Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

[Neven]

If something would happen to the car part of Tesla, how would that impact the battery stuff (Gigafactory), solar stuff, and so on?

[Jim Hunt]

You guys may possibly be interested in our V2G EVSE firmware test environment?

http://www.V2G-EVSE.com/2018/03/30/v2g-evse-ocpp-1-6-on-a-raspberry-pi-compute-module/

[Archimid]

The way I see it TSLA is on sale and the prices might even improve a bit more for interested buyers unless they hit good production numbers next week. If they do that the sale is over.

 The Model 3 delay means less cash this year and a postponement of profits for those interested in profits. The markets adjusted the stock price accordingly.

For those interested in growth of the technologies that Tesla sells, things are looking good. Of course I wished a miracle happened and they succeeded in their 5k a week goal back in December, but Tesla is producing more than 1000 TM3 a week and I have no doubt they will soon double that number. Also:

Tesla Model 3, Popular Mechanics Car of the year
 
https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/gmp19605464/best-cars-2018/

Tesla has demand and amazing products. This is nothing but a temporary setback.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesal released an update on the fatal accident.  Although any Tesla incident will be magnified simply because it is A Tesla, the fact is:  miles driven in Tesla cars are over three times safer than the U.S. average.  The world would be a more dangerous place without them.

An Update on Last Week’s Accident
The Tesla Team March 30, 2018

Since posting our first update, we have been working as quickly as possible to establish the facts of last week’s accident. Our hearts are with the family and friends who have been affected by this tragedy.

The safety of our customers is our top priority, which is why we are working closely with investigators to understand what happened, and what we can do to prevent this from happening in the future. After the logs from the computer inside the vehicle were recovered, we have more information about what may have happened.

In the moments before the collision, which occurred at 9:27 a.m. on Friday, March 23rd, Autopilot was engaged with the adaptive cruise control follow-distance set to minimum. The driver had received several visual and one audible hands-on warning earlier in the drive and the driver’s hands were not detected on the wheel for six seconds prior to the collision. The driver had about five seconds and 150 meters of unobstructed view of the concrete divider with the crushed crash attenuator, but the vehicle logs show that no action was taken.

The reason this crash was so severe is because the crash attenuator, a highway safety barrier which is designed to reduce the impact into a concrete lane divider, had been crushed in a prior accident without being replaced. We have never seen this level of damage to a Model X in any other crash.

Over a year ago, our first iteration of Autopilot was found by the U.S. government to reduce crash rates by as much as 40%. Internal data confirms that recent updates to Autopilot have improved system reliability.

In the US, there is one automotive fatality every 86 million miles across all vehicles from all manufacturers. For Tesla, there is one fatality, including known pedestrian fatalities, every 320 million miles in vehicles equipped with Autopilot hardware. If you are driving a Tesla equipped with Autopilot hardware, you are 3.7 times less likely to be involved in a fatal accident.

Tesla Autopilot does not prevent all accidents – such a standard would be impossible – but it makes them much less likely to occur. It unequivocally makes the world safer for the vehicle occupants, pedestrians and cyclists.

No one knows about the accidents that didn’t happen, only the ones that did. The consequences of the public not using Autopilot, because of an inaccurate belief that it is less safe, would be extremely severe. There are about 1.25 million automotive deaths worldwide. If the current safety level of a Tesla vehicle were to be applied, it would mean about 900,000 lives saved per year. We expect the safety level of autonomous cars to be 10 times safer than non-autonomous cars.

In the past, when we have brought up statistical safety points, we have been criticized for doing so, implying that we lack empathy for the tragedy that just occurred. Nothing could be further from the truth. We care deeply for and feel indebted to those who chose to put their trust in us. However, we must also care about people now and in the future whose lives may be saved if they know that Autopilot improves safety. None of this changes how devastating an event like this is or how much we feel for our customer's family and friends. We are incredibly sorry for their loss.

https://www.tesla.com/en_EU/blog/update-last-week’s-accident

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla registered 2,041 Vehicle Identification Numbers yesterday, for a total of 9,233 in March.
(Not valid for estimating precise production numbers, but an interesting clue.   Previous VIN batch was 2,655 on March 23.)

#Tesla registered 2,041 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 20581. ...
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/979618617598779392

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla Model 3 production reportedly hit 2,000/week, claims leaked Musk email

Moreover, the whole Tesla production system is now on firm foundation for that output, which means we should be able to exceed a combined Model S, X and 3 production rate of 4,000 vehicles per week and climbing rapidly. This is already double the pace of 2017! By the end of this year, I believe we will be producing vehicles at least four times faster than last year.

It took five years to reach the 2,000/week production rate for S and X combined, but only nine months to achieve that output with Model 3. Mind-blowing progress!

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-production-2k-week-leaked-email/

We will get some official Tesla Q1 numbers this week.

[Jim Hunt]

Can anyone suggest where I might be able to find data on Nissan LEAF sales in California?

[Sigmetnow]

BMW’s popular all-electric i3 model is five years old.  BMW is trying to decide whether they should continue to update that model bit by bit, or to abandon the i3 completely and go with a new line of cars developed from scratch as EVs.

BMW is considering killing the i3 and i8 programs ahead of new generation of EVs
https://electrek.co/2018/04/02/bmw-killing-i3-i8-programs/

[Sigmetnow]

Can anyone suggest where I might be able to find data on Nissan LEAF sales in California?

Could only find the graph below, from:
https://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/acc/mtr/appendix_b.pdf

They mention using Experian data....

[Sigmetnow]

U.S.: 
EPA to relax fuel efficiency standards for autos

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Trump administration on Monday rejected an Obama-era plan to make automobiles more fuel efficient, opening up a long process to weaken current standards and putting California and the federal government on a collision course over vehicle emissions.

Scott Pruitt, administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, said in a statement that the standards on model year 2022 to 2025 vehicles were not appropriate and should be revised.

The Obama administration set the average fleet-wide fuel efficiency standards “too high” and “made assumptions about the standards that didn’t comport with reality,” Pruitt said. He did not offer specifics on revising them.

The standards called for roughly doubling by 2025 the average fuel efficiency of new vehicles sold in the United States to about 50 miles (80 km) per gallon. Proponents said they could help spur innovation in clean technologies.

California, long allowed by an EPA waiver to impose stricter standards than the federal government on vehicle emissions of some pollutants, is prepared to sue the EPA if it tries to weaken the standards, state Attorney General Xavier Becerra said last week. ...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-epa-autos/epa-to-relax-fuel-efficiency-standards-for-autos-idUSKCN1H91OD

[Jim Hunt]

Could only find the graph below

Thanks. That's more than I'd been able to dig up unaided.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla Q1 2018 delivery report:  Model 3 production hits 2020/week

“The Model 3 output increased exponentially, representing a fourfold increase over last quarter. This is the fastest growth of any automotive company in the modern era. ... We were able to double the weekly Model 3 production rate during the quarter by rapidly addressing production and supply chain bottlenecks, including several short factory shutdowns to upgrade equipment.”

From January to March 2018
Model 3:
9,766 produced
8,180 delivered
2,040 in transit to customers. These vehicles will be delivered in early Q2 2018.

“Our initial customer satisfaction score for Model 3 quality is above 93%, which is the highest score in Tesla’s history.”

Net Model 3 reservations remained stable through Q1. The reasons for order cancellation are almost entirely due to delays in production in general and delays in availability of certain planned options, particularly dual motor AWD and the smaller battery pack. As described above, owner happiness with the product is extremely high. ...

Given the progress made thus far and upcoming actions for further capacity improvement, we expect that the Model 3 production rate will climb rapidly through Q2. Tesla continues to target a production rate of approximately 5,000 units per week in about three months, laying the groundwork for Q3 to have the long-sought ideal combination of high volume, good gross margin and strong positive operating cash flow. As a result, Tesla does not require an equity or debt raise this year, apart from standard credit lines.

http://ir.tesla.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1062670

[TerryM]

Sig


I don't want to be the one to bring balance to your Tesla story, but simply googling Tesla brings up a sea of negativity.


Terry

[Neven]

It's more like Sig is bringing balance to all the negativity! I hope they can double the rate again asap, and that enough people are happy with the quality. We simply can't have Tesla fail. Not yet, when other car manufacturers are probably trying to pull another EV-1.

I've been looking at Hyundia Ioniq lately, either BEV or PHEV. I like it better than the Prius 4, but haven't seen one up close yet. Those Hyundais aren't very distinctive, I must say. Not that I mind a boring car. Suits my personality fine. 

[TerryM]

Neven
You may be right. I've no idea how much is real coming from either side.
I'm due for another set of wheels, principally because of rust, something I never had to deal with while living in the desert.
I'm too cheap to buy a new vehicle, and there is no way for me to plug in where I park so I won't be considering an EV.
Terry

[Neven]

Maybe a second-hand Prius would be an option? I really like the Prius 3. If the plug-in version had a bigger battery (4.4 kWh, I believe), I'd continue to seriously consider it. But the Hyundai Ioniq has a 8.9 kWh battery (in theory 63 km), which means I could reach Graz, which is the biggest, nearest city to where we live.

I don't care what's real, I don't trust the auto industry (building EVs, while fighting CAFE standards, right  ). I don't trust Tesla 100% either, because it's mostly Green BAU, but it's the best we've got.

[TerryM]

I was with Tesla until the Semi was unveiled. A portion of my misspent youth was spent jockeying those beasts around the US, then a few more years owning a small feat.
Some of the features and figures just never added up in my mind, which got me following Musk a little closer.


I've always preferred those that under promised and over delivered.


That said I hope he can put it all together and show up the world.


I drove one of the first Prius available for sale in Los Angeles and was thrilled by the ride. If they haven't gone way down hill over the years I might look about for one without even a hint of rust.


I've got heated underground parking and shouldn't need to worry about rust, but my present beast runs well and looks like hell.
Terry

[Sigmetnow]

It's more like Sig is bringing balance to all the negativity!
...

This.  People have been insisting that “Tesla will be bankrupt in three months...” pretty much constantly since 2008.    Um, wrong!

5,000 Model 3 a week should happen in “about three months.”  Musk says they will optimize at that level (at which point the profit margin on the car will be 25%), then continue to ramp.  Little to no further capital expense is needed to ramp to 10,000 a week.

Here’s a look at the early U.S. EV sales data for March.  Given the reservations queue, we know the demand for Model 3 is there.  It’s the other car companies we should be worried about.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

[magnamentis]

It's more like Sig is bringing balance to all the negativity!
...

This.  People have been insisting that “Tesla will be bankrupt in three months...” pretty much constantly since 2008.    Um, wrong!

5,000 Model 3 a week should happen in “about three months.”  Musk says they will optimize at that level (at which point the profit margin on the car will be 25%), then continue to ramp.  Little to no further capital expense is needed to ramp to 10,000 a week.

Here’s a look at the early U.S. EV sales data for March.  Given the reservations queue, we know the demand for Model 3 is there.  It’s the other car companies we should be worried about.

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

it's never good to think one can predict the moments and then GM was bankrupt and still exists, means that there are other possibilites than black (bankrupt) and white (profitable)

what i say is that this company is burning money and without continuing fund rising by whatever means and from whatever sources it would have to go down the river.

does not mean it will happen as mentioned above but ultimately i think it will either be merged and or taken over. it just takes a sincere shortage of cash (crisis) to trigger a funding stop that will ultimately trigger a change, whichever change it will be.

[Archimid]

I don't trust Tesla 100% either, because it's mostly Green BAU, but it's the best we've got.

Green BAU. I've never heard that before but I like it. Tesla is exactly that. The idea of Tesla is a quick transition to non emitting forms of energy usage that allows us to have a modern society and at the same time stops CO2 induced global warming.

10 years ago I found the idea of a green BAU abhorrent because CO2 is not the only problem. Human are pushing Earth's ecosystems to the breaking point. We depend on the Earth's ecosystem as much as we depend on a relatively stable climate system. At the same time both the stability of the climate and the stability of the earth's biosphere depend on each other.

Even a Green BAU leads to a bad ending. We can't just limit global warming and keep everything else BAU. There must be fundamental changes at all levels of society in the way we use the planet. If there aren't the Earth will not sustain a growing humanity for much longer. All these problems must be solved so that we can keep making the world better at the same time that we grow as a species.

Divide and conquer. That strategy is a time honored way of solving problems. CO2 induced global warming is just one of the problems that must be solved and it is a big one, probably the biggest one. Elon musk decided it was possible to permanently solve the fossil fuel part of the CO2 problem. He is solving that part of the problem.

10 year ago I thought that Elon Musk dream was simply impossible. No way he could make an electric car that was better than ICE. I though the whole idea of Tesla was just more BAU. But then Model S happened. It was indeed possible to make an EV that is better than an ICE. And then Powerpack happened, and Powerwall, and Solar Roof. He made a believer out of me.

I now believe it is possible to have a modern world without destroying our climate through CO2 warming. For that to happen, rapid electrification and adoption of non emitting energy is needed. Tesla is leading that transition.

Are they going through a rough patch? Absolutely. A 100% self imposed rough patch that if successful will provide the efficiencies and profits needed for the next push for electrification.

If we get lucky with the Arctic for 10 more years, CO2 may not be a problem anymore Tesla is in a position to make that happen. However if we get unlucky, the more homes and towns with local renewable power and batteries, then the higher our chance to recover. Tesla is also making that happen.

[ghoti]

All the hand wringing over the slow ramp up of Model 3 deliveries to date highlights how people just can't relate to exponential growth. The apparent extremely slow starting grow is normal and expected but still fools us into thinking the numbers will never become large.

Here's a chart of the deliveries of Model 3s plotted against the number of months since production began. The exponential trend line is an extremely good fit with 97% of the variation explained (R2 =.97).

Extending the trend line out to April projects 7180 deliveries. That's pretty close to the suggested 2000/week rate of production. They are soon going to find delivery staff and facilities will be limiting rather than production. Similar to the problem they had this past month in Norway where so many cars were being shipped they couldn't find reliable car transport trucks.

[numerobis]

I was with Tesla until the Semi was unveiled. A portion of my misspent youth was spent jockeying those beasts around the US, then a few more years owning a small feat.
Some of the features and figures just never added up in my mind, which got me following Musk a little closer.

I'd love to see you get those not-adding-up bits out of your mind. It's easy to find claims that the truck is impossible, but what *precisely* doesn't add up? Arguments from personal incredulity hold no water. You drove a truck; use your experience to tell us what can't work.

Each of the claimed numbers for the truck add up fine. Likely they'll beat the claimed performance numbers, or else the profit margin will be quite thin. The only real question is a business one: can Tesla execute fast enough to beat its competition to market (or at least not be too far behind)?

[Sigmetnow]

... it just takes a sincere shortage of cash (crisis) to trigger a funding stop that will ultimately trigger a change, whichever change it will be.

8,180 Model 3 so far in 2018  x  $50,000 average price of currently available versions of the Model 3 = $409 million just for that model, in 1Q 2018 alone.  And Tesla is not offering leases on the car yet.  Now add Model S and X sales, stationary storage products, and solar roofs.  And willing investors, large and small (the last unofficial bond offering was oversubscribed by 14 times!).  And suppliers willing to work with longer and more favorable credit terms than when Tesla was just starting out....

In short, there are hundreds of thousands of people (and likely millions more) begging Tesla to “Shut up and take my money!”

There is no shortage of cash.  And Tesla will be cash-flow positive by the end of the year.

[TerryM]

I was with Tesla until the Semi was unveiled. A portion of my misspent youth was spent jockeying those beasts around the US, then a few more years owning a small feat.
Some of the features and figures just never added up in my mind, which got me following Musk a little closer.

I'd love to see you get those not-adding-up bits out of your mind. It's easy to find claims that the truck is impossible, but what *precisely* doesn't add up? Arguments from personal incredulity hold no water. You drove a truck; use your experience to tell us what can't work.

Each of the claimed numbers for the truck add up fine. Likely they'll beat the claimed performance numbers, or else the profit margin will be quite thin. The only real question is a business one: can Tesla execute fast enough to beat its competition to market (or at least not be too far behind)?

I enumerated a number of them back when the Semi was first unveiled. Bob, Sigmet & I went round and round for a week or so. I'd still like to watch someone back one into a narrow slot from that centered cab position.
Remember that the first one shown had mirrors, as required in every state in the union.

Is a huge electrical compressor required to operate the cab & trailer brakes legally, or will Tesla cabs only be capable of pulling Tesla trailers in such states that have re-written their laws? No regen while slowing down using those air brakes. Feeding a compressor and losing out on regeneration means more battery. Batteries are heavy and every pound that the battery weighs is a pound that can't be hauled.

Do you remember how close coupled the Tesla tractor was to it's trailer? In real life a trailer is slid back or forth with the 5th wheel to get the load legal, or balanced on the axles. You may get much better windage with a close coupled rig, but if the load isn't balanced it's illegal to drive on a highway.

I believe the last discussion broke down over claims that convoyed Tesla Trucks would be more efficient than rail for long haul freight.

I doubt if I'm up to redoing the whole discussion. Electric Semi's are the future of trucking, but they won't be able to compete with long haul rail. Steel on steel wins out over rubber and asphalt.

Tesla's problems can all be worked around, but then it won't be the truck that Musk unveiled.
Terry

[numerobis]

I agree that the truck that was unveiled will not go into production without changes. It would be pretty stupid of Tesla to do that -- why spend 2 years sitting on the design when they could get some experience with the truck and respond to customer requests.

Tesla is also not like Uber: they lobby to change the law, rather than just breaking it and dealing with the consequences later. The two current prototypes driving around have mirrors on them.

For efficiency, Tesla claimed 2 kWh per mile, which is equivalent to what a diesel generator that burns 7 mpg would produce -- about the same as the average semi on the road today. So their numbers work out even with the standard shape cab and trailer. Anything better is gravy. It'll likely haul a couple thousand fewer pounds than today's diesel, but a lot of loads aren't limited by weight (amazon packages, breakfast cereals, and potato chips for example -- key loads for UPS, Loblaws, and Pepsico). Anheuser-Busch might have to weigh the cheaper operations against the reduced payload.

The discussion about rails seems to be a distraction. The Tesla Semi can succeed without displacing a single pound from rail to road.

[Sigmetnow]

To me, this news is important because the Chevy Bolt EV is built on the Orion plant’s “slow” Sonic production line.  So, will GM switch to making more Bolts (mostly a compliance car, on which they lose money but gain the ZEV credits to make their gas-guzzling SUVs and trucks) — or will they close the Orion plant completely... and do what with the Bolt?

GM to kill Chevrolet Sonic subcompact car

The Sonic is built at the Orion Assembly plant in suburban Detroit, which was saved from closure during GM's 2009 bankruptcy through a $1 billion lifeline of grants and tax incentives from the state of Michigan, local municipalities and the federal government. Seen as a small-car plant preserved largely by the Obama administration, it was refurbished to represent the Motor City's renewed commitment to small and efficient automobiles.

The plant, however, produces about one-quarter the number of vehicles that one of GM's busy truck factories make.

GM laid off thousands of factory workers last year as it scrambled to adjust car production with lower-than-expected demand.

The company sees consumer preference for SUVs over cars as "largely permanent" and is assessing "how we best deploy assets in critical passenger-car segments to ensure we're getting a return," GM finance chief Chuck Stevens told analysts last year. ...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gm-to-kill-chevrolet-sonic-subcompact-car-2018-04-04-124854650


More on the Bolt:
Chevy Bolt EV sales slowly get back to normal – no sign of production increase

Last month, GM CEO announced that they are increasing Chevy Bolt EV production, but she didn’t elaborate on how significant an increase it will be.

https://electrek.co/2018/04/03/chevy-bolt-ev-sales-q1-production-increase/

https://electrek.co/2018/03/07/gm-increasing-chevy-bolt-ev-production/

[Sigmetnow]

Hey, Terry,

Tesla has been working with truck companies (and NTSA) all during the Semi design process, and the prototype has recently made trips to the headquarters of some of them.  So while *we* may not be able to answer all your Semi truck questions/concerns, you can be sure Tesla has been asked, and answered them, to everyone’s satisfaction.

Tesla shows off electric semi truck prototype at private event for big customer PepsiCo
https://electrek.co/2018/03/21/tesla-semi-electric-truck-prototype-event-pepsico/

[TerryM]

numerobis & Sigmet


As I'd said. Electric Semis are the future. But I doubt that many of the features that Musk showcased will have a part in that future.
As numerobis states plenty of trucking is based on volume not weight, and that was actually the niche I operated in. They may well be the early adapters.
Steel haulers, wildcatters that snag whatever load they can find, and even Tesla's runs down the mountain hauling heavy, but compact batteries will care about the overall weight of the cab, and the weight distribution between axles.


Personally I see huge savings for garbage trucks, urban buses, even school buses as giving higher returns than long haul semi's, and there are companies working on these at present. To my eye these are the vanguard of heavy battery powered equipment.
Terry


BTW those electric barges now plying European waters are really leading the pack.

[Archimid]

Volkswagen Orders Up $20 Billion In Batteries

https://insideevs.com/volkswagen-orders-up-20-billion-in-batteries/

You know that Volkswagen keeps telling us that it’s going all electric in the next few years? Well, it’s just spent a lot of money to get that product revolution going. The German manufacturer has selected partners for its upcoming electric vehicle range, and has just put orders in for close to £18 billion of batteries and related technology.

[Sigmetnow]

Vehicle Identification Numbers — gives us a hint about expected production.  Last batch was 2,041 on March 30.

April 5:
#Tesla registered 4,793 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 25374.
https://mobile.twitter.com/model3vins/status/981826266725666816

[Sigmetnow]

numerobis & Sigmet

As I'd said. Electric Semis are the future. But I doubt that many of the features that Musk showcased will have a part in that future.
As numerobis states plenty of trucking is based on volume not weight, and that was actually the niche I operated in. They may well be the early adapters.
Steel haulers, wildcatters that snag whatever load they can find, and even Tesla's runs down the mountain hauling heavy, but compact batteries will care about the overall weight of the cab, and the weight distribution between axles.


Personally I see huge savings for garbage trucks, urban buses, even school buses as giving higher returns than long haul semi's, and there are companies working on these at present. To my eye these are the vanguard of heavy battery powered equipment.
Terry
...

While I agree the Tesla semi truck is not, and will not be, “all things to all truckers,” the announced specs for the truck are for 80,000 pounds (the max Gross Vehicle Weight limit in the U.S.) — whether that is 80,000 pounds of beer, or steel, or canola seed.*

As with any other truck, proper loading will be important.  But the many truck companies who worked with Tesla will have insisted the truck be able handle their various needs.  They’ll be getting Regenerative braking + normal brakes with “Quasi-infinite brake life” (because regen does its work first) + Forward Collision Warning + Automatic Emergency Braking + no transmission + four independent drivetrains (if one of the million-mile motors does break down, the truck can continue to its destination — try that in a diesel!) + ….  The computer control of each wheel “makes jack-knifes impossible.”  “500 mile range at GVW and Highway speed.”  (80% of truck routes are less than 250 miles.)  All in all, it should fit a pretty big niche! 


*I can’t wait for smarter trucks to prevent problems like this:
https://mobile.twitter.com/cbcmontreal/status/981619485844164609

[Sigmetnow]

Gas stations pivot to address the threat from electric vehicles

Why is Europe leading the way when it comes to charging at the gas station? Demographics may be one reason: in contrast to the US, where suburban drivers charge at home, many UK drivers (perhaps up to 80%, according to research by National Grid) live in flats with no assigned parking spaces, and must park their cars on the street. This is also the case in China, and in dense urban areas around the world. If EVs are to become a viable option for all drivers, some solution to this dilemma must be found, and rapid charging at public locations could be an option. ...

https://www.teslarati.com/gas-stations-pivot-to-address-the-threat-from-electric-vehicles/

[TerryM]

As with any other truck, proper loading will be important. 

The problem I was referring to is that unless you haul exactly the same load, in an identical trailer on each run, the cab and the trailer have to be balanced to each other. This is accomplished by sliding the trailer back and forth until the correct axle weights are achieved. The 80k gross is but one of the weight restrictions that trucks face.
A Tesla as was shown can do this with ease, assuming a sliding 5th wheel is built in, but it will interfere with the airflow. Sometimes the cab and the trailer will be very close to each other, sometimes they will be far apart. Musk made a point of how close hauled his trailer was and how this would improve wind resistance. That's OK is you need weight on the drive axles, but if they're overloaded and the weight needs to be shifted to the trailer axles the trailer needs to ride further back. More air resistance means more batteries or fewer miles.


Regen working first isn't without problems. Owner/operators prefer to burn up trailer brakes in preference to their own tires and brakes. In any kind of danger, whether ice, snow, steep hills, or running too fast, the trailer brakes are applied first. Trailer brakes will still be standard air brakes. unless Tesla plans to put regen generators on all of their trailer axles, but that's just more weight that can't be hauled. Trailer air brake control is what keeps trailers from overrunning the cab, known as jackknifing.
No amount of special cab brakes can stop a jackknife as this is a function of the trailer, not the cab. Don't get me wrong, improper use of brakes will cause a jackknife, but if the rig needs to be brought up short, that trailer is going to want to keep going. Run into what's ahead of you or watch your trailer pass you.


Think of dragging a few links of chain across the floor. If you stop suddenly the following links want to come forward and pass the leading link. If you slow the chain by stopping the rear link, everything stays in line.


BTW 250 miles is. or at least was a very short run. I regularly logged 500 miles/day back in the late 60's, and the highways have improved since then. Can you imagine two days to get from LA to San Francisco, a day and a half to Las Vegas?


Terry

[Sigmetnow]

Terry,

Thanks for the info.  The Tesla semi has “wings” on the back of the cab to make the combination more aerodynamic (and they are moveable, to allow for turns) — I don’t know if they can overlap the trailer, or if the 5th wheel can move — can you tell from the photos in the article? 
https://electrek.co/2018/03/21/tesla-semi-electric-truck-prototype-event-pepsico/

Still, that truck is just a prototype, so if moving the 5th wheel is a necessary thing, I’m sure the production truck will have it.

Musk may not be accurate with his scheduling of when things will happen, but he’s usually right about the tech.  If he says the computer controls on the semi will prevent jack-knifing, I’d believe him.  No reason the Emergency Braking program* couldn’t apply trailer brakes first! 

Edit:
*or, any time the computer senses the cab is yawing left or right of the steering wheel position/input.

[Sigmetnow]

Utah ski resorts are changing from diesel buses to all-electric Proterra buses.

“We don’t have to change our routes. We don’t have to change our major operations.”

The Proterra bus recaptured up to 42% of energy, which is energy that would otherwise have been wasted slowing the vehicle down through the use of brake pads, brake retarders or Jake brakes.

Proterra puts its all-electric dual motor bus to a tough test on Utah’s steepest roads
https://electrek.co/2018/04/04/proterra-all-electric-dual-motor-bus-test-utah-steepest-roads/

The video says they passed several diesel trucks going up long, steep grades — their two electric motors deliver 510 horsepower.  (For comparison, the Tesla semi has four independent motors to deliver 1,000 horsepower! )

[silkman]

Renerative braking is one of the lesser known benefits of EVs. Having driven a couple of thousand miles now in my i3 Rex I've learned how to optimise it and very seldom need to use the brake pedal. It's a major element of the car's economy.

Perhaps less obvious is the fact that the way the range extender works is to drive a generator to maintain charge in the battery and the regen braking continues to operate. I've only driven around 150 of those 2000 miles using the Rex but largely, I think, because of the benefits of regen braking the mpg delivered seems to be impressive.

[TerryM]

Can't tell from the photo, but I'd be very surprised if it wasn't equipped.
If the wings can extend and flex with the front end of the trailer it shouldn't make much of a difference, the air resistance shouldn't be effected as I'd feared.


Trailer brakes might be difficult to control with a computer. They are separately controlled and each trailer has different characteristics, probably dependent on air leaks, pad wear, tire wear, inflation and the weight on the axles. Most drivers will play with the brakes a for a bit whenever they hook up to a different trailer. See when they skid on pavement or gravel, make sure they're working on each wheel. At the top of most long drops they'll gave a turn out for trucks to "check their brakes" - that's what is being checked.


AFAIK the only sure way to prevent a jackknife is to leave your trailer at home. I can't imagine any system of sensors and controls that could prevent a jackknife without extending the stopping distance far beyond any reasonable, or legal, distance.
A 66 thousand pound of trailer on two axles can't make an emergency stop as rapidly as the cab can. Only by grossly hampering the cab's braking can the possibility of a jackknife be eliminated.


Terry

[Sigmetnow]

“Only by grossly hampering the cab's braking can the possibility of a jackknife be eliminated.”

What if the cab computer can automatically and continually adjust braking forces separately on each cab wheel, in fractions of a second, as needed, depending on whatever is happening with the trailer brakes at that instant?  Jack-knifing could be stopped before the driver even noticed it!

Think of how motors at the end of a rocket gimbal around to keep a very tall rocket going the right direction at launch.  Similarly, the Tesla Semi’s computer applies different fractions of braking (or perhaps even power?!) to each wheel to keep the cab going the right direction, despite forces from the trailer trying to turn it awry.  Plus, the truck’s sensors will detect any obstacles and adjust the brakes or steering to attempt to avoid them.  If the choice were to stay straight, in control, and perhaps take a bit longer to stop, vesus jack-knifing, losing control or rolling, I know I’d prefer the former! 

[Sigmetnow]

Apparently the new metric is: best-selling non-Tesla EV in the U.S. last month.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/04/05/ev-sales-table.aspx

[Sigmetnow]

Kreisel Electric, a small Austria-based startup known for their impressive electric vehicle conversions, unveiled a new all-electric fire engine.  Range is ~100 miles.

Kreisel unveils an all-electric fire engine – why not?
https://electrek.co/2018/04/04/kreisel-all-electric-fire-engine/

[Sigmetnow]

Further addressing the need in urban areas where owners might not have easy access to overnight charging and therefore, they could regularly use DC fast-charging.

A look inside Tesla’s new ‘Urban Supercharger’
https://electrek.co/2018/04/05/tesla-urban-supercharger-look-inside/

[solartim27]

Renerative braking is one of the lesser known benefits of EVs. Having driven a couple of thousand miles now in my i3 Rex I've learned how to optimise it and very seldom need to use the brake pedal.

I make a point of lightly touching the brakes to alert the idiots behind me that I'm slowing down.

[Sigmetnow]

Wow!  That accelerated quickly.   Recent batches have been about a week apart.

April 6:
#Tesla registered 2,915 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 28289.
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/982208338577387520

Vehicle Identification Numbers — gives us a hint about expected near-term production.  Last batch was 4,793 on April 5.

[TerryM]

Renerative braking is one of the lesser known benefits of EVs. Having driven a couple of thousand miles now in my i3 Rex I've learned how to optimise it and very seldom need to use the brake pedal.

I make a point of lightly touching the brakes to alert the idiots behind me that I'm slowing down.

That sounds dangerously close to a design flaw. Are all regen systems separated from the automatic brake lights?
Terry

[TerryM]

Wow!  That accelerated quickly.   Recent batches have been about a week apart.

April 6:
#Tesla registered 2,915 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 28289.
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/982208338577387520

Vehicle Identification Numbers — gives us a hint about expected near-term production.  Last batch was 4,793 on April 5.

Is Bloomberg still tracking the VIN numbers?
Terry

[silkman]

Renerative braking is one of the lesser known benefits of EVs. Having driven a couple of thousand miles now in my i3 Rex I've learned how to optimise it and very seldom need to use the brake pedal.

I make a point of lightly touching the brakes to alert the idiots behind me that I'm slowing down.

My brake lights come on when the regenerative braking kicks in - or so I'm reliably informed.

[TerryM]

Renerative braking is one of the lesser known benefits of EVs. Having driven a couple of thousand miles now in my i3 Rex I've learned how to optimise it and very seldom need to use the brake pedal.

I make a point of lightly touching the brakes to alert the idiots behind me that I'm slowing down.

My brake lights come on when the regenerative braking kicks in - or so I'm reliably informed.

Excellent, I assumed you were tapping the brake pedal because it wasn't lighting.


With this system on urban buses, garbage trucks, any vehicle making a large number of stops, the savings will be huge. I remember when they were experimenting with heavy flywheels to capture braking energy on buses.
Terry

[Sleepy]

First, here are the number of cars in traffic per fuel:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg142400.html#msg142400


Diesel sales dropped somewhat last year, to just below 50%. Image and translations in the link above.
For many years now, diesel has been pushed as the environmentally friendly choice here. 
Now those years are over.

Government makes announcement on low emission zones.
http://www.government.se/press-releases/2018/04/government-makes-announcement-on-low-emission-zones/

The Government will give municipalities the possibility of introducing three different kinds of low emission zones as of 1 January 2020:

The first type of low emission zone regulates heavy duty vehicles. Municipalities can already implement low emission zones for certain heavy vehicles (lorries and buses). Low emission zones already exist in eight municipalities.

The second type of low emission zone sets standards for cars.

• Initially, diesel cars that meet the emission standards Euro 5 and Euro 6 may drive here. But on 1 July 2022, the standards will be made stricter, allowing only Euro 6 diesel cars to drive here. The same applies to hybrid electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids with diesel engines.

• Cars with petrol engines will have access if they meet emission standard Euro 5, or better . This also applies to hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, natural gas vehicles and E85 vehicles.

• Cars with higher environmental performance, such as electric cars and fuel cell vehicles, may also drive here.

The third type of low emission zone sets the highest standard. This zone only allows purely electric cars, fuel cell cars and gas cars that meet the emission standard Euro 6. High standards are also set for heavy vehicles. This zone only allows electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, plug-in hybrids and gas vehicles that meet emission standard Euro 6.

The second type of low emission zone, Class 2, does not include heavy vehicles and there's another twist, if you have a car that lacks emission control (1988 and backwards) you are also excluded...

Plenty of mixed emotions about this here among the public like; "I don't care and will drive anyway". Politicians and primarily the greens have found something to get excited about and the right wing promises that a vote for them later this fall, means a clear no to environmental zones by 2020. Anything else new? 

[TerryM]

Sleepy
Looks as though Sweden is far in advance of anything that North America has even contemplated. Good Stuff!!


Would starting at the top, coal mining, transporting, selling, or burning, be a way forward. If we did coal in 2020, petrol a few years later, then diesel and finally cut way back with natural gas. I say cut back instead of eliminate wrt natural gas because trying to plug it up isn't going to work. It's lighter than air and just wants to be free - better to burn it.


Anyway the idea of going after the worst emitters first has a sense of justice, as well as efficiency.
Terry

[numerobis]

Vehicles prior to 1988 must be quite rare — and they likely don’t drive much compared to newer cars. So you’re not missing much by giving them a pass.

Heavy vehicles I’m hoping will go electric soon, for noise and pollution reasons both, never mind the financial costs our cities could avoid. It would affect our cities’ repair shops: suddenly we wouldn’t need as many employees fixing them up.