Author Topic: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and.... (Read 1508079 times)

numerobis · « **Reply #3300 on:** February 01, 2018, 09:14:17 PM »

In 2018. Meaning in one month.

But it's mark-to-market losses. They won't actually be hurting until they realize their losses.

Tor Bejnar · « **Reply #3301 on:** February 01, 2018, 09:18:09 PM »

to put some accurate flesh on Bob's "Just read the headline."

Quote

... Yet Tesla's stock performance has punished these short sellers: "S3 Partners calculate that Tesla short sellers have a mark-to-market loss of around $1.1 billion since the start of the year... [and] for 2017, short sellers had a mark-to-market loss on Tesla of $3.57 billion, on an average short position of $9.42 billion, S3 Partners said." ...

That's $1.1 billion between January 1, 2018 and January 22, 2018. There was $3.57 billion in 'short selling' losses in 2017. (and thanks for the clarification, numerobis)

numerobis · « **Reply #3302 on:** February 01, 2018, 09:35:51 PM »

I see plenty of short-sellers on SeekingAlpha talking about how they're fine because the stock crash is just right around the corner.

Bob Wallace · « **Reply #3303 on:** February 02, 2018, 12:23:36 AM »

Quote from: Tor Bejnar on February 01, 2018, 09:18:09 PM

to put some accurate flesh on Bob's "Just read the headline."

Quote
... Yet Tesla's stock performance has punished these short sellers: "S3 Partners calculate that Tesla short sellers have a mark-to-market loss of around $1.1 billion since the start of the year... [and] for 2017, short sellers had a mark-to-market loss on Tesla of $3.57 billion, on an average short position of $9.42 billion, S3 Partners said." ...

That's $1.1 billion between January 1, 2018 and January 22, 2018. There was $3.57 billion in 'short selling' losses in 2017. (and thanks for the clarification, numerobis)

Memory is one of the first things to go....

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3304 on:** February 02, 2018, 12:55:49 AM »

A first look at January EV sales in the U.S. Down dramatically from December — but that happens every year. About on par with Jan 2017, except Tesla Model 3 volumes continue to ramp.

These numbers are from Inside EVs, and are either wildly inaccurate or pretty close, depending on whom you read. Tesla doesn’t give monthly volumes, as a rule, just quarterly global ones, but we’ll probably get good numbers from their Q4 conference call on Feb 7.

GM’s Chevy Bolt EV sales plunge month-to-month, slightly up year-over-year
https://electrek.co/2018/02/01/gm-chevy-bolt-ev-quarterly-sales-plunge/

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

http://ir.tesla.com/events.cfm

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3305 on:** February 02, 2018, 09:04:14 PM »

Tesla “is working with some of its biggest Tesla Semi reservation holders to add Megacharging stations at their facilities.”

Tesla is in talks with electric truck customers to install ‘Megacharger’ stations, report says
https://electrek.co/2018/02/02/tesla-semi-electric-truck-customers-megacharger-charging-station/

sidd · « **Reply #3306 on:** February 02, 2018, 10:41:46 PM »

UAW workers demand nullification of contracts after news of bribes to senior UAW officials: Union bosses screwed the workers as badly as the owners.

http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2018/02/01/auto-f01.html

Chrysler workers demand their union dues back:

http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2018/01/31/chry-j31.html

Good luck with that but I don't see either of those things happening in this oligarchy.

sidd

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3307 on:** February 03, 2018, 05:03:57 PM »

Update on: January U.S. EV sales numbers. At long last, Inside EVs is differentiating BEVs from hybrids (where possible), with bolded text labels.

They discuss various models in more depth below their data.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

numerobis · « **Reply #3308 on:** February 03, 2018, 06:09:57 PM »

Look at Tesla completely falling over about to completely go bankrupt due to its total inability to build cars like the old-guard majors can.

Well, except for their model S, 3, and X. Apart from those three models, they can't ship anything in volume.

Bob Wallace · « **Reply #3309 on:** February 03, 2018, 07:50:06 PM »

Assuming Tesla can get their battery pack and Model 3 assembly processes operating at the speeds they projected Tesla is going to be a more efficient manufacturer than other companies. They have a significant head start in terms of produce and brand name.

Once Tesla has eliminated the bugs they can simply replicate. They can build multiple battery factories and car factories at the same time if they perceive a large enough market.

China has huge domestic market and a government that is pushing EVs. I wouldn't expect to see much exporting of EVs from China at least in early days. And even once China is covering domestic demand it's going to be cheaper to manufacture close to market.

I suspect Tesla is in better shape than most European/North American companies. There's a good chance robotaxis are going to tear up the market for lower priced cars. The last people to give up personal car ownership will likely to be the more affluent and that's Tesla's market.

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3310 on:** February 03, 2018, 08:23:39 PM »

Quote from: Bob Wallace on February 03, 2018, 07:50:06 PM

... There's a good chance robotaxis are going to tear up the market for lower priced cars. The last people to give up personal car ownership will likely to be the more affluent and that's Tesla's market.

That’s a good point. Also, consider that Robo-taxis will need to be approved by federal and/or state governmental bodies. I wonder if how they will be influenced by car makers who produce low-end cars. GM would probably love to concentrate on its higher margin SUVs and trucks. But can it afford to lose the lower end market?

Bob Wallace · « **Reply #3311 on:** February 04, 2018, 06:08:17 AM »

I'd bet a French cruller or maybe even an apple fritter that GM is staking out the US robotaxi business. They bought into Lyft which should give them the dispatching skills. They say that they will put self-driving EVs (with no steering wheels or other controls) on the street and in taxi service in 2019. They're pulling out of Europe.

To me it sounds like GM is aiming to be the first company to make a serious robo move in the US and the first mover is likely to grab a very large amount of the market.

And as the public moves from personal vehicles GM can continue to make money off pickups and SUVs.

Buddy · « **Reply #3312 on:** February 04, 2018, 09:38:52 AM »

Sounds like GM is taking Tony Seba seriously. Two of Tony's predictions are (1) most car companies will disappear...with some transitioning to being a transportation service provider and (2) a $20,000 electric car by 2022.

A $20,000 EV will certainly make short work of ICE vehicles.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #3313 on:** February 04, 2018, 09:53:35 AM »

Quote from: Buddy on February 04, 2018, 09:38:52 AM

Most car companies will disappear...with some transitioning to being a transportation service provider.

Tony seems to be a bit behind the curve. Nissan are transitioning to being an energy services provider, or trying to at least:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2018/01/nissan-launches-nissan-energy-solar-for-the-uk/

Quote

Nissan Energy Solar is just one step in supporting our commitment to investing in innovative energy solutions for a more sustainable future and intelligent way of living.

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3314 on:** February 04, 2018, 04:37:42 PM »

Huge changes in truck maintenance ahead, with the advent of low-maintenance electric trucks. Their current infrastructure to take care of diesels is described here:

New Solutions for Addressing Downtime

Quote

Penske’s investment in infrastructure includes 700-plus service locations across North America staffed by over 4,500 diesel technicians. Breakdowns are responded to with 24/7 roadside assistance supported by some 18,000 emergency providers. Should a lease unit be out of service for 24 hours, Penske’s expansive rental fleet can provide a substitute unit, and repair of the original vehicle is expedited.

Maintenance has undergone a wave of change stemming from new EPA regulations on fuel economy, and the technology engineered to boost miles-per-gallon and reduce emissions has altered the landscape. Today’s trucks perform more efficiently and yield important data about their operating condition. The components responsible for these upgrades are sophisticated—some contain precious metals—and can prove fragile. ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/sponsors/penske/new-solutions-for-addressing-downtime/?adv=14587&prx_t=cCYDAUw0WAUt8PA

Buddy · « **Reply #3315 on:** February 04, 2018, 04:50:30 PM »

Quote

Tony seems to be a bit behind the curve. Nissan are transitioning to being an energy services provider, or trying to at least:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2018/01/nissan-launches-nissan-energy-solar-for-the-uk/

My guess is that it is GM that is behind the curve....NOT Tony. Tony has been saying this for several years and has books out to prove it.

Here's a video clip from back in 2014:

And here are a couple of his books:

Clean Disruption (2014)
Solar Trillions (2010)

And while Tony is clearly a "bright guy" (understated.... everyone that goes to MIT obviously has a fair amount of brains)..... he looks to have a BIG CHUNK OF WISDOM AS WELL. THAT....is a dynamic duo indeed: Brains PLUS wisdom.

numerobis · « **Reply #3316 on:** February 04, 2018, 06:32:02 PM »

Buddy, what in the world does a bold all-caps word mean to you? It seems random to me, which makes reading hard.

Jim Hunt · « **Reply #3317 on:** February 04, 2018, 07:37:08 PM »

Quote from: Buddy on February 04, 2018, 04:50:30 PM

Tony has been saying this for several years and has books out to prove it.

You seem to have missed my point Buddy?

I'm not about to rush out and buy all Tony's books. Please direct me to the bit where Tony predicts that ICEV OEMs will morph into EV OEMs and then into energy services providers.

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3318 on:** February 05, 2018, 02:34:33 AM »

Bob Lutz, former Vice Chairman of General Motors, shares his vision of the automobile’s future: ride-sharing, in bland, egg-shaped cars. (From last November.)

Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye
'Everyone will have 5 years to get their car off the road or sell it for scrap'
http://www.autonews.com/article/20171105/INDUSTRY_REDESIGNED/171109944/industry-redesigned-bob-lutz

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3319 on:** February 05, 2018, 08:37:06 PM »

Porsche announces that it is doubling its electric vehicle investment to ‘more than six billion euro’
https://electrek.co/2018/02/05/porsche-doubling-electric-vehicle-investment/

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3320 on:** February 05, 2018, 08:59:16 PM »

Everybody claims their goal is to be the world’s biggest producer of batteries. Bring it on!

CATL, China’s biggest battery producer could become world’s biggest after raising $2 billion in an IPO

Quote

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), China’s largest automotive battery maker, has been making strides in the past few years thanks to the country’s rapid deployment of electric vehicles. The company is now reportedly aiming to become the world’s largest automotive battery maker with a new factory financed by an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $2 billion.

The IPO was reported by Bloomberg last week. Goldman Sachs is reportedly helping the company raise 13.1 billion yuan ($2 billion) for a 10 percent stake, which would value the company at $20 billion. They plan to use the money to finance their second battery factory next to their headquarters in Ningde, Fujian Province.
...
CATL’s batteries, which are primarily using LiFePo and NCM chemistries in prismatic cell formats, have been mostly going to electric bus production and plug-in hybrids, but they recently signed a supply contract with SAAB successor National Electric Vehicle Sweden (NEVS) in order to enable the production of hundreds of thousands of all-electric cars per year. Apple has also been rumored to be in talks with CATL.

The IPO is reportedly going to close by the end of the year at which point should have a better idea of the company’s plans.

Electrek’s Take:

CATL has been on our radar for a while now and it will be interesting to see how their IPO turns out since it’s going to have a major impact on the global battery industry – especially in China.

With this said, I’m not sure I understand Bloomberg’s analysis of the planned production capacity.

They are comparing CATL’s 2020 planned capacity to Tesla’s 2018 planned capacity, which is 35 GWh of lithium-ion battery cells annually. That’s with about 30% of the factory being completed. Tesla said that it plans to produce 105 GWh of lithium-ion battery cells and 150 GWh of battery pack capacity at full capacity, which is expected in 2020.

While that’s only a goal, it’s also the case for CATL. So if they are comparing planned production, I think that’s a more appropriate comparison

https://electrek.co/2018/02/05/catl-china-battery-producer-ipo/

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3321 on:** February 06, 2018, 02:43:42 PM »

“After years of seeing Tesla establishing its place on top the electric car food chain, Porsche has finally decided to go all-in on the EV segment, announcing a massive investment of $7.4 billion in its green car initiatives on Monday. The funds will be used to develop electric cars, hybridize its current vehicle lineup, and create a response to Tesla’s unfair advantage — the Supercharger network.”

Porsche sets sights on Tesla, will invest $7.4 billion in EV development
https://www.teslarati.com/porsche-invest-7-billion-rival-tesla/

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3322 on:** February 06, 2018, 08:36:22 PM »

Waymo v. Uber trial begins.

Self-driving car trial shows Silicon Valley's sharp elbows; 'second place is first loser'

Quote

Waymo, the name of what started as Google's self-driving car program, says Uber sensed it couldn't catch up to its program, which launched in 2009. So it decided to hire a top Google autonomous car engineer, Anthony Levandowski, who promised to come on board loaded with trade secrets.

Specifically, Levandowski would be able to give Uber a big hand on developing its LiDAR, or light detection and ranging sensors, which use lasers to scan the horizon from a giant eye atop a self-driving car. LiDAR, along with cameras and radar, tells autonomous cars where they can go.

"Uber is cheating, they took our technology in an effort to win at all costs, they took our trade secrets, it's wrong and it's something we're here to rectify," said Waymo attorney Charles Verhoeven. ...

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/306953002

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3323 on:** February 06, 2018, 11:08:18 PM »

Tesla now has the fastest car ever! thanks to the Falcon Heavy rocket’s maiden launch.

“View from SpaceX Launch Control. Apparently, there is a car in orbit around Earth.”
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/960992715579125760
GIF at the link.

Live view of Starman [in Elon’s old Tesla Roadster, in orbit]
https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/960994034960416768
Live video at the link.

Buddy · « **Reply #3324 on:** February 07, 2018, 02:12:03 PM »

One of the interesting tidbits from one of Tony Seba's video's was this:

10% of the people who sold their car in the US in 2017....didn't buy a replacement vehicle.

I can think of THREE REASONS for this off the top of my head:

1) Millennial's who either don't want two cars as a family...or just don't want a car at all

2) Baby boomers who are downsizing from 2 cars to 1

3) Family's with multiple cars....looking to cut back on expenses (no matter their age)

http://time.com/money/4254578/save-by-selling-car/

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3325 on:** February 07, 2018, 09:03:11 PM »

And you think you have a problem finding a place to charge your EV. Try crossing the Sahara desert!

”They drove over 8,600 km in 16 days in order to successfully complete the rally.”

Tesla Model X becomes first electric car to cross the Sahara desert through the Budapest-Bamako Rally
https://electrek.co/2018/02/06/tesla-model-x-first-electric-car-sahara-desert-budapest-bamako-rally/

numerobis · « **Reply #3326 on:** February 08, 2018, 03:39:24 AM »

Tesla declares its Q4 results; several billion in cash, 50% year-over-year growth.

Market is happy: revenue and earnings beat expectations.

Haters are happy: Tesla still has big losses.

Everybody wins!

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3327 on:** February 08, 2018, 02:39:57 PM »

Tesla aims to manufacture 100,000 electric semi trucks per year, say Elon Musk
https://electrek.co/2018/02/08/tesla-semi-electric-semi-truck-production/

From the Tesla 4Q2017 investor letter:

Quote

Tesla will be the first Semi customer. We plan to use the Tesla Semi for our own logistics by transporting Model 3 components from Gigafactory 1 to Fremont. Additionally, our initial fleet customers who placed reservations for the Tesla Semi have been helping us develop the best possible truck.

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2564229359x0x970775/34923C55-6853-4223-ADDA-CB3CDC1B919F/TSLA_Update_Letter_2017-4Q.pdf

Edit: Musk also said that speed of production might be constrained by the number of trucks that can dock at Fremont at one time — despite their leading-edge automated parts warehouse on site. Mentioned the idea of digging a tunnel to a nearby distribution center for automated delivery....
Audio of the conference call here: http://ir.tesla.com/events.cfm

TerryM · « **Reply #3328 on:** February 08, 2018, 04:50:31 PM »

Quote from: Sigmetnow on February 08, 2018, 02:39:57 PM

Tesla aims to manufacture 100,000 electric semi trucks per year, say Elon Musk
https://electrek.co/2018/02/08/tesla-semi-electric-semi-truck-production/

From the Tesla 4Q2017 investor letter:
Quote
Tesla will be the first Semi customer. We plan to use the Tesla Semi for our own logistics by transporting Model 3 components from Gigafactory 1 to Fremont. Additionally, our initial fleet customers who placed reservations for the Tesla Semi have been helping us develop the best possible truck.
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/2564229359x0x970775/34923C55-6853-4223-ADDA-CB3CDC1B919F/TSLA_Update_Letter_2017-4Q.pdf

Edit: Musk also said that speed of production might be constrained by the number of trucks that can dock at Fremont at one time — despite their leading-edge automated parts warehouse on site. Mentioned the idea of digging a tunnel to a nearby distribution center for automated delivery....
Audio of the conference call here: http://ir.tesla.com/events.cfm

Why not a boring hole all the way to the Reno Gigafactory?
With ~4,500 ft difference in elevation, they could just chuck them into the hole in Reno, and pull them out as needed in Fremont. [/sarc]
Terry

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3329 on:** February 08, 2018, 05:50:32 PM »

Quote from: TerryM on February 08, 2018, 04:50:31 PM

Quote from: Sigmetnow on February 08, 2018, 02:39:57 PM
...
Edit: Musk also said that speed of production might be constrained by the number of trucks that can dock at Fremont at one time — despite their leading-edge automated parts warehouse on site. Mentioned the idea of digging a tunnel to a nearby distribution center for automated delivery....
Audio of the conference call here: http://ir.tesla.com/events.cfm

Why not a boring hole all the way to the Reno Gigafactory?
With ~4,500 ft difference in elevation, they could just chuck them into the hole in Reno, and pull them out as needed in Fremont. [/sarc]
Terry

Extreme clean energy transport!

Edit: add regenerative braking and batteries, and you could have net positive energy transport!

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3330 on:** February 08, 2018, 06:55:57 PM »

Elon Musk doubles down on his claim that LiDAR is not needed for Full Self Driving (FSD).

Teslarati says: “Tesla’s focus on FSD technology is quite different than its competitors, in the way that the company is attempting to create a system that works under any conditions in any location. The leaders in the field, such as Waymo and GM, on the other hand, are pursuing something different, creating a system that works perfectly in a pre-programmed, set route.”

Elon Musk explains the delay for Tesla’s autonomous coast-to-coast trip
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-autonomous-coast-to-coast-self-driving-trip/

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3331 on:** February 09, 2018, 01:37:54 PM »

Details on Musk’s factory supply tunnel idea. Included: map!

Tesla is looking at Boring Co. tunnels to transport materials for Model 3 production
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-factory-boring-co-tunnels-model-3-seat-materials/

Buddy · « **Reply #3332 on:** February 09, 2018, 01:49:59 PM »

New Hyundai Kona EV to have "Bolt beating 292 mile range."

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/02/08/hyundai-kona-ev-range-crossover-geneva/

And the tsunami continues to grow....

Buddy · « **Reply #3333 on:** February 09, 2018, 06:45:37 PM »

Porsche Mulls Production Hike For Electric Cars As Diesels Sputters

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-porsche-mulls-production-hike-for-electric-cars-as-diesel-sputters-2018-2

This is being repeated at what seems to be ALL CAR MAKERS as they hurry to make the shift....

The new Porsche will be a Porsche ICE KILLER for their ICE models in the same price range of $75K - $100K. Their more expensive models may not be effected (yet)... But their new EV is ONE SWEET LOOKING RIDE.

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3334 on:** February 09, 2018, 09:43:16 PM »

Report shows electric vehicle sales grew 68% in Canada last year

Quote

Electric vehicle adoption in Canada grew significantly last year according to a new report.

There are now close to 50,000 plug-in vehicles in the country and sales grew 68% in 2017.
That’s based on a new report published yesterday by Canada’s Fleetcarma.

The bulk of the increase can be attributed to a 120% increase in Ontario, which drove sales in the entire country.

Historically, Quebec has been driving EV sales in Canada despite not being the most populous province, but Ontario is now taken the lead for the first time after introducing some of the most generous EV incentives ever seen, including a direct rebate of $14,000 on some electric cars. ...

https://electrek.co/2018/02/09/report-electric-vehicle-sales-canada/

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3335 on:** February 09, 2018, 09:45:52 PM »

It’s all in the timing.

Tesla critic Bob Lutz vs. Elon Musk: A look back behind the bluster
https://www.teslarati.com/bob-lutz-vs-elon-musk-history/

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3336 on:** February 10, 2018, 09:14:56 PM »

Bollinger’s all-electric convertible pick-up truck rejects aerodynamics and light-weight construction, instead making a tough, alternative EV. Available late 2020, and with right-hand drive for the U.K. 120- or 200-mile range batteries.

‘Fully Charged’ video interview.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-dav55oUJ-w&feature=youtu.be

Bollinger’s Overview Video presentation

JimD · « **Reply #3337 on:** February 10, 2018, 10:36:28 PM »

Quote from: Sigmetnow on February 09, 2018, 09:45:52 PM

It’s all in the timing.

Tesla critic Bob Lutz vs. Elon Musk: A look back behind the bluster
https://www.teslarati.com/bob-lutz-vs-elon-musk-history/

The delusional.

Quote

...But the rules have changed…For today’s companies, profits are not the goal, they’re the cherry on the cake. Because the idea is, in the long term, to move toward an infinitely more ambitious goal, one that entails a whole new level of change. Companies that have grasped this can spend many years, even decades, without making a profit, as long as they are able to create a narrative that shows they are on the right track toward the defined goal.”..

Ahem! B***s**t

The 'narrative' he mentions is how long Musk can con fools to suck in their money.

There are 'really' good reasons that experts in manufacturing have grave doubts about the viability of Tesla.

Tesla has lost almost 5 billion to date.
Losses are accelerating.
Since Tesla loses significant money on every car it makes it would have to dramatically raise prices to have a chance of breaking even.
Virtually every major car company in the world has decided that it is time to enter the ev market. Competition is going to become brutal.
The established car companies are 'the' experts in mass manufacturing and making a profit at it. Tesla is does not have any established expertise at this.
The other manufacturers have much better distribution systems.
Tesla is wildly overvalued by market standards and if it can't deliver soon (and it is not showing that it has much chance of this) the market will discount it.
Tesla absolutely does not have any where near the capacity to produce any where near the numbers of vehicles Musk keeps hyping. And it will be years before he could get that capacity.
His competitors already have more than enough capacity to do what ever they want to.
It is hard to see how Tesla can survive in such a cutthroat business.

The only thing holding Tesla up is the irrational financial support he has been getting from investors. They seem to have been convinced that Tesla is like a Google or Silicon Valley computer tech startup and the venture boys and the players are hoping for some big killing. But this is building and selling cars and every penny counts in the long run just like it does for every other manufacturer in the world.

Musk is a kind of con man. He hypes ideas and has assembled quite a group of people who treat him like some kind of prophet and do not hold him to account. Sort of like a religion. But this is fundamentally business and profits do matter. The articles comparison to Amazon is so full of holes it is laughable. Amazon is an internet department store - it doesn't make anything - and it is profitable. The only business which Musk has been involved in which made money was Paypal. All of the rest are net money losers. This is not the mark of a good businessman. Musk is definitely innovative but very undisciplined and should under no conditions be the CEO or President of a major financial concern.

I still think my bet that Tesla is sold or bankrupt by the end of 2020 is sound.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/272130/net-loss-of-tesla/

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/02/09/what-the-headlines-about-tesla-snap-and-twitter-earnings-should-have-said/

Amazon data for comparison. Better financials by far. And I make no excuses for what an evil man Bezos is.

https://www.recode.net/2017/5/15/15610786/amazon-jeff-bezos-public-company-profit-revenue-explained-five-charts

https://www.recode.net/2017/4/27/15451726/amazon-q1-2017-earnings-profits-net-income-cash-flow-chart

numerobis · « **Reply #3338 on:** February 11, 2018, 05:05:14 AM »

Gross margin on the cars remains positive, always has been. What’s with this persistent meme that they lose money on each sale?

They had profitable quarters before — how would that be possible if they lost money on each car?

The comparison to amazon is that amazon also ploughed money into growth for years, until recently; now they’ve been unable to spend all their profit. But they would if they could. Tesla is priced according to the expectation that’s what they’re going to do as well. If you’re trying to grow fast, profits are bad — you pay tax on profits. Better to spend it all, and if you’ve got cheap access to cash, spend that too. That’s what investors are paying you for after all.

Fast growth is risky, because you build up expenses to support a company larger than you actually are. A couple missteps and you run out of cash. Tesla has about a year before they’re dead.

gerontocrat · « **Reply #3339 on:** February 11, 2018, 09:12:31 AM »

Quote from: numerobis on February 11, 2018, 05:05:14 AM

Fast growth is risky, because you build up expenses to support a company larger than you actually are. A couple missteps and you run out of cash. Tesla has about a year before they’re dead.

Let us assume that Tesla goes down the pan in a year or two. What happens,

- some US investors like Trump (and the banks) can use the hit to avoid paying tax for up to 15 years,
- some other investors (the small ones) will be hurt very badly,
- somebody will take over the Falcon rocket programme (now proven technology) simply because it is easy to sell putting up payloads into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional non-reuseable rockets,
- the battery and solar panel business will re-emerge as a new business entity,
- as will the EV production lines,
- hyperloop will be dumped as will the Mars thing,

and Musk will be left with a nice pot of money and remembered as the man who made it happen (and no doubt find another fish to fry).

Investors should remember "Caveat Emptor" and suck it up when it goes wrong. (lies, damned lies and company prospectuses)

crandles · « **Reply #3340 on:** February 11, 2018, 01:54:56 PM »

SpaceX is not part of Tesla.

SpaceX has invested over half a billion in Falcon Heavy R&D and this has all come from profits internally generated. So can easily become profitable by slowing down R&D.

Tesla is public not private but somewhat similar. Making money on selling cars, but investing more in new projects and ramping up production of Model 3. If that investment in faster production works then no problem. If the investment fails to ever achieve anything like the production rates aimed for then there are certainly problems. But given a choice of teething troubles being sorted out or fundamental problems why assume the latter when there were no further delays reported with last results?

Archimid · « **Reply #3341 on:** February 11, 2018, 01:58:37 PM »

A con man? lol. What a weird con.

Most people that invested in the con is making money, except for shorts. Elon's personal fortune is significant, but it is directly tied to Tesla. If Tesla fails he loses billions. His compensation structure is tied to the performance of Tesla. If Tesla is a success, he'll make billions. If Tesla fails he loses billions. How is that a con?

People that buy his products get arguably the best cars in the world. How is that a con?

The mission statement of Tesla is clear for all to see. To accelerate the advent of the electric car, and despite the difficulties he has done that. How is that a con?

His rockets are already the cheapest and they are working hard to make them even cheaper He could have gone the ULA route and charge the government millions for corrupt beaurocracy, instead he keeps striving for cheaper rockets. How is that a con?

Sorry but I fail to see a conman. What I see is a man trying very hard to do things that have never been done before and things that will make our lives better. Does he fails sometimes? Of course. He is as human as anyone of us, but considering the huge challenges he subjects himself it is not surprising.

Buddy · « **Reply #3342 on:** February 11, 2018, 03:42:40 PM »

Tesla...the publicly held company....has 3 segments:

1) Cars and trucks
2) Batteries (residential, commercial, and utility)
3) Solar PV/rooftops

The solar piece was the company that Tesla acquired from Elon's cousin...who is no longer with the company. Did Elon and his lieutenants wait too long to change the business model of SolarCity? Without a doubt.

I agree with others that calling Elon a con man is..... inaccurate to say the least. Does he "overpromise and under-deliver": YES. All the time. And investors know that. Is that a good thing? NO...of course not.

Back in 2008/2009 Elon had his "balls to the walls" in all 3 of the organizations: Tesla, SolarCity, and SpaceEx. He had made some BIG BETS (with a lot of HIS OWN MONEY as well as others)....and managed to get through the Great Recession.

Will Tesla ever deliver profits? As some have pointed out.....Amazon didn't deliver for a long time...and I remember analysts pouring cement on their grave as well. Time will tell.

For a guy that taught himself coding at the age of 12....Elon has come a long way....and he has PUSHED SOCIETY as well as OTHER COMPANIES.....to look ahead at what may be possible, and what is better for society.

I am NOT someone who worships at the "alter of Elon".....but I am more than willing to give him a TON of credit for doing some EXTRMELY GOOD THINGS FOR SOCIETY.

And I wouldn't be one to "kiss off" the idea of Elon getting to Mars. I tend to bet against true con men like Donald Trump. Now THERE is a con man.

Anyone who just saw the latest launch of SpaceEx and the Falcon rocket must be thinking: "If THAT is a con....it is sure a damn good one."

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3343 on:** February 11, 2018, 08:01:58 PM »

“2018’s likely to be a very big year for us,” Musk said in a conference call, after describing 2018 as a “transformative year” in a letter to shareholders. “At some point in 2018, we expect to begin generating positive quarterly income on a sustained basis, operating 5,000 per week of Model 3 production and I’m optimistic that we will be GAAP profitable.”

Tesla and Musk didn’t stop there. Other 2018 predictions issued in Wednesday’s report:

• Revenue growth rate will exceed 2017, when sales grew by more than 52%.

• 100,000 Model S and Model X deliveries, roughly equal to 2017, when the cheaper Model 3 was almost completely unavailable.

• Energy-storage sales will triple.

• Capital expenditures will increase “slightly” from $3.4 billion in 2017; at the beginning of last year, Tesla projected $2 billion to $2.5 billion in capital expenditures for the year.

• “True cost parity,” when the cost to produce a Model 3 is equal to or cheaper than producing a gas-powered automobile.

• A Tesla will drive from California to New York without the driver ever touching the wheel as proof of Tesla’s autonomous-driving capabilities.

http://ir.tesla.com/events.cfm

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3344 on:** February 14, 2018, 02:56:00 PM »

Is Tesla planning to swap its fleet’s 3G/4G connections over to SpaceX’s future satellite internet system? Two satellite prototypes are scheduled for launch Feb 17 — and the only receiver station not at a SpaceX facility is at Tesla headquarters in Fremont.

SpaceX is about to launch its first prototype internet satellites and Tesla is getting a ground station
https://electrek.co/2018/02/13/spacex-launch-prototype-internet-satellite-tesla-ground-station/

Buddy · « **Reply #3345 on:** February 14, 2018, 03:06:00 PM »

Volkswagen's first I.D. EV to boast 373-mile range

https://www.leftlanenews.com/volkswagens-first-id-ev-to-boast-373mile-range-99885.html

Quote

Power will come from a rear-mounted electric motor programmed to make 168 horsepower. Basic models will offer up to 250 miles of range, while more expensive variants will stretch that figure to 373 miles thanks to a bigger lithium-ion battery pack. Note Volkswagen obtained both statistics using the European way of calculating range, which is hugely optimistic.

Linking the I.D. to a quick charger will give the battery an 80-percent charge in just 30 minutes. Volkswagen could benefit from the 800-volt charging technology Porsche is developing for its upcoming Mission E.

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3346 on:** February 14, 2018, 08:15:50 PM »

Op-ed in the San Francisco Chronicle says doubling or even tripling the usual mass transit will not solve their crippling traffic problems, thus a new bridge is needed.

“Traffic on the current Bay Bridge — already a chronic headache for commuters — will increase in proportion to the region’s population: another projected 21 percent by the year 2040.”

Time to face reality: We need another bay bridge
https://www.sfgate.com/opinion/amp/Time-to-face-reality-We-need-another-bay-bridge-12563313.php

Perhaps what they need is a new form of mass transit....

Or an easier, and more lucrative, way to form carpools.

numerobis · « **Reply #3347 on:** February 14, 2018, 10:04:56 PM »

Adding more lanes worked so well the other times they tried.

Alexander555 · « **Reply #3348 on:** February 14, 2018, 10:26:45 PM »

There are still more people moving in to the state than you have people moving out. But at least it's slowing down the population growth a little. Maybe a few 100 000 a year extra. But still growing.

JimD · « **Reply #3349 on:** February 14, 2018, 10:35:35 PM »

Quote from: numerobis on February 11, 2018, 05:05:14 AM

Gross margin on the cars remains positive, always has been. What’s with this persistent meme that they lose money on each sale?

They had profitable quarters before — how would that be possible if they lost money on each car?

The comparison to amazon is that amazon also ploughed money into growth for years, until recently; now they’ve been unable to spend all their profit. But they would if they could. Tesla is priced according to the expectation that’s what they’re going to do as well. If you’re trying to grow fast, profits are bad — you pay tax on profits. Better to spend it all, and if you’ve got cheap access to cash, spend that too. That’s what investors are paying you for after all.

Fast growth is risky, because you build up expenses to support a company larger than you actually are. A couple missteps and you run out of cash. Tesla has about a year before they’re dead.

No the gross margin on the cars has not always been positive. It has actually never been positive. Tesla has only stayed in business due to constant influxes of cash from investors who are hoping that just a little more money going in will result in a return. Just one example:

Quote

This amount to a loss of over $13,000 for each of the 25,051 cars delivered in the quarter.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-03/tesla-burns-through-620-million-loses-13000-car-made-ahead-model-3-launch

I urge you to read the links in my post and to read financial analysis's of Teslas quarterly results going back for years. Then you will see how they have had a couple of quarters of supposed positive results (NOT).

In financial terms Tesla has been a disaster not a success. It has been a money sink and still does not shows likelyhood of turning that around and producing actual profits. I am not talking about folks making money on the stock as that has nothing to do with what I am talking about.

Musk is a con man because he twists the facts and obscures the truth. He talks an image and a story which lures in cullible people who then give him money to play with as he desires. But he is not delivering a sound investment. And he is leading people to believe that he is somehow saving their world for them. He isn't and he can't.

News:

Author Topic: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and.... (Read 1508079 times)