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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2800 on: December 16, 2017, 05:46:51 PM »
Quote
Although 2045 seems rather far out for their goal, don’t forget the costs of shipping all those new EVs to the islands makes it a more expensive proposition than most.

They're going to be shipping something to the Islands.  Might as well be battery powered.  And fuel costs are very high, you have to ship it for every mile you drive with an ICEV.  The saving grace is that there is not a lot of distance to be driven, but it does sting when you fill up.

I think Hawaii might be one of the places to be first to all EV sales.

Over the next decade, the proportion of ICE cars being scrapped rather than resold should increase dramatically.  I imagine the auto scrapping/recycling industry has boom times ahead. :)

I am thinking about the “Talking Tesla” podcast project, where one of the hosts has promised to crush his old ICE car, eliminating the possibility it will ever consume fossil fuels again.  ICE owners who don’t need the resale income might make this a popular option — and the resale value of ICE cars may plunge so low that a small payment in return for for recycling may make it almost as good a financial option, anyway.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2801 on: December 16, 2017, 05:53:06 PM »
Once we get manufacturing volumes up for EVs we might want to think about a long term 'cash for clunkers' program which would give a nice credit toward a new or used EV in exchange for crushing a low MPG vehicle.

We should reach the point at which fuel savings will pay for a decent used EV but a "gift" up front might motivate a lot of people to make the move.

Bigger the gas hog, bigger the trade in value.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2802 on: December 16, 2017, 06:10:02 PM »
Once we get manufacturing volumes up for EVs we might want to think about a long term 'cash for clunkers' program which would give a nice credit toward a new or used EV in exchange for crushing a low MPG vehicle.

We should reach the point at which fuel savings will pay for a decent used EV but a "gift" up front might motivate a lot of people to make the move.

Bigger the gas hog, bigger the trade in value.

Say...  some time within the 2020-2028 (next U.S. Democratic administration) timeframe? ;) :)
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2803 on: December 16, 2017, 06:47:24 PM »
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2804 on: December 16, 2017, 09:11:50 PM »
Once we get manufacturing volumes up for EVs we might want to think about a long term 'cash for clunkers' program which would give a nice credit toward a new or used EV in exchange for crushing a low MPG vehicle.

We should reach the point at which fuel savings will pay for a decent used EV but a "gift" up front might motivate a lot of people to make the move.

Bigger the gas hog, bigger the trade in value.

Wouldn't be even better from a LCA-perspective to swap the ICE for an electric engine and batteries? Crushing a car and recycling costs a lot more energy than just re-using the car right away.

That's what I would do if there would be any real, affordable options. There are a handful of companies in Germany offering just that, but it's incredibly expensive (at least as expensive as a new EV) and they rely on heavy LiFePo batteries.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2805 on: December 16, 2017, 09:48:00 PM »
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Say...  some time within the 2020-2028 (next U.S. Democratic administration) timeframe?

I think EVs have broken free from the gravity field of US politics.  EVs are global and, I think, all non-Chinese manufacturers realize that they better get cracking with their own EVs least China and Tesla eat their breakfast, lunch and dinner.

A Crush the Hog program in the US would have to wait on a return to sanity.

Quote
Wouldn't be even better from a LCA-perspective to swap the ICE for an electric engine and batteries? Crushing a car and recycling costs a lot more energy than just re-using the car right away.

It's kind of like putting a gas engine into a horse drawn wagon.  It's been tried and it just doesn't work out all that well.  Better to design the car body around the battery pack rather than try to fit a battery pack into a vehicle designed for a fueled engine and transmission.

I've seen several ICEVs turned into EVs and it's hard and labor intensive.  Typically you end up losing the trunk space in addition to under hood space if you want anything more than ~20 mile range.

EVs are almost certain to end up costing less than a similar featured ICEV.  They are simply so much simpler to build (once battery cell prices come down so more).

New tech costs a lot at first. 

Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2806 on: December 17, 2017, 12:51:58 AM »
It's kind of like putting a gas engine into a horse drawn wagon.  It's been tried and it just doesn't work out all that well.  Better to design the car body around the battery pack rather than try to fit a battery pack into a vehicle designed for a fueled engine and transmission.

Sure, but would it be more environmentally friendly, especially if done right?
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2807 on: December 17, 2017, 01:22:08 AM »
It's kind of like putting a gas engine into a horse drawn wagon.  It's been tried and it just doesn't work out all that well.  Better to design the car body around the battery pack rather than try to fit a battery pack into a vehicle designed for a fueled engine and transmission.

Sure, but would it be more environmentally friendly, especially if done right?

Possibly.  But if the cost is higher then it won't happen except in rare cases.

The goal, I think, should be to get as many people as possible into EVs as quickly as possible.  That means getting the cost down ASAP.  If we sidetracked some buyers into conversions that might mean cutting volume in EV factories and slowing price drops.  Just guessing.

I'm not sure how many mules would be available for conversion.  You'd want a fairly new car because it looks like batteries and motors last a long time.  Not a 15 year old car that has relatively little body life left.  How many ~3 year ICEVs would we find that need an engine replacement?  The cost of buying a relatively new ICEV and tossing an engine that was in good shape would drive up the price.


oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2808 on: December 17, 2017, 01:40:32 AM »
Usually, if it costs much more to retrofit then it's probably also less environmentally friendly than recycling the old car and getting a new EV off an automated production line.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2809 on: December 17, 2017, 01:51:28 AM »
The same was said for Paypal, Amazon, Facebook and Google.... These ventures don't plan on being profitable early on.

The problem with Uber is that the business model is too easy to replicate. For under $100k you can set up a website with an app. The vast bulk of the ridership are people who live in that city, so the barrier to entry is an ad campaign in one city. The only advantage they had was their willingness to brazenly ignore the law and break the taxi monopoly -- but now that the monopolies have been broken and the laws eased up, anyone can benefit from that advantage.

Their only hope is developing self-driving cars.


A financial services company like Paypal requires a lot of trust on sides -- and PayPal particularly requires two parties who don't trust each other to both trust a third party -- so it's hard to set up a competing service.

Amazon has huge efficiencies of scale, so it's hard to set up a new one (but Alibaba did).

Facebook is one of many of the same thing; there's a natural monopoly in social media, but it could be broken in a year if a new cool social media app comes out.

Google had technology that was hard to replicate, and used that to spread into other domains before the technology became obsolete.

I don't think Uber would be very easy to compete with, in an area where it's already established.  Every rider wants the system with the most subscribed drivers.  Every driver wants the system with the most passengers. 

Beyond this, there's a lot more to the system than pushing an app out to the web.   Pretty massive computing power is needed to track available drivers and calculate their *time*, not distance to a particular rider when he calls, then ping only the closest drivers.  The gps/mapping/driving interface has to be negotiated with Google Maps (or whoever).

Uber is burning through cash in order to expand everywhere at once, before individual markets can be dominated by some competitor.  Once dominant in a market, they'll be able to increase prices significantly. 

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2810 on: December 17, 2017, 02:45:13 AM »
Uber just needs to price right below driven cars, taxi and Uber drivers.

There's no reason for Uber to price any lower than that until they get some competition.  Just grabbing all the people who now pay to be driven somewhere should be their first goal.  Keep their rates reasonably high in order to earn back their investment.

Once they've grabbed the market of 'those who now pay' they might want to drop rates some in order to bring more customers into play and increase their profits by increasing volume at a smaller profit per mile.
---

I'm not saying that Uber will make it.  They might go bankrupt.  Just thinking out their best pricing strategy.


Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2811 on: December 17, 2017, 08:58:48 AM »
I'm not saying that Uber will make it.  They might go bankrupt.

Uber isn't very popular with the Lord Mayor of London at the moment:

https://tfl.gov.uk/info-for/media/press-releases/2017/september/licensing-decision-on-uber-london-limited
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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2812 on: December 17, 2017, 11:28:17 AM »
Usually, if it costs much more to retrofit then it's probably also less environmentally friendly than recycling the old car and getting a new EV off an automated production line.


How about a set of bolt on wheel motors & an expandable battery pack for the trunk.


While your vehicle still has that new car smell, you run it as a plug in hybrid. Whenever the engine or transmission craps out, you dump then & replace them with a few of your expandable battery packs.


Turn yesterday's VW sedan into an E-dune buggy by buying extra motor kits. ::)
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2813 on: December 17, 2017, 03:10:03 PM »
The only way I can see for upgrading ICEV to EV in a massive scale is by automating the process. A mostly robotic assembly line is needed to remove unnecesary components, perform all necessary modifications to the vehicle,  install batteries, motors, regenerative breaking systems ect.

 To me, that seems possible with current technology but the economics are not there (if you ignore climate change). Too much uncertainty at too high a cost.

But who knows, maybe with advances in robotics, manufacturing and recycling the task of upgrading an ICE to an EV can become economical.

Some examples I like of EV conversions

The Zombie 222. An EV 1968 Mustang.


Then on the other end of the spectrum

An electric VW Samba by Jehu Garcia.
Electric Samba Series: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL2l32K1w0jp-m04Jl-3PHmtapevOuCeIp

Jehu's channel is fantastic for anyone interested in DIY EV or battery power in general.

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BenB

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2814 on: December 18, 2017, 11:16:01 AM »
BAIC sold over 15,000 copies of its EC series in November, which is a new record for an EV:

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com.es/2017/12/china-november-2017.html

In total, almost 85,000 NEVs were sold in China in november.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2815 on: December 18, 2017, 04:01:08 PM »
More allegations about Uber:

https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2017/12/uber-has-a-team-dedicated-to-stealing-trade-secrets-jacobs-letter-alleges/

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Although partially redacted, the letter contains explicit descriptions of illegal and unethical operations carried out by dedicated teams at the company behind the popular ride-sharing service. Among other questionable practices, the letter said that trade secrets stolen from other companies were nailed “like a scalp” to the office wall.

The letter was written in May 2017 to an Uber lawyer from the lawyer of a former Uber employee, Richard Jacobs, ex-manager of global intelligence, who was allegedly demoted after refusing to engage in unethical and illicit activities. The letter could be easily accessed by Uber executives, Cooper said.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2816 on: December 18, 2017, 09:58:13 PM »
Car guy Alex Roy has some interesting thoughts on why the Tesla Model 3 will be the next big thing in cars (hint: it’s not the hardware).  And why Tesla’s surprisingly affordable price and range for their semi truck does not require the huge battery chemistry or architecture breakthrough that many claim.  See the section headed “What Is Tesla’s Big Secret?”

The Truth Behind Doug DeMuro's Tesla Model 3 Review
http://www.thedrive.com/opinion/15838/the-truth-behind-doug-demuros-tesla-model-3-review
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2817 on: December 19, 2017, 09:54:16 AM »
By way of providing some balance! Brent Toderian's critique of Elon Musk's "boring idea for car tunnels":

https://twitter.com/BrentToderian/status/858908514374238208

Quote
The danger of high-tech silver bullets - they can give politicians an excuse to keep doing the wrong things on land use.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2818 on: December 19, 2017, 01:54:27 PM »
Nissan have just started up the European production line of the 2018 model year LEAF:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/12/nissan-start-european-production-of-2018-leaf/

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With the first new LEAFs now rolling off the line at Nissan’s plant in Sunderland, UK, the countdown has now started to the first customers receiving their vehicles in February.

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silkman

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2819 on: December 19, 2017, 02:48:08 PM »
I've just traded in my seven year old formerly "eco-friendly" diesel for a BMW i3. Here it is Knutsford Services on the M6 contributing a massive £3.73 to Dale Vince's Ecotricity account.

I've got the range extender version. Unlike a hybrid it only has electric power but has a small 650cc ICE engine that, when needs must, will drive a generator to maintain charge in the battery. Its battery range is about 100 miles and the range extender adds a further 75 or so if you need it, using the nine litre fuel tank.

I haven't needed to resort to the extender yet and don't intend to but I like the extra security it offers given the current undeveloped state of the charging network in the UK.

In truth it's a bit of a compromise but with a solar array on my roof and most of my miles Local I think it will work well for me.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2820 on: December 19, 2017, 03:37:46 PM »
I've got the range extender version.

I test drove an i3 REx once. I too tried to avoid burning any petrol. It didn't end well!

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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2821 on: December 19, 2017, 04:02:44 PM »
Congratulations, silkman.  I 'feel' for you-all who bought "eco-friendly" diesels only to discover they weren't.  (Personally, but with only a 'gut feeling', I found it hard to believe diesels could be eco-friendly.)

Just curious:  if the BMW i3's 9l tank and ICE engine/generator were (conceptually) replaced with batteries, what would the car's range be?  Would volume or weight be the limiting factor if converting the car to all-electric?

Driving a (15 year old) Prius, I too have batteries and a 'range extending' ICE engine, only my batteries will go only a few miles on their own!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2822 on: December 19, 2017, 04:21:29 PM »
...

Just curious:  if the BMW i3's 9l tank and ICE engine/generator were (conceptually) replaced with batteries, what would the car's range be?  Would volume or weight be the limiting factor if converting the car to all-electric?
...

The 2014 all-electric version of the BMW i3 gets about an 81 mile (130 km) range (EPA rating).  There was a slightly “sportier” refresh for 2018, but the battery is still only about 30kWh.  The i3 range remains a big disappointment.  :-\
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2823 on: December 19, 2017, 04:27:38 PM »
Another “record” in that it is the largest announced order so far.... ;)

Tesla Semi receives another record order of 125 electric trucks from UPS
https://electrek.co/2017/12/19/tesla-semi-record-order-125-electric-trucks-ups/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2824 on: December 19, 2017, 04:55:02 PM »
Poor Toyota.  Making hybrids the spine of their business at this late stage is foolhardy.  Then again, they probably realize that they (in fact, the world) does not have the battery supply capability for anything more.  A better response would be to announce the construction of several battery gigafactories, with an all-out push of BEVs by 2025.  Perhaps their plan will morph that way over time.

Toyota announces major expansion of its electric car plans: 10 new BEVs, all models to have electric motors
https://electrek.co/2017/12/18/toyota-electric-car-plans/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2825 on: December 19, 2017, 05:28:08 PM »
Brief discussion of EV batteries versus cold weather.
Tesla has always had the ability to schedule charging... so you can plug in, but not charge until electricity rates are cheaper, or, finish charging shortly before you will leave, so the battery is warm from charging.  Since the feature mentioned here is a software update, not hardware, it might be that Tesla previously felt this was an added complexity for an owner that would rarely be needed.

(Note: the “automatic windshield wiper” comment is an inside joke; newer Teslas are missing this feature and it is a popular owner gripe. ;D )

Tesla is working on a battery pre-heating feature to maximize efficiency in cold climates
https://electrek.co/2017/12/19/tesla-battery-pre-heating-feature-maximize-efficiency-cold-climates/
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2826 on: December 19, 2017, 05:37:15 PM »
The 2014 all-electric version of the BMW i3 gets about an 81 mile (130 km) range (EPA rating).

In actual fact there was an i3 "go further" upgrade in 2016, here in Europe at least:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2016/05/bmw-announce-new-195-mile-range-i3/

Quote
The BMW i3 94Ah replaces the current 60Ah model and has a capacity of 33kWh thanks to the higher storage density of the lithium ion cells. The battery dimensions remain unchanged with more than a 50 per cent range increase in the standard NEDC cycle. This equals a range of 195 miles in everyday driving.

Take the "195 miles in everyday driving" with a large pinch of salt of course, but even so please do try to get your facts straight.
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« Reply #2827 on: December 19, 2017, 06:02:21 PM »
By way of providing some balance! Brent Toderian's critique of Elon Musk's "boring idea for car tunnels":


Brent presents a one-sided, unbalanced view of Boring's tunnels. 

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2828 on: December 19, 2017, 07:30:47 PM »
Beyond this, there's a lot more to the system than pushing an app out to the web.   Pretty massive computing power is needed to track available drivers and calculate their *time*, not distance to a particular rider when he calls, then ping only the closest drivers.  The gps/mapping/driving interface has to be negotiated with Google Maps (or whoever).

Negotiation consists of agreeing to the terms and typing in your credit card number.

Call up a web designer, I bet they'll estimate about $100k to set up the system.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2829 on: December 19, 2017, 07:40:35 PM »
Beyond this, there's a lot more to the system than pushing an app out to the web.   Pretty massive computing power is needed to track available drivers and calculate their *time*, not distance to a particular rider when he calls, then ping only the closest drivers.  The gps/mapping/driving interface has to be negotiated with Google Maps (or whoever).

Negotiation consists of agreeing to the terms and typing in your credit card number.

Call up a web designer, I bet they'll estimate about $100k to set up the system.

And vetting all the drivers?

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2830 on: December 19, 2017, 07:45:21 PM »
How much has embodied carbon decreased for electric cars?

How much improvement in the embodied carbon in electric cars has there been since this report by Climate Central was written,  Roadmap to Climate-Friendly Cars: 2013. In Table 9, it gave carbon emissions from the manufacture of an electric car as 26,933 pounds of CO2e (12.2 tonnes CO2e).

Note: the embodied carbon in a gasoline car was given as 16,375 pounds CO2e (7.4 tonnes CO2e).
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2831 on: December 19, 2017, 07:47:00 PM »
The 2017 i3 without the range extender has the same 33 KWh capacity battery as mine but has a slightly better battery only range courtesy of its lower weight, realistically around 120 miles.

I have grandchildren 150 miles away in Bristol (almost Jim Hunt territory!)and came to the conclusion that I'd benefit from the Range extender for security.

I see it a as logical intermediate step and have a lease deal that will allow me to change when a better option becomes available and the UK charging networks get a little more reliable.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2832 on: December 19, 2017, 07:47:58 PM »
Brent presents a one-sided, unbalanced view of Boring's tunnels.

Would you care to elucidate Bob?
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2833 on: December 19, 2017, 08:08:24 PM »
Call up a web designer, I bet they'll estimate about $100k to set up the system.

Here's a UK attempt to crowdfund a Uber clone:

https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/faircab

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We are seeking £30,000 to help us:

    Research the technology, legal framework, financial models and experiences of other taxi coops internationally.
    Co-produce with drivers and passengers a blueprint for creating and running CabFair.
    Develop a viable business plan.
    Engage with key political and regulatory decision makers.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2834 on: December 19, 2017, 10:45:41 PM »
How much has embodied carbon decreased for electric cars?

How much improvement in the embodied carbon in electric cars has there been since this report by Climate Central was written,  Roadmap to Climate-Friendly Cars: 2013. In Table 9, it gave carbon emissions from the manufacture of an electric car as 26,933 pounds of CO2e (12.2 tonnes CO2e).

Note: the embodied carbon in a gasoline car was given as 16,375 pounds CO2e (7.4 tonnes CO2e).

That's based on a grid fed by more than 50% fossil fuels and a transportation system run on petroleum.  Short term conditions.  We'll work through the problem.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2835 on: December 19, 2017, 10:53:12 PM »
Brent presents a one-sided, unbalanced view of Boring's tunnels.

Would you care to elucidate Bob?

Sure.  He ignores the 'passenger pods' which can use the same system to move groups of people, non-stop, from point to point.

My guess is that Boring started talking about single car sleds as a route to getting deeper pocket people to finance the first projects just as the Roadster and Models S and X created a route to more affordable EVs.

Imagine.  You want to go from home to downtown or the airport.  You go to your Boring station and board a pod with people going to the same destination.  You don't stop along the way for people to push their way off and on the car.  You travel at over 100 MPH, arrive, and all depart at the same time.

This is the type of public transportation we need.  Not subways stopping at every station and never reaching much speed before it's time to stop again.

If a route gets too popular then you bore another tunnel. 

GeoffBeacon

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2836 on: December 19, 2017, 11:23:29 PM »
How much has embodied carbon decreased for electric cars?

How much improvement in the embodied carbon in electric cars has there been since this report by Climate Central was written,  Roadmap to Climate-Friendly Cars: 2013. In Table 9, it gave carbon emissions from the manufacture of an electric car as 26,933 pounds of CO2e (12.2 tonnes CO2e).

Note: the embodied carbon in a gasoline car was given as 16,375 pounds CO2e (7.4 tonnes CO2e).

That's based on a grid fed by more than 50% fossil fuels and a transportation system run on petroleum.  Short term conditions.  We'll work through the problem.

But will we "work through the problem" quickly enough?

Will it be quickly  enough to keep within remaining carbon budgets?

Updating the Global Carbon Project’s remaining carbon budget number for the end of 2014, in Global carbon budgets and wildfires, I got under 120 tonnes CO2e per person in the world (from the end of 2016). (I would like to point out I wrote this before the current tragic phase of the Californian wildfires.)

Dividing carbon budgets into equal sized categories for food, transport, building and government, gives about 30 tonnes for transport.  Even if the12.3 tonnes has decreased a bit, it's a sizeable chunk. 

Fewer cars

The challenge is to create new low carbon lifestyles quickly and to persuade developing countries to take them up and not to do what the "developed world" has done.  One start is to have much fewer cars.

P.S. The remaining carbon budget above is for a 2°C rise in global temperature. For 1.5°C, it's 75% smaller. I suspect that just building an electric car busts an individual's share of  the 1.5°C remaining carbon budget.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2837 on: December 19, 2017, 11:33:08 PM »
Quickly enough for what?

Climate change is already kicking our butts.  We didn't act quickly enough to prevent that.  So, quickly enough to avoid 2C warming?  More than 2C warming?

I have no idea.  We clearly won't if we continue to use ICEVs running on petroleum and feeding fossil fuels to our grids.  Our only option for avoiding extreme climate change, that I can see, is to move to electric transportation and remove FF from our grids ASAP.  If we release a little more CO2 by building EVs (with our present dirty grids) at least we'll override that extra CO2 by burning less petroleum.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2838 on: December 19, 2017, 11:42:16 PM »
The critical thing is not the CO2 emitted in battery manufacturing but the lifespan emission of EVs vs. ICEVs.  Sure, one part might release more CO2 but does that matter when it comes to the larger picture?

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But what are the global warming emissions of electric cars on a life cycle basis—from the manufacturing of the vehicle’s body and battery to its ultimate disposal and reuse?

To answer this, the Union of Concerned Scientists undertook a comprehensive, two-year review of the climate emissions from vehicle production, operation, and disposal.

We found that battery electric cars generate half the emissions of the average comparable gasoline car, even when pollution from battery manufacturing is accounted for.

https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/life-cycle-ev-emissions#.WjmTyGinHIU

And, again, that's with today's batteries.  When Tesla's Gigafactory is compete it will be powered by solar panels on its roof and wind turbines on surrounding hills.  Clean grid. 

And the materials and completed battery packs will be moved from the Bay Area to the Reno plant in battery powered trucks.  No petroleum.

GeoffBeacon

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2839 on: December 19, 2017, 11:58:34 PM »
Bob Wallace

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Our only option for avoiding extreme climate change, that I can see, is to move to electric transportation and remove FF from our grids ASAP.

Not enough. In addition we must have fewer cars and less traveling.

I dream of living in a city that has no cars, a bit like car-free Venice.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2840 on: December 20, 2017, 12:25:40 AM »
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In addition we must have fewer cars and less traveling.

As long as we build our cars and electricity generation systems out of sustainable materials and use low carbon inputs then we can own as many cars as we like and travel as much as we like.


crandles

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2841 on: December 20, 2017, 12:30:23 AM »

But will we "work through the problem" quickly enough?

Will it be quickly enough to keep within remaining carbon budgets?


Are your carbon budgets busted as easily as you think?

So what if we go over your carbon budget getting to all electric from renewables and all land transport electric? So we go beyond the budget but by then electricity is cheap and so we can then afford some air capture along with some biofuels for niche sectors that still require energy density of those biofuels.

Spending a long time over the budget seems a bad idea particularly if West Antarctic ice cliff instability might start an irreversible retreat that a slow carbon drawdown wouldn't fix. Spending some time over your low carbon budget seems likely even if I am optimistic that the transition to renewables will be quite quick.

The priority seems to me to be to treat the renewables transition as a capital investment problem. Environmentalists should be turning their attention towards retaining financial advisors and fund managers to advise government on what need to be done to get a swift transition.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2842 on: December 20, 2017, 01:23:13 AM »
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treat the renewables transition as a capital investment problem

Add in the avoided cost of not transitioning. 

From an economic viewpoint we should be installing renewables and manufacturing EVs at the rate we produced war materials during World War II.

GeoffBeacon

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2843 on: December 20, 2017, 05:13:20 AM »
I'm always suspicious of Bjorn Lomborg but his jibe that electric cars are coal fired cars makes a point: See

The Union of Concerned Scientists video was good be good to see their comments on BL.






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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2844 on: December 20, 2017, 05:28:02 AM »
US cars run on coal?  Some grids still use coal, some are coal-lite.  California gets only about 4% of its electricity from coal (and that will go away when current contracts expire).  But what if there's some coal on the grid?  Might it be better to have a little coal as opposed to all petroleum?

Here's a two year old graphic that shows the miles per gallon equivalent to EVs on the various US grids. 



On the dirtiest grids in 2015 a Prius might be somewhat better but those grids are cleaner now than they were two years ago.  And they will likely get cleaner and cleaner as years go by.  The Prius burning petroleum won't.

Not everything will be perfect as we move through the transition off fossil fuels.  We can't make that move overnight.  If we get hung up on something not being perfect we could stall out.

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2845 on: December 20, 2017, 08:56:41 AM »
Quote
treat the renewables transition as a capital investment problem

Add in the avoided cost of not transitioning. 

From an economic viewpoint we should be installing renewables and manufacturing EVs at the rate we produced war materials during World War II.
This.

Rob Dekker

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2846 on: December 20, 2017, 09:41:38 AM »
Quote
treat the renewables transition as a capital investment problem

Add in the avoided cost of not transitioning. 

From an economic viewpoint we should be installing renewables and manufacturing EVs at the rate we produced war materials during World War II.
This.

Exactly.
At the very least we should be encouraging renewables, not suppress it as the Fossil Fuel lobby is doing right now :
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2016/02/23/new-report-finds-net-metering-under-attack-across-the-united-states_100023348/
This is our planet. This is our time.
Let's not waste either.

silkman

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2847 on: December 20, 2017, 09:49:32 AM »
While I can accept the overall logic of Geoff Beacon's arguments about EVs I'm happy to be taking a path that currently represents the art of the possible.

My move from diesel to an EV that offers, in my view, the closest alignment of my needs with the lowest possible day to day carbon footprint is doing two things.

Firstly, I'm no longer contributing to the local burden of Nitrogen oxides and PM 2.5 that is making air quality hazardous in congested parts of my small home town. Secondly, I'm making a real, visible statement about the direction of travel.

I'm not going to change the world with this approach any more than the zero food miles associated with the organic vegetables from my allotment will change the impact of the local supermarket but I'm setting what I think is a good example to friends, neighbours (some of whom think I'm nuts!) and most of all to my six grandchildren.

Have a great holiday season, everyone. My primary target is to get from here to Bristol for New Year down two of the UK's busiest roads without reverting to an ICE. One small step......

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2848 on: December 20, 2017, 09:54:27 AM »
Nicely said silkman, and good luck with your goal.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2849 on: December 20, 2017, 01:03:17 PM »
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I'm making a real, visible statement about the direction of travel.

You're doing more than that.  With each EV sold the market moves further from the internal combustion engine and petroleum.  As signs of a massive market shift becomes clearer car manufacturers will take the task of transforming their companies more seriously.