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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4050 on: May 16, 2018, 09:09:38 PM »
Tesla has $3.7 billion in convertible debt repayable by 2020, a big chunk within the next 9 months. With the share price below the conversion price, this means that the company will have to come up with the cash to pay off the debt - rather than have it converted into equity.

This makes the current shares more like an option with high acceleration up (success) or down (lack of success). The only cash-flow that really counts is EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization), and its over -$200MM for Tesla in the last quarter. With all the  added production costs (e.g. manual rework, replacing automation with people etc.), plus the stoppages, I very much doubt that EBITDA will improve in the current quarter.

The company is getting to the point where it could go down very fast, as liquidity evaporates and it needs to start paying off that convertible debt. The price of that debt is a much better judge of the company's viability, and its under performing the share price.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4051 on: May 16, 2018, 09:46:19 PM »
Quote
I'm surprised that Tesla's stock price hasn't moved based on the higher M3 production rates reported.

Bob, you really need to get yourself a nice tinfoil hat like mine. With it you would quickly see that the Tesla trolling is really strong. Not Trump or Brexit strong, but very powerful. It's an all out attack using some of the same tactics, like fake news, disinformation and slander. This makes investors jittery.  That will eat at Tesla until Elon's reality distortion field kicks in again. I think close to 5k cars a week will be sufficient for Elon's field to rectify the troll's lies.

 I think the inflection comes after the next quarterly report. Even if 5k cars are not achieved by the end of Q2, the switch from Tesla growth mentality, to profit mentality should begin to show, by Q3 and Q4 TSLA with production humming and profits coming in Tesla should be comfortably in the mid 300.  If Performance Models and Energy products kick into gear then it will be much higher than that.

Also continued power outages increase the value of Tesla Energy, so climate change might actually help Tesla, the one thing Tesla is trying to stop.

There are lot of shares which have been "short" sold.  If Tesla is largely past its M3 production problems then the stock is going to rise.  The higher the stock price gets, the greater pain/loss for short sellers.

If I was sitting on the possiblity of losing tens/hundreds of thousands of dollar on a short position I'd be looking very hard for any indication that Tesla has solved most of its M3 problems. 

And based on higher production rates recently I'd be bailing.  Bailing means buying stock at current prices to cover your short position.  I'd rather take my loss at $287 (now price) than at $300, $350, $400.

There's so much short selling that just covering the shorts alone will drive up the stock price once it's clear that Tesla is not going bankrupt.  There aren't many shares that people will sell cheap if they see good times clearly ahead and that means that shorters will have to pay a large premium to get the shares they have to provide. 

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4052 on: May 16, 2018, 09:57:29 PM »
Quote

4:16 PM ET Wed, 11 April 2018 | 01:38
More investors are betting against electric-car maker Tesla than any other U.S. stock, new data show.

The dollar amount of shares shorted on Tesla increased 28 percent in the last month to $10.7 billion, according to S3 Partners. The percentage of Tesla's available stock currently sold short exceeds 25 percent, according to FactSet.

Elon owns 27% of the shares.  He's not likely to sell cheap in order to help short sellers.  Elon's a bit sour on shorters.

I suspect a lot of other owners are not going to be willing to sell unless they can get a large bonus over what they consider a reasonable price.  And over a quarter of all shares would have to be sold as the shorts cover their positions.

Non-shorting owners are likely to watch the rising cost as shorters try to buy their way out of trouble and sit back to see how high the price will go.  The last shorters to move are going to be bidding for a small and shrinking group of shares that are buyable.

Elon has referred to what is coming as 'the bloodbath of all bloodbaths' or something close to that.  Sitting on the sidelines it should be something interesting to watch.


TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4053 on: May 16, 2018, 10:34:35 PM »
Bob
TSLA has been moving, just not in the direction you had expected.




I was concerned when it dropped below $291, then yesterday it dipped below $281. Many of the shorts have paid off handsomely.
Musk needs to get into a position where he can borrow money at a reasonable cost, and he needs to get there soon.
Paying workers 8 hours overtime/day (2 shifts running 12 hours each) is an expensive way to speed up production, and most wouldn't see it as sustainable. If he's running these same teams for 7 day weeks the overtime and double time is going to eat him alive. California has tight laws re. overtime that don't apply equally in the software field. I'm sure that Musk and all of the (remaining) execs are aware of this, but they may be coming from a culture in which it isn't considered a problem.


Please don't shoot the messenger, but I also wish that the GRACE-FOs were heading up on a more reliable rocket than the Falcon.
Terry

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4054 on: May 16, 2018, 10:41:27 PM »
Tesla has $3.7 billion in convertible debt repayable by 2020, a big chunk within the next 9 months. With the share price below the conversion price, this means that the company will have to come up with the cash to pay off the debt - rather than have it converted into equity.

This makes the current shares more like an option with high acceleration up (success) or down (lack of success). The only cash-flow that really counts is EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization), and its over -$200MM for Tesla in the last quarter. With all the  added production costs (e.g. manual rework, replacing automation with people etc.), plus the stoppages, I very much doubt that EBITDA will improve in the current quarter.

The company is getting to the point where it could go down very fast, as liquidity evaporates and it needs to start paying off that convertible debt. The price of that debt is a much better judge of the company's viability, and its under performing the share price.
I wouldn't be surprised if part of the record amount of short selling is related to this convertible bond thing. Maybe hedge funds are going long the bond and partial short of the stock, in essence buying the volatility of the embedded option. If TSLA goes sharply up or sharply down, they make a gain.
Of course, this doesn't explain the whole $10.7B of shorts, but it could explain $1B.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4055 on: May 16, 2018, 11:13:02 PM »
Given that the M3 line is now running, MS and MX sales are increasing, storage systems are selling like hotcakes, and solar roofs are now being installed do you actually think Tesla would have any problem raising cash if the need arose?

Quote
The only cash-flow that really counts is EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization), and its over -$200MM

450 M3s per week ($45k, 20% GPM) is enough to cover $200MM.  Production levels are now over 2,500 per week.

magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4056 on: May 16, 2018, 11:53:39 PM »
all this calculations what is needed to stay afloat while in fact losses are made with no real profit in sight i call "bubble talk" means it's a bubble like construct that will:

- ultimately fail while failure can occur in several ways but either way there will be people who loose money

- probably fail upon a kind of "third party" turbulence which will help a few guy to keep their face (speak reputation)

IMO tesla should join forces with one of the big manufacturers and one that has not been bankrupt recently and is a "bubble" itself, and this better as long as it's assets like know how and the reputation of a pioneer are an asset, means have a value, are making it worthwhile to spend money for big investors.

somehow i think this is what will happen but let's see, i think means not much of course, at least not much more than how such ventures often ended (transformed) in the past.
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4057 on: May 17, 2018, 12:02:11 AM »
Bob, yes that is the rational way of thinking, but remember, there is more than market caps to Tesla. Tesla primary mission is to accelerate the advent of the electric car. There are very powerful interests against this movement. Rationality is less relevant for Tesla than with more mundane stock. Just like there are people like me who are Tesla long for other than financial reasons, there are people who want to see Tesla fail at any cost. The people who wants to see Tesla fail have no qualms about deceiving others. I almost feel sorry for many shorts that have been duped with bankruptcy talk... almost.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4058 on: May 17, 2018, 12:56:46 AM »
all this calculations what is needed to stay afloat while in fact losses are made with no real profit in sight i call "bubble talk" means it's a bubble like construct that will:

- ultimately fail while failure can occur in several ways but either way there will be people who loose money

- probably fail upon a kind of "third party" turbulence which will help a few guy to keep their face (speak reputation)

IMO tesla should join forces with one of the big manufacturers and one that has not been bankrupt recently and is a "bubble" itself, and this better as long as it's assets like know how and the reputation of a pioneer are an asset, means have a value, are making it worthwhile to spend money for big investors.

somehow i think this is what will happen but let's see, i think means not much of course, at least not much more than how such ventures often ended (transformed) in the past.

" no real profit in sight"

What is your threshold for moving from "no real profit" to "real profit"?

Breaking even plus $1?

Breaking even plus $1,000?

Breaking even plus $1,000,000?

Breaking even plus $1,000,000,000?

Is breaking even, for you, based on average losses over recent years or on the worst year out of the last five?

What good would Tesla get from selling out to Apple who has their gadgets built by a Chinese company?  Apple doesn't know how to run a factory.

Sell to Google?  Google runs a search engine and sells ads.  What could Google offer?

Microsoft?  Amazon?  Or do you think Tesla should sell itself to a car manufacturer who makes ICEVs? 

Give me some guidance here.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4059 on: May 17, 2018, 02:22:03 AM »
T. Rowe Price nearly tripled its Tesla stock holding last quarter, to 15.7 million shares.  They now own 9.2 percent of outstanding stock, behind only CEO Elon Musk and Fidelity.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4060 on: May 18, 2018, 06:00:46 AM »
A cynic might point out that those wishing to hamper electric cars are motivated by profit from fossil fuel.

A greater cynic might suggest that warmongers around the globe profit from  fossil fuel dependence through war over control of oil producing regions.

And a realist might point out that US hegemony depends in large part on control of those oil producing regions, as the Carter Doctrine so well explained.

So if we don't need fossil fuel anymore, not only are profits threatened, hegemon is threatened, since oily regions will be irrelevant.

That's a lot of money and power betting against Tesla. But I have a feeling Tesla and their ilk will win. The cat is out of the bag, and rolling about joyously in the catnip patch.

sidd

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4061 on: May 18, 2018, 06:27:07 AM »
The oil industry cannot stop the transition to electric powered transportation.  They may be able to slow things down a bit here or there, but they simply cannot stop what is happening.

The coal industry has lost control in most countries, as has the nuclear industry.

Renewables and EVs are gaining political power and their power and use will only increase.  GTM has an article up today talking about how as grids reach 40% to 50% wind and solar the cost of electricity will drop about 25%.  In the US far more people work in the wind and solar industries than in oil and coal.  Plus tax revenues from wind impact more states that coal and oil. 

Within five years it should be very clear to most that oil has a limited future.  That's likely to cause a great military pullback from the Middle East.  Especially since the US now has the ability to furnish large amounts of reasonably priced oil. 

In the immortal words of Jerry Lee, there's a whole lot of shakin' about to go on.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4062 on: May 18, 2018, 10:18:14 PM »
Sad to see production of the Chevy Bolt languishing. I wonder if GM would admit to battery supply problems (the way Hyundai has for the IONIQ), if they really wanted the Bolt to be anything other than a compliance car.  Elon Musk (who knows a thing or two about CARB credits ;) ), has said that anything beyond 20,000 to 30,000 cars a year makes no sense for CARB benefits.

Chevy Bolt EVs backordered by up to a year in Canada
https://electrek.co/2018/05/18/chevy-bolt-ev-backordered-canada/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4063 on: May 19, 2018, 01:21:02 PM »
... and lawnmowers!

”Americans devote 70 hours, annually, to pushing petrol-powered spinning death blades over aggressively pointless green carpets to meet an embarrassingly destructive beauty standard based on specious homogeneity. We marvel at how verdant we manage to make our overwatered, chemical-soaked, ecologically-sterile backyards. That’s just biblically, nay, God-of-War-ishly violent.”

Lawns Are an Ecological Disaster
https://earther.com/lawns-are-an-ecological-disaster-1826070720
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4064 on: May 19, 2018, 04:36:38 PM »
“#Tesla registered 803 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 43755. ...”
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/997397301067857920

Plus 145 more found this morning, for a total of 10,181 registered so far in May.  Highest VIN is 43900.

Bloomberg Tracker’s top-of-page number (an average/trend) is 3,523.  Production is expected to be off for a few days later this month due to another planned production line update.
 
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4065 on: May 20, 2018, 02:55:49 PM »
“#Tesla registered 803 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 43755. ...”
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/997397301067857920

Plus 145 more found this morning, for a total of 10,181 registered so far in May.  Highest VIN is 43900.

Bloomberg Tracker’s top-of-page number (an average/trend) is 3,523.  Production is expected to be off for a few days later this month due to another planned production line update.

And we now see why a shut-down is needed:  Orders for dual-motor and performance options for the Model 3 are being opened.  Availability of those new versions had been dependent upon getting the production rate up to 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of the quarter.

“Based on an email from Elon Musk to employees that we leaked earlier this week, Tesla was on track for 3,500 Model 3 vehicles this week.”

So it appears the production ramp is going well.

https://electrek.co/2018/05/20/tesla-unveils-faster-and-more-powerful-model-3-dual-motor-awd-and-performance-versions/

Edit:
The ramp has ramped. 
Tesla cuts Model 3 delivery delays for new orders in half as production ramp improves
https://electrek.co/2018/05/20/tesla-model-3-delivery-timelines-new-orders-production/
« Last Edit: May 21, 2018, 02:04:12 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4066 on: May 21, 2018, 02:12:08 AM »
The Elon/Tesla haters are going to have to get to work tomorrow morning and come up with new ways to carry their attack forward.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4067 on: May 22, 2018, 12:42:00 AM »
No surprise:  Norway is the exception in almost every category.

Electric car adoption is slowed down by ‘dismissive and deceptive car dealerships’, finds new study
Quote
The study is based on “126 shopping experiences at 82 car dealerships across Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden.”
...

Their conclusion was quite negative for electric vehicle sales through car dealers:

We find that dealers were dismissive of EVs, misinformed shoppers on vehicle specifications, omitted EVs from the sales conversation and strongly oriented customers towards petrol and diesel vehicle options. Dealers’ technological orientation, willingness to sell and displayed knowledge of EVs were the main contributors to likely purchase intentions.
https://electrek.co/2018/05/21/electric-car-adoption-deceptive-car-dealerships-new-study/
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sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4068 on: May 22, 2018, 01:32:25 AM »
Lot of dealership money comes from service. Electric cars have fewer moving parts, less service. So sad.

sidd

Yuha

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4069 on: May 22, 2018, 12:30:43 PM »
There should be more of places like the EV Experience Center in this Fully Charged video:



numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4070 on: May 22, 2018, 02:23:24 PM »
The Elon/Tesla haters are going to have to get to work tomorrow morning and come up with new ways to carry their attack forward.

The delusional talking points are:
- the top model 3 trim is more expensive than the cheapest model S which is a horrible violation of a promise by Musk and will completely confuse buyers
- the model 3 isn’t a cheap car
- selling a car with higher margin will distract Tesla from making a profit because now it needs to build a whole new factory
- this is proof there’s no demand for the cars
- Al Gore is fat

It’s pretty easy to say stupid things, so it didn’t take them very long to come up with those.

JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4071 on: May 22, 2018, 04:29:03 PM »
The Elon/Tesla haters are going to have to get to work tomorrow morning and come up with new ways to carry their attack forward.

Oh, ok.  I guess your religious convictions can withstand any dose of reality then. I wouldn't want to damage your fragile psyche.  All praise the glorious leader..Musk!..Musk!..Musk!

So now the 3 most prestigious auto quality and design companies (Consumer Reports, Edmunds and Munro) have purchased and evaluated the Model 3 and are consistent in their evaluations in that the car is a mediocre design, not that well built and not high on any build quality list.  Guess they are just haters and have no reputations for honesty. And, of course, the fact that they have shown no ability to make a profit means absolutely nothing.

Do you people have any idea how irrational you come across as?

Quote
Consumer Reports, Edmunds observe significant problems with Tesla Model 3 test cars
Long braking distances and infotainment gremlins are top concerns

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/05/21/tesla-model-3-consumer-reports-edmunds/
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4072 on: May 22, 2018, 04:59:42 PM »
First an interesting video. Model X rollover Test:

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/998233121660190720

Second, Tesla's response to emergency stopping distance inconsistencies:
Quote
Looks like this can be fixed with a firmware update. Will be rolling that out in a few days. With further refinement, we can improve braking distance beyond initial specs. Tesla won’t stop until Model 3 has better braking than any remotely comparable car.

He later mentioned ABS calibration as the culprit. We will see what happens. I hope this can be fixed with a OTA update. If not, Tesla will have to issue a recall. Certainly not ideal, but recalls are part of automotive business, so it shouldn't be too bad.


Third, Elon on Munro's criticism:

Quote
I have been meaning to get around to talking to him. Some of his criticisms are valid, but, on the higher body/chassis weight front, he wasn’t fully appreciating that we were going for much higher crash safety levels than other cars.
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JimD

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« Reply #4073 on: May 22, 2018, 05:18:57 PM »
Another thing showing the lack of design expertise are repair costs.  Mature auto manufacturers go to a lot of trouble to make sure items like described here do not happen.

Note a picture of the dent being discussed shows you could cover it with your hand.  The kicker here is that it is obvious that Tesla will never be able to afford to build and ship the $35K version of the car when a very simple bit of damage costs 20% of the value of the car to fix.

Only a person devoid of reason would think that there are not many similar issues which are going to come to light in the future.

Quote
In an article published over the weekend by Clean Technica, the author details how a small dent in a front left fender of a Tesla - caused by hitting a parking sign that the car's cameras also somehow missed - ultimately cost the shocked owner nearly $7,000 to fix and replace. The author of the blog was stunned by the price tag:

I decided to file a claim and asked the body shop folks to coordinate the repair with my insurance company. After a few days without any meaningful updates, I asked my insurance company (Liberty Mutual) what was the hold-up. The claims specialist told me, “Well the shop’s estimate was a bit higher than we expected.” How much higher? “Nearly $7,000, of which $5,000 was labor.” I had heard that the Model S was expensive to fix, mostly due to its all aluminum construction. But the Model 3’s “simple design” and the planned use of steel over aluminum where possible was supposed to make things like this less complicated (and less costly). It turns out that there is still quite a bit of aluminum in the Model 3, as you can read about in articles like this one.



Quote
And the cherry on top: to replace the fender on the vehicle, there was a significant amount of the car's body that needed to be removed, racking up thousands of dollars in labor charges:

But more complicated and labor-intensive than the painting is the “R&I” — short for “Removal and Installation.” To repair this fender apparently requires removal and reassembly of much of the left side of the car, including all of the trim pieces, moldings, and the driver’s mirror, as well as the front bumper. And when you reinstall the front bumper, you also have to “aim” (re-calibrate) the front distance sensor. The repair also required disassembly of the rear seats in order to access (and disconnect) the high-voltage battery connectors. Apparently, they do this so as not to electrocute the folks working on the car (always nice to not kill anyone).

The insurance company balked at the estimate and sent their own adjuster. So a few days later, I got the news: the second adjuster’s estimate was not far off from the shop’s own appraisal. It was around $6,250 — about $500 lower than the original appraisal. So the insurance company approved the repair, and I had to wait a few more days for the shop to finish the work.

We can only guess that if baseline Model 3 orders ever do ship, customers will be equally as shocked by what should be soaring insurance costs, given the extensive amount of labor and cost involved with making such a small repair, for a company which was all about rolling out the next big thing while support and maintenance was only a casual  afterthought.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4074 on: May 22, 2018, 06:00:57 PM »
The big boys are planning major entries into the EV market. Tesla simply will not be able to withstand the competition and will go bankrupt. Elon Musk will be considered a visionary and a prophet and suffer the fate of most prophets, an early demise but a prophet none the less.

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4075 on: May 22, 2018, 06:29:56 PM »
If the market Tesla was targeting was the EV market I would say that you are correct. However, Tesla is targeting the car market at large, not the EV market. Since most manufacturers are not taking EV's serious, Tesla can eat at ICE sales for years to come. Just like there exist many car brands today, there will exist many EV car brands, including legacy brands like VW, Nissan or Porsche.

The transition from ICE to EV alone will cost legacy car manufacturers a ton and the longer they hang on to it the more is going to cost them. If Tesla vertical integration with energy products pans out as planed, then Tesla will dominate the future car market.
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4076 on: May 22, 2018, 06:37:37 PM »
JimD, the high repair cost is expected. The first time you repair anything it is more difficult and more expensive. As repair shops start seeing more Model 3's and parts become available the cost of repair should get better. By the time there are half a million Model 3's on the road the cost should be in line with other cars.
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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4077 on: May 22, 2018, 07:00:41 PM »
The strangest thing here is being referred to as a "hater", when simply noting accurate news from apparently reliable sources.
Simply asking why Elon wasn't aware of the braking problem with the Model 3, or why he first denied it, can evoke howls that anyone asking such questions must be a stooge for big oil. 


Consumer Report wasn't the first to mention how bad locating so many of the controls on the screen is. Taking your eyes off the road while driving has never been considered a safe thing to do. Tesla's "Autopilot" hasn't done much to change that old saw, yet this must have been what the designers were counting on when they moved the controls out of the line of sight, and removed any tactile references.
I've never driven a vehicle where it took more than an hour to know where all the controls were, and to be able to operate them blindfold if need be.


There is a very wet Tesla with a very dead driver behind the wheel. We won't know for a few days whether he mistook a straight, wide paved section without a right side stripe for the road, or whether his car made that fatal decision.
What's your guess?


Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4078 on: May 22, 2018, 07:11:33 PM »
The Elon/Tesla haters are going to have to get to work tomorrow morning and come up with new ways to carry their attack forward.

Oh, ok.  I guess your religious convictions can withstand any dose of reality then. I wouldn't want to damage your fragile psyche.  All praise the glorious leader..Musk!..Musk!..Musk!

So now the 3 most prestigious auto quality and design companies (Consumer Reports, Edmunds and Munro) have purchased and evaluated the Model 3 and are consistent in their evaluations in that the car is a mediocre design, not that well built and not high on any build quality list.  Guess they are just haters and have no reputations for honesty. And, of course, the fact that they have shown no ability to make a profit means absolutely nothing.

Do you people have any idea how irrational you come across as?

Quote
Consumer Reports, Edmunds observe significant problems with Tesla Model 3 test cars
Long braking distances and infotainment gremlins are top concerns

https://www.autoblog.com/2018/05/21/tesla-model-3-consumer-reports-edmunds/

It's clear that Tesla does not build the highest quality body of all car manufacturers.  The problems seem to be minor.  Munro evaluated one of the first Model 3s produced.  Later produced cars seem to have less 'fit and finish' issues. 

I hadn't read Edmunds review but just did.

Quote
Most of our car's panel fits are true, but one hood seam isn't flush. Our car was delivered with a broken vanity mirror and a loose seatback cover. Note: Ours is a very early-build car, among the first 1,200 made.

Like the Munro review, an early off the line model.

Edmunds gives Tesla only a three out of five rating for technology. 

Remember Sandy Munro's praise of the T3's skateboard and how far in front of other manufacturers Tesla is when it comes to EV technology?  Here's why Edmunds gives the T3 a mediocre Technology rating...

Quote
The Model 3 scores an A for its sound quality, navigation display, and the Autopilot traffic-aware cruise and lane management system. But it earns a D-minus because Tesla's chosen way to bring your smartphone into the audio environment involves Bluetooth audio and fiddling with your phone while driving.

Later Edmonds writes about using its phone with voice control.  Is that "fiddling"?  I don't know.  Tesla has docking stations for two smartphones.  Would it be a problem if communication between phone and car was bluetooth?

https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-3/2017/review/


Consumers Reports had issues with braking distance which Tesla is questioning.  We'll have to wait to see how that works out.

I have no idea what you mean by "a mediocre design".  My impression is that is an issue of individual taste.  The Model 3 is a more 'classic' design rather than some other cars which look like something from a Japanese cartoon.  Taste differs.  I happen to think some of the latest Toyota designs are mega-ugly but if other people like them then that's their taste.


Bob Wallace

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« Reply #4079 on: May 22, 2018, 07:27:46 PM »
The strangest thing here is being referred to as a "hater", when simply noting accurate news from apparently reliable sources.
Simply asking why Elon wasn't aware of the braking problem with the Model 3, or why he first denied it, can evoke howls that anyone asking such questions must be a stooge for big oil. 


Consumer Report wasn't the first to mention how bad locating so many of the controls on the screen is. Taking your eyes off the road while driving has never been considered a safe thing to do. Tesla's "Autopilot" hasn't done much to change that old saw, yet this must have been what the designers were counting on when they moved the controls out of the line of sight, and removed any tactile references.
I've never driven a vehicle where it took more than an hour to know where all the controls were, and to be able to operate them blindfold if need be.


There is a very wet Tesla with a very dead driver behind the wheel. We won't know for a few days whether he mistook a straight, wide paved section without a right side stripe for the road, or whether his car made that fatal decision.
What's your guess?


Terry

I didn't see anyone call Jim a hater.  I did see him shade his criticism in an non-objective way.  For example, he failed to mention that a large part of the labor cost of repairing the M3 was paint matching.  And that Munro and Edmonds both tested 'early off the line' cars.

People who own M3s report that it takes an hour or so to adjust to using the screen rather than individual gauges but once adjusted to the change using the screen takes their eyes off the road far less than looking down at the dash.

I call BS on "never driven a vehicle where it took more than an hour to know where all the controls were, and to be able to operate them blindfold if need be". 

Tesla's Autopilot is not a self-driving system.  It requires a driver who is paying attention to back it up.  In the case of the most recent accident in which a driver totaled his Tesla and broke his ankle the driver admitted that he was reading messages on his phone and not watching the road.  Clearly the driver who hit the tractor trailer was not watching the road. 

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4080 on: May 22, 2018, 07:47:22 PM »
Bob
Get into your car, close your eyes. start the engine, then adjust the temperature to make it warmer but turn down the fan, turn on your headlights, then dim them, turn on the radio and adjust the volume, slide your seat forward and tip it back, check that the beast is in neutral or park and pull back on the emergency brake, remove your key and exit the vehicle.
Wasn't that hard, was it? 8)


Every control is in it's own location, each has tactile clues as to it's purpose, all are effortlessly memorized.


Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4081 on: May 22, 2018, 08:24:25 PM »
Bob
Get into your car, close your eyes. start the engine, then adjust the temperature to make it warmer but turn down the fan, turn on your headlights, then dim them, turn on the radio and adjust the volume, slide your seat forward and tip it back, check that the beast is in neutral or park and pull back on the emergency brake, remove your key and exit the vehicle.
Wasn't that hard, was it? 8)


Every control is in it's own location, each has tactile clues as to it's purpose, all are effortlessly memorized.

Terry

Terry, yesterday while driving to town I had to pull to the side of the road in my Toyota pickup in order to figure out which button turned off the AC and which opened the outside air intake.  I've been driving this truck for years.

I have to look at the radio anytime I want to adjust the volume because if one hits the "uni-knob" wrong the station changes.

I have to search for the dash light illumination button any time I want to adjust panel lighting.  Which I had to do yesterday while I had stopped to change the clock.

Sometimes I have to look down to the shift level to see if I'm in 3 or 5.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4082 on: May 22, 2018, 08:48:39 PM »
Ouch!
My father broke a brand new Lincoln fiddling with the radio when I was a kid. Scared the crap out of me. Maybe I've just remembered that subconsciously and made sure I never did likewise?


Any other input into making adjustments while driving and keeping your eyes on the road?
I've always assumed that everyone did as I do.

Terry

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4083 on: May 22, 2018, 09:32:33 PM »

-Get into your car, close your eyes.
- start the engine: There is no engine to start in a Tesla. I's always on.
- then adjust the temperature to make it warmer but turn down the fan: You can pre-warm/pre-cool a Tesla over your phone. Else it turns on automatically to your preferred settings
- turn on your headlights, then dim them: Tesla has auto headlights.
- turn on the radio and adjust the volume: Tesla sound system volume is speed aware.
- slide your seat forward and tip it back: Tesla automatically does that according to your profile --- check that the beast is in neutral or park and pull back on the emergency brake: Auto park, no e-brake
- remove your key and exit the vehicle: Tesla has no key other than your phone or keycard. It autolocks/unlocks

"Wasn't that hard, was it? 8)"

It's luxury.

"Every control is in it's own location, each has tactile clues as to it's purpose, all are effortlessly memorized."

You must have own your car for a while before that tactile memory is developed. The same memory develops for the screen controls.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4084 on: May 22, 2018, 10:29:41 PM »
People don't mention the universally programmable controls on the Tesla steering wheel which can control many (eventually all probably) of what is controlled on the touch screen.

They also don't mention voice control which is not yet fully implemented but unlike every other automaker will be updated over the air while your car is parked (at no cost to the owner).

The braking distance crisis people are hyperventilating about now will almost certainly become another demonstration of Tesla's lead in the field - the ABS calibration software will be adjusted and all Model 3's will be "fixed", again while they are parked overnight and at no cost.

On the subject of car controls I still haven't figured out all of my now 7 week old plug-in's controls. It has much more traditional controls for sure but obviously not what I'm used to. After 5 years in my previous Toyota my wife and I still struggled to find and adjust things like dash display brightness because the time between needing to make adjustments was clearly longer than our working memory. A touch screen would have made that easier.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2018, 10:37:21 PM by ghoti »

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4085 on: May 22, 2018, 10:40:59 PM »
Yep. Legacy automakers wouldn't even acknowledge there is a problem until the government forces it. Then they go through a litany of bureaucracy to send customers snail mail letter telling customers to contact their dealers to make an appointment. Then you get ready to lose a day or more of your life at a car dealership where pushy vendors won't let you breath without offering you the "deal of the century".

Tesla? There is a problem, they acknowledge  it, get to work on it and may simply fix the car over the air, over night, without bothering customers. At least for many problems. It remains to be seen if this brake issue will be the case. I hope it is.

Sure, legacy automakers can eventually do this to their cars, as long as they come to some sort of agreement with the dealership network and get executives willing to work fast. 
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4086 on: May 22, 2018, 11:53:12 PM »
People don't mention the universally programmable controls on the Tesla steering wheel which can control many (eventually all probably) of what is controlled on the touch screen.


I wasn't aware of that feature at all. The steering wheel is an excellent location, much better than the multi step touch screen commands that have been commented upon.


As far as my familiarity with controls, it may have been a result of the first crash I was in that I related earlier, and it may have something to do with having worked as a professional driver at various times.
It's not difficult and it probably helped contribute to a lifetime of driving many miles without ever having injured myself or others. - as long as we're not counting dirt bike racing in my early 20's. ;D
Terry


Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4087 on: May 23, 2018, 12:11:53 AM »
People don't mention the universally programmable controls on the Tesla steering wheel which can control many (eventually all probably) of what is controlled on the touch screen.

They also don't mention voice control which is not yet fully implemented but unlike every other automaker will be updated over the air while your car is parked (at no cost to the owner).

"My car":

"Turn down the radio"
"Turn on the right rear seat warmer for Grandma"
"Dim yourself"
"Tell me (out loud) how much range I have left"
"Set a course for home"
"Order me a grilled ham and gouda with frisee and caramelized onions on artisanal sourdough from the Bon Appetite Drivethourgh and tell them what time we'll be there.  Oh, add an iced white chocolate mocha to that order."

numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4088 on: May 23, 2018, 12:30:19 AM »
I know where the controls are in my car, which is going on 19 (and may or may not make it to there).

When I rent a car I have no clue where they are. For one, they're different. For another, increasingly manufacturers are using the touch screen for everything. I was stuck listening to bible thumpers because I couldn't figure out how to change the channel on a nighttime ride recently (turning off the radio wasn't really an option).

ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4089 on: May 23, 2018, 04:50:42 AM »
Quote
sedan.”

Model 3 is climbing to the top of its own segment even faster as Tesla starts to produce the vehicle in higher volumes.

During the first quarter, production was still fairly limited, but deliveries were mostly concentrated in California and it was enough for Tesla to take the top position.

According to the California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA), 3,723 Model 3 vehicles were registered between January and March, which pushed the vehicle to the top of what they refer to as the ‘near luxury’ segment:

The best selling car in the segment is an all electric! That is good news.

https://electrek.co/2018/05/22/tesla-model-3-beats-bmw-3-series-mercedes-c-class-best-selling-california-report/
Full report embeded in the article.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4090 on: May 23, 2018, 01:25:02 PM »
May 23, 2018:

“#Tesla registered 7,237 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 51699. ...”
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/999181212940886016

That makes 17,980 for May — so far....

“And the graph after that tweet….”
https://twitter.com/chadanuk/status/999198471990185984
Image below.
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4091 on: May 23, 2018, 03:49:20 PM »
For those of you who prefer knobs and switches to a central screen.

Electric Range Rover | Fully Charged

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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4092 on: May 23, 2018, 04:26:47 PM »
Love it !
All it needs is the steering wheel moved to the proper side, and a whip antenna with a flag so they can tell that you're coming. ;D
Terry

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4093 on: May 23, 2018, 07:59:06 PM »
Love it !
All it needs is the steering wheel moved to the proper side, and a whip antenna with a flag so they can tell that you're coming. ;D
Terry

The proper side, you say? It's easier for a right-handed person to mount a bicycle, motorbike, or horse from the left, and thus more practical for the side of the road to be there, whereas with more box-shaped vehicles the side makes no difference except regarding which side you put the wheel. 65% of the world's population persist in doing this wrong, however, for interesting historical reasons. https://www.worldstandards.eu/cars/driving-on-the-left/

magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4094 on: May 23, 2018, 08:45:27 PM »
Love it !
All it needs is the steering wheel moved to the proper side, and a whip antenna with a flag so they can tell that you're coming. ;D
Terry

The proper side, you say? It's easier for a right-handed person to mount a bicycle, motorbike, or horse from the left, and thus more practical for the side of the road to be there, whereas with more box-shaped vehicles the side makes no difference except regarding which side you put the wheel. 65% of the world's population persist in doing this wrong, however, for interesting historical reasons. https://www.worldstandards.eu/cars/driving-on-the-left/

i'm right handed and mount my motorbike from the left side and do not find it easier at all to do it the other way around.

you may have your opinion of course but the kind of statement of fact which is no fact at all is not helpful IMO, it just would launch a dispute about which side is right while it does not matter, it's personal preference probably and then the discussion should be about more electrified cars.

if i misse a humor or sarcasm, i'm sorry, else that's what i thought while reading.
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Paddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4095 on: May 23, 2018, 09:51:34 PM »
I was being a bit tongue in cheek, but you just said yourself that you find it easier mounting from the left... would that not be more convenient if travelling on the left side of the road?

gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4096 on: May 23, 2018, 10:47:29 PM »
I was being a bit tongue in cheek, but you just said yourself that you find it easier mounting from the left... would that not be more convenient if travelling on the left side of the road?
You should not be travelling while you are mounting the vehicle no matter what side you use to mount or drive (unless you are a trick horse rider at the rodeo).
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4097 on: May 24, 2018, 01:07:56 AM »
Honda is working on affordable all-electric Fit-based car with biggest battery maker for global release
Quote
Honda is currently seen as lagging behind when it comes to electrification at this moment with very little electric vehicle efforts.  But the Japanese automaker is now reportedly working on an important new global electric vehicle program in partnership with CATL, China’s biggest battery maker.

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) has been signing a lot of contracts with automakers lately, including the Nissan-Renault, NEVS, and possibly even Apple.  Now Nikkei reports that they are partnering with Honda on an important electric car program based on the Fit:

“The two companies will develop the car based on Honda’s Fit mini vehicle. The goal is to create an affordable electric car priced at slightly more than 2 million yen ($18,000) equipped with a small battery and having a relatively short range of 300km on a single charge.”

They are reportedly planning for 100,000 units per year, which is significantly more than most EV programs today aside from Tesla’s Model 3 production program.

According to Nikkei’s report, they are aiming for a start of production in 2020 and the vehicle will be available in China and other markets. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/05/23/honda-fit-electric-battery-maker-global-electric-car/

Note:  the range of 300 km (186 miles) is likely based on the Chinese standard.
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ghoti

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« Reply #4098 on: May 24, 2018, 01:16:43 AM »
This version of electric FIT will effectively only be sold in China. Chinese battery maker because otherwise they might be told they don't comply with content rules. Low price and low range because China has an EV mandate requiring them to sell a minimum percentage of EVs - the rest of their sales will be normal gas guzzlers.

All the big global car makers are planning the same way - build enough low price low range EVs to allow them to sell their gas guzzlers in China.

Paddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4099 on: May 24, 2018, 08:28:54 AM »
I was being a bit tongue in cheek, but you just said yourself that you find it easier mounting from the left... would that not be more convenient if travelling on the left side of the road?
You should not be travelling while you are mounting the vehicle no matter what side you use to mount or drive (unless you are a trick horse rider at the rodeo).

Who said anything about that? I'm talking about mounting at the side of the road.