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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4300 on: June 10, 2018, 09:08:18 PM »
“Dear @bmu could you please explain to me what is hapenning in #Germany, especially in #NRW. We have long term deadly levels of PM 2.5 micro particles pollution reaching levels of 228 (worse/similar to China). PLEASE share this!!! #airquality #pollution #Cancer @WHO @cleantechnica”

https://twitter.com/asychov/status/1005339593422594048
Images below; more at the link.
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Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4301 on: June 11, 2018, 05:49:03 AM »
Quote
If we are to survive this crisis, we need to cultivate an artists sensibility of the world around us.

If we are to survive this crisis we must find things that work

We need both.
We've had both for a long time.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4302 on: June 11, 2018, 06:12:35 PM »
Tesla Autopilot update.  Now with more ‘nag.’

Tesla’s latest Autopilot update comes with more ‘nag’ to make sure drivers keep their hands on the wheel
https://electrek.co/2018/06/11/tesla-autopilot-update-nag-hands-wheel/


Tesla’s AI director gives insights into Autopilot’s computer vision and neural net development
https://electrek.co/2018/06/11/tesla-ai-director-insights-autopilot-computer-vision-neural-net/

Tesla’s version 9 software update is coming in August with first ‘full self-driving features’, says Elon Musk
https://electrek.co/2018/06/10/tesla-version-9-software-update-fully-self-driving-features-elon-musk/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4303 on: June 11, 2018, 08:11:53 PM »
EV Obsession does some math on the effects later this year of the Tesla Model 3 disrupting the small luxury car market in the U.S. at volumes of 5,000 to 6,000 per week.

TESLA TO TAKE UP TO 50% OF US SMALL LUXURY MARKET — BMW, MERCEDES & AUDI GET DISRUPTED
Quote
...The German luxury brands achieved a combined 22,911 average monthly sales in 2017, some 61.4% of the total market. Other significant players in the segment include Infinity, Lexus and Acura which share 10,406 monthly sales (just under 28% of the market), and the remaining 10% is divided between Volvo, Cadillac, Jaguar and Alfa Romeo.

Model 3 Enters

Now consider that the model 3 will soon deliver into this same segment monthly volumes between 21,600 (at 5,000/week) and 26,000 (at 6,000/week). Let’s call it 24,000 per month — that’s over 62% of the entire segment’s average volume in 2017. It is more than BMW, Mercedes and Audi’s combined volume, who have been very happy to have the lion’s share of the segment to themselves up till now. Thus there can be no question that all the incumbents in this segment are going to be massively disrupted.

The only small comfort that the existing players can hope for is that, since some of the model 3’s buyers will likely be converting from a couple of nearby segments, the overall segment volume may grow somewhat (while those nearby segments correspondingly shrink a little), at least in the short term. But, inevitably, the traditional leaders of the segment will still lose a great deal of their share of the volume.

Even if the segment grows from 37K to 50K per month (a stretch), the model 3 will still take around half of it and the incumbents will see their combined sales cut from 37K to 26K loosing effectively 30% of their sales. Arguably, the smaller brands tend to have more loyal customers (think Volvo and Jaguar owners), so the larger brands may lose a marginally higher share.

The US small luxury car segment is already quite mature (and arguably on a gradual downward slope in recent years) so the scope for it to grow in its entirety in the medium to long term would seem to be limited. More likely than the above growth scenario of 50K monthly units, as the dust settles, the segment may grow in the short term to somewhere between 40K and 45K per month (lets average that to 42.5K), with Tesla taking around 24K. In this case the non-Tesla volume will be cut from 37K to 18.5K. That’s less than half the previous volume to be shared between the incumbents. If these estimates turn out to be roughly accurate, here’s what the chart will look like….
https://evobsession.com/tesla-to-take-up-to-50-of-us-small-luxury-market-bmw-mercedes-audi-get-disrupted/

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4304 on: June 11, 2018, 08:14:49 PM »
How long to reach the top of their respective U.S. market segment:

“Model S did it in 4 years.
Model X did it in 2 years.
Model 3 did it in 10 months.

Now imagine Model Y.”
https://twitter.com/ValueAnalyst1/status/1005451713720016896
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sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4305 on: June 11, 2018, 08:59:53 PM »
Surprise: traffic signals favour cars over pedestrians.

"The consequences of making it easier to drive and harder to walk are consistent with the rise of vehicle-dominated cities"

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-traffic-favour-cars-discourage.html

sidd

Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4306 on: June 11, 2018, 09:38:49 PM »
Tesla is going to force other car makers to speed up their transition from ICE to EV.  They really don’t have much of a choice ..... especially in an environment of dropping battery cost of about 15% each year.  That is really going to push the other car manufacturers.  Another 2 or 3 years from now and the real “avalanche” kicks in.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4307 on: June 11, 2018, 10:30:28 PM »
Surprise: traffic signals favour cars over pedestrians.

"The consequences of making it easier to drive and harder to walk are consistent with the rise of vehicle-dominated cities"

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-traffic-favour-cars-discourage.html

sidd
And in our old city back in the UK,
- the pavements (sidewalks) are in far worse condition than the road surfaces,
- in winter when it snows they salt the roads but not the sidewalks.
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sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4308 on: June 11, 2018, 11:21:41 PM »
The New Urbanists have some ideas:

http://www.newurbanism.org/pedestrian.html

sidd


numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4309 on: June 11, 2018, 11:43:44 PM »
I’m curious what Trump’s trade war is going to do. The auto industry is particularly affected — it needs a lot of steel and aluminium (much of it imported, Al particularly from Canada), and a lot of cars and car parts are imported from Canada.

The Canadian economy stands to be devastated.

Independent of that minor detail, the US economy is going to get hit with cars suddenly being a bit more expensive. Steel cars more than aluminium cars. Cars depending on deep supply chains more than vertically integrated car makers.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4310 on: June 12, 2018, 07:31:39 PM »
I’m curious what Trump’s trade war is going to do. The auto industry is particularly affected — it needs a lot of steel and aluminium (much of it imported, Al particularly from Canada), and a lot of cars and car parts are imported from Canada.

The Canadian economy stands to be devastated.

Independent of that minor detail, the US economy is going to get hit with cars suddenly being a bit more expensive. Steel cars more than aluminium cars. Cars depending on deep supply chains more than vertically integrated car makers.

The Trump tariff on “imported cars” would also significantly hurt U.S. carmakers.

Quote
...not only do most of the targeted manufacturers have factories in the US, but American carmakers are among the largest importers of vehicles from Canada and Mexico.

The move would also come at a time when China—the world's largest car market—is moving in the opposite direction, lowering taxes on imported vehicles from 25 to 15 percent.

"The Honda Accord is not a threat to our national security," tweeted Jeb Hensarling, the Republican head of the House Finance Committee.  "However, taxing it with trade tariffs is a threat to the economic security of millions of hardworking American families," he wrote.

The Trade Partnership Worldwide consultancy estimates that additional taxes of 25 percent would create 92,000 industrial jobs in the US but would result in the destruction of 250,000 jobs in the larger economy.

About one million jobs are currently tied to the auto industry, up from 660,000 in 2010, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. ...
https://phys.org/news/2018-06-tariffs-car-imports-double-edged-sword.html.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4311 on: June 12, 2018, 08:23:32 PM »
Surprise: traffic signals favour cars over pedestrians.

"The consequences of making it easier to drive and harder to walk are consistent with the rise of vehicle-dominated cities"

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-traffic-favour-cars-discourage.html

sidd

We need better control systems.

I’ve seen a video animation of city traffic (it might be from one of Tony Seba’s presentations) where, once vehicles can all communicate with each other, no traffic lights are needed because cars move forward, turn, slow, or wait as needed, on their own.  The cars know each other’s intentions and calculate how to proceed safely.

How to integrate pedestrians?  Probably would be safest for them to step onto a moving car-like platform to cross the road, so it could communicate with the cars, too, and eliminate (most) human unpredictability — as well as cutting down the time needed to cross the street.  Perhaps one or two of them circle the intersection, pausing at each corner for pedestrians to get off or on.

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4312 on: June 12, 2018, 08:53:11 PM »
Surprise: traffic signals favour cars over pedestrians.

"The consequences of making it easier to drive and harder to walk are consistent with the rise of vehicle-dominated cities"

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-traffic-favour-cars-discourage.html

sidd

How to integrate pedestrians?  Probably would be safest for them to step onto a moving car-like platform to cross the road, so it could communicate with the cars, too, and eliminate (most) human unpredictability — as well as cutting down the time needed to cross the street.  Perhaps one or two of them circle the intersection, pausing at each corner for pedestrians to get off or on.

I do not want to be integrated. I know I as a pedestrian am just a bloody nuisance but I am content with that.
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wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4313 on: June 12, 2018, 08:56:34 PM »
It is much more likely that human pedestrians will have chips implanted in their brains to automatically keep them from stepping in front of these cars.

What a wonderful savings of life and injury this will represent!

A wonderful world awaits us. We only have to allow ourselves to be 'adjusted' enough to fit well into it!  :)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4314 on: June 12, 2018, 09:02:57 PM »
Surprise: traffic signals favour cars over pedestrians.

"The consequences of making it easier to drive and harder to walk are consistent with the rise of vehicle-dominated cities"

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-traffic-favour-cars-discourage.html

sidd

How to integrate pedestrians?  Probably would be safest for them to step onto a moving car-like platform to cross the road, so it could communicate with the cars, too, and eliminate (most) human unpredictability — as well as cutting down the time needed to cross the street.  Perhaps one or two of them circle the intersection, pausing at each corner for pedestrians to get off or on.

I do not want to be integrated. I know I as a pedestrian am just a bloody nuisance but I am content with that.

 ;D

For you, we have the ring-road model, where vehicles enter the city only on a few streets with limited destinations.  No parking, no “through traffic”!

You can still fight it out with the bicyclists and e-scooter folks, though. ;)
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4315 on: June 12, 2018, 09:54:24 PM »
...
I do not want to be integrated. I know I as a pedestrian am just a bloody nuisance but I am content with that.

I don't remember the SiFi book, but the body was run over and the car's automatic washer washed the blood and guts off.  It was just chance a person in the car saw the deceased get hit, as most folks fully darken the car windows for privacy.

Just for the record: I'll miss you, gerontocrat!
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Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4316 on: June 13, 2018, 07:15:56 AM »
It is much more likely that human pedestrians will have chips implanted in their brains to automatically keep them from stepping in front of these cars.

What a wonderful savings of life and injury this will represent!

A wonderful world awaits us. We only have to allow ourselves to be 'adjusted' enough to fit well into it!  :)
There's always Tor's option above, before the assimilation process...

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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4317 on: June 13, 2018, 06:54:31 PM »
Surprise: traffic signals favour cars over pedestrians.

"The consequences of making it easier to drive and harder to walk are consistent with the rise of vehicle-dominated cities"

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-traffic-favour-cars-discourage.html

sidd

We need better control systems.

I’ve seen a video animation of city traffic (it might be from one of Tony Seba’s presentations) where, once vehicles can all communicate with each other, no traffic lights are needed because cars move forward, turn, slow, or wait as needed, on their own.  The cars know each other’s intentions and calculate how to proceed safely.

How to integrate pedestrians?  Probably would be safest for them to step onto a moving car-like platform to cross the road, so it could communicate with the cars, too, and eliminate (most) human unpredictability — as well as cutting down the time needed to cross the street.  Perhaps one or two of them circle the intersection, pausing at each corner for pedestrians to get off or on.

I love you but you are nuts!!!

gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4318 on: June 13, 2018, 07:10:21 PM »
Surprise: traffic signals favour cars over pedestrians.

"The consequences of making it easier to drive and harder to walk are consistent with the rise of vehicle-dominated cities"

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-traffic-favour-cars-discourage.html

sidd

How to integrate pedestrians?  Probably would be safest for them to step onto a moving car-like platform to cross the road, so it could communicate with the cars, too, and eliminate (most) human unpredictability — as well as cutting down the time needed to cross the street.  Perhaps one or two of them circle the intersection, pausing at each corner for pedestrians to get off or on.

I do not want to be integrated. I know I as a pedestrian am just a bloody nuisance but I am content with that.

 ;D

For you, we have the ring-road model, where vehicles enter the city only on a few streets with limited destinations.  No parking, no “through traffic”!

You can still fight it out with the bicyclists and e-scooter folks, though. ;)

My personal solution is (in about 3 weeks) - Get out of Dodge.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4319 on: June 13, 2018, 07:18:15 PM »
And this single graph should only serve to dampen our enthusiasm regarding the transition to EV's. The graph suggests that we should expect 1/2 million of these EV's to be sold annually in the near term. In 2017, 1.1 million BEV's and PHEV's of all model types were sold globally.

 https://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-rapid-growth-in-global-electric-vehicle-sales-in-4-charts-2018-1

In the past 4 years, 310 million vehicles were purchased worldwide. 308 million of these use fossil fuel exclusively.  These cars will be on the road for perhaps a decade, longer in poorer countries. In 2018, 80 million cars will be purchased and at least 78 million of them will be using fossil fuels for just as long.

 https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990/

In 2015, it was estimated that there were 1.25 billion vehicles in operation on the planet.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281134/number-of-vehicles-in-use-worldwide/

While EV sales will continue to grow exponentially, it will take some time for gas powered vehicles to disappear, only to be found at car shows and in museums.


Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4320 on: June 13, 2018, 07:34:59 PM »
Quote
While EV sales will continue to grow exponentially, it will take some time for gas powered vehicles to be taken off the road.

It will.  But we seem to be at a tipping point where EVs become cheaper to manufacture than ICEVs.  And EVs are already cheaper to operate.  That creates an economic turning point.  As people get some basic experience with EVs it will become very hard to sell ICEVs rather than a less expensive to own and operate EV.

The average lifespan for an ICEV in the US is about 12 years.  That suggests fleet turnover in around 20 years.  Most likely it will happen quicker once EVs are commonly available. People won't bother with the serious repairs needed to keep a used ICEV on the road when the cost of repairs and fuel savings will pay for a more reliable used EV.

We're seeing lower cost, limited range (~100 miles) EVs being introduced in countries that don't have US/EU level safety standards.  Those cars are likely to be very popular in less developed countries where fuel and repair parts can often be expensive.  If so, that kills the "third life" for ICEVs that are sold new, then used, and then exported from more developed countries.  The bottom collapses out from under ICEV retained value.

Shared Humanity

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« Reply #4321 on: June 13, 2018, 07:50:22 PM »
So, let's play a math game.

1.) There are 1.2 billion vehicles on the road worldwide. (Likely more now since this estimate was made in 2015 but we'll say 1.2 billion.)

2.) Annual car sales are 80 million per year so the 1.2 billion cars represent 15 years of car sales and thus all cars are typically replaced within 15 years. (Actually longer than this since car sales only recently hit 80 million annually but we will say that all cars are replaced within 15 years.)

3.) EV sales in 2017 were 1.1 million. Lets say 1 million and have the manufacture and sales of EV's continue to grow exponentially, doubling every year from this point forward. In 2018, sales will be 2 million. In 2019, 4 million. In 2020, 8 million. In 2021, 16 million. In 2022, 32 million. In 2023, 64 million. and finally, in 2024, EV sales capture the entire new vehicle market worldwide. (Don't ask me how we actually build 64 million EV's six years from now but, remember, this is only a game. We're counting on you, Elon.)

From 2024 on, we are finally replacing all gas powered vehicles taken off the road with EV's and in 2039, fifteen years later, the last gas powered vehicle goes to the junkyard.

All gas powered vehicles off the road in 2 decades would be fantastic but this would only happen if my quite fanciful assumptions were to become reality.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2018, 08:04:35 PM by Shared Humanity »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4322 on: June 13, 2018, 07:56:02 PM »
...
We need better control systems.

I’ve seen a video animation of city traffic (it might be from one of Tony Seba’s presentations) where, once vehicles can all communicate with each other, no traffic lights are needed because cars move forward, turn, slow, or wait as needed, on their own.  The cars know each other’s intentions and calculate how to proceed safely.

How to integrate pedestrians?  Probably would be safest for them to step onto a moving car-like platform to cross the road, so it could communicate with the cars, too, and eliminate (most) human unpredictability — as well as cutting down the time needed to cross the street.  Perhaps one or two of them circle the intersection, pausing at each corner for pedestrians to get off or on.

I love you but you are nuts!!!

 ;D  Sometimes, that’s exactly what’s needed!

But seriously, I think we’ve about reached “peak street traffic” in cities.  Between moving traffic underground (tunnels) to “personalized mass transit” to ring-roads and pedestrian boulevards, city streets should become more civilized over time.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4323 on: June 13, 2018, 08:01:03 PM »

But seriously, I think we’ve about reached “peak street traffic” in cities.  Between moving traffic underground (tunnels) to “personalized mass transit” to ring-roads and pedestrian boulevards, city streets should become more civilized over time.

This is happening in Chicago. When major streets and bridges are being rebuilt, vehicle lanes are routinely removed, replaced by bike lanes.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4324 on: June 13, 2018, 08:06:16 PM »
So, let's play a math game.

1.) There are 1.2 billion vehicles on the road worldwide. (Likely more now since this estimate was made in 2015 but we'll say 1.2 billion.)

2.) Annual car sales are 80 million per year so the 1.2 billion cars represent 15 years of car sales and thus all cars are typically replaced within 15 years. (Actually longer than this since car sales only recently hit 80 million annually but we will say that all cars are replaced within 15 years.)

3.) EV sales in 2017 were 1.1 million. Lets say 1 million and have the manufacture and sales of EV's continue to grow exponentially, doubling every year from this point forward. In 2018, sales will be 2 million. In 2019, 4 million. In 2020, 8 million. In 2021, 16 million. In 2022, 32 million. In 2023, 64 million. and finally, in 2024, EV sales capture the entire new vehicle market worldwide. (Don't ask me how we actually build 64 million EV's six years from now but, remember, this is only a game.)

From 2024 on, we are finally replacing all gas powered vehicles taken off the road with EV's and in 2039, fifteen years later, the last gas powered vehicle goes to the junkyard.

The biggest missing factor here may be:  what does autonomous driving do to the global vehicle fleet?  Does it sharply reduce the need for personal vehicles?  Does it sharply increase the number of “fleet vehicles” providing transport services? 

If hyperloops become common in populated regions, how much will road transportation be reduced?


It’s hard to say what total vehicle sales will look like in ten years, but I have a feeling EVs won’t be replacing ICE cars one-for-one.

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Shared Humanity

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« Reply #4325 on: June 13, 2018, 08:12:10 PM »
So why even play this numbers game? It allows you to grapple with the magnitude of any problem.

What this game tells me is focusing only on replacing our existing car market with EV's does not get us where we need to be. Transforming the car manufacturing industry from gas to EV's while satisfying all of the current vehicle demand represents a BAU (green growth) approach. For us to succeed, we need to also find ways to drastically reduce the number of vehicles in operation. This will require that we rethink many of the things we take for granted when it comes to personal mobility.

Shared Humanity

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« Reply #4326 on: June 13, 2018, 08:16:20 PM »

The biggest missing factor here may be:  what does autonomous driving do to the global vehicle fleet?  Does it sharply reduce the need for personal vehicles?  Does it sharply increase the number of “fleet vehicles” providing transport services? 

If hyperloops become common in populated regions, how much will road transportation be reduced?


It’s hard to say what total vehicle sales will look like in ten years, but I have a feeling EVs won’t be replacing ICE cars one-for-one.

I agree. We need to imagine a future where meeting the mobility needs for individuals can be done with far fewer vehicles on the road. Not as easy as it sounds as our built infrastructure assumes the kind of mobility that autos afforded us in the 20th century. And in the U.S., there is an entire mystique around your car, the ability to just get up and go.

This graph for car production, highlights the challenge.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2018, 08:22:26 PM by Shared Humanity »

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4327 on: June 13, 2018, 08:32:23 PM »
I say the environment needs another 2008. The politicians and central bankers are fighting tooth and nail to prop up the economy on mountains of debt. Off-topic here I know, but that chart by SH above is what the environment needs.
But I think what the numbers game tells us is that the Green BAU transition will not be fast enough to save us from a lot of climate change. Still, as discussed ad nauseum elsewhere on the forum, it's the only tool that works in practice for the current population and politics. Hopefully some magic cultural transformation will save us - but I am guessing not.
Hyperloop or plain Loop won't save us either, as its roll-out in the next ten years will be slow to seriously affect the numbers game. Digging tunnels takes time even with the Boring technology, with permits and bureaucracy and whatever.
And remember, the global population is growing.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4328 on: June 13, 2018, 08:39:02 PM »
”And in the U.S., there is an entire mystique around your car, the ability to just get up and go.”

Yes.  But think of the way Uber and Lyft transport took off.  A personal vehicle is typically only used about 5-10% of the day, so one vehicle could serve many people. If you could summon a car on your smartphone (and in fact summon a different type of car/van/pickup truck) as you needed one, the attraction of paying for insurance, maintenance, parking, etc. for a personal car is bound to diminish.
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4329 on: June 13, 2018, 08:46:52 PM »
I say the environment needs another 2008. The politicians and central bankers are fighting tooth and nail to prop up the economy on mountains of debt. Off-topic here I know, but that chart by SH above is what the environment needs.
...

The change will likely not happen due to someone in power saying, “You need to own fewer cars.”  More likely, it will be the result of externalities like the desire to reduce air pollution, and the availability of cheaper alternatives to cars.
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Shared Humanity

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« Reply #4330 on: June 13, 2018, 08:47:59 PM »
”And in the U.S., there is an entire mystique around your car, the ability to just get up and go.”

Yes.  But think of the way Uber and Lyft transport took off.  A personal vehicle is typically only used about 5-10% of the day, so one vehicle could serve many people. If you could summon a car on your smartphone (and in fact summon a different type of car/van/pickup truck) as you needed one, the attraction of paying for insurance, maintenance, parking, etc. for a personal car is bound to diminish.

No question this is happening in the U.S.. Young adults are far less likely to own a car.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #4331 on: June 13, 2018, 09:19:29 PM »
If we can manufacture X number ICEVs a year then we can manufacture X number EVs per year.  Allow about five years for new battery and electric motor plants to come online.

I doubt we'll see some sort of 2x by year sort of transition.  Let's assume EVs reach manufacturing cost parity before 2020 (Tesla says 2018 for them).  And EVs become cheaper to manufacture than ICEVs by 2025 (Tesla says 2020 for them).  Then sometime before 2030 it should be cheaper to purchase an EV than an similar-feature ICEV.  My guess is that point is closer to 2025 than 2030.

At that point we should see a rapid flip.  Just like we saw with non-CRT monitors and TVs, digital cameras, and other technology flips.  The old, less good and more expensive dies out quickly.

Then there's robotaxis which stand to greatly change the number of vehicles on the road.

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« Reply #4332 on: June 13, 2018, 09:24:40 PM »
Loop and Hyperloop...

Standard tunnel boring speed 60 feet per day (average).  Musk says that Boring can operate at 14x standard.

NYC to Washington DC 200 miles - straight line.

200 miles = 1,056,000 feet.

60 feet per day = 17,600 days.

600 feet per day (10x improvement, a bit more conservative than Musk’s 14x) = 1,760 days

Ten boring machines = 176 days. 

Open six entry holes.  Insert one machine at each end and two in all other openings (one headed north and one south).  Half a year and the tunnel is dug.

Ten boring machines = 176 days.  Six months.

3,000 miles coast to coast.  200 10x-tunneling machines could complete a coast to coast tunnel in half a year. 

If the Loop and Hyperloop work then there are likely be jobs for hundreds, if not thousands of small tunnel boring machines.  The heavy traffic routes could be built out quickly by simply putting more machines on the job.

Finish the most important runs and then gang up on the lower priority routes.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4333 on: June 13, 2018, 09:57:10 PM »
I don’t agree with everything this article says (EV manufacturing costs will soon be less than ICEVs, even with sensors/computers), but it’s an interesting guess about the future.

Driverless Tech Will Impact These 5 Industries
Quote
Just as the cloud has led to the transition of computing as a scalable service rather than a concrete product like hardware, analysts see a similar evolution with self-driving cars. As autonomous vehicle technology advances, commuters and others (especially in cities) are expected to no longer need their own cars and can rely on a fleet of driverless vehicles to ferry them to and from work, home, or wherever they need to go. Since the biggest cost today of ridesharing services like Uber is the driver, eliminating that will make such rides vastly cheaper, therefore making the comparative expense of owning a car untenable for many.

Among the industries that will be most clearly impacted are auto manufacturers and ridesharing services, but also insurance companies will bear a burden since car crashes are expected to decline. Gas stations, airlines, and hotels are all connected to the transportation industry and will be changed as well. Manufacturing costs for cars will increase due to the quantity and cost of the technology necessary in AVs, meaning that potentially car ownership will decline. ...
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/driverless-tech-will-impact-these-5-industries-cm976514
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« Reply #4334 on: June 13, 2018, 10:16:45 PM »
Loop and Hyperloop...

Standard tunnel boring speed 60 feet per day (average).  Musk says that Boring can operate at 14x standard.


Like these boring machines will not be boring through a uniform layer of sand and gravel on a flat surface.

Geology?
Rock Types
Igneous Rocks. Basalt. Gabbro. Granite. Obsidian. Volcanic Ash and Tuff.
Sedimentary Rocks. Clays, Mudstones and Shales. Limestones. Sandstone.
Metamorphic Rocks. Gneiss. Marble. Quartzite. Schist. Slate.

Faults, fractures, folding.

Geography:-
Hills, valleys, mountains.
Underground water tables,
Underground rivers.

I can't believe the arithmetic used to calculate time scales in your posts, or the use of distance as a straight line twixt origin and destination.
« Last Edit: June 13, 2018, 10:23:59 PM by gerontocrat »
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4335 on: June 13, 2018, 10:53:05 PM »
Quote
I don’t agree with everything this article says (EV manufacturing costs will soon be less than ICEVs, even with sensors/computers)

Independent analyses have set manufacturing cost parity at battery pack prices higher than $200/kWh.  Tesla expects to hit parity this year.  They didn't declare parity at $190/kWh so the original >$200 may have been off a bit.

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« Reply #4336 on: June 13, 2018, 11:05:23 PM »
Quote
Like these boring machines will not be boring through a uniform layer of sand and gravel on a flat surface.

Elon stated that average boring speeds are  60 feet per day.  That would mean an average speed in all rock/dirt/sand conditions.  If you think that wrong you could look up a more reliable number.

Quote
I can't believe the arithmetic used to calculate time scales in your posts,

If you can't believe my arithmetic then point out my mistake(s).

200 miles = 1,056,000 feet. 
200 x 5,280 = ?

60 feet per day = 17,600 days. 
1,056,000 / 60 = ?

600 feet per day (10x improvement, a bit more conservative than Musk’s 14x) = 1,760 days. 
17,600 / 10 = ?

Ten boring machines = 176 days. 
1,760 / 10 = ?


Quote
or the use of distance as a straight line twixt origin and destination.

The routes won't be straight.  Most likely they will follow major highways as that is the easiest way to gaining access as opposed to getting an agreement with individual land owners.  IIRC the LA subway is largely under existing highways.

If Elon's '60 feet per day' and my math are approximately correct then it appears that a Loop or Hyperloop tunnel could be bored fairly rapidly by dedicating more tunneling machines to the job.

And since these are smaller machines which can be loaded onto a truck and hauled to a new site they are usable on multiple projects unlike the very large 'one tunnel only' machines which typically bury themselves at the end of the dig.




Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4337 on: June 14, 2018, 01:40:46 AM »
Loop and Hyperloop...

Standard tunnel boring speed 60 feet per day (average).  Musk says that Boring can operate at 14x standard.


Like these boring machines will not be boring through a uniform layer of sand and gravel on a flat surface.

Geology?
Rock Types
Igneous Rocks. Basalt. Gabbro. Granite. Obsidian. Volcanic Ash and Tuff.
Sedimentary Rocks. Clays, Mudstones and Shales. Limestones. Sandstone.
Metamorphic Rocks. Gneiss. Marble. Quartzite. Schist. Slate.

Faults, fractures, folding.

Geography:-
Hills, valleys, mountains.
Underground water tables,
Underground rivers.

I can't believe the arithmetic used to calculate time scales in your posts, or the use of distance as a straight line twixt origin and destination.

This pdf on tunnel boring machines (TBM) may be of interest.  Different machine heads/types are used to work on different materials.  Pressure can be maintained in front of the drill head as necessary to deal with water or slurry.  Note: The Boring Company has significantly re-engineered the traditional TBM; I am not aware of the exact design of the new machine, but major improvements should be expected.

https://www.imia.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/TBM-WG60-f-021209.pdf


Edit: cross-posted to the Boring thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2000.msg158736.html#msg158736
« Last Edit: June 14, 2018, 02:23:08 PM by Sigmetnow »
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numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4338 on: June 14, 2018, 03:28:43 AM »
Shared Humanity: I suspect the lifetime of gasoline-powered cars will shrink quite substantially when the replacement really hits. In your thought experiment, all new cars in 2026 are EVs. At that point, and in fact long before, gas stations start to close; mechanics start to lose the experience of working on oil pumps and head gaskets and timing belts and so on so repairs get more expensive or harder to get; parts manufacturers go bust or stop producing replacement parts, etc.

zizek

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4339 on: June 14, 2018, 04:41:11 AM »
Americans drove 3.22 trillion miles last year.  Lets say a tesla uses about 300wh/mi.
That's a total of 966tWh

2016 American electricity consumption totaled 3762 tWh. 

So the united states would require a 25% increase in electricity output to satisfy the needs of electric automobiles. (sorta)





https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/02/21/516512439/record-number-of-miles-driven-in-u-s-last-year
Cars

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_01_01.html
Electricity

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4340 on: June 14, 2018, 01:39:36 PM »
The city of Chicago, Illinois, U.S., has selected Elon Musk’s The Boring Company to build a tunnel with high-speed ‘Loop system from downtown to one of the world’s busiest airports.

See the Boring thread: 
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2000.msg158735.html#msg158735
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4341 on: June 14, 2018, 03:08:07 PM »
Americans drove 3.22 trillion miles last year.  Lets say a tesla uses about 300wh/mi.
That's a total of 966tWh

2016 American electricity consumption totaled 3762 tWh. 

So the united states would require a 25% increase in electricity output to satisfy the needs of electric automobiles. (sorta)

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/02/21/516512439/record-number-of-miles-driven-in-u-s-last-year
Cars

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_01_01.html
Electricity

Now factor in that about 1/3 of EV owners have solar panels on their roof — and that the EIA does not measure this behind-the-meter generation.

Also the amount of electricity that will no longer be needed to produce and distribute fuels for the ICE vehicles that EVs replace.
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ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4342 on: June 14, 2018, 03:34:23 PM »
What a surprise that zizek brings up a tired old myth about the burden of electric cars on the grid. Convenient to ignore how much electricity is used to refine fossil fuels when "worrying" about EVs driving up overall demand for electricity.

Here's a quick accounting of refinery demand that will disappear if gas isn't needed for cars:

Fully Charged Show
https://youtu.be/BQpX-9OyEr4?t=1m

Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4343 on: June 14, 2018, 03:43:27 PM »
This Artist Imagines What A Future Electric Porsche 911 Could Look Like


https://jalopnik.com/this-artist-imagines-what-a-future-electric-porsche-911-1826806083

Car designers have really been "freed up" since you don't need "the tunnel" for a transmission.  Whether they are designing for the new VW Bus ..... or a Porsche 911 ..... they are able to create a car with more room, and less obtrusive things to design around.

Over the last 6 months, you can SEE and FEEL the significant push into electric transportation, whether it is in cars, motorcycles, scooters, buses, large semi trucks, etc.  It is REALLY gaining momentum ...... and this is going to effect the PSYCHOLOGY of "near term buyers" in the coming couple of years ..... when all of the sudden people are looking at the possibility of shelling a lot of shekels/pounds/dollars/euros for a large purchase.  They won't want to be buying a dinosaur (at least, not enough of them).

If you can steal away for 27 minutes some night when the kids are in bed and your wife is asleep ..... here's a good video that discusses the VW's that are coming, and they talk to the designers of the VE electric cars that are coming in the next couple of years.  Yes.... I LOVE THE MICROBUS.  Looks like it would be great for kids.... camping .... fishing .... business (remove the back seats to transport stuff) ..... etc.



 
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numerobis

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« Reply #4344 on: June 14, 2018, 04:02:29 PM »
Sigmetnow: EIA doesn’t measure, but it does estimate distributed solar PV. There’s a line for that in their monthly electricity statistics, and it’s inckuded in the total solar.

numerobis

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« Reply #4345 on: June 14, 2018, 04:08:53 PM »
That said, residential solar is poorly set up to charge EVs. You’re at home mostly at night. Housing solar would thus need to transmit to elsewhere — roughly on par with how much it sucks in at peak demand, so it’s getting better utilization of the existing cables, but it doesn’t reduce the peak.

Commercial rooftop solar is perfect for the task though: charge the workers’ cars all day, no transmission needed.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4346 on: June 14, 2018, 04:24:10 PM »
That said, residential solar is poorly set up to charge EVs. You’re at home mostly at night. Housing solar would thus need to transmit to elsewhere — roughly on par with how much it sucks in at peak demand, so it’s getting better utilization of the existing cables, but it doesn’t reduce the peak.

Commercial rooftop solar is perfect for the task though: charge the workers’ cars all day, no transmission needed.

Solar panels or solar roof, plus batteries. You can order them both at the same time, and place (or website), you order your Tesla.  ;)
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4347 on: June 14, 2018, 04:32:15 PM »
What a surprise that zizek brings up a tired old myth about the burden of electric cars on the grid. Convenient to ignore how much electricity is used to refine fossil fuels when "worrying" about EVs driving up overall demand for electricity.

Here's a quick accounting of refinery demand that will disappear if gas isn't needed for cars:

Fully Charged Show
https://youtu.be/BQpX-9OyEr4?t=1m

Thanks for the link!
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #4348 on: June 14, 2018, 04:38:24 PM »
EVs are likely to be huge supporters of both wind and solar grid integration.

EVs need to charge, on average, three hours per day from a 220 vac outlet.  Cars  spend over 90% of the the time parked.  If a significant number of cars are plugged in throughout the 24 hour day then they would be able to charge using "surplus" wind/solar generation. 

Having a large dispatchable load means that wind and solar penetration can grow to very high percentage levels without using storage or curtailing.

Some amount of electricity will be freed up as we pump, refine, and distribute less fuel for ICEVs. 

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4349 on: June 14, 2018, 04:40:35 PM »
Sigmetnow: EIA doesn’t measure, but it does estimate distributed solar PV. There’s a line for that in their monthly electricity statistics, and it’s inckuded in the total solar.

OK, thanks.  I may have been thinking of California’s data.
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