Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

[Buddy]

RE Tony Seba's presentation..... You can see why 2025 as the last year that ICE passenger cars are sold in the US doesn't seem so far fetched.  I think it is very doable...and the "S curve" will indeed be pushing straight up.

[numerobis]

I think it's far-fetched. RIM only stopped making phones only a few months ago, despite the iPhone coming out ten years ago.

[Sebastian Jones]

I think it's far-fetched. RIM only stopped making phones only a few months ago, despite the iPhone coming out ten years ago.

One can still buy landline phones, both touch tone and even rotary if you really want to make a retro statement. I imagine that ICE vehicles will linger similarly, but that they will be essentially irrelevant.
Either way, 10 years most definitely warrants the title of disruption!

[Buddy]

Sebastian:

BIG difference between the dollars needed to manufacture a land line phone...and the dollars needed for a major manufacturer to pump out cars.

I have NO DOUBT that there will be "boutique" manufacturers of ICE vehicles for some time (as long as it is legal and there are still gas stations).

But I feel very comfortable with my belief that no MAJOR car manufacturer will be selling an ICE passenger car in the US AFTER the end of 2025.  And although I had NOT seen the video clip above until this weekend.... my conclusion is for the same reason:  It won't make economic sense to buy an ICE passenger vehicle by the end of 2025. 

Who is going to want to buy an inferior car...that costs more to buy, more to operate, more to maintain, and will have almost no residual value?

I think the market for ICE vehicles will all but dissapear except for "boutique" players.

[numerobis]

The US car makers survived when Toyota and Honda showed up with cars that were better, cost less to buy, and were cheaper to operate and maintain.

[Bob Wallace]

no MAJOR car manufacturer will be selling an ICE passenger car in the US AFTER the end of 2025.

That would require a very rapid change in thinking for almost all new car buyers.  I don't think the switch to EVs will start on a serious level for another 2 to 4 years.  And a significant portion of the market will be late adopters.

[Shared Humanity]

EV production in the U.S. increased an impressive 40% year over year for the 1st 6 months of 2017. It has now captured 1.07% of the new car market in the U.S. The elimination of ICE sales by 2025 would require charging stations blanketing the country, every bit as omnipresent as gas stations are today. This will simply not happen.

[TerryM]

EV production in the U.S. increased an impressive 40% year over year for the 1st 6 months of 2017. It has now captured 1.07% of the new car market in the U.S. The elimination of ICE sales by 2025 would require charging stations blanketing the country, every bit as omnipresent as gas stations are today. This will simply not happen.

Because of charging times, far more charging stations will be required than gas pumps, unless home/apartment charging becomes the norm.
Terry

[Alexander555]

Maybe an airbnb for charging. But the amount is small. If you have to add 10% to the charge ,it's only a few bucks. And how much would the hardware cost ?

[Bob Wallace]

The elimination of ICE sales by 2025 would require charging stations blanketing the country, every bit as omnipresent as gas stations are today. This will simply not happen.

Not at all.  It's very likely that well more than 90% of all charging will be done when the car is parked, either at home or at work/school.  Over 50% of all US drivers already have the ability to charge at home and utilities are starting to install outlets in workplace and apartment parking lots.

Rapid chargers will be needed only for cars going further than their battery range in a day.  Only a small percentage of all drivers drive more than 250 miles on the same day.

[Bob Wallace]

Maybe an airbnb for charging. But the amount is small. If you have to add 10% to the charge ,it's only a few bucks. And how much would the hardware cost ?

The average cost of having a 220 volt outlet for an electric dryer installed is about $250.  (Electrician, parts and permit.)

If someone showed up at your airbnb with a Tesla S they could draw from 3.7 to 17.2 kW per hour, depending on their car's internal charger.  Worst case, you get a P100 that's down to 5% charge and it's got a powerful enough charger to fill it up to 100%.  95 kWh + 10% battery charging loss = 104.5 kWh.  At the national average of 11 cents per kWh that's $11.50.

[Shared Humanity]

The elimination of ICE sales by 2025 would require charging stations blanketing the country, every bit as omnipresent as gas stations are today. This will simply not happen.

Not at all.  It's very likely that well more than 90% of all charging will be done when the car is parked, either at home or at work/school.  Over 50% of all US drivers already have the ability to charge at home and utilities are starting to install outlets in workplace and apartment parking lots.

Rapid chargers will be needed only for cars going further than their battery range in a day.  Only a small percentage of all drivers drive more than 250 miles on the same day.

Makes sense. Still can't see ICE vehicle sales eliminated by 2025 but I am, perhaps, mistaken. It takes 2-3 years to bring a newly designed auto to market, longer if the design is completely new, not drawing on past design concepts. EV's are just such a car.

[Bob Wallace]

I agree, 2025 is wishful thinking.  But we might see an almost lack of new ICEV sales by 2030.  At least an almost cessation of new ICEV manufacturing. 

I think we'll see most car companies ready to sell a long range EV by 2020.  Production levels may be limited by battery supply.  By 2025 I expect supply ability problems will be solved, most people will understand the advantages of EV, and EVs will be as cheap or cheaper to purchase as ICEVs.

But there will be slow to adopt people in the system.  "Gasoline was good enough for my Daddy.  It's good enough for me"  types.  They'll likely purchase their last ICEV between 2025 and 2030. 

I'd be thrilled with 2025 but it sounds too optimistic for my taste.

[TerryM]

What's left of the Arctic ice by 2030? How many Puerto Rico events and how many climate refugees by then? Does the ESAS still cap the locked in methane?


Are we planning to lock the barn well after the horse has bolted?
Terry

[oren]

2030 I can believe as well, 2025 no way.

[Bob Wallace]

What's left of the Arctic ice by 2030? How many Puerto Rico events and how many climate refugees by then? Does the ESAS still cap the locked in methane?


Are we planning to lock the barn well after the horse has bolted?
Terry

The Arctic will probably still be freezing over, at least mostly, in the winter.  Seal levels will have risen but Florida won't be under water.  Yet.

Can you think of a time when humans closed the barn door before the horses got out?  Don't we almost always play catch up?

[TerryM]

Maybe an airbnb for charging. But the amount is small. If you have to add 10% to the charge ,it's only a few bucks. And how much would the hardware cost ?

The average cost of having a 220 volt outlet for an electric dryer installed is about $250.  (Electrician, parts and permit.)

If someone showed up at your airbnb with a Tesla S they could draw from 3.7 to 17.2 kW per hour, depending on their car's internal charger.  Worst case, you get a P100 that's down to 5% charge and it's got a powerful enough charger to fill it up to 100%.  95 kWh + 10% battery charging loss = 104.5 kWh.  At the national average of 11 cents per kWh that's $11.50.

A typical 30 amp dryer circuit will allow a maximum of 7.2 kW through the circuit. Expand on this and you probably need to upgrade your home's electrical service. If your neighbors also switch to EV's, the whole neighborhood may need to be re-wired.
Brownouts ruin A/Cs, refrigerators, and TVs, and can cause fires. You don't want to overload your breaker panel.
Terry

[Buddy]

Two things to note:

1). There will likely be HYBRIDS for some time after 2025.  Maybe decades....

2). We still haven't hit the "oh shit" period when man figures out just how deep he has been "digging" all these decades.  We're getting a LOT closer to that time.

My "prediction" regarding 2025 does NOT take into account #2 above.  But it IS something that would certainly give mankind a push.

Also....this is PASSENGER CARS IN THE US.  Not trucks...and not other countries.

By the way.... this isn't what I WANT to happen... it is what I believe will happen BASED ON THE ECONOMICS of buying an ice car by the end of 2025.

But I like the skepticism of the group.  That's healthy. 😊

[Bob Wallace]

Maybe an airbnb for charging. But the amount is small. If you have to add 10% to the charge ,it's only a few bucks. And how much would the hardware cost ?

The average cost of having a 220 volt outlet for an electric dryer installed is about $250.  (Electrician, parts and permit.)

If someone showed up at your airbnb with a Tesla S they could draw from 3.7 to 17.2 kW per hour, depending on their car's internal charger.  Worst case, you get a P100 that's down to 5% charge and it's got a powerful enough charger to fill it up to 100%.  95 kWh + 10% battery charging loss = 104.5 kWh.  At the national average of 11 cents per kWh that's $11.50.

A typical 30 amp dryer circuit will allow a maximum of 7.2 kW through the circuit. Expand on this and you probably need to upgrade your home's electrical service. If your neighbors also switch to EV's, the whole neighborhood may need to be re-wired.
Brownouts ruin A/Cs, refrigerators, and TVs, and can cause fires. You don't want to overload your breaker panel.
Terry

Most US houses now have 200 amp services.  That's plenty.

There will be zero need to rewire neighborhoods.  Grid wiring will be capable of supplying each house with it's maximum draw (based on size of service).

 It may be necessary to swap neighborhood transformers out sooner than expected if there are enough EVs being charged late at night so that the transformer is not allowed to cool off.  The best move would be for utilities to upsize transformers as the late night load increases in specific neighborhoods and use those smaller transformers in neighborhoods with fewer EVs.

I think people tend to install 50 amp breakers for EV charging.  Hardware cost difference for a 50 amp breaker and 30 amp breaker is small money.  Labor and permits cost the same.

[Bob Wallace]

1). There will likely be HYBRIDS for some time after 2025.  Maybe decades....

Neither hybrids or plug-in hybrids are likely to be manufactured much longer.

EVs will be cheaper to manufacture than PHEVs  and hybrids.  We may have already reached that point.

[Buddy]

RE hybrids....there are two buyers that I can see:

1). The tail end late adopters (some people still have a land line)

2). People who have access to old infrastructure such as in farming/ranching communities where they may still be using gasoline for other vehicles.

I have no real read on how long hybrids will be around.  Just saying that they will fill the void for some period of time AFTER ICE ONLY VEHICLES are no longer around.

Seven years...eleven months and counting. 😳

[numerobis]

Also....this is PASSENGER CARS IN THE US.  Not trucks...and not other countries.

If you said trucks in the US, I'd think you might be right.

If you said passenger cars in China, I'd also think so.

Passenger cars in the US I suspect will be the last to switch.

[numerobis]

The last full-year figures I have show California new vehicle registrations at 40,000 electric cars in 2016, out of about 2 million total cars. There's a nearly equal number of plug-in hybrids, which I'm counting as gasoline-powered in my initial analysis, and there's a large number of other hybrids which I also count as gasoline-powered.
http://www.cncda.org/CMS/Pubs/CA%20Auto%20Outlook%201Q%202017.pdf

Assuming 30% annual growth, by 2025 we get to 25% of new cars are fully-electric; in 2030 we sell the last car with an ICE. But in that year, we still only have about 1 car in 6 being electric; it takes several years yet to retire them all.

Assuming 40% annual growth, 2027 is the last year that gasoline-powered or hybrid cars are sold. Again, 1/6 cars are electric in that year.

I need to assume 50% annual growth to make it be 2025. With this faster growth rate, only 1/10 cars are electric when we sell the last gasoline-powered car.

So that's what it would take for Buddy’s prediction to come through in California, which has high adoption rate already compared to the rest of the US.

It's not 100% impossible. It seems far from inevitable.

[numerobis]

Speaking of California:

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/01/california-gov-wants-rebates-to-put-5-million-electric-cars-on-roads-by-2030

California is announcing an "ambitious" plan to have 5 million EVs on the road by 2030, replacing a prior plan to have 1.5 million by 2025. The two figures amount to a 30% annual growth rate. That should be quite achievable:

Still, last week's Executive Order indicated that state government thinks California could realistically grow its EV fleet from 350,000 currently to 5 million in just 12 years because the previous six years saw a 1300-percent increase in the number of zero-emissions vehicles in the state.

In the same story: Colorado announced plans to have 1 million by 2030 (slightly more ambitious per capita) and has decided it needs to develop fast-charging stations to support long-distance travel.

[sidd]

"Grid wiring will be capable of supplying each house with it's maximum draw (based on size of service)."

The word "will" is important. Someday they may build out the grid. But until they do, problems exist for largescale residential EV charging absent substantial onsite generation.

Right now out the window (in a rural area, USA) I can see a transformer sized for 300A 240 V (72 KW) supplying two residences each with 200A main breaker. The transformer can probably supply 100KW but there is a 5A fuse/switch upstream on the incoming 14.4KV distribution. So no way both houses can suck 200A at the same time. I know urban locations that have 10 feeds of 60A residential service hanging off one 300A transformer. Ouch. And lets not even talk about India, where illegal connections are rampant and the grid goes to its knees routinely.

But of course, onsite storage and generation are coming very fast. Solar+battery+EV is going to be even more attractive as the years pass.

Love it. Bring it on.

sidd

[Bob Wallace]

Wireless EV charging is just as efficient — or more efficient — than plugging in. Most people think they have to plug in an electric car to get the most efficient charging possible, but that’s not true. No charging method is 100% efficient. Conventional chargers are typically 88% to 95% efficient. Wireless charging is right in the middle of that range at 90% to 93% efficiency. That means it does as good a job of transferring electricity from the charger to a car’s battery as most conventional charging equipment that uses a cord.

Most wireless charging equipment is Level 2, meaning it operates on 220–240 volts. Whether a Level 2 charging station is wireless or wired has no bearing on the speed of the charging process.

---

Wireless charging will be an essential part of the electric car revolution and play a vital role in the development of autonomous cars. While most of the attention today is on sensors, mapping, and machine learning, wireless charging is an equally important technology.

Let’s face it, fleets of robotaxis will not have drivers to plug them in. In the autonomous future, cars will simply park themselves in spots outfitted with wireless charging stations. After charging, they will head off on their next ride-hailing journey or find a place to park in peace and quiet reflection until needed, freeing up the wireless charging equipment for the next car.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/01/28/wireless-charging-myths-exploded-witricity-ceo/

[Bob Wallace]

"Grid wiring will be capable of supplying each house with it's maximum draw (based on size of service)."

The word "will" is important. Someday they may build out the grid. But until they do, problems exist for largescale residential EV charging absent substantial onsite generation.

Right now out the window (in a rural area, USA) I can see a transformer sized for 300A 240 V (72 KW) supplying two residences each with 200A main breaker. The transformer can probably supply 100KW but there is a 5A fuse/switch upstream on the incoming 14.4KV distribution. So no way both houses can suck 200A at the same time. I know urban locations that have 10 feeds of 60A residential service hanging off one 300A transformer. Ouch. And lets not even talk about India, where illegal connections are rampant and the grid goes to its knees routinely.

But of course, onsite storage and generation are coming very fast. Solar+battery+EV is going to be even more attractive as the years pass.

Love it. Bring it on.

sidd

Transformer that provides 300 amp of 240 vac for two houses.  150 amps each.  A Tesla with the highest capacity internal charger sucks less than 18 amps.  Two EVs in each of the two houses = a max of 72 amps, and what are the odds of two large draw chargers in each house?

That still leaves a lot of power to run each house.  And, like I said, at some point transformers may need to be upgraded.

If poorly serviced apartments start adding charge outlets in their parking lots transformers will need to be upsized.

But we are not talking about stringing new wire from the point of generation to the point of use.

And let's not talk about India.  That's different.

[sidd]

India produces 14 million vehicles or so per year, a substantial market. I feel that market is relevant, but those who wish to avoid this discussion are, as always, free to ignore.

sidd

[Bob Wallace]

We can't make a meaningful comparison between India and the US.

[Jim Hunt]

Here in the UK the Government intends to insist upon the installation of "smart" charging points in an attempt to avoid some of the problems referred to above:

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/2017-2019/0112/cbill_2017-20190112_en_2.htm#pt2-pb2-l1g12

[Jim Hunt]

India produces 14 million vehicles or so per year, a substantial market. I feel that market is relevant.

Agreed

[Bob Wallace]

India produces 14 million vehicles or so per year, a substantial market. I feel that market is relevant.

Agreed

The Indian car market is very relevant.  And India is working toward 100% EVs.  But India has severe grid problems. 

[sidd]

Of the 14 million vehicle number for india, a large proportion is 2 and 3 wheeled. Charging requirements will be smaller, but the grid is weak. But, then, the sun there is strong outside monsoon season ...

sidd

[Sleepy]

So that's what it would take for Sleepy's prediction to come through in California

This is my only prediction.

[numerobis]

Ack, sorry, mixed you up with Buddy!

[Sigmetnow]

Don’t forget “smart charging.”  If you have a smart conection to the utility, their computers could tell each car when to charge during the overnight hours, so they don’t strain local circuits.  Worst case, you need to come to an agreement with your neighbor on what hours each of you will typically charge.

[Jim Hunt]

Don’t forget “smart charging.”

I haven't. Neither have the UK Government:

https://twitter.com/V2gUK/status/958226521352699905

[BenB]

EVs seem to be building real momentum among traditional car manufacturers.
 This time it's the laggard Mercedes that is setting in motion plans to launch 50 electrified vehicles over the next 4-5 years:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-daimler-strategy-investors/mercedes-benz-to-offer-electric-option-for-every-car-by-2022-idUSKCN1BM0TL

[Jim Hunt]

EVs seem to be building real momentum

The latest announcement from the UK in the V2G arena:

https://twitter.com/V2gUK/status/958262810391339008

Nissan and its partners welcome the announcement by Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy minister Richard Harrington to award £9.8m for a Vehicle-to-Grid demonstrator project.

The project foundation is for a large-scale demonstrator targeting 1000 Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) installations that will evaluate a commercial offer to electric vehicle fleet customers. The chargers will be controlled by an aggregator and data will be collected to understand the technical characteristics of vehicle to grid charging for both the vehicles and the electricity networks.

[Sigmetnow]

EVs seem to be building real momentum among traditional car manufacturers.
 This time it's the laggard Mercedes that is setting in motion plans to launch 50 electrified vehicles over the next 4-5 years:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-daimler-strategy-investors/mercedes-benz-to-offer-electric-option-for-every-car-by-2022-idUSKCN1BM0TL

This is, of course, steps in the right direction.  However, “electrified,” to the major manufacturers, often means hybrid for many models, not full electric, so they still have quite a ways to go.

Mercedes is also investing heavily in battery production, which is great, but they mean “battery assembly” — they are still dependent on other suppliers for the battery cells.

Mercedes-Benz unveils aggressive electric vehicle production plan, 6 factories and a ‘global battery network’
https://electrek.co/2018/01/29/mercedes-benz-electric-vehicle-production-global-battery-network/

[BenB]

Sure, electrified isn't necessarily fully electric, but depending on how the car is used, it can still make a big difference. And until batteries become significantly lighter and smaller, I don't think that fully electric is the right option for everyone. If you make one long trip a year (beyond even the range of even a Tesla/Bolt), and the rest of the year your daily mileage is 20-30 miles, a PHEV may be the logical choice. And for people who are concerned that EVs have insufficient range, PHEVs make great transition cars. After driving one for a while, many people discover that they use the petrol engine much less than expected, and go for an all-electric with better range next time around.

On batteries, I'm not sure that manufacturing your own ones is that important. There are advantages to both approaches. Buying third party batteries is more flexible in terms of scaling up and down - you just buy more or fewer batteries, depending on demand, but obviously at a time like now, with global shortages of EV batteries, having your own production is an advantage. Probably that situation won't last for long, though.

Either way, I just think it's amazing the number of new electrified models being announced recently, whether fully EV, PHEV or hybrid. It will take a year or two until most of them hit our streets, but by 2020 there should be far more EVs available than at present. Which has to be a good thing.

[Buddy]

Solid state battery electric cars could have over 600 mile range by 2020 - 2024

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/01/solid-state-battery-electric-cars-could-have-over-600-mile-range-in-2020-2024.html

Fisker has already moved UP their date from 2023/2024....to 2020.  Then there is Dyson who is shooting for 2020....and Toyota that is shooting for 2020.  And there are others as well.

I hope they don't move too fast.....otherwise there won't be any need for new ICE passenger cars in the US by the end of 2025. 

[Sigmetnow]

The charger that comes to you!

Pro: no ICEing of charger spaces.
Con: only 48kWh capacity

BP becomes latest oil giant to invest in electric vehicle charging
https://electrek.co/2018/01/30/bp-oil-giant-invest-electric-vehicle-charging/

[Sigmetnow]

   Because electric companies don’t provide enough financial kickbacks?

U.S.:  GM suggests Congress fund EV charging, Toyota asks for hydrogen fueling support

...
The market requires "continued partnership between electric utilities, station operators, vehicle manufacturers, and support by federal, state and municipal government to establish charging stations at the same scale as the 168,000+ gas stations across the country," Gross said.

Notably missing from her remarks were any commitment by GM to contribute any funds toward those much-need charging stations.

That's not much of a surprise, as GM has consistently said for two years or more that it does not intend to spend its own money on providing charging infrastructure for the electric cars it sells.

That stands in contrast to makers that include BMW, Nissan, and Volkswagen, which have funded various U.S. initiatives to expand public charging along travel corridors, in public parks, and in their franchised dealerships.

Significant new electric-car charging infrastructure will also come from the Electrify America initiative, funded to the tune of $2 billion over 10 years by Volkswagen as part of its diesel emission scandal settlement.
...

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1115048_gm-urges-congress-to-fund-ev-charging-toyota-asks-for-hydrogen-fueling-support

[Sigmetnow]

Waymo is adding ‘thousands’ of Pacifica plug-in hybrid vans to its self-driving fleet
https://electrek.co/2018/01/30/waymo-pacifica-plug-in-hybrid-vans-self-driving-fleet/

Bur don’t expect them to be sold to the general public.  “The Cruise AV ... features 21 radar sensors, 16 cameras and 5 lidar units, and runs on GM's own self-driving software.” 
Expensive!

https://www.motorauthority.com/news/1114751_gms-latest-self-driving-car-has-no-steering-wheel-or-pedals

[Buddy]

Jaguar electric SUV coming to market March 1st....

https://www.yahoo.com/tech/pre-orders-jaguar-electric-suv-181500016.html

[Sigmetnow]

There’s little reason to worry whether Tesla can raise any money it needs to progress in its mission.  A recent announcement of an unofficial Tesla bond offering backed by car leases was oversubscribed by 14 times!

When It Comes to Tesla Car Bonds, Buyers Simply Can't Get Enough
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/comes-tesla-car-bonds-buyers-171958045.html

[Sigmetnow]

VW plans to produce 1,500 electric cars per day at its Zwickau factory

That would be one of the most ambitious electric vehicle production goals in the world – equal to Tesla’s planned volume production of the Model 3 at the Fremont factory in California.

It would also be a significant development for the region since the Zwickau factory reportedly currently has a daily production rate of 1,350 cars. ...

https://electrek.co/2018/01/31/vw-electric-car-production-zwickau-factory/

[numerobis]

There’s little reason to worry whether Tesla can raise any money it needs to progress in its mission.  A recent announcement of an unofficial Tesla bond offering backed by car leases was oversubscribed by 14 times!

When It Comes to Tesla Car Bonds, Buyers Simply Can't Get Enough
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/comes-tesla-car-bonds-buyers-171958045.html

Yeah. I kept seeing short-sellers carefully analyzing Tesla's financial statements and declaring "they're going to need to raise more money soon, stock is going to collapse."

That's what finally pushed me to buy. The arguments for all made sense; the arguments against were lunatic.

[Bob Wallace]

Just read the headline.   It said that Tesla short sellers lost $1 billion in 2017.