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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3950 on: May 07, 2018, 07:05:45 PM »
Today:

“#Tesla registered 5,009 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 39263.  …”
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/993527254872281088

The Bloomberg tracker volume has decreased (remember, Model 3 production was down for a week in April for improvements), but they forecast around 2,500 M3 per week over the next couple weeks, which certainly fits with the above amount of new VINs.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3951 on: May 07, 2018, 07:12:09 PM »
I have a nagging suspicion that this move with the contractors is Elon slashing costs to preserve cash given thre M3 delays, but wrapping it in flashy drama to hide the true purpose. If that's the case I'm for it, as Tesla surviving is the only thing that will force the big auto manufacturers into EVs for good.
Elon with his marketing abilities has done what others before him failed to do - make EVs a desired consumer product outside of environmentalist circles. Now he just needs to deliver the cars in mass.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3952 on: May 07, 2018, 07:32:26 PM »
A new lineup of all-electric trucks and buses is now emerging in Quebec
https://electrek.co/2018/05/07/all-electric-trucks-lion-electric/
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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3953 on: May 07, 2018, 07:38:14 PM »
The EV1 was killed after the car companies got California to weaken the policies that supported electric cars. With the US car companies once again getting what they wanted, a relaxation of the Obama fuel economy regulations, they will leave the field open to China (especially when/if Tesla flames out).

Plug in Vehicles hit 3.3% of the Chinese car market last year, and sales are growing at 70%+ year over year. You also have the big drive to convert the bus and taxi fleets to electric. At the same time, Ford is focusing on selling ICE SUVs and trucks... Feels very much like the period just before quality Japanese small cars created a crisis for the US manufacturers in the 1980s.



http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/03/17/byds-revenge-china-february-electric-car-sales-report/


TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3954 on: May 07, 2018, 07:56:45 PM »
Wasn't it Elon's responsibility to set the terms under which the contractors were engaged? To complain about those terms as if they were the contractors doing, and to call the contractors names doesn't seem rational, or productive.


If an HVAC sub shows up to clean filters and is told he'll have to find an employee to vet him, he'll probably move on to the next job - and likely won't show up next month unless he's been paid in full for the month before, when he was denied access.


I had the MGM casino on a cash on arrival basis for years. Sub contractors won't put up with too much before they walk, and they often won't walk back.


Sleeping on the floor isn't a solution I've ever seen used, and I can't imagine what good could come of it.


Terry

rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3955 on: May 07, 2018, 08:02:02 PM »
Toyota also seems to be doing pretty well with the Prius Prime, #2 spot in PEVs in the US. They are like the tortoise to the Tesla hare; now who won that race? The hare just couldn't keep its focus on what mattered for the race.

https://insideevs.com/march-2018-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/

We could end up with a huge new structural crisis for the US car industry a few years from now, as the demand for electric vehicles keeps growing and the main suppliers are from Asia. The answer may be the "voluntary restraints" that the Japanese manufacturers accepted in the 1980s.

Would be the same for the PV cells, wind turbines and batteries (US manufacturers not important players - only GE wind at about 10% global turbine market share and a chunk of those are made in China). Trump will have made the US "great" again in the same way that Reagan did.

rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3956 on: May 07, 2018, 08:18:17 PM »
Bloomberg is tracking Tesla Model 3 production, they estimate that the rate is now at 1,705 per week. VINs are not cars produced, and Bloomberg has an explanation for the sudden jump, Tesla may have skipped a block of VINs.

"As more VINs came in, it soon became clear that these were not outliers but that Tesla had skipped an unusually large block of VINs when it resumed production from its reported factory halt. The jump could be related to the production halt, to the coinciding start of deliveries in Canada, or any number of other factors."

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/


Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3957 on: May 07, 2018, 08:36:52 PM »
Let's spend just a little time and investigate how likely it is that Tesla will run out of cash and close.  Let's start by looking at  the last five years of losses broken into cash shortfall and capital depreciation writedowns.



Depreciation is not something that a company has to pay.  It's a multi-year expense write-off of money spent. Depreciation lowers taxes and improves the cash flow. 

What Tesla needs to do in order to stay in business forever is to make at least enough money to cover its cash flow.  So let's dig into the cash flow a bit.

Elon says he expects a 25% gross profit margin on Model 3 sales.  And the current average M3 sale is running about $50k.

I'll use more conservative numbers, 20% GPM and an average selling price of $40k.  At $40k and a 20% GPM there would be an earning of $8,000 per M3 produced and sold.

Average annual operating expenses losses were $108,784,000.  $2,092,000 loss per week.

At 20% GPM on a $40k M3 earnings per car would be $8,000.

 $2,092,000 / $8,000 = 262.  Tesla needs to produce 262 M3s per week in order to cover their five year average annual operating losses.

Tesla's highest Opex loss year was 2015 at $466,070,000.  $8,962,885 per week.

$8,962,885 / $8,000 = 1,120. 

Just over one thousand M3s per week to cover their worst year's losses. 

Tesla had multiple weeks of >2,000 M3 production prior to shutting down in order to speed up production.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3958 on: May 07, 2018, 08:40:47 PM »
Quote
Wasn't it Elon's responsibility to set the terms under which the contractors were engaged?

There's responsibility and there's taking responsibility.

Obviously a CEO is not going to personally clear each hire and contract.  But the CEO has the responsibility to see that problems are solved.

rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3959 on: May 07, 2018, 09:23:16 PM »
Tesla warns it may need to raise cash days after Musk insists it won’t

"A day after Musk’s comments, Moody’s said that it expects Tesla to raise approximately $2 billion this year “in order to cover a cash burn during 2018.”

https://nypost.com/2018/05/07/tesla-warns-it-may-need-to-raise-cash-days-after-musk-insists-it-wont/

"Tesla Inc.’s “cash bleed” will likely double in the second quarter as the Silicon Valley car maker attempts to ramp up production of its Model 3 sedan, analysts at CreditSights said Monday" - CreditSights is used by buyers of corporate debt to assess the riskiness of that debt.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-liquidity-to-remain-tight-capital-needs-high-analyst-says-2018-05-07

As per Bloomberg, model3 production is at about 1700 per week. They have to cover opex, plus ongoing capex, plus interest expense AND have big debt repayments coming in 2019.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3960 on: May 07, 2018, 09:26:09 PM »
Quote
Wasn't it Elon's responsibility to set the terms under which the contractors were engaged?

There's responsibility and there's taking responsibility.

Obviously a CEO is not going to personally clear each hire and contract.  But the CEO has the responsibility to see that problems are solved.
I'm not sure that I see the difference.


If Elon is responsible for abrogating a contract with a contractor, or a sub-contractor, he needs to be able to prove in court that he had just cause for doing so. In Nevada the usual fine is three times the contracted cost plus expenses.
You can't run off a sub because you don't like him, because of other contracts that he has taken, or because he hasn't an employee to vouch for him. - unless that was in the original terms of the contract(s).


Elon's public statements are going to be problematic when he's dragged into court.
Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3961 on: May 07, 2018, 09:44:32 PM »
Quote
Wasn't it Elon's responsibility to set the terms under which the contractors were engaged?

There's responsibility and there's taking responsibility.

Obviously a CEO is not going to personally clear each hire and contract.  But the CEO has the responsibility to see that problems are solved.
I'm not sure that I see the difference.


If Elon is responsible for abrogating a contract with a contractor, or a sub-contractor, he needs to be able to prove in court that he had just cause for doing so. In Nevada the usual fine is three times the contracted cost plus expenses.
You can't run off a sub because you don't like him, because of other contracts that he has taken, or because he hasn't an employee to vouch for him. - unless that was in the original terms of the contract(s).


Elon's public statements are going to be problematic when he's dragged into court.
Terry

You are assuming that the contracts were not written in a way that keeps Tesla from simply canceling them.

Why is the assumption of so many that Musk is an idiot? 

Give me the names of a few people who have achieved more than Musk.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3962 on: May 07, 2018, 10:33:00 PM »

You are assuming that the contracts were not written in a way that keeps Tesla from simply canceling them.



I am. Only because I've never seen a contract written that way, and further because I can't imagine any circumstance in which I as a contractor or sub-contractor would ever agree to such a thing.


How would it be written?


"I'll contract to sell and install 4 walk-in freezers for X$, unless at some point you find that the kid behind the counter won't vouch for me, or my employees, or the sub contractor I hired to run the power?"


Do I then sub out the electrician with a clause in his contract that says that
"If I, or my employee, isn't vetted by the kid behind the counter, then this contract is terminated and I'll not be held liable? - and if the kid doesn't like you, you're simply out of luck, and out of pocket."


I don't think Musk is an idiot, but I do think he doesn't always think things through to their logical conclusion.
Do you believe that before any contracts were signed Elon foresaw that at some time he'd need to demand that all of his contractors, their subs, and their subs subs would need to be vetted by an employee of his?


Do you believe that after this he'll be able to find contractors willing to contract with Tesla?
Would you?
Terry

rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3963 on: May 07, 2018, 10:56:51 PM »
Contracts may have "out" clauses, but they usually need the payment of a penalty, a notice period, or actions by the contractor that can be proven to legally breach the contract (and even then the contractor usually has some time allowed to undo the breach).

"Fire at will" may be the reality for many workers in America, but not with business to business contracts.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2018, 11:15:50 PM by rboyd »

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3964 on: May 07, 2018, 11:09:26 PM »
Tesla warns it may need to raise cash days after Musk insists it won’t

As long as they keep ramping production, that's fine. Of course everybody would prefer no capital raise to save some money on interest, but so long as Tesla keeps ramping production the acceleration of the advent of the electric car will continue.

That said, the sources I've seen for this cash raise are speculative so I'm not sure it is happening this year. OTOH, every time Elon has said "no capital raise needed" he's gone and raised capital. So who knows.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2018, 11:43:55 PM by Archimid »
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numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3965 on: May 08, 2018, 02:23:25 AM »
All my time+material contracts have early termination clauses, typically 5 days. That's totally standard.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3966 on: May 08, 2018, 02:47:21 AM »
Quote
Do you believe that after this he'll be able to find contractors willing to contract with Tesla?
Would you?

If I was a contractor delivering a service or product at a fair price I'd have no problem contracting for work with Tesla.  Were I a scammer, perhaps not.

What is important to remember here is that Tesla is not saying that they won't pay for work delivered.  That's something that Trump does.  Tesla is just saying that they will terminate contracts that are not delivering value.  No more invoice padding.

ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3967 on: May 08, 2018, 02:50:11 AM »
All my contracts over 20 years of contracting for the Canadian government allowed them to terminate with no notice. It happened more than once - when the government decided spending on contractors had gotten out of hand.

Same applies to every "temp " worker ever hired.

Letting go contractors to reduce costs by actually hiring permanent employees to do the jobs you realize are important and not the rest is standard operating procedure.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3968 on: May 08, 2018, 02:59:50 AM »
If Tesla wants to start work on one or more additional factories then they will need to raise cash. 

If M3 production is heading to 5,000 to 6,000 a week then borrowing money probably makes most sense.  Borrow the money to expand the business and then pay off the loans with the extra GPM from hundreds of thousands of M3s.  That way the value of the current stock enjoys a big value increase.

$8,000 per car x 1,000 per week  x 52 weeks = $416,000,000. 

If 5.5k of 6k additional units per week are unneeded to cover cash flow that's close to $3 billion per year in expansion money.  (And I'm using more conservative numbers than Elon.) 

The Gigafactory will cost about $5 billion when completed. Two years of excess Fremont M3 production would pay off a GF.  Two more years would probably pay off a new car factory.  Not long after a new battery/car could start running it would be paid for.  Total profit doubles and the next battery/car factory could be paid for with cash on hand from the two companies.

numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3969 on: May 08, 2018, 04:00:44 AM »
Terry: Musk specifically called out time+materials contracts, or cost-plus contracts, as bad. He didn't mention having any beef against contracts where there's a clear deliverable and acceptance criteria.

If you bid on a fridge installation contract for $X and win the contract, Musk doesn't care how you get him a fridge for that price.

If you have a contract to maintain fridges for cost + percentage, and you subcontract that to a fridge repair company, Musk wants to fire you and figure out how to get a fridge repair company directly, or maybe an employee.

Time+materials contracts make sense when you're growing fast. You can take on a contractor quickly who'll get to work fast, faster than a new employee (because contractors are accustomed to ramping up) and you can fire them fast when you discover that the task you set them to do isn't actually needed. It's normal during fast growth that you should take some staffing risks; contractors let you take those risks. When things start to shake out and be more clear, you want to switch to mostly in-house employees.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3970 on: May 08, 2018, 07:06:38 AM »
My contracting experience was almost all in California or Nevada, and I never landed a cost+. A walkin freezer installation takes two techs from 3 days to a week or more depending on size and complexity, not similar to delivering a home freezer at all.


As I read the piece Elon was/is going to stop all contractors as they enter the building or grounds. California is quite strict in enforcing contractor's rights, Nevada not so much.


I only dealt with a temp agency once, after that I hired from a local AA club or a Catholic Mission that would drop them off, bring them lunch, and pick them up when we were done. - good workers who were motivated. I'm not sure that the temp agency was a licensed contractor.


Contractors are regulated by a State Contractors Board in California and Nevada and fairly stringent regulations are (generally) enforced. In Las Vegas we had a (probably illegal) HVAC association that would refuse to bid on contracts proffered by entities that had stiffed anyone in our particular trade, at least until they'd made it right.
In California my lawyer once threatened a government employee with a million dollar suit if he continued to "Advocate the Abrogation a Contractual Obligation". He did cease and desist. :)
In Nevada if a customer thinks I didn't live up to my end of the contract, I've 2 days to get it to pass inspection, and that's after I've been formally notified. If I'm not allowed access they must pay in full, and I'm relieved of any warranty obligations.


I've never been locked out of a job site, and if I ever were my lawyer and I would each make money.
Terry


numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3971 on: May 08, 2018, 01:12:22 PM »
You’re free to have your revenge fantasy.

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3972 on: May 08, 2018, 02:22:38 PM »
TESLA KILLERS: RISE OF THE E-MACHINES

http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-killers-ev-competitors-from-jaguar-bmw-vw-others/

Quote
For now, Tesla’s product offering is unique. But if you take the public statements of mainstream automakers at face value, there will be more than 50 battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in production by 2025—all with range and performance equivalent to comparable Tesla models. Volkswagen alone plans to be selling a million BEVs a year by then. Even if Tesla survives the Model 3 meltdown, the math is inescapable. One David. Many Goliaths.

Here is the list of entrants Tesla must overcome to stay alive.


Yet another informative article that's full of Tesla hate. However, this article is a good overview of the near term future of EV's.  I find it kind of funny that Motortrend thinks of these cars as "Tesla killers" when Tesla's main objective is exactly this. Tesla is forcing automakers to compete on the EV arena or become obsolete. Some are choosing obsolescence, some are making great strides. Interesting times.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3973 on: May 08, 2018, 03:10:43 PM »
Geo-fenced, between “popular destinations” only, with a smartphone app.  And external car signage.

Self-driving pilot for Texas to offer 10,000 driverless rides from July
Quote
An expansive new self-driving car service is set to roll into Texas, with the city of Frisco to play host to a new pilot from autonomous vehicle startup Drive.ai. The trials will be setup to explore the practicalities of self-driving cars in public spaces, with more than 10,000 rides to be offered over a six-month period. ...
https://newatlas.com/drive-ai-self-driving-pilot-texas/54521/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #3974 on: May 08, 2018, 04:01:10 PM »
20% of Americans Say Their Next Car Will Be Electric, Survey Says
fortune.com/2018/05/08/americans-next-car-electric-aaa-survey/

This is an increase from 2017 when 15% of Americans said their next vehicle would be electric.

The range of an electric car’s battery is not the primary concern of prospective buyers, the survey found.  Yet 58% expressed concern over running out of charge while driving (a 15% decrease from 2017). 

“Reliability is the biggest issue, with 92% of those likely to buy an electric or hybrid vehicle stating it is important when evaluating which car to buy.”

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #3975 on: May 08, 2018, 04:12:52 PM »
Report: Software bug led to death in Uber’s self-driving crash
Sensors detected Elaine Herzberg, but software reportedly decided to ignore her.
Quote
The fatal crash that killed pedestrian Elaine Herzberg in Tempe, Arizona, in March occurred because of a software bug in Uber's self-driving car technology, The Information's Amir Efrati reported on Monday. According to two anonymous sources who talked to Efrati, Uber's sensors did, in fact, detect Herzberg as she crossed the street with her bicycle. Unfortunately, the software classified her as a "false positive" and decided it didn't need to stop for her.

Distinguishing between real objects and illusory ones is one of the most basic challenges of developing self-driving car software. Software needs to detect objects like cars, pedestrians, and large rocks in its path and stop or swerve to avoid them. However, there may be other objects—like a plastic bag in the road or a trash can on the sidewalk—that a car can safely ignore. Sensor anomalies may also cause software to detect apparent objects where no objects actually exist.

Software designers face a basic tradeoff here. If the software is programmed to be too cautious, the ride will be slow and jerky, as the car constantly slows down for objects that pose no threat to the car or aren't there at all. Tuning the software in the opposite direction will produce a smooth ride most of the time—but at the risk that the software will occasionally ignore a real object. According to Efrati, that's what happened in Tempe in March—and unfortunately the "real object" was a human being. ...
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/05/report-software-bug-led-to-death-in-ubers-self-driving-crash/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3976 on: May 08, 2018, 04:26:29 PM »
TESLA KILLERS: RISE OF THE E-MACHINES

http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-killers-ev-competitors-from-jaguar-bmw-vw-others/

Quote
For now, Tesla’s product offering is unique. But if you take the public statements of mainstream automakers at face value, there will be more than 50 battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in production by 2025—all with range and performance equivalent to comparable Tesla models. Volkswagen alone plans to be selling a million BEVs a year by then. Even if Tesla survives the Model 3 meltdown, the math is inescapable. One David. Many Goliaths.

Here is the list of entrants Tesla must overcome to stay alive.


Yet another informative article that's full of Tesla hate. However, this article is a good overview of the near term future of EV's.  I find it kind of funny that Motortrend thinks of these cars as "Tesla killers" when Tesla's main objective is exactly this. Tesla is forcing automakers to compete on the EV arena or become obsolete. Some are choosing obsolescence, some are making great strides. Interesting times.

Exactly.  Musk’s goal was to get other companies to make EVs, and he has always acknowledged that Tesla’s success will depend on how their cars compare to others’.

Also, there is a big difference between announcing a product, or showing a prototype, and actual production.  The joke used to be that so many models were coming in “2020” — now it’s often 2025.  Tesla is not standing still.  They will be making over a million vehicles a year in 2020, including new models and trucks.  If anything, the ubiquity of electric vehicles will be a help, not Tesla’s demise.  They haven’t even begun advertising yet!
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #3977 on: May 08, 2018, 04:46:54 PM »
Tesla may not be making a half million by 2020.  6k a week Model 3s and 100k MS and MX don't get them to 500k.  Tesla would need a lot more factory space.

litesong

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« Reply #3978 on: May 08, 2018, 04:54:12 PM »
What happens now, should have started back in the 90s (EV-1). We can't afford another setback. Tesla has to make it.
I too, hope Tesla succeeds. The lead-acid Chevrolet EV-1 had less energy than the 80 mile Nissan Leaf. & the later Nickel Metal Hydride EV-1 only had similar energy levels to the Leaf. & more present day caution needs to be printed, that greatest battery life is longest, when NOT charged to full, NOT depleted to near zero, & NOT DRAINED OR CHARGED too quickly. That the newest EVs are coming out, having emergency ranges well above 200miles (again, you better NOT charge to full, NOT deplete to near zero, & NOT DRAIN OR CHARGE too quickly), we citizens only NOW are being presented with EVs that will meet SOME of our needs. It does appear tho, that many EVs are now appearing with good PRACTICAL(yet cautionary) battery longevity. I had hoped a good super-capacitor EV could have been produced.... but alas.     
« Last Edit: May 08, 2018, 05:12:17 PM by litesong »

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #3979 on: May 08, 2018, 05:03:53 PM »
What happens now, should have started back in the 90s (EV-1). We can't afford another setback. Tesla has to make it.
I too, hope Tesla succeeds. The lead-acid Chevrolet EV-1 had less energy than the 80 mile Nissan Leaf. & the later Nickel Metal Hydride EV-1 only had similar energy levels to the Leaf. & more caution needs to be printed, that greatest battery life is longest, when NOT charged to full, NOT depleted to near zero, & NOT DRAINED OR CHARGED too quickly. That the newest EVs are coming out, having emergency ranges well above 200miles (again, you better NOT charge to full, NOT deplete to near zero, & NOT DRAIN OR CHARGE too quickly), we citizens only NOW are being presented with EVs that will meet SOME of our needs. It does appear tho, that many EVs are now appearing with good PRACTICAL(yet cautionary) battery longevity. I had hoped a good super-capacitor EV could have been produced.... but alas.     

The Tesla batteries are holding up very well with frequent rapid charging.  In fact, battery packs that are frequently rapidly charged seem to have a bit more capacity than those that are always slow charged.  It probably has something to do with battery equalization.  Batteries just need thermal conditioning while rapidly charging.

It doesn't seem to hurt batteries to occasionally charge to 100%.  In fact, one cabbie who has put 250,000 miles on his Tesla cab charges to 100% every day and has good capacity retention.


jai mitchell

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3980 on: May 08, 2018, 05:15:28 PM »
Report: Software bug led to death in Uber’s self-driving crash
Sensors detected Elaine Herzberg, but software reportedly decided to ignore her.

My understanding is that they were testing capability of driving at night without LIDAR.  I am not 100% on this, however, it appears that LIDAR capability is required for all AV-5 operations, at all times.
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litesong

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3981 on: May 08, 2018, 05:19:40 PM »
It probably has something to do with battery equalization. It doesn't seem to hurt Tesla batteries to occasionally charge to 100%.
Yes, the new Nissan Leaf(40kW-hr) also states to fully charge the battery every few months.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3982 on: May 08, 2018, 05:24:25 PM »
Report: Software bug led to death in Uber’s self-driving crash
Sensors detected Elaine Herzberg, but software reportedly decided to ignore her.

My understanding is that they were testing capability of driving at night without LIDAR.  I am not 100% on this, however, it appears that LIDAR capability is required for all AV-5 operations, at all times.

Tesla doesn't use lidar.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3983 on: May 08, 2018, 05:28:17 PM »
Report: Software bug led to death in Uber’s self-driving crash
Sensors detected Elaine Herzberg, but software reportedly decided to ignore her.

My understanding is that they were testing capability of driving at night without LIDAR.  I am not 100% on this, however, it appears that LIDAR capability is required for all AV-5 operations, at all times.
If true a very stupid (in retrospect) test. If the vehicle is designed to run with LIDAR, keeping it on at all times and doing continual testing would seem much more productive than testing the vehicle with this sensor turned off.
The accident has set the whole program back.
Terry


edit:
Tesla doesn't use LIDAR but Tesla isn't capable of AV-5.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3984 on: May 08, 2018, 05:55:54 PM »
Tesla may not be making a half million by 2020.  6k a week Model 3s and 100k MS and MX don't get them to 500k.  Tesla would need a lot more factory space.

Musk‘s original plan was 500,000 cars in 2020, but he moved that up to 2018. (He’ll likely miss it.)  He has said Fremont could produce 1 million cars/year.

Model 3 production goal after 5,000/week is 10,000/week in 2019, so ~500,000/year for that model alone.

The Model Y will be built in a new factory (2020).
A battery gigafactory with car production in China will be announced soon.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3985 on: May 08, 2018, 05:59:08 PM »
Tesla’s current competition is not exactly surging ahead on all thrusters, either.  ;)

Chevy Bolt EV 2019 gets 3 new color options and a few minor updates
https://electrek.co/2018/05/08/chevy-bolt-ev-2019-options-updates/

Hyundai Ioniq Electric is hard to find due to ‘battery shortage’ limiting production
https://electrek.co/2018/05/08/hyundai-ioniq-electric-battery-shortage-limiting-production/

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3986 on: May 08, 2018, 06:36:39 PM »
We're in the middle of 2018.  The site of a new car/battery factory hasn't yet been announced.  Getting a new factory to 400k per year would be hard.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3987 on: May 08, 2018, 06:40:56 PM »
Chevy Bolt EV 2019 gets 3 new color options and a few minor updates
https://electrek.co/2018/05/08/chevy-bolt-ev-2019-options-updates/

I'm pretty sure they also tightened panel gaps and maybe made the production line a bit more efficient.

Quote
Hyundai Ioniq Electric is hard to find due to ‘battery shortage’ limiting production
https://electrek.co/2018/05/08/hyundai-ioniq-electric-battery-shortage-limiting-production/

FTA:
Quote
They reportedly only ordered 6,000 to 7,000 EV battery packs from LG Chem before starting production and they were planning for only 1,200 vehicles per month.

Last summer, they reportedly started planning for a production of 1,800 units per month, but the 50% increase in production capacity hasn’t really been noticeable on the market.

They underestimated demand. That's such a great problem to have.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3988 on: May 08, 2018, 07:19:44 PM »

The accident has set the whole program back.
Terry

Indeed.
This is the accident that led me to suggest front bumper air bags.  A fail-safe for when avoiding a pedestrian/cyclist collision is unavoidable.  I wonder if I can patent that idea? 

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3989 on: May 08, 2018, 08:10:50 PM »

The accident has set the whole program back.
Terry

Indeed.
This is the accident that led me to suggest front bumper air bags.  A fail-safe for when avoiding a pedestrian/cyclist collision is unavoidable.  I wonder if I can patent that idea?

those airbags won't deploy once the pedestrian is seen as a plastic bag, further i'm not sure whether it will be much better to be propelled anywhere without clue where to land by an airbag, speaking about oncoming traffic, candelabra poles and/or any other obstacle of which due to the angle wlll be many not say inevitably many to hit, last but not least water bodies to drown in while unconscious.

the only solution will be to recognize all possible obstacles in the drive path as what they are and early enough if possible, at least comparable to human reaction time or better.

yes i know that computers react faster than we do, i'm only talking about recognition not about reaction time as such.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3990 on: May 08, 2018, 09:19:31 PM »
Remember the inflatable car concept? - one big (happy) air bag.  The so-called inventor is not so happy, apparently, per the article.  (Or perhaps he's just a money grubber.)
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3991 on: May 08, 2018, 09:49:47 PM »
Perhaps just an elderly gent in a top hat with a lantern and a triangle to jog ahead of the beast?
Terry

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3992 on: May 08, 2018, 10:51:09 PM »
I think an autonomous elderly gent android in a top hat, lantern and triangle would be even more dangerous -- people would be mesmerized by him and get run over by the car behind him.

numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3993 on: May 08, 2018, 11:05:16 PM »
Fun calculation about the relative importance of recharge speed for trucking:

Imagine you have an autonomous truck that goes down the highway at 65 mph all day, stopping only to recharge. Let's make it the specs for the Tesla Semi: 500 mile nominal range, recharge to 80% charge in 20 minutes, and add on a generous 10 minutes to get from the freeway to the charging point and back.

So every 6 hours or so, you recharge the truck, which takes half an hour. That's 7.5% of your time (0.5 / 6.5) spent recharging, in the most extreme case possible. If you have a slower charger that takes 40 minutes instead (30 minutes + 10 minutes) then it's still only 10% of your time.

There just isn't much time to be saved by filling up faster than what Tesla is promising.

Where it could bite is with a human driver, and for whatever reason they can't manage to charge during their mandated break so it cuts into their daily legal driving time. Drivers may have to plan their route a tiny bit more carefully than they do today, especially in early days when the charger network isn't fully up.

On the flip side, it's not a huge stretch to imagine human drivers charging exclusively when they can't legally drive anyway, and autonomous ones grabbing a few joules here and there when doing deliveries and they can't move anyway. So I expect with just some minimal planning it'll be far less than 10% of potential driving time that trucks will spend recharging rather than moving.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3994 on: May 09, 2018, 12:26:35 AM »
As long as you aren't 3d or 4th in line for the charger there won't be a problem. At some point we'll have seperate stations for trucks and cars, but until then, if a few old ladies get there first and want to fill theirs all the way up, it could cost a lot of productivity.


Van lines that might have a dozen or more trucks charging each night are going to need to cycle their charging schedules, and may still require some oversize circuits to be able to handle multiple chargers running at the same time.

Terry

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« Reply #3995 on: May 09, 2018, 04:09:33 AM »
We have enough stations for all the electric semis in commercial service today. I’m pretty sure that will continue to be true.

Casual misogyny is a poor fit on you. It’s not like young men’s truck-service power plugs will be any faster than old women’s.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #3996 on: May 09, 2018, 06:58:26 AM »
Quote
Where it could bite is with a human driver, and for whatever reason they can't manage to charge during their mandated break so it cuts into their daily legal driving time. Drivers may have to plan their route a tiny bit more carefully than they do today, especially in early days when the charger network isn't fully up.

Drivers are limited to 11 hours per day behind the wheel.  There is, IIRC, a requirement for a half hour break during the first 8 hours.  As far a I know there is no specification of when during the 8 hours the break has to occur.

A team can drive only 22 hours a day.  Each driver has to spend 8 hours not behind the wheel or in the passenger seat.  In the bunk.

That leaves lots of charging flexibility.  The truck is required to not run two hours per day.  500 mile range with 80% max charging makes for 400 miles.  Drive about six hours at 65 MPH.  Charge half hour, including in and out.  Four cycles per day.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3997 on: May 09, 2018, 02:29:30 PM »
We have a lot of experience showing you can throw billions into public transit, and for the most part it doesn’t put a dent into car trips.  Blame induced demand: Whatever slack is left from people abandoning their cars for transit is eventually taken up by new drivers, enticed by any empty capacity on the roads.

WHY TRAFFIC-CHOKED NASHVILLE SAID 'NO THANKS' TO PUBLIC TRANSIT
https://www.wired.com/story/nashville-transit-referendum-vote-plan/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3998 on: May 09, 2018, 04:34:27 PM »
We have a lot of experience showing you can throw billions into public transit, and for the most part it doesn’t put a dent into car trips.  Blame induced demand: Whatever slack is left from people abandoning their cars for transit is eventually taken up by new drivers, enticed by any empty capacity on the roads.

WHY TRAFFIC-CHOKED NASHVILLE SAID 'NO THANKS' TO PUBLIC TRANSIT
https://www.wired.com/story/nashville-transit-referendum-vote-plan/
Then we could close down all of the outlying health clinics, welfare and unemployment offices, and perhaps repurpose the old transportation hub as a limousine livery.   ::)


They can afford the time to walk while we can afford to fuel our cars.
Terry

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« Reply #3999 on: May 09, 2018, 05:08:26 PM »
London and Paris tests. “A battery range of more than 150 miles (240 kilometers).”

UPS to deploy a fleet of new neat-looking custom-built all-electric delivery trucks
https://electrek.co/2018/05/09/ups-all-electric-delivery-trucks-arrival/
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