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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2700 on: December 04, 2017, 04:20:11 AM »
These features are ~standard here in Canada. Heated mirrors are also a popular option.


I assume the batteries give off some heat when charging or discharging & I know a running electrical motor will burn your hand if it's doing much work.


Is Musk utilizing this heat in any way? Is an automotive A/C unit standard on these super cars?


Terry

 Offhand, I know the heat from the motor is used to help condition the battery to optimal temperature. (Glycol thermal system.)   Anecdotally, I have seen mention of toes warmed by the batteries under the floor. :) 
   The air conditioning uses an electrically driven heat pump system.
So this provides both heat and cooling to the cab? Sounds feasible, particularly if battery and motor heat is utilized during cold periods.
Terry
Edit - Bob's solution is as I see it. A heat pump can simultaneously warm the cab while extracting heat from the battery and motor, or cool the cab as well as the battery and motor by extracting heat from both while exhausting the heat to the atmosphere.
Sorry about the cross post.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2017, 04:38:19 AM by TerryM »

numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2701 on: December 04, 2017, 01:08:09 PM »
Anecdotally, I have seen mention of toes warmed by the batteries under the floor. :)

A foot-warmer built into the car? I'm sold!

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2702 on: December 04, 2017, 10:32:11 PM »
Anecdotally, I have seen mention of toes warmed by the batteries under the floor. :)

A foot-warmer built into the car? I'm sold!

And it’s standard equipment! ;D
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2703 on: December 04, 2017, 10:35:14 PM »
VW unveils new electric van to go into production next year for its ride-sharing service
Quote
The interior has been designed especially for ride-sharing. It looks spacious with standalone seats comfortable for up to six passengers.
...
Every seat is equipped with dimmable reading lights, USB ports, and each car also offers “fast WiFi for passengers.”
...
They are starting with a fleet of 200 vehicles in Hamburg next year.  MOIA says that the vehicle has a range of “more than 300 kilometers” (186 miles) and it “can be charged up to 80 percent in about 30 minutes.” ...
https://electrek.co/2017/12/04/vw-moia-electric-van-ride-sharing-service/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2704 on: December 04, 2017, 10:38:17 PM »
“Britain’s largest motor insurer Direct Line confirmed to Reuters that they are offering the discount to encourage the use of Autopilot.  The discounts come after Tesla’s crash rate was reportedly reduced by 40% after the introduction of Autopilot based on data reviewed by NHTSA.”

Tesla Autopilot: Insurer offers a 5 percent discount for drivers using Tesla’s driver assist system
https://electrek.co/2017/12/04/tesla-autopilot-insurer-discount-driver-assist-system/
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2705 on: December 04, 2017, 11:16:59 PM »
Quote
Tesla’s crash rate was reportedly reduced by 40% after the introduction of Autopilot based on data reviewed by NHTSA.

A 40% drop in crashes could mean 12,000 fewer driving deaths per year in the US.

Full self-driving should take the number of crashes caused by cars with autonomous driving down 90% or better.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2706 on: December 05, 2017, 12:35:53 AM »
America Crowns a New Pollution King
Power plants have been the biggest source of U.S. CO2 emissions since the 1970s—until now.
Quote
For the first time in 40 years, power plants are no longer the biggest source of U.S. greenhouse gas pollution. That dubious distinction now belongs to the transport sector: cars, trucks, planes, trains and boats. 

The big reversal didn’t happen because transportation emissions have been increasing. In fact, since 2000 the U.S. has experienced the flattest stretch of transportation-related pollution in modern record keeping, according to data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The big change has come from the cleanup of America’s electric grid.

The chart below shows carbon dioxide emissions from transportation exceeding those from electricity production in 2016 for the first time since 1978. The pollution gap has continued to widen further in 2017, according to a Bloomberg analysis. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-04/america-crowns-a-new-pollution-king
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numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2707 on: December 05, 2017, 12:48:49 AM »
Quote
Tesla’s crash rate was reportedly reduced by 40% after the introduction of Autopilot based on data reviewed by NHTSA.

A 40% drop in crashes could mean 12,000 fewer driving deaths per year in the US.

Full self-driving should take the number of crashes caused by cars with autonomous driving down 90% or better.

Depends which crashes are avoided. A 40% drop in crashes could mean a 60% drop in fender-benders with no change in deaths. Or it could mean a 90% drop in fatal crashes with little change in fender-benders. (Assume my numbers add up.) Do you know which it is?

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2708 on: December 05, 2017, 01:41:06 AM »
Don't know the breakdown between minor/serious/fatal crashes.  I was just generalizing.  But I've been seriously hurt (almost killed) twice by drunk drivers and hit from behind (while walking a few feet off the pavement) by a distracted driver ("only" a concussion and flesh wounds that time). 

I'd be really happy with a 90% drop in serious crashes.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2709 on: December 05, 2017, 01:44:00 AM »
Quote
America Crowns a New Pollution King

I view that as good news.  The old king is dying and the new king is 'lesser'.  It's not like there's been a big runup in vehicle CO2.

And the new king is about to get whacked.  EVs are about to start storming the castle.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2710 on: December 05, 2017, 01:59:01 AM »
Quote
Tesla’s crash rate was reportedly reduced by 40% after the introduction of Autopilot based on data reviewed by NHTSA.

A 40% drop in crashes could mean 12,000 fewer driving deaths per year in the US.

Full self-driving should take the number of crashes caused by cars with autonomous driving down 90% or better.

Depends which crashes are avoided. A 40% drop in crashes could mean a 60% drop in fender-benders with no change in deaths. Or it could mean a 90% drop in fatal crashes with little change in fender-benders. (Assume my numbers add up.) Do you know which it is?

Tesla (and NHTSA, in this study) used airbag deployment to define a “crash.” 
« Last Edit: December 05, 2017, 02:39:35 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2711 on: December 05, 2017, 02:18:33 AM »
Quote
America Crowns a New Pollution King

I view that as good news.  The old king is dying and the new king is 'lesser'.  It's not like there's been a big runup in vehicle CO2.

And the new king is about to get whacked.  EVs are about to start storming the castle.

Yes, I think it is mostly an issue of timing — and availability.  And public acceptance.... 

A relatively few, big power projects are needed to make a difference, compared to the thousands (millions?) of transport vehicles to make the same impact — vehicles which need to be manufactured, and find a market demand.   The vehicle industry and the public has finally awoken to EVs, so although utilities may make the biggest effect for a while, clean transport will only increase over the next years.
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2712 on: December 05, 2017, 02:19:56 PM »
BMW and Porsche join forces to enable 15-min electric car charging at 450 kW charge rate
Quote
BMW and Porsche are already working together and with other major automakers, like Mercedes and Ford, on the major Ionity ultra-fast (350 kW) electric car charging network in Europe.

But now they want to lay a path to improve that charge rate to 450 kW in order to enable quicker electric car charging.
...
They have now confirmed that the bulk of their research will focus on improving charging rates using the existing Combined Charging System (CCS), but at a voltage of 900 volts and an amplitude of 500 amperes for a charge rate of 450 kW.

The group sees this charge rate as ideal to charge an average long-range electric car in about 15 mins. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/12/05/bmw-porsche-electric-car-charging-450-kw-charge-rate/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2713 on: December 06, 2017, 03:51:46 AM »
“Planning an extinction isn’t easy.”

California will ban sales of gasoline vehicles by 2040 if upcoming bill passes
Quote
California Assemblymember Phil Ting, a Democrat who is chairman of the chamber’s budget committee, said he plans to introduce a bill that, starting in 2040, would allow the state’s motor vehicles department to register only “clean” vehicles that emit no carbon dioxide, such as battery-electric or hydrogen fuel-cell cars.

“Until you set a deadline, nothing gets done,” Ting, who represents much of San Francisco, said in a phone interview Tuesday. “It’s responsible for us to set a deadline 23 years in advance.” ...
https://electrek.co/2017/12/05/california-ban-gas-2040/

Adoption of new technology these days happens much faster than even the “experts” expect.  If nothing else, this will get people thinking.
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2714 on: December 06, 2017, 05:42:17 AM »
I'm not sure that's a good move.  Likely to piss a lot of people off.

Put the energy into assisting EVs.  Lower purchase price and lower operating costs will kill the ICEV. 

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2715 on: December 06, 2017, 09:26:04 PM »
Ford announces major expansion of electric car plans in China with 15 new models
Quote
While 15 new EVs is a significant commitment, it’s still fewer new models than the 35 gas-powered cars that they plan to introduce in the market by 2025.
...
Nonetheless, those EV plans in China are significant and represent the latest example of China’s strong zero-emission vehicle mandate working great so far.

Automakers need zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) to represent 10% of new car sales as soon as in 2019 and 12% by 2020. They recently removed the requirement for 2018, but the plan is still more aggressive than any major country. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/12/05/ford-expansion-electric-car-china-ev/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2716 on: December 07, 2017, 04:45:12 PM »
Tesla Semi will deliver beer – Budweiser orders 40 electric trucks
Quote
The list of companies placing orders for Tesla Semi electric trucks keeps growing weeks after the unveiling event last month.

Now Anheuser-Busch, the brewer behind Budweiser, announced that it ordered 40 Tesla Semi trucks.
The brewer says that it will include the electric trucks in its distribution network as part of its commitment to reduce its operational carbon footprint by 30 percent by 2025.

Considering the size of their distribution network, they say that it would be the equivalent of removing nearly 500,000 cars from the road globally each year. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/12/07/tesla-semi-deliver-beer-budweiser-orders-40-electric-trucks/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2717 on: December 07, 2017, 08:23:46 PM »
London’s new electric [with range-extender] black cabs hit the road – a classic reborn
Quote
The vehicle has an all-electric range of 80 miles (~129 km) on a single charge and is equipped with a 1.5 litre petrol range extender.

The first few units are now on the road and the company plans to significantly increase production volume over the next few years to have over 9,000 electric taxis by 2021.

In order to support this fleet, LEVC is planning a large charging infrastructure network – starting at Circus West Village

“The entire site has been designed to futureproof for a mass adoption of electric vehicles with the infrastructure for almost 1,000 electric charging points planned and the flexibility to increase that. The first 57 charging points are now available for use at Circus West Village. The Grade II* listed Power Station building and its surrounding areas is being transformed into a community of homes, shops, offices, restaurants and public space – a vibrant, new town centre for Londoners.”

They plan to add 75 DC fast-charging stations to help support the effort. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/12/07/london-new-electric-black-cabs-classic-reborn/
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Alexander555

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2718 on: December 07, 2017, 08:40:05 PM »
They should stop selling fossil fuel cars much faster. Because, whats the point in having a couple thousand electric taxis. If your entire carpark goes up by 300 000 cars every year. That's the average for the last 15 years.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2719 on: December 07, 2017, 08:59:58 PM »
Looks like the Tesla production snags may have been worked out.

Tesla Model 3 customer deliveries are reportedly starting next week
Quote
We have received reports that some of the first Tesla Model 3 reservation holders who don’t have access to the employee priority delivery are being scheduled deliveries as soon as next week.

We are talking about deliveries to people who are not Tesla employees, family members of an employee, or company insiders. Those people had access to the first Model 3 vehicles that Tesla delivered since the launch of the production version in July. But now Tesla is finally moving to what we have been referring to as “regular customer deliveries.”

Of course, they are technically behind schedule on that since Tesla first aimed for regular customer deliveries in October before announcing some production issues last month and delayed the Model 3 production ramp. But the company finally started opening up Model 3 orders to regular reservation holders on November 21.

At that point, Tesla was talking about 4 weeks for the first deliveries, but after going through the process and being assigned new VINs, customers are being confirmed deliveries as soon as next week. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/12/07/tesla-model-3-customer-deliveries-starting-next-week/
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2720 on: December 07, 2017, 10:55:36 PM »
Perhaps the battery module automation problem has been solved. 

But we need to be a little bit cautious.  Perhaps Tesla is assembling enough by hand to allow some cars to be sold.  Remember, none of the Roadster, MS or MX modules were built by machine.

Let's hope they've got the problem ironed out.  I'd love to see these cars flying out of the factories and giving the boo-birds bad digestion.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2721 on: December 08, 2017, 10:08:32 PM »
Further to the discussion in this thread around November 16 about the number of electric buses in China:

Kees van der Leun: While London is proud of its 120 electric buses, China brings 120,000 on the road every year now. Quite an electrification!
https://mobile.twitter.com/sustainable2050/status/938695944236912640
Original image at the link.
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numerobis

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« Reply #2722 on: December 09, 2017, 02:07:14 AM »
I just put some spare cash into one battery company (Tesla), but I'm not sure if that was ideal or if I should have gone for the more boring company (BYD).

TerryM

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« Reply #2723 on: December 09, 2017, 03:29:10 AM »
While all forms of electrical transportation make good sense, some make more sense than others.


The fixed routes followed by garbage trucks, local buses, and school buses may make them ideal for batteries. Mileage between charging is knowable, quiet operation is important, and the fleets are often owned by governmental entities that qualify for low interest funding.


These vehicles return to base daily and in house charging can be integrated into their daily schedule.


The long haul freight trucks will come, but why not start with the much easier, and equally important, local fixed route vehicles?
Terry

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2724 on: December 09, 2017, 04:08:20 AM »
Quote
The long haul freight trucks will come, but why not start with the much easier, and equally important, local fixed route vehicles?

It looks like that is where Tesla is starting.  They aren't even building a sleeper cab at first.  A truck that can leave the plant or warehouse and do a full day of delivery will be a proof of concept. 

If a company finds that they are getting good service from a 300 or 500 mile Tesla semi then they will start thinking about battery trucks for their longer runs and looking to see where Tesla has installed rapid chargers.


Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2725 on: December 09, 2017, 06:33:56 PM »
While all forms of electrical transportation make good sense, some make more sense than others.


The fixed routes followed by garbage trucks, local buses, and school buses may make them ideal for batteries. Mileage between charging is knowable, quiet operation is important, and the fleets are often owned by governmental entities that qualify for low interest funding.

These vehicles return to base daily and in house charging can be integrated into their daily schedule.

The long haul freight trucks will come, but why not start with the much easier, and equally important, local fixed route vehicles?
Terry

Capitalism!  Sadly, vehicle manufacturers won’t succeed simply by making trucks for the most logical customers — you must also consider the size of the market, and expected demand. 

Garbage trucks require special doohickeys (technical term) to deal with garbage, making them useless for most other hauling tasks.  And although school buses seem like the perfect fit, they are purchased mostly (in the U.S.) by public school municipalities who do not have the money to spare to buy the latest big tech.  Even if it would save them money in the long run, in the short run they have to get approval from boards struggling to pay teachers and buy computers and food for lunches. 

But delivery trucks are ubiquitous.  Make the best new delivery truck, price it right, and you’ll have more demand than you can handle!
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2726 on: December 09, 2017, 06:46:24 PM »
Don't be so sure when it comes to school buses.  Expect a lot of pressure from parents to replace diesel buses and their fumes.  Expect a lot of pressure from students, parents, and staff to cut CO2 emissions.

And expect creative financing to make the purchase of electric buses possible. 

Plus, we're only short years from when it will be less expensive to build a battery powered vehicle than one powered by an internal combustion engine.  It's all about battery prices which are rapidly falling.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2727 on: December 09, 2017, 06:48:47 PM »
I agree that when they are ready to buy new school buses, they will likely go electric.
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numerobis

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« Reply #2728 on: December 09, 2017, 08:38:21 PM »
The long haul freight trucks will come, but why not start with the much easier, and equally important, local fixed route vehicles?

"We" did, as pointed out several times in this thread. It wasn't Tesla, but others, who have started making battery-electric box trucks and garbage trucks and city buses. BYD for example.

TerryM

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« Reply #2729 on: December 10, 2017, 10:14:52 AM »
The long haul freight trucks will come, but why not start with the much easier, and equally important, local fixed route vehicles?

"We" did, as pointed out several times in this thread. It wasn't Tesla, but others, who have started making battery-electric box trucks and garbage trucks and city buses. BYD for example.
Exactly
The finest bus I've ever experienced was a Chinese tour bus that the Chinese people had donated to Cuba. The ride was great, flat panel screens for every seat, and very comfortable seating.
An electrical version of this bus would sell well anywhere in the world.
By the time the Chinese have met domestic demand, their expertise and experience will be make them formidable competitors everywhere.
We will make progress by buying and using these Chinese products, but the Chinese will gain a huge lead in their manufacturing.
Terry




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« Reply #2730 on: December 10, 2017, 04:48:29 PM »
Apple is growing the brains for self-driving cars.

Apple’s AI director on advances in machine learning for its self-driving car project
Training cars to recognize the world around them
https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/10/16758160/apple-machine-learning-autonomous-car-project-titan-ruslan-salakhutdinov
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2731 on: December 10, 2017, 06:56:00 PM »
Tesla is also working on a chip optimized for self-driving cars.

Quote
Future Tesla vehicles will run their self-driving AI software on a chip designed by the automaker itself.

“We are developing customized AI hardware chips,” Musk told a room of AI experts from companies such as Alphabet and Uber on the sidelines of the world’s leading AI conference. Musk claimed that the chips’ processing power would help Tesla’s Autopilot automated-driving function save more lives, more quickly, by hastening the day it can drive at least 10 times more safely than a human.

“We get there faster if we have dedicated AI hardware,” he said. He didn’t say how far along Tesla is in developing a chip, or when it will start shipping inside vehicles.

https://www.wired.com/story/musk-says-tesla-is-building-its-own-chip-for-autopilot/

It seems like self-driving cars are pretty much a guaranteed thing.  I assume Apple and Tesla are not the only companies far enough advanced that they are designed specialized computer chips optimized for self-driving.

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« Reply #2732 on: December 11, 2017, 12:23:29 PM »

No one, for the next several years, is going to use more batteries than Tesla.  It may be five years or more before anyone catches up with Tesla in terms of cells consumed considering that Tesla will soon be manufacturing 4x to 5x as many EVs per year as the next highest volume manufacturer. 

Bob, this is going back a little while now, but I've been away. I wonder what numbers you are anticipating for each of the major manufacturers to come up with Tesla being 4-5 times bigger than their biggest competitor.

I would guess that BAIC and BYD will both be selling around 200,000 EVs next year, but I think there's more upside than downside to that guesstimate. Numbers will probably continue to rise after next year. Zhidou, Geely, JAC and Chery are also significant players in China.

Nissan may get close to 200,000, judging by orders for the new Leaf. BMW, Renault, GM, Mitsubishi, etc. are also selling decent numbers of EVs, and if they manage to increase sales significantly next year they could be relevant to the overall market.

If Tesla manages to ramp up production of the M3 to plan, it may well be ahead of everyone else in EV sales, and even more so in battery demand, but I don't think it will be 4-5 times bigger than anyone else, and bearing in mind the growing number of competitors on the horizon, it won't have an overwhelming share of the overall EV market. Perhaps 15-25% next year if everything goes to plan?

numerobis

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« Reply #2733 on: December 11, 2017, 02:55:23 PM »
Personally I don't see Tesla selling more EVs than others. What I see them is being a company that isn't stuck with a legacy business model. So I expect they -- as well as BYD and other newcomers to the car market -- have an opportunity for growth whereas the major car companies are screwed.

The large car manufacturers are built on the premise of a car market where almost every adult, or at least almost every household, buys a new car every ten years or so (which amounts to about every 100,000 miles, maybe a bit longer).

Self-driving cars reduce the "almost every household" at least by half (more in cities; less in rural areas). And fleet-maintained EVs lengthen the 100,000 miles to double or quadruple as much. So overall the number of cars sold will shrink by a factor of 4 or more. Meanwhile, EVs are much simpler to build, so we'd expect a shrinking need for workers and facilities per car built.

Current car companies have invested heavily in facilities and workers and supply lines devoted to building ICEVs for a big market, and they have lots of debt and equity on the books to pay for those investments. It's going to be very hard for them to transition to the new market that's developing.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2734 on: December 11, 2017, 03:17:34 PM »
Don’t forget, Tesla is not just an EV company. :) They also have a huge battery storage business, which Musk has said will probably eventually be a bigger part of the business than EVs.  The Nevada gigafactory will shortly (2018?) be producing more batteries than the rest of the world combined.  (Unprecedented levels of automation; cells being spit out “faster than a machine gun.”)  And Tesla is planning to announce three or four more gigafactories soon.

I am all for other companies making as many batteries as they possibly can, and battery production will soon be growing exponentially.  But Tesla has such a head start with the gigafactory, it will be a while before anyone else catches up. 

Edit:
P.S.:  Musk has calculated that the world needs around 100 gigafactories for its total battery storage needs.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2017, 03:47:12 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2735 on: December 11, 2017, 05:33:57 PM »
When I made the 4x to 5x Tesla statement I wasn't thinking about Chinese companies. 

Renault/Nissan may be  producing about half as many EVs globally as Tesla.  I suspect I was thinking US sales at the time.

Tesla has a very significant head start.  Looking at the new battery capacity being built in the West now except for the Gigafactory the output is going to be divided across several car manufacturers. Tesla's competitors will have a hard time accessing enough cells to catch up with Tesla for awhile.

BenB

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« Reply #2736 on: December 11, 2017, 06:24:57 PM »
The Nevada gigafactory will shortly (2018?) be producing more batteries than the rest of the world combined.

Again I'm very sceptical about this claim. What numbers are you basing this on? China is rapidly heading towards 100 GWh of annual battery manufacturing capacity. In fact, according to this article it's already there:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/motoring/2017-07/31/content_30300411.htm

Actual production is lower, though. Anyway, BYD alone will have 16 GWh by the end of this year (no doubt rising further next year): http://autonews.gasgoo.com/new_energy/70012136.html

And of course China isn't the only place producing batteries, although it does dominate (apart from Tesla).

Isn't the gigafactory supposed to produce around 35 GWh next year? I think that the real claim was that the gigafactory would produce more than the total global battery production a few years ago (when some important announcement relating to the gigafactory was made). But global battery manufacturing has moved on since then.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2737 on: December 11, 2017, 08:34:27 PM »
VW CEO wants subsidies to increase for EVs, and end for diesel — but please don’t ban ICE vehicles because we still need to sell them.

VW CEO proposes phasing out diesel subsidies to focus on electric vehicles
Quote
During an interview with Handelsblatt this weekend, Volkswagen CEO Matthias Müller said that those incentives should be gradually shifted toward electric cars:

“I’ve become convinced that we should question the sense and purpose of the diesel subsidies. If the switch to environmentally friendly e-cars is to succeed, diesel combustion engines can’t continue to be subsidized the way they have been forever.”

Though Müller added that the proposal would be a solution to avoid a ban on diesel and petrol vehicles, which several European countries are now considering. Norway, France, England, India, Germany, China and Scotland have all announced plans to ban the sale of gasoline vehicles in the upcoming decades, along with the state of California. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/12/11/vw-ceo-phasing-out-diesel-subsidies-to-electric-vehicles/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2738 on: December 11, 2017, 08:41:26 PM »
The Nevada gigafactory will shortly (2018?) be producing more batteries than the rest of the world combined.

Again I'm very sceptical about this claim. What numbers are you basing this on? China is rapidly heading towards 100 GWh of annual battery manufacturing capacity. In fact, according to this article it's already there:

<snip>

This is from July 2017 :
“As part of the Gigafactory update, Tesla shared that when it was up and running at full capacity, the Gigafactory would produce more batteries than the rest of the world combined … by a factor of 2!”

Quote
When the Gigafactory was first announced, it was shared that it would be able to produce more batteries than the rest of the world could build at the time combined. To have that same news be true 4 years later would be impressive, as the rest of the world has continued to ramp up its battery production capacity. That would be a notable feat in and of itself, but to stay on pace with that and then blow the lid off by a factor of two takes it to a whole new level.

Beyond just being an amazing feat and a great use of capital, the news speaks to just how far ahead Tesla is compared to the rest of the automotive companies in the world (combined). If a massive company like Toyota wanted to produce as many electric vehicles as Tesla, it would first need to source batteries. It could go to every other battery company in the world and start building its own factories but it would still be years behind Tesla … assuming the rest of the battery capacity in the world were even for sale. ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/07/29/gigafactory-will-produce-batteries-rest-world-combined-factor-2/

Edit:
Quote
The 2017 Annual Tesla Shareholder Meeting on June 6th ...  One massive update was about the number of Gigafactories Tesla is planning around the world. CEO Elon Musk shared that it is planning for at least 10 Gigafactories, but could build as many as 20.
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/06/07/tesla-build-10-20-gigafactories-around-world/

Edit:  Gigafactory peak output in 2018 will be 35 GWh/yr.  But the factory is only 1/3 complete....
Quote
...According to a company statement, that 2018 peak would yield  "35 GWh/year (gigawatt-hours per year) of lithium-ion battery cells, nearly as much as the rest of the entire world’s battery production combined."
...
Gigafactory is a third complete, covering 5 million square feet on several floors. It is expected to cost $5 billion.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2017/01/04/tesla-gigafactory-begins-battery-production/96133342/
« Last Edit: December 11, 2017, 09:02:59 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #2739 on: December 11, 2017, 09:15:17 PM »
Porsche is working on all-electric ‘derivatives of the Mission E’
Quote
Porsche is starting to see more demand for its hybrid vehicles than its petrol-only:

“In France, for example, the figure is 70 per cent, in Austria it is over 80 per cent and in Belgium it is even over 90 per cent. When it comes to incoming orders, the Scandinavian countries are showing their high affinity for electromobility: In Norway, 90 per cent of all Panamera customers order a hybrid model, while in Finland the figure is 85 per cent.”
Quote
Albrecht Reimold, Member of Porsche’s Executive Board for Production and Logistics, says that the automaker is now getting ready to produce all-electric vehicles in volume:

“Sustainability is the foundation of our company management. Resource-efficient production methods are of the highest priority for Porsche, and are also being factored into the restructuring of our traditional plant in Zuffenhausen for the production of the first purely electric Porsche. Our goal is to achieve CO2-neutral production. We are completely on schedule. The Mission E will be on the market by the end of the decade.”
https://electrek.co/2017/12/11/porsche-all-electric-derivatives-mission-e/
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« Reply #2740 on: December 11, 2017, 10:18:54 PM »
Porsche is working on all-electric ‘derivatives of the Mission E’
Quote
Porsche is starting to see more demand for its hybrid vehicles than its petrol-only:

“In France, for example, the figure is 70 per cent, in Austria it is over 80 per cent and in Belgium it is even over 90 per cent. When it comes to incoming orders, the Scandinavian countries are showing their high affinity for electromobility: In Norway, 90 per cent of all Panamera customers order a hybrid model, while in Finland the figure is 85 per cent.”
Quote
Albrecht Reimold, Member of Porsche’s Executive Board for Production and Logistics, says that the automaker is now getting ready to produce all-electric vehicles in volume:

“Sustainability is the foundation of our company management. Resource-efficient production methods are of the highest priority for Porsche, and are also being factored into the restructuring of our traditional plant in Zuffenhausen for the production of the first purely electric Porsche. Our goal is to achieve CO2-neutral production. We are completely on schedule. The Mission E will be on the market by the end of the decade.”
https://electrek.co/2017/12/11/porsche-all-electric-derivatives-mission-e/

Thank you, Tesla.

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« Reply #2741 on: December 11, 2017, 10:39:59 PM »
I'm with BenB on taking with a large grain of salt the claim that Tesla will be more than half of global battery production at any point. But only because I expect global battery production to boom.

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« Reply #2742 on: December 11, 2017, 11:31:26 PM »
I saw a statement a few months back to the effect that there are now the equivalent of 8 Gigafactories of other battery plants under construction or about to begin construction.

But the output from those new factories will be sought by more than eight car manufacturers as the move to EVs gets underway.  Would there be even 0.5 GFs per manufacturer?

Tesla said earlier that they intended to announce the location of 2 to 4 more Gigafactories this year but I suspect they are holding back until they iron out the module assembly problems at their Reno plant first.

(I suspect they are continuing with their construction plans and pre-construction work, just not talking about new plants while so much shade is being thrown at their first plant.)

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« Reply #2743 on: December 12, 2017, 01:11:14 AM »
Isn’t the next Tesla gigafactory a solar panel factory near Buffalo (from the SolarCity acquisition)?

I had the joy* of reading a few think-pieces on SeekingAlpha from one of their resident Tesla shorts. Man they’re desperate. These poor people deluded themselves in thinking that analyzing a fast-growing company as if it was an established business made sense.

* schadenfreude, of course.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #2744 on: December 12, 2017, 02:45:09 AM »
I've heard someone call the New York solar panel/tile factory "Gigafactory 2".  I don't know what Tesla calls it. 

What I read earlier in the year was that Tesla expected to announce the location of two to four more battery gigafactories late in 2017.

IIRC Tesla has announced a car factory to be built in China.  And orders are coming in for Tesla's truck.

Looking forward to Tesla getting production rates back on track for the Model 3.  Hopefully Tesla will be in the black in a few months and we will see the short sellers on the street begging for coins.

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« Reply #2745 on: December 12, 2017, 03:04:05 AM »
Yes; the Buffalo, New York Tesla solar panel factory is often referred to as Gigafactory 2. (Confusing!)

There are signs the Model 3 production has recently increased:
https://electrek.co/2017/12/11/tesla-model-3-spotted-delivery-centers-regular-customer/

And that Q4 will be a big one for Models S/X as well:
https://electrek.co/2017/12/11/tesla-on-track-record-gangbuster-quarter-deliveries/
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« Reply #2746 on: December 12, 2017, 08:26:18 AM »
Sigmetnow, I think that your links really confirm what I'm saying – in 2018 the gigafactory will reach a run-rate of 35 GWh per annum if all goes to plan, so total production will probably be somewhat less than 35 GWh, assuming that it continues to ramp up through the first part of the year. I'm pretty sure the rest of the world will produce more than that.

Of course Tesla will probably build more battery factories, and of course they will be one of the very biggest (if not the biggest) battery and EV manufacturers for the foreseeable future, and of course they've been the biggest single factor in promoting the adoption of EVs. I just don't think that they will be producing 4-5 times more EVs than anyone else next year or that they will be producing more batteries at one factory than the rest of the world put together at all of the other battery factories in the world.

In short, I'm not attacking Tesla, but I think that some of the claims it makes – or that other people make on its behalf – don't stack up. This forum is great at looking behind the headlines, and I think that should apply to Tesla just like anything else.

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« Reply #2747 on: December 12, 2017, 09:41:40 AM »
https://cleantechnica.com/2017/02/25/china-electric-buses-still-exploding/

A 100 000 busses a year.  What kind of batteries would they be using ?  Because if it's a lithuim-ion battery, most recources are going to China for the moment.

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« Reply #2748 on: December 12, 2017, 11:38:51 AM »
It's Li-ion, but possibly different species, e.g. BYD uses some few years old, $200/kWh LiFe batteries. Buses have 295-350kWh, so that's 35GWh for the buses alone. 2017 Li-ion production seems to be ~60GWh in China, ~100GWh worldwide.

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« Reply #2749 on: December 12, 2017, 11:40:11 AM »
I pondered the simultaneous construction of a gigafactory and a spaceport here in Cornwall not so very long ago:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/02/will-a-cornish-lithium-gigafactory-rival-open-soon/

Quote
The presence of lithium in hot spring brines in Cornwall has been known since the mid-1800s but this was regarded as a curiosity, given there was no developed market for the metal at that time. New technology now offers the potential to extract lithium from these hot spring brines and to supply product to the rapidly growing battery market for electric cars and for power storage.
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