Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....  (Read 1472079 times)

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3700 on: April 16, 2018, 12:00:40 AM »
Bob
Any information on how the Tesla's did when the DOD turned off GPS a while back?


In the early days it was instrumental to leave your Magellan on a rock with the bread crumb feature on. You could come back from lunch and see just where your rock had been, and how fast it had been traveling,
Terry

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3701 on: April 16, 2018, 12:04:57 AM »
Haven't heard anything.

Years back I had SatNav on my sailboat.  It worked fine as long as you were in the US but it relied on orbiting satellites and once you got out of the satellite rich area you'd get some strange positioning.

Once, while sitting off the Mexican coast, it told me that I was 30 miles inland.  Another time that I was somewhere in Africa.

Not very usable for blue water cruising.  GPS, however, excellent.

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3702 on: April 16, 2018, 12:17:23 AM »
Trusted my Magellan in the sailboat. Mainly to brag about speed. She'd jump onto a plane on a broad reach and be gone.
Terry

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3703 on: April 16, 2018, 12:44:21 AM »
My Magellan handheld GPS let me safely sail through an area of reefs off Mexico's east coast.  At night.

Without the GPS I wouldn't have taken that route in daylight.

What I'm really enjoying now is using GPS on my phone to get around foreign cities.  Just download the area map and you can guide yourself offline.  It means that I can wander wherever I like and easily relocate myself when I'm ready to head back.

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3704 on: April 16, 2018, 03:21:14 PM »
I just peeked at the Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker and saw that it's estimating about 3,000 cars per week now. Compare to 2,000 cars per week at the end of March (just three weeks ago).

Seems Tesla have finally hit their stride.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3705 on: April 16, 2018, 05:18:31 PM »
I just peeked at the Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker and saw that it's estimating about 3,000 cars per week now. Compare to 2,000 cars per week at the end of March (just three weeks ago).

Seems Tesla have finally hit their stride.

I think the ~3,000/week number is their 3-week trend average.  Their graph looks closer to 4,000!
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3706 on: April 16, 2018, 06:15:36 PM »
Yes, Tesla and Mobileye went separate ways when their incompatibly-different objectives led to a rather ugly breakup: 
https://electrek.co/2016/09/15/tesla-vision-mobileye-tesla-autopilot/


I don’t recall any major crisis when the GPS went down — at least nothing on the scale of when the AT&T network went down. (Communicating with the MotherShip is important.)  Tesla uses a combination of GPS, internal maps, and each car’s sensors to navigate the world, so the temporary loss of GPS should not be crippling. 

But Tesla navigation has fallen behind the times — so there is much rejoicing these days as the company is rolling out a completely new system, built in-house:

Back in July, we reported that Tesla has been working on revamping its maps and navigation system with its own maps using new open source modules from MapBox and Valhalla.
First look at Tesla’s new navigation engine
https://electrek.co/2018/03/30/tesla-new-navigation-engine/

https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/first-look-teslas-new-navigation-engine

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3707 on: April 16, 2018, 06:41:26 PM »
Suppliers say Tesla wants them to be ready to start Model Y (the small SUV/crossover) production in late 2019.  The car (last we heard) will be based on the Model 3 design, so as to bring it to production as quickly as possible.  Thus, production will probably occur at the Fremont factory, to start — but a new factory, for increasing volumes, is likely. 

Tesla is reportedly targeting Model Y production in November 2019, supply chain sources say
https://electrek.co/2018/04/11/tesla-reportedly-targets-november-2019-model-y-production/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3708 on: April 16, 2018, 06:42:40 PM »
I just peeked at the Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker and saw that it's estimating about 3,000 cars per week now. Compare to 2,000 cars per week at the end of March (just three weeks ago).

Seems Tesla have finally hit their stride.

I think the ~3,000/week number is their 3-week trend average.  Their graph looks closer to 4,000!

3,000 Model 3s per week selling at an average of $40,000 and 100,000 MS and MX selling at an average of $90,000 - all with an average gross profit margin means a profit of $3 billion from vehicle manufacturing and puts Tesla in the black.

Shutting up the "Tesla is going bankrupt" negabirds up would be a fine thing to see.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3709 on: April 16, 2018, 06:56:33 PM »
Musk projection:  The profit from the Model 3 will pay for the rollout of the Model Y.

Negabirds perception:  Tesla keeps burning through all of its cash!  Bankrupcty is certain!
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4606
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 879
  • Likes Given: 826
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3710 on: April 16, 2018, 07:38:36 PM »
Quote
I think the ~3,000/week number is their 3-week trend average.  Their graph looks closer to 4,000!
That nearly 4,000 units is "trend" beyond today, projecting the recent rate of increase into the future.  TESLA say the increase will happen in June, keeping at 3,000/week until then, IIRC.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3711 on: April 16, 2018, 08:33:14 PM »
Thanks Sig.
The worst crash I recall is when the ATM's went out in the mid '80's. Totally shut down Las Vegas. Couldn't cash a check, use a card, buy a loaf of bread or call a cab. The fragility of what passes for normal was exposed.
I think my RIM uses both the American GPS and the Russian system for navigation, but I wouldn't swear to it.


Bob
Any idea what the net profit is on each model 3 FOB say LA or NYC?


Actually does anyone have the profit figures per vehicle for any of the majors?


Curious
Terry


Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3712 on: April 16, 2018, 08:37:07 PM »
In case some may have not been tracking Tesla lost about $2 billion last year as they ramped up M3 and Gigafactory production.  In 2015 and 2016 they lost just under $1 billion per year.

3,000 M3s per week and a $3 billion vehicle manufacturing profit should make it easy to set up MY and semi-tractor manufacturing from their cash flow.

Looks like the Tesla rocket is taking off. 

The Tesla 3 may be already outselling all the other cars in its class in the US.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3713 on: April 16, 2018, 08:46:54 PM »
Here are Tesla's gross profit margins per quarter starting in 2014.  Until the last half of 2017 when lots of money went into starting up M3 production Tesla was averaging over 20% GPM per quarter.  That would mean that they were making something over $14k on a $90k MS or MX.

Musk has said that he expects a 25% GPM on the M3 once production problems are ironed out.  That would be $10k on a $40k car.  There are sales and administration costs on top of the cost of manufacturing which is used to calculate the GPM but as production levels rise the amount per car drops.

Once things are running smoothly I suspect Tesla could drop the starting price of the M3 to under $30k and start eating the Camry/Accord market. 



Dec. 31, 2017   13.34%
Sept. 30, 2017   15.05%
June 30, 2017   23.90%
March 31, 2017   24.77%
Dec. 31, 2016   19.05%
Sept. 30, 2016   27.70%
June 30, 2016   21.64%
March 31, 2016   22.01%
Dec. 31, 2015   18.00%
Sept. 30, 2015   24.71%
June 30, 2015   22.34%
March 31, 2015   27.67%
Dec. 31, 2014   27.36%
Sept. 30, 2014   29.57%
June 30, 2014   27.69%
March 31, 2014   25.00%

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3714 on: April 16, 2018, 09:33:55 PM »
$10K/unit or 30k/wk or $1,500,000 at present production levels?


$1.5M/an
minus
- prep
- Transportation
- Sales, including commission, offices, and communication
- Advertizing
- Warranty work
- factory maintenance
- robot maintenance
Assuming that the secretaries, lobbyists, lawyers, internet and utility costs were taken care of in Eldon's GPM figures, there is still not a lot for the investors to fight over.  ???


Terry

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3715 on: April 16, 2018, 09:56:44 PM »
10k per unit is $30M per week. But don't forget the 1k deposit, so $27M per week of gross cash flow and ~350M per quarter. Not small change, but is it enough? Hope so.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3716 on: April 16, 2018, 09:57:01 PM »
$10K/unit or 30k/wk or $1,500,000 at present production levels?


$1.5M/an
minus
- prep
- Transportation
- Sales, including commission, offices, and communication
- Advertizing
- Warranty work
- factory maintenance
- robot maintenance
Assuming that the secretaries, lobbyists, lawyers, internet and utility costs were taken care of in Eldon's GPM figures, there is still not a lot for the investors to fight over.  ???


Terry

25% of a $40k sale = $10k.  At 3,000 M3s per week Tesla should be generating $30,000,000 per week in profits from the factory.  Plus GPB from about 100,000 MX/MS per year and which have about a double sized profit per unit.

That's a big bucket of money that can be used to cover those other things you list.

There are no sales commissions.  Nor advertising costs. 

Robot/plant maintenance is part of the cost to manufacture.  Comes out before the GPM is calculated.

Administrative staff is not part of the cost of manufacturing.  It's post GPM

Utility costs would be divided between energy used to manufacture and energy used outside of manufacturing.  Most would be inside the plant so paid before the GPM is calculated.

At 5,000 M3s per week GPM earnings should be around $4 billion per year.  My numbers are likely conservative.  I think Musk has talked about $6 billion per year when production goals for the M3 are reached.  For example, I used a 20% GPM whereas he has estimated 25%.

Then add in earnings from storage sales (those great big grid smoothing batteries and PowerWalls), solar panel and solar tile sales/installation, and the semi- which is piling up the pre-manufacturing sales. 

Looks like the MY might be a real thing in about 18 months.  And the Roadster II not long after.  Mo money, honey....

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3717 on: April 16, 2018, 09:59:02 PM »
10k per unit is $30M per week. But don't forget the 1k deposit, so $27M per week of gross cash flow and ~350M per quarter. Not small change, but is it enough? Hope so.

Deposits don't count toward profit/loss.  They're just a cheap way to borrow money (assuming they aren't placed in an escrow/impound account).


oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3718 on: April 16, 2018, 10:21:44 PM »
10k per unit is $30M per week. But don't forget the 1k deposit, so $27M per week of gross cash flow and ~350M per quarter. Not small change, but is it enough? Hope so.

Deposits don't count toward profit/loss.  They're just a cheap way to borrow money (assuming they aren't placed in an escrow/impound account).
True. But when a company is at risk of running out of cash, or needing access to the capital markets, cash flow is the most important metric.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3719 on: April 16, 2018, 10:25:15 PM »
Tesla has plenty cash.  Especially if they are now producing 3,000 M3s per week.  Cash starts flowing in.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3720 on: April 17, 2018, 12:23:57 AM »
Quote
I think the ~3,000/week number is their 3-week trend average.  Their graph looks closer to 4,000!
That nearly 4,000 units is "trend" beyond today, projecting the recent rate of increase into the future.  TESLA say the increase will happen in June, keeping at 3,000/week until then, IIRC.

Well, they surely make it look like the ramp is reaching the ‘vertical’ part of the S-curve! 
Which Musk said would definitely happen, but the difficulty was in predicting exactly when.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 0
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 0
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3724 on: April 17, 2018, 04:55:44 PM »
Tesla could now own 100% of an electric car factory in China, says government
Quote
A week after Chinese President Xi Jinping announced a reversal of his administration’s position regarding the steep tariff for foreign automakers in China, the Chinese government officially started phasing out the restriction on foreign automakers’ ownership of local car factory.

The change opens the door for Tesla to have its own factory in China as soon as this year.

The National Development and Reform Commission (via AP) confirmed that “all ownership restrictions will be lifted,” over a five-year transition period, but the restriction for electric vehicle producers will be the first to go as soon as this year.
...

Electrek says:
Quote
Tesla was smart to hold off on pulling the trigger on a Chinese factory.

Virtually every other foreign automaker already made deals to create joint-ventures in China for electric vehicles over the last year in preparation for the country’s zero-emission vehicle mandate, which starts next year.

They had to do so in order to quickly increase EV production and not be penalized for the current gas-powered car business in China.

Tesla was the only automaker able to hold out since it doesn’t have a gas-powered car business to worry about. That allowed them to wait out the storm until reaching a deal for a wholly owned factory, which now seems possible.


Therefore, it wasn’t a big issue for China to lift the restriction, at least for electric vehicles, since most other automakers already complied to the ownership restriction due to the urgency that the ZEV mandate created.

It’s hard to believe that it is only a coincidence. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/04/17/tesla-china-factory-ownership/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4606
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 879
  • Likes Given: 826
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3725 on: April 17, 2018, 05:13:19 PM »
Model 3 Production Line Skids to a Halt for Tesla
Bloomberg - 2018-04-16

Quote
  • CEO has acknowledged using too many robots at assembly plant
  • Downtime will improve automation, ease bottlenecks, Tesla says
Quote
The shutdown is taking place a week after Musk gave CBS This Morning a tour of Tesla’s assembly plant and said the company should be able to sustain producing 2,000 Model 3 sedans a week. He said manufacturing issues that had been crimping output were being resolved and that Tesla probably will make three or four times as many of the cars in the second quarter.
So, I conclude, the 3000/week was not planned to be a steady output rate, but in June plan for a 6-8000/week rate.  I recall previously reading a 5000/week June goal, with a 2500-3000/week goal in the meantime.  Plans change (in the details), but the Q2 total goal may not have changed much.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3726 on: April 17, 2018, 05:42:16 PM »
BNEF Talk: The Future of Electric Vehicles
https://about.bnef.com/future-energy-summit/new-york-overview/?vid=264153718
The slides here:
https://twitter.com/colinmckerrache/status/985921291973746690

Do they say anything interesting?
How should I know what you find interesting?

Tell us what you found interesting and why you think we should spend time opening the link. 

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3727 on: April 17, 2018, 05:48:26 PM »
...
So, I conclude, the 3000/week was not planned to be a steady output rate, but in June plan for a 6-8000/week rate.  I recall previously reading a 5000/week June goal, with a 2500-3000/week goal in the meantime.  Plans change (in the details), but the Q2 total goal may not have changed much.

The goal is 5,000/week rate for Model 3 by end of June.  However, there is also the looming 200,000 cars-sold-in-US tax rebate clock trigger, which is best pushed to July.  So another “planned” shutdown now that decreases output temporarily, and perhaps helps production of Model 3 alterations needed for Canada and other countries, will only help matters.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3511
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 899
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3728 on: April 17, 2018, 06:21:04 PM »
I think this stop was planned. Remember they had that Grohmann machine coming in. I don't believe it was installed during the last pause and it might be installed now. According to official statements the Grohmann machine should be worth 2000-2500 extra cars a week.

http://ir.tesla.com/secfiling.cfm?filingid=1564590-18-1786&CIK=1318605

Quote
The “2,000 to 2,500” units per week cited in this comment refers solely to the capacity of the additional automated battery module manufacturing equipment that is currently located in Germany, and not to Tesla’s total Model 3 production run rate or to the capacity of the automated battery module equipment that is already present at Gigafactory 1.  Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is not dependent on the additional equipment that is currently located in Germany, as that equipment is expected to start ramping production during Q2 2018.  With respect to battery module production, Tesla’s ability to meet its target of 2,500 per week by end of Q1 2018 is dependent only on the equipment that is already present at Gigafactory 1, as well as the incremental capacity that is currently being added through the semi-automated lines that were also discussed during the conference call.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3729 on: April 17, 2018, 07:07:21 PM »
I think the Grohmann machinery was for battery pack production in the Gigafactory.

The upcoming shutdown in the car factory has, I think, to do with a poorly designed conveyor belt system that moves parts to assembly points.  The car factory shutdown has to do with making changes to the belt system.

(The above not to be taken as infallible.)

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3511
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 899
  • Likes Given: 206
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3730 on: April 17, 2018, 07:46:45 PM »
That makes sense. The Grohmann equipment was for Gigafactory not for Fremont.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3731 on: April 17, 2018, 09:24:01 PM »
What I found most interesting is the “much smaller cable cross-section than the traditional high-powered cable option. These cooled cables are thinner, more flexible, lighter and easier to handle.”

 But really, how much longer do we need to make chargers look like gas pumps?  ::)

VW’s Electrify America unveils 4 different ultra-fast charging stations for its massive network
https://electrek.co/2018/04/17/vw-electrify-america-ultra-fast-charging-stations/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3732 on: April 17, 2018, 09:38:26 PM »
What I found most interesting is the “much smaller cable cross-section than the traditional high-powered cable option. These cooled cables are thinner, more flexible, lighter and easier to handle.”

But really, how much longer do we need to make chargers look like gas pumps::)

VW’s Electrify America unveils 4 different ultra-fast charging stations for its massive network
https://electrek.co/2018/04/17/vw-electrify-america-ultra-fast-charging-stations/


If we made them look like chipmunks people would just laugh.
Terry

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3733 on: April 17, 2018, 11:07:25 PM »
What I found most interesting is the “much smaller cable cross-section than the traditional high-powered cable option. These cooled cables are thinner, more flexible, lighter and easier to handle.”

 But really, how much longer do we need to make chargers look like gas pumps?  ::)

VW’s Electrify America unveils 4 different ultra-fast charging stations for its massive network
https://electrek.co/2018/04/17/vw-electrify-america-ultra-fast-charging-stations/

I suspect as we move to self-driving cars our chargers will change shape.  They'll probably be located along the (front?) fender of the car and look more like a simple box.  An arm will extend from the box and plug into the car.

Our cars will drop us off at the cafe, park, museum, wherever and take themselves for a charge.  Coming back to pick us up when we request.


Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3734 on: April 17, 2018, 11:44:51 PM »
What I found most interesting is the “much smaller cable cross-section than the traditional high-powered cable option. These cooled cables are thinner, more flexible, lighter and easier to handle.”

But really, how much longer do we need to make chargers look like gas pumps::)

VW’s Electrify America unveils 4 different ultra-fast charging stations for its massive network
https://electrek.co/2018/04/17/vw-electrify-america-ultra-fast-charging-stations/


If we made them look like chipmunks people would just laugh.
Terry

 ;D  Perfect!  I’d argue that’s exactly what we need more of, these days!  ;D
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3735 on: April 17, 2018, 11:51:44 PM »
How about looking like toads?  The extending charge arm could be made to look like tongues.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3736 on: April 17, 2018, 11:55:19 PM »
Kickass email from Elon to the troops!  Production going 24/7 with a new shift, hiring 400 per week for a few weeks. Focus on quality and profit as quantity increases; suppliers need to prove they can build 6,000/week no later than June 30.

Tesla Model 3 production aims for 6,000 units per week in June after upgrade in May – ~5,000 with margin of error, says Elon Musk
Quote
In an email to employees today, Tesla CEO Elon Musk explained that the reason for the Model 3 production shutdown in Fremont and Gigafactory 1 is to prepare to increase production.

He explained that they are now aiming for a production of 6,000 units per week across all production processes and suppliers in order to achieve 5,000 units per week in June after accounting for a margin of error. ...

Quote
... Starting today at Giga and tomorrow at Fremont, we will be stopping for three to five days to do a comprehensive set of upgrades. This should set us up for Model 3 production of 3000 to 4000 per week next month.

Another set of upgrades starting in late May should be enough to unlock production capacity of 6000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of June. Please note that all areas of Tesla and our suppliers will be required to demonstrate a Model 3 capacity of ~6000/week by building 850 sets of car parts in 24 hours no later than June 30th.

Any Tesla department or supplier that is unable to do this will need to have a very good explanation why not, along with a plan for fixing the problem and present that to me directly. If anyone needs help achieving this, please let me know as soon as possible. We are going to find a way or make a way to get there.
...
https://electrek.co/2018/04/17/tesla-model-3-production-goal-6000-units-per-week/
Full email (it’s long!) at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3737 on: April 18, 2018, 12:01:30 AM »
How about looking like toads?  The extending charge arm could be made to look like tongues.

 And people laughed at Elon‘s planned supercharger site with a drive-in restaurant and movie clips, and servers on rollerskates.  (Which is has had permits approved for, by the way!)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3738 on: April 18, 2018, 02:44:32 AM »
Kickass email from Elon to the troops!

Full email (it’s long!) at the link.
Thanks for that. Very interesting.
Reading between the lines, I think Elon has decided to conserve cash in the next few months. (Which I find a good thing, as it ensures company survivability should nasty surprises come along).
Quote
A fair criticism leveled at Tesla by outside critics is that you’re not a real company unless you generate a profit, meaning simply that revenue exceeds costs. It didn’t make sense to do that until reaching economies of scale, but now we are there.

Going forward, we will be far more rigorous about expenditures. I have asked the Tesla finance team to comb through every expense worldwide, no matter how small, and cut everything that doesn’t have a strong value justification.

All capital or other expenditures above a million dollars, or where a set of related expenses may accumulate to a million dollars over the next 12 months, should be considered on hold until explicitly approved by me. If you are the manager responsible, please make sure you have a detailed, first principles understanding of the supplier quote, including every line item of parts & labor, before we meet.

I have been disappointed to discover how many contractor companies are interwoven throughout Tesla. Often, it is like a Russian nesting doll of contractor, subcontractor, sub-subcontractor, etc. before you finally find someone doing actual work. This means a lot of middle-managers adding cost but not doing anything obviously useful. Also, many contracts are essentially open time & materials, not fixed price and duration, which creates an incentive to turn molehills into mountains, as they never want to end the money train.

There is a very wide range of contractor performance, from excellent to worse than a drunken sloth. All contracting companies should consider the coming week to be a final opportunity to demonstrate excellence. Any that fail to meet the Tesla standard of excellence will have their contracts ended on Monday.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20381
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3739 on: April 18, 2018, 05:57:57 PM »

Quote
A fair criticism leveled at Tesla by outside critics is that you’re not a real company unless you generate a profit, meaning simply that revenue exceeds costs. It didn’t make sense to do that until reaching economies of scale, but now we are there.

Going forward, we will be far more rigorous about expenditures. I have asked the Tesla finance team to comb through every expense worldwide, no matter how small, and cut everything that doesn’t have a strong value justification.


Generate profit in the long-term? Of course.

But I remember Amazon in the early days - it didn't half gobble up cash for years and years, not only making losses but with pathetic sales. What saved Amazon's bacon was not the brilliance of the boss - but at last Broadband hit the internet in a big way, making on-line shopping etc etc viable, and for many people (NOT ME) pleasurable.

Tesla is in a much better place. All Musk has to do is make sure he does not spread himself too thinly - someone needs to tell him again and again - "Mars can wait!"
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3740 on: April 18, 2018, 06:02:52 PM »
EVs:  not just for rich snobs anymore.

VW’s Electrify America partners with Walmart for the deployment of its ‘ultra-fast’ charging stations
https://electrek.co/2018/04/18/vw-electrify-america-walmart-ultra-fast-charging-stations/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3741 on: April 18, 2018, 06:09:13 PM »

...
Tesla is in a much better place. All Musk has to do is make sure he does not spread himself too thinly - someone needs to tell him again and again - "Mars can wait!"

Musk has said the only reason for him to continue accumulating wealth is to fund his Mars mission. So, consider it another of his motivations for assuring Tesla is a long-term success. ;)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3742 on: April 18, 2018, 07:32:35 PM »
SpaceX probably makes Tesla more successful.

There's cache.  Owning a car built by the guy who is about to colonize Mars.

There's technology sharing.  Part of Tesla's high safety rating comes from SpaceX technology that creates aluminum crumple resistance in Tesla's doors.  SpaceX is about to install a network of low orbit satellites that will be used by Tesla cars.

Running both (several, actually) companies is doable.  You make sure you stay on top of what is happening in each and turn most of your attention to one of the companies when it reaches a critical point.  Right now the emphasis is on upgrading machinery at the Fremont car factory and battery packaging process in Reno.  That should be done in about two weeks.  Then it will be time to focus on something different while auto production rates double.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3743 on: April 19, 2018, 01:43:34 AM »
Oregon State is running a survey on people’s feelings about autonomous cars, should you wish to participate:  http://oregonstate.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_3CQwgWUjucRruG9
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3744 on: April 19, 2018, 03:39:02 PM »
Here’s a longread on the critical nature of autonomous driving data, from The Verge:

HOW TESLA AND WAYMO ARE TACKLING A MAJOR PROBLEM FOR SELF-DRIVING CARS: DATA
https://www.theverge.com/transportation/2018/4/19/17204044/tesla-waymo-self-driving-car-data-simulation


Tesla recently sent out a software update that included a request to gather anonymous video clips from the car:

Tesla Autopilot starts collecting videos from Model 3’s cameras in push for self-driving data
https://electrek.co/2018/04/18/tesla-autopilot-model-3-video-camera-self-driving-data/

Here’s some examples of what Tesla’s latest Autopilot update can do:
Tesla Autopilot keeps impressing owners with its latest software update
https://electrek.co/2018/03/19/tesla-autopilot-software-update-videos/



And for comparison, here’s what “a guy in his garage” came up with a couple years ago.  It was usable for one car model, which he meant to be offered for sale to the public, but he ran into governmental safety requirements:

George ‘geohot’ Hotz revives his aftermarket Tesla Autopilot-like product, releases new teaser
https://electrek.co/2016/11/30/george-hotz-aftermarket-tesla-autopilot-comma-one/

Geohot Takes On Tesla Autopilot From His Garage
https://cleantechnica.com/2015/12/19/geohot-takes-tesla-autopilot-garage/



All to say, “self-driving” technology has been around for a while, and keeps improving, particularly in “geo-fenced” areas or highways that are precisely mapped... but unlimited replacement of human drivers is not there yet.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3745 on: April 19, 2018, 04:56:01 PM »
Quote
All to say, “self-driving” technology has been around for a while, and keeps improving, particularly in “geo-fenced” areas or highways that are precisely mapped... but unlimited replacement of human drivers is not there yet.

There was something on NPR a few days ago about a company that has started testing self-driving 18 wheelers on highways.  They see programming for major highways much simpler than for minor roads.

Their approach is for their trucks to drive themselves the majority of the time on highways and then have remote drivers take over and drive the surface roads from 'cubicles'.  Much like how drones are flown.

They were interviewing one of the remote drivers who was talking about how much better the job was since he could live at home and work a regular eight hour shift.  He said that as a driver he was frequently out for 20 or so days at a time, living in his truck, and being home only 2 days in between driving periods.

I assume they've converted some diesel tractors to self-driving.  They have some number of trucks on the road with a backup driver behind the wheel.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3746 on: April 19, 2018, 07:39:16 PM »
Quote
All to say, “self-driving” technology has been around for a while, and keeps improving, particularly in “geo-fenced” areas or highways that are precisely mapped... but unlimited replacement of human drivers is not there yet.

There was something on NPR a few days ago about a company that has started testing self-driving 18 wheelers on highways.  They see programming for major highways much simpler than for minor roads.

Their approach is for their trucks to drive themselves the majority of the time on highways and then have remote drivers take over and drive the surface roads from 'cubicles'.  Much like how drones are flown.
...

Here’s one example:
https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/28/starsky-robotics-autonomous-transport-trucks-also-give-drivers-remote-control/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3747 on: April 19, 2018, 07:43:11 PM »
For those interested, the Tesla Q1 2018 financial results report and conference call will happen Wednesday, May 2.

Quote
Tesla has announced the date for the release of its first quarter 2018 financial results report; as well as its following earnings call.

As could be seen in a recent announcement on its Investors’ Relations page, Tesla would be posting its financial results for Q1 2018 after the market closes on Wednesday, May 2, 2018. The company would also be issuing a brief advisory with a link to its 2018 Q1 Update Letter, which will be available in ir.tesla.com. Tesla will hold a live Q&A session later during the day at 2:30 p.m. PST (5:30 p.m. EST), in order to discuss the electric car and energy company’s financial and business results during the quarter, as well as its outlook. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-q1-2018-financial-results-earnings-call-webcast-date/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20381
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3748 on: April 20, 2018, 11:26:27 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/apr/19/e-vehicles-electric-cars-uk-sales-rise-norway-china

Quote
Sales of electric cars in the UK have risen 11% on last year, putting the country in the premier league of those ditching petrol and diesel engines, though it is still miles behind Norway and China.

An analysis of the latest global sales of electric vehicles found that nearly half the vehicles registered in Norway in the first three months of 2018 were electric (48%), compared to just over a third (35%) during the same period in 2017. The vehicles are run almost exclusively off the nation’s hydropower resource, underlining Norway’s claim as the world leader.

China’s raw numbers were the most impressive, even if the total market share of e-vehicles was only 2% of new registrations.

In the first quarter of 2018, 142,445 electric vehicles – private cars, lorries, trucks and buses – were sold in China, a 154% increase on the previous year.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sebastian Jones

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 716
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 214
  • Likes Given: 158
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3749 on: April 20, 2018, 12:50:53 PM »
A Canadian company, inspired by the move towards self driving cars and trucks has developed a self driving bike: http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thisisthat/first-there-was-the-driverless-car-now-there-is-a-riderless-bike-1.3644515