Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....  (Read 554992 times)

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3136
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 93
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4650 on: July 14, 2018, 06:46:56 PM »
So, why do I insist on looking at the hard facts regarding the transportation industry? Am I trying to depress myself and others here?

While these numbers can be depressing, if we are ever going to develop the political will to tackle the problem and in the time frame required to avoid catastrophic climate change, we need to understand the nature of the problem. If we are to have a zero emissions or near zero emissions transportation industry by 2040, the manufacture of ICE vehicles must cease completely in the next few years. Our current transition to EV's is woefully inadequate and relying on the market to get where we need to be is going to kill us.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4651 on: July 14, 2018, 06:52:45 PM »
Quote
And the average sales price of these vehicles was $33,560.

The thing to keep in mind with the Model 3 is that it is being purchased not only by people who would buy a $35,000 car.  Many people waiting in line at Tesla stores in 2016 to make a reservation said that this would be the most expensive car they’ve ever purchased.  Others, as we see above, were in the market for a car much more expensive than $35k, but chose the Model 3 over other well-known, “status” car brands — because they really liked the car.

When the iPhone first came out, the common retort was, “No one will pay $400 for a smart phone.”  EVs, with their lower cost of ownership and longer potential lifespan, will up-end traditional car sales habits.  Adoption will happen much more quickly than historical trends would suggest.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3136
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 93
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4652 on: July 14, 2018, 06:56:51 PM »
Adoption will happen much more quickly than historical trends would suggest.

Would you please look at industry statistics so we can have a meaningful discussion and not be talking past each other?

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4653 on: July 14, 2018, 07:00:44 PM »
A Tesla production associate tweeted:
7/13/18, 3:47 AM
Over 2000 cars in 2 days, and were not slammed. Ez money.
https://twitter.com/vickisalvador/status/1017676975702302720

Those cars will be delivered in 2-3 weeks, but Tesla doesn't have to pay for the parts for another 60-90 days….

Tesla accelerates Model 3 delivery timelines on new orders
Quote
Just a few weeks after updating the delivery timelines of all Model 3 versions available to order, Tesla is updating them again to accelerate deliveries for new orders.

Some Model 3 buyers could even get their car in a month.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/14/tesla-model-3-delivery-timelines-new-orders/


Wake up old school US auto manufacturers! @Tesla sold 200,000 EVs in America while you were asleep! Most of you will not survive the EV revolution! @Tesla did this despite every roadblock from dealerships and no ability to directly sell in some states.
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1017387573566754817


Tom Randall interviews Elon Musk:
The Model 3 is:  ‘The Last Bet-the-Company Situation’: Q&A With Elon Musk
Quote
TR:  Then why not reach out? Detroit was shouting, “That’s not going to work.”
EM:  Well, when have they not said that? When was the last time they said it would work? Can you recall at any point in the history of Tesla where they said it would work? Is there like some point I didn't notice? Because from my perspective, for the last 15 years that is all they have said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-07-13/-the-last-bet-the-company-situation-q-amp-a-with-elon-musk



Chinese mainstream media massively report Tesla CEO @elonmusk signing ceremony with Shanghai Mayor Ying Yong. Shanghai Municipal Party Committee Secretary Li Qiang mentioned will fully support @Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory during the meeting. $TSLA Video….

-@elonmusk mention The Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory is the first super factory outside the US and will be the most advanced.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1018133348177154048


Another Tesla production associate:
Quote
Every time I see an article like, “Tesla Employees Worked to the Bone, Treated Unfairly” and it’s all written because one person bitched online, I want to find that person and tell them to toughen up or quit. I remember one of the managers explicitly saying, day one of training…
…to expect to work 5 to 7 days a week 12 hours a day, and if that if you can’t handle that, then work somewhere else. It’s not like you aren’t compensated. OT, time and a half, double time... by day 6 you’re making at least 40 bucks an hour.
    If you bitch and complain ever single day, there’s an easy solution. Find another job. Those of us who work hard to push these cars out, don’t need lazy people like you on the line bringing the rest of us down. Yeah, it ducks being on your feet 12 hours a day, but it’s a job…
…and it pays the bills, and ever one of us in the factory is changing the world each car we ship. People love our cars and they love what we do and that should make each and every one of us proud to work here. Work hard, shut up, or get out. That simple. You hate…
…the hours and the money? Cool then. The Mcdonald across the street is always hiring.

End rant.
https://twitter.com/jotakusan/status/1018035274998210561
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

jacksmith4tx

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 266
    • View Profile
    • Photon mine
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4654 on: July 14, 2018, 07:18:21 PM »
Shared Humanity,
I appreciate your pragmatic view. I struggle with the two dominate forces that will decide how humanity will respond to climate change. On one hand there is the insightful analysis of Daniel Kahneman (author of Thinking Fast and Slow) verses the exponential speed of technology to solve the the very problems it creates.

My favorite scenario would be to use technology to reprogram human nature.
Full disclosure: I don't believe in free will either.
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4655 on: July 14, 2018, 07:34:38 PM »
“It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future”
Industry forecasts are as inaccurate as most everyone else’s.  Even Elon Musk moved up the production schedule for the Model 3 by two years when the number of reservations in March/April 2016 exceeded even Tesla’s most optimistic estimates.

All I know is that we are on the cusp of a vehicle revolution.  Its adoption S-curve is turning vertical.  We may not be able to accurately predict exactly how, when, or why that ramp happens, but the adoption S-curve means that future adoption will happen faster — much faster! — than it is happening today.


US sales of BMW 3/4 Series are plunging...
... while its stock is trading relatively okay.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1017158767379656704
Chart below.

Tesla On Track To Pass Porsche In Annual Vehicle Sales In 2018 | CleanTechnica
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/11/tesla-on-track-to-pass-porsche-in-annual-vehicle-sales-in-2018/

Please Stop Saying “EVs Are Only 1% Of Auto Sales In The US”
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/01/please-stop-saying-evs-are-only-1-of-auto-sales-in-the-us/
Chart below.

The world’s largest car market just announced an imminent end to gas and diesel cars
A romp through recent, remarkable news about electric vehicles in China and beyond.
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/13/16293258/ev-revolution
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3136
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 93
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4656 on: July 14, 2018, 09:49:49 PM »
“It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future”

Except the info you have provided in this comment is in line exactly with what I am saying. U.S. EV sales in 2018 will be 1.75% of the market, a dramatic growth over the previous 2 years. This is very good news. However...

There will be 18 million plus vehicles sold in the U.S. so EV sales will be perhaps 350K of the total. We will be putting 17.6 million new ICE vehicles on the road this year. The numbers in subsequent years will also be unacceptably high.

EV sales are moving rapidly up and this growth is woefully inadequate.

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2969
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 317
  • Likes Given: 589
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4657 on: July 15, 2018, 01:11:38 AM »
Market forces will not cause the demise of the market for new ICE vehicles before 2030 nor the market for used ICE vehicles before 2040. The only thing that will drive ICE vehicles off the planet faster is if governments legislate them out of existence. This can be done by...

1. Put in place taxes on gasoline that triple or quadruple the cost of a gallon of gas.
2. Place a luxury tax on all ICE vehicles so as to double the price of a new ICE vehicle.
3. Legislate a large credit for owners of used ICE vehicles who trade them in for EV's and send these ICE vehicles to be scrapped.

This is not an all inclusive list but the effect of each of these is the same. They serve to increase the operating cost of an ICE vehicle when compared to an EV.
All true. But the government could do a lot more on the supply side too. What if the US government were to declare war on AGW, and move to a wartime economy where it is okay for the government to pay for new private factories? Production capacity could quadruple and the revolution would happen much faster.
In more conservative terms, the Fed could as part of its endless QE programs make a $10B loan to Tesla (and to other EV manufacturers). Ramp-up will happen much faster.
BTW, 1 and 2 on your list are already in place in Israel, but availability of pure EVs in any reasonable price range is nil.

Buddy

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4658 on: July 15, 2018, 03:25:18 AM »
My neighbor "Bob" is looking for a new car, but would buy a used car if it made more sense (and $$$).  So we "chewed the fat (talked) about some of the options he has.  He wanted to stay under $50,000.

So Bob and I talked about a few options:

1). He could buy a new ICE vehicle now for $50,000

2).  He could buy a new electric vehicle .... I suggested a Tesla 3 ....  for $50,000

3). Or .... Bob said his wife suggested a used Toyota RAV4 ..... a 2014 Hybrid for $16,000 with 40K miles on it.  I asked Melissa why she wanted Bob to get a used hybrid now?

His wife suggested that he should buy the RAV4 now ..... and be "good to the environment" ..... and in another 4 or 5 years, then he could get the electric vehicle he wanted.  I said ..... "why wait .... that Tesla 3 is one sharp car."

Melissa is no dummie (and cute too🙄).  But this is how she thought:

A). A hybrid with 40,000 miles isn't bad.  And the 2012 - 2014 RAV4 actually have a Tesla lithium ion battery in them.  "Oh I said" .... "I didn't know that."

B). If Bob waits 4 or 5 years to buy a NEW electric vehicle, the EV's at that point will be less expensive OR the battery's will have more range .  In other words, more range for your $.

C). In 4 or 5 years, there will be a LOT more EV's to choose from.

D). If Bob spent $16,000 now, he could trade it in for maybe $8K in 4 years, so it would cost him $2K per year + operating costs.

E). Then,  in 4 or 5 years Bob can spend $50 - $60 K (or more) if he wants to get the car of his dreams.

F). Melissa then went on to describe that business models in the transportation arena are changing quickly, and Bob may not even need a car in 5 - 7 years.  There's this "TAAS" (transportation as a service) that has started up, and BIG players are putting in a lot of money into this new area.  If it develops as expected, Bob may not even want to buy a new car then ..... because it won't make any sense. 

So .... she talked Bob into the used RAV4 ...... and in another 4 years they will reassess .... and see what makes sense then.  She said anyone that plunks down any significant money for an ICE car after 2022 or so will be "missing the boat" ....  and paying a lot of money to do so.  Melissa said you won't even be able to buy an ICE passenger car from a major manufacturer in the US after 2025. 

That Melissa is one sharp cookie.  Did I mention she is cute?😳

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4659 on: July 15, 2018, 01:33:30 PM »
...
EV sales are moving rapidly up and this growth is woefully inadequate.

I say again:  “Adoption S-Curve.”  In just a few years, EV growth will astound you.

Think about everything that must have happened to go from one car in a busy NYC street in 1900... to all cars but one horse in 1913.  Growth, growth, growth!  And adoption happens even faster today than it did all those years ago.

It is illogical to assume a steady state of vehicle production or adoption, whether ICE or EV.  I don’t think this thread has discussed the possible effects of an economic recession, which we are overdue for and will likely occur in the next year or two at the latest.  In the Great Recession of 2008, car sales plummeted — but did not go to zero.  (There were three recessions between 1900 and 1913!)  Cheaper cost of EV ownership could become an important factor.  Even today’s “rich” folks might discover a reason to change their usual buying habits during a recession.  Between a recession and the EV revolution, the legacy auto industry will transform, or die, very soon now.

In short:  think exponential, not linear, EV growth.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2018, 01:39:12 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Buddy

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4660 on: July 15, 2018, 02:05:54 PM »
First Waymo Jaguar I-PACE Hits The Streets Of San Francisco

Quote
Waymo, the self driving spin-off from Google, has ordered 20,000 self-driving versions of the Jaguar I-PACE electric SUV, to be delivered over the next two years. The first three cars — minus the proprietary autonomous driving technology that sits like a lighthouse on top of its self-driving Pacifica Hybrid minivans — have now arrived in San Francisco, where they will be used to create detailed driving maps of the city and explore the durability and maintenance history for the cars. The Jaguars will join Waymo’s fleet of 62,000 self driving Pacifica Hybrids. Together, they will equal one quarter of all the taxis and limousines in America.

Maybe "Melissa" IS on to something......

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/15/first-waymo-jaguar-i-pace-hits-the-streets-of-san-francisco/
« Last Edit: July 15, 2018, 02:29:29 PM by Buddy »
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4661 on: July 15, 2018, 03:55:31 PM »
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs)
7/15/18, 7:08 AM
“#Tesla registered 3,424 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 75464. ...”
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1018452208478666752

That makes 19,067 July 1 through 15.

Versus 4,664 in all of June.  And 18,014 in all of May.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3136
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 93
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4662 on: July 15, 2018, 07:06:22 PM »
Market forces will not cause the demise of the market for new ICE vehicles before 2030 nor the market for used ICE vehicles before 2040. The only thing that will drive ICE vehicles off the planet faster is if governments legislate them out of existence. This can be done by...

1. Put in place taxes on gasoline that triple or quadruple the cost of a gallon of gas.
2. Place a luxury tax on all ICE vehicles so as to double the price of a new ICE vehicle.
3. Legislate a large credit for owners of used ICE vehicles who trade them in for EV's and send these ICE vehicles to be scrapped.

This is not an all inclusive list but the effect of each of these is the same. They serve to increase the operating cost of an ICE vehicle when compared to an EV.
All true. But the government could do a lot more on the supply side too. What if the US government were to declare war on AGW, and move to a wartime economy where it is okay for the government to pay for new private factories? Production capacity could quadruple and the revolution would happen much faster.
In more conservative terms, the Fed could as part of its endless QE programs make a $10B loan to Tesla (and to other EV manufacturers). Ramp-up will happen much faster.
BTW, 1 and 2 on your list are already in place in Israel, but availability of pure EVs in any reasonable price range is nil.

Absolutely. This is what needs to happen. We have the technology. We need to place ourselves on a war footing, recognizing AGW as the existential crisis that it is.

TerryM

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 4105
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4663 on: July 15, 2018, 07:32:01 PM »

Absolutely. This is what needs to happen. We have the technology. We need to place ourselves on a war footing, recognizing AGW as the existential crisis that it is.
& we need to do this before the Twentieth Century ends. :(
Terry

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4664 on: July 15, 2018, 07:50:20 PM »
Market forces will not cause the demise of the market for new ICE vehicles before 2030 nor the market for used ICE vehicles before 2040. The only thing that will drive ICE vehicles off the planet faster is if governments legislate them out of existence. This can be done by...

1. Put in place taxes on gasoline that triple or quadruple the cost of a gallon of gas.
2. Place a luxury tax on all ICE vehicles so as to double the price of a new ICE vehicle.
3. Legislate a large credit for owners of used ICE vehicles who trade them in for EV's and send these ICE vehicles to be scrapped.

This is not an all inclusive list but the effect of each of these is the same. They serve to increase the operating cost of an ICE vehicle when compared to an EV.
All true. But the government could do a lot more on the supply side too. What if the US government were to declare war on AGW, and move to a wartime economy where it is okay for the government to pay for new private factories? Production capacity could quadruple and the revolution would happen much faster.
In more conservative terms, the Fed could as part of its endless QE programs make a $10B loan to Tesla (and to other EV manufacturers). Ramp-up will happen much faster.
BTW, 1 and 2 on your list are already in place in Israel, but availability of pure EVs in any reasonable price range is nil.

Absolutely. This is what needs to happen. We have the technology. We need to place ourselves on a war footing, recognizing AGW as the existential crisis that it is.

Of course government incentives/punishment would help accelerate the adoption of EVs.  I would love to see more of it.  But there were no laws encouraging people to buy microwave ovens, VCRs, air conditioners, computers, or cellphones — yet most U.S. households adopted them within 10 years or less. 

Demand often grows for the weirdest of reasons, but it’s unwise to ignore market forces.  As companies learn how to make a profit selling the kind of EVs people want, the market will grow exponentially.

Don’t overlook the government help we are seeing today, at a more local level:  tax breaks, investments and real estate deals enabling the building of new vehicle manufacturing and battery factories, many claiming “biggest in the world” status.  They are a win for local economies, and, more and more, the factories themselves are being built and run sustainably — which could have been a hard sell if done under duress.  The EV market is readying its great leap forward, even in today’s uncertain environment.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4665 on: July 16, 2018, 04:13:06 PM »
"For now, it appears GM’s plans are to run its own transportation network company (TNC). If they can get the technology right and execute on this plan, then when we run this scenario, we see them having a fleet of ~800,000 vehicles by 2030 driving ~58 billion miles that year.

GM's self-driving car unit could be worth $43 billion — nearly 4 times the valuation it received 6 weeks ago, RBC says
https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/gm-apos-self-driving-car-133500602.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

jacksmith4tx

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 266
    • View Profile
    • Photon mine
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4666 on: July 16, 2018, 04:28:39 PM »
If we could fully utilize the duty cycle of autonomous vehicles I wonder if we could actually reduce the number of vehicles produced annually by a really meaningful percentage. Something like a cutting a third of current global production could benefit the entire biosphere just by reducing raw material demand.
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

Buddy

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4667 on: July 16, 2018, 04:39:43 PM »
I believe that Tony Seba thinks tha vehicle COUNT could drop by 70 - 80% eventually.  By 2030, he thinks that vehicle MILES will > 90% from the TAAS (Uber, Lyfy, etc) and 10% will be from people who own their own cars.

Don't quote me on those numbers ..... I'll have to check those.  But I think those are close.
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Archimid

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1530
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 59
  • Likes Given: 83
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4668 on: July 16, 2018, 06:06:44 PM »
Update from Munro's on the Tesla Model 3 complete tear down:




Edit: One of my favorite bits, the Model 3 batteries are 20% bigger and 50% more powerful!
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • ASIF Royalty
  • *****
  • Posts: 6075
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 241
  • Likes Given: 173
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4669 on: July 16, 2018, 06:13:37 PM »
Thanks for this, Archimid. Interesting to see the Munro swingaround.  :)
Compare, compare, compare

jacksmith4tx

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 266
    • View Profile
    • Photon mine
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4670 on: July 16, 2018, 06:45:21 PM »
...
Edit: One of my favorite bits, the Model 3 batteries are 20% bigger and 50% more powerful!
I sure hope there is Tesla battery conversion kit for my volt battery if I ever need to replace it. At best I can get about 45mi. out of the stock system so I might more than double that.
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

Tor Bejnar

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2156
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4671 on: July 16, 2018, 07:06:50 PM »
Re Tesla and Monro:  not often does someone admit to eating crow (and repeatedly so).  I also liked the "30% profitability" for potential longevity of the Tesla corp.  (If I was in the market for a new car, I might say it's too high.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4672 on: July 16, 2018, 07:09:15 PM »
Munro Teardown — update video — see Archimid’s post above for the link!

Munro Teardown Shows Tesla Model 3 Solidly Profitable …
"profitable by over 30% ... so nobody in the auto industry is getting 30% now yes they are but not in the electric field no electric car is getting 30% net nobody or 30% growth" $TSLA #tesla
https://twitter.com/lordastinus/status/1018870946478903297

Sandy Munro update --
"Mislead by first impressions." 
"A symphony of engineering"
"Very very impressed with battery"
"I have to eat crow ..."
MODEL 3 SOLIDLY PROFITABLE.  "OVER 30%"
https://twitter.com/groggytbear/status/1018869708207149058




Fridman estimates that Tesla vehicles have driven over 7.8 billion miles in the aggregate, over 1.2 billion of those miles in Autopilot mode and over 1.6 billion in shadow mode.
Autopilot-capable vehicles are operating in Autopilot mode about 25% of the time.
$TSLA twitter.com/evannex_com/st…

https://twitter.com/vgrinshpun/status/1018843096535183366


In 2017, Tesla's sales in China reached more than 2 billion US dollars, an increase of nearly 90% compared with 2016, accounting for about 50% of the total sales of the year. As of now, China is already Tesla's largest market outside the United States. $TSLA

https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1018846468155641856
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4673 on: July 16, 2018, 07:17:44 PM »
Re Tesla and Monro:  not often does someone admit to eating crow (and repeatedly so).  I also liked the "30% profitability" for potential longevity of the Tesla corp.  (If I was in the market for a new car, I might say it's too high.)

This estimate was made for the rear-wheel-drive, long range battery version, right?  So the high-option versions are likely more profitable, and the base version likely will be less so.  (Which is why they are expanding the line to make the more expensive versions first, and delaying the $35k version for later.)


Edit: “Sandy says the base model can still make a double-digit gross profit.”
https://twitter.com/groggytbear/status/1018908652936269830
« Last Edit: July 16, 2018, 09:09:47 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4674 on: July 16, 2018, 07:50:01 PM »
From the above video:

“Munro Tesla Model 3 Solidly Profitable ... "rear view mirror Tesla 3 it costs about $29.5,BMW i3 $93 approx...Chevy bolt 164... that's the magic associated with using components...already on the car ... you make them work 2x or 3x duty" ...”
https://twitter.com/lordastinus/status/1018873341833285632

Edit:
“Sandy Munroe about #Tesla #Model3 new 2170 battery cell: "20% bigger than the old, it has new chemistry and quite frankly it gives you 50% more power". LG, Samsung battery tech bite the dust compared to what @Tesla @panasonic has achieved with 2170. ... “
https://twitter.com/martinengwicht/status/1018889609877577733
« Last Edit: July 16, 2018, 10:02:22 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4675 on: July 16, 2018, 08:07:04 PM »
Hypermiling!  Constant speed on a track; then autopilot with a dummy in the drivers seat.

Tesla Model S, Model 3 set hypermile records: 701 mi. (1128 km) and 623 mi. (1001 km), respectively
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-s-model-3-hypermile-world-records/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4676 on: July 17, 2018, 01:02:43 AM »
Norway Tesla deliveries 1H2018 vs. 1H2017:
Model X up 43% to 2,206.  Now the biggest selling luxury car.
Model S up 115% to 1,861.   Now the third biggest seller.

Jaguar I-PACE:  1 sale

ICE:
Porsche Cayenne down 56% to 45
Jaguar F-Pace down 51% to 40

https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1018955417408409600



All the good news is bad news for the masses of people shorting Tesla stock:

“Shorts are already nervous about the second independent analysis [Munro] demonstrating high profit margins for #Tesla #Model3. …”
“As a short, this concerns me. The German firm found potential high profit too…”
https://twitter.com/alterviggo/status/1018975105836244992
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4677 on: July 17, 2018, 01:45:41 AM »
“Spotted: @NetZeroMN's striped Tesla, inspired by @ed_hawkins' stunning climate visualization.“
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1018517799981985793
Photos below, more at the link. 

“The original graphics are online if anyone else wants to use them for creative projects!”
http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2018/warming-stripes/
             https://twitter.com/ed_hawkins/status/1018730983657533440
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Buddy

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4678 on: July 17, 2018, 03:12:31 AM »
Those drop in sales of Porsche Cayenne and Jaguar F Pace are interesting.  I expect those to continue over the next few years and the drops will accelerate in ICE cars, especially the more expensive ICE vehicles.

Buying a $25K - $35K dinosaur is bad enough ..... buying a $65K - $150K+ is a lot worse.  And most people who are spending that kind of coin don’t want to buy “a dog”.  The new Porsche EV that will be coming out is going to put a damper on CURRENT ICE sales in the Porsche brand. 

Buyers are going to FORCE car manufacturers to speed up their EV plans. 
« Last Edit: July 17, 2018, 01:49:48 PM by Buddy »
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Tor Bejnar

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2156
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4679 on: July 17, 2018, 01:40:26 PM »
$800 Million Says a Self-Driving Car Looks Like This

Zoox (Bloomberg feature article and 5-minute video showing the technology at work)
Quote
...
Of the  many self-driving car hopefuls, Zoox Inc. may be the most daring. The company’s robot taxi could be amazing or terrible. It might change the world—not in the contemporary Silicon Valley sense, but in a meaningful sense—or it might be an epic flop. At this point, it’s hard to tell how much of the sales pitch is real. Luckily for the company’s founders, there have been plenty of rich people excited to, as Hunter S. Thompson once put it, buy the ticket and take the ride.
...
The Zoox vehicle makes its way through the suburbs with ease, politely waiting its turn at four-way stops and giving cyclists plenty of room. When a black delivery truck unexpectedly whips across two lanes of traffic, the Highlander stops and avoids a collision. A few minutes later, we get on the freeway, and the Toyota merges in a manner that could be described as ultra-safe mode. Instead of jamming the accelerator to outrun oncoming traffic, it hugs the edge of the on-ramp as it waits for an opening.

It’s in the city, though, where Zoox really shines. The screens inside the vehicle show an overwhelming amount of information, as the computer vision software keeps tracks of cars, people, stoplights, and road markers all at the same time. Unlike many self-driving cars, it glides to stops. At an intersection with a left turn, it allows oncoming traffic to pass and then waits for some slow pedestrians. Overall, the vehicle performs so well that you forget no one is driving.
...
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Zythryn

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 54
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4680 on: July 17, 2018, 03:03:33 PM »
“Spotted: @NetZeroMN's striped Tesla, inspired by @ed_hawkins' stunning climate visualization.“
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1018517799981985793
...

Now I know I hit the big time, I’ve been posted to the Arctic Sea Ice forum  :)

I wish, instead of stenciling on the CO2 graphs I had used the historical temperature graphs.
Great conversation starter though!

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3136
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 93
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4681 on: July 17, 2018, 04:05:27 PM »
...
EV sales are moving rapidly up and this growth is woefully inadequate.

It is illogical to assume a steady state of vehicle production or adoption, whether ICE or EV. 

In short:  think exponential, not linear, EV growth.

I am not assuming steady state or linear growth. EV sales growth is exponential and I expect this to continue. (See Chart)

While we are seeing exponential growth in EV sales, we cannot lose sight of the fact that there were 86 million cars purchased in 2017, an increase of 2 million cars over 2016. With total EV sales in 2017 of 1.3 million, sales volume did not even satisfy the increase in total car sales.

http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/

With projected EV sales of 1.9 million in 2018, a spectacular 46% growth over 2017. it is quite possible sales will not satisfy total vehicle sales growth in 2018 either.

We put nearly 85 million new ICE vehicles on the road in 2017. We will put a similar number on the road in 2018. And these new car buyers will not be trading these cars in for EV's anytime soon. Lets assume EV sales doubles annually. In 2019, sales will be 4 million and another 82 million ICE vehicles will hit the road. In 2020, EV sales will hit 8 million and another 78 million ICE vehicles will hit the road. In 2021, another 70 million ICE vehicles hit the road although I have my doubts that EV sales will be 16 million in 2021 as it takes at least 2 years to design and bring a new car to market.

I will stand by my statement that simply relying on market forces will not get us where we need to be fast enough.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2018, 04:41:58 PM by Shared Humanity »

Sleepy

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1140
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 68
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4682 on: July 17, 2018, 04:08:47 PM »
Thanks for this, Archimid. Interesting to see the Munro swingaround.  :)

Definitely more postive, but a bit meagre compared to the earlier videos in March and April? But I guess someone has to actually buy their report as well.  :)

Tesla Model 3: Inside & Out - Autoline After Hours 417

Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Artful Dodger

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 453
  • The traps have got him, and that's all about it!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 72
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4683 on: July 17, 2018, 04:59:43 PM »
What if the US government were to declare war on AGW, and move to a wartime economy where it is okay for the government to pay for new private factories?

Hi Oren,

This has already happened, just that the U.S. Gov't is on the wrong side of the war. They've generaled the US State Dept with a former CEO of Exxon-Mobile and the EPA with a climate denying, EPA-suing, train-wreck of a curmudgeon. They want to force consumers to buy coal-fired electricity from private companies because 'National Security'. And they attack their allies while supporting the tyrants abroad.

Sounds like a war to me.

Regards,
Lodger
Cheers!
Lodger

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4684 on: July 17, 2018, 07:04:08 PM »
“Spotted: @NetZeroMN's striped Tesla, inspired by @ed_hawkins' stunning climate visualization.“
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1018517799981985793
...

Now I know I hit the big time, I’ve been posted to the Arctic Sea Ice forum  :)

I wish, instead of stenciling on the CO2 graphs I had used the historical temperature graphs.
Great conversation starter though!

Zythryn,
Wow, so beautiful, eye-catching — and so meaningful!  I can’t think of a better way to entice people to engage in a discussion about climate change.  Thank you for your efforts!
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4685 on: July 17, 2018, 08:21:16 PM »
SH wrote @#4722:
Quote
We put nearly 85 million new ICE vehicles on the road in 2017. We will put a similar number on the road in 2018. And these new car buyers will not be trading these cars in for EV's anytime soon. Lets assume EV sales doubles annually. In 2019, sales will be 4 million and another 82 million ICE vehicles will hit the road. In 2020, EV sales will hit 8 million and another 78 million ICE vehicles will hit the road. In 2021, another 70 million ICE vehicles hit the road although I have my doubts that EV sales will be 16 million in 2021 as it takes at least 2 years to design and bring a new car to market.

You are assuming that total annual car sales remain steady, which may not be valid, for reasons such as the rise of car sharing, autonomous vehicles, new mass transit solutions, and an impending economic recession — all of which may depress new car sales substantially.

“And these new car buyers will not be trading these cars in for EV's anytime soon.”
Again, you are using a historical paradigm, this time of keeping one ICE vehicle until you are ready to buy another ICE vehicle.  There are marked benefits to owning an EV over an ICE car, so it makes sense that many ICE owners will switch over to an EV earlier than usual.  Or, that they ditch their ICE car and make use of other transportation entirely.

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4686 on: July 18, 2018, 01:36:56 PM »
Nissan Leaf becomes best-selling EV in Europe as new gen gets 37,000 orders, 18,000 deliveries
Quote
Nissan is finding a market for the next-gen Leaf in Europe where it has become the best-selling all-electric vehicle with now 18,000 deliveries and 37,0000 orders, according to the automaker.

It makes the Leaf a production constrained vehicle – joining the ranks of other EVs that can’t be produced fast enough for consumers, like the Tesla Model 3 and Chevy Bolt EV.
...
It shows the market in Europe for the new Leaf is way stronger than in the US where the vehicle has accumulated just over 6,000 sales during the first half of the year, which makes it the 5th best-selling vehicles behind all 3 of Tesla’s models and the Chevy Bolt EV.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/18/nissan-leaf-best-selling-ev-europe/



Germany’s on-again, off-again ‘no EV rebates for Teslas’ argument is on again:
Tesla buyers are asked to pay back €4,000 EV incentive in Germany, Tesla says it will cover cost and fight decision
https://electrek.co/2018/07/17/tesla-pay-back-ev-incentive-germany-loophole-fails/



Tesla’s fleet has accumulated over 1.2 billion miles on Autopilot and even more in ‘shadow mode’, report says
Quote
Automakers and tech companies are rushing to bring autonomous driving systems to market and accumulating mileage with their test vehicles.

Tesla is taking a different approach by accumulating mileage with its customer fleet through its Autopilot driver assist program.

A new report now estimates that Tesla has accumulated over 1.2 billion miles on Autopilot and more than twice that when accounting for mileage in ‘shadow mode’.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/17/tesla-autopilot-miles-shadow-mode-report/
« Last Edit: July 18, 2018, 01:52:49 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4687 on: July 18, 2018, 01:39:08 PM »
Finally, definitive data:

Teslas Are Not More Prone To Fire Than Other Cars, Says NTSB Investigator
Quote
...statistics from the National Fire Protection Association, which stated that there were roughly 173,000 reported vehicle fires in the United States in 2016, the most recent year for which figures are available, according to Statista.com. Practically all of these incidents are from gas-powered cars, which translates to one ICE vehicle catching fire every 2-3 minutes, or 55 fires per 1 billion miles driven.

According to Tesla, the best comparison between its electric cars is the number of fires reported per 1 billion miles driven. There are currently 300,000 Teslas on the road today, and they have driven 7.5 billion miles. So far, about 40 fires have been reported, translating to 5 fires for every 1 billion miles traveled.
https://www.inquisitr.com/4987033/teslas-are-not-more-prone-to-fire-than-other-cars-says-ntsb-investigator/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Buddy

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4688 on: July 18, 2018, 01:44:46 PM »
If you think that just the last SIX MONTHS has been mind boggling in regards to all the upcoming vehicles coming out ...... now INCREASE that for the next 6 months.  And this includes cars, pickup trucks, semi's, logging trucks, yachts, ferry's, ships, motorcycles, boat engines, etc.  Strap yourself in as the transportation AND energy systems of the world continue to transform themselves at warp speed.....
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4689 on: July 19, 2018, 01:35:31 AM »
Nissan found guilty of using diesel emissions cheat device in South Korea
Quote
The South Korean government however ruled that the so-called device lowered nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions under testing, leading to excess NOx emissions when the system deactivated under normal driving conditions.
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/nissan-found-guilty-using-diesel-emissions-cheat-device-south-korea

Nissan looking desperate to sell the LEAF in U.S. — but it’s only trying in CARB/ZEV states
Nissan Offering $2,000 Cash Back On 2018 LEAF (In ZEV States)
https://insideevs.com/nissan-offering-2000-cash-back-on-2018-leaf-in-zev-states/amp/



Porsche will be building more expensive versions of the Taycan first, and cheaper ones later! Shocker!   /sarc
(But because every electric version will cannibalize the vastly more profitable maintenance profits on ICE Porsches, they can’t move too fast.  Production launch planned for late 2019.)

“[Porsche Taycan] is expected to be released with all-wheel drive initially, with talks of later vehicles having the option for a rear-wheel drive build.”
Quote
Ultimately, the Porsche executive stated that the warm reception to the Taycan is indicative of how keen car buyers are about zero-emissions vehicles. Pollich also acknowledged the importance of Tesla, its biggest rival in the electric car industry, for helping make EVs as viable and even preferable alternatives to gas-powered vehicles. The Porche exec further noted that it would be adopting a similar strategy as Tesla by creating a fast charger network for the Taycan and its future electric car offerings like the Mission E Cross Turismo.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/16/porsche-taycan-hits-nurburgring-for-more-pre-production-testing/



Toyota/Lexus still clings to an “all of the above” approach, including fuel cells:
All-electric vehicles not yet ready for primetime, says Lexus CEO as the luxury brand falls behind in electrification
Quote
As part of Toyota, Lexus has been following the lead of its parent company and hasn’t pushed hard for the electrification of its lineup.
Lexus has yet to release an all-electric vehicle despite virtually all premium brands, like its top German competitors Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz, going electric with new vehicles.
The head of the brand, Yoshihiro Sawa, now says that he believes that it is still too soon for EVs and therefore, they are not falling behind but having a better approach to alternative powertrains.

Nonetheless, Lexus has recently unveiled a new crossover concept supporting an all-electric powertrain and the automaker says it plans to launch its first all-electric vehicle in 2020 – around the same time Toyota plans its own rollout of electric vehicles.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/18/all-electric-vehicles-not-yet-ready-for-primetime-lexus-ceo/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Buddy

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4690 on: July 19, 2018, 02:49:57 PM »
Porsche had ‘fantastic’ reaction from customers for the yet-to-be-unveiled all-electric Taycan

Keep in mind, that as the excitement for electric cars continues to increase, this will lead to more and more "waiting" for the electric cars to come out, AND LESS AND LESS BUYING of ICE CARS. Especially (I believe) for manufacturers like Porsche and Audi.

By the way....I LOVE the Taycan, and if I were in the market for a performance car like a Porsche or Audi ..... I would CERTAINLY want to wait till the Taycan came out.  And it may "steal" some buyers that would normally not be thinking about a "4 seater" car. 

Throw in a recession or slow down of some sort ..... and we may very likely see weaker NEW CAR SALES in the next few years.  This would also negatively affect commodity prices .... but that's another subject.

https://electrek.co/2018/07/18/porsche-taycan-fantastic-reaction-electric/
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4691 on: July 20, 2018, 01:36:09 PM »
July 19, 2018
CNBC had this headline yesterday :  "Short Tesla, long internal combustion engine" !

This was the headline of a Barrons' story yesterday:  "Tesla Could Be Doomed by Earning Money"
Nothing Tesla does will please Wall Street.

;D
They’re an unprofitable automaker with too much profit per car that has no demand but too much forecasted cash inflow and may go bankrupt on Saturday
https://twitter.com/gwestr/status/1019674990235570179



Touring Tesla’s Model 3 production line, ‘the machine to build the machine’
Robots from suppliers Kuka and Fanuc — 1,028 machines in all — spin parts, screw in bolts and weld, sparks flying behind the plexiglass. Flashing red and yellow lights at each work station will signal when a particular robot requires maintenance, while a green light indicates smooth operation. Meanwhile, there’s almost as much activity — again, automated — happening overhead as there is on the floor.
“You pay for space in cubic feet — you might as well use it,” Mwangi said.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/amp/Touring-Tesla-s-Model-3-production-line-the-13089341.php



Wall Street Journal (!):
Quote
The Tesla brand has its share of haters, but none have yet driven the new Model 3 Performance—until now. Dan Neil takes a first turn behind the wheel of the dual-motor dynamo

I’m no financial analyst, but I do know cars. If you were hoping Tesla would fail on account of the Model 3 I’ve got bad news: This thing is magnificent, a little rainbow-farting space ship, so obviously representative of the next step in the history of autos. I know there are a lot of Tesla bears, haters and cynics out there. Tesla boss Elon Musk makes it easy. But in the spirit of charity I think we can all agree many brilliant people are putzes.

Show me another car with an all-glass roof and five-star rollover crash rating. Point out another $80,000 sedan that out-clouds a Rolls-Royce, out-punches a Porsche Boxster and gets an electric equivalent of 116 mpg. You can’t, unless you’re building something in your garage we don’t know about.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-ever-review-of-the-tesla-model-3-performance-a-thrilling-modern-marvel-1532022533?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/jwq5NMmVzi

Elon Musk:  Thanks Dan, you are a tough reviewer, so this means a lot coming from you. Please lmk even smallest nuance that can be improved.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1020067893222858752

<<@Danneilwsj, who up until now has been crowing about how $TSLA's Model 3 would be a mass market miracle, test drives a version costing $78K. What's the addressable market at that price, Dan?>>

“about 300,000 cars a year.”
https://twitter.com/danneilwsj/status/1020038003350212608



At some point someone’s going to clue in that the Model 3 is now outselling the Mercedes-Benz C-Class, the BMW 3 Series, and Audi A4. And it’s on the verge of outselling the entire Volvo lineup. And the entire Acura lineup. And the entire Cadillac lineup, and...
https://twitter.com/mtndrew1/status/1020067391470907392

—-
Tesla spokesperson, regarding the earlier Needham downgrade note, says "The Notion That Model 3 Cancellations Are Outpacing Orders Is Unequivocally False”

Elon Musk: Dunno where this bs is coming from. Who knows about the future, but last week we had over 2000 S/X and 5000 Model 3 *new* net orders.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1020108713061855233
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4692 on: July 20, 2018, 01:38:53 PM »
HAGERTY: THIS DECADE’S ‘GREATEST CAR’ IS THE TESLA MODEL S
Quote
If you’re a collector of classic cars, you’re probably familiar with Hagerty. Started in 1984, this industry leader protects over one million vehicles — insuring some of the world’s finest collector cars. With real-world expertise valuing the classics, Hagerty decided to put together a comprehensive list which includes: “the greatest vehicle of each decade, from the earliest days of the automobile to the present.”

Hagerty notes that their “final list, which spans everything from pre-War luxury to hot rods… highlights some of the brightest moments in automotive history.” What unites most cars on this list? Hagerty’s Andrew Newton explains, “cars still work pretty much the same way they always have, powered by a piston engine that’s fueled by the black goop that we pump out of the ground. Only one car of the 2010s has lit a different path.”

Newton concludes, “Tesla [Model S] has gone in a more radically different direction than any other car in recent memory. More importantly, it has done so with great success, because instead of coming out with an all-electric car that people felt that they should drive or that they had to drive, Tesla came out with an electric car that people really want to drive. It will always be remembered as the one that made electric cars truly desirable, and that’s why it is one of the greats.”
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-s-car-of-the-decade/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2969
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 317
  • Likes Given: 589
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4693 on: July 20, 2018, 04:00:03 PM »
Newton concludes, “Tesla [Model S] has gone in a more radically different direction than any other car in recent memory. More importantly, it has done so with great success, because instead of coming out with an all-electric car that people felt that they should drive or that they had to drive, Tesla came out with an electric car that people really want to drive. It will always be remembered as the one that made electric cars truly desirable, and that’s why it is one of the greats.”
I think this is Elon Musk's greatest achievement - regardless of whether anyone thinks he's a charlatan and a marketing maverick and filthy rich and an asshole and all that - electric cars used to be an environmentalist dream, and now they're desired by "almost everyone" at least among the early adopter class. My work colleagues who roll their eyes when I talk about AGW and GHGs are salivating at the thought of driving a Tesla.
It's not enough to save us (for that we need - just for the automobile sector - mass production, ultra-fast deployment, and clean renewable electricity already in place), but it's more than has happened in a long while.

jacksmith4tx

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 266
    • View Profile
    • Photon mine
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4694 on: July 20, 2018, 04:18:09 PM »
If we could get Vehicle-to-Grid technology deployed at the same time it would go a lot faster with less grid disruption. In fact, it HAS to happen before the EV can replace ICE.
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2969
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 317
  • Likes Given: 589
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4695 on: July 20, 2018, 04:50:25 PM »
I don't think V2G is a must. Some kind of storage is a must, but vehicle batteries are not the most suited to the task as they have different technical requirements, and in addition it requires a much more elaborate electrical scheme, rather than just a normal home plug for charging.
I do think some kind of charging management, that avoids charging at peak demand moments, could achieve a lot of the desired result with much less complexity and cost (translating to time-to-deploy) than V2G.

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3617
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 359
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4696 on: July 20, 2018, 05:04:37 PM »
Newton concludes, Tesla came out with an electric car that people really want to drive.[/b] It will always be remembered as the one that made electric cars truly desirable, and that’s why it is one of the greats.”
I think this is Elon Musk's greatest achievement - regardless of whether anyone thinks he's a charlatan and a marketing maverick and filthy rich and an asshole and all that - electric cars used to be an environmentalist dream, and now they're desired by "almost everyone" at least among the early adopter class.
50% of UK millenials who want a car want an electric car . Of perhaps more moment is that increasing numbers of young people (especially YOUNG MEN) don't want a car.

Not only that .....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44849381

Quote
Are young people going cool on cars?
In the 1990s, 80% of people were driving by 30; now this marker is only reached by 45.

Men under 30 are travelling only half the miles their fathers did.

The Commission on Travel Demand says this should lead to a government re-think about travel priorities.

It points out that people in general are driving much less than expected:

People are travelling 10% fewer miles than in 2002 and spending 22 hours less travelling each year than a decade ago.
There has been a 20% reduction in commuter trips per week since the mid 1990s
Growth in car traffic has slowed. In the 1980s, it grew by 50% whereas in the decade to 2016 it grew by 2%

Re: Cars, cars and more LESS cars. 
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4697 on: July 20, 2018, 10:43:20 PM »
Re #4732 above:  Dan Neil, of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ’s pro-business stance often makes it anti-environment and anti-Tesla):  so his positive review of the Model 3 apparently earned him the wrath of shorts on Twitter; his account, while not deleted, looks to be closed/blocked.  :-\

Tesla has announced that their Q2 earnings report and conference call are scheduled for August 1.  http://ir.tesla.com  

The FUD from shorts lately has been at a fever pitch.  Two of the most strident anti-Tesla Twitter accounts have been revealed to be: 1) a VW employee, and 2) a guy managing million$ in oil drilling investments.  Perhaps such folks are finally starting to accept that their lives are about to become very, very difficult?

Edit:
Out of control #Tesla short sellers harassed a well-respected journalist into deleting his Twitter account after wrote a positive review of the #Model3. They swamped WSJ's Dan Neil with hundreds of tweets in less than a day. $TSLA
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/short-sellers-drove-wsj-reviewer-dan-neil-to-deletion-of-his-twitter.123162/

https://twitter.com/alterviggo/status/1020481921816465409
« Last Edit: July 22, 2018, 02:50:32 AM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4698 on: July 21, 2018, 08:42:02 PM »
After the Munro Teardown findings confirmed that the Tesla Model 3 could be built extremely profitably, German carmakers are worried.

Teslas Model 3 ist hochprofitabel
Neue Zahlen bestätigen Albtraum von BMW und Daimler
https://www.focus.de/finanzen/boerse/profitabilitaet-von-ueber-30-prozent-bmws-und-daimlers-albtraum-ist-wahr-teslas-model-3-ist-hochprofitabel_id_9280195.html

From Google Translate:
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.focus.de%2Ffinanzen%2Fboerse%2Fprofitabilitaet-von-ueber-30-prozent-bmws-und-daimlers-albtraum-ist-wahr-teslas-model-3-ist-hochprofitabel_id_9280195.html

Quote
Now, above all, the German premium manufacturers, but also VW  (WKN: 766400), ask what they can learn from Tesla's high profitability. It seems Tesla is much better at making a car cheap and sleek than the established carmakers. These would have to turn many of their ways of thinking, processes and supply relationships completely upside down to be able to approach here.

BMW and Daimler, however, seem to be struggling to achieve their typical operating margins of about 9-10% with electric cars. Only in March, BMW decided to postpone the start of mass production of electric cars until 2020, because otherwise sufficient profitability could not be guaranteed. Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche has due to the lack of profitability in their planned electric models a profit drought by 2025 in view.

What makes the whole situation even worse is that initial estimates suggest very high prices for the upcoming electric models from BMW and Daimler.
If you want to get on well with the customer and then also achieve weak margins, your own business model has a real problem.



Edit:  this five-year-old tweet from “Volkswagon USA News” shows EVs are not a new idea for VW...

“Volkswagen Group considers 40 electric, #hybrid vehicles in green push via @Automotive_News (link: http://vwoa.us/13GC5Za) vwoa.us/13GC5Za #EV #IAA”
https://mobile.twitter.com/vwnews/status/377482289204043776
« Last Edit: July 21, 2018, 09:03:24 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13052
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4699 on: July 21, 2018, 09:31:12 PM »
Electric vehicle revolution is going to result in job loses, warns UAW as it tries to unionize Tesla
Quote
The Union of Auto Workers (UAW) has been trying to unionize electric vehicle production in the US for a while now. It first tried and failed with Nissan’s Smyrna factory, where they manufacture the Leaf, and they are now pursuing Tesla’s Fremont factory.

Now the UAW warns that electric vehicle revolution is going to result in job [losses].  Jennifer Kelly, UAW’s research director, made the comment when discussing auto import issues emerging through the building trade war.  She said that the rise of electric vehicles could be dire for American jobs (via Transport Topics):

“The workers who are making engines and transmissions today, their jobs will be eliminated when we make a transition to electric vehicles. We’re looking at a considerable net job loss just in that technological transition.”

UAW is taking this stance just a month after the German automotive labor union released a study claiming that at least 75,000 jobs could be lost as the industry switches to electric vehicles.  It has been a trend with auto labor unions. Hyundai’s union head sees it. Earlier this year, Hyundai’s union head said that ‘electric cars are disasters and evil.’
https://electrek.co/2018/07/20/electric-vehicle-revolution-job-loses-uaw-tesla/

Hyundai is indeed ramping production of the sought-after Kona EV:
Hyundai starts production of Kona Electric CUV, ships out first ~1,000 units
https://electrek.co/2018/07/20/hyundai-kona-electric-production/

While Tesla invests in education for future company employees:
Tesla announces first $1.5M investment in Nevada education – Las Vegas Review-Journal
https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/education/tesla-announces-first-1-5m-investment-in-nevada-education/

And is expanding delivery centers and hiring people to help with the after-effects of the successful production ramp, all while enabling a 5-minute “Sign and Drive” experience:
Tesla updates Model 3 order confirmation page to bolster 5-minute delivery process
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-order-confirmation-page-5-minute-delivery/

While the Tesla shorts insist that something must be terribly wrong because all those newly-produced Teslas are not instantly in their new owners’ hands:
Tesla is stocking ‘thousands’ of Model 3’s in parking lots, shorts are freaking out about it
https://electrek.co/2018/07/20/tesla-stocking-model-3-lots-tsla-shorts-freaking-out/
(The “parking lots” being discussed are owned by logistics companies, and are used by Tesla to move cars off the crowded Fremont lots, and stage them for local, and long-distance trucking, or rail, transportation.)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.