Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

[Archimid]

Jaguar I-Pace | Top Gear

[Sigmetnow]

The VW line up looks great, except for the 2020 date. By then Tesla would have iterated so many times that the line up could be obsolete before it comes out. However, VW is huge with great engineers. I'm sure they will eventually compete.

Automakers throughout the vehicle spectrum are innovating and improving in order to compete — it’s great to see!  And yet the #TeslaKillerCemetary keeps growing, even at the top end:  the Tesla Roadster 2.0 specs announced in 2017 put the Maserati’s 2015 Alfieri concept to shame.  Back to the drawing board!  The once-lowly EV market is starting to get exciting.

Maserati: 'It May Look Like We Are Targeting Tesla: We Are'
http://amp.timeinc.net/fortune/2018/06/01/maserati-alfieri-electric-car

[Bob Wallace]

Going head to head with Tesla for the sedan and 'sportscar' niches may not be the smart way to enter the EV market. 

If a large manufacturer would develop an appropriately sized skateboard they could put a pickup, SUV, crossover, or van on top and sell four types of EVs that Tesla doesn't sell.  They'd need to develop only one skateboard and use their experience building multiple type bodies to bring a number of types of vehicles to market.

Establish themselves and hone their EV skills, then start competing with the leader.

[SteveMDFP]

I came across an interesting resource for those who want to keep abreast of Tesla's ramp-up of Model 3 production:
Tesla Model 3 Tracker
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Currently, they're estimating 2,560 per week in production.  And, of course, trending strongly upwards.

I have absolutely no idea whether this number and near-term predictions spell ruin or salvation for Tesla. 

[Bob Wallace]

Salvation. 

Tesla needs to sell only a small number of Model 3s to cover their operating losses. 

A large number of sales will provide a lot of the capital needed for expansion.  For building the next generation of tera-factories where both batteries and cars are built in the same building.

[Shared Humanity]

Operating loss in the 4th Quarter of 2017 was $675 million. They'll need to sell a few more than a small number to show an operating profit. Wonder what their gross margins are.

[numerobis]

The most recent estimate is that their cost is about $28k parts and labour per car, assuming a volume of 10k/week (about 4x where they are now). Their average sales price is $50-55k per car.

The fixed costs get amortized over only a quarter of the units right now, so it’s not profitable yet.

Musk claims we should expect net profit for the company when it sustains 5k/week sales and production. The model S and X (and solar and storage) are profitable now, so that means he’s expecting the model 3 needs a bit over 5k/week production to be profitable on its own.

The second that happens, I expect he’ll raise capital for some big and risky expansion — probably building a production facility for another 20k/week in China while launching the Semi and announcing the model Y. Shorts will declare that Tesla is about to collapse.

[Bob Wallace]

Operating losses for 2017 amounted to $320,000,000.

Selling cars that cost $28k to build for $50k means a $22k gross profit margin.

In order to cover a $320 million loss similar to 2017 Tesla would need to sell 14,545 Model 3s in a year or 280 per week.

[oren]

The gross profit is not $22k at these low rates of production. Musk clarified that they have manual production and higher labor costs due to the production automation challenges, and in any case the assumption of $10k as labor cost had in mind a 10k cars/week rate.

[Bob Wallace]

True about the 10k per week assumption.  I had forgotten that.

Here's the math I did a week or three back...

2017 Operating Loss $320,000,000
Average Selling Price M3 $40,000
Gross Profit Margin 20%
Gross Profit per M3 $8,000
Breakeven Annual Production 40,000
Breakeven Weekly Production 769

Apparently Tesla was producing about 4,000 M3s per week after the slowdown and has ordered parts from suppliers for 6,000 per week during June.

Now let's take things a bit further and cover both operating losses and depreciation.

Average Annual Total Tax Loss $778,324,000
Average M3 Selling Price $40,000
Gross Profit Margin 20%
Gross Profit per M3 $8,000
Breakeven Annual Production 97,291
Breakeven Weekly Production 1,871 

At a rate of less than 2,000 M3s per week Tesla covers its operating expense and creates capital for expansion faster than previous investments are depreciation. 

[Sigmetnow]

Switch to electric cars threatens 75,000 German auto industry jobs

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The switch to electric cars puts 75,000 engine and gearbox manufacturing jobs at risk, a study commissioned by German trade unions and the auto industry showed.

The auto industry accounts for 840,000 jobs in Germany, of which 210,000 are tied to powertrain production, according to the Fraunhofer Institute of Industrial Engineering, which conducted the study.

The rollout of emissions-free vehicles creates some new jobs, in the area of vehicle electronics and batteries, but electric cars will result in less work for assembly workers, Germany’s trade union IG Metall warned.

“By 2030 every second job in passenger car powertrain will be impacted directly or indirectly by electromobility,” IG Metall said about the study, which is based on data provided by Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) and auto suppliers Bosch [ROBG.UL], ZF [ZFF.UL], Schaeffler (SHA_p.DE).

“Politicians and industry now need to develop strategies to manage this transformation,” said IG Metall’s chief, Joerg Hofmann.

Companies need to embark on sweeping job retraining schemes to qualify workers for new technologies while politicians need to come up with a comprehensive industrial and employment policy, Hofmann said.

The 75,000 threatened jobs are based on the assumption that 25 percent of all cars will be electric by 2030, 15 percent hybrids, and 60 percent petrol and diesel variants.

A more rapid adoption of electric vehicles could threaten 100,000 jobs, IG Metall said.

Volkswagen’s top labour representative Bernd Osterloh said electric car powertrains have only a sixth of the components when compared to combustion-engined variants, which means electric cars can be assembled more quickly.

Electric cars take 30 percent less time to assemble than current passenger vehicles, Osterloh said.

A battery factory requires only a fifth of the workforce when compared with an engine plant, Osterloh said.
...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-electromobility-jobs/switch-to-electric-cars-threatens-75000-german-auto-industry-jobs-idUSKCN1J115L

[Sigmetnow]

Refreshing (although depressing) to see articles on EV delays involving automakers other than Tesla.

Daimler says electric cars on target after report of launch delays

BERLIN (Reuters) - Daimler (DAIGn.DE) said planned launches of battery-powered luxury cars were on schedule on Monday following a report in Germany’s Handelsblatt that they were facing delays because of battery shortages and other technical problems.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-daimler-strategy/daimler-says-electric-cars-on-target-after-report-of-launch-delays-idUSKCN1J02LK

[Sigmetnow]

The Netherlands.  Looks like a good model for commuter-type, mostly-solar charging — for cars with smaller batteries, time to stay parked, and with grid-balancing potential.

Electric cars can now charge on sunlight day and night with Tesla Powerpacks at new ‘Smart Solar Charging’ station
https://electrek.co/2018/06/05/electric-cars-charge-on-sunlight-tesla-powerpacks-smart-solar-charging-station/

[Sigmetnow]

Inside EVs has completed their table of EV sales in the U.S. for May.  All models over 400 sales in May are included below.  (Battery icon signifies pure Battery Electric Vehicle.) 

Total for the month is 24,560 — making May 2018 the fourth biggest month, behind only December 2016 and 2017 (the usual end of year push!) and March 2018 (the usual end of quarter Tesla-U.S push!)  Look out, June! 

https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

[Sigmetnow]

Examining (or excusing???) the “Wait and See” approach of some automakers to producing EVs.  The article touts the number of announced future models for each company, but doesn’t show expected future production volumes... perhaps because it’s anyone’s guess at this point.

Why Subaru Is Happy to Be Last in Electric Race
A few carmakers are waiting on the sidelines and letting rivals pay for electric R&D.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-05/why-subaru-is-happy-to-be-last-in-electric-race


Not mentioned in the above article: significant job losses associated with the switch to EVs.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg157377.html#msg157377

And, $billions in the companies’ ICE vehicle assets, soon to become worthless with the switch.  Can they survive financially?

[Bob Wallace]

If you were running a car company and your job was to make money for the shareholders you might not want to get into large scale EV manufacturing right now.  Money is being made manufacturing ICEVs.  Batteries are still expensive.  There's no rapid charging system in place for non-Tesla cars.

What you'd do right now is to make sure you can build a good EV when the market forces you to produce EVs.

Tesla is going to force Mercedes, BMW, and other lower-end luxury car manufacturers to get in soon.  Tesla is selling everything they can make and has waiting lists.  They're taking business away from other companies.

Over the next couple of years battery prices should drop enough to allow manufacturing parity with ICEVs.  Tesla says 2018 for them.  And independent companies are setting generic rapid chargers.  I suspect 2020 is the year when the traditionals will be forced to break out their EVs in meaningful numbers.

[Sigmetnow]

...
Over the next couple of years battery prices should drop enough to allow manufacturing parity with ICEVs.  Tesla says 2018 for them.  And independent companies are setting generic rapid chargers.  I suspect 2020 is the year when the traditionals will be forced to break out their EVs in meaningful numbers.

Or, 2020 will be the year they realize accept they should have done much, much more in preparation in 2018 and 2019.

[Sigmetnow]

May EV sales numbers in Canada offer some surprises

Last month, the Mitsubishi Outlander plug-in hybrid set a new single-month sales record for plug-in electric vehicles in Canada and sold 589 units. One month later, that sales pace—plus one car—is only good enough for fourth place.

Nissan shattered Mitsubishi’s record in May with 906 sales of its Leaf electric car, astounding by Canadian standards. In a country with one-tenth as many people as the United States, Nissan sold more than half as many Leafs in Canada this month. (It sold 1,576 in the U.S.) A 100-Leaf fleet purchase from the city of Montreal helped the Leaf’s cause, but the company credits a big part of the sales record a successful pre-sale program last fall. Those orders are now being filled as the supply of new Leafs pours into Canadian dealerships.
...

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1117062_plug-in-electric-car-sales-in-canada-may-2018-rewriting-records
(Only partial data available currently)

[Sigmetnow]

Notes from the Tesla shareholder meeting today:

Tesla shareholders vote to keep Elon Musk as Chairman and all board members
https://electrek.co/2018/06/05/tesla-shareholders-vote-keep-elon-musk-as-chairman/

Shanghai factory (cars and batteries) announced:

At a shareholder meeting on Tuesday, Tesla's head of worldwide sales, Robin Ren, revealed that the company plans to build its first factory outside of the U.S. in Shanghai.

The Chinese government recently announced that it will allow foreign electric vehicle makers to fully own auto-factories there. Tesla's move into China is hotly anticipated, as building some vehicles there would allow the company to avoid import tariffs.

Unlike Tesla's first American factories, Tesla's new so-called "Dreadnought" factories should produce both batteries and assemble vehicles in one place, CEO and chairman Elon Musk said at the meeting. ...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/05/tesla-talks-shanghai-factory-at-shareholder-meeting.html

Tesla will start Model 3 test drives in North American stores this month
https://electrek.co/2018/06/05/tesla-model-3-test-drives-in-stores-this-month/

In February, Musk said that Tesla plans to unveil the Model Y production plans in the next 3-6 months and that the company will start capital investment into the program this year.

The CEO reiterated today that the vehicle should be unveiled in March 2019.

https://electrek.co/2018/06/05/tesla-releases-model-y-image/

Model 3 sales now topping other ICE cars in its class:
Tesla Model 3 claims best-selling mid-sized premium sedan spot, gives production update
https://electrek.co/2018/06/05/tesla-model-3-best-selling-mid-sized-premium-sedan-production-update/
Image below.

[Bob Wallace]

Earlier data - Tesla made only 18k Model 3s in the first five months of 2018.  Rumors are moving in the 5k to 6k per month range starting in June.  This month.

Imagine what that red line might look like by the end of the year.

I wonder what other companies might be losing sales, or about to lose sales to the M3?  Will many Camry customers pony up for a $35k M3?

[Sigmetnow]

Here’s a link to a video of the Tesla shareholder meeting...

Edit:  here’s the Tesla link:  https://www.tesla.com/shareholdermeeting

Elon mentions plans to do a compact car in about five years!  But “never” a motorcycle.

[Bob Wallace]

Tesla manufacture a compact car?  I thought they had no intention of entering the lower cost market.

Maybe it's a ruse to get the traditional makers to move faster.  If Tesla has figured out how to manufacture with less labor cost and has the lowest cost batteries Tesla could do major damage to the rest of the car industry.

Tesla needs to show a couple of months of 5,000+ M3 weeks and then announce the site of their next non-Chinese tera-factory.  Do that and it will be shake and bake in auto corporate offices around the globe.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla manufacture a compact car?  I thought they had no intention of entering the lower cost market.

Maybe it's a ruse to get the traditional makers to move faster.  If Tesla has figured out how to manufacture with less labor cost and has the lowest cost batteries Tesla could do major damage to the rest of the car industry.

Tesla needs to show a couple of months of 5,000+ M3 weeks and then announce the site of their next non-Chinese tera-factory.  Do that and it will be shake and bake in auto corporate offices around the globe.

Yes, Musk previously said there was no need for a cheaper Tesla, because using the Tesla car-sharing network would make a more expensive Tesla affordable to almost everyone.  So this news was a surprise. 

I think this says that his focus on “the machine that makes the machine,” using physics first principles to make the world’s most efficient factory, leads him to believe that a future “alien dreadnought” factory (using almost no humans? He’s said previously there will be no room for them ) will make cars cheaply enough that an inexpensive EV would make financial sense for the company in five years — a company which will be huge by that time.  There will certainly continue to be a demand for small, quality EVs, so this will be a growth market.  He also mentioned their decreasing cost of battery cells and packs....  Need to find the quote.  Or an article.

[Sigmetnow]

...
Will many Camry customers pony up for a $35k M3?

I recall reading that that is exactly what Tesla is seeing in its trade-in data.  Of course, the numbers don’t threaten Toyota — yet — but it’s another sign that the potential Model 3 market is huge.  Also, people interviewed in the Model 3 reservation lines back in March 2016 overwhelmingly said the Model 3 would be their first EV, and it would be the most expensive car they ever owned.

And that was before the car was revealed!  Elon mentioned recently that Model 3s for test drives would be distributed to all Tesla stores by the end of next month.  People with reservations will likely get priority, but then, look out.  So many stories of Model 3 owners showing off their car to friends, who then go and make their own reservation!

[Sigmetnow]

EV owners in Australia added charging infrastructure, on their own, for any EV to use.

With large regions being only scarcely populated, electric vehicle charging networks in Australia often leave large gaps between charging stations.

Tesla owners teamed up in the country to fill those gaps and cover the major roads with charging solutions.   The project is called ‘The Round Australia Electric Highway‘ and is led by the Tesla Owners Club of Australia (TOCA).

It has three main goals:

• To complete the Electric Highway round Australia, and Red Centre, usable by all electric vehicles, to a minimum available charge rate of 100km of range per hour of charging (70 km/h on a limited number of pre-existing sites) at a maximum spacing of 300km (200km average).
• To do this in the shortest possible time, creating a route that can be driven RIGHT NOW.
• To promote and encourage electric vehicles to use the Round Australia Electric Highway, dispelling myths about the range and capability of electric vehicles.
...

https://electrek.co/2018/06/05/tesla-owners-team-up-create-charging-network-australia/

Image:  before and after.

[Bob Wallace]

Elon's statement about Tesla not making a low cost EV was made before he/Tesla had conceived and worked on their alien dreadnought factory so I guess we should let that earlier claim expire.

If Tesla does build a smaller EV I hope they design it to be highly useful for robotaxi work.  Crowded cities need vehicles smaller than the M3. 

[Bob Wallace]

Some car related highlights from the most recent Tesla shareholder meeting.

Tesla expects to be producing 5,000 Model 3s per week by the end of this month.  Part of the solution for increasing to this level is the opening of a third assembly line which happened two weeks ago.

By the end of the year, he said, Tesla should be able to manufacture the Model 3 with the smaller battery pack. Volume production of the $35,000 Model 3 would begin in Q1 2019.

"It’s really looking like we’re going to have positive GAAP net income next quarter, as well as positive cash flow, in Q3 and Q4,” he said. “As I said before, we do not expect to need to raise any incremental debt or equity.”

Tesla plans to unveil the Model Y crossover SUV in March 2019, with production launching in the first half of 2020.

Tesla continues to expand its Supercharger network, with just under 10,000 units deployed worldwide. The goal, said Musk, is to be able to go almost anywhere on earth using the Tesla Supercharger system.

A next-generation Supercharger will go into production by the end of 2018. When that generation III Supercharger launches, said Musk, “we’re going to accelerate Supercharger expansion even more.”

“The rate of stationary storage deployment is going to grow exponentially,” he added. “Next quarter, at the Gigafactory, we expect to make more battery capacity than all other EVs combined worldwide, including China.”

The aggressive energy storage deployment is possible because of the massive scale of the Gigafactory. Still just one-third complete, it already takes two hours to walk the length of the factory floor, according to Musk.

Construction will continue on the Gigafactory for at least the next four or five years, he said, and it “will be by far the biggest building in the world.”

Tesla will eventually build 10 or 12 Gigafactories worldwide, said Musk, with the goal of localizing production at least to the continent level.

Tesla will announce as soon as next month a combined battery production and vehicle assembly Gigafactory in Shanghai, China. A Europe Gigafactory announcement may come by the end of the year, with the location as of now undecided.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/tesla-to-make-5000-model-3s-per-week-by-end-of-june#gs.UrwIAgc

I'm suggesting that we should start talking about Tesla tera-factories as future plants will apparently incorporate both battery gigafactories and auto assembly plants. 

[Sigmetnow]

“Musk on battery price at the $TSLA shareholder meeting: can likely get below $100/kWh on the cell level by the end of the year. Can eventually get below $100/kWh at pack level”
https://twitter.com/skorusark/status/1004123713766412288

Also posted in the Batteries thread.

[Bob Wallace]

“Musk on battery price at the $TSLA shareholder meeting: can likely get below $100/kWh on the cell level by the end of the year. Can eventually get below $100/kWh at pack level”
https://twitter.com/skorusark/status/1004123713766412288

Also posted in the Batteries thread.

Below $100/kWh for cells means getting close to $100/kWh for battery packs.

The rule of thumb has been 20% to 30% more for packs than cells.  That's not a very good rule because it doesn't allow for rapidly falling cell prices.  Packing prices wouldn't necessarily fall in lockstep.

But let's assume $30/kWh for packing.  $100 for cells plus $30 to package would mean $130/kWh for battery packs (for Tesla).  Take a look at where this would put things on this graph...



Hybrids, PHEVs, and ICEVs with fuel prices much above $1/gallon are out of the running. 

$130/kWh probably makes for parity costs at the manufacturing level.  The next task is to create a low cost battery cell/pack source for non-Tesla EVs.  Do that and we can serenade the ICEV with "Turn out the lights, the party's over...".

[Sigmetnow]

Elon's statement about Tesla not making a low cost EV was made before he/Tesla had conceived and worked on their alien dreadnought factory so I guess we should let that earlier claim expire.
...

The change in plans might also be related to Musk’s recently-approved “10-year performance award,” which requires: “First tranche milestone is a market capitalization of $100 billion; each tranche thereafter requires an additional $50 billion in market capitalization to vest, up to $650 billion market capitalization for the last tranche,” and eventual total revenue of $175 billion....  How’s that for inspiration to think big!

Edit: Link:  http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filingid=1193125-18-35345&cik=1318605

[Bob Wallace]

World's first trillionaire?

The ability to finance a Mars colony out of pocket.

Pump a few billions of personal money into Boring Co. and finance the first underground Hyperlink.

Interesting times.

[oren]

With TSLA rising almost 10% today, I guess the market liked Musk's expectation of positive profit and cash flow in Q3.

[numerobis]

I think they mostly liked the non-magical expectation to hit 5k/week. Two production lines are producing 500/day, and they’re installing a third line so 5k/week is clearly in reach.

[TerryM]

Tesla's total car sales are down for the month from their March highs. Was this due to the whole factory being down during the Mod3's line(s)being rebuilt, or were the X and S workers still being diverted onto Model 3 builds?
I expect that all of the models will see sales increases in the end of the quarter month of June, but  the more expensive X & S models should also be most profitable. Will the X & S sales match their former highs, or will everything be concentrated on getting more of the Model 3's into buyers hands?
Terry

[numerobis]

You’re presumably comparing the insideEVs numbers? Those are only US sales. For some reason I don’t quite get, Tesla has a tradition of exporting cars in the first two months of the quarter and then selling a bunch in the US market in the third month of the quarter. So May should be compared to February, not March.

Watch last year’s numbers for the pattern:
https://insideevs.com/december-2017-plugin-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/

[TerryM]

You’re presumably comparing the insideEVs numbers? Those are only US sales. For some reason I don’t quite get, Tesla has a tradition of exporting cars in the first two months of the quarter and then selling a bunch in the US market in the third month of the quarter. So May should be compared to February, not March.

Watch last year’s numbers for the pattern:
https://insideevs.com/december-2017-plugin-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/

I hadn't been aware that insideEVs numbers were only for domestic sales.

Using the insideEVs chart you link to the May 2018 numbers for model S and Model X are lower than the 2017 May numbers.
It's this slow down in the delivery of their most profitable products that I was noting.


I assume that Tesla is bumping export sales in order to keep the domestic subsidies coming for as long as possible. Are S&X builds exceeding last years pace?
Terry

[Bob Wallace]

Tesla does not report monthly sales.  The monthly numbers you see are guesses based mostly on VINs. 

Expectations are that Tesla will ship a larger number of cars than usual out of the US in order to hit July 1 under the federal subsidy cap.  That would mean that all US buyers for the rest of 2018 would qualify for the full US subsidy.

[Sigmetnow]

Terry, here are Tesla’s world-wide vehicle production delivery numbers (as noted above, officially reported only by quarter).  Tesla is trying to avoid the very concerns you raised, about numbers of cars being different to different areas month by month.

[Sigmetnow]

“I guess the foot’s on the other hand, now, isn’t it?”
- Airplane!

     European automakers are no longer laughing at Tesla.

Tesla Model S outsells German luxury flagships in Europe

Germany's premium brands are under pressure to accelerate their plans for electric cars after Tesla's Model S outsold the luxury flagships of Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi in Europe for the first time.
…
The Model S has outsold German rivals in the upper-sedan category in the U.S in previous years, but never in Europe.

"This is an alarm for the traditional automakers such as Mercedes. It says a smaller but smarter brand such as Tesla can beat them at home," said Felipe Munoz, an analyst with market researchers JATO Dynamics.

European automakers need to address the electrification faster because customers are showing more and more interest in such vehicles and it seems that the traditional industry "can't deliver on time," Munoz said. …

http://europe.autonews.com/article/20180220/ANE/180219831/tesla-model-s-outsells-german-luxury-flagships-in-europe


Daimler unveils electric eCascadia semi truck to compete with Tesla Semi, launches electric truck group

Daimler, one of the world’s largest truck maker, has been feeling the pressure from Tesla’s electric truck – going as far as saying that they have “passed them by” if the claims Tesla is making about its electric semi truck are true.

[Daimler’s announced trucks, with 62 and 125 miles of range,] weren’t really a competition for Tesla’s electric truck, which is a class 8 with 80,000-lb capacity and a range of up to 500 miles on a single charge.

Now [Daimler] is launching a new unit called E-Mobility Group to consolidates its electric truck efforts.
Martin Daum, head of Trucks and Buses at Daimler [is] the same man who said that ‘Tesla Semi defies laws of physics and is passing us by if true‘, ….

[Daimler] undoubtedly had that truck when he made the comment earlier this year.

They obviously couldn’t reach Tesla Semi’s specs with the eCascadia, which appears to have half the range of the Tesla Semi, so they think that Tesla must be lying about the specs or is “breaking the laws of physics” to get there.

It’s really starting to get interesting and of course, Tesla CEO Elon Musk is uping the ante again by saying that the production version of the Tesla Semi next year will have even better specs than what they unveiled last year.

Place your bets.

https://electrek.co/2018/06/07/daimler-electric-semi-truck-ecascadia-tesla-semi/

[Sigmetnow]

You’re presumably comparing the insideEVs numbers? Those are only US sales. For some reason I don’t quite get, Tesla has a tradition of exporting cars in the first two months of the quarter and then selling a bunch in the US market in the third month of the quarter. So May should be compared to February, not March.

Watch last year’s numbers for the pattern:
https://insideevs.com/december-2017-plugin-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/

It sort of makes sense that cars that have to be shipped overseas are scheduled for early in the quarter, so delivery delays will be less likely to prevent them from being delivered in that quarter.  Whereas North American sales have less farther to go and can be more reliably assumed to be delivered on time.

One reason for the dip at the end of 2016 was that several thousand Teslas were stuck on a boat outside the harbor in China, because the visibility was so bad from horrendous smog, no ships were being permitted to enter the harbor!  You can’t think of everything.

[TerryM]

Thanks all
Am I correct in assuming then that it will be just after the end of this month before we get an official breakdown of total sales by model for the quarter?
Do the end of quarter figures also include $ales by model for the quarter and some sort of estimate of profit/loss by model, or must we wait for the year end figures?
Terry

[Sigmetnow]

Thanks all
Am I correct in assuming then that it will be just after the end of this month before we get an official breakdown of total sales by model for the quarter?
Do the end of quarter figures also include $ales by model for the quarter and some sort of estimate of profit/loss by model, or must we wait for the year end figures?
Terry

Tesla will announce overall production figures, and likely some rate-per-week data, shortly after June-end, because they know we’re all nuts about whether they will have hit their promised 5,000 Model 3 a week number.

But more details will come in the 2Q financial letter and the (now infamous) financial analyst conference call, which won’t happen until early August.

Here’s the 1Q2018 letter, to give you an idea of what to expect:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/6298684043x0x979026/44C49236-1FC2-4FD9-80B1-495ED74E4194/TSLA_Update_Letter_2018-1Q.pdf

[Sigmetnow]

GM to sell Honda advanced electric car batteries for cars in North America

• Made by LG Chem
• Said to be smaller than current EV batteries, and can be charged more quickly and will provide more energy
• GM and Honda said they would "collaborate" on the batteries, with GM supplying cells and modules
• The new batteries are expected to begin production around 2021
• • A key element of GM's new battery design is slashing the amount of cobalt, the most costly ingredient in current lithium-ion battery cells.
• GM and Honda have a partnership to jointly develop electric vehicles with hydrogen fuel cells that are expected to go on sale in 2020.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/07/gm-to-sell-honda-electric-batteries-in-north-america.html

[Bob Wallace]

The new batteries are expected to begin production around 2021
A key element of GM's new battery design is slashing the amount of cobalt, the most costly ingredient in current lithium-ion battery cells.

Good news.  That means that they will be only 4-5 years behind Tesla.   

[Yuha]

Tesla will announce overall production figures, and likely some rate-per-week data, shortly after June-end, because they know we’re all nuts about whether they will have hit their promised 5,000 Model 3 a week number.

But more details will come in the 2Q financial letter and the (now infamous) financial analyst conference call, which won’t happen until early August.

I'm afraid we may have to wait until Q3 results in early November to get a clearer picture of Tesla's status. The Q2 results will still be muddied by the Model 3 production problems as well as the US tax credit threshold and even China's import tariff cut.

[Sigmetnow]

The new batteries are expected to begin production around 2021
A key element of GM's new battery design is slashing the amount of cobalt, the most costly ingredient in current lithium-ion battery cells.

Good news.  That means that they will be only 4-5 years behind Tesla.   

 

Most folks are fine with car companies giving schedules of 2020+ for their EVs, but Tesla is in production and their target slips a few months and people are like — well, you know. 

[numerobis]

At the end of the quarter, Musk will tweet something that implies 6,000 or 10,000 cars per week, some people will lose their bowel control, then someone will notice that the claim was precisely true but people read to much in it; people will once again lose bowel function. This is the Way.

Big picture, EV sales at Tesla and at various Chinese companies we barely ever mention are booming year by year. All the noise is just a discussion of the weather; the climate is headed towards all EVs.

[Sleepy]

Northvolt gets go-ahead for Europe’s largest lithium-ion battery factory
https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3812339/Northvolt-gets-go-ahead-for-Europes-largest-lithium-ion-battery-factory.html

Battery cell maker Northvolt has received the environmental permit for what will be Europe’s largest lithium-ion battery cell factory, with the initial phase of construction to begin on Friday June 8.

Guess they better hurry, BYD is on the move to Europe.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-batteries-europe-factbox/factbox-plans-for-electric-car-battery-production-in-europe-idUSKCN1J10N8

[Sigmetnow]

“Ryder continues to see broadening interest in EVs from businesses of various sizes and industries, and especially from those companies in the parcel, final mile, or beverage delivery space. Additionally, there’s interest from customers who have daily return to base routes of 40 to 100 miles and in markets with incentives available for electric vehicles. Companies continue to identify the potential long-term cost, environmental, and efficiency benefits of EVs. We’re proud to expand our relationship with Chanje and expect additional business announcements based on our sales pipeline. This latest announcement with Chanje is one more way we are demonstrating our commitment to maximizing the performance of our customers’ fleets, while providing the flexibility and convenience to implement EVs into their operations.”

Ryder orders a large fleet of 500 all-electric van from new startup Chanje to build electric rental fleet
https://electrek.co/2018/06/08/ryder-fleet-all-electric-van-chanje-rental-fleet/


I wonder if the company pronounces their name as “change”? 

[Sleepy]

Yes apparently, from your link Sig.