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Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4050 on: May 12, 2018, 08:40:53 PM »
In which way does the middle dancer turn?

She's not turning. The camera is moving around her.  ;D
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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4051 on: May 12, 2018, 09:36:27 PM »
Quote from: Bob Wallace link=topic=438.msg153980#msg153980 date=1 "526084173

Quote
People are going to have to do make significant lifestyle changes if we are going to realistically combat climate change and other environmental issues.

No.  Lifestyles will not need to change.  If that were true then we would totally be screwed

Methinks Zizek is right when he says "People are going to have to do make significant lifestyle changes".
Methinks Bob is right when he says "If that were true then we would totally be screwed".

Fixing CO2 emissions will eventually happen as the economics tell business more and more that that is where the money is. But that will not stop a lot of Global Warming happening in the meantime. But technology can't bring back the passenger pigeon, the right whale and the numerous other species doomed to extinction. Technology can't fix an aquifer once it is broken. Technology can't fix melting of the permafrost and release of methane already baked into the system. Technology cannot stop vast areas of rainforest being cut down for palm-oil plantations. Technology cannot prevent the corruption of political systems allowing greed and stupidity to decide our future.

We are totally screwed.

End of polemic.
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magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4052 on: May 12, 2018, 10:54:28 PM »
In which way does the middle dancer turn?

She's not turning. The camera is moving around her.  ;D

if that's true and depending on the distance that would make it a supersonic camera sled ;) :D
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4053 on: May 12, 2018, 11:18:16 PM »
Quote from: Bob Wallace link=topic=438.msg153980#msg153980 date=1 "526084173

Quote
People are going to have to do make significant lifestyle changes if we are going to realistically combat climate change and other environmental issues.

No.  Lifestyles will not need to change.  If that were true then we would totally be screwed

Methinks Zizek is right when he says "People are going to have to do make significant lifestyle changes".
Methinks Bob is right when he says "If that were true then we would totally be screwed".

Fixing CO2 emissions will eventually happen as the economics tell business more and more that that is where the money is. But that will not stop a lot of Global Warming happening in the meantime. But technology can't bring back the passenger pigeon, the right whale and the numerous other species doomed to extinction. Technology can't fix an aquifer once it is broken. Technology can't fix melting of the permafrost and release of methane already baked into the system. Technology cannot stop vast areas of rainforest being cut down for palm-oil plantations. Technology cannot prevent the corruption of political systems allowing greed and stupidity to decide our future.

We are totally screwed.

End of polemic.

1) We don't know what technology will be able to do.  We have not yet invented a time machine that will let us look a hundred, thousand, or million years into the future.

2) We are screwed to some extent, but probably not totally screwed. It's already apparently the case that some humans are dying due to climate change. It's highly unlikely humans will go extinct.

On a scale of 0 to 10 where 10 is the end of humans (or life on the planet) we're past 0 but we can't determine where we now stand other than somewhere above 0.01.

"Technology can't fix an aquifer once it is broken. "

Wouldn't bet on that.  Stop removing too much water.  Increase flow into the aquifer.

"Technology cannot stop vast areas of rainforest being cut down for palm-oil plantations. Technology cannot prevent the corruption of political systems allowing greed and stupidity to decide our future."

These are not problems that need a technological solution.  They are political problems.  Those of us living in countries with democratically elected leaders can fix those problems with our votes.  And we can elect people who lean on other countries to clean up their acts.

Yes, we are currently driving one of history's great extinction events in which a very large number of species will be lost.  Someone recently stated that humans are about to eliminate all animals larger than cows.

That will be a great loss to those of us who value the diversity of the planet but evolution will create more diversity within the limits of the new climate we are creating.  And, hopefully, technology along with natural carbon sequestering will bring the planet back to something similar to what we had in the middle of the previous century.


TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4054 on: May 12, 2018, 11:33:28 PM »
Tesla's chief engineer takes a vacation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/11/tesla-says-top-vehicle-engineer-doug-field-is-taking-time-off.html

WSJ says for 6 weeks, but Tesla isn't telling. The stress level down there must be amazing.
This is a very strange time for the chief engineer to take a vacation. If things collapse while he's gone he'll come back as a much appreciated hero. If things go well it's evident that he really wasn't needed.

What does he see coming down the pike?
Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4055 on: May 13, 2018, 12:58:19 AM »
Tesla's chief engineer takes a vacation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/11/tesla-says-top-vehicle-engineer-doug-field-is-taking-time-off.html

WSJ says for 6 weeks, but Tesla isn't telling. The stress level down there must be amazing.
This is a very strange time for the chief engineer to take a vacation. If things collapse while he's gone he'll come back as a much appreciated hero. If things go well it's evident that he really wasn't needed.

What does he see coming down the pike?
Terry

The engineering for the MS, MX, and M3 are finished.  All three cars are in production.  The semi and Roadster II have been prototyped.  The MY apparently won't require a huge amount of engineering as it will be built on the M3 sled (IIRC).

This is probably a great time for design engineers to grab a bit of downtime after the incredible amount of effort it has taken to reach this point.

If, as suspected, M3 production is now 3k per week then it's time to kick back and do some back-patting.  Sit on the beach with a cold one and smile.




Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4056 on: May 13, 2018, 01:45:35 AM »
We have joked on this thread about what a super-duper, uber-ultra-fast high-voltage charger might look like. ;) Here’s what Chargepoint came up with (but it’s for trucks and planes, not cars). 

ChargePoint unveils new 2-MW charger for electric aircraft and semi-trucks
https://electrek.co/2018/05/10/chargepoint-2-mw-charger-electric-aircraft-and-semi-trucks/


And here’s an update on the Tesla supercharger network:
Tesla Supercharger network grows at record pace in 2018 as competition heats up
https://electrek.co/2018/05/12/tesla-supercharger-2018-growth/
 
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ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4057 on: May 13, 2018, 04:22:44 AM »
Quote
What does he see coming down the pike?
Terry
Tough to know but there is precedent at Tesla where top people took time off and came back. From the Electrek article:
Quote
After less than a year, [Jerome] Guillen ended up coming back at Tesla in a big way by leading the Tesla Semi program, which has so far been quite impressive.
The CFO also returned after a leave.

There is also constant chatter about all the high level people leaving as if Tesla is driving them out. Take a look at where they go! They leave to start their own companies or to take top positions at other leading companies like Intel, AMD, Nvidia, Apple.

Plus the chatter about how out of his depth Musk is. Look at what John D Stoll apparently said after his tour of Tesla this week.
Quote
Stoll reveals that Tesla was taking 7 hours to produce a battery pack. Later, “Workers and engineers had been debating solutions … [then] Mr. Musk sat down with them to slash production time to 70 minutes by entirely reordering the way that assembly of batteries flowed.” A technician at Tesla’s Gigafactory said that Musk “came in and eliminated 80% of the problems we were having.”
See the article describing what else he saw at https://cleantechnica.com/2018/05/12/wsj-tesla-a-car-company-that-looks-more-like-a-software-company/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4058 on: May 13, 2018, 06:47:46 PM »
Electric Winnebago.  Not qute ready for prime-time motor home use:
Quote
Winnebago's new RVs certainly don't have enough range [85 to 125 miles] for extended trips, but they are geared toward urban areas. These are ideal units for mobile classrooms or clinics, or it could be a source of emergency backup power when needed.

But this may be most important:
Quote
The EPIC [“Electric-Powered Intelligent Chassis.”] was debuted at the Work Truck Show in Indianapolis last March on a variety of Ford vehicles, including the F-53. It’s been approved under the Electric Qualified Vehicle Modifier program and are “drop-in replacements” for a similar internal combustion engine chassis.

This Winnebago RV Is 100% Electric And Zero-Emission
http://www.greenmatters.com/news/2018/05/02/Z1NhQY6/winnebago-electric-motorhome
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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4059 on: May 13, 2018, 08:45:15 PM »
Tesla - Dr. Matt Schwall - Waymo


Terry

sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4060 on: May 13, 2018, 09:30:10 PM »
The Duke would have been pleased.

 “They will only encourage the common people to move about needlessly.” --Wellington on railways.

Confine the poor. Don't want them in our neighbourhoods.

http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/387498-mass-transit-is-collapsing-everywhere

sidd

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4061 on: May 13, 2018, 09:48:04 PM »
My general complaint with mass transit is often is not convenient and often not comfortable.

In parts of SF one often has to wait up to a half hour for a bus.  The bus between Sacramento and SF runs about four times a day.  Other systems such as Bangkok's Skytrain have wait times of just a few minutes.  Many European subway systems have very low wait times.

Some mass transit gets packed with riders.  One has to stand and be thrown about as the car rapidly/roughly accelerates and brakes. 

Riding in a car is a lot more comfortable and generally leaves on your schedule, not the "system's".

Ten dollars to ride into town with single occupancy cars.  Four dollars in a shared-ride car.  Two dollars on a light rail or bus system with seating for all.  With deliberate price setting we could move people to wherever the system could tolerate more riders.

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4062 on: May 13, 2018, 10:02:29 PM »
I often feel that bus systems are not run properly, and could be much better for end-users with proper optimization and computerization. Buses are very large and slow, with endless stops and circuitous routes. It seems I'm not the only one with this thought, and there's this Israeli-originated company that tries to create a better "bus" service using shared rides in vans and large cars, operates in limited mode in NYC, Chicago and DC and is currently in expansion into Europe as well. I attended a talk given by one of the founders some time ago which was quite interesting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Via_(company)

Alexander555

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4063 on: May 13, 2018, 10:14:08 PM »
The gas price is very cheap in the US. Over here you pay something like 8+ usd for a gallon.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4064 on: May 14, 2018, 12:06:16 AM »
I often feel that bus systems are not run properly, and could be much better for end-users with proper optimization and computerization. Buses are very large and slow, with endless stops and circuitous routes. It seems I'm not the only one with this thought, and there's this Israeli-originated company that tries to create a better "bus" service using shared rides in vans and large cars, operates in limited mode in NYC, Chicago and DC and is currently in expansion into Europe as well. I attended a talk given by one of the founders some time ago which was quite interesting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Via_(company)

In Bangkok (an example) there are privately owned minivans and micro buses that run from the center of the city to outskirt areas.  They cruise certain bus stops and pick up passengers until they are full and then fly off to their destination.  They won't stop along the way to let people off/on but run an express service that get people to work and back home efficiently.

If you are living in Ayutthaya but working or shopping in Bangkok you'll know where the Bangkok vans/buses park.  And you'll will watch for one with the Ayutthaya sign in the window if you're heading home more than 60 miles away.

With robotaxis and robobuses (of various capacities) you should be able to punch in a 'Pick me up here at 4PM and take me there'.  Then the system will dispatch a one to sixty passenger vehicle to move you in a timely fashion.

Want to go at exactly 4PM and ride by yourself then you'll pay more.  If you're willing to be a bit flexible and willing to share then the price should be a lot lower.  The big deal is by getting the driver cost and fuel cost eliminated the cost per mile should be a lot less than we pay today.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4065 on: May 14, 2018, 02:34:22 PM »
Tesla Model 3 production is reportedly closing in on 4,000 per week
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-production-4k-week/



Tesla sets up new company in Shanghai’s Free-Trade Zone ahead of Chinese Gigafactory announcement
https://electrek.co/2018/05/14/tesla-new-company-shanghai-free-trade-zone-chinese-gigafactory/

Musk said recently that all future gigafactories will include vehicle production.  I believe it was he who said a Tesla factory in China would make Model 3 (and Model Y), for the Asia/Pacific market — saving on tariffs and transportation costs for these high-volume cars.

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4066 on: May 14, 2018, 06:29:42 PM »
Quote
Tesla Model 3 production is reportedly closing in on 4,000 per week

If true and that holds up there is going to be a massive bloodbath coming for the Tesla short sellers.  Possibly one for the history books.  Might be worth watching Tesla's stock price for the next few days as this production level is either confirmed or turns out to be incorrect.

I wonder if Tesla starting to manufacture and sell EVs in China might open the door for a Chinese company to come to the US with a lower priced EV?  If a long range EV for about $25k came to the US it would really shake up the US, Asian, and European car manufacturers.  They would have to start scrambling to hang on to market share.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4067 on: May 14, 2018, 07:15:39 PM »
Tesla news in Bloomberg
Quote
The Tesla Inc. management ranks that Elon Musk told employees he's
"flattening" had already been raising eyebrows by how quickly it was
thinning out.

Musk announced a "thorough reorganization" in a memo to employees
Monday, saying Tesla was changing its structure to improve
communication, combine functions and get rid of activities that aren't "vital
to the success" of the company's mission. Last week, a spokesman
confirmed one of only four executive officers named in the company's
recent proxy statement was taking time away from the company to
"recharge."
...
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4068 on: May 14, 2018, 07:48:53 PM »
Tesla news in Bloomberg
Quote
The Tesla Inc. management ranks that Elon Musk told employees he's
"flattening" had already been raising eyebrows by how quickly it was
thinning out.

Musk announced a "thorough reorganization" in a memo to employees
Monday, saying Tesla was changing its structure to improve
communication, combine functions and get rid of activities that aren't "vital
to the success" of the company's mission. Last week, a spokesman
confirmed one of only four executive officers named in the company's
recent proxy statement was taking time away from the company to
"recharge."
...

Tesla is also doing a lot of contractor pruning.  Feels to me as if Elon is somewhat relaxed about the M3 production issue and has spent some time thinking about how to make Tesla, the company, more efficient.

Good on him. 

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4069 on: May 14, 2018, 08:57:04 PM »
Thanks Tor


TSLA <$295 as investors contemplate and react to Musk's memo re. restructuring. A hackfest is announced to solve two production line bottlenecks.


Munk's $10M stock buy may have scared away some of the shorts, but couldn't keep the stock over $300.
Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4070 on: May 14, 2018, 09:46:04 PM »
Flattening the management structure is generally a very good thing.  Too much information is lost through "Chinese whispers" with a lot of people between the top and bottom.

Flattening management, pruning 'no value' contractors, and reaching 4k M3s per week may well send the stock to new height once people have a chance to think things through. 

When you've got a stock that is this speculatively priced it's likely that stockholders are really jumpy and any news is scary until it's fully understood.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4071 on: May 14, 2018, 10:58:28 PM »
No problem with what you've written Bob.
I thanked Tor for his input a few posts back because I think it's important that we get a balanced view of what is happening at Tesla, and I've often felt that I was the only one mentioning less than flattering news.
Musk is a wonderful innovator and an even better salesman. We'll soon learn what other skills he possesses, and how these will mesh with the skill sets needed to grow an auto manufacturing corporation.
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4072 on: May 16, 2018, 06:32:18 PM »
A look at DAF’s new all-electric semi truck with a 170 kWh battery pack
The Dutch truck maker partnered VDL Groep to build the electric powertrain for their CF truck, which consists of a 170 kWh battery pack and a 210 kW electric motor.
https://electrek.co/2018/05/16/daf-all-electric-truck-battery-pack/

Electrek slams the limited range (100 km) and small battery (170kWh), but it looks like it uses a CCS2 plug, which is common in Europe, so a 30-minute quick charge (over lunch) should be more than enough to cover urban routes.  I like it!
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4073 on: May 16, 2018, 07:33:06 PM »
TSLA <$295 as investors contemplate and react to Musk's memo re. restructuring.

This is a very good thing. I saw the following video a while ago about the work philosophy in space x by Dr. Dan Rasky, a NASA senior scientist. If he can apply some of the same concepts of design to senior management, Tesla stands to gain efficiency and agility.



Quote
A hackfest is announced to solve two production line bottlenecks.

That's a great thing. I'm sure it's happened to you that you get stuck with a problem where you can't find a solution regardless of how many times you look at it and try to solve it. In my experience bringing someone else to look at the problem from a different perspective can have excellent results. The bigger problems may take many new eyes looking at it from different perspectives before a solution arises.

Hackathons use the concept of multiple eyes, together with the concept of sprints, competition and timetables to systematically accelerate problem solving. Of course some problems have no solutions, but most do. This is a good way to find them.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4074 on: May 16, 2018, 07:54:40 PM »
I'm surprised that Tesla's stock price hasn't moved based on the higher M3 production rates reported.

3,000 weekly $45k M3s with a 20% GPM will create an annual profit from M3 manufacturing of $1,404,000,000.  One point four billion. 

That's about 2x Tesla's average loss, including depreciation, over the last five years.


Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4075 on: May 16, 2018, 08:31:13 PM »
Quote
I'm surprised that Tesla's stock price hasn't moved based on the higher M3 production rates reported.

Bob, you really need to get yourself a nice tinfoil hat like mine. With it you would quickly see that the Tesla trolling is really strong. Not Trump or Brexit strong, but very powerful. It's an all out attack using some of the same tactics, like fake news, disinformation and slander. This makes investors jittery.  That will eat at Tesla until Elon's reality distortion field kicks in again. I think close to 5k cars a week will be sufficient for Elon's field to rectify the troll's lies.

 I think the inflection comes after the next quarterly report. Even if 5k cars are not achieved by the end of Q2, the switch from Tesla growth mentality, to profit mentality should begin to show, by Q3 and Q4 TSLA with production humming and profits coming in Tesla should be comfortably in the mid 300.  If Performance Models and Energy products kick into gear then it will be much higher than that.

Also continued power outages increase the value of Tesla Energy, so climate change might actually help Tesla, the one thing Tesla is trying to stop.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4076 on: May 16, 2018, 08:31:43 PM »
...
 A hackfest is announced to solve two production line bottlenecks.

That's a great thing. I'm sure it's happened to you that you get stuck with a problem where you can't find a solution regardless of how many times you look at it and try to solve it. In my experience bringing someone else to look at the problem from a different perspective can have excellent results. The bigger problems may take many new eyes looking at it from different perspectives before a solution arises.

Hackathons use the concept of multiple eyes, together with the concept of sprints, competition and timetables to systematically accelerate problem solving. Of course some problems have no solutions, but most do. This is a good way to find them.

Exactly.  A “naive” perspective on a problem can sometimes see a solution that others, even experts, have missed.  And being able to go directly to the top for a go/no-go decision can be critical.  Recent case in point:  https://electrek.co/2018/05/16/tesla-hires-canadian-interns-as-professional-problem-solvers-elon-musk/
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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4077 on: May 16, 2018, 09:09:38 PM »
Tesla has $3.7 billion in convertible debt repayable by 2020, a big chunk within the next 9 months. With the share price below the conversion price, this means that the company will have to come up with the cash to pay off the debt - rather than have it converted into equity.

This makes the current shares more like an option with high acceleration up (success) or down (lack of success). The only cash-flow that really counts is EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization), and its over -$200MM for Tesla in the last quarter. With all the  added production costs (e.g. manual rework, replacing automation with people etc.), plus the stoppages, I very much doubt that EBITDA will improve in the current quarter.

The company is getting to the point where it could go down very fast, as liquidity evaporates and it needs to start paying off that convertible debt. The price of that debt is a much better judge of the company's viability, and its under performing the share price.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4078 on: May 16, 2018, 09:46:19 PM »
Quote
I'm surprised that Tesla's stock price hasn't moved based on the higher M3 production rates reported.

Bob, you really need to get yourself a nice tinfoil hat like mine. With it you would quickly see that the Tesla trolling is really strong. Not Trump or Brexit strong, but very powerful. It's an all out attack using some of the same tactics, like fake news, disinformation and slander. This makes investors jittery.  That will eat at Tesla until Elon's reality distortion field kicks in again. I think close to 5k cars a week will be sufficient for Elon's field to rectify the troll's lies.

 I think the inflection comes after the next quarterly report. Even if 5k cars are not achieved by the end of Q2, the switch from Tesla growth mentality, to profit mentality should begin to show, by Q3 and Q4 TSLA with production humming and profits coming in Tesla should be comfortably in the mid 300.  If Performance Models and Energy products kick into gear then it will be much higher than that.

Also continued power outages increase the value of Tesla Energy, so climate change might actually help Tesla, the one thing Tesla is trying to stop.

There are lot of shares which have been "short" sold.  If Tesla is largely past its M3 production problems then the stock is going to rise.  The higher the stock price gets, the greater pain/loss for short sellers.

If I was sitting on the possiblity of losing tens/hundreds of thousands of dollar on a short position I'd be looking very hard for any indication that Tesla has solved most of its M3 problems. 

And based on higher production rates recently I'd be bailing.  Bailing means buying stock at current prices to cover your short position.  I'd rather take my loss at $287 (now price) than at $300, $350, $400.

There's so much short selling that just covering the shorts alone will drive up the stock price once it's clear that Tesla is not going bankrupt.  There aren't many shares that people will sell cheap if they see good times clearly ahead and that means that shorters will have to pay a large premium to get the shares they have to provide. 

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4079 on: May 16, 2018, 09:57:29 PM »
Quote

4:16 PM ET Wed, 11 April 2018 | 01:38
More investors are betting against electric-car maker Tesla than any other U.S. stock, new data show.

The dollar amount of shares shorted on Tesla increased 28 percent in the last month to $10.7 billion, according to S3 Partners. The percentage of Tesla's available stock currently sold short exceeds 25 percent, according to FactSet.

Elon owns 27% of the shares.  He's not likely to sell cheap in order to help short sellers.  Elon's a bit sour on shorters.

I suspect a lot of other owners are not going to be willing to sell unless they can get a large bonus over what they consider a reasonable price.  And over a quarter of all shares would have to be sold as the shorts cover their positions.

Non-shorting owners are likely to watch the rising cost as shorters try to buy their way out of trouble and sit back to see how high the price will go.  The last shorters to move are going to be bidding for a small and shrinking group of shares that are buyable.

Elon has referred to what is coming as 'the bloodbath of all bloodbaths' or something close to that.  Sitting on the sidelines it should be something interesting to watch.


TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4080 on: May 16, 2018, 10:34:35 PM »
Bob
TSLA has been moving, just not in the direction you had expected.




I was concerned when it dropped below $291, then yesterday it dipped below $281. Many of the shorts have paid off handsomely.
Musk needs to get into a position where he can borrow money at a reasonable cost, and he needs to get there soon.
Paying workers 8 hours overtime/day (2 shifts running 12 hours each) is an expensive way to speed up production, and most wouldn't see it as sustainable. If he's running these same teams for 7 day weeks the overtime and double time is going to eat him alive. California has tight laws re. overtime that don't apply equally in the software field. I'm sure that Musk and all of the (remaining) execs are aware of this, but they may be coming from a culture in which it isn't considered a problem.


Please don't shoot the messenger, but I also wish that the GRACE-FOs were heading up on a more reliable rocket than the Falcon.
Terry

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4081 on: May 16, 2018, 10:41:27 PM »
Tesla has $3.7 billion in convertible debt repayable by 2020, a big chunk within the next 9 months. With the share price below the conversion price, this means that the company will have to come up with the cash to pay off the debt - rather than have it converted into equity.

This makes the current shares more like an option with high acceleration up (success) or down (lack of success). The only cash-flow that really counts is EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization), and its over -$200MM for Tesla in the last quarter. With all the  added production costs (e.g. manual rework, replacing automation with people etc.), plus the stoppages, I very much doubt that EBITDA will improve in the current quarter.

The company is getting to the point where it could go down very fast, as liquidity evaporates and it needs to start paying off that convertible debt. The price of that debt is a much better judge of the company's viability, and its under performing the share price.
I wouldn't be surprised if part of the record amount of short selling is related to this convertible bond thing. Maybe hedge funds are going long the bond and partial short of the stock, in essence buying the volatility of the embedded option. If TSLA goes sharply up or sharply down, they make a gain.
Of course, this doesn't explain the whole $10.7B of shorts, but it could explain $1B.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4082 on: May 16, 2018, 11:13:02 PM »
Given that the M3 line is now running, MS and MX sales are increasing, storage systems are selling like hotcakes, and solar roofs are now being installed do you actually think Tesla would have any problem raising cash if the need arose?

Quote
The only cash-flow that really counts is EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization), and its over -$200MM

450 M3s per week ($45k, 20% GPM) is enough to cover $200MM.  Production levels are now over 2,500 per week.

magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4083 on: May 16, 2018, 11:53:39 PM »
all this calculations what is needed to stay afloat while in fact losses are made with no real profit in sight i call "bubble talk" means it's a bubble like construct that will:

- ultimately fail while failure can occur in several ways but either way there will be people who loose money

- probably fail upon a kind of "third party" turbulence which will help a few guy to keep their face (speak reputation)

IMO tesla should join forces with one of the big manufacturers and one that has not been bankrupt recently and is a "bubble" itself, and this better as long as it's assets like know how and the reputation of a pioneer are an asset, means have a value, are making it worthwhile to spend money for big investors.

somehow i think this is what will happen but let's see, i think means not much of course, at least not much more than how such ventures often ended (transformed) in the past.
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4084 on: May 17, 2018, 12:02:11 AM »
Bob, yes that is the rational way of thinking, but remember, there is more than market caps to Tesla. Tesla primary mission is to accelerate the advent of the electric car. There are very powerful interests against this movement. Rationality is less relevant for Tesla than with more mundane stock. Just like there are people like me who are Tesla long for other than financial reasons, there are people who want to see Tesla fail at any cost. The people who wants to see Tesla fail have no qualms about deceiving others. I almost feel sorry for many shorts that have been duped with bankruptcy talk... almost.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4085 on: May 17, 2018, 12:56:46 AM »
all this calculations what is needed to stay afloat while in fact losses are made with no real profit in sight i call "bubble talk" means it's a bubble like construct that will:

- ultimately fail while failure can occur in several ways but either way there will be people who loose money

- probably fail upon a kind of "third party" turbulence which will help a few guy to keep their face (speak reputation)

IMO tesla should join forces with one of the big manufacturers and one that has not been bankrupt recently and is a "bubble" itself, and this better as long as it's assets like know how and the reputation of a pioneer are an asset, means have a value, are making it worthwhile to spend money for big investors.

somehow i think this is what will happen but let's see, i think means not much of course, at least not much more than how such ventures often ended (transformed) in the past.

" no real profit in sight"

What is your threshold for moving from "no real profit" to "real profit"?

Breaking even plus $1?

Breaking even plus $1,000?

Breaking even plus $1,000,000?

Breaking even plus $1,000,000,000?

Is breaking even, for you, based on average losses over recent years or on the worst year out of the last five?

What good would Tesla get from selling out to Apple who has their gadgets built by a Chinese company?  Apple doesn't know how to run a factory.

Sell to Google?  Google runs a search engine and sells ads.  What could Google offer?

Microsoft?  Amazon?  Or do you think Tesla should sell itself to a car manufacturer who makes ICEVs? 

Give me some guidance here.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4086 on: May 17, 2018, 02:22:03 AM »
T. Rowe Price nearly tripled its Tesla stock holding last quarter, to 15.7 million shares.  They now own 9.2 percent of outstanding stock, behind only CEO Elon Musk and Fidelity.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4087 on: May 18, 2018, 06:00:46 AM »
A cynic might point out that those wishing to hamper electric cars are motivated by profit from fossil fuel.

A greater cynic might suggest that warmongers around the globe profit from  fossil fuel dependence through war over control of oil producing regions.

And a realist might point out that US hegemony depends in large part on control of those oil producing regions, as the Carter Doctrine so well explained.

So if we don't need fossil fuel anymore, not only are profits threatened, hegemon is threatened, since oily regions will be irrelevant.

That's a lot of money and power betting against Tesla. But I have a feeling Tesla and their ilk will win. The cat is out of the bag, and rolling about joyously in the catnip patch.

sidd

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4088 on: May 18, 2018, 06:27:07 AM »
The oil industry cannot stop the transition to electric powered transportation.  They may be able to slow things down a bit here or there, but they simply cannot stop what is happening.

The coal industry has lost control in most countries, as has the nuclear industry.

Renewables and EVs are gaining political power and their power and use will only increase.  GTM has an article up today talking about how as grids reach 40% to 50% wind and solar the cost of electricity will drop about 25%.  In the US far more people work in the wind and solar industries than in oil and coal.  Plus tax revenues from wind impact more states that coal and oil. 

Within five years it should be very clear to most that oil has a limited future.  That's likely to cause a great military pullback from the Middle East.  Especially since the US now has the ability to furnish large amounts of reasonably priced oil. 

In the immortal words of Jerry Lee, there's a whole lot of shakin' about to go on.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4089 on: May 18, 2018, 10:18:14 PM »
Sad to see production of the Chevy Bolt languishing. I wonder if GM would admit to battery supply problems (the way Hyundai has for the IONIQ), if they really wanted the Bolt to be anything other than a compliance car.  Elon Musk (who knows a thing or two about CARB credits ;) ), has said that anything beyond 20,000 to 30,000 cars a year makes no sense for CARB benefits.

Chevy Bolt EVs backordered by up to a year in Canada
https://electrek.co/2018/05/18/chevy-bolt-ev-backordered-canada/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4090 on: May 19, 2018, 01:21:02 PM »
... and lawnmowers!

”Americans devote 70 hours, annually, to pushing petrol-powered spinning death blades over aggressively pointless green carpets to meet an embarrassingly destructive beauty standard based on specious homogeneity. We marvel at how verdant we manage to make our overwatered, chemical-soaked, ecologically-sterile backyards. That’s just biblically, nay, God-of-War-ishly violent.”

Lawns Are an Ecological Disaster
https://earther.com/lawns-are-an-ecological-disaster-1826070720
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4091 on: May 19, 2018, 04:36:38 PM »
“#Tesla registered 803 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 43755. ...”
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/997397301067857920

Plus 145 more found this morning, for a total of 10,181 registered so far in May.  Highest VIN is 43900.

Bloomberg Tracker’s top-of-page number (an average/trend) is 3,523.  Production is expected to be off for a few days later this month due to another planned production line update.
 
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4092 on: May 20, 2018, 02:55:49 PM »
“#Tesla registered 803 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 43755. ...”
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/997397301067857920

Plus 145 more found this morning, for a total of 10,181 registered so far in May.  Highest VIN is 43900.

Bloomberg Tracker’s top-of-page number (an average/trend) is 3,523.  Production is expected to be off for a few days later this month due to another planned production line update.

And we now see why a shut-down is needed:  Orders for dual-motor and performance options for the Model 3 are being opened.  Availability of those new versions had been dependent upon getting the production rate up to 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of the quarter.

“Based on an email from Elon Musk to employees that we leaked earlier this week, Tesla was on track for 3,500 Model 3 vehicles this week.”

So it appears the production ramp is going well.

https://electrek.co/2018/05/20/tesla-unveils-faster-and-more-powerful-model-3-dual-motor-awd-and-performance-versions/

Edit:
The ramp has ramped. 
Tesla cuts Model 3 delivery delays for new orders in half as production ramp improves
https://electrek.co/2018/05/20/tesla-model-3-delivery-timelines-new-orders-production/
« Last Edit: May 21, 2018, 02:04:12 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4093 on: May 21, 2018, 02:12:08 AM »
The Elon/Tesla haters are going to have to get to work tomorrow morning and come up with new ways to carry their attack forward.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4094 on: May 22, 2018, 12:42:00 AM »
No surprise:  Norway is the exception in almost every category.

Electric car adoption is slowed down by ‘dismissive and deceptive car dealerships’, finds new study
Quote
The study is based on “126 shopping experiences at 82 car dealerships across Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden.”
...

Their conclusion was quite negative for electric vehicle sales through car dealers:

We find that dealers were dismissive of EVs, misinformed shoppers on vehicle specifications, omitted EVs from the sales conversation and strongly oriented customers towards petrol and diesel vehicle options. Dealers’ technological orientation, willingness to sell and displayed knowledge of EVs were the main contributors to likely purchase intentions.
https://electrek.co/2018/05/21/electric-car-adoption-deceptive-car-dealerships-new-study/
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sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4095 on: May 22, 2018, 01:32:25 AM »
Lot of dealership money comes from service. Electric cars have fewer moving parts, less service. So sad.

sidd

Yuha

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4096 on: May 22, 2018, 12:30:43 PM »
There should be more of places like the EV Experience Center in this Fully Charged video:



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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4097 on: May 22, 2018, 02:23:24 PM »
The Elon/Tesla haters are going to have to get to work tomorrow morning and come up with new ways to carry their attack forward.

The delusional talking points are:
- the top model 3 trim is more expensive than the cheapest model S which is a horrible violation of a promise by Musk and will completely confuse buyers
- the model 3 isn’t a cheap car
- selling a car with higher margin will distract Tesla from making a profit because now it needs to build a whole new factory
- this is proof there’s no demand for the cars
- Al Gore is fat

It’s pretty easy to say stupid things, so it didn’t take them very long to come up with those.

JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4098 on: May 22, 2018, 04:29:03 PM »
The Elon/Tesla haters are going to have to get to work tomorrow morning and come up with new ways to carry their attack forward.

Oh, ok.  I guess your religious convictions can withstand any dose of reality then. I wouldn't want to damage your fragile psyche.  All praise the glorious leader..Musk!..Musk!..Musk!

So now the 3 most prestigious auto quality and design companies (Consumer Reports, Edmunds and Munro) have purchased and evaluated the Model 3 and are consistent in their evaluations in that the car is a mediocre design, not that well built and not high on any build quality list.  Guess they are just haters and have no reputations for honesty. And, of course, the fact that they have shown no ability to make a profit means absolutely nothing.

Do you people have any idea how irrational you come across as?

Quote
Consumer Reports, Edmunds observe significant problems with Tesla Model 3 test cars
Long braking distances and infotainment gremlins are top concerns

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/05/21/tesla-model-3-consumer-reports-edmunds/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4099 on: May 22, 2018, 04:59:42 PM »
First an interesting video. Model X rollover Test:

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/998233121660190720

Second, Tesla's response to emergency stopping distance inconsistencies:
Quote
Looks like this can be fixed with a firmware update. Will be rolling that out in a few days. With further refinement, we can improve braking distance beyond initial specs. Tesla won’t stop until Model 3 has better braking than any remotely comparable car.

He later mentioned ABS calibration as the culprit. We will see what happens. I hope this can be fixed with a OTA update. If not, Tesla will have to issue a recall. Certainly not ideal, but recalls are part of automotive business, so it shouldn't be too bad.


Third, Elon on Munro's criticism:

Quote
I have been meaning to get around to talking to him. Some of his criticisms are valid, but, on the higher body/chassis weight front, he wasn’t fully appreciating that we were going for much higher crash safety levels than other cars.
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