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JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3350 on: February 14, 2018, 11:00:56 PM »
A con man? lol.  What a weird con.

 Most people that invested in the con is making money, except for shorts. Elon's personal fortune is significant, but it is directly tied to Tesla. If Tesla fails he loses billions. His compensation structure is tied to the performance of Tesla. If Tesla is a success, he'll make billions. If Tesla fails he loses billions. How is that a con?

The stock market does not have anything to do with whether the company is financially sound. 
Musk's fortune is based off of a wildly overvalued stock, billions of tax payer dollars due to tax credits, and huge investor infusions for years of money chasing a dream of big profits.  They are 5 billion in the hole plus the billions in tax credits and still heading south.
His compensation was only tied to performance in the last quarter not before that and it is due to their not approaching making a profit yet. 

The con is not being honest about what he is doing.  He knows full well that there is a very high likelyhood that all the billions invested are not likely to pan out.  In the meantime he is getting to be rich, famous and he gets to play at any fun thing he thinks he would like to do.[/quote]

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People that buy his products get arguably the best cars in the world. How is that a con?

Barf!  Nonsense.  The quality of Teslas is not the best all you have to do is look that up.  Plus one of the biggest critiques about Tesla and its mythology is that they are implying that they are building a technology which will help save us from climate change.  But if they were really doing that they would not be building luxury cars for the rich.  There never has been and never will be a need for the Model S or X.  The world has no need for more luxury cars.  Period. Full stop.  Even the Model 3 is an expensive car at $40,000 plus.  Need I point out that personal vehicle need to be subcompact size at worst and at best we would be phasing out the use of personal vehicles all together?

[/quote] The mission statement of Tesla is clear for all to see. To accelerate the advent of the electric car, and despite the difficulties he has done that. How is that a con?[/quote]

He is selling BAU.  That is the biggest con there is.  There is zero chance we maintain our current lifestyles in the world fast approaching us.  Every time someone like Musk gets up and tells people this or that will allow them to continue their affluent way of life that is a con.

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His rockets are already the cheapest  and they are working hard to make them even cheaper  He could have gone the ULA route and charge the government millions for corrupt beaurocracy, instead he keeps striving for cheaper rockets. How is that a con?

Perhaps you could explain to me just a little bit how his or any space program has anything to do with solving climate change.  He is playing in space because he thinks we can't fix things here and he is looking for an out. And he is not taking you with him btw.  This is a deep con in that it leads us away from solutions not towards them.  We are already on a space ship called Earth and it is dying.  We save it or we die with it.

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Sorry but I fail to see a conman. What I see is a man trying very hard  to do things that have never been done before and things that will make our lives better.  Does he fails sometimes? Of course. He is as human as anyone of us, but considering the huge challenges he subjects himself it is not surprising.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Alexander555

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3351 on: February 14, 2018, 11:07:58 PM »
Maybe he's doing a few good things. Can we not say that he pushed the other car producers into electric cars a little faster than what they normaly would have done. That's not a bad thing. And he brought all kinds of batteries under attention. Like the project in Australie.

JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3352 on: February 14, 2018, 11:10:48 PM »
SpaceX is not part of Tesla.

SpaceX has invested over half a billion in Falcon Heavy R&D and this has all come from profits internally generated. So can easily become profitable by slowing down R&D.

Tesla is public not private but somewhat similar. Making money on selling cars, but investing more in new projects and ramping up production of Model 3. If that investment in faster production works then no problem. If the investment fails to ever achieve anything like the production rates aimed for then there are certainly problems. But given a choice of teething troubles being sorted out or fundamental problems why assume the latter when there were no further delays reported with last results?

No SpaceX is not profitable. 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/02/05/how-profitable-is-spacex-really.aspx

https://www.theverge.com/2017/1/13/14264882/spacex-elon-musk-satellite-business-money-rocket-financial

People confuse the difference between what a stock value is doing and what profits are.  SpaceX is far more viable than Tesla in financial terms.  But its 21 billion stock market valuation is insane just as the stock market valuation of Tesla is insane.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3353 on: February 14, 2018, 11:39:42 PM »
Sigmetnow

Considering how consistent Teslas projections over the years have been utterly wrong or misleading why would you give them any credence.  I would understand it if it was the first time you were exposed to them and did not know better, but you should by now know that they are never accurate.  So are you shilling or what?

Buddy

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For a guy that taught himself coding at the age of 12....Elon has come a long way....and he has PUSHED SOCIETY as well as OTHER COMPANIES.....to look ahead at what may be possible, and what is better for society.

I am NOT someone who worships at the "alter of Elon".....but I am more than willing to give him a TON of credit for doing some EXTRMELY GOOD THINGS FOR SOCIETY.

And I wouldn't be one to "kiss off" the idea of Elon getting to Mars.  I tend to bet against true con men like Donald Trump.  Now THERE is a con man.

Anyone who just saw the latest launch of SpaceEx and the Falcon rocket must be thinking:  "If THAT is a con....it is sure a damn good one."

I'm sorry but I have higher standards than you do I guess. 

My brother was a genius too.  When he got older he became one of the architects of globalization as the head of North American Operations for one of the top Fortune 500 companies. He and I used to discuss what this meant for working class and middle class Americans.  He said was labor arbitrage they were planning and that the Americans are going to have to lower their wages to match those in Mexico, India and eventually China.  I pointed out that this would completely fuck up America and his response was we are not an American company but a global one.  So don't be too impressed with brains..Hitler was smart too. Examine results or what the change implies.

Musk did not invent any of the technologies we are speaking of he is just adding to the technological tree.  He did not even start Tesla but took it away from the guys who did start it.

He did not jump start electric cars.  He jumped into making rich peoples toys and marketed that this would save us.  A few here seem to be drinking his coolaid.  The big car companies how actually have had ev's in their sights for a long time have been waiting for the right time to get started as they intend to make lots of money making them.  EV cars will not save us though.  It is very unlikely they will even delay our reckoning by any appreciable amount.  We could have dealt with climate change if we had decided to deal with the big problems but we play around fooling people.  That is a con.

Who gives a rats ass if Musk gets to Mars.  It will do none of us any good what-so-ever.  Sure it is an amazing adventure and captures the imagination.  But it solves not one problem down here on space ship Earth. You and your's are going to live and die right here and it we don't get our shit together they will get to die sooner rather than later.  Keep that in mind.

The lack of critical thinking is one reason we are in this mess.  It does not matter one iota how cool something is if it is not oriented towards getting us through the troubles which worsening climate change and declining carrying capacity are bringing us. If you are not aware of it yet the situation is beyond dire.  We ran out of meaningful time years ago.  We should be doing absolutely nothing which is not solely focused on as fast a fix as possible. 

I must admit I think of you and Sig as no different than climate deniers as you have the information on what the situation is right in front of you and still you dither or distract from what is needed.

We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3354 on: February 15, 2018, 03:02:05 AM »
JimD, have you heard of Parkinson's law?

Work expands to fill the time available for its completion

I think that part of Elon's secret sauce is the exploitation of the complement  of Parkinson's law.

Work contracts to meet the time available for its completion.
 
The less time you get to complete a goal, the harder you work to find solutions and eliminate unnecessary  distractions. That means higher productivity. This philosophy can be used as a sort of hack of human behavior.

The problem is that there is a limit. There is a minimum amount of time in which a task can be completed regardless of the resources used to complete the task.

 In a perfect world you want to set the time as close as possible to the minimum time, without going under it.  Any time lower than the minimum time requiered results in an impossible task, and thats counterproductive. Any time higher than the minimum required will be wasted time.

 Setting the minimum time for tasks that have been done before  and are well known is relatively easy. Setting the minimum time for tasks that have never been done before is very hard.

I think Elon Musk examines the physics and economics  of the goals he sets and estimates the minimum  amount possible to complete the goals of his master plan. Using the enormous resources he has accumulated over time he tries his best to  complete them in time. That is a key ingredient for the succes of both Tesla and Space x.

But such pace is grueling and vulnerable to unforseen delays, which is what is happenning now. Model 3 is a quarter late, and will probably be 2 quarters late, maybe even more. But the flipside is that Tesla is likely producing 1000 cars a week already, people love the car and  there is a 500k people waiting line for the car.

If it wasn't  for the extremely high expectations, they would have been perceived as extremely succesful. Right now it is very likely they sort out the production problems very soon and when they do, the delays will be forgotten and the benefits of aggressive goals will
be obvious.
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Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3355 on: February 15, 2018, 03:55:48 PM »
Here's a short video clip on the 3 Volkswagen ID electric cars coming out:

Volkswagen Electric Hatchback (2019)
Volkswagen Crossover (2019 or 2020)
Volkswagen Buzz (2022)

LOVE the Buzz and also like the hatchback.  I think the Buzz is going to really kill it in the "family segment" of cars....as well as sports enthusiast and people with a small business (that routinely cart stuff around).



It is electric cars like the Tesla 3, Volkswagen Hatchback, Volkswagen Buzz, and the Porsche E that are going to make the market "take off" in their own separate categories.  Maybe my girlfriend will by me a Porsche Mission E (not holding my breath)....  :(

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3356 on: February 15, 2018, 04:42:23 PM »
More on Dyson’s plans for electric cars.  Lightweight materials, and delaying the use of solid state batteries until future models.

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Through interviews with more than 20 people, the FT has gleaned details about the project's scope and current status, including learning that Dyson is considering excluding its world-leading "solid state" battery technology from its debut model.  Dyson declined to confirm many of the details in this report.

The company is initially planning a range of three vehicles, according to two people.
The first car will be used to establish a route to market, a supply chain and a potential customer base. Because of this, the vehicle will have a relatively low production run — in the single-digit thousands, three people said.

The second and third vehicles, released later, will aim to be substantially higher volume.

"Even with a low-volume vehicle, they can make a business case and they will learn a tremendous amount about how to build a vehicle," says Philippe Houchois, an automotive analyst at Jefferies investment bank.

Dyson has worked extensively on lightweight materials, leading several people to speculate the first vehicle may be substantially comprised of plastics rather than metals, something usually reserved for high-end supercars.  This would make the cars lighter — important because of the weight of electric batteries — but also allowing for more inventive designs.  When announcing the project last September, Sir James said the first car would look "quite different" to any currently on the market.

Crucially, Dyson is considering using lithium ion batteries rather than solid state in the first car, according to three people.  Although the company has not confirmed a decision, a choice not to use solid state would indicate a scaling back in the technical ambitions for its first vehicle.

The aim is to use solid state in the two future models, one person with sight of the plans said.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/02/14/dyson-bets-on-electric-cars-to-shake-up-industry.html
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numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3357 on: February 15, 2018, 10:09:38 PM »
Gross margin on the cars remains positive, always has been. What’s with this persistent meme that they lose money on each sale?

They had profitable quarters before — how would that be possible if they lost money on each car?

The comparison to amazon is that amazon also ploughed money into growth for years, until recently; now they’ve been unable to spend all their profit. But they would if they could. Tesla is priced according to the expectation that’s what they’re going to do as well. If you’re trying to grow fast, profits are bad — you pay tax on profits. Better to spend it all, and if you’ve got cheap access to cash, spend that too. That’s what investors are paying you for after all.

Fast growth is risky, because you build up expenses to support a company larger than you actually are. A couple missteps and you run out of cash. Tesla has about a year before they’re dead.

No the gross margin on the cars has not always been positive.  It has actually never been positive.  Tesla has only stayed in business due to constant influxes of cash from investors who are hoping that just a little more money going in will result in a return. Just one example:

Quote
This amount to a loss of over $13,000 for each of the 25,051 cars delivered in the quarter.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-03/tesla-burns-through-620-million-loses-13000-car-made-ahead-model-3-launch

I urge you to read the links in my post and to read financial analysis's of Teslas quarterly results going back for years.  Then you will see how they have had a couple of quarters of supposed positive results (NOT).

In financial terms Tesla has been a disaster not a success.  It has been a money sink and still does not shows likelyhood of turning that around and producing actual profits.  I am not talking about folks making money on the stock as that has nothing to do with what I am talking about. 

Musk is a con man because he twists the facts and obscures the truth.  He talks an image and a story which lures in cullible people who then give him money to play with as he desires.  But he is not delivering a sound investment.  And he is leading people to believe that he is somehow saving their world for them.  He isn't and he can't.

Zerohedge? OK, whatever. You going to cite Watts' blog too?

Tesla is registering net losses. The gross margin on each car is positive. Those are both facts.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3358 on: February 16, 2018, 03:39:42 AM »
Opel plans to build an electric Corsa as Chevy Bolt EV deal with GM isn’t working out
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Opel hasn’t been able to capitalize on the demand for the Ampera E in Europe because it is dependent on GM’s supply of the Chevy Bolt EV.

GM limited the allocations in each market to extremely low volumes, which forced Opel to ask its Norwegian dealers to stop taking orders for the Bolt EV last year and to later increase the price by $5,500 for the electric vehicle in Europe.

Now, Opel CEO Michael Lohscheller announced this week that the next generation of the Opel/Vauxhall Corsa will be produced exclusively in Zaragoza as of 2019 and an all-electric version will be included on the production line by 2020. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/02/15/opel-electric-corsa-chevy-bolt-ev-deal-gm/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3359 on: February 17, 2018, 07:40:42 PM »
An “unnamed German premium automaker” paid ‘about 185,000 Euro’ (~$230,000), before transportation and customs, to get their hands on a Tesla Model 3, test-drive it, and tear it apart.

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They shared insights from the engineers:

“Each sub-assembly system was put to the test, but the testers were especially impressed by the power electronics. Compact, expandable, fully integrated, modular, easily accessible, well-protected, reasonably priced and astonishingly clever in many details – that was the verdict of the experts, to which colleagues from other manufacturers also agreed.

Aside from the engineering, they were also impressed by the design. They went as far as saying that Tesla “perfected the minimalist design” – referring to the Model 3’s interior.

But they see the minimalist spreading to the powertrain:

“This minimalism runs through the entire vehicle. There is initially only one engine, only one forward and reverse gear, only one driven pair of wheels, only one cooling circuit for the entire system.”
...
https://electrek.co/2018/02/17/tesla-model-3-german-automaker-reverse-engineered/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3360 on: February 17, 2018, 08:49:44 PM »
And EV sales data shows the German automakers’ interest is not just academic:

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Tesla Inc. is growing even more quickly in Germany than electric-car sales generally. Registrations gained 75 percent last year to 3,332 vehicles. That’s approaching the 3,900 sales of the Porsche Panamera four-door, a close competitor to Tesla’s Model S.

Even after big gains, battery vehicles remain a tiny fraction of last year’s German sales of more than 3.4 million new cars. But new models rapidly rolling out across showrooms nationwide could end electrics’ bit-player status soon. Electric vehicles hitting showrooms this year include Jaguar’s I-Pace crossover sport utility vehicle, as well as Audi’s Q6 e-tron SUV. BMW is unveiling a battery-powered Mini next year, alongside Mercedes-Benz’s SUV as part of its EQ brand. Diesel-stained Volkswagen will launch the fully-electric I.D. Crozz compact crossover and the I.D. Neo hatchback in 2020.
...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-13/teslas-are-finally-replacing-porsches-on-the-autobahn
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3361 on: February 18, 2018, 08:49:44 PM »
Just a one-off test, but an interesting result:

Tesla Model S charged with diesel generator still pollutes less than a diesel sedan
https://electrek.co/2018/02/16/tesla-model-s-charged-diesel-generator/



But U.S. investigators found a more troubling emissions problem:

Software may have helped Daimler pass U.S. emissions tests: report
Quote
BERLIN (Reuters) - U.S. investigators probing Mercedes maker Daimler (DAIGn.DE) have found that its cars were equipped with software which may have help them to pass diesel emissions tests, a German newspaper reported on Sunday, citing confidential documents. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-daimler-emissions/software-may-have-helped-daimler-pass-u-s-emissions-tests-report-idUSKCN1G20B2
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3362 on: February 18, 2018, 09:00:33 PM »
Whether this is true or not is less important than the fact it is one of the big automakers saying it.

Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance CEO claims to be ‘only carmaker making money selling electric cars’
Quote
Carlos Ghosn, chairman of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance, claims that they are ahead of the game when it comes to making money on EVs.  The executive told CNBC today:

“We are probably the most advanced carmaker in terms of costs of electric cars and we have announced already in 2017 that we are probably the only carmaker who’s starting to make money selling electric cars,”

The company just posted a record operating profit of 3.854 billion euros ($4.84 billion) for 2017, but Ghosn didn’t specify how electric cars contributed to those profits, and their electric car sales still represent only a small fraction of their total sales. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/02/16/renault-nissan-mitsubishi-alliance-making-money-selling-electric-cars/
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3363 on: February 18, 2018, 10:07:11 PM »
Whether this is true or not is less important than the fact it is one of the big automakers saying it.

Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance CEO claims to be ‘only carmaker making money selling electric cars’
Quote
Carlos Ghosn, chairman of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance, claims that they are ahead of the game when it comes to making money on EVs.  The executive told CNBC today:

“We are probably the most advanced carmaker in terms of costs of electric cars and we have announced already in 2017 that we are probably the only carmaker who’s starting to make money selling electric cars,”


Do you see this as a glass half full or a glass half empty?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3364 on: February 19, 2018, 03:30:01 PM »
SH, I am pleased to see a legacy automaker claiming electric vehicles can be profitable... after the years of companies railing against EVs, and EVs made for compliance only, and even “don’t buy our EV, we lose money on each one we make.”...


But now Daimler confesses how difficult the transition will be.  All the big automakers, and their suppliers, have billions of dollars of ICE assets poised to become worthless.

“Due to the planned electrification of new model series and a shift in customer demand from diesel to gasoline engines, the Mercedes-Benz Cars segment in particular is faced with the risk that Daimler will require changed volumes of components from suppliers. […] This could result in over- or under-utilization of production capacities for certain suppliers. If suppliers cannot cover their fixed costs, there is the risk that suppliers could demand compensation payments,”

Daimler warns that its electric transition could create major supply chain shake-up
https://electrek.co/2018/02/19/daimler-electric-transition-supply-chain-shake-up/
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Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3365 on: February 19, 2018, 03:48:21 PM »
Quote
But now Daimler confesses how difficult the transition will be.  All the big automakers, and their suppliers, have billions of dollars of ICE assets poised to become worthless.

Just think about the cost....and complexity....of keeping two or three different types of vehicles going at the same time:  ICE, Hybrids, and Electric.

It would be a nightmare.  Which is a BIG advantage for the EV only car manufacturers like Tesla.

There will be a significant shakeout....with some making it through, and some won't.  And this is even BEFORE we talk about a change to LESS CARS via subscription business models, Uber business models, etc.  A lot of stranded assets....

Change is coming.....big time.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3366 on: February 19, 2018, 04:02:14 PM »
Here's an interesting article from the Seattle area...with video.  The article gives BOTH sides to the story:  Quick transition.....or SLOW transition.....to Autonomous EV's. 

Seba thinks that 95% OF THE MILES DRIVEN by 2030 will be by autonomous EV's.  If I hazard to guess anything....I am sure it would be SHORT of that 95%.  How short...I have no idea.  But keep in mind that Seba is talking about MILES DRIVEN....not % of cars.

It IS interesting to "look out over the horizon" and stretch your mind a bit.

http://www.kiro7.com/news/local/advocate-wants-i-5-converted-into-corridor-for-autonomous-vehicles/701556440       

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3367 on: February 19, 2018, 07:20:33 PM »
Here's an interesting article from the Seattle area...with video.  The article gives BOTH sides to the story:  Quick transition.....or SLOW transition.....to Autonomous EV's. 

Seba thinks that 95% OF THE MILES DRIVEN by 2030 will be by autonomous EV's.  If I hazard to guess anything....I am sure it would be SHORT of that 95%.  How short...I have no idea.  But keep in mind that Seba is talking about MILES DRIVEN....not % of cars.

It IS interesting to "look out over the horizon" and stretch your mind a bit.

http://www.kiro7.com/news/local/advocate-wants-i-5-converted-into-corridor-for-autonomous-vehicles/701556440     

A portion of the I-5 is already dubbed the “West Coast Electric Highway,” being one of the first in the U.S. to have had lots of DC fast chargers installed along its length.

http://www.westcoastgreenhighway.com/electrichighways.htm
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Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3368 on: February 19, 2018, 08:11:00 PM »
Sigmetnow:

Quote
A portion of the I-5 is already dubbed the “West Coast Electric Highway,” being one of the first in the U.S. to have had lots of DC fast chargers installed along its length.

VERY cool.  Oregon is a very "progressive" state (functionally progressive).  Nice to see my old "stomping grounds" are pushing the envelope....

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3369 on: February 21, 2018, 04:44:12 PM »
British science fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke formulated three adages that are known as Clarke's three laws, of which the third law is the best known and most widely cited:

1. When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.
2. The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.
3. Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic

Tesla Semi defies laws of physics and is passing us by if true, says Daimler’s head of trucks
https://electrek.co/2018/02/21/tesla-semi-defies-laws-physic-daimlers/



Daimler’s head of trucks needs to start believing in magic, because Tesla semi prototypes are on the road, and, per their latest invester letter:
Quote
...Tesla Semi combines a real-world range of up to 500 miles with unprecedented performance while pulling a standard payload. Its distinctive torque enables smooth acceleration to highway speed even when fully loaded with cargo. Moreover, it has been designed to dramatically improve safety not only for the driver and cargo, but also for pedestrians and other cars on the road.

Tesla will be the first Semi customer. We plan to use the Tesla Semi for our own logistics by transporting Model 3 components from Gigafactory 1 to Fremont. Additionally, our initial fleet customers who placed reservations for the Tesla Semi have been helping us develop the best possible truck.

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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3370 on: February 21, 2018, 05:04:05 PM »

Tesla Semi defies laws of physics and is passing us by if true, says Daimler’s head of trucks


Quote
...Tesla Semi combines a real-world range of up to 500 miles with unprecedented performance while pulling a standard payload. .... our initial fleet customers who placed reservations for the Tesla Semi have been helping us develop the best possible truck.

Tesla Semi defies laws of physics. I don't think so. I think Tesla simply has that magic ability to push the technology beyond existing limits, thereby expanding the application of science. In the words of the song "simply better than all the rest". The Falcon and the EV's show that the Musk has got the magic ingredient. ( Mind you, I still think the Hyperloop is not on - there he is defying the Laws of Physics)
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be cause

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3371 on: February 21, 2018, 07:02:00 PM »
after 5 years .. I have just seen my local charging point in use .. there is an electric car in N. Ireland !
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3372 on: February 21, 2018, 07:11:58 PM »
after 5 years .. I have just seen my local charging point in use .. there is an electric car in N. Ireland !

Northern Ireland has many chargers (fast chargers are in orange below).  According to PlugShare, some are used quite frequently. :)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3373 on: February 21, 2018, 07:17:01 PM »
Silver Tesla Semi spotted doing a tire-shredding acceleration run in the wild
https://www.teslarati.com/silver-tesla-semi-spy-shot-acceleration-hq/
Brief video at the link. ;D
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3374 on: February 21, 2018, 07:23:28 PM »

Tesla Semi defies laws of physics and is passing us by if true, says Daimler’s head of trucks


Quote
...Tesla Semi combines a real-world range of up to 500 miles with unprecedented performance while pulling a standard payload. .... our initial fleet customers who placed reservations for the Tesla Semi have been helping us develop the best possible truck.

Tesla Semi defies laws of physics. I don't think so. I think Tesla simply has that magic ability to push the technology beyond existing limits, thereby expanding the application of science. In the words of the song "simply better than all the rest". The Falcon and the EV's show that the Musk has got the magic ingredient. ( Mind you, I still think the Hyperloop is not on - there he is defying the Laws of Physics)

“Defies the law of physics” is what you say when your best company engineers haven’t been able to come up with anything anywhere as good. ;)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3375 on: February 21, 2018, 08:52:37 PM »
In contrast with carmakers elsewhere, China has emphasized volume production of smaller, cheaper, and less powerful EVs (plug-in hybrids and BEVs).

China's BYD tops global electric-car production for third year in a row
Quote
All BYD vehicles are highway-capable vehicles, and it's worth noting that China plans to end its incentives for electric vehicles that cannot operate at a sustained speed of more than 100 km/h (62 mph).

That is likely to cut sales of low-speed and neighborhood EVs substantially, including for the global second-place finisher.  At 103,199 registrations, that company is BAIC, whose E-Series vehicle will have to be upgraded in future to meet the new high-speed requirement.

Another Chinese company whose sales are almost entirely in its home market, BAIC edged out Tesla by less than 100 units. The Silicon Valley automaker cited a total of 103,122 deliveries for 2017.
...
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1115398_chinas-byd-tops-global-electric-car-production-for-third-year-in-a-row
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3376 on: February 22, 2018, 12:40:32 AM »
”Initially the focus will be on inner-city goods transport and delivery services – the ranges required here are well within the scope of our Mercedes-Benz eActros.”

Here are the trucks Mercedes is building currently.  Of interest is that they are apparently government-funded.

A first look at Mercedes-Benz’s latest all-electric truck: the eActros
https://electrek.co/2018/02/21/mercedes-benz-all-electric-truck-eactros/
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numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3377 on: February 22, 2018, 08:50:59 PM »
Workhorse signs a deal to provide a few electric vans to UPS. Notable part: cost parity with the diesel equivalent (and, expected, lower operating cost).

The trick is short range. The application doesn’t need long range, so no point having a huge battery.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/02/100-mile-range-electric-delivery-van-could-beat-diesel-in-lifetime-cost/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3378 on: February 22, 2018, 09:02:54 PM »
This is big news, if you have been following the Tesla Model 3 production ramp.  Still limited to the options that are the most profitable but easy to make.  Looking for about 2,500 Model 3 produced per week by the end of the quarter (March).

Tesla opens Model 3 orders to non-owners with reservations
Quote
Tesla Model 3 reservation holders who have never been Tesla owners are starting to receive invitations to configure their vehicles for the first time.

Until this week, Tesla only opened its online configurator to current owners.

The priority extended that to current owners placing a reservation this month and being invited to order the Model 3 and take delivery within weeks.

As we reported last week, it was a good indicator that Tesla would soon open orders for non-owners and sure enough, this week we’ve received our first reports of non-owners receiving invitations to configure with delivery in weeks.

Unfortunately, those looking to turn their Model 3 reservations into orders are still limited to the ‘Long Range’ Model 3 with premium interior package.

Earlier this month, Tesla delayed the production of the standard Model 3 battery pack to “late 2018”. The standard battery pack and interior are necessary for Tesla to achieve its promise base price of $35,000 for the Model 3. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/02/22/tesla-model-3-orders-non-owners/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3379 on: February 22, 2018, 09:10:13 PM »
Workhorse signs a deal to provide a few electric vans to UPS. Notable part: cost parity with the diesel equivalent (and, expected, lower operating cost).

The trick is short range. The application doesn’t need long range, so no point having a huge battery.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/02/100-mile-range-electric-delivery-van-could-beat-diesel-in-lifetime-cost/


This makes it sound like switching to EVs will be the natural course of things for UPS — no big deal. 8)
From your article:
Quote
The partnership with UPS is also quite interesting. Per the terms of the agreement, UPS will test the vans in Los Angeles, Dallas, and Atlanta through 2019. Then, according to a UPS press release, "UPS and Workhorse will fine-tune the design in time to deploy a larger fleet in 2019 and beyond."

UPS hopes that after the second rollout, it can make the electric van a "standard selection" when the company needs to add to its fleet. UPS says it currently has about 35,000 comparable diesel or gas vans. We can assume that as those are lost to attrition, all-electric could be a viable option for many situations.
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Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3380 on: February 22, 2018, 10:02:32 PM »
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3381 on: February 22, 2018, 10:15:20 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3382 on: February 23, 2018, 12:56:56 AM »
Workhorse signs a deal to provide a few electric vans to UPS. Notable part: cost parity with the diesel equivalent (and, expected, lower operating cost).

The trick is short range. The application doesn’t need long range, so no point having a huge battery.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/02/100-mile-range-electric-delivery-van-could-beat-diesel-in-lifetime-cost/


This makes it sound like switching to EVs will be the natural course of things for UPS — no big deal. 8)
From your article:
Quote
The partnership with UPS is also quite interesting. Per the terms of the agreement, UPS will test the vans in Los Angeles, Dallas, and Atlanta through 2019. Then, according to a UPS press release, "UPS and Workhorse will fine-tune the design in time to deploy a larger fleet in 2019 and beyond."

UPS hopes that after the second rollout, it can make the electric van a "standard selection" when the company needs to add to its fleet. UPS says it currently has about 35,000 comparable diesel or gas vans. We can assume that as those are lost to attrition, all-electric could be a viable option for many situations.

UPS is putting their fingers in every pot. It's up to Workhorse to deliver on their promises; otherwise UPS will find another vendor (such as Daimler, as you posted above).

BenB

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3383 on: February 23, 2018, 01:23:20 PM »
In January, EV sales more than doubled in Germany compared with January 2016:

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com.es/2018/02/germany-january-2018.html?m=1

Leading the way, the smart fortwo, followed by the e-Golf. Perhaps some of these EVs are being exported to Norway, but the mix of cars is somewhat different from the Norwegian one, so probably the increase reflects real demand in Germany.

Buddy

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« Reply #3384 on: February 23, 2018, 03:23:27 PM »
Just what the automotive market needed.....ANOTHER COMPETITOR:-[

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-06/uber-bell-helicopter-alliance-to-bring-first-air-taxis-by-2025

Thinking back on just the last 12 months.....the change has been pretty gobsmacking:

1)  Announcements by automakers of increasing the push to EV's
2)  Battery costs continue to be pushed down
3)  Uber, Lyft, and others of their ilk continue to increase ridership
4)  Harley Davidson entering the fray of electric motorcycles
5)  Drone taxi service starting in Dubai

"The future aint what it used to be."  ;) 
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silkman

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3385 on: February 23, 2018, 05:18:01 PM »
One positive resulting from the arrival of polar air here in the UK, courtesy of the SSW, is crystal clear skies and sunshine.

I've had my new i3 trickle charging from my solar array for 5 hours today and have re-charged the battery to the level it was at at the start of a week in which I've driven about 40 pollution free miles around and through my small home town. Pollution free and essentially fuel cost free then?

Actually it's much better than that as, as an early adopter, I get a feed in payment of just over £0.5 per KWh generated whether I use it at home or export the excess to the grid. What's not to like?

Well, there is one fly in the ointment.  The FiT payment is made by the utility supplier and is recovered via the tariff. So my low, cost pollution free transport is being subsidised by other customers which makes me more than a little uncomfortable That said I'm still just short of an overall positive ROI on the array but should hit breakeven by the end of the year.


SteveMDFP

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3386 on: February 23, 2018, 05:29:26 PM »

I've had my new i3 trickle charging from my solar array for 5 hours today and have re-charged the battery to the level it was at at the start of a week in which I've driven about 40 pollution free miles around and through my small home town. Pollution free and essentially fuel cost free then?


This may be an unappreciated driver for faster EV adoption and home solar panel installations.  If you have a sunny roof, panels, and maybe a PowerWall, your car "fuel" is close to free.  And no time or money wasted at charging stations. 

I might personally set this up for myself immediately, but I can't park my car close enough to my home.  Grrrr.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #3387 on: February 24, 2018, 04:03:58 PM »
DHL, one of the largest logistics firms in the world, now expects that each Tesla Semi electric truck could save them ‘tens of thousands of dollars a year’.

“We are estimating that we could have pay back within a year-and-a-half based on energy usage as well as lower maintenance cost.”
https://electrek.co/2018/02/23/tesla-semi-electric-truck-savings-dhl/


To which Elon Musk replied:
“Am feeling optimistic about beating the Semi specs announced at the unveiling for the same price. The Tesla Semi will be something really special.”
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/967238527418167296
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numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3388 on: February 25, 2018, 03:03:31 AM »
That’s from the announced specs. 8 hours a day, 40 mph, 300 days a year is 100,000 miles. At 7 mpg and $2.50 that’s $35k in diesel. The same distance, averaging 2 kWh per mile and $0.07/kWh is $14k. That’s two tens of thousands in annual energy savings.

1/7th of a gallon of diesel would produce about 2 kWh in a diesel generator, so Tesla promising 2 kWh/mile is promising the minimum. There’s speculation (how well grounded I don’t know) that they’ll achieve more like 1.5 kWh/mile thanks to regenerative braking and better aerodynamics. That would save another few thousand dollars a year. More importantly it means you only need a smaller battery to get the promised range.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #3389 on: February 25, 2018, 07:32:10 PM »
U.K.

Drivers are going green as Norfolk sees 60% rise in electric cars
Quote
From September 2016 to 2017, the number of registered plug-in vehicles in Norfolk increased by 60pc - one of the biggest rises in the country - with an increase of 56pc over the same period in Suffolk.

The Department for Transport statistics show that from July to September in 2016 there were 538 electric vehicles on the roads in Norfolk. And by the latest quarter, from July to September in 2017, that figure had grown to 863.

However there’s still a long way to go to reach the 2,824 electric cars in Peterborough, which had the highest increase of any local authority in the UK.

The rise has been helped by an increase in the range of electric vehicles on offer, lower prices and more miles before drivers need to recharge. ...
http://www.edp24.co.uk/motoring/driver-norfolk-60pc-rise-electric-cars-1-5408869
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3390 on: February 26, 2018, 02:56:06 PM »
Chinese investment in EVs is shaking up the industry.

What to Know About Daimler in China After Geely's Big Investment
- Billionaire Li strikes deal to bring Daimler closer to Geely
- Buffett-backed BYD’s pact with Daimler may now be threatened
Quote
Billionaire Li Shufu becoming the largest shareholder of Daimler AG is poised to shake up the dynamics of the Chinese auto industry, where local brands use partnerships with Western manufacturers to gain technology and prestige.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-02-26/geely-is-daimler-s-top-investor-what-happens-to-other-partners
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JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3391 on: February 26, 2018, 03:39:12 PM »
In January, EV sales more than doubled in Germany compared with January 2016:

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com.es/2018/02/germany-january-2018.html?m=1

Leading the way, the smart fortwo, followed by the e-Golf. Perhaps some of these EVs are being exported to Norway, but the mix of cars is somewhat different from the Norwegian one, so probably the increase reflects real demand in Germany.

I suspect a lot of it is related to this.

Quote
The Diesel Disaster
Are Driving Bans Coming for German Cities?
A court ruling could ban millions of diesel cars from German city centers, rendering the vehicles worthless. The federal government has considered responding with free public transportation and by forcing car manufacturers to submit to new requirements. ...

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/emissions-violations-have-german-cities-facing-driving-bans-a-1194269.html
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JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3392 on: February 26, 2018, 04:38:48 PM »


Zerohedge? OK, whatever. You going to cite Watts' blog too?

Tesla is registering net losses. The gross margin on each car is positive. Those are both facts.

Oh I see. That response reminds me of the one recently which said since I disagreed I was a misogynist.

The financial and engineering press is full of articles which indicate problems with the finances of Tesla.  Google will turn up piles of them.  Musk has a many years long reputation of being dishonest in his quarterly reporting.  He has clearly lied about his EV semi and been called on it and his acolytes make excuses that for him the laws of physics don't apply.   I guess you are a believer or an atheist here. 

The fundamental reason I started this thread years ago was to point out that the answer is 'no cars'.  EV technology is fine and the collective we will advance it a long ways over the next few decades.  But it will not save us - thus my atheism.  A world of a couple of billion ev's just justify's extending the standard infrastructure and human footprint.  EV's as they are being approached, especially by Musk - luxury, are another form of BAU and a denial of our desperate situation.

We must change our way of life and our footprint.

People who are into the religion of Musk have far more in common with Watt's and the Koch brothers than I ever will.  I would get out my pitchfork and guillotine and deal with them and their kind first thing - not find excuses to let them play me.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

crandles

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3393 on: February 26, 2018, 06:06:03 PM »


Zerohedge? OK, whatever. You going to cite Watts' blog too?

Tesla is registering net losses. The gross margin on each car is positive. Those are both facts.

Oh I see. That response reminds me of the one recently which said since I disagreed I was a misogynist.

The financial and engineering press is full of articles which indicate problems with the finances of Tesla.  Google will turn up piles of them.  Musk has a many years long reputation of being dishonest in his quarterly reporting.  He has clearly lied about his EV semi and been called on it and his acolytes make excuses that for him the laws of physics don't apply.   I guess you are a believer or an atheist here. 

The fundamental reason I started this thread years ago was to point out that the answer is 'no cars'.  EV technology is fine and the collective we will advance it a long ways over the next few decades.  But it will not save us - thus my atheism.  A world of a couple of billion ev's just justify's extending the standard infrastructure and human footprint.  EV's as they are being approached, especially by Musk - luxury, are another form of BAU and a denial of our desperate situation.

We must change our way of life and our footprint.

People who are into the religion of Musk have far more in common with Watt's and the Koch brothers than I ever will.  I would get out my pitchfork and guillotine and deal with them and their kind first thing - not find excuses to let them play me.

You are the one who wrote

No the gross margin on the cars has not always been positive.  It has actually never been positive.

How about you either try to show some evidence or admit you were wrong rather than waffling away?

It isn't difficult to find data such as
Quote
Annual Income Statement (values in 000's) Get Quarterly Data
Period Ending:   Trend   12/31/2017   12/31/2016   12/31/2015   12/31/2014
Total Revenue   $11,758,751   $7,000,132   $4,046,025   $3,198,356
Cost of Revenue   $9,536,264   $5,400,875   $3,122,522   $2,316,685
Gross Profit   $2,222,487   $1,599,257   $923,503   $881,671

Net Income   ($1,961,400)   ($674,914)   ($888,663)   ($294,040)
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/financials?query=income-statement

Are you able to calculate gross margin from these sort of numbers?

Or are you going to come up with some conspiracy theory that the accountants have it all wrong and the auditors haven't noticed and ....

Or maybe you think there are huge gross margins on solar PV and other activities and gross losses on cars?

or ... ?

Buddy

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« Reply #3394 on: February 26, 2018, 08:01:05 PM »
For those concerned that there will be more cars than there are people....here are some interesting FACTS:

1)  Car sharing grew by over 34% last year
2)  Uber had over 2 BILLION rides in 2016...up from 140 million in 2014 (up MORE THAN 14 TIMES over 2014).  Remember when Tony Seba talked about "S Curves"....

Yea....but Uber and Lyft DON'T MAKE ANY MONEY!.  Must be a "con job"?  ;)

Well...not exactly.  Here's a video that describes 3 "forces" that are coming together:  (1) shared services, (2) electric vehicles, and (3) autonomous vehicles.



NOTE:  This ISN'T a "Tony Seba video".  It's ALWAYS healthy to get other input....

« Last Edit: February 27, 2018, 05:56:33 PM by Buddy »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3395 on: February 26, 2018, 08:59:14 PM »
Car wars!

China's Geely makes $9 billion Daimler bet against tech 'invaders'
Quote
BEIJING/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Chinese carmaker Geely [GEELY.UL] has built up an almost 10 percent stake in Daimler (DAIGn.DE) in a $9 billion bet by its chairman that he can access the Mercedes-Benz owner’s technology in the growing battle for the future of automotives.
...
Geely officials plan to travel to Stuttgart to meet Daimler executives early next week and also hope to meet top German government officials in Berlin, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The Chinese firm plans to use the meetings to underline that it intends to be a supportive long-term investor, they said.
...
In November, Geely asked Daimler to issue new shares so it could buy a stake, as a way to access Mercedes-Benz technology for electric cars and trucks, including battery technology, to help Geely comply with a Chinese crackdown on pollution.

But the German company turned down the offer saying it did not want to dilute existing shareholders, sources at the time told Reuters.

Li changed tactics, and quietly amassed a stake of 9.69 percent worth $9 billion at Daimler’s current share price. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-daimler-geely-stake/chinas-geely-makes-9-billion-daimler-bet-against-tech-invaders-idUSKCN1G72B7
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #3396 on: February 27, 2018, 05:03:47 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3397 on: February 27, 2018, 08:05:35 PM »
Energy Minister calls for banning diesel, gas-based cars in Israel by 2030
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Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz called on Monday for Israel to cease using fossils fuels by 2030 in powering vehicles and generating electricity, a move that could jump-start Israeli green technology.

Addressing the Israel Energy and Environment Institute’s National Energy Conference in Tel Aviv, Steinitz said that the Israeli government would ban the import of gas and diesel-based cars in twelve years’ time.

“We intend to reach a situation in which Israel’s industry will be [using] natural gas, and most importantly, transportation in Israel will be based on natural gas or electricity,” Steinitz said. “From 2030 onward, the State of Israel will create alternatives and will no longer allow the import of gasoline and diesel-based cars.”
http://m.jpost.com/Israel-News/Energy-Minister-calls-for-banning-diesel-gas-based-cars-in-Israel-by-2030-543768


German cities are now allowed to enforce driving bans on diesel cars
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Now the environmental and consumer watchdog Environmental Action Germany (DUH) has taken both cities to court in order to force them to act and protect public health.

Today, we learned that Germany’s top administrative court has ruled that it is legal for cities to ban diesel cars. A local paper reported:

“The court in Stuttgart said driving bans were the “most effective” means to improve air quality and safeguard health in urban areas, while the Düsseldorf court found the bans had to be “seriously examined.”

Due to the ruling, bans could be in place as soon as September 2018.
https://electrek.co/2018/02/27/german-cities-allowed-disel-ban/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3398 on: February 27, 2018, 08:34:25 PM »
All the new driving ban news got me thinking about Los Angeles, California, which used to have very bad smog back in the 1950’s and ‘60’s, but cleaned up its act rather well, despite the years of reluctance to blame visible smog on “invisible” car exhaust.

Here’s an article on how it happened, from 2014:

LA Smog: the battle against air pollution
https://www.marketplace.org/2014/07/14/sustainability/we-used-be-china/la-smog-battle-against-air-pollution
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Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3399 on: February 27, 2018, 08:38:03 PM »
Quote
Self-Driving Cars Are Coming to Lower Manhattan

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Energy Minister calls for banning diesel, gas-based cars in Israel by 2030

The onslaught of headlines in the automotive industry is only PICKING UP SPEED.  And it will...no doubt....affect the oil and gas markets, because investors aren't blind....especially deep pocket investors.

And there are others things tangled up in this as well, because with each and every "event" we have in our "warming world" (2012 Greenland ice melt, 2012 record spring in the US, heat waves in Russia and Europe, etc)..... all those things, bit by bit, chip away at (1) investor sentiment in fossil fuels, and (2) those opposed to doing something about global warming, and (3) the move toward electric vehicles.

The headlines in the automotive world regarding the move towards autonomous electric vehicles is only going to pick up speed.

A big shout out to Sigmetnow for posting the articles (not only on this thread...but throughout).

Times are a changing..... :)
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