's plan was to "accelerate the advent of sustainable transport" -- and by producing a sexy, family-friendly sedan in the Model S, and a frighteningly large number of reservations for the lower cost Model 3, he certainly made other car makers sit up, stop laughing, and take EVs seriously.  :)  With more and more countries saying they will ban ICE vehicles in the coming years, the major manufacturers are starting to turn.  And new EV startups are emerging every month.

Tesla may wind up being the iPhone of EVs, at least for a while, but that leaves the field wide open for others to become the even more popular Android version.  :D  I think there will be surprises that no one expects -- like the Hyundai Ioniq, which is (one of) the most fuel-efficient cars out there! 

And don't forget that adoption of new technology tends to run on an S-curve, not a linear increase.  So we can't use the last few years to judge how quickly EVs will take hold.  If manufacturers of motor scooters and "tuk-tuks" turn to electricity, too, the transformation could happen very rapidly.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2453 on: October 06, 2017, 04:25:07 AM »
I walked by a BMW 320i on display today.  The window sticker was $34k-something.  A few hundred dollars less than the base price for the Tesla 3.

But what really caught my eye was the expected cost per year for gasoline - $1,500.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2454 on: October 07, 2017, 01:59:10 AM »
Update on many things Tesla:

Elon Musk tweeted:
Tesla Semi unveil now Nov 16. Diverting resources to fix Model 3 bottlenecks & increase battery production for Puerto Rico & other affected areas.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/916395155120205825

And Electrek writes three articles ;D :

Tesla pushes electric truck unveiling to Nov 16 as it focuses on Model 3 and Puerto Rico, says Elon Musk
https://electrek.co/2017/10/06/tesla-semi-electric-truck-unveiling-nov-16-model-3-puerto-rico-elon-musk/

Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk elaborates on delivery timeline, production hell, and standard features
https://electrek.co/2017/10/06/tesla-model-3-elon-musk-delivery-timeline-production-hell-standard-features/

Tesla replaces Model 3 headlights, battery, seats, and more while going through ‘production hell’
https://electrek.co/2017/10/06/tesla-model-3-headlights-battery-seats/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2455 on: October 07, 2017, 02:30:56 PM »
"The increase in EV sales is matched by a nearly 25 percent decline in sales of diesel powered cars."

Go, Norway!
Last month, 13,484 new passenger cars were registered in Norway. 29% of them were EVs!

Electric Car Sales Rise In Norway, Tesla Sales Soar
... Last month, 13,484 new passenger cars were registered in Norway. 29% of them were EVs. The numbers by manufacturer break down like this:

1. Volkswagen: 2.083 (- 0.0 percent)

2. Tesla: 2.003 (+ 136.2 percent)

3. Toyota: 1,355 (- 25.7 percent)

4. Volvo: 960 (+ 25.8 percent)

5. BMW: 872 (- 26.9 percent)
https://gas2.org/2017/10/03/electric-car-sales-rise-norway-tesla-sales-soar/

Tesla breaks delivery record in Norway – resulting in new lowest CO2 emissions ever for new vehicles
It enabled the lowest total average CO2 emissions of new vehicles registered in a month ever. Øyvind Solberg Thorsen, Director of Norway’s Road Traffic Advisory Board, confirmed that average CO2 emissions for all first-registered new passenger cars were 71 g per km in September 2017 – 17 g lower than a year ago.

Now Mercedes, Audi, and Jaguar all turned to Norway to sell their first all-electric cars with thousands of reservations – something that they generally don’t do with new vehicles, but they want to lock in demand early as EV demand seems to grow faster than supply in the country.

The country has the goal to reach 100% of new car sales being zero-emission vehicles starting in 2025. With those new electric vehicles and others, like Tesla’s Model 3, adding to the current EV offering in the country, it’s certainly on the right track.
https://electrek.co/2017/10/06/tesla-record-norway-registers-lowest-co2-emissions-electric-car/

Part of the reason for the big Tesla numbers in September, it must be noted, is that Tesla gangs together deliveries to different regions over time.  So volumes may vary widely from month to month.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2456 on: October 07, 2017, 04:47:19 PM »
New car-sharing service in Amsterdam uses the Hyundai Ionic EV.  Rent by the day, hour, or minute.

Hyundai launches electric car sharing service - starting with 100 Ioniq EVs in Amsterdam
https://electrek.co/2017/10/05/hyundai-electric-car-sharing-service-100-ioniq-evs-amsterdam/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2457 on: October 08, 2017, 04:02:31 AM »
Reuters: Automakers say U.S. fuel economy standards unrealistic, cite costs and consumers
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-automakers-emissions/automakers-say-u-s-fuel-economy-standards-unrealistic-cite-costs-and-consumers-idUSKBN1CB2UY
     https://twitter.com/reuters/status/916498370339930112

Elon Musk replied:  @Reuters You forgot to add the video version of their response
[10 hours of crying baby:]
     https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/916518956050956288


 ;D
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2458 on: October 08, 2017, 07:12:24 AM »
2025 CAFE standards for cars is 54.5 MPG and 50 for light trucks.  Just sell an EV for every 30 MPG ICEV and Bob's your uncle.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2459 on: October 08, 2017, 05:12:00 PM »
2025 CAFE standards for cars is 54.5 MPG and 50 for light trucks.  Just sell an EV for every 30 MPG ICEV and Bob's your uncle.

By 2025, there will be plenty of full-electric SUVs and trucks with the capabilities people want -- so the market for the gas-guzzling ICE versions will collapse, regardless of CAFE standards.  The only question is whether carmakers in the U.S. will have transitioned quickly enough to remain solvent.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2460 on: October 08, 2017, 05:57:49 PM »
[quote author=Sigmetnow link=topic=438.msg130918#msg130918

By 2025, there will be plenty of full-electric SUVs and trucks with the capabilities people want -- so the market for the gas-guzzling ICE versions will collapse, regardless of CAFE standards.  The only question is whether carmakers in the U.S. will have transitioned quickly enough to remain solvent.
[/quote]


They call it creative destruction - when a new way of doing something destroys the old way. What scares me is not what happens in the USA and Europe and China and India etc when EVs and renewable energy become the new way. What worries me is Saudi Arabia Nigeria Venezuela Russia  etc etc as they find out demand for the black stuff fades away and they have not built a new way and go bust. 10 years is not  a long way away.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2461 on: October 08, 2017, 06:47:34 PM »
I expect we'll have full sized battery powered pickups and SUVs by 2025 and that they will cost less to purchase than same-feature ICE versions.  I'm just pointing out how easily the CAFE regs can be met.

Any car manufacturer who is not selling EVs by 2025 is probably not long for this world.

When it comes to oil demand decay, Venezuela is already toast. 

The Saudis are attempting to move some wealth into non-oil investments but they may not be able to keep standards of living high enough to prevent an overthrow of the royal family.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the royals departing for luxury villas in Europe.

The US and Europe won't be hurt, best I can guess.  Our economies will be boosted by cheaper electricity and less spending on imported fuel.  Lower spending on healthcare. 

China and India, not being oil producing countries, will be better off by using locally generated electricity rather than imported oil.

Russia is likely to take it in the shorts.  It might finally remove Russia from being a  threat to the rest of the world.

Nigeria and a few other countries where oil is a big player and they've made no arrangements to replace it may be badly hurt.  Ecuador may suffer.


etienne

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2462 on: October 08, 2017, 09:33:47 PM »
I wouldn't be so pessimistic for the Africans oil producers... they will also enjoy renewable energy and maybe local gerillas won't have enough money anymore to buy weapons, corruption might be reduced...

Also in Ecuador, they also have a lot of solar potential, and I'm not sure how much normal people get something from the oil incomes.

numerobis

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« Reply #2463 on: October 08, 2017, 09:51:30 PM »
Parts of the US, Canada and Europe will be devastated by an oil crash — as happened in 2015 and in the mid-90s.

Oil wealth generally doesn’t help the native population of a place where oil is found, but it does feed a lot of people, and it helps fund government programs that help a lot of people. In particular it can help keep an incompetent government in power. Losing that source of income will cause trouble — along with, likely, some revolutions. We’re seeing just that in Venezuela right now, and we saw it in Alberta.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2464 on: October 09, 2017, 07:50:46 AM »
Yes, there will be regional pain when oil goes away but overall the US won't be hurt.

For Ecuador oil is about 40% of their export income.  And the country seems to be enjoying a healthy economy at this time. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2465 on: October 10, 2017, 09:49:28 PM »
U.S.:  Virginia seeks to expand network of electric vehicle charging stations
Virginia is seeking proposals to install more electric vehicle charging stations, and will pay for it with part of the $93 million the state received as part of the Volkswagen settlement over the car company’s emissions-cheating scandal.

The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality has issued a request for proposals to deploy what officials see as an interconnected, statewide, electric vehicle charging network, with $14 million in funding from the VW settlement to pay for it.

The state has a goal of reaching an electric vehicle adoption rate of 15 percent by 2027, or about 1 million electric vehicles on the road within the next decade. ...
https://wtop.com/business-finance/2017/10/virginia_expand_network_electric_vehicle_charging_stations/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2466 on: October 10, 2017, 10:06:18 PM »
The Dutch government confirms plan to ban new petrol and diesel cars by 2030
Today, the new Dutch government presented its detailed plan for the coming years and it includes making all new cars emission-free by 2030 – virtually banning petrol- and diesel-powered cars in favor of battery-powered vehicles.

The four coalition parties have been negotiating their plans since the election in March and now after over 200 days, they have finally released the plan they agreed upon. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/10/10/netherlands-dutch-ban-petrol-diesel-cars-2030-electric-cars/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2467 on: October 12, 2017, 03:46:10 PM »
Paris to only allow electric cars as soon as 2030 ahead of France’s 2040 goal
Paris already had to take drastic measures regarding transportation in order to reduce air pollution in the city. On some of the worst days for air pollution, they temporarily banned half the cars from driving and made public transport free. They also introduced car-free zones and they are giving fines drivers with older cars that don’t comply with emission regulations.

Despite these aggressive measures, city hall is not talking about a “ban” for the 2030 target, but it instead plans to put incentives in place to electrify its car fleet over the next decade to achieve the goal. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/10/12/paris-electric-cars-2030-ahead-of-france/amp/
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2468 on: October 12, 2017, 06:47:20 PM »
Hopefully more cities will ban ICEVs by 2030 (or even sooner).  That will create a lot of EV sales as people who live outside those cities but visit from time to time will have to consider if they want to switch to an EV with their next purchase.

This is a no cost subsidy for EVs.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2469 on: October 12, 2017, 06:52:42 PM »
Hopefully more cities will ban ICEVs by 2030 (or even sooner).  That will create a lot of EV sales as people who live outside those cities but visit from time to time will have to consider if they want to switch to an EV with their next purchase.

This is a no cost subsidy for EVs.

And/or, it will increase (EV) car-sharing activity for those city trips!  :)
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2470 on: October 12, 2017, 08:39:41 PM »
LG to support the production of 100,000 electric cars per year with new battery factory
LG is trying to position itself as an important new auto supplier for the transition to electric vehicles. The Chevy Bolt EV helped them recently since they manufacture several of the most important systems for the electric car, especially the battery pack through its LG Chem division.

Now the company announced that it will support the production of 100,000 electric cars per year with new battery factory in Poland.
When they announced the project for the new factory near Wroclaw, Poland in 2015, they were planning for 50,000 electric car battery packs per year.

Today, LG Chem said in a joint statement with the Polish development ministry (via Reuters) that it actually doubled the capacity of the plant to 100,000 battery packs – ~6 GWh of annual capacity.

That’s an over 50% increase in LG Chem’s battery capacity for electric vehicles for a total annual capacity of 280,000 EVs with its other factories: Ochang plant in South Korea, Holland plant in the United States, and Nanjing plant in China. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/10/12/lg-production-electric-cars-new-battery-factory/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2471 on: October 12, 2017, 09:56:11 PM »
VW plans large $1.7 billion investment to bring electric trucks and buses to market
“We plan to deliver the first nine fully electric trucks to our customers in Austria by the end of 2017 – including large supermarket chains, breweries and haulers. Electric drives and distribution are a match made in heaven: The drives are quiet, do not produce any emissions locally, and are a perfect fit for customers’ requirements. Equally, demand for these types of vehicles has been on the rise. We will be launching the first small set of vehicles on the market at the end of 2018.”

The company also confirmed plans for “series production of electric buses due to start before 2020.”
https://electrek.co/2017/10/12/vw-electric-truck-buses/
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2472 on: October 13, 2017, 12:45:50 AM »
IIRC LG Chem has multiple battery factory builds underway with the intent of having about 80% as much output, combined, as Tesla's Gigafactory by the time the GF is completed.

etienne

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2473 on: October 13, 2017, 07:37:57 AM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2474 on: October 14, 2017, 02:22:49 PM »
EV-magnet Norway is considering a tax on heavier EVs.  But it's a fraction of the tax imposed in Denmark and Hong Kong -- and less than Norway's own tax on ICE cars.

Understanding Norway’s new proposed ‘Tesla tax’ on electric cars
https://electrek.co/2017/10/13/tesla-tax-norway/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2475 on: October 14, 2017, 02:30:50 PM »
Shell buys NewMotion, Europe’s largest electric charging partner.  NewMotion's Level 2 chargers will nicely complement the fast chargers Shell is installing at some of its gas stations.  Is this an indication Shell realizes the shift away from gasoline is inevitable -- and coming soon?

Oil giant Shell accelerates electric vehicle effort with acquisition of network with over 30,000 chargers
https://electrek.co/2017/10/13/oil-giant-shell-electric-vehicle-chargers/
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ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2476 on: October 14, 2017, 04:18:19 PM »
Shell buys NewMotion, Europe’s largest electric charging partner.  NewMotion's Level 2 chargers will nicely complement the fast chargers Shell is installing at some of its gas stations.  Is this an indication Shell realizes the shift away from gasoline is inevitable -- and coming soon?

It is always unfortunate when instead of actually investing in growth and expanding offerings large companies just buy out others. This doesn't increase the amount of charging infrastructure available but artificially makes it look like Shell is expanding the charger network. It also decreases competition inevitably leading to higher prices and worse service.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2477 on: October 14, 2017, 07:53:31 PM »
Shell buys NewMotion, Europe’s largest electric charging partner.  NewMotion's Level 2 chargers will nicely complement the fast chargers Shell is installing at some of its gas stations.  Is this an indication Shell realizes the shift away from gasoline is inevitable -- and coming soon?

It is always unfortunate when instead of actually investing in growth and expanding offerings large companies just buy out others. This doesn't increase the amount of charging infrastructure available but artificially makes it look like Shell is expanding the charger network. It also decreases competition inevitably leading to higher prices and worse service.

Many of the commenters on the article were concerned that Shell's plan was to buy the charging network and then trash it, to keep favor with ICE cars.  I don't think one network will make or break EVs (except maybe Tesla's superchargers  :) ).  Let's hope this transaction encourages other networks -- and oil companies, and car makers! -- to step up their game.  More fast chargers, in particular, would likely do well.
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2478 on: October 14, 2017, 07:56:49 PM »
San Diego, California.  Covering the monthly payment for two Teslas by renting them out for car sharing, on seven days each month.

A couple paid for two Teslas by sharing them on the Airbnb for cars — here’s how they did it
http://www.businessinsider.com/turo-rental-used-to-pay-for-tesla-2017-10
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« Reply #2479 on: October 15, 2017, 12:04:54 AM »
Shell buys NewMotion, Europe’s largest electric charging partner.  NewMotion's Level 2 chargers will nicely complement the fast chargers Shell is installing at some of its gas stations.  Is this an indication Shell realizes the shift away from gasoline is inevitable -- and coming soon?

It is always unfortunate when instead of actually investing in growth and expanding offerings large companies just buy out others. This doesn't increase the amount of charging infrastructure available but artificially makes it look like Shell is expanding the charger network. It also decreases competition inevitably leading to higher prices and worse service.

Many of the commenters on the article were concerned that Shell's plan was to buy the charging network and then trash it, to keep favor with ICE cars.  I don't think one network will make or break EVs (except maybe Tesla's superchargers  :) ).  Let's hope this transaction encourages other networks -- and oil companies, and car makers! -- to step up their game.  More fast chargers, in particular, would likely do well.

Maybe it's innocent.  Perhaps Shell has decided that a future lucrative business is going to be rapid charging of EVs and they intend to be a major player.

Buying up smaller companies which already have installations creates quicker growth in the number of Shell chargers, gives them a larger presence, spreads costs of R&D and administration thinner, and might pick them up some ideas/knowhow that they wouldn't have generated in house.

It also takes potential competition out of the game.  There's a limit for the number of rapid chargers the world will need.  A smart company would saturate the market as rapidly as possible which would make it harder for other companies to enter.

etienne

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2480 on: October 15, 2017, 09:31:40 AM »
I am still wondering what the business model should be for car batteries loading. I wonder if it would not be possible for local administrations to put cheap low power car batteries loader for example on street lightning poles.
Fast loading is nice from a technical point of view, but is not so good for the grid.

numerobis

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« Reply #2481 on: October 15, 2017, 04:38:47 PM »
It’s so possible that it’s happening already in many places.

Montreal has EV charging stations around the city, you pay for them the same way as you pay for parking normally (actually they’re a bit cheaper than standard parking, but you’ll be ticketed if you park a gasoline car there). Victoria BC has free chargers in the parking structures — free as in free parking, which matters a whole lot more than the free electricity.

In the future when subsidy is no longer required, you can just increase the price to match the unserviced parking price.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2482 on: October 15, 2017, 06:00:15 PM »
I am still wondering what the business model should be for car batteries loading. I wonder if it would not be possible for local administrations to put cheap low power car batteries loader for example on street lightning poles.
Fast loading is nice from a technical point of view, but is not so good for the grid.

A natural solution to me would be utility companies installing 'pay to use' outlets along streets where people park.  And, perhaps, in workplace and apartment parking lots.  Let utilities sell electricity directly to drivers.

Give cars and outlets the ability to communicate with each other once the cord is plugged in.  The car would communicate the state of charge and how much electricity the driver wants to purchase within what time frame.  The system would identify the car based on information from the car and charge the driver's account.
---

Outlets should have the ability to detect a vehicle parked in their space but not plugged in.  And notify the parking police to deal with the offender.  Ticket and/or tow.
---

If outlets are owned by utilities then drivers who sign up for the plan can allow their vehicles to be used as dispatchable loads in exchange for a lower rate.  In a driver's routine is to park at work at 7:45 am and plug in for at least 8 hours or to park at night by 7:00 pm for normally 12  hours and needs about 3  hours a day of charging that creates a lot of opportunity for utilities to determine the exact hours of charge. 

The ability to time-shift is likely to be very valuable to utilities.  Those who allow utilities to determine charge time should receive very low electricity rates.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2483 on: October 15, 2017, 09:34:41 PM »
Here's a video about a charger that is meant to allow you to charge the car with only the surplus electricity you are generating. THeir charger is called Zappi.



They also have a device to divert surplus electric to space or water heating called Eddi.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2484 on: October 15, 2017, 11:40:34 PM »
Here's a video about a charger that is meant to allow you to charge the car with only the surplus electricity you are generating. THeir charger is called Zappi.



They also have a device to divert surplus electric to space or water heating called Eddi.

My inverter has programmable relays that will do that.  Just set them to switch to another function such as water heating when the batteries are full.  And my inverter is about 15 years old so I would think they would be pretty much a universal feature.

If you've got hydro then you have to have a way to dump surplus electricity.  A friend uses a simple space heater as his electricity dump once the batteries are full and water tank heated. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2485 on: October 16, 2017, 10:06:57 PM »
Tesla Model 3 “production hell” update:

Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch said that he met with Tesla last week, along with other investors, and he wrote in a note to clients today (via Barron’s):

“Tesla indicated that all the production equipment for Model 3 was installed and working and that all vehicles were moving through the manufacturing line. We understand the delayed ramp is due to a small number of suppliers failing to deliver on time.”

He added that “at least one of those suppliers has been fired and replaced by insourcing.” ...

As Musk has said, production can only proceed as fast as its slowest supplier....

Tesla Model 3 production bottlenecks are due to suppliers, says Oppenheimer after meeting with management
https://electrek.co/2017/10/16/tesla-model-3-production-bottlenecks-suppliers-oppenheimer-meeting-management/

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2486 on: October 17, 2017, 06:15:43 PM »
Watching the slow death of hybrids: Volvo announces the first car in their Polestar performance brand will be a hybrid -- but all future cars of that division will be fully electric.

Volvo’s Polestar unveils performance electric car, announces new ‘Tesla Model 3 competitor’
https://electrek.co/2017/10/17/volvo-polestar-unveils-performance-electric-car-tesla-model-3-competitor/
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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2487 on: October 17, 2017, 07:21:39 PM »
This transfer to EV's appears to be moving much faster than I believed possible.


It's very welcome, but there is a mountain of assets whose value will rapidly approach 0.
As gerontocrat and others have noted, many nations are very dependent on fossil fuels to make payments on their debt. If When these debts go unpaid, and become unpayable, will those that made the loans be able to keep up with their obligations?
Where and how will the downward cascade end?


Entities that profit from auto maintenance will be hard hit, as will most of the manufacturers, and their suppliers.
The companies that own gas stations will see their profits and asset values crash, just as large infrastructure outlays become essential.
Should an automobile charging station build facilities to entertain their stranded clientele, or should they assume that self driving cars are coming and host zero frills chargers.


None of us have much sympathy for big oil, but they do employ millions. Installing renewables will employ some, but eventually those jobs die and only the maintenance guy's have steady work. I think they tried some of these solutions in Flint.


EV's good, disruption necessary, but it could really hurt.
Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2488 on: October 17, 2017, 07:52:50 PM »
The transition off fossil fuels will harm many but put that in perspective.

 If we allow extreme climate change we badly hurt every human on the planet.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2489 on: October 17, 2017, 08:06:29 PM »
The transition off fossil fuels will harm many but put that in perspective.

 If we allow extreme climate change we badly hurt every human on the planet.


Agreed, I'd just hate to see our children facing the horrors of run away climate change from a soup kitchen in Flint. I don't see a way forward that doesn't include a lot of pain for a lot of people.
I don't think we'll be remembered with fondness.


Terry

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2490 on: October 18, 2017, 12:22:17 AM »
But clean energy jobs will grow quickly. Solar and wind installation, for example.  Other new jobs will be created as we come to accept the need to act:  Efficiency updates for homes and buildings.  Coastal hardening and retreat.  Infrastructure upgrades.  Oilfield rehabilitation. Tree planting.  Urban farming.  Health care.  Clean energy education.  There will be plenty of jobs -- just different than what we think of today!


Edit:  and recycling dead ICE cars!  ;D
« Last Edit: October 18, 2017, 12:47:18 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2491 on: October 18, 2017, 12:46:13 AM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2492 on: October 18, 2017, 01:47:44 AM »
Fully-self-driving technology can't come soon enough.

Smartphones Are Killing Americans, But Nobody’s Counting
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-10-17/smartphones-are-killing-americans-but-nobody-s-counting
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2493 on: October 18, 2017, 04:34:37 AM »
On October 2 GM announced that by 2025 all of its cars will be electrics.  (Some may be FCEVs, but don't bet on that.)

This marks a very major turning point.  If GM has decided that it's all over for ICEVs then other car manufacturers can't be very far behind.  (Volvo has already announced 100% electric but they are a smaller player.)

Now the rush should be on to see who can get the most of the EV market before GM grabs a huge hunk.

(And before you're tempted to run down GM, remember, their Volt is a very good car.  And GM's overall quality seems to be up over the last few years under Mary Barra's leadership.)

ETA:  The source for GM going 100% EV by 2025 may have been mistaken.  It looks like GM will go 100% EV in China, not worldwide.

But, still.  If GM does develop a range of EVs for China then they will be well positioned to sell more EVs in the western world.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2017, 10:34:48 PM by Bob Wallace »

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2494 on: October 18, 2017, 03:05:48 PM »
But clean energy jobs will grow quickly. Solar and wind installation, for example.  Other new jobs will be created as we come to accept the need to act:  Efficiency updates for homes and buildings.  Coastal hardening and retreat.  Infrastructure upgrades.  Oilfield rehabilitation. Tree planting.  Urban farming.  Health care.  Clean energy education.  There will be plenty of jobs -- just different than what we think of today!


Edit:  and recycling dead ICE cars!  ;D
Having work that needs to be done is one thing. Being able to afford to pay for it is what concerns me.
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2495 on: October 21, 2017, 12:44:33 AM »
Good news, bad news:  There's a high demand for Bolt EV (Ampera E) in Europe, but a low supply.  Possible reason:  GM really wants to sell them in the U.S., to get ZEV credits it needs to keep selling its ICE cars.

Opel asks Norwegian dealers to stop taking orders for Bolt EVs (Ampera E) as supply can’t match demand
The situation around the availability of the Chevy Bolt EV in Europe, where it is sold as the Opel Ampera E, has been even more difficult than in the US.  So much so that Opel has now asked its Norwegian dealers to stop taking orders for the new all-electric vehicle as supply can’t match demand.

The situation is especially murky since GM sold Opel and all of its European operations to the PSA Group.  But as part of the deal, GM was to keep supplying Opel with Bolt EVs to be sold in Europe as the ‘Ampera E’.

Apparently, that supply has been nowhere near the level of the demand for the vehicle in Europe and especially in Norway.  Reports came out this week that Opel was ordering a ‘order stoppage’ for the vehicle which prompted rumors that the vehicle wouldn’t be available anymore.

We reached out to the company and Opel spokesperson Christopher Rux responded that they have indeed “suspended taking new orders for the Ampera-e,” but he claims that it is “to focus first on satisfying customers with existing contracts and who are waiting for their cars.”

He says that “nearly 1,000 Ampera-E vehicles” have been delivered in Europe so far, with most of them in Norway, but deliveries have also started in Germany, Switzerland, and Netherlands.

On the other hand, Rux confirmed that almost 5,000 people have placed orders for the electric car in Norway alone.

Rux couldn’t say when those people could expect to get their vehicles – only saying that they “will continue to serve the demand as effectively as possible.” ...
  https://electrek.co/2017/10/20/chevy-bolt-ev-opel-norwegian-dealers-stop-taking-orders/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2496 on: October 21, 2017, 12:58:07 AM »
With so many fewer parts than ICE cars, EVs are expected to have to have fewer things go wrong -- with the drive train, anyway. ;) (That's a big problem for traditional car dealers, who make about 50% of their profits from parts and service.)

EV simplicity wins: Consumer Reports names new Bolt most reliable car in Chevy’s line
It’s often expected for new models to receive low reliability ratings, but Chevy has bucked that trend with the Bolt.  In Consumer Reports’ new reliability ratings released yesterday, while Chevy as an overall brand scored relatively low (18th place), the Bolt came in as the most reliable car the manufacturer sells, out of 15 models (the highest number of models of any manufacturer ranked by CR). ...
https://electrek.co/2017/10/20/bolt-reliable-chevy/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2497 on: October 23, 2017, 02:27:15 AM »
U.S.:  United Auto Workers (UAW) wakes up to job threat posed by electric cars, as German unions have already
... What do fewer components and less specialization per automaker potentially mean? Probably fewer jobs in the auto industry.

The United Auto Workers union recently responded to Ford's latest strategy, which includes a $14 billion reduction in costs and a shift in capital investment to trucks and SUVs—and also to electric cars.

Specifically, new Ford CEO Jim Hackett called for a 30-percent reduction in the "hours per unit" to assemble electric cars.  Fewer hours of work means a smaller total of workers needed for production. The UAW fears Ford could eliminate thousands of production jobs to cut costs, according to Reuters.

“We’ve been doing our due diligence to find out how much it (electrification) means to us,” said UAW Vice President Jimmy Settles, head of the union’s Ford department.  He said the UAW and Ford agreed it's best that discussions on that topic include both parties in the years to come.

Daimler, parent company of Mercedes-Benz, faced a similar potential consequence last year.  German labor leaders insisted Daimler must build its own electric-car components at a large scale, rather than outsource the non-specialized work, to save German jobs.

At the time, Michael Brecht, Daimler works council chief, said the number of workers required to build internal-combustion engines is "roughly tenfold" the amount required for electric motors.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1113322_uaw-wakes-up-to-job-threat-posed-by-electric-cars-as-german-unions-have-already
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2498 on: October 23, 2017, 04:03:17 PM »
Tesla opens new largest Supercharger station in the world -- in China
Tesla is adding a ton of stations to its Supercharger network lately in an attempt to reach its goal to have over 10,000 Superchargers online by the end of the year.

We now learn that the automaker just brought online a single new station in Shanghai with 50 Superchargers – becoming the largest Supercharger station in the world. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/10/23/tesla-opens-largest-supercharger-station-world/
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numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2499 on: October 23, 2017, 04:59:41 PM »
U.S.:  United Auto Workers (UAW) wakes up to job threat posed by electric cars, as German unions have already

Oh, the GOP is going to be all conflicted with that. On the one hand, EVs mean lower profits for their oil buddies, or (among the true believers), a win for the evil communist islamic atheist liberals. On the other hand, EVs mean bad news for the unions.