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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3750 on: April 20, 2018, 09:59:48 PM »
Will Uber and Lyft make ‘car cutting’ the new cord cutting?
A growing number of consumers are foregoing car ownership thanks to the accessibility of car- and ride-sharing services
Quote
Around 9% of people who sold or traded in a vehicle over the past year decided to forego getting a new car in favor of using services like Uber and Lyft, a poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos found last May. ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/will-uber-and-lyft-make-car-cutting-the-new-cord-cutting-2018-04-20


Lyft will invest ‘millions’ in effort to become completely carbon neutral
The plan is to offset over a million metric tons of carbon
Quote
Lyft announced a multimillion-dollar investment to become a completely carbon-neutral transportation service. The ride-hailing company said on Thursday that it would purchase an undisclosed number of carbon offsets, which are investments in environmental projects elsewhere to balance out Lyft’s own carbon footprint. In the first year alone, Lyft says it anticipates offsetting “over a million metric tons of carbon.” ...
https://www.theverge.com/2018/4/19/17254902/lyft-carbon-neutral-offset-3degrees
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3751 on: April 20, 2018, 11:10:14 PM »
Lyft is partially owned by GM.

GM intends to start running self-driving taxis (probably with a human safety driver) in SF this year.

As soon as some company can demonstrate a reliable self-driving taxi, even if it is only in well-mapped parts of cities, look for the floodgates to open.  Uber has already tried to pre-purchase 500,000 self-driving EVs.

ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3752 on: April 21, 2018, 06:30:25 PM »
Hopefully this is an example of increasing electric heavy equipment. JCB now sells a small excavator which is battery electric.

https://www.jcb.com/en-gb/campaigns/2018/electric-mini-excavator/electric-mini-excavator

Start small and expand when battery energy density increases and cost decreases.

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3753 on: April 21, 2018, 06:49:24 PM »
An image gallery I found on reddit with slides describing of the new Audi EV:

Audi e-tron Quattro prototype (Drive Train, Battery, Thermal Management, Charging)

https://imgur.com/gallery/tO7Mad3
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3754 on: April 21, 2018, 11:56:16 PM »
Horses, cars, ferries, streetcars, elevated trains. Here’s a look at New York City streets from 1911 in a beautifully restored bit of film.

Immaculately Restored Film Lets You Revisit Life in New York City in 1911
http://www.openculture.com/2018/04/immaculately-restored-film-lets-you-revisit-life-in-new-york-city-in-1911.html
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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3755 on: April 22, 2018, 04:26:35 PM »
For Tesla followers (who don't have it already) here is the link to the Bloomberg Tracker (no paywall or sign-in needed)

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Latest Updates By Tom Randall and Dean Halford Updated at: April 22, 2018

19,160 Total cars
2,733   Per week
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3756 on: April 22, 2018, 06:24:19 PM »
For Tesla followers (who don't have it already) here is the link to the Bloomberg Tracker (no paywall or sign-in needed)

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Latest Updates By Tom Randall and Dean Halford Updated at: April 22, 2018

19,160 Total cars
2,733   Per week

An internal email sent to employees by Musk states that production should rise to the 3,000 to 4,000 per week range in May.  And move into the 5,000 to 6,000 range in June.

Good chance the Bloomberg chart is not going to be predictive.  Looks like Elon is expecting a huge production jump.

gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3757 on: April 22, 2018, 07:11:47 PM »
For Tesla followers (who don't have it already) here is the link to the Bloomberg Tracker (no paywall or sign-in needed)

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Latest Updates By Tom Randall and Dean Halford Updated at: April 22, 2018

19,160 Total cars
2,733   Per week

An internal email sent to employees by Musk states that production should rise to the 3,000 to 4,000 per week range in May.  And move into the 5,000 to 6,000 range in June.

Good chance the Bloomberg chart is not going to be predictive.  Looks like Elon is expecting a huge production jump.

What Bloomberg (and we) don't know is the deals he has done with his suppliers and the upgrades to his production facilities - in timing and capacity.

The strength of Bloomberg's analysis is that this is becoming real large scale production, the nay-sayers will be eating crow by mid-summer.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3758 on: April 22, 2018, 07:26:59 PM »
We're at a point in time when energy and transportation are starting to change at exponential rates. 

Many of the organizations and individuals who make predictions use the 'straight edge' method.  They do the equivalent of laying a ruler along the historical slope and draw a straight line into the future.

If one does not look at most recent developments, new and improved technologies, and rapidly changing prices and factor them into predictions then those predictions will fail. 

Making a prediction based on the straight edge method creates a relatively safe prediction, things are not likely to get worse.  But if current trends are not incorporated the prediction has no predictive value.

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3759 on: April 22, 2018, 10:01:52 PM »
Tesla Model S Crushes Luxury Car Competition In USA

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/22/tesla-model-s-crushes-luxury-car-competition-in-usa/

Quote
Out of 10 large luxury car models, the Tesla Model S gobbled up a notable 34% of sales. The Mercedes S-Class trailed it most closely with 23% of sales.
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3760 on: April 22, 2018, 10:19:22 PM »
Electric buses cheaper than diesel, says C40 report

https://cities-today.com/electric-buses-cheaper-than-diesel-says-c40-report/

Quote
Total lifetime costs of electric buses can already be a cheaper option for cities compared to today’s conventional buses, says a new C40 report.
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numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3761 on: April 22, 2018, 10:44:41 PM »
The naysayers will still be naysaying in mid-summer. They’ve been saying nay for years, why stop now? They Will find a reason — probably crowing about how Tesla has a multi-year backlog and thus is on the verge of bankruptcy.

The production rate this past week was about zero. The sustained rate before this week-long shutdown seems to be over 2,000 a week for the model 3, and about the same for S&X combined. After, we’ll see; I presume much higher.

ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3762 on: April 22, 2018, 11:02:22 PM »
Quote
After, we’ll see; I presume much higher.
Since they are now adding a third shift to get to 24/7 production they'll increase output 50% even if there are no improvements to the line.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3763 on: April 23, 2018, 01:01:00 AM »
The auto industry desperately wants a chunk of the huge Chinese car market.  But the Chinese government is telling them what they must do to get it.

China auto show highlights industry's electric ambitions
Quote
BEIJING (AP) — The biggest global auto show of the year showcases China's ambitions to become a leader in electric cars and the industry's multibillion-dollar scramble to roll out models that appeal to price-conscious but demanding Chinese drivers.

Auto China 2018, which opens this week, follows Beijing's decision to allow full foreign ownership of Chinese automakers in a move to make the industry more flexible as it promotes electrics.

The ruling Communist Party has transformed China into the biggest market for electrics with billions of dollars in subsidies to producers and buyers. Now, Beijing is winding down that support and shifting the financial burden to automakers with sales quotas that push them to develop models Chinese drivers want to buy.

That is reflected in the auto show lineup: Global and Chinese brands including General Motors Co., Volkswagen AG and Nissan Motor Co. plan to display dozens of electrics and hybrids, from luxurious SUVs to compacts priced as low as 152,000 yuan ($24,000).
...
Starting in 2019, automakers will be required to earn credits by selling electrics or else buy them from competitors. More stringent fuel efficiency standards will require a big share of each brand's sales to be non-gasoline models.

Global automakers say electrics should account for 35 to over 50 percent of their China sales by 2025.
...
https://www.chron.com/news/world/article/China-auto-show-highlights-industry-s-electric-12854425.php
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3764 on: April 23, 2018, 01:40:38 AM »
Tesla Model S Crushes Luxury Car Competition In USA

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/04/22/tesla-model-s-crushes-luxury-car-competition-in-usa/

Quote
Out of 10 large luxury car models, the Tesla Model S gobbled up a notable 34% of sales. The Mercedes S-Class trailed it most closely with 23% of sales.

One might be tempted to conclude that “panel gaps” are not the monumentally important factor so many reviewers make them out to be.  ;) ;D
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numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3765 on: April 23, 2018, 03:59:28 AM »
I opened a panel gap on my car this winter by shutting the hood with some ice wedged in the hinge.

I was so devastated that I didn’t drive the car for several minutes (as I tried to wedge a sharp point back down)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3766 on: April 23, 2018, 03:59:57 PM »
April 23:
“#Tesla registered 5,170 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 33466. ...”
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/988407876644290561

That makes 12,885 VINs registered so far in April, compared to 7,846 in all of March. (Not that anyone’s counting. ;) )

Vehicle Identification Numbers give us a hint about expected near-term production. 

Edit:
(Note: production lines in Fremont and Giga were closed several days last week for upgrades.)
« Last Edit: April 23, 2018, 04:05:51 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3767 on: April 23, 2018, 05:50:31 PM »
A lot is being made about Tesla losing money but if one looks into the actual financial activity of the company it turns out the bottom line losses are mostly building and equipment depreciation.



Only 14% of total losses for the previous 5 years comes from operating expenses (administration, R&D, and opening showrooms, service centers and Supercharge stations). 

It won't take much production growth to cover non-depreciation losses.  Then the job will be to further production so that cars sales pay for the buildings and machines that build the cars. 


gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3768 on: April 23, 2018, 09:26:41 PM »
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-23/ferrari-quietly-very-quietly-tests-electric-car

Quote
Ferrari Quietly—Very Quietly—Tests Electric Car
Hybrid engines will be offered on all new models from next year


Two years ago, Sergio Marchionne dubbed the notion of a Ferrari that can run without the aggressive growl of its 12-cylinder engines “obscene.” Today, it’s a reality.

Even Ferrari has had to give way
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #3769 on: April 24, 2018, 03:51:55 PM »
Since the 167 Model S entered service back in 2014, the vehicles have saved more than 2,500 tons of C02 per year.

Tesla Model X fleet replaces 167 Model S taxis for Netherlands airport
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-x-replaces-model-s-taxis-netherlands/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3770 on: April 24, 2018, 04:44:52 PM »
Electric Buses Are Hurting the Oil Industry
• About 279,000 barrels a day of fuel won’t be needed this year
• China adds a London-sized electric bus fleet every five weeks
Quote
The numbers are staggering. China had about 99 percent of the 385,000 electric buses on the roads worldwide in 2017, accounting for 17 percent of the country’s entire fleet. Every five weeks, Chinese cities add 9,500 of the zero-emissions transporters—the equivalent of London’s entire working fleet, according Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
...
For every 1,000 battery-powered buses on the road, about 500 barrels a day of diesel fuel will be displaced from the market, according to BNEF calculations. This year, the volume of fuel buses take off the market may rise 37 percent to 279,000 barrels a day, about as much oil as Greece consumes, according to BNEF.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-04-23/electric-buses-are-hurting-the-oil-industry
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #3771 on: April 24, 2018, 04:56:35 PM »
Washington, DC just added some electric buses.  Give electric buses a couple of years to prove themselves and I think we'll see a rapid disappearance for the diesel 'city' bus. 

Pollution, noise, and cost.  And climate change.  Lots of drivers.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #3772 on: April 24, 2018, 06:04:19 PM »
The effectiveness of regenerative braking varies significantly based on factors including driving conditions, terrain and vehicle size.

Regenerative braking: how it works and is it worth it in small EVs?
Quote
Model S drivers have reported recapturing as much as 32% of their total energy use while driving up and then back downhill. This would effectively increase a 100 mile car’s range to 132 miles, for example. A Model S P85D owner reported approximately 28% energy recapture (forum in Danish) and still others have reported recapturing between 15-20% of their total kWh usage on average during normal trips.
https://electrek.co/2018/04/24/regenerative-braking-how-it-works/
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numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3773 on: April 24, 2018, 06:17:21 PM »
The x axes on that BNEF story about buses are funny. China: 0 to 150k. Europe: 0 to 400.

China is so far ahead on this it’s not even funny.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #3774 on: April 24, 2018, 07:40:02 PM »
The x axes on that BNEF story about buses are funny. China: 0 to 150k. Europe: 0 to 400.

China is so far ahead on this it’s not even funny.

I would love to see an article comparing the Chinese buses to ones built elsewhere.  I suppose overall quality is less important when you are simply striving for breathable air in a city, but how many corners are they cutting?  Are the buses holding up over time?
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #3775 on: April 24, 2018, 07:41:52 PM »
"But the court acted very quickly. The case was only argued a week or two ago. ... I think that conveys that this wasn't even a close case."

Trump's First Salvo in Push to Weaken Vehicle Standards Struck Down by Court
Quote
A federal appeals court in New York on Monday blocked the Trump administration's efforts to delay penalties against automakers that fail to meet carbon-cutting emissions standards in new cars.

A three-judge panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit threw out a decision, announced by the Department of Transportation last July, to postpone increases in the penalties that automakers are required to pay if they don't meet efficiency standards under the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) regulations. 

The Trump administration's attempt to delay the penalties was its first salvo in a crusade to weaken the vehicle standards, which were predicted to prevent billions of tons of climate-warming carbon emissions from newer vehicles. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/23042018/vehicle-efficiency-cafe-standards-carbon-emissions-global-warming-car-pollution-auto-industry-penalties
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #3776 on: April 24, 2018, 07:47:22 PM »
The x axes on that BNEF story about buses are funny. China: 0 to 150k. Europe: 0 to 400.

China is so far ahead on this it’s not even funny.

I would love to see an article comparing the Chinese buses to ones built elsewhere.  I suppose overall quality is less important when you are simply striving for breathable air in a city, but how many corners are they cutting?  Are the buses holding up over time?

Don't assume products built in China are inferior.  Apple's stuff is Chinese made as is most of our consumer electronics.

Early during China's industrialization product quality was often poor.  Same was true of Japan's products coming out of WWII.  But as training and equipment improve quality goes up.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3777 on: April 24, 2018, 08:11:20 PM »
The x axes on that BNEF story about buses are funny. China: 0 to 150k. Europe: 0 to 400.

China is so far ahead on this it’s not even funny.

I would love to see an article comparing the Chinese buses to ones built elsewhere.  I suppose overall quality is less important when you are simply striving for breathable air in a city, but how many corners are they cutting?  Are the buses holding up over time?

Don't assume products built in China are inferior.  Apple's stuff is Chinese made as is most of our consumer electronics.

Early during China's industrialization product quality was often poor.  Same was true of Japan's products coming out of WWII.  But as training and equipment improve quality goes up.

It’s not entirely supposition on my part. I’ve seen a video of a Chinese EV car being reviewed that could not make it up a hill from a standing start.  I do assume that Chinese vehicle requirements are not as stringent as the U.S., which is why we haven’t been flooded with them.  Thus my question as to where on the spectrum these buses fit.  They may work perfectly fine in a city bus setting.
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numerobis

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« Reply #3778 on: April 24, 2018, 09:22:18 PM »
The ones I've seen in pictures look like city buses you'd have anywhere.

I suspect the main reason China has gone so far so fast with electric buses is that they were replacing all their buses anyway. The West is moving iteratively and conservatively: we replace a bus here or there as they break down. China was buying hundreds of thousands of new buses because suddenly hundreds of millions of people had enough money and clout to demand proper mass transit. The latter is a much better market for a new entrant. Throw in a bit of industrial policy favouring electric and there you go.

(Of course, I've ridden on electric buses for ages -- just not battery-electric. Caternary wires are kind of ugly, I look forward to the battery-electric near future of busing.)

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #3779 on: April 24, 2018, 10:16:43 PM »
Along with this latest charging station program, Target says that it is also pushing to have 500 stores with rooftop solar panels by 2020 and “they are working toward a goal to be 100-percent renewable overall.”

Target partners with Tesla, ChargePoint and Electrify America to install over 600 chargers
https://electrek.co/2018/04/24/target-tesla-chargepoint-electrify-america-charging-stations/

Add chargers; attract shoppers who aren’t in a rush to leave. :)
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« Reply #3780 on: April 24, 2018, 10:51:15 PM »
Somewhere I saw a tidbit about Tesla having discussions with the VW/Mercedes rapid charging group about joining up.

That makes a hell of a lot of sense to me.  It would make it more likely to find a rapid charger in the boonies in the near future.

Tesla could still offer no-profit rates to their customers.  But you wouldn't have to exclusively use Tesla stations.

numerobis

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« Reply #3781 on: April 25, 2018, 12:28:09 AM »
EIA bullishly predicts a whole 12% of new cars will be battery-electric by 2050. They could sell as many as 250k plug-in vehicles a year by as early as 2020!

Over here in the real world, there were 200k sold last year, and this year so far we're seeing about 30% better than last year, so we're on track for topping the 2020 figure two years early.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO2018.pdf

(EIA, so these are US figures, not worldwide.)

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« Reply #3782 on: April 25, 2018, 01:00:32 AM »
I've ridden in Chinese busses in Havana. The most up to date, comfortable busses I've experienced. Can't speak to the underlying quality, but never witnessed one broken down, or in any kind of difficulty.
I'd guess a quality level ~= a high end European auto.
Terry

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3783 on: April 25, 2018, 04:59:40 PM »
Tesla Teardown Shows Tech Prowess, Production Shortcomings
Bloomberg
Quote
The latest knock against Tesla’s production credentials comes from Munro & Associates, a small Detroit-area firm that disassembles new cars and analyzes them down to the nuts and bolts. Founder Sandy Munro has picked apart a Model 3 sedan and praises its battery pack and electronics but pans much of the rest of the vehicle as costly, heavy and poorly built.
...
“Mechanically, I don’t have much good to say,” Munro said last week on “Autoline After Hours,” a Metro Detroit local television show. “If it would have come out even decent, they’d have mopped the floor with everybody. But they didn’t.”
...
The Model 3 has great battery design and industry-leading electronics, according to Munro, who will elaborate on his findings at an Automotive Press Association briefing on Wednesday. Its packs are better in terms of power and efficiency than those built by Samsung SDI Co. or LG Chem Ltd., he said. The two companies supply the batteries for BMW AG’s i3 and General Motor Co.’s Chevrolet Bolt electric cars.

The circuit boards in Tesla’s newest sedan also are on par in terms of complexity with those used in cell phones, high-end computers or military fighter jets, Munro said. Other carmakers should take notice.

“This is not some Mickey Mouse outfit that you can just dismiss,” he said. “Ignore Tesla’s electronics, and you’re in peril.”
...
The silver lining for Tesla is that the company’s biggest weakness might be fixable: there are plenty of experts available to get Tesla’s factory humming.

“They have a hard time with what I would classify as the dinosaur technologies, the mechanical stuff,” Munro said. “There are hundreds of us in the field that could help them fix that. I hope they pick one.”

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3784 on: April 25, 2018, 05:10:41 PM »
Sounds like an OFF switch. ;) ;D No word on how it affects fuel efficiency or “driving experience,” which were the reasons given behind the emissions testing cheat.

Bosch announces emissions breakthrough that could save diesel
Claims nitrogen oxide drops to one-tenth of Europe's strict limits
Quote
Bosch says its technology uses a combination of advanced fuel injection, a newly developed airflow management system to recirculate exhaust gases, and intelligent temperature management, and it requires no additional new components. It says the technology drops nitrogen oxide emissions to one-tenth of the amount set under the stricter 2020 limits for Europe, even in real-world driving conditions. Bosch says the results hold consistent regardless of driving conditions, weather or how aggressively the vehicle is driven.
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/04/25/bosch-diesel-emissions-breakthrough/


Bosch claims a 'breakthrough' that could save diesel engines
Quote
Denner reiterated that Bosch fully cooperates with the relevant authorities. He called for more transparency in emission tests for vehicles with combustion engines as well as electric vehicles to allow a realistic view of the exact impact on the environment.

He said the company is prohibiting technology that recognizes test cycles, and its products aren’t allowed to be optimized for test situations anymore. Regulators have stepped up efforts to narrow the gap between official emission labels based on lab tests and real driving emissions.
http://www.autonews.com/article/20180425/OEM06/180429878/bosch-diesel-breakthrough

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3785 on: April 25, 2018, 07:13:12 PM »
An exciting all-electric and socially responsible Uber-like service is emerging in France
Quote
Youngo is looking to hire drivers with a ‘VTC’ driving license – making them professional drivers who can work for themselves using Youngo’s app.

But on top of the VTC requirements, Youngo is looking to only accept drivers with electric vehicles. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/04/25/youngo-all-electric-socially-responsible-uber-like-service-france/
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Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3786 on: April 26, 2018, 01:44:58 PM »
Ford will stop selling most of its cars in North America

Ford will stop selling most of its cars in North America

Quote
If there was any doubt that the auto industry is rapidly changing, Ford just delivered proof. The industry pioneer is scaling back its North American small car lineup in North America to just two vehicles, the Mustang and the unrevealed Focus Active crossover, in the "next few years." The rest of its range will be limited to SUVs, trucks and commercial vehicles. Ford isn't shy about its reasons: "declining consumer demand and product profitability" make it impractical to develop other sedans. You'd better act quickly if you've been looking at a brand new Fusion or Taurus.

Looks like Ford has been listening to Tony Seba..... :)  And people have finally figured out that cars are nothing more than transportation.  What happens when people figure out that clothes don't have to be Dior ..... and "T shirts" become all the rage?  Inquiring minds want to know.... :)

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/ford-stop-selling-most-cars-235400380.html

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oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3787 on: April 26, 2018, 02:29:43 PM »
I don't get it. Moving from cars to SUVs is good?

Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3788 on: April 26, 2018, 02:57:35 PM »
Quote
I don't get it. Moving from cars to SUVs is good?

The transportation industry is going through a TRANSITION.  There are a few pieces to it:

1)  EV's
2)  Driving service's like Uber
3)  Change in taste/reality.... as driving as a means of getting somewhere (not so much as stauts)
4)  Self Driving cars

I expect FEWER types of cars to be offered over the decade of the 2020's as people look at driving in a different manner.  THAT...will not happen overnight, but I suspect that millenials AND those after them ..... DON'T look at cars as we did and our parents did.

And for car companies like Ford ..... they likely see that they need to DROP the number of different types of cars they offer.  A smaller number of SUV's will fill in for a larger number of sedans ..... but the  retail vehicle models will DROP.

The 4 items I listed above ..... some happen sooner than others.  And some will change SLOWER than others.  But as people drive MORE MILES in "Uber type services" ...... there is clearly LESS NEED for satisfying retail customers desires (because there are fewer retail customers).  And cars are BEGINNING to be looked at as a "means of getting from A to B)" ..... not so much as a status symbol (yes...of course there will be exceptions).

For a company like Ford....and their bottom line ...... they are doing what any reasonable company would do:  Trim back where they AREN'T making money, and focus on where they ARE making money.  So they aren't going to try and fill EVERY SINGLE NICHE like they used to in the retail car market.

And that is actually a good thing for CONSUMERS.....because it should decrease costs to Ford, and SOME of that cost saving should be felt by the consumer.

If you fast forward to 2030....I think the number of different vehicle models offered will be far fewer.


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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3789 on: April 26, 2018, 03:07:04 PM »
I don't get it. Moving from cars to SUVs is good?

For CO2 and other pollutants, a big NO.

Americans buy small cars when the gasoline price goes up, and switch to SUVs, cross-overs and pick-ups when the price goes down. The gasoline price is down so......  the only new car for the USA Ford now plans to introduce is a new version of the Mustang, the muscle-car gas-guzzler.

If Ford get it wrong (i.e. gasoline prices go up,) they will be in shit-creek as these are long-term investment decisions. In other words, Ford has bet the farm on cheap crude being around for a long time. They have also doubled down on that bet on the farm by regarding EVs as a non-core activity.

I think they are stuffed. If I was a Yank I would be making sure none of my 401(k) was in Ford (or GM for that matter ?)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-25/ford-ceo-plans-11-5-billion-more-cuts-pulls-ahead-margin-goal

Quote
Ford is trying to kick-start a turnaround that’s yet to take hold almost a year after the board ousted its chief executive officer. Getting rid of slow-selling, low-margin car models and refocusing the company around more lucrative trucks and SUVs is a crucial element of new CEO Jim Hackett’s rebound bid. By 2020, almost 90 percent of Ford’s North American portfolio will be pickups or sport utility and commercial vehicles.
« Last Edit: April 26, 2018, 03:13:15 PM by gerontocrat »
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JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3790 on: April 26, 2018, 03:38:34 PM »
The car companies are dropping the sedans for crossovers and suv's because that is what the consumers want to buy.  They vehicles are not more efficient than the sedans.  They are bigger (more resources) and less efficient.  This is driven by what makes the companies the most money and it has nothing to do with fixing climate change.

And on that note we can also look to technology developments to sometimes work in favor of the BAU way of doing things.  To wit:  the demise of diesels is far from assured as the below development implies that the drop in sales of diesels will be temporary.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-25/bosch-says-it-s-made-a-breakthrough-that-can-save-diesel-engines
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3791 on: April 26, 2018, 04:27:06 PM »
Agree with Gerontocrat et al. If Ford really does can all its small cars, focus on SUVs and pick ups, and ignore EVs, it will be  nailing its flag to the mast of BAU in a world climate policy vacuum.
In the short term, it may well profit from a focus on its most profitable models, but over the medium and longer term-well, it is going to have to change course or crash.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3792 on: April 26, 2018, 04:52:23 PM »
Crossovers are not necessarily large.  Neither are SUVs.

The Subaru Crosstrek is a small sedan sized crossover.  The Toyota Rav4 and Chevy Tracker are compact SUVs.

Perhaps Ford is going to offer small crossovers and SUVs rather than sedans. 

And did Ford say something about not making EVs?

Ford could be making a smart move.  Perhaps they see EVs grabbing the sedan market first along with a general move from sedans to crossovers.  Perhaps they are going to bring their own "Leaf-killer" EVs to the market.

It sounds like Nissan is going to turn the Leaf into a 300 km, 180 mile range EV that can sell for a mid-$20k price.  If so, that is where volume EV sales are almost certain to go. 

JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3793 on: April 26, 2018, 05:16:59 PM »
A balanced look at the Ford decision. Makes financial sense.  It is not any indication of the end of cars but rather a move to extend their part in our lives as long as possible.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/26/news/companies/ford-suv-shift/index.html
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3794 on: April 26, 2018, 05:29:36 PM »
A balanced look at the Ford decision. Makes financial sense.  It is not any indication of the end of cars but rather a move to extend their part in our lives as long as possible.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/26/news/companies/ford-suv-shift/index.html

From the link -

Quote
today's Ford Escape SUV gets 12% better fuel economy than a four-cylinder Fusion sedan in 2008. Ford's new EcoSport SUV gets the same overall mileage -- actually, better in city driving -- than the Ford Focus compact car of just a decade ago.

Quote
Ford's upcoming Focus Active looks like a hatchback car. But Ford is calling it a crossover.

And there's this -

Quote
Ford just gave an outline for its plan to crank out more hybrids and introduce six electric vehicles by 2022, the first of which will be a performance SUV in 2020.

Quote
“On the F-150 Hybrid, Ford will lean in to capability, such as the low-end torque for extra pulling power and the fact it can serve as a mobile generator,” said Ford in a press release. “Mustang Hybrid will be all about delivering V8-like performance with more low-end torque.”

Quote
“We are confirming that by 2020, the all-new Escape, Explorer and Bronco will arrive and all will be available with hybrid engines,” said a Ford representative in an email to The Drive. “The F-150 Hybrid will also be available by 2020 and the Mustang Hybrid is scheduled to arrive in 2021.”

http://www.thedrive.com/news/19304/ford-to-produce-six-evs-by-2022-and-hybridize-more-models

I expect hybrids will be a good way to ease Bobby Joe and Vern into EVs.  Let them experience the 'snatch and go' power of battery powered electric motors.  Then with their next purchase they'll be more likely to consider a battery powered SUV/pickup.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3795 on: April 26, 2018, 06:08:51 PM »
A balanced look at the Ford decision. Makes financial sense.  It is not any indication of the end of cars but rather a move to extend their part in our lives as long as possible.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/26/news/companies/ford-suv-shift/index.html

Ford seems to be moving the deck chairs a bit higher on the sloping deck of the Titanic. Much smarter than doing *nothing* but not as smart as they could be.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3796 on: April 26, 2018, 06:17:05 PM »
A balanced look at the Ford decision. Makes financial sense.  It is not any indication of the end of cars but rather a move to extend their part in our lives as long as possible.

http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/26/news/companies/ford-suv-shift/index.html

Ford seems to be moving the deck chairs a bit higher on the sloping deck of the Titanic. Much smarter than doing *nothing* but not as smart as they could be.

What part of

Quote
Ford just gave an outline for its plan to crank out more hybrids and introduce six electric vehicles by 2022,

did you not read?

litesong

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3797 on: April 26, 2018, 06:23:46 PM »
Model S drivers have reported recapturing as much as 32% of their total energy use while driving up and then back downhill. This would effectively increase a 100 mile car’s range to 132 miles, for example. A Model S P85D owner reported approximately 28% energy recapture (forum in Danish) and still others have reported recapturing between 15-20% of their total kWh usage on average during normal trips.
https://electrek.co/2018/04/24/regenerative-braking-how-it-works/
[/quote] Yes, EVs are wonderful. However, if the EV battery runs down BEFORE GETTING TO MOUNTAIN PASS TOP, the only way to charge the battery is to turn around & go back down the mountain. AND, it doesn't negate my little 1988 Ford Festiva's excellent 50mpg, while traveling several mountain passes(greatest was 5500 feet on a course from sea level), over a sum total 11,000 feet of ups & downs, on a 400 mile day trip..... no diesel, no hybrid, no turbo, no supercharging...... AND no gassing up. 
« Last Edit: April 26, 2018, 06:33:33 PM by litesong »

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3798 on: April 26, 2018, 06:41:24 PM »
However, if the EV battery runs down BEFORE GETTING TO MOUNTAIN PASS TOP, the only way to charge the battery is to turn around & go back down the mountain.

And if your Festiva runs out of gas before or after getting to the mountain pass top you're facing calling a tow truck or trusting that your brakes won't overheat on the way down and fail.

Hint:  Check fuel level or battery charge before starting the ascent.

gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3799 on: April 26, 2018, 08:07:06 PM »
Yes, EVs are wonderful. However, if the EV battery runs down BEFORE GETTING TO MOUNTAIN PASS TOP, the only way to charge the battery is to turn around & go back down the mountain. AND, it doesn't negate my little 1988 Ford Festiva's excellent 50mpg, while traveling several mountain passes(greatest was 5500 feet on a course from sea level), over a sum total 11,000 feet of ups & downs, on a 400 mile day trip..... no diesel, no hybrid, no turbo, no supercharging...... AND no gassing up.

Did you have a great feeling of achievement that a machine took you up and down a mountain pass or three ?
And what on earth has that got to do with the future of the automobile industry?

Please enlighten me. But please no blah blah about personal freedom of movement etc. We have feet and so far we have not been prohibited from using them.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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