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SteveMDFP

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4400 on: June 23, 2018, 06:27:36 PM »
I posted this video of a March 2018 Tony Seba talk on the "oil, oil, oil" thread.  Here it is again, since it applies equally to cars/vehicles AND to oil.
 
And watch out for those "rear view mirrors" ...... they can be deadly.  ;)

Great talk!  He's persuasive and evidence-centric here.  I don't often bother with video clips, because they're rarely either persuasive or evidence-centric.  Thanks for the heads-up on this one.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4401 on: June 23, 2018, 06:42:25 PM »
Quote
I am a pessimistic person with regards to AGW which is why I disagree with some here.

I'm more realistic than you might assume.  It's like we are lost in the forest with temperatures well below freezing.  We've already lost some toes and fingers to frostbite and stand to lose all and perhaps our lives.

I'm looking for that damn cabin that's out there somewhere so we can get out of the cold and spare some of our digits.  At lease survive.

Pessimism is dangerous.  It can cause us to cease looking.  We need to keep looking until the very last minute.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4402 on: June 23, 2018, 07:54:27 PM »
Link below is to a Twitter thread describing how Leilani Münter explained the facts of life to a very determined, anti-Tesla, ICE car dealer.  Surprise ending! :)
Quote
Currently sitting on a plane next to a guy who works for @SonicAutomotive one of the 4 car dealerships in Charlotte that blocked @Tesla from getting their sales license in North Carolina. ...
https://twitter.com/leilanimunter/status/1009946678202388480
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4403 on: June 23, 2018, 08:01:14 PM »
From May:
20% of Americans Say Their Next Car Will Be Electric, Survey Says
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/20-americans-next-car-electric-074526495.html

From last night:
Quote
Drove by the Tesla factory around midnight, Fri. As far as the eye can see all employee parking lots are 100% full. Model 3s loaded on Semi-Truck at frenetic pace.
https://twitter.com/andreibulu/status/1010447853058023426
Brief video at the lnk.
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numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4404 on: June 23, 2018, 08:25:09 PM »
I said my next car would be electric. Then I blew the head gasket *and* had my exhaust pipe get disconnected over the winter, so my car is scrap.

I got off on a technicality: I had my partner buy the replacement.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4405 on: June 23, 2018, 09:49:42 PM »
I said my next car would be electric. Then I blew the head gasket *and* had my exhaust pipe get disconnected over the winter, so my car is scrap.

I got off on a technicality: I had my partner buy the replacement.
I've suffered a similar calamity. After 1/4 million miles and more the old beast blew the A/C compressor and a front shock.
I'm too frugal to buy new, so I'm now piloting a 2015 VW Passat that sips small amounts of gasoline.
Not the car of my dreams, but probably good for the next decade or more. By then may not be capable of driving anything more powerful than a mobility scooter. ???
Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4406 on: June 23, 2018, 10:10:36 PM »
I just looked online.  There are a number of Nissan Leafs selling for under $5k.

If there were rapid chargers for Nissans I might grab a Leaf.  I'd need to be close to fully charged when heading home from the grocery store since I've got a mountain to climb.

If I was a city-feller who didn't take many long distance drives a year I'd get a used Leaf and rent for trips that had to be driven.

BenB

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4407 on: June 24, 2018, 09:08:19 AM »
Shared humanity, I think your numbers for EVs are out by a few orders of magnitude. 3 million is >0.2% of 1.14 billion, not 0.0000.......

Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4408 on: June 24, 2018, 04:16:52 PM »
Shared humanity, I think your numbers for EVs are out by a few orders of magnitude. 3 million is >0.2% of 1.14 billion, not 0.0000.......

Brain cramp. Thank you.

That number actually makes me feel much better.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4409 on: June 24, 2018, 07:31:55 PM »
Why German companies fail at digital innovation
Quote
We Germans have a huge problem. We invented the car. We have some of the best engineers and 11 of the 100 most valuable brands. We’re the economic powerhouse of the European Union. But we missed a train, an important one. And it is pulling away fast, while we are chugging along with our stuttering diesel cars. That train is digital innovation. ...
https://global.handelsblatt.com/opinion/why-german-companies-fail-in-digital-innovation-901367/
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Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4410 on: June 24, 2018, 08:28:59 PM »
Electric Volkswagen smashes Sebastien Loeb's Pikes Peak record

The old 2012 record will likely be the last set by an ICE vehicle at Pikes Peak:  (1)  ICE vehicles performance deteriorates somewhat the higher the altitude because they don't get as much air, and (2) The EV's have a distinct advantage coming out of every corner due to their torque. 

Quote
Volkswagen's electric I.D. R has smashed Sebastien Loeb's Pikes Peak International Hillclimb record, with Romain Dumas becoming the first driver to make the 12.42-mile course in under eight minutes.

Dumas' run at the Colorado course was delayed after an earlier competitor crashed, injuring a spectator, but still the 40-year-old feels he could have gone faster than his eventual time of 7m57.148s.

Prior to Sunday, Loeb's 2013 record in a 3.2-litre twin-turbo Peugeot 208 had stood at 8m13.878s.

"I had some fog and it was quite humid with some damp in the second section," Dumas said from the 14,115ft summit of Pikes Peak.

"I'm happy with this, but we could have gone quicker if that middle sector had been dry."

https://www.autosport.com/other/news/137008/electric-vw-smashes-loeb-pikes-peak-record
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zizek

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4411 on: June 24, 2018, 08:45:27 PM »
About Robotaxis

Investors are already salivating at the thought of zero-labour-cost ride-hailing.  Billions of dollars are being poured into autonomous vehicles.
https://www.brookings.edu/research/gauging-investment-in-self-driving-cars/

What does that mean for the transition from ICE to EVs? Well, at face value it looks great right. EVs are intrinsically better suited for automation than ICEs. So this means more demand for EVs. So far so good. But things fall apart pretty quickly:

Once automation can be implemented safely, investors are gonna go wild. They are going to sweep up every single low-cost EV vehicle. We are already seeing huge wait lists for EVs and hybrids. And we are already seeing huge fleet purchases
https://electrek.co/2017/11/20/uber-volvo-xc90/

There is absolutely no doubting that EVs will be inaccessible to the average American household until ride hailing companies will meet their fleet demands.

Well, maybe people will drive less with autonomous ride-hailing services?
Maybe. But not really

Quote
"The trends they're looking at are a result of what happened during the 2008 to 2012 recession," said Hartwig. "There was a brief dip in miles traveled during that time."Now, however, the number of drivers is rising, and new vehicle registrations are up as millennials reach their prime earning years. Young adults are no longer living with their parents or opting not to drive. "They're buying homes and living in the suburbs where you can't get an Uber or a Lyft," he added.
Hartwig went on to say that in 2013, for example, 195 million private passenger vehicles were insured and by 2014, that number was 198 million.
That figure is probably continuing to rise as millennials become an even more significant and growing part of the motoring public. "My kids are a prime example," he said. "My kids never said 'I want to Uber it.' They want cars. When people have the means, they get behind the wheel."
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/are-americans-really-driving-less/

On the other hand, this study claims that people are less likely to purchase vehicles when using sharing services:
http://www.apta.com/resources/reportsandpublications/Documents/APTA-Shared-Mobility.pdf

But here is the problem, ridesharing prices do NOT reflect their actual costs. CompaniesBURNING cash from depressing their prices to push out competitors.  Not only that, their drivers are being paid extreme poverty wages,
https://www.wired.com/2014/07/ubers-brilliant-strategy-to-make-itself-too-big-to-ban/
https://gizmodo.com/mit-study-uber-and-lyft-drivers-make-less-than-4-an-h-1823455747
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/uber-spent-10-7-billion-in-nine-years-does-it-have-enough-to-show-for-it

And here’s the kicker. Ridesharing services has increased congestion.
https://www.archdaily.com/889819/studies-show-ridesharing-services-like-uber-lyft-actually-increase-congestion-in-cities


And it gets better! Ridesharing is reducing the use of public transportation.
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/wj4n8q/uber-lyft-are-making-public-transit-worse-ridesharing-cities

Oh yes, it gets even better. We’re seeing cities completely opt out of public transportation for privatized ridesharing!
https://www.theverge.com/2018/3/12/17109708/via-arlington-texas-rideshare-app-replaces-bus

And I’m sure once these private ride-hailing companies have a complete monopoly on transportation they’re going to keep costs low and play nice with regulators and policy makers.  Maybe not
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/apr/12/why-everyone-hates-uber-seven-step-playbook
https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-awkward-dislike-mass-transit/


The only thing autonomous vehicles will do is add more vehicles to the road.

Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4412 on: June 24, 2018, 09:02:28 PM »
Quote
I believe EVs might follow a similar adoption track — I admit, it’s hard to visualize at this point!  The next three years should see the curve start to go vertical.

A person walks into a showroom in 2021 or 2022.  Salesman walks up to "Sebastian" and says....

"I have some cars to show you.  Ice and EV.  The EV has the following traits:

1)  Slightly LESS expensive than ICE vehicles
2)  EV costs about 10% of what ICE vehicles cost to run
3)  EV costs only about 10% of what ICE vehicles cost to maintain them
4)  EV's are quicker off the line and have immediate torque
5)  EV's don't smell like gasoline and are extremely quiet
6)  EV's have more interior room because you don't have the "tunnel" running the length of the car."
7)  EV's resale value will be much better than an ICE vehicle

Which car would you like "Sebastian"?
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zizek

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4413 on: June 24, 2018, 09:12:34 PM »
... EVs will take decades to replace ICEs. ...

It took only 15 years for cell phone ownership to reach 90% of the U.S. population.  And think of all the infrastructure that required.  We didn’t need to wait for cell phones to “replace” landlines. 

Most new EV adopters have the infrastructure they need already, in their garage.  And public charging is growing fast, to support them and the rest.  I believe EVs might follow a similar adoption track — I admit, it’s hard to visualize at this point!  The next three years should see the curve start to go vertical.
These are really bad examples. All those technologies significantly improved the quality of life for the consumer.  There's a big difference between not owning a fridge and owning one. not having electricity and having electricity. Not having internet and having internet.

Cell phones cost the consumers nothing (literally nothing with a contract). And installing the infrastructure is so easy that developing nations just skipped over doing lan line. Why install wires to every household when you can just build a tower where convenient.

You would have a very difficult time arguing the benefits (for the individual) of owning an EV vs. an ICE in comparison to the benefits of having something like access to the internet vs. not having the internet. In fact; due to high costs, limited range, poor infrastructure, many Americans would reduce their quality of life if they replaced their ICE with an EV. 

zizek

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4414 on: June 24, 2018, 09:32:30 PM »
I hate sounding like a debby downer. But so many people in the forum need to be far more realistic.

I strongly believe EVs are critical to solving climate change. I think they're amazing. I'm currently converting my motorcycle to electric, I'll do the same to my vehicle. And my career path is linked to the technology. 

But the problem is that "green" companies get a free pass for their bullshit. not a single ounce of criticism for the manufactures (tesla) and early adopters (ride hailing). If the behavior of musk was displayed by any other CEO, he would be excoriated by the public. but because he panders to the futurists, he is hailed as a god.

The only EV dealership just closed down in my poor ass city.  Public transportation here is a joke. The city is bending-over-backwards to build more suburbs.  If you don't have a car, you're fucked.
So excuse me if I seem bitter in these threads. People telling me that we should yield to Musk & Uber. Let these corporations control more of our lives. Let them be our saviours. Rich assholes like Musk and his investors got us into this mess. Now we have to beg for them to save us from climate change. We're like a bunch of abused dogs. It makes me sick.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4415 on: June 24, 2018, 10:10:46 PM »
Yea VW (re Pikes Peak record speed)
Some background for those who are new to electric vehicles.  (I'm catering to those on this forum over 110 years old...)
Quote
Electric motorsport (also known as electric racing or electric motor racing) is a category of motor sport that consists of the racing of electric powered vehicles for competition, either in all-electric series, or in open-series against vehicles with different power trains. Very early in the history of automobiles, electric cars held several performance records over internal combustion engine cars, such as land speed records, but fell behind in performance during the first decade of the 20th century. With the renaissance of electric vehicles during the early 21st century, notable electric-only racing series have been developed, for both cars and motorcycles, including for example, the FIA Formula E Championship. In other racing events, electric vehicles are competing alongside combustion engine vehicles, for example in the Isle of Man TT and the Pikes Peak International Hill Climb, and in some cases winning outright.
wikipedia
I watched the video (up-thread) of the 2012 then-record holder race - something like 90 mph. The new record is something like 93.7 mph (just over 150 km/hr). Curiously, Henry Ford in 1904 traveled a mile going 91.37 mph (147.05 km/hr) - see, modern cars are faster!  ::) :P
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4416 on: June 24, 2018, 10:47:14 PM »
I hate sounding like a debby downer.
...
The only EV dealership just closed down in my poor ass city.  Public transportation here is a joke. The city is bending-over-backwards to build more suburbs.  If you don't have a car, you're fucked.
So excuse me if I seem bitter in these threads. People telling me that we should yield to Musk & Uber. Let these corporations control more of our lives. Let them be our saviours. Rich assholes like Musk and his investors got us into this mess. Now we have to beg for them to save us from climate change. We're like a bunch of abused dogs. It makes me sick.

Zizek, the angry tone and expletive-ridden content of your posts makes visiting the Forum a pain rather than a pleasure.  I am setting you to Ignore.

Have a nice day.

- Sigmetnow
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4417 on: June 25, 2018, 05:16:39 AM »
You might want to learn what a Ponzi scheme is.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4418 on: June 25, 2018, 05:32:58 AM »
... EVs will take decades to replace ICEs. ...

It took only 15 years for cell phone ownership to reach 90% of the U.S. population. 

Only in the interests of a greater perspective of the world as it really is, regarding climate change, resource depletion, and energy use.

After 250 years since the Industrial Revolution millions of mothers in India are still using Cow Dung to cook the family meal in a hole in the ground outside their hut.

Far fewer people in this world care about the luxuries of the U.S. population than you may have imagined. :)

People don't cook and heat with dried dung out of choice.  It is what they have to use.  Given their choice they would like to live in a comfortable house and have some of the other things the more fortunate people like us enjoy.

BTW, a mud stove is not a hole in the ground.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4419 on: June 25, 2018, 06:05:41 AM »
I've spent extensive time in Thailand and I've never seen a kerosene can stove.  I've never seen anyone cook using kerosene.

Most people cook with bottled gas.  In the countryside where bottled gas is too difficult or expensive people cook over wood or charcoal.


oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4420 on: June 25, 2018, 08:06:24 AM »
Time fore my rare ad-hominem again.
Zizek's posts don't belong in this forum. It feels like kindergarten.
And ASILurker - some of your posts make perfect sense, yet others of your posts (as the chain of recent ones in this thread) are in total irrefutable generalities and use a very bad tone.
I have read many posts in this forum that I do not agree with, by people I highly admire. And I usually feel free to engage these people and achieve a good level of discussion. Many times new knowledge has shifted my perspective. My problem is not with the opinions made, but with the way they are made. This is a science-oriented forum and attracts people of such orientation, while there are many other locations on the Internet where crap is posted freely. But it doesn't take many rotten apples to ruin the barrel.
I believe moderation is required.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4421 on: June 25, 2018, 08:32:24 AM »
I've spent extensive time in Thailand and I've never seen a kerosene can stove.  I've never seen anyone cook using kerosene.

Most people cook with bottled gas.  In the countryside where bottled gas is too difficult or expensive people cook over wood or charcoal.

So much for your ideas about what "extensive" means and so much for your inability to correctly READ what is written in other people's posts.

Bob, you are in a Class of your own!

<snipped the sarcasm out of this one as well; N.>

As for kerosene stoves, if they were popular I think I would have encountered at least one in the (cumulative approximately) two years I've spent in Thailand.  I've been all over the country, from staying in places raging from the King Bhumibol's summer palace to spending several days in a farming village which had no electricity or running water. 

I know the smell of kerosene very well.  I lived on a sailboat for about five years and cooked all my meals on a kero stove.  I've never smelled even a whiff of kero in Thailand.

I've never seen a kero tin nor kero for sale in Thailand.  What I have seen quite frequently, are ~5 gallon square tins of cooking oil.  The kind you eat, not what you use for fire.  I've never seen anyone make one of these tins into a stove.  But they do make decent sitting stools.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2018, 12:42:06 PM by Neven »

numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4422 on: June 25, 2018, 10:57:13 AM »
Zizek: you believe despite the data you bring that self-driving vehicles have no advantage.

But your own data shows that they reduce private car ownership, shifting it into cars with higher utilization.

We can thus replace several private gas-guzzlers with a single self-driving EV. That will produce more benefit than replacing a single gasoline car with a single EV.

That’s the whole argument of why there’s a synergy.

Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4423 on: June 25, 2018, 10:59:12 AM »
I believe moderation is required.

I agree. ASILurker, although I probably agree with you most of the time, sarcasm that gets personal, simply isn't useful. I've snipped two of your comments.

We've been over the reason why some of us have problems with Bob Wallace's comments, and I think that's fine. There's no use in making it a war cry.

If we all stick around, we can observe together how things develop and adjust our opinions accordingly.
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Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4424 on: June 25, 2018, 12:37:31 PM »
You guys should get married.  ;)

Come on, let's call it quits.
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oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4425 on: June 25, 2018, 01:04:05 PM »
I'm not sure what you mean by MVs. But in any case Shared Humanity posted some good calculations up-thread of current and projected numbers.

numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4426 on: June 25, 2018, 01:16:56 PM »
100 million Mountain Views a year would be disastrous. Even just one Google is a lot for this world.

wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4427 on: June 25, 2018, 01:19:22 PM »
I'm not sure why kerosene use in Thailand came up here, but Index Mundi indicates that they had a spike in production and consumption of kerosene in 2006, so if one visited then, one would probably have seen (and smelt) lots of it, otherwise maybe not so much.

https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?country=th&product=kerosene&graph=consumption

https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?country=th&product=kerosene&graph=production
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Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4428 on: June 25, 2018, 02:40:46 PM »
I need a bit of help/advice.

I've been looking at EVs quite a lot these past months. Our Opel Combo CNG is now 10 years old. We had another one that couldn't get through the motor vehicle test because of a speck of corrosion on the CNG tanks two years ago, which essentially amounted to total loss (I sold it to some Bulgarian car dealer for 700 euros). We then bought the same model in January 2017, which didn't have any corrosion on the tanks (yet).

The next motor vehicle test is due next January, and so I was thinking that maybe it was a good time to buy an EV before that, also because incentives are still good now in Austria, but I'm not sure what will happen next year.

The problem is that there aren't any models that suit our situation, or that are similar to what we have now. There's the Renault Kangoo (similar to Opel Combo), but I don't trust Renault, and the Kangoo doesn't have much of a range, charges slowly, and you have to lease the battery (my initial reaction is I don't like that, but maybe I'm wrong).

There's the Nissan e-NV200/Evalia, which is a bit too big, doesn't have quite the range I'm looking for, even with the battery upgrade to 40 kWh (160-200 km, winter-summer), and it is quite pricey (35-40K euros). So far, the Hyundai Ioniq appeals to me most, at around 30K for 250 km range, but it's probably still a tad too small (for the 1-2 times a year we drive to either Croatia or The Netherlands for a holiday/family visit).

Actually, a small car would be fine, because - aside from the holidays - we drive at most 125 km on a single day (when I have to bring my daughter to basketball training, which unfortunately she can only do in Graz). So I looked for a small EV with a towing hook, figuring we could tow a small trailer on holidays, but there aren't any models with a towing hook (because of the batteries). 

And that's when I ran into this car/prototype: the Sion from Sono Motors.



I actually knew about the car because it had been mentioned here by Sig, when the presentation of the car went somewhat viral, mostly because of the solar modules plastered all over the car. The story is sort of classical and goes as follows: Young Germans come up with idea, build a prototype in their garage, do crowdfunding, build two better prototypes, show them all over the country (and parts of Europe) to get at least 5000 pre-orders (minimum 500 euros pre-payment), so they can get enough partners to build the cars and start delivering in 2019.

They have actually managed to do all this, with 5712 reservations so far, and a serious partner company called ElringKlinger AG building the batteries for them. They're now looking for or in talks with a partner that has a production line to build the cars for them.

Pros (for me):
-It's exactly the right size for my family. We probably wouldn't even need a towing hook, but it's optional.
-The range of 250 km is also optimal for us.
-They say the car will be V2G-ready, which appeals to me.
-There's a normal socket in the car, which means I can work while my daughter plays basketball or whatever.
-I like the solar panel gimmick (maximum extra 30 km per day), even though it's not entirely clear if the car gets charged while driving (when it's sunny), or only when it's parked.
-It's a minimalistic car, that uses readily available parts from other manufacturers (cheaper), and a manual comes with it, which means you should be able to do some of the repairs yourself. You get to be much more independent than when buying a car from a traditional manufacturer with dealerships etc.
-People who have driven it are very enthusiastic.
-The price tag is only 16K euros without 35 kWh battery, and 20k euros battery included. They might even upgrade the battery, but have promised a range of at least 250 km.

Cons (for me):
-If the solar panels don't charge the car while driving, I don't really need them, because I have a PV array on my roof.
-Some other gimmicks, like special moss for air filtering, is entirely superfluous IMO.
-Will the car have many problems? And if yes, how will that be solved?
-But the most important doubt factor: Will they be able to deliver? It's all very cute and they're milking the millennial feel-good aspect for what it's worth, but I can't help but notice the amateurism as well in the videos I've watched so far. It reminds me a bit of myself when I took on a project to build sustainable low-power computers 10 years ago. You try to act like you're a real company and you say your goal is to change the industry, but you're actually some douchebag tinkering in a bedroom.  ;)
-A lot is still unclear as of yet, no guarantees whatsoever. On the other hand, they do have 40 people working for the company, they have the partnership with ElringKlinger for the batteries, and partnerships with other serious companies for the LED car lights and software, they have working prototypes, and almost 6000 people have ordered one.

So, do I hope my Opel Combo CNG gets through the motor vehicle test in January and then holds out until 2020 when we may get a Sion? This is also highly uncertain, of course, and means one can lose the 500 euros prepayment.

Or do I buy an EV (Ioniq, Evalia) in the coming months? Or a small (second-hand) one and then rent a car for the holidays?

I had to drive a lot this year because my daughter could no longer play basketball in our town and had to move to a club in Graz, which plays on the national level as well, and so we had to drive to various parts of Austria during some weekends.

I feel disgusted with myself every kilometre of the way, because I'm totally fed up with burning fossil fuels (even if CNG is better/less bad than petrol). I don't know if I can or want to wait another two years.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2018, 03:01:34 PM by Neven »
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4429 on: June 25, 2018, 03:12:33 PM »
If you can afford it, and you need it soon, why not spring for an EV that exists?

I opted for a second ICEV because I’m driving a couple thousand km a year; far better to let someone driving ten times as much get the EV. Also, we bought an old car (same model as the RIPmobile, but two years younger).

Solar panels on a car will only slightly increase the range while driving, it barely matters whether they’re active during drive or not. But I don’t know why they wouldn’t be active all the time.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4430 on: June 25, 2018, 03:14:07 PM »
Nissan Leaf 60kW would give you the range you want, and is a bit bigger than the Ioniq. Rumours are that it will be out later this year as a 2019 model year. It doesn't have a tow hitch, but the extra size might mean you don't need it.

The Kia Niro will start to be delivered very soon, and should have the range and size you need, as well as (I think) a tow hitch. It's a "cheap" brand, but if you don't mind that, it might meet your needs quite well. The biggest problem may be waiting - like the Ioniq, there are big queues to get it, and Hyundai/Kia don't seem committed to meeting demand.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4431 on: June 25, 2018, 03:48:00 PM »
If you can afford it, and you need it soon, why not spring for an EV that exists?

Because the EVs that exist don't meet the requirements we have, and/or are expensive.

Quote
Solar panels on a car will only slightly increase the range while driving, it barely matters whether they’re active during drive or not. But I don’t know why they wouldn’t be active all the time.

On the Sono website it is stated:

Quote
viSono is based on the idea of “energy harvesting”. Through the power of the sun, the battery recharges itself. Thereby the Sion can cover up to 30 kilometers per day – for free.
The integrated solar cells enable the Sion to go without recharging for several days. A total of 330 SunPower cells are producing 1,208 W peak at an efficiency of 24 %.

This amount could provide power for up to 40 km in one day. However, this is a theoretical maximum value which is highly unlikely to be achieved under real-life circumstances.
For the solar panels, we use monocrystalline silicon cells. The modular units are pasted on a substructure, similar to the assemblage of a conventional windshield. Thereby the modular units can simply be exchanged.

The selection of the best material has the highest priority. The components have to meet the following requirements: a service life of at least eight years, resistance against harmful environmental influences like ultraviolet rays and water, break resistance and a low weight.

Usually, solar cells are laminated on top of 2 to 5 mm of glass. However, by comparison, glass has a higher weight and is less break resistible.

For viSono we, therefore, use polycarbonate as support material. It is light, considerably more shatterproof and has a transparency index of .86 (glass: .8 to .9).

I don't find 30 km negligible, but yeah, it's still a gimmick.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4432 on: June 25, 2018, 04:09:09 PM »
Nissan Leaf 60kW would give you the range you want, and is a bit bigger than the Ioniq. Rumours are that it will be out later this year as a 2019 model year. It doesn't have a tow hitch, but the extra size might mean you don't need it.

The 40 kWh actually already delivers the range I'm looking for (250 km and up). I have no range anxiety, because my Opel Combo CNG also has a range of 300-350 km. Filling up is faster than EV, of course.

And to be entirely truthful, the Opel Combo CNG also has an extra 100-140 km range if you switch to petrol.

Quote
The Kia Niro will start to be delivered very soon, and should have the range and size you need, as well as (I think) a tow hitch. It's a "cheap" brand, but if you don't mind that, it might meet your needs quite well. The biggest problem may be waiting - like the Ioniq, there are big queues to get it, and Hyundai/Kia don't seem committed to meeting demand.

I don't want a SUV, especially if it has like a million buttons that can break. That's also why Tesla isn't the thing for me.

What I like about the Sion, is that it's minimalistic.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2018, 04:15:07 PM by Neven »
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4433 on: June 25, 2018, 04:17:39 PM »
I think the Niro is marketed as a crossover/CUV, and it's certainly not a genuine SUV. It seems that almost everything gets referred to an SUV these days, because that's apparently what most people want.  I have no idea about how many (or few) buttons it has.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4434 on: June 25, 2018, 04:47:20 PM »
...
I don't want a SUV, especially if it has like a million buttons that can break. That's also why Tesla isn't the thing for me.

What I like about the Sion, is that it's minimalistic.

If you want minimalistic rather than buttons, Tesla is just the thing for you! ;) :D

And if you want towing: When configured with 22″ wheels, the Model X can tow 3,500 pounds and when configured with 20″ wheels, the towing capacity increases to 5,000 pounds, according to Tesla.

There’s a store and a supercharger in Graz-Maggstraße. ;)  Check it out sometime.
https://www.tesla.com/findus?v=2&bounds=49.63936136911396%2C19.444850143738904%2C44.58284537529111%2C8.194850143738904&zoom=7&filters=supercharger&search=Graz%2C%20Austria


Seriously, if you want to buy a car this year that will serve you for many years, keep an eye out for a used Tesla.  If you don’t mind investing in a “bridge” EV to tide you over until 2020 or so when you will buy another one better suited to your needs, I’d recommend a used LEAF as probably the easiest to find now at a good price.  Consider whether a used Volt might do, also.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4435 on: June 25, 2018, 06:39:32 PM »
I am patiently waiting for Telsa (model 3 specifically) to arrive to my country. Every short trip I take in the car around the city pains me.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4436 on: June 25, 2018, 07:11:31 PM »
Which car would you like "Sebastian"?

"Wow! I want an EV!", says Sebastian.

"Fine. Just sign right here. You can expect to take delivery in June of 2024." responds the helpful salesperson.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4437 on: June 25, 2018, 07:35:30 PM »
Quote
  Salesman walks up to "Sebastian" and says....

"I have some cars to show you.  Ice and EV.  The EV has the following traits:

1)  Slightly LESS expensive than ICE vehicles
2)  EV costs about 10% of what ICE vehicles cost to run
3)  EV costs only about 10% of what ICE vehicles cost to maintain them
4)  EV's are quicker off the line and have immediate torque
5)  EV's don't smell like gasoline and are extremely quiet
6)  EV's have more interior room because you don't have the "tunnel" running the length of the car."
7)  EV's resale value will be much better than an ICE vehicle

1) The average price of a new car in the US is $32,169.  The MSRP for a BMW 3 Series is $34,900.  The MSRP for a Mercedes C Class is $40,250.  The post federal subsidy of a Tesla 3 is $27,500.

2) Probably a bit low but cheaper to run an EV.

3) Probably a bit low but otherwise correct.

4) Real

5) Real
 
6) Real

7) Real

Waiting until 2024 - unreal. 

If you reserve a Model 3 then you may have to wait about a year and you'll likely miss out on the federal subsidy.  But you'll end up paying about the average US car cost, perhaps a bit more than for a BMW but less than for a Mercedes.  The cost difference between $32,169 will be quickly recovered via fuel savings.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4438 on: June 25, 2018, 08:35:17 PM »
...
 The cost difference between $32,169 will be quickly recovered via fuel savings.

As will your car carbon footprint. :)  IIRC, about four to six months of average driving a new EV (depending on your energy source), and the lifetime carbon emissions for production and operation will forever be less than that ICE car’s total.
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« Reply #4439 on: June 25, 2018, 08:44:23 PM »
Despite lower revenue due to lagging diesel sales, JLR raises spending on EV plans, promising pure electric versions — “if there is enough demand” — after previously saying it would limit some to hybrids.

Jaguar Land Rover Is Dependent on Diesel. It Wants to Change That
Quote
Jaguar Land Rover is raising investment by about a quarter over the next three years as part of a plan by the diesel-dependent automaker to be able to offer electric versions of all its models.
...
The higher spending comes even as the automaker said sales and revenue in the year to March “did not grow as much as we planned” because of customers’ wariness about buying diesel-fueled vehicles in the U.K. and Europe. The company said margins and profitability were “well below” internal targets and led to negative cash flow after investment.

JLR is increasing spending to be able to produce by 2025 three versions of all its models, including those powered by fossil fuels, electric batteries or a combination of both, according to the presentation. The company will only offer fully electric versions if there is enough customer demand, a spokesman said. Diesel vehicles accounted for about 87 percent of the company’s sales in the U.K. and Europe in the fourth quarter of 2018, a high level in light of the unfolding scandal about emissions that erupted in 2015 at Volkswagen AG and has cooled customer demand.

All six of JLR’s U.K. manufacturing platforms at plants in the West Midlands and in Halewood, Merseyside will be retooled to produce vehicles with the new engines, the spokesman said. The carmaker has previously said every vehicle it launches from 2020 will have an electrified element, though this may mean hybrid cars rather than fully electric ones in some cases.

The company also said it plans to open a software, information technology and engineering center in Manchester, northern England, to work on connected-car technology.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-25/jaguar-land-rover-raises-spending-in-bid-to-offer-electric-cars
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4440 on: June 25, 2018, 08:58:24 PM »
We have been fortunate in the US to have some great history behind some of our sports hero's of the past.  Maybe now is a good time to see what a famous New York Yankee from the past would say about THE FUTURE..... In the US we call these "Yogi-ism's".  He played for the New York Yankees.... I think he was a catcher.  Interestingly enough, these apply in our transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy (and EV's):

1)  "When you come to a fork in the road .... TAKE IT."

2)  "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

3)  "If you don't know where you are going, you might end up somewhere else."

4)  "You can observe a lot, just by watching."

5)  "The future aint what it used to be."


 ;) ;) ;)

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/09/the-50-greatest-yogi-berra-quotes
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« Reply #4441 on: June 25, 2018, 08:59:37 PM »
...
Quote
"Wow! I want an EV!", says Sebastian.

"Fine. Just sign right here. You can expect to take delivery in June of 2024." responds the helpful salesperson.


Per Tesla.com, today:
Model S and Model X new and used inventory are available in under 14 days.
“Build your own” Model S or X
Available in 1–2 months.

Model 3:
Long Range Battery, Rear-Wheel Drive
4-6 months

Long Range Battery, All-Wheel Drive
6-9 months

Standard Battery
6-12 months

Outside North America, you are probably looking at 12-18 months.

In the U.S., over 1,000 each of new Honda Clarity, Nissan LEAF, Chevy Bolt, Chevy Volt were sold in May alone. Almost 3,000 Prius Prime.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2018, 09:04:54 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4442 on: June 25, 2018, 11:16:15 PM »
Everyone keeps selling me on the advantages of an EV over an ICE. I need no convincing nor do I need to be convinced that we need to eliminate the purchase of ICE's entirely. We act as if all we need do is educate consumers and then no one will purchase ICE's. This is not the problem.

Americans bought 17.13 million vehicles last year. We are on target to purchase slightly less than that this year. So lets educate consumers so that all of us realize what a good deal an EV is. Exactly where will these consumers find these 17 million vehicles?

(We should ignore for the time being that I have not yet figured out how to run an extension cord from my 3rd floor apartment to my car parked a block away.)

We will be putting over 16.5 million new ICE vehicles on the roads this year, nearly the same amount next year, and that is only in the U.S. The current roll out of EV's is simply not sufficient to effect a transition quickly enough.

Normal market responses, accounting for the tastes and preferences of the consumer, and patiently waiting for the infrastructure needed to allow all consumers to consider an EV is not going to cut it.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4443 on: June 26, 2018, 12:07:13 AM »


Which car would you like "Sebastian"?

Why are you picking on me? ??? ;D

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« Reply #4444 on: June 26, 2018, 12:21:25 AM »
Quote
We will be putting over 16.5 million new ICE vehicles on the roads this year, nearly the same amount next year, and that is only in the U.S.

Are you sure about that? ;) Tesla decimated the luxury market with the Model S, and the Model 3 looks to be doing the same with the higher-volume small/entry-level sedans.  Some ICE model sales in these categories have already declined.  Land Rover SUV diesel sales have sunk enough they are grudgingly pouring more money into future EV models.  Tesla is seeing lots of Camrys and Accords as trade-ins.

One out of five Americans say their next car will be an EV.  Tesla hasn‘t even begun advertising to the general public yet.  I’d say a good number of those expected ICE sales may not materialize.  We’re at an inflection point, so using the past as a guide is quite risky!
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4445 on: June 26, 2018, 12:21:40 AM »
LOL ... see what you get for leading me to Tony Seba? 😁
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4446 on: June 26, 2018, 12:23:05 AM »
Quote
Normal market responses, accounting for the tastes and preferences of the consumer, and patiently waiting for the infrastructure needed to allow all consumers to consider an EV is not going to cut it.

I don't agree.  The market can and almost certainly will be flipped by the cheaper to buy, cheaper to operate nature of EVs.

It's 2025.  I'm going to buy a new car.  Why would I pay extra for a car that cost more per mile to drive?

Market flip.

In the US over 50% of all drivers already have an outlet where they park.  California utilities are helping finance tens of thousands of charge outlets in workplace and apartments parking lots.

You might not be able to charge when you're home if you don't have a parking lot but have to scout out a place on the street.  You might be one of the 'charge at work/school' drivers.  Or, worst case, you might have to go to a rapid charger for a half hour once or twice a week.

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« Reply #4447 on: June 26, 2018, 01:20:21 AM »
“First of all we have to be honest: Tesla knocked on the door and shook up the industry.  It was a wake-up call.”

Audi postpones electric SUV launch in wake of CEO arrest
Quote
Audi has cancelled the official launch event for its all-electric SUV, the e-tron, citing “organisational issues” one week after chief executive Rupert Stadler was arrested.

Audi, Volkswagen’s most profitable unit, said late on Monday that the Audi Summit, set for August 30 in Brussels where the e-tron will be built, has been cancelled. Instead, the summit will take place at an undetermined time and location in the United States.

The cancelled event is significant because the summit was supposed to demonstrate how Audi was ahead of rivals BMW and Mercedes in the race to electrify its fleet. But six days ago the company appointed an interim chief executive, Abraham Schot, after Mr Stadler requested he be relieved of his duties.

Munich-based prosecutors took Mr Stadler into custody last week for his alleged role in the diesel scandal, which has cost the VW Group more than $26bn in damages. Prosecutors named him a suspect on May 30 and raided his private apartment two weeks ago. Mr Stadler is being held in pre-trial detention, with prosecutors citing a risk that he could obstruct justice.

Interviewed by the FT just weeks before his home was raided, Mr Stadler had highlighted the importance of the Audi Summit as a milestone event for the carmaker as it emerges from the diesel scandal and blazes a new path.

“Believe me, it’s not just an electric car,” he said, “it’s a starting point for the next quantum leap.”

Mr Stadler was proud that Audi, the third-largest producer of luxury cars following Mercedes and BMW, was coming out with an electric SUV before its German rivals. “And that is in spite of diesel issues,” he said.

He then added the diesel crisis had actually been an “acceleration machine” to shake executives out of complacency. It forced everyone to ask, he said, “How do we get out of this mess?”

Last month Audi said it planned to sell 800,000 pure electric and hybrid cars by 2025. ...
https://www.ft.com/content/d2290f98-78ae-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d
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« Reply #4448 on: June 26, 2018, 01:51:24 AM »
BMW executives often emphasized that battery cells are a critical part of the automaker’s electrification plans. But when I asked if they would make the jump to manufacturing their own cells, they said that it is a big commitment and Juraschek added that they wouldn’t want to upset their suppliers.
     One thing that BMW has no issue bringing in-house is electric drivetrains.


A closer look at BMW’s next-gen electric powertrain technology coming in the iX3
Quote
BMW’s fifth generation electric powertrain technology is going to enable the company’s first long-range electric vehicle.  It features more integrated, powerful, and yet compact drivetrain and battery packs with higher energy capacity.

Battery Packs, Modules, and Cells

Today, BMW’s biggest battery pack is the i3’s 33 kWh pack, but the fifth generation technology will include battery packs with more than twice the energy capacity.  The BMW iX3, which was unveiled in China earlier this year, is going to be the first vehicle to feature this new powertrain.

It was already announced that the electric SUV will feature a 70 kWh battery pack.
https://electrek.co/2018/06/25/bmw-next-gen-electric-powertrain-technology-ix3/
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4449 on: June 26, 2018, 01:59:46 AM »
One out of five Americans say their next car will be an EV.  Tesla hasn‘t even begun advertising to the general public yet.  I’d say a good number of those expected ICE sales may not materialize.  We’re at an inflection point, so using the past as a guide is quite risky!

Not sure where you got this since there is no link but lets assume this is the case. So, of the 17 million cars to be purchased in 2019, 1 in 5 customers will want to purchase EV's. Please tell me where we are going to find 3.5 million EV's to sell them?

I am not using the past as a guide. I am simply saying that car manufacturers will simply not be able to provide customers with these vehicles even if they want to buy one.