Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....  (Read 1471403 times)

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 602
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2950 on: December 27, 2017, 05:56:17 AM »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Mathiasdm

  • New ice
  • Posts: 10
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2951 on: December 27, 2017, 06:06:04 AM »
I've been on many pedestrian roads.

Our cities are already too crowded.  We can't take more than the odd block here and there out of use without really stuffing things up.
Induced demand works both ways. Pedestrianizing roads can result in reduced car traffic in the entire area.

In my city, it resulted in more cycling (up 30% as soon as the plan was introduced, iirc), more public transit and much cars in the city.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2952 on: December 27, 2017, 06:53:50 AM »
I wonder what happens, businesswise, to a street that gets turned into pedestrians only?

Thinking back to the ones I've seen my impression is that they did marginal business.  Mostly surviving on selling ice cream and souvenirs to tourists.  There weren't, that I can remember, any thriving businesses.  Nothing like big banks or office buildings.

I'm guessing that the high volume business places were largely in parts of the city where one could conveniently get to with a car.  Places with big parking lots.

Maybe I've only seen the tourist sorts of places.  Perhaps there are carless sections of cities that do booming business and I haven't managed to wander into any.

Years back Guadalajara built a beautiful pedestrians only area.  Fountains, sculpture, places to sit and relax.  Lots of restaurants and nice clothing stores opened up.  I went back a fews years later and the whole area was basically a wasteland.  A few stores selling cheap stuff but most of the buildings empty.

La Rambla in Barcelona, best I remember, was mostly tourist stuff and some restaurants.  And not a lot of people.  But it was rainy the days I was there so maybe at times things pick up.

A couple of pedestrian only streets in South America - same thing.  Junky stores and some tourists.  Local families walking around on weekends, eating ice cream.  No one was there buying TVs or sofas or even groceries.

The piazzas of Rome and Florence.  Tourists with marginal shops around. 

Anyone know of pedestrian only areas of cities where there is lots of economic activity?

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2953 on: December 27, 2017, 10:28:26 AM »
The two communities I'd mentioned were not impoverished in any way. Part of the perceived value was their car free environment.


In the early 70's Riverside California declared it's main thoroughfare to be pedestrian only. The fountains and benches Bob spoke of were everywhere. The immediate result was that businesses fled the area and a depression that lasted 20 years ensued. Since the mid 90's the area is again able to charge high rents & businesses are thriving.


These regions all have close to ideal climates year round. I'm not sure how well ditching cars would work in Toronto, Chicago, or Anchorage.
Terry

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2954 on: December 27, 2017, 11:43:24 AM »
Bob:

I'm familiar with 16th Street Mall in Denver, Pear Street Mall in Boulder, and Aspen , CO also has a pedestrian Mall.  All are still thriving I believe.  In the US we call them malls...but in Europe I think they refer to them as "pedestrian zones" (per Wikipedia).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedestrian_zone
« Last Edit: December 27, 2017, 01:40:36 PM by Buddy »
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

GeoffBeacon

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 394
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2955 on: December 27, 2017, 02:28:56 PM »
Bob Wallace
Quote
Geoff, I take it you didn't take time to read about Barcelona? 

I did look at that Guardian piece but didn't have time to comment. Now...

I live in the centre of an historic and pleasant city, York, - spoiled by the modest amount of polluting traffic that gets in. (Actually the diesel buses to our greenwash university are the worst.) Otherwise it's great to live here but it would cost (and carbon cost) far too much to build another like it and it would be stupid to try. Let's use it as it is. Looking at the Guardian piece, I would say the same about Barcelona.

Cars take too much space.

Compact pleasant living is something difficult to achieve if cars are allowed. As I wrote in 1972

Quote
2.0  The problem is that of designing an environment for people, who occupy a few square feet and need tens of square feet to move, which can also accommodate a large number of motor cars, which occupy hundreds of square feet  and need thousands of square feet to move. This has consequences for housing design and for urban form.

Cars don't really belong in compact towns. They take too much space.

Where could I go next?

There is limited accommodation in compact old historic cities. That means rents are high and one day I might want to move. Now why should I, and lots like me, have to live somewhere where we need a car, when without motorists as neighbours, we could have local shops, pubs, post offices, bus services and even good quality locally produced food?

Another comment on Barcelona.

In Superblocks, Barcelona Answer to Car-Centric City Pablo Valerio writes:

Quote
It’s no secret that the good days of the automobile are over,” urban planner Jan Gehl says. In 2009, we saw the peak of driving in the world, and it’s on the way down. The automobile was a good thing in the ‘Wild West’ of Detroit in 1905…. The days of the automobile as something for everyone in the world are definitely over…. In a denser city, with walking and bicycling you can get anywhere quickly.
Il faut cultiver notre cité-jardin
The Sustainable Plotlands Association

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2956 on: December 27, 2017, 04:30:07 PM »
A solution for the autonomous car age:
A ‘ring’ (perimeter) road around the edge of a city, with exits for local traffic only. 
Speed in city limited to ~10mph/15kph (the speed of a trotting horse. ;)
No parking in the city; remote (mostly short-term) parking lots only. 
Vehicles come in, drop off/pick up, and leave.  (Still need trucks to deliver groceries, etc. to stores....) 
No circling around looking for a parking space, no ‘through-traffic.’
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2957 on: December 27, 2017, 04:32:24 PM »
VW is doubling its e-Golf electric car production following strong domestic demand
Quote
Volkswagen still doesn’t have a full all-electric car program from the ground up in production, but it is already seeing demand for EVs increasing and it decided to turn to its compliance EV, the e-Golf, to satisfy demand.

Last week, VW announced that it will be adding a new shift on the e-Golf production line at the Transparent Factory in Dresden in order to double their production capacity.

The German automaker wrote in a press release:

“To meet higher demand for the e-Golf, production capacity at the Transparent Factory is to be increased. From March 2018, production is to increase step-by-step from 35 to 70 vehicles per day. The plant will switch from single-shift operation to 2-shift operation in the course of this change.”

They say that the move, which is coming just ahead of Volkswagen launching its next-generation EVs, is due to increasing demand for electric vehicles in Europe and especially in their home country due to the recent federal EV incentive and the old diesel scrappage program. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/12/27/vw-doubling-e-golf-electric-car-production-strong-demand/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2958 on: December 27, 2017, 04:54:44 PM »
U.S.:
Median electric car range increased by 56% over the last 6 years
Quote
In the general public, the range on a single charge is still the biggest concern when it comes to electric vehicles. That’s despite the fact that most EVs have enough range to cover their average commute several times over.

A longer range is believed to be key for wider EV adoption and the vehicles offered on the market are certainly going in the right direction with the median all-electric vehicle range growing from 73 miles (117 km) in model year 2011 to 114 miles (183 km) in model year 2017 of EVs available in the US. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/12/26/average-electric-car-range/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2959 on: December 27, 2017, 05:09:53 PM »
Elon Musk confirms Tesla pickup truck coming ‘after Model Y’

“I promise that we will make a pickup truck right after Model Y. Have had the core design/engineering elements in my mind for almost 5 years. Am dying to build it.”
https://electrek.co/2017/12/26/elon-musk-tesla-pickup-truck-coming-after-model-y/

“With... a new kind of pickup truck....”
Master Plan, Part Deux
Elon Musk July 20, 2016
https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux

This is the only image of a pickup truck Tesla has shown us.  “A pickup truck carrying another pickup truck.”  Is it a joke?

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2960 on: December 27, 2017, 05:41:07 PM »
My newsfeed doesn’t show me many anti-EV articles. (I can’t imagine why. ;) ;D)  So I was surprised to see this one from Bloomberg, which is usually pretty pro-EV these days.  Without mentioning a word about compliance cars or zero-emission mandates, it suggests the numerous planned future EV models are foolish because the market has not been proven to exist.

I suppose it could simply be pandering to Bloomberg’s “premium content” audience.  The article often (but not always) comes up paywalled, but I read it fine through Twitter.

The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers
There will be more than 100 different battery-powered vehicles available in five years, despite little interest so far from drivers.
Quote
“Tesla has a cult following and that helps build the hype,” Schuster said. “Other companies say, ‘How do we capture some of this buzz Tesla has? Can we do it by electrifying our lineup, too?’”

There’s a growing optimism that the electric market is ready for liftoff, based in part on improvements in battery chemistry and costs and in part on the Field of Dreams adage: If you build it, they will come. Still, the rush to electrify in the face of uncertain demand has left auto suppliers on edge. They have to build factories and invest to develop components of battery-powered propulsion systems to support the automakers’ aggressive ambitions.

Magna International Inc., for example, the largest auto supplier in North America, is having vigorous debates over whether to add capacity to tool up for electric cars when its executives don’t see much demand for them over the next eight years. The company predicts EVs will only grow to between 3 percent and 6 percent of global auto sales by 2025, said Jim Tobin, chief marketing officer at the Canadian company. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-12-19/the-near-future-of-electric-cars-many-models-few-buyers

Here’s the Twitter link:  https://twitter.com/business/status/945326692817453056
« Last Edit: December 27, 2017, 05:48:48 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20375
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2961 on: December 27, 2017, 05:52:48 PM »
Bloomberg anti-EV ? Looked to me more like an illustration of the problem the USA automobile industry has at the moment - the Trump effect? In Europe the decision is made - EV all the way. California ? Ditto.
The mid-west?  We will see. For a supplier it is a case of get it wrong and goodbye.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Mathiasdm

  • New ice
  • Posts: 10
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2962 on: December 27, 2017, 06:11:21 PM »
I wonder what happens, businesswise, to a street that gets turned into pedestrians only?
Good question!

The purely pedestrian-only area in my city did not increase a lot since the new plan was introduced in April, but only local car-traffic was allowed inside the ring road. That had a large impact, and it will be interesting to see the economic impact after a year (and after five years). I'll report back on that...

A solution for the autonomous car age:
A ‘ring’ (perimeter) road around the edge of a city, with exits for local traffic only. 
Speed in city limited to ~10mph/15kph (the speed of a trotting horse. ;)
No parking in the city; remote (mostly short-term) parking lots only. 
Vehicles come in, drop off/pick up, and leave.  (Still need trucks to deliver groceries, etc. to stores....) 
No circling around looking for a parking space, no ‘through-traffic.’
Interesting idea. I think this or some variation of it is probably where many cities are headed. I don't quite agree on the speed limit, trams and buses should still keep a 30 kph speed, probably.

I don't think the idea is feasible without autonomous cars, because people still want to park their car close by right now.

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2963 on: December 27, 2017, 06:13:25 PM »
A solution for the autonomous car age:
A ‘ring’ (perimeter) road around the edge of a city, with exits for local traffic only. 
Speed in city limited to ~10mph/15kph (the speed of a trotting horse. ;)
No parking in the city; remote (mostly short-term) parking lots only. 
Vehicles come in, drop off/pick up, and leave.  (Still need trucks to deliver groceries, etc. to stores....) 
No circling around looking for a parking space, no ‘through-traffic.’
That would be great. Add some autonomous on demand vehicles for us who live in the countryside. We better hurry up, though.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2964 on: December 27, 2017, 07:41:48 PM »
A solution for the autonomous EV age - the modify existing cities version:

Some streets 'not pedestrian friendly'.  No parking.  No stopping.  Designed to move cars as rapidly as possible to their final destination block (or out of town).  Maybe one way, maybe two lanes in each direction.

Because self driving cars will be able to all start at the same instance lights could be se to move multiple blocks of cars through per green light.
 
A ‘ring’ (perimeter) road around the edge of a city, with exits for local traffic only.
 
Speed on pedestrian streets limited to 5 MPH.  Would take about 2 minutes to drive the length of the block (?).  Probably only one traffic lane on pedestrian blocks.  Pull outs on both sides of the traffic lane for passenger drop off/pick up and deliveries.  Let bikes run in the traffic lane.

No parking in the city except residents in their own garage or driveway. 

Vehicles come in, drop off/pick up, and leave.  (Still need trucks to deliver groceries, etc. to stores....)

Electric vehicles will eliminate the noise and air pollution problems.  Self-driving cars will make it safe to cross the street.


 

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2965 on: December 27, 2017, 07:52:48 PM »
Bloomberg anti-EV ? Looked to me more like an illustration of the problem the USA automobile industry has at the moment - the Trump effect? In Europe the decision is made - EV all the way. California ? Ditto.
The mid-west?  We will see. For a supplier it is a case of get it wrong and goodbye.

Quite right. 

The world is changing.  The non-EV folks I talk to are no longer dismissive of EVs; they are curious, and I am sure they would consider one when they come across one that meets their needs.  The Bloomberg article is likely a sop to those (car dealers, etc.) whose current job doesn’t allow them to believe EVs can succeed.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2966 on: December 27, 2017, 08:03:00 PM »
...
... Add some autonomous on demand vehicles for us who live in the countryside. We better hurry up, though.

Elon Musk predicts that anyone with a Tesla (yes, even in the countryside :) ) will be able to make their car into an “autonomous on demand vehicle.”   A big rural municipal investment should not be required.

Quote
You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost. This dramatically lowers the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5% to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a car which is not.

In cities where demand exceeds the supply of customer-owned cars, Tesla will operate its own fleet, ensuring you can always hail a ride from us no matter where you are.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2967 on: December 27, 2017, 10:19:05 PM »
Found this EV mention in an Investing.Com article summing the oil market of 2017. It's kind of negative but the fact that it's mentioned in such an article is significant:
Quote
3. Electric vehicles were a top story this year. Several countries issued mandates designed to decrease the sale of conventional, gasoline burning vehicles and compel their populations to purchase electric vehicles instead. Major car manufacturers, like Volvo (OTC:VLVLY) and Toyota (NYSE:TM) made significant commitments to producing new electric vehicle models. At the same time, EV car company Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) suffered setbacks with the rollout of its Model 3 “EV for the masses” car.

Despite optimistic forecasts that predict much higher rates of electric vehicle adoption, the future of electric vehicles is unclear. Problems are already emerging with India’s EV mandate and consumers are learning about the social and environmental cost of lithium mining and battery waste. Unless we see a major technological breakthrough, most car buyers in 2018 will find electric vehicles are not worth the cost.
https://www.investing.com/analysis/top-5-oil-market-events-of-2017-and-what-to-expect-in-2018-200275960

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2968 on: December 28, 2017, 12:38:36 AM »
Found this EV mention in an Investing.Com article summing the oil market of 2017. It's kind of negative but the fact that it's mentioned in such an article is significant:  ...

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2969 on: December 28, 2017, 12:40:55 AM »
China extends its electric car rebate to 2020 in attempt to secure EV adoption lead
Quote
After announcing the implementation of its zero-emission vehicle mandate, which will start in 2019, China now has also agreed to extend its electric car rebate until the end of the decade.

Reuters reported:

“The finance ministry said in a statement on Wednesday the tax exemption, which was set to expire at the end of this year, will run from Jan. 1, 2018 until Dec. 31, 2020 for electric, plug-in petrol-electric hybrid and fuel-cell powered vehicles.”

The rebate is worth 10% of the value of electric and plug-in vehicles, which can be worth up to $10,000. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/12/27/china-extends-electric-car-rebate-to-2020-securing-ev-adoption-lead/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2970 on: December 28, 2017, 12:54:38 AM »
Quote
Unless we see a major technological breakthrough, most car buyers in 2018 will find electric vehicles are not worth the cost.

Clueless author.

We need no breakthrough.  Only need is larger manufacturing volume (in particular battery cells) to bring down the cost of EVs so that they will cost less to purchase than a same-featured ICEV. 

It won't happen in 2018.  But we are on track for hitting manufacturing cost parity by ~2020.

GeoffBeacon

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 394
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2971 on: December 28, 2017, 12:05:22 PM »
Not quite Pedestrian Apartheid but getting there. The Evening Standard reports


Quote
Sadiq Khan has unveiled plans to ban car parking spaces from new London homes and office blocks in an attempt to cut car use in the capital.

The London Mayor said he wants to see a reduction in road congestion and air pollution as part of his new Transport Strategy.

The Mayor revealed plans to stop residential developments from building parking spaces and new offices from installing commuter or visitor parking.
Il faut cultiver notre cité-jardin
The Sustainable Plotlands Association

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2972 on: December 28, 2017, 01:54:20 PM »
Another outside take on EVs (from an economic blogger who is essentially a denier):
Quote
Electric vehicles are the wave of the future even if battery technology is not where it needs to be at present. While Elon Musk and the car makers have a spotlight on batteries, what about other components in the cars?
...
Once battery technology catches up with the needs of urban drivers, gasoline powered vehicles will quickly vanish.

Meanwhile, in ways most have not yet begun to think about, cars are undergoing a historical transformation.
https://www.themaven.net/mishtalk/economics/3m-dupont-ppg-corning-new-entrants-in-car-electrification-race-lLi8EZaExU6ZCDMYbFCk1g

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3511
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 899
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2973 on: December 28, 2017, 03:05:21 PM »
I think they are right in that there is no mass market  for vehicles that happen to be electric. There is not enough people that will buy a car just because they are electric. The opposite is also true. There is not enough people that will buy a vehicle just because they are ICEV.

Most people buy whatever meets their needs. I think most people weights factors like cost, performance, safety, handling, luxuries, and anything else they can imagine and purchase whatever they like. There is a huge market for good vehicles regardless of how the motors get their power.

EVs can compete and in some cases significantly outperform ICEVs. The most obvious example is instant torque. Tesla took advantage of the instant torque that electric motors provide to create cars that outperform almost anything on the road. The physics of the ICE simply can't create instant torque. In that segment of the market ICEs can't compete with EVs.

There are other ways where EV's have an advantage. Placing the batteries under the car lowers the center of gravity of the car provides a handling advantage. Regenerative breaking, instant available energy, simplicity of design are other categories that if exploited can provide large markets for for vehicles that happen to be electric.

As battery and other related technologies improve, cost becomes an advantage instead of a disadvantage. Eventually ICE's won't be competitive against EV's except on niche markets, for example the few people that must have engine noise even if the EV performs better than the ICEV.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20375
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2974 on: December 28, 2017, 03:11:32 PM »
A less obvious advantage of EVs is reduced reaction time in emergencies. Mind you, not wearing a seat belt when an EV slams on the brakes near as dammit instantly could be very painful.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2975 on: December 28, 2017, 03:31:05 PM »
Those who think there is no demand for EVs might want to look at the hundreds of thousands who have put down a $1,000 deposit in order to gain a place on the Tesla 3 waiting list.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4606
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 879
  • Likes Given: 826
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2976 on: December 28, 2017, 06:02:15 PM »
...
Most people buy whatever meets their needs. I think most people weights factors like cost, performance, safety, handling, luxuries, and anything else they can imagine and purchase whatever they like. There is a huge market for good vehicles regardless of how the motors get their power.
...
I think:  "Most people weigh factors like cost, performance, safety, handling, luxuries, and anything else they can imagine" and then "purchase what they like." [not exact quotes] We only think those first 4 items have a strong influence.  Tradition ('Have to have a truck) and politics (Is it American?') are huge factors.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2977 on: December 28, 2017, 06:55:27 PM »
Shenzhen shows the world how it’s done, electrifies all public transit with massive fleet of 16,000+ electric buses
Quote
Electric buses are becoming increasingly popular with transit fleets around the world, but no more than in Shenzhen, China.  The megacity has been building a large fleet of electric buses for years now, but this week it announced that it completely electrified its fleet with more than 16,000 electric buses.

Shenzhen already had the world’s biggest electric bus fleet for a while and it has been expecting to reach its full electric fleet update in 2018, but it ended reaching its goal ahead of time.

The city’s transport commission made the announcement yesterday (via Han Ximin EyeShenzhen).  They now have 16,359 electric buses in operation around the city of 12 million people.

In order to achieve this goal, they invested hundreds of millions more than their usual fleet update to purchase a variety of different electric buses and charging stations.  The city has built 8,000 charge points at 510 bus charging stations in order to be able to charge roughly half the fleet at any given time.

They estimate that the fleet is saving 345,000 tons of fuel per year and it is reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 1.35 million tons. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/12/28/shenzhen-electrifies-entire-public-transit-fleet-electric-buses/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2978 on: December 28, 2017, 07:10:47 PM »
...
  Tradition ('Have to have a truck) and politics (Is it American?') are huge factors.

For a significant number of Americans, this is exactly right.  But when their peers start showing up to watch NASCAR races in their Tesla, or come to a remote jobsite with an electric truck that can power their electric tools... I’m pretty sure the dynamic will change.  You can’t underestimate the forces of utility and coolness factor in flipping the switch. 
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4606
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 879
  • Likes Given: 826
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2979 on: December 28, 2017, 09:37:53 PM »
I so agree.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2980 on: December 29, 2017, 06:25:35 AM »
Quote
Tradition ('Have to have a truck) and politics (Is it American?') are huge factors.

US buyers go through phases.  One doesn't have to go back too many years to find a time when trucks were for hicks (and people who legitimately needed one).  The pickup phase will likely end before long.  Partially driven by how un-pickup like most trucks have become.  They're basically four door sedans with no lid over the boot.

Has to be American?  Our streets are full of Japanese and German cars.  And we're seeing a lot more Korean.  When in France I was surprised at how many cars were of French origin.  And then when I moved on the Spain the brands switched. 

The very fast acceleration of EVs (the ones set up to take off like a rocket) is likely to get a lot of younger guys wanting one.  I had three conversations today with people who brought up the EV topic.  including the tow truck taking me to town, the driver was talking about maybe buying a used Leaf to commute to work. 

GeoffBeacon

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 394
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2981 on: December 29, 2017, 01:14:24 PM »
I rode my bike round the backstreets and outskirts of York yesterday and noticed how many places were crowded with cars

The EPA gives the CO2 emissions for the average (US) car as 4.7 tonnes of CO2 per year. With 1.27 US citizens per car, that averages 3.7 tonnes CO2e each. Let's assume that cars will be zero carbon in 2050. A linear decline in CO2 emissions would mean 59 tonnes of CO2 emitted per US citizen.  (3.7*32/2 = 59).

59 tonnes per person is unacceptable. (But what is?) It's even worse if the rest of the world (especially China) aspires to a US lifestyle. As my photo shows the UK has been trending that way.

Can the current switch to EVs do the job quickly enough? The "Official source for fuel economy information" gives Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Electric and Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles as about 40% of the average US car. That's a rough guess but I tried a few models. However some zip codes gave much better results - a Ford Focus Electric in Rochester, NY, has 17% of the in-use emissions of the average US car.

To keep within the (unacceptable?) 59 tonnes of CO2 until 2050 emissions must fall by just over 3% of today's emissions each year. Looking at recent EPA figures, that seems hard to achieve.

I doubt that even the linear decline can be achieved by technology improvements alone - distances traveled must shrink too. Perhaps I'm wrong. I warm to the "smaller robovehicle" idea from Bob Wallace but it's not enough. We must cut the distances we travel by car too.



« Last Edit: December 29, 2017, 02:12:29 PM by GeoffBeacon »
Il faut cultiver notre cité-jardin
The Sustainable Plotlands Association

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 602
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2982 on: December 29, 2017, 04:38:54 PM »
Thanks for those calculations, Geoff.

I don't know if you noticed this link above, but the first lecture by K. Anderson ends with a particularly hard hitting moral plea to turn away from air travel, so I thought you might be interesting. The lecture starts at 20 minutes and the air travel bit is around the 50 minute mark.

http://www.kva.se/sv/kalendarium/the-gordon-goodman-memorial-lecture-2017
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2983 on: December 29, 2017, 04:41:32 PM »
I rode my bike round the backstreets and outskirts of York yesterday and noticed how many places were crowded with cars
...

I bet it would only requre 5 or 6 fully autonomous vehicles to take the place of all those in your photo.  Switching from ICE to EV is not the only trend to consider — soon, the number of people who want to own any kind of car will decline. :)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2984 on: December 29, 2017, 04:56:41 PM »
Quote
soon, the number of people who want to own any kind of car will decline. :)

And likely sooner than people think.  Slowly at first....but gaining steam.  And at first it will be for 2nd or 3rd cars in a family (that is the "low hanging fruit").....but eventually even the primary car may be a casualty, certainly in metro areas.....and where the family size is small.

One bite at a time......
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4606
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 879
  • Likes Given: 826
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2985 on: December 29, 2017, 05:52:32 PM »
...
Has to be American?  ...
That was just an example.  My wife, when replacing a Prius a couple years ago, would look at nothing but Priuses (I mean Prii!)

[I still drive our 2002 Prius.]
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2986 on: December 29, 2017, 06:26:17 PM »
"I rode my bike round the backstreets and outskirts of York yesterday and noticed how many places were crowded with cars"

That is a scene which should fade away over the next 15 years.  To a great extent those cars won't be there because they will have been replaced with robotaxis.  And even the people who do chose to own their own car won't need to park it right outside their door.  The car can take itself off to a parking lot/garage.

That frees up street space for a good bike lane.

Alexander555

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2503
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 185
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2987 on: December 29, 2017, 06:45:09 PM »
...
Has to be American?  ...
That was just an example.  My wife, when replacing a Prius a couple years ago, would look at nothing but Priuses (I mean Prii!)

[I still drive our 2002 Prius.]

That prius, that's not a lithium battery ? What i want to ask. Somebody that lives close to me, he has a Tesla. One of the big models. And when he drives by, he makes some kind of zooming noise. Sounds a little bit futuristic. Is that the battery that you hear, or is it the electrical engine ? I payed some attention to a Nissan Leaf, but there i don't hear the same noise. Or is it maybe the more powerfull battery from the Tesla. Or maybe, when he leaves his home, the Tesla still has a slow speed. Anyway, in the beginning, it was a little bit a funny sound. But when you start thinking about it, than it gets a little bit creepy. If it's the battery that is brewing : ) . So makes the Prius the same zooming sound, or is it related to the size or something else ?

ghoti

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 767
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2988 on: December 29, 2017, 06:53:55 PM »
Quote
Is that the battery that you hear, or is it the electrical engine
It is the electric motors. You definitely hear it inside the Leaf and it is my favourite sound made by my Prius C.

Alexander555

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2503
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 185
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2989 on: December 29, 2017, 06:56:39 PM »
Quote
Is that the battery that you hear, or is it the electrical engine
It is the electric motors. You definitely hear it inside the Leaf and it is my favourite sound made by my Prius C.

In that case it sounds good.

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2990 on: December 29, 2017, 07:27:36 PM »
The Prius uses NiMH, which was the better choice for the hybrid (it’s better at cycling than most other chemistries).

But batteries don’t generally make noise — electric motors do.

The old metro cars in Montreal made a distinctive series of three tones in the first few seconds when the motors were starting up. The new cars don’t, but it’s such a well-known sound that they chose to play the same three tones over the speakers to indicate the doors are closing.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2991 on: December 29, 2017, 07:56:33 PM »
You're also going to hear tire noise and perhaps a little wind noise.  But I suspect most of what you hear is the electric motor(s).

Alexander555

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2503
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 185
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2992 on: December 29, 2017, 08:20:58 PM »
The Prius uses NiMH, which was the better choice for the hybrid (it’s better at cycling than most other chemistries).

But batteries don’t generally make noise — electric motors do.

The old metro cars in Montreal made a distinctive series of three tones in the first few seconds when the motors were starting up. The new cars don’t, but it’s such a well-known sound that they chose to play the same three tones over the speakers to indicate the doors are closing.

That's what i was thinking. But i did'nt knew it for sure. Because that Tesla has a big battery, maybe 30 % of the cars weight.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2993 on: December 29, 2017, 09:24:59 PM »
Quote
Tesla has a big battery, maybe 30 % of the cars weight.

Yes, but that's not really a problem.  Much of the energy used to put the battery in motion is recovered via regenerative braking.  The largest energy consumption for EVs is overcoming wind resistance.

PHEVs make sense as long as batteries are expensive.  But we reach a price level for batteries where it becomes less expensive to manufacture a long range EV than a PHEV.  And that takes us totally off petroleum.


GeoffBeacon

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 394
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2994 on: December 30, 2017, 02:01:06 PM »
Thanks for those calculations, Geoff.

I don't know if you noticed this link above, but the first lecture by K. Anderson ends with a particularly hard hitting moral plea to turn away from air travel, so I thought you might be interesting. The lecture starts at 20 minutes and the air travel bit is around the 50 minute mark.

http://www.kva.se/sv/kalendarium/the-gordon-goodman-memorial-lecture-2017

Thanks wili

The Gordon Goodman Memorial Lecture

I have now listened to over 2 hours of that session. Kevin Andersen was excellent - the best I've seen him do.  I'll report some of the many points on other threads.

Air travel

On air travel he said "with the brutal logic of carbon budgets"

Quote
Every tonne of CO2 from our flying
Is a tonne of CO2 poorer communities can't emit

Note:
Quote
Faustian bargain
That reminded me of a background worry about stopping air travel. I looked up Nadine Unger again and found two excellent YouTube videos. A and that will be more detailed - when I properly view it.

Points from the session

The whole session was alot to remember. A transcript would be great. I might try IBM's Watson, which I've found modestly useful in converting speech to text. The main theme of Kevin's lecture was that we shouldn't rely on Negative Emission Technologies like BECCS but there are a few points possibly relevant to this thread.

Quote
1) Kevin estimated that the developed nations should cut carbon emissions at a rate of greater than 13% a year.

2) Industrial/wealthy nations should power down energy demand by between 40% and 70% within about 10 years.

3) In the panel discussion, the three other panelists avoided a comment from the audience about degrowth. Kevin something like  we should not talk of growth or degrowth but we should talk of post-growth. (That sounded to me like avoiding the question.)

4)Teresa Anderson from ActionAid International made some powerful points about how vulnerable people were being affected by climat change.

5)Eva Blixt, of the Swedish steel producers’ association said Swedish steel was contemplating going carbon free by using hydrogen. (It took me a while for the penny to drop: Hydrogen can be used to reduce iron ore to iron - no coal needed.)

6) This prompted Kevin to say that we should be building lots of renewable energy (like off-shore wind) so that we have over capacity to cope with the lulls but use the spare energy to generate hydrogen.

Weight of EVs

I think Kevin made a comment about the weight cars like of a Chevy Volt - something like "a tonne of carry carrying 100kg of person". This raises the problem of lithium batteries in transportation where weight adds to global emissions and local pollution.

For globally relevant emissions, is it the extra weight of the batteries that makes the emissions from the hybrid Prius 15% less than the Volt, when powered by electricity with thea verage US carbon rating - according to FuelEconomy.gov?

For local PM2.5 emissions, weight is a problem for heavy cars as pointed out by Timmers and Achten in Non-exhaust PM emissions from electric vehicles
Quote
However, this literature review suggests that electric vehicles may not reduce levels of PM as much as expected, because of their relatively high weight. By analysing the existing literature on non-exhaust emissions of different vehicle categories, this review found that there is a positive relationship between weight and non-exhaust PM emission factors.

Non-exhaust PM emission factors refer to emissions from brake linings, tire wear and road surface emissions.

Hydrogen hybrids

Could hydrogen hybrid electric cars be better?  Mercedes have a heavy looking one coming out. see Mercedes wants to sell a plug-in hybrid that runs on hydrogen.

I'd like to see one that weighs much much less, which travels much slower but to get to Anderson's 13% a year reduction then we must travel less too.

Il faut cultiver notre cité-jardin
The Sustainable Plotlands Association

GeoffBeacon

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 394
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 21
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2995 on: December 30, 2017, 02:57:20 PM »
I should have mentioned the possibility of Lighter Batteries

Lighter Batteries May Prove The Tipping Point For Electric Vehicles
Il faut cultiver notre cité-jardin
The Sustainable Plotlands Association

Paddy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1026
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 153
  • Likes Given: 151
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2996 on: December 30, 2017, 03:00:26 PM »
It's possible that despite all the other problems with Brexit, it may be marginally helpful for the planet. Overall new car registrations in the UK in Jan to Nov 2017 are down 5% on the year before, from 2.51m to 2.39m, even though alternative fuel vehicle sales are up 34%, from 83k to 111k: https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/
« Last Edit: December 30, 2017, 03:30:37 PM by Paddy »

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2997 on: December 30, 2017, 03:47:33 PM »
RE the 5% drop in vehicle registrations in Britain:  One of the things I will be looking for...is a "transition period" where potential car buyers hold off on purchasing a new car....because they want to buy an EV because they see where the market is going...but they also see the cost of EV's dropping...so they may try to stretch the length of time they hold onto their current car for two or three more years before they pull the trigger.

I don't know if we are starting to get to that point YET... but "buyer psychology" will be something to watch during this transition.

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25753
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2998 on: December 31, 2017, 06:50:47 PM »
Converting big diesel trucks to hybrid and all-electric.

Efficient Drivetrains’ PowerDrive 8000 electrification kit for Class 8 trucks
Quote
...
The all-electric version, PowerDrive 8000EV, offers a range of over 100 miles, and is designed for short-range applications such as logistics and port drayage. The plug-in hybrid version delivers 35 miles of electric range, and is suited for longer-haul logistics and freight applications. OEMs can also further customize their solutions with EDI’s Electric Power Export (Power2E) option, which adds the capability to export power directly from the vehicle for use in disaster recovery, tool operation and V2G applications.

“The heavy-duty trucking industry is experiencing a sea change, largely driven by an urgent need to reduce emissions,” said CEO Joerg Ferchau. “Worldwide, our most populated cities are experiencing significantly diminished air quality as a result of heavy-duty goods movement. The passenger car industry has experienced a significant change, but heavy-duty trucks continue to represent the largest producers of emissions. Although heavy-duty applications are the most technically challenging, they are also the highest priority for reducing emissions, and improving air quality today.”
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/efficient-drivetrains-powerdrive-8000-electrification-kit-for-class-8-trucks/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

ghoti

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 767
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #2999 on: December 31, 2017, 11:15:39 PM »
January 1, 2018 China is banning production of 553 models of cars because they exceed fuel consumption limits. Apparently these cars met the Euro 4 standard.

https://insideevs.com/china-ban-553-gas-cars-starting-tomorrow/

Meanwhile here in Canada we have a plan to create a plan to introduce a "clean fuel standard" by 2020 which might reduce the fossil component of fuel by 15% by 2025. :(