Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

[TerryM]

Vehicles prior to 1988 must be quite rare — and they likely don’t drive much compared to newer cars. So you’re not missing much by giving them a pass.

Heavy vehicles I’m hoping will go electric soon, for noise and pollution reasons both, never mind the financial costs our cities could avoid. It would affect our cities’ repair shops: suddenly we wouldn’t need as many employees fixing them up.

Our municipality was to switch to NG buses some time ago. Discovered their mechanics couldn't keep them running and went back to diesels.


Ain't the bureaucratic mind a wondrous thing?
Terry

[Sigmetnow]

Wow!  That accelerated quickly.   Recent batches have been about a week apart.

April 6:
#Tesla registered 2,915 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 28289.
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/982208338577387520

Vehicle Identification Numbers — gives us a hint about expected near-term production.  Last batch was 4,793 on April 5.

Is Bloomberg still tracking the VIN numbers?
Terry

Supposedly, but Bloomberg’s site, updated today, says 1,294 a week, even after Tesla’s official announcement that they produced over 2,000 — so....   Maybe “week” means different things to different people?

The favorite assumption is that a second Model 3 production line has been started.  That makes a certain amount of sense, given Tesla’s recent reaffirmation of a production ramp to about 5,000 M3 a week by the end of June.

[ghoti]

There is no second Model 3 assembly line. The second line that is often mentioned is a second battery pack assembly line.

The Bloomberg Model 3 tracker continues to be updated and appears to have been very close with its projections of Model 3 production.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

It is now projecting rates over 2000 per week.
https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/963754287045242880

[Sigmetnow]

Renerative braking is one of the lesser known benefits of EVs. Having driven a couple of thousand miles now in my i3 Rex I've learned how to optimise it and very seldom need to use the brake pedal.

I make a point of lightly touching the brakes to alert the idiots behind me that I'm slowing down.

My brake lights come on when the regenerative braking kicks in - or so I'm reliably informed.

Excellent, I assumed you were tapping the brake pedal because it wasn't lighting.


With this system on urban buses, garbage trucks, any vehicle making a large number of stops, the savings will be huge. I remember when they were experimenting with heavy flywheels to capture braking energy on buses.
Terry

It may not be an all-or-nothing scenario.  After all, when you take your foot off the gas in an ICE car, you slow but the brake lights do not come on.  In a Tesla, at least (and likely, other EVs), lifting the accelerator pedal a little bit causes mild regen, which does not activate the brake lights, but lifting the pedal a lot, causing stronger regen, does.

In his non-scientific method of observation, Jacquot noted that the brake lights on the Tesla Model S illuminate when letting off the accelerator in standard regenerative braking mode, in spite of the fact that the brake pedal had yet to be applied. In low regenerative braking mode, the braking effect was less aggressive and the brake lights didn’t illuminate until the brake pedal was actually depressed.

In a Tesla, the brake lights on your displayed car in the instrument panel light up when the actual brake lights are activated. 

[Sigmetnow]

There is no second Model 3 assembly line. The second line that is often mentioned is a second battery pack assembly line.

The Bloomberg Model 3 tracker continues to be updated and appears to have been very close with its projections of Model 3 production.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

It is now projecting rates over 2000 per week.
https://twitter.com/tsrandall/status/963754287045242880

Ah, I see now the graph has been updated.  The “per week” number at the top of the page must be some sort of average — not sure what sense it makes.

The new Grohmann battery production line was supposed to be installed before the end of Q1, although Elon said his 2,000 to 2,500/week goal for the end of March did not depend on it.

The official Q1 results announcements (due early May) should be quite interesting!

[numerobis]

Tesla reported the number of cars they built that week. Bloomberg only gets to estimate the number delivered, and it takes a few weeks from production to delivery.

[TerryM]

A bit off topic. but decades ago I had a (Ford)? that used fiber optic from each light back to the dash. A foolproof system that pinpointed exactly which light was defective.
Don't know if anyone is still doing it that way, but it was much better than what is otherwise available.
Terry

[Sigmetnow]

More on: brake lights and regenerative braking

From the Tesla Model S Owners Manual:

Note: If regenerative braking is aggressively slowing Model S, such as on a steep descent, brake lights turn on to alert other road users that you are slowing down.

When Traffic-Aware Cruise Control is actively slowing down Model S to maintain the selected distance from the vehicle ahead, brake lights turn on to alert other road users that you are slowing down. You may also notice slight movement of the brake pedal.

[Sigmetnow]

A bit off topic. but decades ago I had a (Ford)? that used fiber optic from each light back to the dash. A foolproof system that pinpointed exactly which light was defective.
Don't know if anyone is still doing it that way, but it was much better than what is otherwise available.
Terry

Sounds like a great method to help prevent being stopped by the police because “your brake light is out.”

[Sigmetnow]

Renault is finally outright selling the all-electric Zoe with battery pack in its biggest market

When Renault started selling the all-electric Zoe in France, it had a controversial scheme that prevented buyers from owning the battery pack. They could either own the car and pay a monthly fee to lease the pack or lease the whole car.

While it is indeed a controversial scheme, it’s undoubtedly a successful one since under it, the Renault Zoe became the most popular all-electric vehicle in France.

But now the French automaker finally lets buyers also own the battery pack starting today. ...

https://electrek.co/2018/04/03/renault-zoe-outright-selling-battery-pack-france/

[gerontocrat]

Robertscribbler.com has the 1st quarter us ev sales table.

[Sigmetnow]

I’ll just leave this here.... 


Trump exploring stricter environmental rules for imported cars as ‘nontariff barrier’
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-exploring-stricter-environmental-rules-for-imported-cars-as-nontariff-barrier-2018-04-06

[Sigmetnow]

Robertscribbler.com has the 1st quarter us ev sales table.

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/04/06/u-s-electrical-vehicle-sales-surge-breaking-new-records-in-march/

Good review.  Note: He uses the same InsideEVs table referenced in above comments.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla guides EV industry’s shift from niche production to mass market

EVs reached a major milestone in 2017. The main obstacles to mass market adoption have been driving range and price. With the launch of Tesla’s Model 3 and GM’s Chevy Bolt, both of which offer a range of over 250 miles, McKinsey believes that the range issue has basically been solved, and that automakers can now focus on reducing price points, either by increasing design efficiency or reducing manufacturing costs. To be successful at this, McKinsey believes they will need to follow four technical strategies.

1 – BUILD NATIVE ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Native EVs – cars built on a custom electric platform, rather than adapted from legacy fossil-fuel vehicles – cost automakers more to develop, but offer multiple advantages. A native EV doesn’t have to be designed around bulky components that are no longer needed, such as drive shaft tunnels and exhaust systems, so it can accommodate a bigger battery pack. The pack can also be placed where it makes the most sense – at the bottom of the vehicle. This “skateboard” design, made famous by Model S designer Franz von Holzhausen, has since been copied by other automakers. Not only does it improve handling by giving the vehicle a lower center of gravity, it also opens up much more space for passengers and cargo.

2 – PUSH THE BOUNDARIES OF POWERTRAIN INTEGRATION
McKinsey’s benchmarking revealed a continuing trend toward EV powertrain integration: EV-makers are integrating components such as inverters, motor controllers, etc, into fewer modules.  ...

3 – STAY AHEAD IN THE TECHNOLOGY GAME
... most EVs are following the trend of clearing the clutter. “We observed EVs in our benchmark that have as few as seven physical buttons in the interior, compared with 50 to 60 in many standard ICEs,” says McKinsey.

4 – DESIGN TO COST
Legacy automakers are still struggling to make a profit on their EVs, mainly because of high battery costs (not Tesla, which claims to be earning margins of over 20% on Model S and X sales). Now that the range issue has been more or less solved, McKinsey believes OEMs will need to apply design-to-cost (DTC) strategies to produce EVs at attractive price points while earning decent margins. Fortunately, this something that established OEMs and suppliers are good at, so they may be able to quickly catch up. For example, improvements in battery technology may allow automakers to switch from lightweight but costly aluminum to more cost-efficient steel (a shift Tesla has already made with Model 3).


Can the traditional automakers make money in the volume EV market? Many industry observers are skeptical – one reason for the companies’ reluctance to embrace EVs may be that they see them as a lower-profit proposition. In the first public acknowledgment of this dynamic, Daimler recently announced that it foresees an end to profit growth this year, partly due to the high costs of making the shift to EVs. Certainly, it’s difficult to imagine that any EV will ever yield the prodigious profits of a vehicle like Ford’s F-150 pickup, which has been called the most profitable consumer product in history. ...

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-ev-industry-shift-production-strategy/

[TerryM]

A bit off topic. but decades ago I had a (Ford)? that used fiber optic from each light back to the dash. A foolproof system that pinpointed exactly which light was defective.
Don't know if anyone is still doing it that way, but it was much better than what is otherwise available.
Terry

Sounds like a great method to help prevent being stopped by the police because “your brake light is out.”

Many decades ago I was pulled over by the same cop on the same offramp three days in a row,
First day was following too close, second day was a bad brake light, third day was a bad turn signal.
Paid the tickets and had the lights signed off, then found a new way home.
Terry

[Sleepy]

Sleepy
Looks as though Sweden is far in advance of anything that North America has even contemplated. Good Stuff!!


Would starting at the top, coal mining, transporting, selling, or burning, be a way forward. If we did coal in 2020, petrol a few years later, then diesel and finally cut way back with natural gas. I say cut back instead of eliminate wrt natural gas because trying to plug it up isn't going to work. It's lighter than air and just wants to be free - better to burn it.


Anyway the idea of going after the worst emitters first has a sense of justice, as well as efficiency.
Terry

Mornin' Terry. There's a lot more going on here but this will also ban hybrids in Class 2.
Made a reply to Thomas here yesterday with a summary of what I think should be done in a broader view.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1021.msg148796.html#msg148796
Which also reminds me that I'm in a hurry today.

Vehicles prior to 1988 must be quite rare — and they likely don’t drive much compared to newer cars. So you’re not missing much by giving them a pass.

Stockholm has 17300 of those in traffic, emitting between 10-100 times more. I don't have the numbers for the entire country right now but it's probably somewhere around 150.000 cars, out of ~4.8M in total.

[Sigmetnow]

...

Vehicles prior to 1988 must be quite rare — and they likely don’t drive much compared to newer cars. So you’re not missing much by giving them a pass.

Stockholm has 17300 of those in traffic, emitting between 10-100 times more. I don't have the numbers for the entire country right now but it's probably somewhere around 150.000 cars, out of ~4.8M in total.

I rated the importance of getting rid of old polluting vehicles as high, too... until reading recently about a study that found that, looking forward, those cars will actually be responsible for less total emissions (because they will soon die and be taken off the road) compared to new “cleaner” petrol/diesel cars that have a long future of polluting ahead of them.  Edit: And there’s hundreds of times more of the newer ones.
(Sorry, can’t find the link at this moment.)

[Sigmetnow]

California proposes new rules for testing self-driving cars to pick up passengers

The proposed California rules require that companies hold an autonomous vehicle testing permit from the DMV for at least 90 days before picking up passengers. The service must be free - companies are not allowed to accept payment from passengers - passengers must be 18 years or older and no airport trips are allowed.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-selfdriving-regulations-california/california-proposes-new-rules-for-self-driving-cars-to-pick-up-passengers-idUSKCN1HD2ZL

[Sigmetnow]

Rent a Tesla Semi truck! 

Tesla Semi secures large order of 50 electric trucks from a truck renting and leasing company
https://electrek.co/2018/04/06/tesla-semi-large-order-electric-trucks-renting-leasing-company/


The truck driver fatigue issues (rather unsuccessfully) addressed by ‘Hours of Service’ regulations in the U.S. should be helped immensely by the automation and safety features now being developed for trucks. That alone is a huge reason to adopt the technology sooner rather than later.

Where Did the Hours of Service Rules Come From, Anyway?
Hours of service regulations originated in the 1930s and today are at the center of the debate around electronic logging devices.
http://www.truckinginfo.com/channel/safety-compliance/article/story/2018/03/where-did-the-hours-of-service-rules-come-from-anyway.aspx


Edit:  Nikola Motor customers may have been experiencing ‘reserver’s remorse’ after the Tesla Semi reveal?

Nikola Motor takes swipe at Tesla Semi as it refunds all deposits for its electric-hydrogen truck
https://electrek.co/2018/04/06/nikola-motor-takes-swipe-tesla-semi-refunds-deposit-electric-hydrogen-truck/

[Sigmetnow]

This is what happens when you circumvent smart design while trying to go green too quickly.

Electric bus rolls over and crashes – rooftop battery pack design potentially to blame
https://electrek.co/2018/04/06/electric-bus-rolls-over-crash-new-flyer/

[TerryM]

This is what happens when you circumvent smart design while trying to go green too quickly.

Electric bus rolls over and crashes – rooftop battery pack design potentially to blame
https://electrek.co/2018/04/06/electric-bus-rolls-over-crash-new-flyer/

Why on earth would anyone think that a heavy battery on the roof would be a good idea?


The only advantage I can imagine is that the passengers would be better off if a battery fire should break out. Sounds like either the bean counters wanted to slap a battery on top of an already designed bus, a safety director demanded that the battery had to be as far from the passengers as possible, or a save the environment now type rushed the whole program without any consideration of the forces involved.


Looks like they caught it well before going into production in any case.
Terry

[Sigmetnow]

This is what happens when you circumvent smart design while trying to go green too quickly.

Electric bus rolls over and crashes – rooftop battery pack design potentially to blame
https://electrek.co/2018/04/06/electric-bus-rolls-over-crash-new-flyer/

Why on earth would anyone think that a heavy battery on the roof would be a good idea?


The only advantage I can imagine is that the passengers would be better off if a battery fire should break out. Sounds like either the bean counters wanted to slap a battery on top of an already designed bus, a safety director demanded that the battery had to be as far from the passengers as possible, or a save the environment now type rushed the whole program without any consideration of the forces involved.


Looks like they caught it well before going into production in any case.
Terry

I think they were taking a shortcut, trying to make their ICE bus into an EV, and couldn’t make the batteries fit in the bottom of the ICE chassis.  It was pretty obvious what would happen — whoever greenlit this design was no doubt beholden to financials, and maybe schedules, instead of ride safety and common sense.  We can hope other vehicle makers will learn from this mistake.

[ghoti]

Looks to me as if several traditional bus makers are doing the same. Thing is city buses now are required to be low floor buses for wheelchair accessibility. EV buses for these manufacturers are still a rare oddity. They'll only up their game when they lose business to the real EV bus makers but cities are very slow to give up their old style buses.

[Sigmetnow]

Looks to me as if several traditional bus makers are doing the same. Thing is city buses now are required to be low floor buses for wheelchair accessibility. EV buses for these manufacturers are still a rare oddity. They'll only up their game when they lose business to the real EV bus makers but cities are very slow to give up their old style buses.

Gotta give them points for trying to switch to electric quickly.  But what seems to be the simplest and cheapest option just isn’t.  Tesla discovered this way back when they based the original Roadster on the Lotus Elise.  Here’s hoping vehicle manufacturers learn to take a longer-term perspective and calculate that designing an EV from scratch will save them time and money in the long run.

[Sigmetnow]

Resource:  U.S. Department of Transportation, National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA)

Topic: Automated Driving Systems (ADS)

Included:  Levels of Automation (Image below.)

https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety

[Sigmetnow]

Like Tesla, GM will now report sales quarterly rather than monthly. Will be interesting to see how that affects the reporting of Bolt EV sales.

General Motors Begs Investors to Take the Long View
https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/04/08/general-motors-begs-investors-take-the-long-view.aspx

[Sleepy]

...

Vehicles prior to 1988 must be quite rare — and they likely don’t drive much compared to newer cars. So you’re not missing much by giving them a pass.

Stockholm has 17300 of those in traffic, emitting between 10-100 times more. I don't have the numbers for the entire country right now but it's probably somewhere around 150.000 cars, out of ~4.8M in total.

I rated the importance of getting rid of old polluting vehicles as high, too... until reading recently about a study that found that, looking forward, those cars will actually be responsible for less total emissions (because they will soon die and be taken off the road) compared to new “cleaner” petrol/diesel cars that have a long future of polluting ahead of them.  Edit: And there’s hundreds of times more of the newer ones.
(Sorry, can’t find the link at this moment.)

Of course they will have little impact Sig, but that wasn't my point with my original post either.

[numerobis]

Old cars emit 10-100x as much as new cars. But they also tend drive far fewer annual km as new cars, at least in the US and France:
https://www.cta.ornl.gov/data/tedb36/Spreadsheets/Table8_08.xls
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Average-annual-mileage-according-to-age-of-the-car-at-different-period_fig6_277235247

In the US, on average, cars that are 10 years old or older drive about 35% fewer miles than new cars (I'm discarding the less-than-one-year data because those cars have driven few miles in the past year on account of only having existed a few days in the past year).

In France, the data is similar but aggregated differently. We see that the decline from 10 years to 20 years is pretty steep, so that 20+ year-old cars drive one third as much as new cars.

I'd expect the average annual mileage to continue to fall if we disaggregate the data from 20+ to have categories of 20-25, 25-30, and 30+. And it's only those 30+ year old cars that are unregulated.

On the other hand, a fair number of those older vehicles are purely recreational (VW buses and antique show cars for instance). It wouldn't be a major impingement on human liberties to require them to add some pollution controls.

[TerryM]

Older vehicles as secondary modes of transportation?
Possibly an old pick-up to haul infrequent loads, an old van for holidays, or perhaps the wife's car, only used for grocery runs.


Until recently I usually kept 3 vehicles for different purposes with one getting most of the wear.
Terry

[Sigmetnow]

...

On the other hand, a fair number of those older vehicles are purely recreational (VW buses and antique show cars for instance). It wouldn't be a major impingement on human liberties to require them to add some pollution controls.

Or, simply restrict the number of miles (kilometers ) they are permitted to drive in a year.  Antique cars are often transported to car shows on flatbed trucks.  So, if the truck is electric... 

[Sigmetnow]

Older vehicles as secondary modes of transportation?
Possibly an old pick-up to haul infrequent loads, an old van for holidays, or perhaps the wife's car, only used for grocery runs.


Until recently I usually kept 3 vehicles for different purposes with one getting most of the wear.
Terry

This is exactly what car sharing is about!  Imagine that when you needed a van or a pickup truck, you simply requested one on your phone.  And you didn’t have to concern yourself with storage of the vehicle, maintenance, or insurance.  Many fewer vehicles, serving many more people. 

[Sigmetnow]

In a new official interview released by the company today, [Porsche CEO] Blume was asked “When will we see the last Porsche with a combustion engine?” and he responded:

”I would venture to predict that, by 2030, the sportiest Porsche will have an electric drive. Who knows – maybe by then even our iconic sports car, the 911, will be electric.”

https://electrek.co/2018/04/09/porsche-ceo-only-electric-vehicles-2030/

[Sigmetnow]

U.S./Canada:  Electric school buses

”According to the company, the first buses will be delivered at the end of the summer or early fall and they will deploy a Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) feature – meaning that the buses could be used as energy storage systems – next year.”

Blue Bird takes its new all-electric buses on the road to convince schools to go electric
https://electrek.co/2018/04/09/blue-bird-all-electric-buses-road/

[Sleepy]

...

On the other hand, a fair number of those older vehicles are purely recreational (VW buses and antique show cars for instance). It wouldn't be a major impingement on human liberties to require them to add some pollution controls.

Or, simply restrict the number of miles (kilometers ) they are permitted to drive in a year.  Antique cars are often transported to car shows on flatbed trucks.  So, if the truck is electric... 

Why are both of you so interested in the least important part? Again, that wasn't my main point and since I was unclear I will quote some of it and end with an explanation.

...
For many years now, diesel has been pushed as the environmentally friendly choice here. 
...
Politicians and primarily the greens have found something to get excited about and the right wing promises that a vote for them later this fall, means a clear no to environmental zones by 2020. Anything else new? 

My main point is that my government is not focussing on high impact solutions. Neither are yours.
Live car free is one of those solutions. From last year:

The most effective individual steps to tackle climate change aren't being discussed
https://phys.org/news/2017-07-effective-individual-tackle-climate-discussed.html

[Bob Wallace]

I still have several more pages of comments to read before I am caught up with this thread but I want to jump in with this bit which I think might be the most important piece of news we've heard in a long time about EVs.  It's Elon stating what he expects Tesla to achieve in 2018.

“True cost parity,” when the cost to produce a Model 3 is equal to or cheaper than producing a gas-powered automobile.

True cost parity in 2018.  That means that this year Tesla will have brought the cost of batteries and the other parts of the electric drive train down to the cost of a internal combustion engine along with all the stuff that makes a gasmobile run.

True cost parity is the point at which the ICEV receives it's notice of impending death.

It's a point reached shortly before people will be able to walk into their dealer's showroom and purchase an EV for the same or less than a same-featured ICEV.  (Purchase prices will lag manufacturing cost drops because car companies will be able to sell EVs at a premium due to supplies lower than demand.)

If Elon is right then we should expect to see noticeable drops in oil consumption by the early 2020s.  We should see a very large drop in oil consumption by 2030 along with a concominate drop in CO2 emissions.

[Buddy]

I believe Tony Seba is expecting "peak production" for oil in 2021 - 2022.  And he had also predicted cost parity among EV's and ICEV's this year or next.

Things should REALLY begin to pick up speed in 2 more years or so on the EV front.  More EV's, even less cost, and continued growth of home solar systems.

A better future is on the horizon ... but there is clearly a LOT of work to do (gross understatement).

[Sigmetnow]

...

On the other hand, a fair number of those older vehicles are purely recreational (VW buses and antique show cars for instance). It wouldn't be a major impingement on human liberties to require them to add some pollution controls.

Or, simply restrict the number of miles (kilometers ) they are permitted to drive in a year.  Antique cars are often transported to car shows on flatbed trucks.  So, if the truck is electric... 

Why are both of you so interested in the least important part? Again, that wasn't my main point and since I was unclear I will quote some of it and end with an explanation. ...

Because, for me, anyway, that is a personally relevant and (more) fun side topic.  OK? 
No denigration of your comment intended.  Sheesh.

[Bob Wallace]

Jumping ahead of pages read again -

Where I live most of us operate on "Humboldt time".  If you invite someone for dinner at 7 you don't expect to see them before 7:20 or 7:30. 

I think a lot of the Tesla noise would go away if we simply accepted that Tesla delivers on "Elon time".

Musk intentionally sets very difficult to reach timelines as a way to motivate his companies to work hard every day.  Some of us take "February 1" to mean the first day of February.  Rather we should hear "February 1" as maybe on February but maybe sometime not too long after February 1.

Relax.  Take a mañana attitude as to when the whatever will happen.  It almost certainly will happen as Elon has delivered almost everything he's promised.  Some things he's delivered early (semi- and Roadster II prototypes, Gigafactory production).  And even the things that have arrived late have been years ahead of everyone else.

[Bob Wallace]

And the hair tearing over Tesla's eminent demise.  As others have pointed out "Tesla is about to go bankrupt" has been a constant drone for years. 

At some point we need to quit paying attention to people who cry wolf when there is no wolf. 

There are people who seem to get their jollies out of forecasting doom.

Screw 'em.

[Bob Wallace]

I'd still like to watch someone back (a Tesla semi) into a narrow slot from that centered cab position.

I recently drove a car with a rear view camera/display.  Imagine a display like that but larger and up where it is easy to see.  You'd see everything behind your truck as if you were sitting on the rear bumper as you backed.

You'd also see both sides of your rig at the same time.  No looking from mirror to mirror and hoping you didn't miss seeing something directly behind you which would now be blocked by the trailer.

Heck, you could be lying down in the sleeper and driving by tablet.

[Bob Wallace]

Is a huge electrical compressor required to operate the cab & trailer brakes legally, or will Tesla cabs only be capable of pulling Tesla trailers in such states that have re-written their laws? No regen while slowing down using those air brakes. Feeding a compressor and losing out on regeneration means more battery.

Is it not the case that air pressure holds the trailer brake pads away from the drums when no braking is occuring?  The amount of compressed air needed would be only enough to replace that lost when trailer brakes are applied.

A smaller compressor and air storage tank might be able to replace a large compressor. 

Smart regen braking should lower the amount of trailer braking needed.

Yes, some energy will be lost when trailer air brakes are used but the amount of trailer braking would likely be small.  And current semis recover zero energy when braking.

[Bob Wallace]

numerobis & Sigmet

As I'd said. Electric Semis are the future. But I doubt that many of the features that Musk showcased will have a part in that future.
As numerobis states plenty of trucking is based on volume not weight, and that was actually the niche I operated in. They may well be the early adapters.
Steel haulers, wildcatters that snag whatever load they can find, and even Tesla's runs down the mountain hauling heavy, but compact batteries will care about the overall weight of the cab, and the weight distribution between axles.


Personally I see huge savings for garbage trucks, urban buses, even school buses as giving higher returns than long haul semi's, and there are companies working on these at present. To my eye these are the vanguard of heavy battery powered equipment.
Terry
...

While I agree the Tesla semi truck is not, and will not be, “all things to all truckers,” the announced specs for the truck are for 80,000 pounds (the max Gross Vehicle Weight limit in the U.S.) — whether that is 80,000 pounds of beer, or steel, or canola seed.*

As with any other truck, proper loading will be important.  But the many truck companies who worked with Tesla will have insisted the truck be able handle their various needs.  They’ll be getting Regenerative braking + normal brakes with “Quasi-infinite brake life” (because regen does its work first) + Forward Collision Warning + Automatic Emergency Braking + no transmission + four independent drivetrains (if one of the million-mile motors does break down, the truck can continue to its destination — try that in a diesel!) + ….  The computer control of each wheel “makes jack-knifes impossible.”  “500 mile range at GVW and Highway speed.”  (80% of truck routes are less than 250 miles.)  All in all, it should fit a pretty big niche! 


*I can’t wait for smarter trucks to prevent problems like this:
https://mobile.twitter.com/cbcmontreal/status/981619485844164609

There's no reason to not expect computer controlled loading.  Balance issues can be resolved before the truck backs into the loading dock.

[Bob Wallace]

Owner/operators prefer to burn up trailer brakes in preference to their own tires and brakes.

Battery powered owner/operators will prefer to use their tractor regen braking in order to reduce their electricity purchases.

[Neven]

Good to see you again, Bob. 

[TerryM]

Sorry Bob, I've done the Tesla Semi thing twice and have no interest in going round again.
Terry

[Sleepy]

...

On the other hand, a fair number of those older vehicles are purely recreational (VW buses and antique show cars for instance). It wouldn't be a major impingement on human liberties to require them to add some pollution controls.

Or, simply restrict the number of miles (kilometers ) they are permitted to drive in a year.  Antique cars are often transported to car shows on flatbed trucks.  So, if the truck is electric... 

Why are both of you so interested in the least important part? Again, that wasn't my main point and since I was unclear I will quote some of it and end with an explanation. ...

Because, for me, anyway, that is a personally relevant and (more) fun side topic. OK? 
No denigration of your comment intended.  Sheesh.

Thank you for your reply Sig. Re-inserting the point.

The most effective individual steps to tackle climate change aren't being discussed

This is why this thread was started almost five years ago.

The below post is one I made on another blog awhile back.  It seemed worth bringing over here as it helps keep one's focus on what is happening out there in the real world that is a strong driver of AGW.  The scale of human infrastructure and activities are often obscured by our limited individual view of the world.  Seeing numbers put on issues that we all know are problems allows us to gain an understanding of how difficult it can be to alter what the current norm is.  Consider the below numbers in light of the attempt to convert the vehicle fleet to electric. Note:  I have edited the old post a bit so that it fits in better on the ASI Forum.

I was recently reading a series of blog posts where one poster was extolling electric vehicles and believed that before the end of this decade that production would be as high as 50% of the car market. So I decided to look into vehicle production data a bit. Some interesting points below. BTW I think he is very wrong and that we are perhaps a generation from that point. But a VAST fleet of ICE vehicles will be around for a long long time given the numbers below.  This has a follow on effect on carbon emissions and complicates any changeover to an all electric fleet as one has to maintain the old infrastructure as well as build a new one.  Resources will be getting scarce.
...

Numbers should reflect reality, this decade is soon over and the winner is; incrementalism.

[Alexander555]

Volvo's first heavy duty truck is for sale, he can drive 300 km.
https://www.hln.be/geld/economie/autobedrijven/volvo-troeft-tesla-af-en-komt-als-eerste-met-volledig-elektrische-truck~a6baf0a0

[TerryM]

Volvo's first heavy duty truck is for sale, he can drive 300 km.
https://www.hln.be/geld/economie/autobedrijven/volvo-troeft-tesla-af-en-komt-als-eerste-met-volledig-elektrische-truck~a6baf0a0

First out of the gate, and from a manufacturer with a solid reputation and a world wide distribution/service center network.
I think the field is going to expand rapidly with Peterbilt, Kenworth, and the others coming online soon. They have a long history of building trucks, and never did build their own drivetrains. No motor or transmission overhead to dispose of.
Terry

[Sigmetnow]

Volvo's first heavy duty truck is for sale, he can drive 300 km.
https://www.hln.be/geld/economie/autobedrijven/volvo-troeft-tesla-af-en-komt-als-eerste-met-volledig-elektrische-truck~a6baf0a0

Based on the Volvo FL, which is “Volvo's smallest truck and is suitable for local and regional distribution operations, refuse collection, construction truck or small format tractor.“
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volvo_FL

Great!  And, a different market than the Tesla semi truck. (The Volvo is a one-piece truck, but the Tesla is a cab + trailer.)

Edit:
More:  Volvo unveils its first all-electric truck with ‘up to 300 km’ (186 miles) of range
https://electrek.co/2018/04/12/volvo-unveils-all-electric-truck/

“The Off Peak City Distribution project studied the effects of goods transport at night in central Stockholm. By avoiding peak hour traffic the trucks were able to do their jobs in one-third of the time compared to daytime operation.”

Benefit of quiet electric trucks:  you can run them in the city at night!

[Sigmetnow]

Volkswagen prepares to produce ‘up to 500,000 EV battery packs per year’ at Braunschweig factory
https://electrek.co/2018/04/12/volkswage-ev-battery-packs-brunswick-factory/

They will be assembling battery modules and packs — from battery cells obtained from other suppliers.  Probably prismatic, “pouch” cells.