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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3050 on: January 09, 2018, 05:40:57 PM »
When the future of your employment requires that you not believe the truth:

A majority of auto executives still think battery electric cars will fail, survey says
Quote
Research firm KPMG has released its annual automotive executive survey and it’s even more depressing than we could have imagined.

According to the survey, a majority of auto executives still think that battery electric cars will fail.

Despite virtually all major automaker claiming they believe that the future of the industry is electric, KPMG says that “more than half (54%) of global auto executives say they believe these vehicles will fail commercially due to infrastructure challenges while 60 percent say excessive recharging times will do them in.”

According to the survey, which polled nearly 1,000 executives (including 90 in the United States), more than three-quarters of executives think that fuel cell hydrogen vehicles will be the future. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/01/08/auto-executives-battery-electric-cars-fail-survey/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3051 on: January 09, 2018, 05:51:38 PM »
“The Japanese automaker was quick to market with the Leaf launching in 2010. It’s not the best-selling all-electric car today, but it has accumulated a record number of deliveries over the years.”

Nissan delivers its 300,000th Leaf electric car
https://electrek.co/2018/01/08/nissan-delivers-its-300000th-leaf-electric-car/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3052 on: January 09, 2018, 07:06:38 PM »
Food for thought.
https://twitter.com/tjukanov/status/949998992284422144
Quote
2018 remake of my accessibility visualization. Rush hour travel times from my home to everywhere in Helsinki region with different modes of transport:
- Pink = Car
- Yellow = Public transportation
- Green = Bike

Watching how much faster cars reach their destinations leads me to believe that once we have robotaxis city transit buses may largely disappear.  It's all the stops that buses make.

Smaller vehicles, from single occupant to perhaps a dozen passengers, may be the replacement.  If there are multiple people starting from about the same place and traveling to roughly the same place they could be served by a multi-passenger vehicle.

More vehicles on the road.  But if on street parking disappears and self-driving cars move faster and more efficiently then we may not experience more crowded roads.

eta:  Watch the video.  Notice how quickly the cars (pink) disappear?  Faster transportation clears the roads and makes room for other vehicles.

Alexander555

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3053 on: January 09, 2018, 07:28:52 PM »
Over here in August, they start operating 5 electrical  ships that can carry 24 containers . And 6 ships that can carry 240 containers. Mainly to bring the containers further inland from the ports. To keep trucks from the roads. We have a big network of channels.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3054 on: January 09, 2018, 09:46:58 PM »
A $52,000 plug-in electric pickup truck w/ range extender receives over 5,000 fleet orders, opens reservation to the public
Quote
Ohio-based Workhorse is trying to be the first to market with a plug-in hybrid electric pickup truck.

The company claims to have accumulated over 5,300 orders for its truck since unveiling it last year and now it opens reservations to the public.
Workhorse’s W-15 is equipped with a unique hybrid powertrain technology.

They say it will get up to 80 miles on all-electric mode thanks to a very large 60 kWh battery pack (for a PHEV) – though they say that they are software-locking 20 kWh in capacity to reduce battery degradation.

There are two schools of thoughts on the matter. Some think it’s a waste of capacity and that they should let owners access the energy when needed, and others like not to have to worry about the battery losing capacity against the advertised range after a few years.

But the large battery pack is also useful to power tools on location for constructions workers and other hobbyists – with a 7.2 kW power system that allows owners to plug-in anything. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/01/09/workhorse-opens-reservation-electric-pickup-truck/
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numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3055 on: January 09, 2018, 10:48:37 PM »
Over here in August, they start operating 5 electrical  ships that can carry 24 containers . And 6 ships that can carry 240 containers. Mainly to bring the containers further inland from the ports. To keep trucks from the roads. We have a big network of channels.

Excellent! Where is "here"? Do you have a link to share?

(PS: you probably mean "canals" instead of "channels")

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3056 on: January 10, 2018, 04:00:44 AM »
And it works as a mobile generator, judging by the guy powering a circular saw with his truck. I like that truck.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Alexander555

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3057 on: January 10, 2018, 11:26:05 AM »
Over here in August, they start operating 5 electrical  ships that can carry 24 containers . And 6 ships that can carry 240 containers. Mainly to bring the containers further inland from the ports. To keep trucks from the roads. We have a big network of channels.

Excellent! Where is "here"? Do you have a link to share?

(PS: you probably mean "canals" instead of "channels")

I don't have a link, it was in a newspaper. I will post a picture as soon as they start to operate. They were talking about 7000 of these ships in Europe. I think that's all of them together, but i'm not sure of it. In the canals there is no current. So maybe they need stronger ones for the rivers. But i don't know it for sure. These are for the canals.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3058 on: January 10, 2018, 08:18:08 PM »
Here we go again:

U.S. law firm accuses Ford of rigging trucks to cheat emission tests
Quote
Jan 10 (Reuters) - A U.S. law firm accused Ford Motor Co of rigging its F-250 and F-350 Super Duty trucks with emissions-cheating devices to ensure they passed tests, according to a lawsuit filed on Wednesday.

The automaker manipulated the emissions system in violation of federal requirements and the affected trucks released twice the legal limits of emissions during normal driving, according to the lawsuit filed by Hagens Berman(graphic).

The lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Michigan, also names German auto supplier Robert Bosch GmbH as a defendant.
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-law-firm-accuses-ford-of-rigging-trucks-to-cheat-emission-tests-20180110-00802
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Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3059 on: January 10, 2018, 08:48:55 PM »
Quote
U.S. law firm accuses Ford of rigging trucks to cheat emission tests

And yet...some people wonder why we NEED to have businesses regulated....
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3060 on: January 10, 2018, 08:49:26 PM »
With focus on China and reducing battery costs at scale, GM intends to be profitable on EVs by 2021

...but only in China, while they keep a “traditional focus in North America on trucks, sport utility vehicles and cars fueled with petroleum.”  :-\

https://electrek.co/2018/01/09/gm-evs-china-profits/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3061 on: January 10, 2018, 09:03:11 PM »
Over here in August, they start operating 5 electrical  ships that can carry 24 containers . And 6 ships that can carry 240 containers. Mainly to bring the containers further inland from the ports. To keep trucks from the roads. We have a big network of channels.

Excellent! Where is "here"? Do you have a link to share?

(PS: you probably mean "canals" instead of "channels")

I don't have a link, it was in a newspaper. I will post a picture as soon as they start to operate. They were talking about 7000 of these ships in Europe. I think that's all of them together, but i'm not sure of it. In the canals there is no current. So maybe they need stronger ones for the rivers. But i don't know it for sure. These are for the canals.

If this is not the ship you are referring to, perhaps it is similar?

A new all-electric and autonomous cargo ship is planned for operation in 2018
https://electrek.co/2017/05/11/all-electric-autonomous-cargo-ship/
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Alexander555

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3062 on: January 10, 2018, 09:28:57 PM »
I have a link now, but it's not english. And they are not talking about autonomous ships. The small ones have a battery the size of a container, and can operate for 15 hours. The big ones have 4 of these batteries and can operate for 35 hours. And it takes 4 hours to charge the battery.

http://www.engineeringnet.be/belgie/detail_belgie.asp?Id=19947&category=nieuws&titel=Wereldprimeur:%20elektrische%20binnenvaartschepen%20tussen%20Nederland%20en%20België

Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3063 on: January 10, 2018, 09:33:58 PM »
A new all-electric and autonomous cargo ship is planned for operation in 2018
https://electrek.co/2017/05/11/all-electric-autonomous-cargo-ship/
A bit more about that link. Kongsberg is so much more than just a maritime engineering firm.
Primarily a city in Norway that exists because of silver mining. The Kongsberg Group is a continuation of Kongsberg Weapons Factory:
https://www.kongsberg.com/
Also a bunch of other companies there, like Kongsberg Automotive etc.
Nice little place, with all the technology Norway can muster. I've worked there, but not within the Kongsberg group, sorry for the OT...
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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3064 on: January 10, 2018, 09:35:22 PM »
I have a link now, but it's not english. And they are not talking about autonomous ships. The small ones have a battery the size of a container, and can operate for 15 hours. The big ones have 4 of these batteries and can operate for 35 hours. And it takes 4 hours to charge the battery.

http://www.engineeringnet.be/belgie/detail_belgie.asp?Id=19947&category=nieuws&titel=Wereldprimeur:%20elektrische%20binnenvaartschepen%20tussen%20Nederland%20en%20België
Thanks
Having the batteries mounted in shipping containers so that they can be changed, and charged later makes lots of sense,
Auto translate worked just fine.
Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3065 on: January 10, 2018, 09:37:26 PM »
I have a link now, but it's not english. And they are not talking about autonomous ships. The small ones have a battery the size of a container, and can operate for 15 hours. The big ones have 4 of these batteries and can operate for 35 hours. And it takes 4 hours to charge the battery.

http://www.engineeringnet.be/belgie/detail_belgie.asp?Id=19947&category=nieuws&titel=Wereldprimeur:%20elektrische%20binnenvaartschepen%20tussen%20Nederland%20en%20België

Ships are an ideal place to use battery swapping.  Ports are already set up to lift shipping containers in and out of ships and move them around. 

A four hour charge wouldn't mean the ship sitting around for four hours waiting to charge.  Swap batteries in a few minutes and get underway.

crandles

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3066 on: January 11, 2018, 02:17:48 AM »

Ships are an ideal place to use battery swapping.  Ports are already set up to lift shipping containers in and out of ships and move them around. 

A four hour charge wouldn't mean the ship sitting around for four hours waiting to charge.  Swap batteries in a few minutes and get underway.

How long are ships usually in port for unloading and loading? But probably easier not to run the electrics to all the ship berths, (unless building port from scratch).

numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3067 on: January 11, 2018, 05:14:31 AM »
Montreal is buying 300 new hybrid buses, a significant growth in its bus fleet, in hopes of getting more people out of cars.

I’m disappointed the call for proposals specified hybrid buses, not electric. Hopefully they see the light. Electricity is particularly cheap here, so I bet bus manufacturers could get a lower cost of ownership from battery-powered buses than from hybrid.

I haven’t read the call. If it precludes battery-electric, I expect lawsuits.

ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3068 on: January 11, 2018, 08:32:52 PM »
Montreal is buying 300 new hybrid buses, a significant growth in its bus fleet, in hopes of getting more people out of cars.

I’m disappointed the call for proposals specified hybrid buses, not electric. Hopefully they see the light. Electricity is particularly cheap here, so I bet bus manufacturers could get a lower cost of ownership from battery-powered buses than from hybrid.

I haven’t read the call. If it precludes battery-electric, I expect lawsuits.
Ottawa is getting rid of their (failed experiment) Orion hybrid buses. They were purchased with a complete lack of understanding about how they can save fuel - they were put into use on high speed routes with few stops. They then complained there wasn't any fuel savings and were more difficult to maintain.

Now we suffer the consequences of being afraid to purchase anything remotely "innovative".

numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3069 on: January 11, 2018, 08:56:28 PM »
That's not the problem here. Montreal has some battery-electric buses already, and is buying a few more:
http://www.stm.info/en/press/press-releases/2017/electrification--stm-picks-up-the-pace-and-looks-to-buy-40-electric-buses

It's already got the goal of eliminating all pure-diesel buses with hybrids:
http://www.stm.info/en/about/major_projects/bus-network-electrification/hybrid-buses

I'm just disappointed that when the new leadership decided to expand the bus network (which is good!) that they reached for hybrid buses rather than electric.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3070 on: January 11, 2018, 09:17:41 PM »
Quote
Now we suffer the consequences of being afraid to purchase anything remotely "innovative".

Collect information about other cities making the transition to battery powered buses.  Send the information to people in decision making positions. Make sure that someone inside the government is learning about how electric buses are working out for other cities.

Consider setting a Google Alert for 'electric bus', 'battery bus' or whatever delivers the info. 

ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3071 on: January 11, 2018, 10:34:31 PM »
Quote
Now we suffer the consequences of being afraid to purchase anything remotely "innovative".

Collect information about other cities making the transition to battery powered buses.  Send the information to people in decision making positions. Make sure that someone inside the government is learning about how electric buses are working out for other cities.

Consider setting a Google Alert for 'electric bus', 'battery bus' or whatever delivers the info.
They are well aware here but are very slow to accept change. It took over 20 years of fighting to get light rail going here. We'll have 12.5km of LRT starting  sometime in 2018. The mayor and environment minister keep repeating it will eliminate 150 diesel buses while neglecting to mention the new purchase of 70 diesel buses this year.

Problem is they still get large subsidies for diesel buses.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3072 on: January 12, 2018, 02:30:54 AM »
Who is subsidizing diesel buses?


ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3073 on: January 12, 2018, 04:07:45 AM »
Who is subsidizing diesel buses?
All levels of government here. Public transit is considered "green" even when it burns oil.

I should have noted in the previous post that this mayor replaced one who canceled the previous light rail construction contract. So despite my complaints he is a relative improvement.

numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3074 on: January 12, 2018, 04:46:22 AM »
A diesel bus is way better than the equivalent fleet of gasoline powered cars. The hybrid buses in Montreal are only reducing by 30% compared to pure diesel.


Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3075 on: January 12, 2018, 07:56:36 PM »

Quote
Today, GM unveiled the first image of its upcoming autonomous fourth-generation Bolt EV-based vehicle – the “first without a steering wheel or pedal.”

The automaker also says that it filed a petition asking the DOT permission to deploy the vehicle as soon as next year.

https://electrek.co/2018/01/12/gm-unveils-autonomous-bolt-ev-without-steering-wheel-pedal/

This is the turning point. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3076 on: January 12, 2018, 09:55:41 PM »

Quote
Today, GM unveiled the first image of its upcoming autonomous fourth-generation Bolt EV-based vehicle – the “first without a steering wheel or pedal.”

The automaker also says that it filed a petition asking the DOT permission to deploy the vehicle as soon as next year.

https://electrek.co/2018/01/12/gm-unveils-autonomous-bolt-ev-without-steering-wheel-pedal/

This is the turning point.

GM seems to be moving forward with autonomous driving by limiting the roads the car will drive on, e.g. “Anywhere in San Francisco.”  The SuperCruise driver-assist software in their Cadillac only works on (some) highways, so I bet the ride-share app works by geo-fencing tricky spots in SF the car simply won’t go.

This can certainly work for many AV applications!  Tesla is taking a different approach, using AI to train their cars (via a central brain and a super-computer in each car) to deal with thousands of situations experienced every day by its fleet — and by incorporating an ultra-precise navigation system that should be pushed out to the fleet soon.  But it’s taking longer than expected.

Good to see different approaches being tried, with differing equipment and different timelines.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3077 on: January 12, 2018, 10:11:26 PM »
I have a link now, but it's not english. And they are not talking about autonomous ships. The small ones have a battery the size of a container, and can operate for 15 hours. The big ones have 4 of these batteries and can operate for 35 hours. And it takes 4 hours to charge the battery.

http://www.engineeringnet.be/belgie/detail_belgie.asp?Id=19947&category=nieuws&titel=Wereldprimeur:%20elektrische%20binnenvaartschepen%20tussen%20Nederland%20en%20België

The illustration looks like the one referenced here:

Large ‘Tesla ships’ all-electric container barges are launching this autumn
Quote
The Dutch company Port-Liner is building two giant all-electric barges dubbed the ‘Tesla ships‘. The company announced that the vessels will be ready by this autumn and will be inaugurated by sailing the Wilhelmina canal in the Netherlands.

The 100 million-euro project supported by a €7m subsidy from the European Union is expected to have a significant impact on local transport between the ports of Amsterdam, Antwerp, and Rotterdam.
...

The battery-powered barges... are capable of carrying 280 containers.   The first 6 barges are expected to remove 23,000 trucks from the roads annually in the Netherlands and replace them with zero-emission transport.

Port-Liner is developing its own vessels, but they developed a battery pack technology that houses the batteries inside a container.  Meegen says that it could allow them to retrofit existing barges:

“This allows us to retrofit barges already in operation, which is a big boost for the industry’s green energy credentials.  The containers are charged onshore by carbon-free energy provider Eneco, which sources solar power, windmills and renewables.”

The first vessels will complete their maiden voyage later this year. ...
  https://electrek.co/2018/01/12/large-tesla-ships-all-electric-barges/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3078 on: January 12, 2018, 10:31:15 PM »

Quote
Today, GM unveiled the first image of its upcoming autonomous fourth-generation Bolt EV-based vehicle – the “first without a steering wheel or pedal.”

The automaker also says that it filed a petition asking the DOT permission to deploy the vehicle as soon as next year.

https://electrek.co/2018/01/12/gm-unveils-autonomous-bolt-ev-without-steering-wheel-pedal/

This is the turning point.

GM seems to be moving forward with autonomous driving by limiting the roads the car will drive on, e.g. “Anywhere in San Francisco.”  The SuperCruise driver-assist software in their Cadillac only works on (some) highways, so I bet the ride-share app works by geo-fencing tricky spots in SF the car simply won’t go.

This can certainly work for many AV applications!  Tesla is taking a different approach, using AI to train their cars (via a central brain and a super-computer in each car) to deal with thousands of situations experienced every day by its fleet — and by incorporating an ultra-precise navigation system that should be pushed out to the fleet soon.  But it’s taking longer than expected.

Good to see different approaches being tried, with differing equipment and different timelines.

GM doesn't have the mapping ability that Tesla has with all its recent and future EVs being data collection machines.  But GM has a very valid approach.  Start by "manually" mapping a few cities and start a robotaxi service in areas where mapping has occurred.

GM has an ownership stake in Lyft so they should be able to find out where the highest use areas are and concentrate on those areas at first.  In the meantime they can map other areas.

Looks like we're off and running. 

I'm hoping that I can use a robotaxi in SF soon.  I've quit trying to go to interesting restaurants because parking is next to impossible in much of the City.  If I could use a 'cheap per mile' robo to get from my hotel to a restaurant that would be great.

ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3079 on: January 12, 2018, 10:58:28 PM »
No more ICE cars sold by 2040, impossible? Erik Fairbairn says, "Easy!". Details in this excellent Fully Charged video:




Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3080 on: January 13, 2018, 01:04:49 AM »
No more ICE cars sold by 2040, impossible? Erik Fairbairn says, "Easy!". Details in this excellent Fully Charged video:
...

Great video!
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #3081 on: January 13, 2018, 03:48:28 AM »
No more ICE cars sold by 2040, impossible? Erik Fairbairn says, "Easy!". Details in this excellent Fully Charged video:
...

Great video!

Absolutely.  Everything he says rings true, except perhaps EVs being as cheap to purchase as ICEVs by 2020.  They may be as cheap to manufacturer but I suspect manufacturers will price them higher as long as they can.

But if GM can get their robotaxis on the road before 2020 then there's going to be a massive shakeout.

Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3082 on: January 13, 2018, 12:53:18 PM »
It's certainly doable by 2030, but I would rather see our leaders set a fixed date for banning ICE sales between 2025-2030. I think that would be more fair to everyone and it would speed up the transition. Norways "goal" is that all new cars sold by 2025 should be zero emission cars. Personally, I don't think hybrids should be considered as EVs. Norway sold 20.9% EVs in 2017 and they are now ~5% of a total of 2.7M cars in Norway. 2017 was the third largest car sales year in history for Norway, only surpassed by 1985 & 1986:
http://www.ofvas.no/bestselgerne-trendene-bilsalget-2017/tredje-storste-bilsalgsaret-i-historien-article775-752.html
Use translate if you wish to read it.
Adding the infographics from the video ghoti posted above.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3083 on: January 13, 2018, 02:39:44 PM »
Sleepy, thanks for the hi-res version of the infographic.

Perhaps “Jeremy Clarkson relents, buys first EV” around 2024 is one of the best examples of an EV tipping point. ;) ;D
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3084 on: January 14, 2018, 01:41:09 AM »
Perhaps “Jeremy Clarkson relents, buys first EV” around 2024 is one of the best examples of an EV tipping point. ;) ;D

Hadn't you heard? Jeremy has relented already!

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/12/jeremy-clarkson-on-a-grand-tour-to-save-the-world/

If you don't believe me here's the undeniable evidence:

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3085 on: January 14, 2018, 04:03:36 AM »
Perhaps “Jeremy Clarkson relents, buys first EV” around 2024 is one of the best examples of an EV tipping point. ;) ;D

Hadn't you heard? Jeremy has relented already!
...

Mugging for the camera is one thing.  (And they still made sure to show an EV running out of charge — unnecessarily.  :-\
But I want to see him paying good money for his own electric car... because he wants to!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3086 on: January 14, 2018, 04:07:59 AM »
Californians showing a fair amount of interest in seeing the all-electric Tesla Model 3.  ;)

Model 3 Has Tesla Store Debut In Los Angeles, Gets Mobbed
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2018/01/13/model-3-has-tesla-store-debut-in-los-angeles-gets-mobbed/

Tesla Model 3 attracts large crowds with first display cars
https://electrek.co/2018/01/13/tesla-model-3-attracts-large-crowds-with-first-display-cars/
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« Reply #3087 on: January 14, 2018, 08:50:22 AM »
But I want to see him paying good money for his own electric car... because he wants to!

If Hammond hadn't badly bent burnt the Concept One maybe Jeremy would have bought one by now? Quoting the great man:

Quote
That Rimac just f***s off. I've never seen anything like that. I've never seen anything move as quickly as that. Not with number plates.

Allegedly James May possesses a BMW i3 of his very own.

Once upon a time when I was charging the REx version of one of those in a UK motorway service station a lady of a certain age came over to me with a big smile on her face. She gleefully explained how her other car was an i3. She had once left a boy racer in a Golf GTI with go faster stripes for dead when some suburban traffic lights turned green.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2018, 01:36:04 PM by Jim Hunt »
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silkman

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3088 on: January 14, 2018, 01:23:40 PM »
Yep

As a man if a certain age, I can confirm that if you put your foot down in an i3, it really goes... but quietly!

Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3089 on: January 14, 2018, 01:37:23 PM »
it really goes... but quietly!

Unless you're in a REx and the motorcycle engine in the boot kicks in!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3090 on: January 14, 2018, 03:06:44 PM »
Californians showing a fair amount of interest in seeing the all-electric Tesla Model 3.  ;)

Model 3 Has Tesla Store Debut In Los Angeles, Gets Mobbed
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brookecrothers/2018/01/13/model-3-has-tesla-store-debut-in-los-angeles-gets-mobbed/

Tesla Model 3 attracts large crowds with first display cars
https://electrek.co/2018/01/13/tesla-model-3-attracts-large-crowds-with-first-display-cars/

What I love most about this is that it shows that there is a lot of interest in electric vehicles, despite the low market penetration to date. Although California is something of a special case because of Tesla (and being, well, California ;)), it indicates the demand is there.  If automakers produced a great EV today, they would have no trouble selling it.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3091 on: January 14, 2018, 03:42:59 PM »

Quote
Today, GM unveiled the first image of its upcoming autonomous fourth-generation Bolt EV-based vehicle – the “first without a steering wheel or pedal.”

The automaker also says that it filed a petition asking the DOT permission to deploy the vehicle as soon as next year.

https://electrek.co/2018/01/12/gm-unveils-autonomous-bolt-ev-without-steering-wheel-pedal/

This is the turning point.

Agreed.  This is really what excites me, even with the challenges and other dynamics that have been posted by others.  I look forward to the day where these types of vehicles dominate the road.  I don’t care if it’s GM, Tesla, Lyft, etc.

Here’s another link on the same topic

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/innovations/wp/2018/01/12/gms-latest-car-gives-up-steering-wheels-pedals-and-human-control/?__twitter_impression=true


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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3092 on: January 14, 2018, 05:43:48 PM »
I watched a review of the Model 3 from November, and a big concern crept into my mind. 

My parents bought a Prius about 2005 and the glaring midday Southwestern (USA) sun made the screen frequently useless, so they formed a three-sided (thin) cardboard bonnet (think Amish or 18th century Quaker) that extended the shading about 15 cm (6"). 

The Model 3 screen appears to be virtually un-shadeable.  I imagine:  "Officer, I didn't know I was speeding because the sun-glare kept me from seeing the screen which shows how fast I'm going."
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3093 on: January 14, 2018, 06:44:51 PM »
Volvo Cars Drive Me project is finally launched.
https://www.volvocars.com/en-om/about/our-innovation-brands/intellisafe/autonomous-driving/drive-me
The first of 100 families got their car back in December. Paula Hain was hoping to have a car where she could get a nap while en route to her morning flight.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/vetenskap/paula-hain-ar-mer-uppmarksam-nu
Oh what a shame.
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« Reply #3094 on: January 14, 2018, 07:03:16 PM »
I watched a review of the Model 3 from November, and a big concern crept into my mind. 

My parents bought a Prius about 2005 and the glaring midday Southwestern (USA) sun made the screen frequently useless, so they formed a three-sided (thin) cardboard bonnet (think Amish or 18th century Quaker) that extended the shading about 15 cm (6"). 

The Model 3 screen appears to be virtually un-shadeable.  I imagine:  "Officer, I didn't know I was speeding because the sun-glare kept me from seeing the screen which shows how fast I'm going."

This has not been brought up as a significant problem in any of the amateur or professional Model 3 (or Model S or X, for that matter) articles and videos I’ve seen to date.  The Model 3 screen is quite firmly affixed to the dash, so between optimum placement/angle, and a premium anti-glare screen surface, (and the special glass in the roof) it should not be a problem any more often than the usual binnacle display. 

Since the display is such a vital part of the car’s functioning, it would be hard to overlook viewing problems during testing.  But, the display might seem less readable to any camera not recording from the normal height and position of a driver’s eyes.
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #3095 on: January 14, 2018, 07:41:34 PM »
Volvo Cars Drive Me project is finally launched.
https://www.volvocars.com/en-om/about/our-innovation-brands/intellisafe/autonomous-driving/drive-me
The first of 100 families got their car back in December. Paula Hain was hoping to have a car where she could get a nap while en route to her morning flight.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/vetenskap/paula-hain-ar-mer-uppmarksam-nu
Oh what a shame.

Not happening.

Volvo Responsibly Delays Autonomous Car Program Four Years Because It Cares
Quote
Volvo has delayed its Drive Me autonomous car pilot program by four years and will no longer be testing fully-autonomous cars at launch, after initial plans to get the robots rolling by the end of this year. This isn’t very surprising.

The Drive Me program was announced in 2015, and Volvo claimed it would be pushing out 100 new level four autonomous XC90s to families in Sweden to test out its autonomous driving technology by the end of 2017. Similar programs were to be subsequently launched in the U.K. and China.

The Drive Me program has been drastically changed and the new plan is to test limited level two semi-autonomous technologies that require driver attention in a build up to level four testing by 2021. ...

“On the journey, some of the questions that we thought were really difficult to answer have been answered much faster than we expected. And in some areas, we are finding that there were more issues to dig into and solve than we expected,” Marcus Rothoff, Volvo’s autonomous driving program director, told Automotive News Europe.

One of those issues is the automaker’s reluctance to pick a so-called “sensor set” too early.

“The development in sensor performance and processor capabilities is going so much faster than we expected in 2013,” Rothoff said on Monday. “Because advancements are being made at such a rapid pace, we want to make this decision as late as possible.”
https://jalopnik.com/volvo-responsibly-delays-autonomous-car-program-four-ye-1821307293

The debate over which type of sensors to use to feed your autonomous-driving software is still being fought over. LIDAR has commonly been used over the years, and huge, expensive lidar sensors have given way to smaller, cheaper versions.  But LIDAR uses light-frequencies, and so it can’t see through fog, dust, smoke, heavy snow, etc..

Elon Musk knows a thing or two about LIDAR, since his SpaceX Dragon capsule uses it to measure its approach to the Space Station, where every millimeter counts.  But Musk says earth-bound cars can get all the information they need, better, using multiple cameras* and ultra-sonic sensors (which can be cleverly hidden, rather than sticking out like a quasi-Transformer).

Begun, the sensor wars have!

*Edit: and radar!
« Last Edit: January 14, 2018, 10:06:18 PM by Sigmetnow »
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« Reply #3096 on: January 14, 2018, 09:14:41 PM »
The new solid state lidar systems are rather small and could be mounted inside the car about where rear view mirrors now live.  They would only see 150 degrees to 180 degrees rather than a top-mounted unit which sees 360 degrees, but the area aft of the car's front wheels does not need fine grain resolution and could be done with radar or cameras.

The fact that Tesla is manufacturing their EVs without lidar leads me to believe that lidar is not necessary.  It's hard to imagine that Tesla hasn't tested their sensor system in all sorts of conditions.  They've sold a large number of EV into Norway so they must have snow condition data.  And coastal California has plenty of fog along with some rainy days.  Plus I have to believe that the engineers would have a checklist  of potential problem situations.

Perhaps we'll start out with a couple of solutions, wind and without lidar.  Perhaps over time one system will be shown to work better or to cost significantly less.

Remember, the first Model T didn't have an electric starter, fuel pump, windshield wipers, heater, or roll up windows.  Self-driving cars will most likely evolve.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3097 on: January 15, 2018, 01:58:39 AM »
Wont be able to lease or finance an electric car?

A problem I see in the next decade period is that the rapidly falling cost of batteries will feed into a constantly falling cost of electric cars. Once the battery has fallen in cost so far that it becomes a small part of the overall cost that will no longer be an issue, but it will be in the now to 2030 time period.

The falling cost will of course destroy the resale value of ICE cars (causing major issues for car financing and leasing companies, as well as individuals who borrowed to buy a car), but will also lead to the rapid depreciation of previously-sold new electric cars. The result will be much greater levels of assumed deprecation, which will lead to higher lease payments and shorter loan maturities. It will also cause problems for car rental and other car fleet companies.

Again, as the cars get cheaper and stabilize in price (as the battery cost becomes less and less a share of the overall cost) this will not be an issue. But in the interim, up to maybe 2030, it may act to hold back a transition. The result may be a significant drop in car sales until the issue works itself out, causing big problems for car manufacturers (in addition to the destruction in the value of their current assets).

The more I think about this (plus the effect of driverless cars) the more I see a brutal Schumpeterian type creative destruction process which in the short-term may be extremely disruptive to the economy.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3098 on: January 15, 2018, 07:57:32 AM »
Wont be able to lease or finance an electric car?

A problem I see in the next decade period is that the rapidly falling cost of batteries will feed into a constantly falling cost of electric cars. Once the battery has fallen in cost so far that it becomes a small part of the overall cost that will no longer be an issue, but it will be in the now to 2030 time period.

The falling cost will of course destroy the resale value of ICE cars (causing major issues for car financing and leasing companies, as well as individuals who borrowed to buy a car), but will also lead to the rapid depreciation of previously-sold new electric cars. The result will be much greater levels of assumed deprecation, which will lead to higher lease payments and shorter loan maturities. It will also cause problems for car rental and other car fleet companies.

Again, as the cars get cheaper and stabilize in price (as the battery cost becomes less and less a share of the overall cost) this will not be an issue. But in the interim, up to maybe 2030, it may act to hold back a transition. The result may be a significant drop in car sales until the issue works itself out, causing big problems for car manufacturers (in addition to the destruction in the value of their current assets).

The more I think about this (plus the effect of driverless cars) the more I see a brutal Schumpeterian type creative destruction process which in the short-term may be extremely disruptive to the economy.

What would be a leading indicator ? Because these car manufacturers will probably not be the first players to feel the change. Oil demand itself maybe, that should start to drop significantly before it hits the traditional car market, which will still have some support from selling electric cars. Or maybe sea transport from fossil feuls ? That sea transport will be harder to replace by an alternative. But if you don't need it anymore you don't have to replace it. That will hit oil demand even more. But probably there are more and better indicators to see if something is really changing.

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« Reply #3099 on: January 15, 2018, 08:05:01 AM »
Volvo Cars Drive Me project is finally launched.
https://www.volvocars.com/en-om/about/our-innovation-brands/intellisafe/autonomous-driving/drive-me
The first of 100 families got their car back in December. Paula Hain was hoping to have a car where she could get a nap while en route to her morning flight.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/vetenskap/paula-hain-ar-mer-uppmarksam-nu
Oh what a shame.

Not happening.

It did. Two families got their cars in December and another three in January. Didn't translate work on the second link? My real point though, is now in bold.
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