Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....  (Read 1472190 times)

silkman

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 374
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 58
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4350 on: June 17, 2018, 09:47:48 AM »


Is anyone else concerned about the confusion and inefficiency of having multiple systems and standards for EV charging. Operationally, at least in the UK, it's a bit of a nightmare with three incompatible rapid charging systems (the only ones of any real use on longer trips) required to meet the needs of a growing market. My i3 is CCS. I can't use CHAdeMO or Tesla. It's both frustrating and massively more capital intensive to put together an effective charging network. Just how this might get resolved I don't know but a few months ago I sat waiting to use a sole CCS charger at a service station whilst enjoying a view of a bank of 12 Tesla chargers.... With not a Tesla in sight.

Any insights or answers?

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4351 on: June 17, 2018, 10:23:31 AM »
It's generally best to not create rigid standards too early.  Let people try out different ideas and get a better idea of what is really needed.

Maybe we'll see rapid changing stations with two or even three different cables for a period in the future.  And then sometime later we'll settle in on one plug for all.

Apparently Tesla has been talking with other companies about coming up with a standard so the future might be here in the next five to ten years.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4352 on: June 17, 2018, 12:27:57 PM »
Is anyone else concerned about the confusion and inefficiency of having multiple systems and standards for EV charging.

Yes! See my previous posts.

I don't think there are any easy answers though.

AC V2G would be nice in many ways, with the so called "bi-directional inverter" in the car rather than the charging station. However (currently at least) it makes things more expensive for EV OEMs so it ain't gonna happen in a hurry.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4353 on: June 17, 2018, 02:13:31 PM »
FYI one of my assorted alter egos just "Tweeted" @elonmusk:

https://twitter.com/V2G_EVSE/status/1008321183559938049

Do you get the joke @numerobis? Will Elon?!
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4354 on: June 17, 2018, 02:51:13 PM »


Is anyone else concerned about the confusion and inefficiency of having multiple systems and standards for EV charging. Operationally, at least in the UK, it's a bit of a nightmare with three incompatible rapid charging systems (the only ones of any real use on longer trips) required to meet the needs of a growing market. My i3 is CCS. I can't use CHAdeMO or Tesla. It's both frustrating and massively more capital intensive to put together an effective charging network. Just how this might get resolved I don't know but a few months ago I sat waiting to use a sole CCS charger at a service station whilst enjoying a view of a bank of 12 Tesla chargers.... With not a Tesla in sight.

Any insights or answers?

Yes, it’s pretty much a mess at the moment, although standards groups are working on it.  Tesla has offered to share its superchargers with any group that will pay for their use — but the vehicle must be able to accept Tesla’s level of charging, so slow-charging cars don’t tie up the station. Which I know sounds ironic to you now. (Edit: And of course, to prevent the supercharger from frying the battery!)

The obvious answer for the immediate future is a charger that can serve various standards.  One company built what they billed as a “universal charger” — but the Tesla connection was a rewired CHAdeMo adapter that Tesla described as unwise and potentially dangerous. :-\

Edit: It’s not just the arrangement of pins that differentiates the standards.  It’s also how the car and the station talk to each other; which one commands the process; and which one locks the plug to the car’s port.

For those who are wondering, here are a couple links comparing the standards:

This is from 2014, but has a nice graphic:
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1096058_all-the-electric-car-charging-connectors-in-one-great-big-poster

And here’s a website:  https://chargehub.com/en/electric-car-charging-guide.html


Image below:  Shell petrol stations install multi-standard chargers.

https://electrek.co/2017/09/27/shell-new-electric-car-charging-gas-stations/
« Last Edit: June 17, 2018, 03:26:34 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4355 on: June 17, 2018, 03:43:05 PM »
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4356 on: June 17, 2018, 04:08:35 PM »
You can take our picnic tables. But you can never take our freedom. ;D

Australian Police Are Actively Trying to Arrest Motorized Picnic Table Riders
https://motherboard.vice.com/amp/en_us/article/aekzv4/australian-police-are-actively-trying-to-arrest-motorized-picnic-table-riders

Mobile picnic tables is just the thing for the western United States. It helps you stay ahead of the forest fires.

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4357 on: June 17, 2018, 04:11:49 PM »
High-performance military planes have ejection seats. 

Lets equip all autonomous cars with these. Fatalities would drop dramatically.

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 602
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4358 on: June 17, 2018, 05:53:43 PM »
IMHO, this is the kind of thing we should mainly be focused on rather than obsessions with various kinds of techno fixes (and I speak as a former EV owner):

http://www.businessinsider.fr/us/cities-going-car-free-ban-2017-8

13 cities that are starting to ban cars

What are towns, cities, counties...doing in your region to encourage biking and pedestrians and to discourage driving?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4359 on: June 17, 2018, 06:08:55 PM »
What are towns, cities, counties...doing in your region to encourage biking and pedestrians and to discourage driving?

At the risk of drifting off topic, Exeter UK:

https://www.co-bikes.co.uk/

Perhaps more on topic, the Renault ZOEs at:

https://www.co-cars.co.uk/
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4360 on: June 17, 2018, 11:05:54 PM »
Just after quarter-end, then. Suggesting great Q2 numbers on tap.

Elon Musk, today: “They have about three weeks before their short position explodes”
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1008450201885872129

He tweeted a link to this article with the comment, “Well said”:
The War on Tesla, Musk, and the Fight for the Future
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2018/5/29/1767826/-The-War-on-Tesla-Musk-and-the-Fight-for-the-Future
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

sesyf

  • New ice
  • Posts: 61
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 85
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4361 on: June 18, 2018, 01:35:45 PM »
For some reason this remindee me about some old westerns where you had to leave your guns at town border......

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4362 on: June 18, 2018, 01:39:05 PM »
He tweeted a link to this article with the comment, “Well said”

Elon has neglected to respond to my V2G dig thus far though!

Rei is a star. See:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2014/8/19/1322994/-B-r-arbunga-rumble-rumble-rumble-volcano-watch

et seq.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4363 on: June 18, 2018, 03:24:02 PM »
Simplifying the charging chaos
People buying their first EV have two questions:  What kind of plug does it use, and how long does it take to charge?

”Teske has a sense that with Chargeway, he can help ease several thorny problems that have held up electric-car sales.

Primary among those are dealer salespeople ignorant of how charging works, and mass-market car buyers who don't want or need to learn about volts, kilowatts, CHAdeMO, and all the rest.”


The solution? A color-coded chart that gives all the information a casual user needs. “Replacing the words and specs with a simple system of colors and numbers, Chargeway's low numbers indicate slower charging, while the higher numbers show faster rates.”

Why Chargeway matters: making EV charging comprehensible for buyers, dealers, utilities, networks
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1117264_why-chargeway-matters-making-ev-charging-comprehensible-for-buyers-dealers-utilities-networks
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4364 on: June 19, 2018, 12:53:48 AM »
CHAdeMO is pushing for faster electric vehicle charging with new 400 kW protocol

Folks may find this thread over on LinkedIn enlightening?

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6414388372986486784
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4365 on: June 19, 2018, 12:21:11 PM »
I'm attempting to bring our apparently insurmountable philosophical differences to Elon's attention once again:

https://twitter.com/V2G_EVSE/status/1009016006684151808
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4366 on: June 19, 2018, 01:20:33 PM »
Jim, I think Musk has more important things on his mind at the moment.

“#Tesla registered 2,067 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 53800.”
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1008981861987594242

Tesla production line was ‘sabotaged’, Elon Musk tells employees to be ‘on alert’
https://electrek.co/2018/06/18/tesla-sabotaged-elon-musk-employees-alert/

Edit:
Elon Musk: “Needed another general assembly line to reach 5k/week Model 3 production. A new building was impossible, so we built a giant tent in 2 weeks. Tesla team kfa!! Gah, love them so much ...”
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1008906087611883521

Tesla’s new Model 3 assembly line inside a ‘tent’ is ‘way better’ and cheaper than other line, says Elon Musk
https://electrek.co/2018/06/19/tesla-model-3-assembly-line-inside-tent-elon-musk/
« Last Edit: June 19, 2018, 01:42:19 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20384
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4367 on: June 19, 2018, 01:33:00 PM »
Cross posted from the "China, but China" thread

Quote
Hullo BenB,

An entry in the cars,more cars.... thread is a good idea. China is really ahead of the game. Even when Tesla gets to 5 6 7 8 9 10 thousand cars a week, it is likely China will have got way ahead.

Quote
BenB on Today at 12:54:28 PM
I don't know whether this belongs here or in the cars thread, but 97,000 EVs were sold in China in May, including 12,624 of the market-leading BAIC EC-Series:

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/06/china-may-2018.html

Several of the cars have recently upgraded batteries, including the BAIC Ex-series crossover with a 48kWh battery and the BYD e5 with a 61 kWh battery.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4368 on: June 19, 2018, 01:45:41 PM »
Cross posted from the "China, but China" thread

Quote
Hullo BenB,

An entry in the cars,more cars.... thread is a good idea. China is really ahead of the game. Even when Tesla gets to 5 6 7 8 9 10 thousand cars a week, it is likely China will have got way ahead.

Quote
BenB on Today at 12:54:28 PM
I don't know whether this belongs here or in the cars thread, but 97,000 EVs were sold in China in May, including 12,624 of the market-leading BAIC EC-Series:

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2018/06/china-may-2018.html

Several of the cars have recently upgraded batteries, including the BAIC Ex-series crossover with a 48kWh battery and the BYD e5 with a 61 kWh battery.

As Tesla grows from “top” cars down to more affordable ones, it’s perfect that China grows quickly from the bottom, up!
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4369 on: June 19, 2018, 02:01:25 PM »
Jim, I think Musk has more important things on his mind at the moment.

What could possibly be more important than getting the message out about declining Arctic sea ice?

I've taken a different tack:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1009042852137930752
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4370 on: June 19, 2018, 02:47:50 PM »
Jim, I think Musk has more important things on his mind at the moment.

What could possibly be more important than getting the message out about declining Arctic sea ice?
...

“When you're up to your ass in alligators, it's difficult to remember the main objective was to drain the swamp.”

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg159602.html#msg159602
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4371 on: June 19, 2018, 03:57:54 PM »
Do you really think that someone who is running a company whose main goal is to eliminate petroleum and its CO2 is unaware of Arctic melt?

Elon is also manufacturing solar panels and storage to assist solar and wind replacement of fossil fuels.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4372 on: June 19, 2018, 08:39:09 PM »
Do you really think that someone who is running a company whose main goal is to eliminate petroleum and its CO2 is unaware of Arctic melt?

No. However I did wonder if he might possibly be interested in helping to spread the word by lending a Model X with added towbar to a good (IMHO) cause.

Quote
Elon is also manufacturing solar panels and storage to assist solar and wind replacement of fossil fuels.

Strangely enough I'm aware of that.

I guess dry Anglo-Saxon humour loses something in translation as it crosses the pond?
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4373 on: June 19, 2018, 08:43:34 PM »
I didn't observe any wet or dry humor attempts.

Was I suppose to open links and look for it?


Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4374 on: June 19, 2018, 10:45:03 PM »
Was I suppose to open links and look for it?

That might have helped. It's rather difficult to reproduce that wondrous Twitter ambience in an environment where you can't even embed "Tweets".
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4375 on: June 19, 2018, 11:22:41 PM »
Quote
Jim Hunt

 
@jim_hunt
Follow Follow @jim_hunt
More Jim Hunt Retweeted V2G EVSE
Hi @Grimezsz,

It's been suggested to me that @elonmusk has more important things to worry about than getting the message out about #Arctic #SeaIce decline. Do you fancy #surfing in the #Arctic instead?

#ConArtComm #GWCABBWSC #ChargeToTheCircle

Cc: @kasiaturajczyk @BethLilyRaceJim Hunt added,
V2G EVSE
 
@V2G_EVSE
Replying to @BethLilyRace @projectaware and 8 others
Unfortunately we have some insurmountable philosophical differences with @Tesla. And I've never seen @elonmusk #surfing. Have you?

https://twitter.com/V2G_EVSE/status/1008321183559938049 ……
4:58 AM - 19 Jun 2018

Perhaps one needs to consume watercress sandwiches at tea time to get that humor....    :D

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4376 on: June 20, 2018, 04:10:21 AM »
U.S. States continue to demand Cleaner Cars in face of EPAScottPruitt’s roll back of pollution standards: the Governor of Colorado makes CO the 14th state to adopt strong vehicle pollution standards.
https://twitter.com/climatenexus/status/1009140004269019143
Text image of the Executive Order at the link.


Colorado punches back against EPA, will require higher emissions standards like California
https://electrek.co/2018/06/19/colorado-punches-back-against-epa-will-require-higher-standards-like-california/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4377 on: June 20, 2018, 03:54:25 PM »
Perhaps one needs to consume watercress sandwiches at tea time to get that humor....    :D

Thanks for the cut-n-paste job Bob.

In the context of this forum, this counts as "dry Great British humour"

What could possibly be more important than getting the message out about declining Arctic sea ice?

You seem to have missed this somewhat surreal "tweet" from my very good friend Snow White though:

You may find this North #Devon discussion about #Arctic #Surfing amusing and/or illuminating? Nordkapp gets a mention. Strangely @MargotRobbie does not!



#GWCABBWSC #ChargeToTheCircle #SeaIce

Cc: @SimonBatesUK @andrew_cotton @NewslisaHay

For some additional context, this video comes to you from the other side of the wide Pacific Ocean from Fremont:



I heartily recommend clicking at least one or two of the above links!
« Last Edit: June 20, 2018, 04:31:51 PM by Jim Hunt »
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4378 on: June 20, 2018, 09:49:59 PM »
Nations are beginning to legislate exits from gas powered vehicles.

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/13/16293258/ev-revolution

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4379 on: June 20, 2018, 09:51:50 PM »
Related to the topic of how fast EVs will take over (currently under discussion in the Oil and Gas thread
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,861.msg159792.html#msg159792  ):

Musk has said he’ll unveil the Tesla Model Y (“If we call it that”) next March, and that it will be “something super special.”  The two teaser images he’s released only show (sort of) the front end.

He hasn’t said any thing about the “new kind of pickup truck” he wrote about previously.

Wild speculation here, but what if:  the Model Y SUV converts into a pickup truck?  Or, is available as an SUV or a pickup truck?  (Forget falcon-wing doors — what if the whole back of the car opens up?)

The form factor (higher ground clearance, heftier chassis) should certainly allow it.  The price point (probably starting not much higher than the Model 3, which is comparable to many ICE pickup trucks) should allow it.

In any case, if a Tesla pickup is revealed next spring, truck makers will know they have to accelerate their plans for electric pickup trucks.  “Bubba” may learn to like electric speed and torque much faster than we think.


Meanwhile, Musk also revealed plans for a Tesla compact car in five years.  So while China and others flood the market with small EVs that they keep improving, Tesla will be flooding the market with improved EVs that they keep making smaller and cheaper. :)

https://carbuzz.com/news/tesla-wants-to-make-a-compact-volkswagen-golf-rival


In other news, we see hints of new Tesla gigafactories (each making batteries and cars) coming to China, Europe, and North America.

https://electrek.co/2018/06/20/tesla-germany-new-gigafactory/

Image:  the Tesla Model Y SUV.  Maybe.  ;)
« Last Edit: June 20, 2018, 10:01:28 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4380 on: June 20, 2018, 09:59:24 PM »
Nations are beginning to legislate exits from gas powered vehicles.

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/13/16293258/ev-revolution

Great article.  And if Tesla locates its European car+battery factory in or near Germany, that could swing that car-making giant of a country over to EVs much faster than anticipated.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4381 on: June 21, 2018, 02:18:13 PM »
I posted this video of a March 2018 Tony Seba talk on the "oil, oil, oil" thread.  Here it is again, since it applies equally to cars/vehicles AND to oil.



And watch out for those "rear view mirrors" ...... they can be deadly.  ;)

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20384
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4382 on: June 21, 2018, 04:26:24 PM »
OK, so it is is goodbye to vehicles powered by the Internal Combustion Engine, and hullo to vehicles powered by electricity, with a commensurate reduction in urban and interstate highway pollution and CO2 emissions.

Just about all the debate in this thread is concentrated on the timing thereof. Even if driver-less cars and car sharing become the norm - personal transport / personal mobility stays king.

As a pedestrian occasionally dependent on the UK's declining public transport system, why do I find that all a bit depressing?




"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4383 on: June 21, 2018, 07:01:55 PM »
Honey ...... I'm going to head up Pikes Peak to grab some groceries.  I'll be right back..... ;)



Pikes Peak race this Saturday:

19.99 Kilometers up the mountain (12.4 miles)
156 turns
1,140 meters of altitude gain (3,740 feet)
4,300 meters high at the finish line (14,108 feet)


Record for EV's is just under 9 minutes.  The record for ANY CAR is 8:13.  VW is trying to beat the old EV record ..... and if the weather cooperates, there are some who think they could beat the OVERALL RECORD set in 2013.

If the Frenchman is able to set a NEW OVERALL RECORD .... that would be a BIG feather in the cap of EV's.

If you don't get motion sickness ...... and you're not afraid of heights, here is video of the record being set (all 8 + minutes of it) from inside the car in 2013.  Just don't miss a corner....



And yes.... the fans on the side of the road are pretty damn trusting..... :o

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4384 on: June 21, 2018, 07:26:56 PM »
OK, so it is is goodbye to vehicles powered by the Internal Combustion Engine, and hullo to vehicles powered by electricity, with a commensurate reduction in urban and interstate highway pollution and CO2 emissions.

Just about all the debate in this thread is concentrated on the timing thereof. Even if driver-less cars and car sharing become the norm - personal transport / personal mobility stays king.

As a pedestrian occasionally dependent on the UK's declining public transport system, why do I find that all a bit depressing?

Car sharing is all about creating a more flexible form of public transportation. 

Right now your public transportation options are to take the bus, train, subway on their schedule.  Or pay a lot for a taxi with a human driver.

What self-driving vehicles should offer is a more flexible public transportation option that gets you all the way to "door to door" and departs pretty much on your schedule.

The driver is a large expense.  It makes it impractical to run a 2, 4, 8, 12 passenger vehicle from village/neighborhood A to village/neighborhood B at an odd hour. But take out the driver and it should be affordable to travel to those places now poorly serviced by public transportation.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4385 on: June 21, 2018, 08:28:27 PM »
OK, so it is is goodbye to vehicles powered by the Internal Combustion Engine, and hullo to vehicles powered by electricity, with a commensurate reduction in urban and interstate highway pollution and CO2 emissions.

Just about all the debate in this thread is concentrated on the timing thereof. Even if driver-less cars and car sharing become the norm - personal transport / personal mobility stays king.

As a pedestrian occasionally dependent on the UK's declining public transport system, why do I find that all a bit depressing?

As streets are re-designed for calmer traffic and smaller, more maneuverable vehicles, you should expect them to incorporate more pedestrian- and bicycle-friendly features, as well. :)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4386 on: June 21, 2018, 08:40:29 PM »
I assume we'll move from personally owned cars to robotaxis.  The cost savings and convenience of robos will cause that to happen.

With the disappearance of personal vehicles we'll see curbside parking lanes freed up which can make for secure bike lanes.  And safe bike lanes should get bikes and similar vehicles off our sidewalks.

sidd

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6774
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1047
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4387 on: June 22, 2018, 12:08:16 AM »
The dog caught the car. Now what ? Automakers get what they want, and find they don't wan't it.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/how-the-carmakers-trumped-themselves/562400/?single_page=true

sidd

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4388 on: June 22, 2018, 10:19:23 PM »
The dog caught the car. Now what ? Automakers get what they want, and find they don't wan't it.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/how-the-carmakers-trumped-themselves/562400/?single_page=true

sidd

A good retelling of the history of U.S. standards! 

But as much as U.S. carmakers would like to loosen, or work around, U.S. standards, the fact is that other countries have tightened their requirements, much more.  In a few years, they won’t be able to sell cars made to U.S. standards anywhere else. 
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4389 on: June 23, 2018, 03:34:38 AM »
Volkswagen to expand ‘mega-factory’ in China to build more electric vehicles
Quote
Regulations in China are pushing many foreign automakers to make significant investments in electric vehicle production in the country.  The Volkswagen group is among them through several different joint-venture efforts.

Last year, they also announced plans to build 100,000 all-electric vehicles per year in China through a new joint-venture with JAC.  Now, they are going to add electric production capacity with their FAW joint-venture at the Foshan ‘mega-factory’.
...

The group has secured electric vehicle battery contracts valued at up to $48 billion in order to support the production of all those vehicles.  They see the demand for EVs in China, and also Europe, help them beat their goal to produce 1 million EVs per year by 2025.
https://electrek.co/2018/06/22/volkswagen-mega-factory-china-electric-vehicles/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4390 on: June 23, 2018, 01:32:42 PM »
Tesla update.

Brief video clip of Tesla Semi truck with large trailer driving — very quietly! — over the Golden Gate Bridge.
https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1009470198896738305

Reports of parking lots full of Model 3 awaiting delivery.  (Here, California.  The same seen in Canada!)
https://twitter.com/teslabull/status/1010252858325852161
https://twitter.com/cecsec214/status/1010253440650489857

Brief report: His son’s life-changing summer at Tesla.  So far.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1009782470223548416

Why is the Fremont factory so full that they need a prefab metal building to house their new General Assembly line?  Because unlike the NUMMI factory, Tesla makes a lot of its own parts.  Like, the seats.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1010393272529764352
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4391 on: June 23, 2018, 03:45:41 PM »
The number of EV's worldwide (personal transport only) grew by over 50% in 2017, from 1.9 to 3.1 million.

https://www.metering.com/industry-sectors/smart-energy/global-ev-market-share/

We should expect that the growth of EV's will continue to expand exponentially. Definitely great news.

While I could not find a total for 2017, there were 947 million personal transport vehicles on the road in 2015...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/281134/number-of-vehicles-in-use-worldwide/

...and sales were 88.1 million in 2016 and 81 million in 2018 for a total of 1.136 billion on the road worldwide. EV's now comprise .0000002% of the total. It would be safe to say that EV's currently are having a negligible impact on the demand for fossil fuels.

Since aggregate fossil fuel demand is a function of not only the number of ICEV's but also miles driven per vehicle, I've tried to capture data here as well. It has been more difficult to find this data. As I dug to find this info, it occurred to me that we may just want to look at total miles driven. This of course does not account for improvements in mpg. The growth in total miles driven in the U.S. has slowed since 2008 although it has been climbing since 2015.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M12MTVUSM227NFWA

I cannot find comparable statistics for worldwide miles driven and this is an important missing piece of data as we cannot assume driving patterns are similar across the planet. China has topped the 300 million mark for total vehicles on the road...

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2088876/chinas-more-300-million-vehicles-drive-pollution-congestion

...but the U.S. still leads in vehicle miles driven.

 https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1091470_u-s-to-stay-global-first-in-vehicle-miles-driven-says-futurist

Apparently, we love our cars more than the Chinese.


While it would take far more digging to get at the trends in worldwide fossil fuel demand for personal transport, there are a few conclusions I can make.

1. EV's have yet to make a significant impact on fuel demand.
3. It sucks to be Chinese. (see photo)

Edit: The road on the left on the attached photo is available only to high ranking party officials. (No. Just kidding. I have no idea what it is for.)
« Last Edit: June 23, 2018, 04:26:03 PM by Shared Humanity »

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 81
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4392 on: June 23, 2018, 04:29:21 PM »
2. Robotaxis are an annoying distraction.

Well people are entitled to their opinions, each to their own. FWIW my opinion is that robotaxis are interesting, potentially significant change and I like to hear what Bob and others have to say.

Posts saying what Bob is writing is rubbish without clearly pointing out what flaws they are attacking seem more like the annoying distraction to me.

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4393 on: June 23, 2018, 04:31:29 PM »
First, you are right of course. EVs will take decades to replace ICEs. The numbers usually don't lie. And even once they begin in earnest, revolutions take time to complete and reach all corners of the globe, even in this day and age. And this is is especially true where infrastructure is required - charging stations and an enhanced electricity grid in the case of EVs, not to mention deeper issues like manufacturing capacity and mining capacity.
But besides all those points the issue of robotaxis could speed up deploymemt by IF indeed taxi rates will be extremely low (to me a big if). In such a case many people will forego owning a car, and the replacement job will be much/somewhat faster.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4394 on: June 23, 2018, 04:55:11 PM »
... EVs will take decades to replace ICEs. ...

It took only 15 years for cell phone ownership to reach 90% of the U.S. population.  And think of all the infrastructure that required.  We didn’t need to wait for cell phones to “replace” landlines. 

Most new EV adopters have the infrastructure they need already, in their garage.  And public charging is growing fast, to support them and the rest.  I believe EVs might follow a similar adoption track — I admit, it’s hard to visualize at this point!  The next three years should see the curve start to go vertical.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4395 on: June 23, 2018, 05:09:51 PM »
Obviously none of us know exactly what will happen in the future but the past might give us a clue or two. 

Take a look at how new technology has replaced old technology over the last ~100 years.



 There's a typical pattern we see over and over.  Slow starts accelerating to higher rates of adoption until, generally, the market is saturated.  As saturation is reached there's often a slowdown showing a small percentage of holdouts.

The look at curves for the earlier part of the century vs. the last few decades.  Steeper curves, faster transitions.

Now let's imagine how the curve for EV adoption will look.  We're obviously in the slow start phase.  There are few long range EVs available, most expensive.  And even the lower range EVs are more expensive than similar ICEVs.  The one longer range, not-too-expensive EV (Tesla 3) is quantity limited.

This condition won't last.  Next year multiple companies are supposed to start selling long range EVs.  Large battery plants are under construction which will allow EVs to equal ICEVs in price and then drop lower.  Rapid chargers will allow EV drivers to drive anywhere that ICEVs might go.

In 202x new car buyers should be able to purchase a long range EV for less money than a same-feature ICEV.  And pay less to operate the EV.

Will the market switch?  I think it will switch extremely fast.  By the market I mean what new car buyers purchase each year.  I'm looking forward to watching EVs add their curve to the graph.


Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4396 on: June 23, 2018, 05:17:53 PM »
2. Robotaxis are an annoying distraction.

Well people are entitled to their opinions, each to their own. FWIW my opinion is that robotaxis are interesting, potentially significant change and I like to hear what Bob and others have to say.

Posts saying what Bob is writing is rubbish without clearly pointing out what flaws they are attacking seem more like the annoying distraction to me.

You're right. I've edited this comment.

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4397 on: June 23, 2018, 05:25:30 PM »
There is no question that EV production and sales growth will be spectacular, rapidly gobbling up market share. It will still take some years before it will grow from 1.3 million per year to 80 million per year and capture most of the new car market. It cannot happen too fast for me.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 41
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4398 on: June 23, 2018, 05:31:27 PM »
Shared - If I make a mistake, say something wrong, I want to be corrected. 

It's not fun to be shown wrong, but I don't want to walk around with incorrect information in my head.  I view this site as something like a seminar similar to a couple I had in grad school in which participants brought in interesting (or crappy) studies they had found or ideas they were working through and others engaged in constructive criticism of those studies/ideas.  It was a wonderful way to learn new information and to sharpen one's thought process. 

At this point in time this site has multiple people who search for new information and bring it to the readers.  Conversations, generally, are about things of some substance.  I've pretty much quit reading the comments on Electrek due to the shallow, argumentative nature of too many commenters.


Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4399 on: June 23, 2018, 06:04:41 PM »
Bob - I actually value the info you provide and my responding to your comments is evidence of that. I am a pessimistic person with regards to AGW which is why I disagree with some here. I will work to quit being so personal in my replies. It is unfair, unwarranted and disrespectful.