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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4250 on: June 08, 2018, 07:19:42 PM »
From the internet: the pronunciation of "change" is [CHānj].  So the "j" is the real thing!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4251 on: June 08, 2018, 07:33:11 PM »
U.K. study:  ”Switching 1 million cars from diesel to electric would save more than £360 million per year in health costs from local air pollution.”

Work from home to cut car pollution deaths, Oxford study suggests 
Quote
..."Cars and vans are responsible for 10,000 early deaths each year, and diesel vehicles are the main problem unfortunately.

"The valuation of health effects associated with diesel vehicles are at least five times greater than those associated with petrol vehicles, and around 20 times greater than battery electric vehicles."

Chris Large from charity Global Action Plan said: “Swapping one in four car journeys in urban areas for walking or cycling could save over £1.1 billion in health damage costs per year. Switching 1 million cars from diesel to electric would save more than £360 million per year in health costs from local air pollution.” ...
...
The authors of the report called for radical changes in lifestyles, even if that meant being confined to the home.

They said the “inconvenient truth” was that individuals needed to do more to reduce reliance on cars, and should stay at home more if they could not find a “cleaner travel mode”.

“Options you can do today include tele-shopping, tele-working, tele-conferencing or tele-socialising,” the study recommends. ...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/06/05/work-home-cut-car-pollution-deaths-oxford-study-suggests/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4252 on: June 08, 2018, 07:58:47 PM »
Yes apparently, from your link Sig.
...

LOL.  Given the combination of so many recent Chinese-funded EV startups (this one is from Hong Kong), with Chinese names, and a previous study of the Chinese language, my first thought was Chan-Je might be a mash-up of something in Cantonese, which is spoken in Hong Kong.  I suppose it still could be, behind the scenes....  ;)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4253 on: June 08, 2018, 10:02:12 PM »
Porsche's electric challenge to Tesla — formerly known as the Mission E and on Friday renamed the Taycan — is drawing "exceptional" interest ahead of its 2019 debut, the automaker's head of U.S. operations told USA TODAY.

"Our dealers are telling us that they can’t have this car soon enough."


Porsche's U.S. CEO: Newly renamed Taycan electric sedan drawing 'exceptional' interest
https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2018/06/08/porsche-ceo-newly-renamed-taycan-electric-sedan-drawing-exceptional-interest/680766002/
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Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4254 on: June 08, 2018, 10:11:46 PM »
Quote
"Our dealers are telling us that they can’t have this car soon enough."

They are not going to be able to keep up with demand:

1)  It is about the same cost as many other Porsche's
2)  Think about the maintenance cost on an ICE Porsche....think of all the money that will be saved.
3)  Think about the money saved on gasoline
4)  And it LOOKS like a Porsche .... and per the reviews from the PRE production car, it DRIVES like a Porsche.

I just keep thinking about ALL THE ICE vehicles that will be for sale in coming years.  Anyone who buys an ICE vehicle in the next few years is going to take an absolute BATH when they go to trade in that ICE vehicle.

That is why I have said before.... that in about 2 - 3 years from now, potential car buyers are going to "go on strike" regarding ICE vehicles.  They will extend the life of their current ICE vehicle before they spend good money on a NEW ICE vehicle.  If there isn't an EV that they want YET ..... they'll wait another year or two when there are more EV's on the road.  The DEMAND for ICE vehicles will start to dry up.




 
« Last Edit: June 08, 2018, 10:18:39 PM by Buddy »
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4255 on: June 08, 2018, 10:18:14 PM »
It's not as quick as the Tesla S.  3.4 seconds vs. 2.4 0 to 60. 

I wonder if it can hold top speed for a few laps around the track.  The Tesla battery cooling system was not designed for maintaining top speed for extended periods.  Porsche has gotten into Formula e racing so they might have installed  a larger cooling system.

Good to see other manufacturers getting into the game.  But I suspect the Tesla Roadster II is likely blow the Taycan off the road.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4256 on: June 09, 2018, 12:08:09 AM »
It's not as quick as the Tesla S.  3.4 seconds vs. 2.4 0 to 60. 

I wonder if it can hold top speed for a few laps around the track.  The Tesla battery cooling system was not designed for maintaining top speed for extended periods.  Porsche has gotten into Formula e racing so they might have installed  a larger cooling system.

Good to see other manufacturers getting into the game.  But I suspect the Tesla Roadster II is likely blow the Taycan off the road.

Porsche designed their car to be more of a track car, to race for longer distances, as opposed to quickest starts but less race endurance like the Tesla.  So the Porsche should make Nurburgring fans happy.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4257 on: June 09, 2018, 12:35:06 AM »
Quote
"Our dealers are telling us that they can’t have this car soon enough."

They are not going to be able to keep up with demand:
....

Yes.  The quote is interesting on several levels.   

One: Is it true? Or is it the customers who are demanding the car, not the dealers? We’ve discussed how EVs will hurt the dealer model — at least in the US — because dealers make most of their profits from service, not sales, and EVs required much less maintenance.  (On the other hand, it is a Porsche ;) — a historically a high-maintenance vehicle — so perhaps the trend will continue....)

Two:  If the dealers are in fact begging for the car, is it because their ICE car sales have declined?  And they see this EV as their only salvation?  No doubt their customers are asking them about it, and perhaps are delaying purchases waiting for it — it is a hotly anticipated car.

Three:  Whatever feelings Porsche had that Porsche customers don’t want to make the switch from powerful ICE engines to EVs is now disproven.  They can’t use that as an excuse any longer.  Which is not to say there aren’t plenty of other reasons the company doesn’t want to change. (All those ICE jobs, suppliers, assets, etc., etc.)
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numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4258 on: June 09, 2018, 04:33:38 AM »
Buddy: somehow I don’t think the cost savings are really going to figure in the thinking of someone buying a Porsche.

Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4259 on: June 09, 2018, 05:25:13 AM »
Numerous:

We’re NOT talking about a Lamborghini or Ferrari.  We’re talking about a Porsche.  Apparently you would be suprised at both the cost ..... AND that some people with a Porsche don’t like wasting their money any more than you do.

There is a company that uses Tesla’s in their limo service in Southern California, and they compared the cost of maintenance for their Tesla’s vs the cost of maintenance if they would have used a 7 series BMW (maintenance costs approximately equal to Porsche).  The difference is staggering, even on a “per car” basis.

One of the things that dealers don’t like about electric cars .... already mentioned in this thread ... is that dealers don’t like the reduced maintenance of EV’s.  Maintenance is where dealers make the largest chunk of their money.
« Last Edit: June 09, 2018, 11:43:08 AM by Buddy »
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4260 on: June 09, 2018, 06:39:49 AM »
Quote
it is a Porsche ;) — a historically a high-maintenance vehicle

From the 1960s...

"Why do Porsches have two seats?"

"Gotta have a place for your mechanic to ride."

Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4261 on: June 09, 2018, 05:35:42 PM »
According to some ...... we are getting to "initial price parity" THIS YEAR between EV's and ICE vehicles.  People can quibble about whether that is true or not THIS YEAR...or NEXT YEAR.  But we are getting close.

GM .... now in partnership with Honda ..... is looking to drop their battery costs BY HALF by 2021.  Currently they have higher costs than Tesla, so they have some catching up to do.  But Tesla want's to drop their won costs by 30% over the coming few years.

All the while....we are "heading for a possible cliff" (actually a SERIES OF CLIFFS) in coming years: 

1) Another incredible melt season in Greenland
2) New records of ice melt in the Arctic
3) New records of ice melt in the Antarctic
4) More record flooding
5) More record forest fires (which will again swallow cities)

Will those "events"....or some of those events.....happen this year, next year, the year after?  We're obviously to the point where some of them happen each and every year....with some being more pronounced than others.  But those events keep pushing more and more of the public to push for change.

The change to EV's which has so far been stalled because of cost.... is now to the point of breaking through that barrier.  At the same time..... the reason that we should have been working on this for DECADES (the ecological reasons) are now becoming unavoidable ... and we are getting close to the psychological tipping point there as well, where all but the diehard oil and gas liars are now seeing it.

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/electric-car-costs-will-fall-and-nickel-content-rise-under-general-motors-honda-deal/
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numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4262 on: June 09, 2018, 06:16:26 PM »
The switch to EVs is currently moving as fast as new production comes on line. Why are you saying cost is the issue?

For fleets, cost parity happened a couple years ago and it’s down to the speed of deployment.

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4263 on: June 09, 2018, 07:04:16 PM »
In reality, at the present EV deployment is limted by availability and speed of production, and I guess that is what Porsche dealers are saying as well: enough customer demand exists at current price levels and product specifications.

gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4264 on: June 09, 2018, 08:39:08 PM »
One for Bob Wallace & Others captured by personal mobility?

Inexpensive progress
Let's say goodbye to hedges
And roads with grassy edges
And winding country lanes
Let all things travel faster
Where motor-car is master
Till only Speed remains.

John Betjeman  (c1955) -- about the time that Britain got its first motorway.

You can hear the whole poem read by Sir John (it is in copyright so could not get the whole poem) on this BBCvideo :-
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00x028k

Systemic isolation = person in a car


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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4265 on: June 09, 2018, 09:24:12 PM »
One for gerontocrat...

“Looking but not seeing is the hearing but not understanding of the eye.”
― Mokokoma Mokhonoana

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4266 on: June 10, 2018, 03:01:26 PM »
Hardware, this time.

German regulator found defeat devices in Daimler diesel cars: BamS
Quote
... previous Daimler comments objecting to the KBA stance that switch-off devices were in breach of regulations.

Daimler, like other car manufacturers, uses urea nitrate liquids to naturalize nitrogen oxide emissions in exhaust fumes. However, the KBA has taken issue with the emission control features amid suspicion they allow vehicles to emit excess pollution without detection.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-daimler-software-kba/german-regulator-found-defeat-devices-in-daimler-diesel-cars-bams-idUSKCN1J50ZR
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4267 on: June 10, 2018, 03:32:15 PM »
Inexpensive Progress  by John Betjeman

Encase your legs in nylons,
Bestride your hills with pylons
O age without a soul;
Away with gentle willows
And all the elmy billows
That through your valleys roll.

Let's say goodbye to hedges
And roads with grassy edges
And winding country lanes;
Let all things travel faster
Where motor car is master
Till only Speed remains.

Destroy the ancient inn-signs
But strew the roads with tin signs
'Keep Left,' 'M4,' 'Keep Out!'
Command, instruction, warning,
Repetitive adorning
The rockeried roundabout;

For every raw obscenity
Must have its small 'amenity,'
Its patch of shaven green,
And hoardings look a wonder
In banks of floribunda
With floodlights in between.

Leave no old village standing
Which could provide a landing
For aeroplanes to roar,
But spare such cheap defacements
As huts with shattered casements
Unlived-in since the war.

Let no provincial High Street
Which might be your or my street
Look as it used to do,
But let the chain stores place here
Their miles of black glass facia
And traffic thunder through.

And if there is some scenery,
Some unpretentious greenery,
Surviving anywhere,
It does not need protecting
For soon we'll be erecting
A Power Station there.

When all our roads are lighted
By concrete monsters sited
Like gallows overhead,
Bathed in the yellow vomit
Each monster belches from it,
We'll know that we are dead.

If we are to survive this crisis, we need to cultivate an artists sensibility of the world around us.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4268 on: June 10, 2018, 07:08:04 PM »
“Don't it always seem to go
That you don't know what you've got till it's gone
They paved paradise and put up a parking lot”

- Joni Mitchell, ‘Big Yellow Taxi’

http://www.lyricsfreak.com/j/joni+mitchell/big+yellow+taxi_20075370.html
« Last Edit: June 10, 2018, 07:19:36 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4269 on: June 10, 2018, 07:11:24 PM »
Quote
If we are to survive this crisis, we need to cultivate an artists sensibility of the world around us.

If we are to survive this crisis we must find things that work.

Try hauling three toddlers, groceries, and yourself with your bum knee on a two wheeler in a driving rain. 

Try hauling your aged parent to their doctor's appointment.

Do that and you'll understand why bikes haven't replaced cars.

And

Try reading with understanding what I write so you don't post incorrect things like -

"One for Bob Wallace & Others captured by personal mobility?"

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4270 on: June 10, 2018, 07:46:32 PM »
Quote
If we are to survive this crisis, we need to cultivate an artists sensibility of the world around us.

If we are to survive this crisis we must find things that work

We need both.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4271 on: June 10, 2018, 08:03:50 PM »
Elon -

Quote
“We think at the cell level probably we can do better than $100/kWh maybe later this year … depending upon [stable] commodity prices…. [W]ith further improvements to the cell chemistry, the production process, and more vertical integration on the cell side, for example, integrating the production of cathode and anode materials at the Gigafactory, and improved design of the module and pack, we think long-term we can get below $100/kWh at the pack level. Which is really the key figure of merit for a car. But long-term meaning definitely less than 2 years.”

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/09/100-kwh-tesla-battery-cells-this-year-100-kwh-tesla-battery-packs-in-2020/


Around $100/kWh for cells EVs hit (or even fall below) manufacturing cost parity with ICEVs.  At $100/kWh for complete battery packs EVs definitely cost less to manufacture than similar-feature ICEVs.

$100/kWh packs mean the death toll for petroleum fueled vehicles.

This, along with both onshore wind and PV solar soon reaching $0.02/kWh (Unsubsidized) opens the door for movement away from fossil fuels at rates which should keep us from experiencing extreme climate change.

When it becomes cheaper to purchase and cheaper to drive an EV most people will not find ICEVs attractive.  As the cost of wind and solar drop below the cost of fuel for coal and gas plants utilities* will quickly move to renewable energy.  Personal transportation and grid electricity mostly fossil fuel free by 2040 is not at all unlikely. 

*Those utilities that operate in a competitive market or are efficiently regulated.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4272 on: June 10, 2018, 09:08:18 PM »
“Dear @bmu could you please explain to me what is hapenning in #Germany, especially in #NRW. We have long term deadly levels of PM 2.5 micro particles pollution reaching levels of 228 (worse/similar to China). PLEASE share this!!! #airquality #pollution #Cancer @WHO @cleantechnica”

https://twitter.com/asychov/status/1005339593422594048
Images below; more at the link.
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Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4273 on: June 11, 2018, 05:49:03 AM »
Quote
If we are to survive this crisis, we need to cultivate an artists sensibility of the world around us.

If we are to survive this crisis we must find things that work

We need both.
We've had both for a long time.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4274 on: June 11, 2018, 06:12:35 PM »
Tesla Autopilot update.  Now with more ‘nag.’

Tesla’s latest Autopilot update comes with more ‘nag’ to make sure drivers keep their hands on the wheel
https://electrek.co/2018/06/11/tesla-autopilot-update-nag-hands-wheel/


Tesla’s AI director gives insights into Autopilot’s computer vision and neural net development
https://electrek.co/2018/06/11/tesla-ai-director-insights-autopilot-computer-vision-neural-net/

Tesla’s version 9 software update is coming in August with first ‘full self-driving features’, says Elon Musk
https://electrek.co/2018/06/10/tesla-version-9-software-update-fully-self-driving-features-elon-musk/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4275 on: June 11, 2018, 08:11:53 PM »
EV Obsession does some math on the effects later this year of the Tesla Model 3 disrupting the small luxury car market in the U.S. at volumes of 5,000 to 6,000 per week.

TESLA TO TAKE UP TO 50% OF US SMALL LUXURY MARKET — BMW, MERCEDES & AUDI GET DISRUPTED
Quote
...The German luxury brands achieved a combined 22,911 average monthly sales in 2017, some 61.4% of the total market. Other significant players in the segment include Infinity, Lexus and Acura which share 10,406 monthly sales (just under 28% of the market), and the remaining 10% is divided between Volvo, Cadillac, Jaguar and Alfa Romeo.

Model 3 Enters

Now consider that the model 3 will soon deliver into this same segment monthly volumes between 21,600 (at 5,000/week) and 26,000 (at 6,000/week). Let’s call it 24,000 per month — that’s over 62% of the entire segment’s average volume in 2017. It is more than BMW, Mercedes and Audi’s combined volume, who have been very happy to have the lion’s share of the segment to themselves up till now. Thus there can be no question that all the incumbents in this segment are going to be massively disrupted.

The only small comfort that the existing players can hope for is that, since some of the model 3’s buyers will likely be converting from a couple of nearby segments, the overall segment volume may grow somewhat (while those nearby segments correspondingly shrink a little), at least in the short term. But, inevitably, the traditional leaders of the segment will still lose a great deal of their share of the volume.

Even if the segment grows from 37K to 50K per month (a stretch), the model 3 will still take around half of it and the incumbents will see their combined sales cut from 37K to 26K loosing effectively 30% of their sales. Arguably, the smaller brands tend to have more loyal customers (think Volvo and Jaguar owners), so the larger brands may lose a marginally higher share.

The US small luxury car segment is already quite mature (and arguably on a gradual downward slope in recent years) so the scope for it to grow in its entirety in the medium to long term would seem to be limited. More likely than the above growth scenario of 50K monthly units, as the dust settles, the segment may grow in the short term to somewhere between 40K and 45K per month (lets average that to 42.5K), with Tesla taking around 24K. In this case the non-Tesla volume will be cut from 37K to 18.5K. That’s less than half the previous volume to be shared between the incumbents. If these estimates turn out to be roughly accurate, here’s what the chart will look like….
https://evobsession.com/tesla-to-take-up-to-50-of-us-small-luxury-market-bmw-mercedes-audi-get-disrupted/

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4276 on: June 11, 2018, 08:14:49 PM »
How long to reach the top of their respective U.S. market segment:

“Model S did it in 4 years.
Model X did it in 2 years.
Model 3 did it in 10 months.

Now imagine Model Y.”
https://twitter.com/ValueAnalyst1/status/1005451713720016896
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sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4277 on: June 11, 2018, 08:59:53 PM »
Surprise: traffic signals favour cars over pedestrians.

"The consequences of making it easier to drive and harder to walk are consistent with the rise of vehicle-dominated cities"

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-traffic-favour-cars-discourage.html

sidd

Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4278 on: June 11, 2018, 09:38:49 PM »
Tesla is going to force other car makers to speed up their transition from ICE to EV.  They really don’t have much of a choice ..... especially in an environment of dropping battery cost of about 15% each year.  That is really going to push the other car manufacturers.  Another 2 or 3 years from now and the real “avalanche” kicks in.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4279 on: June 11, 2018, 10:30:28 PM »
Surprise: traffic signals favour cars over pedestrians.

"The consequences of making it easier to drive and harder to walk are consistent with the rise of vehicle-dominated cities"

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-traffic-favour-cars-discourage.html

sidd
And in our old city back in the UK,
- the pavements (sidewalks) are in far worse condition than the road surfaces,
- in winter when it snows they salt the roads but not the sidewalks.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4280 on: June 11, 2018, 11:21:41 PM »
The New Urbanists have some ideas:

http://www.newurbanism.org/pedestrian.html

sidd


numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4281 on: June 11, 2018, 11:43:44 PM »
I’m curious what Trump’s trade war is going to do. The auto industry is particularly affected — it needs a lot of steel and aluminium (much of it imported, Al particularly from Canada), and a lot of cars and car parts are imported from Canada.

The Canadian economy stands to be devastated.

Independent of that minor detail, the US economy is going to get hit with cars suddenly being a bit more expensive. Steel cars more than aluminium cars. Cars depending on deep supply chains more than vertically integrated car makers.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4282 on: June 12, 2018, 07:31:39 PM »
I’m curious what Trump’s trade war is going to do. The auto industry is particularly affected — it needs a lot of steel and aluminium (much of it imported, Al particularly from Canada), and a lot of cars and car parts are imported from Canada.

The Canadian economy stands to be devastated.

Independent of that minor detail, the US economy is going to get hit with cars suddenly being a bit more expensive. Steel cars more than aluminium cars. Cars depending on deep supply chains more than vertically integrated car makers.

The Trump tariff on “imported cars” would also significantly hurt U.S. carmakers.

Quote
...not only do most of the targeted manufacturers have factories in the US, but American carmakers are among the largest importers of vehicles from Canada and Mexico.

The move would also come at a time when China—the world's largest car market—is moving in the opposite direction, lowering taxes on imported vehicles from 25 to 15 percent.

"The Honda Accord is not a threat to our national security," tweeted Jeb Hensarling, the Republican head of the House Finance Committee.  "However, taxing it with trade tariffs is a threat to the economic security of millions of hardworking American families," he wrote.

The Trade Partnership Worldwide consultancy estimates that additional taxes of 25 percent would create 92,000 industrial jobs in the US but would result in the destruction of 250,000 jobs in the larger economy.

About one million jobs are currently tied to the auto industry, up from 660,000 in 2010, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. ...
https://phys.org/news/2018-06-tariffs-car-imports-double-edged-sword.html.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4283 on: June 12, 2018, 08:23:32 PM »
Surprise: traffic signals favour cars over pedestrians.

"The consequences of making it easier to drive and harder to walk are consistent with the rise of vehicle-dominated cities"

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-traffic-favour-cars-discourage.html

sidd

We need better control systems.

I’ve seen a video animation of city traffic (it might be from one of Tony Seba’s presentations) where, once vehicles can all communicate with each other, no traffic lights are needed because cars move forward, turn, slow, or wait as needed, on their own.  The cars know each other’s intentions and calculate how to proceed safely.

How to integrate pedestrians?  Probably would be safest for them to step onto a moving car-like platform to cross the road, so it could communicate with the cars, too, and eliminate (most) human unpredictability — as well as cutting down the time needed to cross the street.  Perhaps one or two of them circle the intersection, pausing at each corner for pedestrians to get off or on.

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4284 on: June 12, 2018, 08:53:11 PM »
Surprise: traffic signals favour cars over pedestrians.

"The consequences of making it easier to drive and harder to walk are consistent with the rise of vehicle-dominated cities"

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-traffic-favour-cars-discourage.html

sidd

How to integrate pedestrians?  Probably would be safest for them to step onto a moving car-like platform to cross the road, so it could communicate with the cars, too, and eliminate (most) human unpredictability — as well as cutting down the time needed to cross the street.  Perhaps one or two of them circle the intersection, pausing at each corner for pedestrians to get off or on.

I do not want to be integrated. I know I as a pedestrian am just a bloody nuisance but I am content with that.
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wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4285 on: June 12, 2018, 08:56:34 PM »
It is much more likely that human pedestrians will have chips implanted in their brains to automatically keep them from stepping in front of these cars.

What a wonderful savings of life and injury this will represent!

A wonderful world awaits us. We only have to allow ourselves to be 'adjusted' enough to fit well into it!  :)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4286 on: June 12, 2018, 09:02:57 PM »
Surprise: traffic signals favour cars over pedestrians.

"The consequences of making it easier to drive and harder to walk are consistent with the rise of vehicle-dominated cities"

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-traffic-favour-cars-discourage.html

sidd

How to integrate pedestrians?  Probably would be safest for them to step onto a moving car-like platform to cross the road, so it could communicate with the cars, too, and eliminate (most) human unpredictability — as well as cutting down the time needed to cross the street.  Perhaps one or two of them circle the intersection, pausing at each corner for pedestrians to get off or on.

I do not want to be integrated. I know I as a pedestrian am just a bloody nuisance but I am content with that.

 ;D

For you, we have the ring-road model, where vehicles enter the city only on a few streets with limited destinations.  No parking, no “through traffic”!

You can still fight it out with the bicyclists and e-scooter folks, though. ;)
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4287 on: June 12, 2018, 09:54:24 PM »
...
I do not want to be integrated. I know I as a pedestrian am just a bloody nuisance but I am content with that.

I don't remember the SiFi book, but the body was run over and the car's automatic washer washed the blood and guts off.  It was just chance a person in the car saw the deceased get hit, as most folks fully darken the car windows for privacy.

Just for the record: I'll miss you, gerontocrat!
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Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4288 on: June 13, 2018, 07:15:56 AM »
It is much more likely that human pedestrians will have chips implanted in their brains to automatically keep them from stepping in front of these cars.

What a wonderful savings of life and injury this will represent!

A wonderful world awaits us. We only have to allow ourselves to be 'adjusted' enough to fit well into it!  :)
There's always Tor's option above, before the assimilation process...

Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4289 on: June 13, 2018, 06:54:31 PM »
Surprise: traffic signals favour cars over pedestrians.

"The consequences of making it easier to drive and harder to walk are consistent with the rise of vehicle-dominated cities"

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-traffic-favour-cars-discourage.html

sidd

We need better control systems.

I’ve seen a video animation of city traffic (it might be from one of Tony Seba’s presentations) where, once vehicles can all communicate with each other, no traffic lights are needed because cars move forward, turn, slow, or wait as needed, on their own.  The cars know each other’s intentions and calculate how to proceed safely.

How to integrate pedestrians?  Probably would be safest for them to step onto a moving car-like platform to cross the road, so it could communicate with the cars, too, and eliminate (most) human unpredictability — as well as cutting down the time needed to cross the street.  Perhaps one or two of them circle the intersection, pausing at each corner for pedestrians to get off or on.

I love you but you are nuts!!!

gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4290 on: June 13, 2018, 07:10:21 PM »
Surprise: traffic signals favour cars over pedestrians.

"The consequences of making it easier to drive and harder to walk are consistent with the rise of vehicle-dominated cities"

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-traffic-favour-cars-discourage.html

sidd

How to integrate pedestrians?  Probably would be safest for them to step onto a moving car-like platform to cross the road, so it could communicate with the cars, too, and eliminate (most) human unpredictability — as well as cutting down the time needed to cross the street.  Perhaps one or two of them circle the intersection, pausing at each corner for pedestrians to get off or on.

I do not want to be integrated. I know I as a pedestrian am just a bloody nuisance but I am content with that.

 ;D

For you, we have the ring-road model, where vehicles enter the city only on a few streets with limited destinations.  No parking, no “through traffic”!

You can still fight it out with the bicyclists and e-scooter folks, though. ;)

My personal solution is (in about 3 weeks) - Get out of Dodge.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4291 on: June 13, 2018, 07:18:15 PM »
And this single graph should only serve to dampen our enthusiasm regarding the transition to EV's. The graph suggests that we should expect 1/2 million of these EV's to be sold annually in the near term. In 2017, 1.1 million BEV's and PHEV's of all model types were sold globally.

 https://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-rapid-growth-in-global-electric-vehicle-sales-in-4-charts-2018-1

In the past 4 years, 310 million vehicles were purchased worldwide. 308 million of these use fossil fuel exclusively.  These cars will be on the road for perhaps a decade, longer in poorer countries. In 2018, 80 million cars will be purchased and at least 78 million of them will be using fossil fuels for just as long.

 https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990/

In 2015, it was estimated that there were 1.25 billion vehicles in operation on the planet.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281134/number-of-vehicles-in-use-worldwide/

While EV sales will continue to grow exponentially, it will take some time for gas powered vehicles to disappear, only to be found at car shows and in museums.


Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4292 on: June 13, 2018, 07:34:59 PM »
Quote
While EV sales will continue to grow exponentially, it will take some time for gas powered vehicles to be taken off the road.

It will.  But we seem to be at a tipping point where EVs become cheaper to manufacture than ICEVs.  And EVs are already cheaper to operate.  That creates an economic turning point.  As people get some basic experience with EVs it will become very hard to sell ICEVs rather than a less expensive to own and operate EV.

The average lifespan for an ICEV in the US is about 12 years.  That suggests fleet turnover in around 20 years.  Most likely it will happen quicker once EVs are commonly available. People won't bother with the serious repairs needed to keep a used ICEV on the road when the cost of repairs and fuel savings will pay for a more reliable used EV.

We're seeing lower cost, limited range (~100 miles) EVs being introduced in countries that don't have US/EU level safety standards.  Those cars are likely to be very popular in less developed countries where fuel and repair parts can often be expensive.  If so, that kills the "third life" for ICEVs that are sold new, then used, and then exported from more developed countries.  The bottom collapses out from under ICEV retained value.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4293 on: June 13, 2018, 07:50:22 PM »
So, let's play a math game.

1.) There are 1.2 billion vehicles on the road worldwide. (Likely more now since this estimate was made in 2015 but we'll say 1.2 billion.)

2.) Annual car sales are 80 million per year so the 1.2 billion cars represent 15 years of car sales and thus all cars are typically replaced within 15 years. (Actually longer than this since car sales only recently hit 80 million annually but we will say that all cars are replaced within 15 years.)

3.) EV sales in 2017 were 1.1 million. Lets say 1 million and have the manufacture and sales of EV's continue to grow exponentially, doubling every year from this point forward. In 2018, sales will be 2 million. In 2019, 4 million. In 2020, 8 million. In 2021, 16 million. In 2022, 32 million. In 2023, 64 million. and finally, in 2024, EV sales capture the entire new vehicle market worldwide. (Don't ask me how we actually build 64 million EV's six years from now but, remember, this is only a game. We're counting on you, Elon.)

From 2024 on, we are finally replacing all gas powered vehicles taken off the road with EV's and in 2039, fifteen years later, the last gas powered vehicle goes to the junkyard.

All gas powered vehicles off the road in 2 decades would be fantastic but this would only happen if my quite fanciful assumptions were to become reality.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2018, 08:04:35 PM by Shared Humanity »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4294 on: June 13, 2018, 07:56:02 PM »
...
We need better control systems.

I’ve seen a video animation of city traffic (it might be from one of Tony Seba’s presentations) where, once vehicles can all communicate with each other, no traffic lights are needed because cars move forward, turn, slow, or wait as needed, on their own.  The cars know each other’s intentions and calculate how to proceed safely.

How to integrate pedestrians?  Probably would be safest for them to step onto a moving car-like platform to cross the road, so it could communicate with the cars, too, and eliminate (most) human unpredictability — as well as cutting down the time needed to cross the street.  Perhaps one or two of them circle the intersection, pausing at each corner for pedestrians to get off or on.

I love you but you are nuts!!!

 ;D  Sometimes, that’s exactly what’s needed!

But seriously, I think we’ve about reached “peak street traffic” in cities.  Between moving traffic underground (tunnels) to “personalized mass transit” to ring-roads and pedestrian boulevards, city streets should become more civilized over time.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4295 on: June 13, 2018, 08:01:03 PM »

But seriously, I think we’ve about reached “peak street traffic” in cities.  Between moving traffic underground (tunnels) to “personalized mass transit” to ring-roads and pedestrian boulevards, city streets should become more civilized over time.

This is happening in Chicago. When major streets and bridges are being rebuilt, vehicle lanes are routinely removed, replaced by bike lanes.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4296 on: June 13, 2018, 08:06:16 PM »
So, let's play a math game.

1.) There are 1.2 billion vehicles on the road worldwide. (Likely more now since this estimate was made in 2015 but we'll say 1.2 billion.)

2.) Annual car sales are 80 million per year so the 1.2 billion cars represent 15 years of car sales and thus all cars are typically replaced within 15 years. (Actually longer than this since car sales only recently hit 80 million annually but we will say that all cars are replaced within 15 years.)

3.) EV sales in 2017 were 1.1 million. Lets say 1 million and have the manufacture and sales of EV's continue to grow exponentially, doubling every year from this point forward. In 2018, sales will be 2 million. In 2019, 4 million. In 2020, 8 million. In 2021, 16 million. In 2022, 32 million. In 2023, 64 million. and finally, in 2024, EV sales capture the entire new vehicle market worldwide. (Don't ask me how we actually build 64 million EV's six years from now but, remember, this is only a game.)

From 2024 on, we are finally replacing all gas powered vehicles taken off the road with EV's and in 2039, fifteen years later, the last gas powered vehicle goes to the junkyard.

The biggest missing factor here may be:  what does autonomous driving do to the global vehicle fleet?  Does it sharply reduce the need for personal vehicles?  Does it sharply increase the number of “fleet vehicles” providing transport services? 

If hyperloops become common in populated regions, how much will road transportation be reduced?


It’s hard to say what total vehicle sales will look like in ten years, but I have a feeling EVs won’t be replacing ICE cars one-for-one.

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4297 on: June 13, 2018, 08:12:10 PM »
So why even play this numbers game? It allows you to grapple with the magnitude of any problem.

What this game tells me is focusing only on replacing our existing car market with EV's does not get us where we need to be. Transforming the car manufacturing industry from gas to EV's while satisfying all of the current vehicle demand represents a BAU (green growth) approach. For us to succeed, we need to also find ways to drastically reduce the number of vehicles in operation. This will require that we rethink many of the things we take for granted when it comes to personal mobility.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4298 on: June 13, 2018, 08:16:20 PM »

The biggest missing factor here may be:  what does autonomous driving do to the global vehicle fleet?  Does it sharply reduce the need for personal vehicles?  Does it sharply increase the number of “fleet vehicles” providing transport services? 

If hyperloops become common in populated regions, how much will road transportation be reduced?


It’s hard to say what total vehicle sales will look like in ten years, but I have a feeling EVs won’t be replacing ICE cars one-for-one.

I agree. We need to imagine a future where meeting the mobility needs for individuals can be done with far fewer vehicles on the road. Not as easy as it sounds as our built infrastructure assumes the kind of mobility that autos afforded us in the 20th century. And in the U.S., there is an entire mystique around your car, the ability to just get up and go.

This graph for car production, highlights the challenge.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2018, 08:22:26 PM by Shared Humanity »

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4299 on: June 13, 2018, 08:32:23 PM »
I say the environment needs another 2008. The politicians and central bankers are fighting tooth and nail to prop up the economy on mountains of debt. Off-topic here I know, but that chart by SH above is what the environment needs.
But I think what the numbers game tells us is that the Green BAU transition will not be fast enough to save us from a lot of climate change. Still, as discussed ad nauseum elsewhere on the forum, it's the only tool that works in practice for the current population and politics. Hopefully some magic cultural transformation will save us - but I am guessing not.
Hyperloop or plain Loop won't save us either, as its roll-out in the next ten years will be slow to seriously affect the numbers game. Digging tunnels takes time even with the Boring technology, with permits and bureaucracy and whatever.
And remember, the global population is growing.