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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2500 on: October 23, 2017, 06:58:38 PM »
U.S.:  United Auto Workers (UAW) wakes up to job threat posed by electric cars, as German unions have already

Oh, the GOP is going to be all conflicted with that. On the one hand, EVs mean lower profits for their oil buddies, or (among the true believers), a win for the evil communist islamic atheist liberals. On the other hand, EVs mean bad news for the unions.

The question for the big automakers: how many millions of dollars should they spend installing new robots to make their ICE engines cheaper to manufacture... knowing the entire line will become obsolete over the next decade?
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2501 on: October 23, 2017, 07:19:07 PM »
I would imagine all (almost all) major car manufactures have now developed a plan for fading out ICEs.  I would imagine no significant money is being spent on new engine designs.  At this point move that money to EV development and continue to use existing ICE designs.

That's what we saw in the film to digital transition.  At one point, when film cameras were still selling well, new features for film cameras dried up.  It appeared that all the development efforts had moved to digital.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2502 on: October 23, 2017, 08:09:06 PM »
Seriously, will new diesel buses even be available in 2025?

12 major cities pledge to only buy all-electric buses starting in 2025
Quote
Along with the pledge to buy electric buses, here are a few other initiatives in the agreement, called ‘C40 Fossil-Fuel-Free Streets Declaration’, revealed today:

• Increase rates of walking, cycling and the use of public and shared transport.
• Reduce the number of polluting vehicles on city streets.
• Lead by example by procuring zero emission vehicles for city fleets.
• Collaborate with suppliers, fleet operators and businesses to accelerate the shift to zero emissions vehicles and reduce vehicle miles in cities.
https://electrek.co/2017/10/23/electric-buses-12-major-cities-pledge-2025/
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ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2503 on: October 23, 2017, 08:15:27 PM »
I would imagine all (almost all) major car manufactures have now developed a plan for fading out ICEs.  I would imagine no significant money is being spent on new engine designs.  At this point move that money to EV development and continue to use existing ICE designs.

Except if it were true they'd be spending more on EV research than on ICE engine research but in reality they are spending half as much.  For example:
https://electrek.co/2017/04/28/vw-invesment-electric-vehicles/
The car manufacturers make huge announcements of EV research spending but it continues to be a small fraction of what they spend on ICE technology.

wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2504 on: October 23, 2017, 10:25:04 PM »
Sig wrote: "will new diesel buses even be available in 2025? "

Dunno, but these guys seem to be counting on them being available by next year:

http://www.govtech.com/fs/transportation/Minneapolis-Metro-Transit-to-Add-Electric-Buses-in-2019.html
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Paddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2505 on: October 24, 2017, 12:18:10 PM »
Singapore introduces hard cap on car numbers: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/24/singapore-no-more-cars-allowed-on-the-road-government-says

Quote
Singapore, one of the most expensive places in the world to buy a vehicle, has announced it will freeze the number of private cars on its roads from next year but vowed to expand public transport.

The growth cap for all passenger cars and motorcycles will be cut from 0.25% a year to zero with effect from February, the Land Transport Authority (LTA) said.

rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2506 on: October 25, 2017, 09:48:52 PM »
Daimler Steals Tesla’s Thunder With Heavy-Duty Electric Truck

The competition is coming .....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-25/daimler-steals-tesla-s-thunder-with-heavy-duty-electric-truck

Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2507 on: October 25, 2017, 10:01:33 PM »
The "mojo" for electric vehicles of ALL TYPES continues to grow....  Another 3 - 5 years of price drops AND improved efficiency in battery's......and the ICE is on ice.  They really will disappear quickly after that in the new vehicle market.


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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2508 on: October 25, 2017, 10:30:25 PM »
Daimler Steals Tesla’s Thunder With Heavy-Duty Electric Truck

The competition is coming .....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-25/daimler-steals-tesla-s-thunder-with-heavy-duty-electric-truck

Good to see Daimler weighing in with a big truck.  Even better that it is not being slammed for having "only" a range of up to 220 miles (350 km) -- many distribution routes are shorter than that.  But when Reuters reported the Tesla semi would have a range of 200-300 miles, that was widely panned as not being enough.  (Although Elon Musk has said the actual Tesla Semi range is farther than anything that's been reported. ;) )
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2509 on: October 25, 2017, 10:44:11 PM »
Daimler Steals Tesla’s Thunder With Heavy-Duty Electric Truck

The competition is coming .....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-25/daimler-steals-tesla-s-thunder-with-heavy-duty-electric-truck

Yep, Daimler has totally blown Tesla out of the water by releasing an artist's interpretation of what a truck powered by batteries might look like. 

Next they'll release a sketch of their Tesla Model 3 killer that they might build someday.  Right after they release an updated drawing of their 2013 Tesla S killer that they might build sometime in the next decade...

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2510 on: October 26, 2017, 03:50:06 AM »
Bob


I think we need lots of makes, producing lots of models.


Where I live you run with your lights on always, with your heater on most of the time, and drive long distances on heavily salted roads. A vehicle designed for Southern Nevada needing a huge A/C, a light color to bounce those rays away, and perhaps the road clearance to allow for unpaved roads, might not fit the bill for many Canadians.


Musk ran with this ball, and baring some huge mistakes he'll be one of the big players. I don't believe he's working towards a monopoly.


Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2511 on: October 26, 2017, 05:03:23 AM »
Terry, are you aware of the difference between companies like Daimler who make pictures of EVs they might make someday and the companies that are actually making EVs?

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2512 on: October 26, 2017, 05:44:15 AM »
Terry, are you aware of the difference between companies like Daimler who make pictures of EVs they might make someday and the companies that are actually making EVs?


I am.




oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2513 on: October 26, 2017, 11:35:20 AM »
The tide is turning towards more and more EVs, reading all these recent announcements by the major manufacturers, but should Tesla somehow fail and go belly up in the near term, before model 3 becomes ubiquitous, then I have a strong worry that the big guys will forget all their announcements and go back to their oligopoly. There is no real competition or strong leadership out there at the moment, besides Tesla. So I hope Elon is focusing on this goal with all hands.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2514 on: October 26, 2017, 02:58:46 PM »
The tide is turning towards more and more EVs, reading all these recent announcements by the major manufacturers, but should Tesla somehow fail and go belly up in the near term, before model 3 becomes ubiquitous, then I have a strong worry that the big guys will forget all their announcements and go back to their oligopoly. There is no real competition or strong leadership out there at the moment, besides Tesla. So I hope Elon is focusing on this goal with all hands.

The scheduled Tesla semi-truck reveal was a huge deal -- but Elon delayed it a few weeks it to focus on the Model 3 production ramp-up and the Puerto Rico power crisis.  I think he has his priorities straight.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/916395155120205825
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2515 on: October 26, 2017, 03:05:12 PM »
SAAB successor NEVS signs deal to help bring 1 million electric cars to DiDi’s ride-sharing network
Quote
...
Since NEVS launched, its Chinese owners have announced several deals for the company to make massive fleets of electric cars for Chinese companies. NEVS signed a framework deal worth about 8.5 billion crowns ($1 billion) with China Volant Industry Co. (Volinco) for 20,000 electric cars last year and Panda New Energy, a new energy vehicle leasing company in China, ordered 150 000 9-3 Sedan electric vehicles in 2015.

Earlier this year, it received approval to establish production capacity of up to 200,000 electric vehicles per year in China. NEVS said that they expect their car factory in Tianjin to start producing cars by the end of this year.

It looks like their many large customers, now apparently including DiDi, will be fighting for that production capacity.
https://electrek.co/2017/10/26/nevs-electric-cars-didi-ride-sharing-network/


Let's hope they've obtained a source for all the batteries they'll need!
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2516 on: October 26, 2017, 04:38:46 PM »
The tide is turning towards more and more EVs, reading all these recent announcements by the major manufacturers, but should Tesla somehow fail and go belly up in the near term, before model 3 becomes ubiquitous, then I have a strong worry that the big guys will forget all their announcements and go back to their oligopoly. There is no real competition or strong leadership out there at the moment, besides Tesla. So I hope Elon is focusing on this goal with all hands.

Tesla is the leader in the production of EV's and is clearly showing the way. They are also being rewarded by Wall Street as investors are causing a spectacular 6 year run. The secret is that Tesla's strengths and profits are driven by battery technology breakthroughs and not their vehicles.

http://bgr.com/2017/08/04/elon-musk-tesla-battery-research-breakthrough/

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/608251/tesla-will-build-the-worlds-biggest-lithium-ion-battery/


Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2517 on: October 26, 2017, 06:35:42 PM »
China will be glad to build the world's cars.  And China will build EVs.

A long range EV will almost be cheaper to purchase than a same-feature ICEV.  They are already cheaper to operate.  China will flood markets with good quality EVs and other manufacturers will have no option except to go head to head with China.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2518 on: October 27, 2017, 12:43:25 AM »
 ;D  :o

Toyota admits ‘Elon Musk is right’ about fuel cell, but moves forward with hydrogen anyway
Quote
For years, Toyota has been betting on hydrogen fuel cell over battery-electric vehicles for its zero-emission vehicle strategy. It put the Japanese automaker behind in the electric transition in the industry.

Now Toyota admits that Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who called hydrogen fuel cell  “incredibly dumb”, “is right,” but the company is still heavily investing in the technology. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/10/26/toyota-elon-musk-fuel-cell-hydrogen/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2519 on: October 27, 2017, 02:53:35 AM »
Waymo is going to test its self-driving cars on Michigan’s snowy roads
https://electrek.co/2017/10/26/waymo-self-driving-test-snow-michigan/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2520 on: October 27, 2017, 08:56:53 AM »
Quote
Now Toyota admits that Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who called hydrogen fuel cell  “incredibly dumb”, “is right,”

Something to watch out for. 

There's bit of information about the potential charging time for the Tesla 3.  If it's true it looks like the 3 might be capable of 80% charging in about 15 minutes.  That would take, of course, an upgrade to the Superchargers but that's been in the works.

If it does turn out to be possible to charge that quickly then there are no more arguments that can be made to support H2 FCEVs. 

BenB

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2521 on: October 27, 2017, 09:38:58 AM »
The new Leaf is selling better than expected, according to Nissan:

http://europe.autonews.com/article/20171026/ANE/171029833/nissan-leaf-is-off-to-a-hot-start-in-europe-globally

The order numbers are still not huge, and it's not clear how many are actually being delivered - I was under the impression that deliveries started in Japan in October, and would be followed by Norway and then the rest of Europe from the turn of the year. With 3 factories in 3 continents, Nissan should soon be able to deliver large numbers if the demand is there.

etienne

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2522 on: October 27, 2017, 11:53:40 PM »
Quote
Now Toyota admits that Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who called hydrogen fuel cell  “incredibly dumb”, “is right,”

Something to watch out for. 

There's bit of information about the potential charging time for the Tesla 3.  If it's true it looks like the 3 might be capable of 80% charging in about 15 minutes.  That would take, of course, an upgrade to the Superchargers but that's been in the works.

If it does turn out to be possible to charge that quickly then there are no more arguments that can be made to support H2 FCEVs.

Well, if I would need a range extender for an EV, I think a fuel cell would be a good option. It's too early to know who will be the winner.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2523 on: October 28, 2017, 01:45:42 AM »
Around 200 mile (322 km) range, starting at $39,000.  Next year!

Hyundai and Kia are both coming out with new all-electric SUVs next year, but in low volumes
https://electrek.co/2017/10/27/hyundai-kia-kona-niro-all-electric-suvs/
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2524 on: October 28, 2017, 10:43:23 PM »
Quote
Now Toyota admits that Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who called hydrogen fuel cell  “incredibly dumb”, “is right,”

Something to watch out for. 

There's bit of information about the potential charging time for the Tesla 3.  If it's true it looks like the 3 might be capable of 80% charging in about 15 minutes.  That would take, of course, an upgrade to the Superchargers but that's been in the works.

If it does turn out to be possible to charge that quickly then there are no more arguments that can be made to support H2 FCEVs.

Well, if I would need a range extender for an EV, I think a fuel cell would be a good option. It's too early to know who will be the winner.

I don't believe that the current ranges for EV's are a major impediment for significant market penetration, certainly not in the U.S. Americans, on average, make 2 car trips a day and 50% of these trips are 10 miles or less. I use my car to commute to and from work, 22 miles each way. Occasionally, I will drive to visit family in the area, 40 miles one way max. Perhaps 12 times per year, I will drive long distances.

http://newsroom.aaa.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/REPORT_American_Driving_Survey_Methodology_and_year_1_results_May_2013_to_May_2014.pdf

I think a bigger impediment is the infrastructure needed to charge tens of millions of cars. There are currently over 250 million passenger vehicles on the road in the U.S.

etienne

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2525 on: October 29, 2017, 05:48:13 PM »
Well,  I drive much more and range is an issue on one of the two cars. The small car never left the country (Luxembourg - 81 km from north to south), but with the other one, we do at least once a month much longer distances. So if I could drive with batteries on regular basis, and have a fuel cell for longer distances, I would see it as much better than an hybrid vehicle. I have no idea how much space the fuel cell needs. Maybe a low power fuel cell that would reload the batteries would be a good deal.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2526 on: October 31, 2017, 12:28:35 AM »
"As it turns out, automakers learned that while range-extended EVs captured some consumers, many just wanted an all-electric car that could go a long way between charges."

The Chevy Bolt is claiming an unlikely victim
http://www.businessinsider.com/chevy-bolt-hurting-chevy-volt-sales-2017-10
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2527 on: October 31, 2017, 12:57:54 AM »
EV charging wars:  Tesla is the only automaker to aggressively install EV charging equipment in many locations -- it's a prime perk for the brand.  While other EVs can't handle a Tesla Supercharger, the lower-power Tesla "Destination Chargers" -- with the right adapter plug -- can be used by other EVs.  So, should doing that be considered "theft" of electricity?... or, a benefit of Tesla's "accelerating the adoption of sustainable transport"?

EV Charging Adapter Wars: Which Side Are You On?
https://insideevs.com/ev-charging-adapter-wars-which-side-are-you-on/


Edit:
Because everyone can use a laugh these days...:
https://insideevs.com/55-referrals-tesla-model-s-owner-wins-free-next-gen-roadster/
« Last Edit: October 31, 2017, 01:12:06 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2528 on: October 31, 2017, 01:02:28 AM »
Then again, EV charger availability may not be a problem for long...  :)

Electric car charge points reach over 50,000 units in the US – could grow 46.8%/yr over next decade
https://electrek.co/2017/10/30/electric-car-charge-points-us/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2529 on: October 31, 2017, 03:06:39 PM »
It appears the Tesla Model 3 production "bottlenecks" are due to Panasonic's battery assembly at the gigafactory.  (Expect details during the Tesla earnings call tomorrow.)

Panasonic says Gigafactory battery output to increase for Tesla's Model 3
Quote
Tesla earlier this month blamed manufacturing bottlenecks for limiting quarterly production of its mass-market Model 3 sedan to 260 vehicles rather than its 1,500 goal.

Panasonic Chief Executive Kazuhiro Tsuga said at an earnings briefing that delays to the automation of the battery pack production line meant some stages had to be completed manually.

“This process (for battery packs) will be soon automated, and then the number of vehicles to be produced will rise sharply,” Tsuga said. He declined to comment to what extent Model 3 production would be behind its targeted schedule.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-panasonic-results/panasonic-says-gigafactory-battery-output-to-increase-for-teslas-model-3-idUSKBN1D00S7
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Adam Ash

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2530 on: November 01, 2017, 09:58:58 AM »
"As it turns out, automakers learned that while range-extended EVs captured some consumers, many just wanted an all-electric car that could go a long way between charges."

The Chevy Bolt is claiming an unlikely victim
http://www.businessinsider.com/chevy-bolt-hurting-chevy-volt-sales-2017-10

I recently drove a Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV for a few days in a big-city environment.  50 km range on battery before the petrol engine started.  With a bit of planning it was great to fit my trips in between free charging stations to minimise petrol use.  Drive 460 km, and used very little petrol.  Certainly good to drive so far for free and I would happily convert to a full EV with range in the 100s km. 

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2531 on: November 02, 2017, 02:40:52 AM »
Tesla Q4 2017 financial results letter and conference call came out today.
Both are available here: http://ir.tesla.com/events.cfm

Electrek has several articles, which they link to here:  https://electrek.co/2017/11/01/tesla-tsla-q3-2017-earnings/

Biggest news: Tesla has delivered over 250,000 cars since its inception.

Also, the major production “bottleneck” was revealed to be in the battery gigafactory, in the assembly of battery modules. The subcontractor that programmed the robots “really dropped the ball,” and Tesla/Grohmann needed to rewrite about 20-30 man-years of software — in four weeks.  Rather than blaming the subcontractor, Elon Musk said Tesla blames themselves for hiring them.  The assembly line is so automated, it is difficult to use manual labor while awaiting the fix.  But the impending solution will allow much higher volumes than originally thought.

The big Australia battery storage project is about 80% complete and ahead of the 100-day deadline.

“We are also continuing to expand the presence of solar and storage product placement in our stores and service centers.  As a result of these efforts, we are seeing a growing number of Tesla vehicle customers also purchasing our energy generation and storage systems, which validates our strategy to cross-sell these products.”
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rboyd

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« Reply #2532 on: November 02, 2017, 06:49:40 PM »
Bloomberg: Tesla's nightmare before Christmas

Tesla "has burned through roughly four out of every five of the $3.2 billion dollars it has raised since late March through selling new equity and convertible debt and its debut in the high-yield bond market."

"As Tesla's spending has accelerated this year, its balance sheet has taken all of the strain. Consequently, debt has soared. Even just using debt with recourse to the company, on a net basis it has almost tripled since the start of the year to $3.36 billion.This would matter less if the primary objective of sucking in most of that external funding -- mass production of the Model 3 -- was fast approaching. Instead, it has receded further."

The company is rapidly running out of room between its cash burn rate and its reducing ability to raise cash, especially with its current cash pretty much equaling its current liabilities, with the latter increasing recently. The price of its bonds are falling (greater perceived risk of default), and unless its share price recovers quickly it may be much more difficult in the future for the company to raise cash. With no positive cash flow in sight, the company is completely dependent upon its ability to sell more equity and/or raise more debt. Both avenues are starting to close.

"But the long term is really just an accumulation of short terms. And with Tesla now burning a billion dollars-plus per quarter, keeping the door open to capital markets and lenders is critical. Confidence about scaling up production of the Model 3 is the key to that door -- and it is slipping badly."

A virtuous circle can turn into a negative spiral very quickly in the capital markets for firms dependent on repeated injections of new money. Any further slip ups, and loss in confidence, and things could get nasty very quickly.

https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-11-01/tesla-earnings-the-nightmare-before-christmas




Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2533 on: November 02, 2017, 08:56:56 PM »
Rboyd quoted:
Quote
With no positive cash flow in sight, the company is completely dependent upon its ability to sell more equity and/or raise more debt. Both avenues are starting to close.

I will counter with a quote from Tesla Q3 Update letter:

Quote
Between cash on hand, future cash flows and available lines of credit, we believe that we are well capitalized to accommodate the revised ramp of Model 3 production to 5,000 per week.  Upon achieving this production level, we expect to generate significant cash flows from operating activities.

Is this a difficult time for Tesla?  You bet.  But the last bond offering was over-subscribed — people believe in the company and want it to succeed.  It's a cliff-hanger.  But with Musk at the helm, the odds favor a successful outcome.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2534 on: November 02, 2017, 08:59:56 PM »
It may not look it, but thing at Tesla are actually looking up.

Elon Musk: Up all night, at times depressed, taking the blame for Tesla production delays
Quote
Indeed, on Wednesday's call, Musk said he has been at the Gigafactory all hours of the night.

"I am personally on that line, in that machine, trying to solve problems personally where I can," Musk said. "We are working seven days a week to do it. And I have personally been here on zone 2 module line at 2:00 a.m. on a Sunday morning, helping diagnose robot calibration issues. So I'm doing everything I can."

In July, Musk predicted that getting the production of Tesla Model 3 ramped up would be "manufacturing hell." On Wednesday, he likened the experience to "Dante's Inferno," admitting that it was emotionally taxing.

"Let's say level nine is the worst, OK? Well, we were in level nine," he said. "I was really depressed about three or four weeks ago when I realized that we're kind of in level nine," he said. "I was sort of quite down in the dumps."

But things are looking up. "We're now in level eight and I think we're close to exiting level eight," said Musk. "Now I can see sort of a clear path to sunshine. So I feel really pretty optimistic right now." ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/02/elon-musk-takes-blame-for-tesla-production-delays.html
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numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2535 on: November 02, 2017, 10:00:04 PM »
Rboyd quoted:
Quote
With no positive cash flow in sight, the company is completely dependent upon its ability to sell more equity and/or raise more debt. Both avenues are starting to close.

I will counter with a quote from Tesla Q3 Update letter:

They would say that...

(and if I had some loose change I'd be buying up their stock.)

rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2536 on: November 03, 2017, 12:16:00 AM »
Sentiment can change very rapidly and Tesla is pushing its luck. If they execute very well from now on they should just about be ok, if they don't things can turn against them very quickly. CEOs will always put the best spin on things, including Musk. At the proposed burn rates they will need more financing next year.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2537 on: November 03, 2017, 12:29:52 AM »
I think that at present burn rate Tesla has enough cash on hand to stay above water for over a year.

Ramping up to less than 10k Model 3s per month should put Tesla into profitability.  Assuming Musk is correct and it's only a matter of finishing new software for the robots on the battery line that weren't properly programmed then ramp up should be rapid.

During the rewrite time Tesla can be checking and rechecking all other parts of their manufacturing process and triple checking supply lines.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2538 on: November 03, 2017, 03:01:32 AM »
U.S.:  Proposed Tax Bill ends $7,500 federal tax credit for EVs by the end of the year.

Electric vehicle $7,500 tax credit expected to go away with new House tax bill [Updated]
https://electrek.co/2017/11/02/electric-vehicle-tax-credit-expected-slashed-new-house-tax-bill/

Quote
The full GOP House tax bill has been released and as expected earlier this morning, it does include the end of the federal tax credit for electric vehicles.

The official language indicates that the bill, in its current form, will end the $7500 subsidy entirely by the end of the year, which is sure to completely change the EV market in the US over the next few months. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/11/02/buying-tesla-electric-cars-federal-tax-credit-gop-tax-bill/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2539 on: November 03, 2017, 03:06:23 AM »
Sentiment can change very rapidly and Tesla is pushing its luck. If they execute very well from now on they should just about be ok, if they don't things can turn against them very quickly. CEOs will always put the best spin on things, including Musk. At the proposed burn rates they will need more financing next year.

Just a note:  my quote in Reply #2533 is from an official Tesla investor relations document, not a casual Musk tweet or comment.   But “pushing its luck“ is what Tesla has done from the very beginning.  :)
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2540 on: November 03, 2017, 08:13:42 AM »
People seem to go out of their way to create Tesla drama.

I assume Musk to be a man of his word.  He often sets time targets that Tesla can't quite meet but I've seen no incidences of him being dishonest.  So, let's assume he is being truthful.

We don't have to assume that the Tesla 3 is real.  There are a couple thousand on the road.  Musk says that the car factory is operational.  The Gigafactory is almost operational, there's a software problem for some of the production machinery and that is currently being rewritten.

Assume an average selling price of $40k for the Model 3 and a 20% gross profit margin.  At 100,000 units per year, only 25% of the potential output, Tesla will have another $800 million revenue to offset losses.

If Tesla needs more money, and assuming what I've written above is true, Tesla will have no problem borrowing an additional billion or so.  They have a few hundred Model 3s 'pre-sold'.  They have a developed product.  They can readily get cash to tide them over.

Worry about the companies that have yet to bring a marketable EV to the game. 


ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2541 on: November 03, 2017, 07:28:15 PM »
The largest grocery store chain in Canada just announced and showed their first electric heavy delivery truck. It is a BYD. Here's a tweet with a photo:

https://twitter.com/ec_minister/status/926503614343991296


Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2542 on: November 03, 2017, 07:30:34 PM »
Ending the U.S. federal tax credit early, if it happens, is an certainly an obstacle — but more so to the consumer than to Tesla.  The majority of Tesla cars sold today are Models S and X; luxury cars with an average $100,000 price.  A $7,500 incentive does not make or break those sales.  (Also, it does not affect global sales at all.)  It will be tougher on the Model 3 buyers, but they will have the choice of buying a lower trim model next year.  Though some potential buyers may cancel their reservation, there is plenty of demand:  as of Tesla’s Q2 financial report, even though there were some reservation cancellations every day, there was a net increase of 1,800 reservations a day. 

Loss of the U.S. federal incentive will slow EV sales by other companies, too.  In fact, since Tesla would have reached its 200,000-EV tax limit well before other companies, losing the incentive would actually remove the advantage other companies would have had over Tesla in the coming years.

Fred Lambert (Electrek) writes:
Quote
Ultimately, technological advancements are going to make gas-powered cars uncompetitive with electric vehicles regardless of incentives. It’s inevitable and likely to happen within the next 5 to 10 years in my opinion.

But in the meantime, EV incentives are preparing and accelerating this market transition. If they are removed, it will simply slow down the process in the US while the rest of the world moves forward.
https://electrek.co/2017/11/03/tesla-stock-tsla-model-3-delay-ev-tax-credit-fear/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2543 on: November 03, 2017, 07:51:05 PM »
The largest grocery store chain in Canada just announced and showed their first electric heavy delivery truck. It is a BYD. Here's a tweet with a photo:

https://twitter.com/ec_minister/status/926503614343991296

Cool! 8)  And they weren't scared off by the truck's range (per the video) of "only about 150 km" (93 miles)!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2544 on: November 04, 2017, 02:03:32 AM »
Tesla factory in China — in 2020!

“I mean, it’s something in the hundreds of thousands of vehicles per year. I’m not sure where it is exactly, but it’s at least a couple of hundred thousand vehicles a year, maybe more.”

Tesla is planning to start production at upcoming Chinese factory in ‘~3 years’, says Elon Musk
https://electrek.co/2017/11/02/tesla-factory-china-elon-musk/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2545 on: November 06, 2017, 04:15:09 PM »
Big electric company in Europe says it will install 10,000 EV fast-charge points.

Another ‘ultra-fast’ electric car charging network announced in Europe – but with 10,000 charge points
Quote
Just a week after the unveiling of Ionity, the new ‘ultra-fast’ joint electric car charging network by BMW, Mercedes, Ford and Volkswagen, electric utility E.ON is one-upping them with the announcement of its own ‘ultra-fast’ charging network across Europe.

The difference is that the company is a lot more ambitious in term of the number of charge points.

Ionity aims to have 400 stations across Europe by the end of the decade while E.ON is aiming for 10,000 charge points. Neither confirmed how may charge point per station, but with an average of fewer than 6 charge point per station, it’s extremely likely that E.ON’s network is going to be wider.

Like Ionity, the company is talking about “ultra-fast charging” with charge rates between 150 kW and 350 kW. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/11/06/ultra-fast-electric-car-charging-network/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2546 on: November 06, 2017, 04:55:19 PM »
Oh, GM. ::)

Chevy Bolt EV (Ampera E) gets a $5,500 price increase in Europe because of GM, says Opel
Quote
The situation with the Chevy Bolt EV in Europe, where it is sold as the Opel Ampera E, is becoming increasingly complicated ever since GM sold its European operations to the PSA Group. They have limited supply while demand is through the roof.

It now looks like they are capitalizing on that since they have announced a price hike for the all-electric vehicle.

Last month, we reported that Opel asked its Norwegian dealers, where demand is the strongest, to stop taking orders for the Ampera E as supply can’t match demand.

They claimed that almost 5,000 people have placed orders at that time.

Dealers are now putting interested buyers on a list, but they are not signing contracts – though it now looks like those contracts don’t mean much because reports are coming out that the new price hike even applies to those with contracts. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/11/06/chevy-bolt-ev-ampera-e-price-increase-europe/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2547 on: November 07, 2017, 06:29:11 PM »
Limited to a 100 square mile (259 sq km) area near Phoenix, Arizona.

Waymo is first to put fully self-driving cars on US roads without a safety driver
Quote
Waymo, the autonomous vehicle division of Alphabet, Google’s parent company, reached an important milestone recently: since mid-October, the company has been operating its autonomous minivans on public roads in Arizona without a safety driver — or any human at all — behind the wheel. And starting very soon, the company plans to invite regular people for rides in these fully self-driving vehicles. ...
https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/7/16615290/waymo-self-driving-safety-driver-chandler-autonomous

Waymo’s self-driving cars are now fully autonomous, public ride service launching soon
https://electrek.co/2017/11/07/waymo-self-driving-car-no-humans-public-ride-service/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2548 on: November 09, 2017, 01:10:30 PM »
Expect to hear news reports of the first self-driving bus in Las Vegas crashing.  Here are some facts for the push back....

Quote
The autonomous shuttle was testing today when it was grazed by a delivery truck downtown.

The shuttle did what it was supposed to do, in that it’s sensors registered the truck and the shuttle stopped to avoid the accident.

Unfortunately the delivery truck did not stop and grazed the front fender of the shuttle. Had the truck had the same sensing equipment that the shuttle has the accident would have been avoided. Testing of the shuttle will continue during the 12-month pilot in the downtown Innovation District. The shuttle will remain out of service for the rest of the day. The driver of the truck was cited by Metro.

http://cityoflasvegas.tumblr.com/post/167279971383/update-minor-incident-downtown-wednesday

Expect to read articles in which the facts are not reported.  Certainly not in the headlines which are running along the lines of "Self Driving Bus Crashes in First Two Hours of Operation".



Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2549 on: November 09, 2017, 02:42:42 PM »
Expect to hear news reports of the first self-driving bus in Las Vegas crashing.  Here are some facts for the push back....

Quote
The autonomous shuttle was testing today when it was grazed by a delivery truck downtown.

The shuttle did what it was supposed to do, in that it’s sensors registered the truck and the shuttle stopped to avoid the accident.

Unfortunately the delivery truck did not stop and grazed the front fender of the shuttle. Had the truck had the same sensing equipment that the shuttle has the accident would have been avoided. Testing of the shuttle will continue during the 12-month pilot in the downtown Innovation District. The shuttle will remain out of service for the rest of the day. The driver of the truck was cited by Metro.

http://cityoflasvegas.tumblr.com/post/167279971383/update-minor-incident-downtown-wednesday

Expect to read articles in which the facts are not reported.  Certainly not in the headlines which are running along the lines of "Self Driving Bus Crashes in First Two Hours of Operation".

Heck, I'd be distracted by the sight of that, too!  ;D
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