Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

[Sigmetnow]

And lest you think driverless cars will only be for the wealthy, Ford CEO Fields says: Our Driverless Cars Will Be Affordable.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/ford-ceo-fields-our-driverless-cars-will-be-affordable-tmBNbkOETtCNKyZgK4nv3w.html

[wili]

It will inevitably lead to more frequent car trips, so it is not really a step forward.

[jai mitchell]

unless they are electric

[wili]

??

But then it's their being electric that saved energy, not their being driverless.

What ever activity you make more convenient to do, that activity will likely happen more.

[Sigmetnow]

So, residential solar energy has to become very, very convenient.

[Sigmetnow]

What to look for in the next generation Nissan LEAF EV.
http://www.plugincars.com/five-critical-changes-next-nissan-leaf-130381.html

[Sigmetnow]

Feds Quietly Acknowledge the U.S. Driving Boom Is Over

After many years of aggressively and inaccurately claiming that Americans would likely begin a new era of rapid driving growth, the agency’s more recent forecast finally recognizes that the protracted post-World War II era has given way to a different paradigm.
...
For U.S. DOT to embrace a future less dominated by driving, it first must recognize when change has occurred and that a different trajectory is possible. Quiet and incremental as the current changes may be, they represent a profound step in the right direction.

http://usa.streetsblog.org/2015/01/07/the-feds-quietly-acknowledge-the-driving-boom-is-over/

[JimD]

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/01/subprime-spikes-auto-sales-delinquencies-soar-industry-total-denial-fallout-hit-main-street.html

What could go wrong?

New vehicle sales in the US have been on a tear in 2014, rising 5.6% to 16.5 million units, the highest since banner year 2006. Light-truck sales jumped 10%, cars edged up 1.8%. The industry is drunk with its own enthusiasm.

General Motors CEO Mary Barra sees “still plenty of room for the auto industry to grow.” She rattled off politically correct reasons: consumers who’re “feeling pretty good about the future,” due to “the strength of the labor market, better job security and the recovery in home prices,” topped off by the “sharp drop in fuel prices and rising incomes,” possibly confusing them with her rising income.

So sales could hit 17 million in 2015, she said in the statement. It would take the industry back to the car-glory days of 2001. It’s going to be younger buyers – the Holy Grail of everyone. They’re not just moving out of their parents’ homes, where they’ve been holed up for years because they can’t afford the soaring rents or home prices, but now they’re also going to splurge on a set of wheels. Because it’s a great time to buy.

Interest rates for six-year new-car loans are as low as 2.75%, according to Bankrate.com. Loan terms can be stretched to seven years, to where these younger buyers will be awfully close to middle-age before they finally get out from under it. Loan-to-Value ratios have soared well past 100%; everything can be plowed into the loan: title, taxes, license fees, cash-back, and the amount buyers are upside-down in their trade. The package is governed by loosey-goosey lending standards. Bad credit, no problem.

And that’s exactly the problem.

Over 8.4% of subprime auto loans taken out in the first quarter of 2014 were already delinquent by November, according to an analysis of Equifax data by Moody’s Analytics for the Wall Street Journal. That’s the highest rate of early subprime delinquencies since Financial-Crisis year 2008.

Stuffing people into cars they can’t afford and ultimately may not be able to pay for is big business. Auto loans to subprime borrowers (credit scores below 640) make up over 31% of all auto loans, according to Equifax. Outstanding loan balances have soared nearly 17% over the last two years. At this rate, they’ll breach the $1-trillion mark by the end of the first quarter this year.

In broader terms, 2.6% of the auto loans taken out in Q1 2014 were delinquent by November, the highest rate of early delinquencies since crisis-year 2008, when they rose above 3%.

The bailed-out former auto lending unit of bailed out GM, Ally Financial, now the largest non-captive auto lender, reported $355 million in nonperforming auto loans in Q3 2014, up 8% from a year earlier. And during the first three quarters, it charged off as uncollectible $341 million, up 18% from the prior year.

Santander, one of the top 15 auto lenders in the US, discovered that it’s overall auto-loan delinquency rate in Q3 was a vertigo-inducing 16.7%, highest in the nation, followed by Capital One’s delinquency rate of 6.6%.

But there’s nothing to worry about.........

[Sigmetnow]

General Motors (!):  $30,000 battery-powered family car with 200-mile range, to be called the Chevrolet Bolt.  Sometime in 2017.

GM has invested millions in developing electric cars starting with the EV1 in the 1990s. It doubled the size of its battery testing lab at a technical center in suburban Warren, Michigan, to 100,000 square feet in 2013, allowing it to test batteries and controls faster. It took about four years for GM to develop the Volt and bring it to market.

http://m.theepochtimes.com/n3/1189678-chevrolet-bolt-gm-plans-affordable-200-mile-electric-car-in-2017/

(If gas prices stay low, more people will have more money, and consumer sentiment will be positive, propelling more spending on new cars with new technology.  If gas prices rise, people tired of the gas price game will take a closer look at alternatives. Plus: it's GM!)

[JimD]

(If gas prices stay low, more people will have more money, and consumer sentiment will be positive, propelling more spending on new cars with new technology.  If gas prices rise, people tired of the gas price game will take a closer look at alternatives. Plus: it's GM!)

Hmm.  Gas prices have been down for less than 2 months and we have seen a 10+% jump in gas guzzeling pickups and big suv's.  Just the increased number of those vehicles exceeds the total number of all ev's sold in the US over the entire year by several times.  And given that each one of those vehicles has a carbon footprint at least a few times higher than an ev we have lost significant ground (by the standards you are counting from).  The longer gas prices stay down the more the above effect will permeate. 

High gas prices are good for ev sales not low gas prices.

And I throw in my usual point.  EV's are not the answer to the car problem.  Getting rid of cars is the answer to the car problem.  EV's just extend BAU.

[Laurent]

Why Tesla Stock Is Plummeting Right Now
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/14/tesla-stock_n_6471698.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green

[Sigmetnow]

Great press Q&A with Elon Musk on the future of Tesla and electric cars.  (He expects profitability around 2020, given the economies of scale with the mass-marketed Tesla.)
Lots of great quotes, like:  I don't care if they say we will fail.  We're still going to do it.

On autonomous cars:  We don't want two-ton death-bots roaming the streets.

http://chargedevs.com/newswire/video-mister-musk-goes-to-detroit-presses-automakers-to-get-serious-about-evs//

[Sigmetnow]

"Former GM Exec Bob Lutz Insists That Electrification Is The Future"

(But, really, he needs to talk to Elon Musk about batteries.  Elon says he will share....)

http://gmauthority.com/blog/2015/01/former-gm-exec-bob-lutz-insists-that-electrification-is-the-future/

[Sigmetnow]

Nissan LEAF sales in Europe jumped 33% in 2014.  Over 56,000 electric vehicles (EVs) were purchased there last year.

"We can now see the impact that word of mouth is having on our sales, with 95 per cent of our customers happy to recommend their car to a friend and 50 per cent saying they would never go back to diesel or petrol," said Nissan Europe senior vice president of sales and marketing Guillaume Cartier, in a statement. "This kind of powerful advocacy, combined with an increasing awareness of the massive running cost savings electric car drivers experience, is why our Nissan Leaf sales continue to grow."

http://m.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2390949/nissan-leaf-enjoys-33-per-cent-european-sales-boost

[Clare]

I certainly agree with this!
""Hmm.  Gas prices have been down for less than 2 months and we have seen a 10+% jump in gas guzzeling pickups and big suv's.  Just the increased number of those vehicles exceeds the total number of all ev's sold in the US over the entire year by several times.  And given that each one of those vehicles has a carbon footprint at least a few times higher than an ev we have lost significant ground (by the standards you are counting from).  The longer gas prices stay down the more the above effect will permeate. 

High gas prices are good for ev sales not low gas prices.

And I throw in my usual point.  EV's are not the answer to the car problem.  Getting rid of cars is the answer to the car problem.  EV's just extend BAU.""
[/quote]


But just some thoughts on cars, oil etc:
My half brother sent me a copy of this (it is from May last year), these look like v large stockpiles to me!:
http://www.vincelewis.net/unsoldcars.html

Maybe there is a benefit to the environment of a LOW price for oil?? I never thought this might be possible tho' in my neighbourhood Tag oil have deferred their testing & hopefully the oil company planning seismic testing due to be done at the edge of town (we are riddled with faultlines here, have enough quakes as it is! = Napier NZ). So that is a relief, will buy 'us' some time.... or maybe people will just use more now? :-(
http://www.greenpeace.org/new-zealand/en/blog/deepwater-drilling-in-new-zealand-in-deep-tro/blog/51865/

[Sigmetnow]

Energy Department Announces $55 Million In Grants For Fuel-Efficient plug-in electric and fuel-powered Car Research

Low gas prices helped boost SUV sales in December, but these low prices also make it a good time to buy an electric car.

“Fuel savings are not top of mind to many consumers right now, and that makes this a great time to buy a hybrid or electric vehicle,” John Krafcik, president of TrueCar, said in a statement. “With gasoline prices now averaging just $2.10 per gallon, and vehicle preferences tied so closely to short-term gasoline prices, automakers are heavily discounting their most fuel-efficient cars to clear inventories.”

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/23/3614792/energy-dept-efficient-car-grants/

[Sigmetnow]

A multiple-EV owner believes he knows why EVs will succeed:

The one thing I keep circling back to when people ask whether or not electric vehicles will have staying power or if they are only passing fad is the owner loyalty. The vast majority of electric vehicle owners love their cars and vow to never go back to gas. People love driving electric because it’s better. That’s the real reason EVs are here to stay. It isn’t the governmental incentives, the fact that they are cleaner, or are cheaper to operate. The real reason EVs will win in the long run is that they offer a better driving experience. People love driving them, it’s really that simple. The high cost of batteries, the need for a robust fast charge infrastructure and the inertia of the status quo are all just temporary obstacles that will be solved in the coming years.

http://insideevs.com/157000-electric-miles-driven-look-back-forward-future/

[Sigmetnow]

This is why EVs will ultimately succeed.  Not because of tree-huggers or climate change, and despite the (temporary) price premium, and low gas prices, and limited fast-charging infrastructure.

[Sigmetnow]

In 2014, One Out Of Every 8 Cars Registered In Norway Was All-Electric (18,017 Total)
http://insideevs.com/in-2014-one-out-of-every-8-cars-registered-in-norway-was-all-electric-18017-total/

[Sigmetnow]

More on the Paris ban of diesel trucks and buses.

Homeowners’ co-operatives that exist in almost every Parisian apartment block will also be encouraged to invest in electric car-charging points and secure bike shelters.

http://m.france24.com/en/20150128-paris-ban-most-polluting-diesel-vehicles-july-2015/

[Sigmetnow]

Mayor Boris Johnson gives go-ahead for 'Crossrail' cycle superhighway through central London

Mr Johnson was keen to reallocate space on central London roads in response to their changing use - the amount of vehicle traffic has fallen by 25 per cent in the last decade while the number of cyclists has doubled. Cyclists now account for a quarter of all traffic in central London in the morning rush hour.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/boris-johnson-gives-goahead-for-crossrail-cycle-superhighway-through-central-london-10004550.html

[Sigmetnow]

The Tesla battery gigafactory being built in Nevada: Powered by renewable energy.  Net zero energy factory.
But what about water?

http://chargedevs.com/newswire/tesla-gigafactory-water-worries/


(If you are interested in EVs:  ChargedEVs.com and their Facebook page "CHARGED Electric Vehicles Magazine" are chock full of good stuff.  Also Twitter: @ChargedEVs. )

[Sigmetnow]

... And ships.

Oops:

China’s seaborne coal imports slid 10 percent in 2014, reversing growth of 16 percent the year before, according to Clarkson Plc, the world’s largest shipbroker. The Chinese economy, which buys almost half the world’s coal and ore cargoes, will grow in 2015 at the slowest pace in 25 years, economists’ forecasts compiled by Bloomberg show.
...
Ship owners ordered three-times more dry bulk ships in 2013 than a year earlier in expectation of growing coal demand in China, according to Jeffrey Landsberg, managing director of Commodore Research, a New York-based adviser to ship owners. Those vessels are now being delivered to the market and competing for cargoes, driving rates down.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/shipping-index-matches-record-low-as-coal-slump-heightens-glut

[Sigmetnow]

California utility PG&E to build 25,000 Public EV charging stations.
http://www.plugincars.com/pge-will-build-and-own-25000-ev-chargers-130503.html

[Sigmetnow]

Posting this new book review for those who may be interested.  "Clean Disruption" by Tony Seba.

Seba’s thesis is that several technological trends – renewable energy, energy storage, EVs and autonomous vehicles – are converging and reinforcing one another, which will lead to the disruption of the existing oil and electric utility industries. We’ll make the transition to clean energy not because it’s the right thing to do, or because Big Brother forces us to, but rather for the same reasons we went from sail to steam, from horses to internal combustion – because the new technology is better, and – eventually – much, much cheaper.

And get this: it will all be over by 2030. Yes, that one made me shake my head at first, but after reading about the case studies Mr Seba presents, and the parallels he draws with earlier technological shifts, I’m a hopeful believer.

http://chargedevs.com/newswire/new-book-predicts-the-demise-of-the-oil-economy-by-2030/

[Sigmetnow]

Growing pains for London's EV charging infrastructure.
http://chargedevs.com/newswire/london-charging-network-in-a-muddle-as-stakeholders-squabble/

[Sigmetnow]

...and buses! Electric buses are being funded for ten US cities.  Many are replacing diesel models.
http://chargedevs.com/newswire/30-million-in-federal-grants-to-pay-for-proterra-electric-buses/

[Sigmetnow]

Why would you do that?

Sorry, hydrogen fans.  "Elon Musk Is Right: Hydrogen Is ‘An Incredibly Dumb’ Car Fuel."
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/12/3621136/tesla-elon-musk-hydrogen-dumb/

[Sigmetnow]

iCar?  Apple Is Working on an Electric Car, WSJ Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-14/apple-working-on-electric-car-to-challenge-tesla-wsj-reports

[Sigmetnow]

EV-charging etiquette.  Don't hog the charging spots, and never unplug a car without permission.
http://www.electriccarpledge.com/electric-vehicle-charging-hang-tags

[JimD]

This is very telling.

Is There an Auto Bubble?
7 FEB 13, 2015 2:24 PM EST
By Mark Whitehouse
For all the progress the U.S. economy has been making, a nagging question comes up from time to time: Might the growth be a bit too dependent on credit-fueled auto sales?

, that auto lending has been rising most sharply in the same U.S. zip codes that experienced the highest default rates during the mortgage bust -- and that the lending appears to be having as powerful an effect on auto sales as mortgage credit did on appliances, furniture and home improvement before the 2008 recession.

So how big of a deal might this be? The latest retail sales data from the Census Bureau offer a clue: As of January, automobiles and other motor vehicles accounted for 20.5 percent of total retail sales.

Maybe this does not have the dire indications that the housing bubble had but it sure shows how weak the economy really is. 

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-13/is-there-an-auto-bubble-

[Sigmetnow]

Japan now has more car chargers then gas stations.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-13/japan-has-more-car-chargers-than-gas-stations-carbon-climate

Plugshare.com lists chargers in private homes of people willing to share.

[Sigmetnow]

How Many Electric Cars Do We Need to Save the Planet?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gina-coplonnewfield/how-many-electric-cars-do_b_6707170.html

[Sigmetnow]

Apple Inc., which has been working secretly on a car, is pushing its team to begin production of an electric vehicle as early as 2020, people with knowledge of the matter said.

The timeframe -- automakers typically spend five to seven years developing a car -- underscores the project’s aggressive goals and could set the stage for a battle for customers with Tesla Motors Inc. and General Motors Co., both of which are targeting a 2017 release of an electric vehicle that can go more than 200 miles on a single charge and cost less than $40,000.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-19/apple-said-to-be-targeting-car-production-as-soon-as-2020

[Sigmetnow]

Ethiopia is building a train system to be run on renewables, including community planning and assessing vulnerability to climate change.
http://namanews.org/news/2015/02/18/its-full-steam-ahead-for-ethiopian-railways-corporation/

[Sigmetnow]

Utilities push into fuel stations for electric cars.

Utilities could benefit not only from increased electricity sales but also by investing in building the underlying infrastructure, on which they earn a set return recovered through customer rates. In addition to that, executives said, passenger cars sucking up power at public stations during the day could absorb excess electricity flowing from the solar farms that are increasingly coming online.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/20/business/utilities-push-into-fuel-stations-for-electric-cars.html

[Sigmetnow]

Formula E electric race car circuit: "showcase the power of electric vehicles and spread awareness about sustainability."
http://www.theclimategroup.org/what-we-do/news-and-blogs/london-to-host-two-final-races-of-formula-e-debut-championship/

[Sigmetnow]

Here's a good one:
Exxon Mobil Entering The EV Charging Game

http://carswithcords.blogspot.com/2015/02/exxon-mobil-entering-ev-charging-game.html

[Sigmetnow]

... and planes:
The U.S. Just Got One Step Closer To Regulating Airplane Carbon Emissions.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/03/3629070/airplane-regulations-clearing-for-takeoff/

[Sigmetnow]

... and solar planes.

Si-2 will fly day and night, and land in 12 locations across the world in its five-month-long journey to promote renewable energy. They will travel 35,000 kilometres in the first attempt to fly around the globe without using a drop of fuel.
...
Si2 has used many innovative technologies that can improve people’s lives in many sectors. The technology used for building the cockpit can triple the capacity of refrigerators. Lighting of the flight is the most energy-efficient technology.

http://gulfnews.com/life-style/environment/first-global-solar-flight-plans-to-take-off-on-saturday-1.1465379

[Sigmetnow]

The UK government has announced £32 million ($49 million) in new funding for EV infrastructure, to support “the fast-growing popularity of plug-in vehicles.” The announcement noted that claims for government grants to plug-in buyers increased fourfold in 2014.
...
An additional £11 million of funding has been announced for R&D in low-emission vehicle technology. The 15 supported projects include: the creation of a new recycled carbon fiber material; development of a fuel cell range-extended electric bus; and a prototype zero-emission power and cooling system for refrigerated trucks and air-conditioned buses.

http://chargedevs.com/newswire/uk-government-to-invest-32-million-in-ev-infrastructure-11-million-in-rd/

[Sigmetnow]

Lots of plug-in cars at the Geneva car show.

Also in the “interesting” category: a concept tire from Goodyear that’s designed to use heat generated while driving to recharge an EV’s battery. “This tire generates electricity through the action of materials in the tire that capture and transform the energy created by heat when it flexes as it rolls during normal driving conditions.”

http://chargedevs.com/newswire/the-vehicles/a-plethora-of-plug-ins-at-the-geneva-auto-salon/

[Sigmetnow]

Use of Solar Powered Electric Vehicle Charging Stations at San Diego Zoo on the Rise
http://cleantechsandiego.org/use-solar-powered-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-san-diego-zoo-rise/

[Sigmetnow]

The first solar-powered flight around the world just took off.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/09/3631327/solar-powered-airplane-flying-around-the-world/

[Sigmetnow]

Soon, autonomous vehicles will reduce the need for multiple (family) cars.

Without the need for a human at the helm, one autonomous vehicle could take the place of two conventional vehicles: If Joan is going golfing and Joe needs to go shopping, a single car could drop Joan off at the club, swing back to the house to take Joe to the supermarket and back, then return to the club and get Joan.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/09/self_driving_cars_will_revolutionize_economy_mckinsey_company_report_shows.html

[Bob Wallace]

Some pictures of the Mercedes self-driving car in the SF area.

It may or may not have been driving itself a bit.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/09/mercedes-driverless-car-san-francisco_n_6833248.html

[Sigmetnow]

So far, so good.
Short video at the bottom of the article has some nice shots of the plane's exterior.

After a Quick 'Pit Stop,' Solar Impulse Plane Moves On to India
http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/innovation/after-pit-stop-solar-impulse-plane-moves-india-n320436

[Sigmetnow]

Study shows an electric car boom in the UK would have significant benefits.  But most drivers are not ready to take the plunge just yet.

Electric cars could cut the UK’s oil imports by 40% and reduce drivers’ fuel bills by £13bn if deployed on a large scale, according to a new study.

An electric vehicle surge would deliver an average £1,000 of fuel savings a year per driver, and spark a 47% drop in carbon emissions by 2030, said the Cambridge Econometrics study.

The paper, commissioned by the European Climate Foundation, said that air pollutants such as nitrogen oxide and particulates would be all but eliminated by mid-century, with knock-on health benefits from reduced respiratory diseases valued at over £1bn.

But....

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/10/electric-cars-could-cut-oil-imports-40-by-2030

[Sigmetnow]

Another method to increase electric car range. 

http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/09/autos/goodyear-electric-tires/index.html

[Sigmetnow]

Helping expand EV access to another population segment: apartment dwellers.

eVgo is currently offering charging station installation at no cost to qualified apartment communities in California.

http://chargedevs.com/newswire/nrg-evgo-launches-program-to-help-renters-charge-evs/