Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....  (Read 1471997 times)

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #400 on: August 03, 2015, 09:36:19 PM »
My 2 closest neighbors are all well into their 70's.  In the last 3 months they have bought 4 new cars.  An SUV, a pickup, a sports car and a big Buick.  Before that they had 3 compact cars (1 Prius) and a pickup - none of which were older than about 4-5 years.  One of them owns 2 Porsche's also.  Don't tell Neven they live in 4000+ sq ft houses also.  This town is just flooded with used cars no one wants.

And it is not just cars/trucks.  The ATV dealer just down the road has those suckers rolling off the lot.  Some cost $25,000.  Course here in AZ it is legal to drive your ATV or 4-wheeler on the highways.  Kind of goes with no permit needed to carry concealed I think....
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9470
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1333
  • Likes Given: 617
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #401 on: August 03, 2015, 09:51:10 PM »
Don't tell Neven they live in 4000+ sq ft houses also.

Yeah, don't tell me that. I hate it.  ;D
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #402 on: August 03, 2015, 09:57:35 PM »
EV point of data.

I mentioned last year that the low fuel prices were going to have a big impact on sales of ICE vehicles and that that surge in sales would more than overwhelm all the sales of EV's in the US.  Naturally I got some kick back on that by the fan club.  We see the effect of what I was talking about in the record level sales of ICE vehicles.  But it is worse than that.....

Sales of EV's in the US are down year on year 2015 vs 2014.  So they are not even rising right now.  And on top of that the top selling EV is the Tesla Model S - the Porsche of EV's.

Strip Tesla sales out of EV sales (as one should since counting them is like counting a Porsche as a compact car) and the year on year decline in EV sales in the US is 12.5%. 

If crude prices stay down for another year or two (a distinct possibility) we will  continue to see flat to declining sales of EV's.  As I have stated before when those ICE vehicles are purchased they bring a resource and emissions tail with them which lasts for at least a decade.

But the 'bottom line' in any case is that EV's are not the answer.  NO cars is the answer.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #403 on: August 04, 2015, 12:56:18 AM »
Jim
I think low crude prices will be with us for some time. In the mid 80's over production of oil was used successfully to break the USSR. I think the same tactic is being utilized, but this time Canada and fracking operators are being hurt more than the intended target.
The Russian populace seems more than ready to stand with Putin & the Saudi's seem delighted to be eliminating their high priced competition.
Fuel prices don't seem to be following crude too closely & this may have more to do with the acceptance of EVs. The drop in the purchasing power of the Canadian dollar will slow the sales of all big ticket items on this side of the border and the loss of thousands of highly paid tar sands jobs will be a godsent to repo operators as they impound the worst gas and diesel hogs.
While low crude prices may discourage EV acceptance, they at least keep the tar sands from expanding.
Terry

ghoti

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 767
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #404 on: August 04, 2015, 03:35:23 AM »
The 3 biggest EV sellers include 2 which are at the end of model cycle (the 3rd is Tesla). The EV market is very limited and potential buyers are extremely aware of the options. Almost nobody is interested in buying the old version when a much better model will be available soon.

If there were lots of models from lots of manufacturers we wouldn't see the this effect. Looks like it is going to be quite a while before there's lots of choice in North America. Europe has many new models coming soon but they don't meet the North America safety standards to the letter of the law so they won't be shipped here.

Likely we'll see growth in sales when the 2016 Volt hits the market and even bigger when the new Leaf, Bolt, Sonic, Prius, and Model 3 start selling.

At this point EVs seem like computers used to be - you knew as soon as you bought one it would be obsolete. The EV advances are dramatic so it shouldn't be too long before even an obsolete one makes a decent vehicle.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #405 on: August 04, 2015, 02:44:41 PM »
Quote
My 2 closest neighbors are all well into their 70's.  In the last 3 months they have bought 4 new cars.  An SUV, a pickup, a sports car and a big Buick.  Before that they had 3 compact cars (1 Prius) and a pickup - none of which were older than about 4-5 years.  One of them owns 2 Porsche's also....

Quote
Sales of EV's in the US are down year on year 2015 vs 2014.  So they are not even rising right now.  And on top of that the top selling EV is the Tesla Model S - the Porsche of EV's.

Strip Tesla sales out of EV sales (as one should since counting them is like counting a Porsche as a compact car) and the year on year decline in EV sales in the US is 12.5%.


Hardly seems kosher to talk about ICE owners with 4 new cars and 4,000 sq ft homes, then strip out Tesla from EV sales.  (See: "Model S - $575 /mo after gas savings" per http://www.teslamotors.com .)  Particularly since the low-cost, high volume EV's are due in 2017.  Everybody knows that.

Anyway, here are the actual stats for the U.S.:
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/


I, too, can cherry-pick:  :P

Quote
The U.S. led sales of all global electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, selling more than 14,500 of them in the first quarter of 2015. The Tesla Model S was the most popular electric model sold.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/07/08/us-leads-world-in-hybrid-market/29866107/


Quote
Global EV stock has surged, rising from about 180,000 electric cars on the road in late 2012 to 665,000 on the road at the end of 2014. The three EVI countries with the highest percentage of global EV stock include the United States (39%), Japan (16%), and China (12%). Vehicle electrification has also gone multimodal, with 46,000 electric buses and 235 million electric two-wheelers deployed by the end of 2014. China is a standout for this multimodal evolution, with 230 million e-bikes, 83,000 electric cars, and 36,500 e-buses on the road in 2014.

http://www.greentechmedia.com/industry/read/evi-releases-the-global-ev-outlook-2015-355910
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #406 on: August 04, 2015, 05:31:29 PM »
EV point of data.

I mentioned last year that the low fuel prices were going to have a big impact on sales of ICE vehicles and that that surge in sales would more than overwhelm all the sales of EV's in the US.  Naturally I got some kick back on that by the fan club.  We see the effect of what I was talking about in the record level sales of ICE vehicles.  But it is worse than that.....

Sales of EV's in the US are down year on year 2015 vs 2014.  So they are not even rising right now.  And on top of that the top selling EV is the Tesla Model S - the Porsche of EV's.

Strip Tesla sales out of EV sales (as one should since counting them is like counting a Porsche as a compact car) and the year on year decline in EV sales in the US is 12.5%. 

If crude prices stay down for another year or two (a distinct possibility) we will  continue to see flat to declining sales of EV's.  As I have stated before when those ICE vehicles are purchased they bring a resource and emissions tail with them which lasts for at least a decade.

But the 'bottom line' in any case is that EV's are not the answer.  NO cars is the answer.

Maybe NO cars could be achieved by switching to electric bikes and scooters, at least it works in high-density areas. I think these have a much smaller footprint overall, and I know of quite a few people that have switched from cars (or avoided buying cars) thanks to such vehicles.

ralfy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 143
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 80
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #407 on: August 04, 2015, 06:38:42 PM »
Peak oil, supply issues for other material resources, the size of the potential global middle class, environmental damage, and more may have an effect on car production, and on manufacturing in general.

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #408 on: August 04, 2015, 09:55:04 PM »
Sigmetnow

I provide analysis (as in no reasonable person counts a Tesla as an improvement over my Chevy Cruze).  Which you seem incapable of doing about 99% of the time.  You  wave your pom poms and cheer for your team. 

I don't cheer for anyone as they all lie and they all are for BAU.  Just like you are.

Go ahead and get all gushy over some less than important issue or technology as that is what you seem to do.  I long ago gave up on folks who think like you do as I don't see you as meaningfully different from the folks you pretend you oppose.

We have real problems and that seems to intimidate most.  I can't help you on that as it is on you to eventually understand it.  All the facts are there you just have to take your blinders off.

I suggest you read posts like  mine about 3 times before you comment as almost always you are sticking your foot in your mouth - as you did this time.  Your reading comprehension is weak. 

Sales are less in the US than last year thru June.  Here is the link do the math.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #409 on: August 04, 2015, 10:08:56 PM »
Maybe NO cars could be achieved by switching to electric bikes and scooters, at least it works in high-density areas. I think these have a much smaller footprint overall, and I know of quite a few people that have switched from cars (or avoided buying cars) thanks to such vehicles.

High density areas are amenable to many kinds of improvements.

But most of America is functionally suburban or rural.  Ev's don't help there because they contribute to perpetuating a much bigger problem.  Those horrible 4000 sq ft houses, big yards, riding lawn mowers, 3 car garages, and all that crap.  Most Americans live in places where driving is absolutely required in order to live ones daily life be it commuting, getting food, school issues and such.  Rather than wasting resources on ev's that help support that horrific infrastructure we should be dismantling it.  If you don't live on a farm growing food you should live in a dense urban environment.  All new housing should not just be efficient it should be multi-occupancy and nestled next to mass transit and walkable shopping for basic goods.  Car free.  Most of the housing infrastructure in the US needs to be torn down and recycled.  Thus the point about my neighbors who not only are buying stupid vehicles but living like they are kings of old.  Not only that one of those neighbors lives in that house by himself (he is the one with 4 cars naturally).  In case I am being too subtle ... I hold their kind of lifestyle in contempt.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

sidd

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6774
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1047
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #410 on: August 05, 2015, 01:15:03 AM »
Everything in the post numbered 408 on August 4th, 2015, 09:55:04 except the first sentence and last two would more properly belong in email.

In the link provided, the very first sentence after the table of figures attributes the reason for the decline in US sales thru june between last year and this year from 67+ K to 63+ K to (as pointed out by Mr. Ghoti earlier)

" ... the anticipation for 3 new offerings in September is crushing sales dreams this month."

We see no decline in worldwide sales thru june: an increas this year to 200+K from 123+K last year. Not bad.

sidd
« Last Edit: August 05, 2015, 06:31:15 AM by sidd »

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #411 on: August 05, 2015, 02:31:05 AM »
JimD
The first time I was through your area was about 50 years ago. At that time some of the native population were living in wattle & mud hogans with no power or water and did their cooking in a bee hive oven behind the hogan.
They might have felt that your home was as wasteful of resources as you apparently feel your 4,000 sq ft neighbors are.
The point is that few of us living in 1st world luxury can claim to be part of the solution.
Terry

Zythryn

  • New ice
  • Posts: 81
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #412 on: August 05, 2015, 02:08:49 PM »
...
Sales are less in the US than last year thru June.  Here is the link do the math.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

No one is arguing that point.
The disagreement comes in your claim that low gas prices are hurting EV sales.
Most owners I know bought the car because they are simply better cars for their needs.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #413 on: August 05, 2015, 07:19:15 PM »
Hey, JimD @408.

Your analysis is faulty.  Please test your own reading comprehension, and show where I wrote EV sales are not less than last year.  Then apologize for your rant and personal attack on me.  Go ahead.  I'll wait.

Deleting significant sales numbers of the best car, of any type, ever tested by Consumer Reports -- for 2014 and 2015, and the Best Safety Rating of Any Car Ever Tested by the NHTSA to try to make the argument that EV's are not going to succeed is a laughable cherry pick!  But arguing that a Tesla is no improvement over a Chevy Cruz is a simply a masterpiece of denial.  Unless you are about to be run over by one....  But even then, the Tesla's safety features would probably prevent it.*  Would your Cruz?


*If the system determines that a collision cannot be avoided by braking alone and there is sufficient room for avoidance, steer assist is activated to steer the vehicle away from the pedestrian.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #414 on: August 05, 2015, 07:35:12 PM »
Qualcomm enters the wireless EV charging business.

BRUSA licenses Qualcomm Halo wireless charging tech
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/brusa-licenses-qualcomm-halo-wireless-charging-tech/

Qualcomm and BRUSA Sign Commercial Wireless Electric Vehicle Charging License Agreement
https://www.qualcomm.com/news/releases/2015/07/29/qualcomm-and-brusa-sign-commercial-wireless-electric-vehicle-charging
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #415 on: August 05, 2015, 09:00:10 PM »
Sigmetnow

Whether one keeps the Teslas in or takes them out the sales thru June are less than 2014.  The point about taking the Teslas out is that they are a luxury sports car.  By definition there is no luxury car which helps solve any kind of problem except going fast.  Consumer reports exists to help consumers consume and for no other reason.  Who gives a crap what they say?  Leaving Teslas out demonstrates more realistic numbers.  For anyone to suggest that having extremely low gas prices does not have an effect on sales of ev's all I can say is that has no meaningful logic in it.  Say 40,000 people fit the claim that some are waiting for new models.  Near 17 million cars are going to be sold in the US this year.  About 100,000 will be ev's.  I think we can agree that that is not a number which has any significance.  Just the surge in sales of ice vehicles in the US since gas has dropped exceeds the total number of ev's on the road world wide by a significant amount.  ev's are not gaining ground.  Even the most optimistic estimate for replacing the ice fleet with ev's could not come up with a date earlier than 2030 and more likely 2040.  Either date is far too late.

This foolish fixation with EV's only happens because those enamored with the technology are not really trying to address the core problem.  It is greenwash of the highest order.  Trying to replace ice vehicles with ev's is window dressing.  It makes no difference if it does not help fix the problems and it doesn't.

What having cars and/or ev's does is help maintain for a longer period of time the hugely inappropriate rural/suburban infrastructure.  It is a way of prolonging a lifestyle which absolutely must go away if there is going to be any chance what-so-ever to maintain some semblance of civilization.

Once again the core problems which have to be solved simultaneously are very excessive population levels, wildly exceeding global carrying capacity and mitigating/adapting to climate change.  Your ev's help with none of these issues therefore they are not only not important emphasizing them makes things worse.

That is the filter which must govern all things going forward if we are to have any chance at all.  I occasionally lose my temper over folks being incapable of keeping their focus on what really matters.  That people are consistently incapable of this is easily explained by keeping in mind the limits of human nature.  But it always pisses me off and sometimes I just want to hit them in the head with a 2X4.  So no apology because as far as I am concerned you had it coming.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #416 on: August 06, 2015, 02:59:40 PM »
I feel so sorry for you.  Mental illness is a heart-breaking condition.  I urge you to seek help.

Good-bye.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #417 on: August 06, 2015, 03:01:28 PM »
An oil field worker is bringing electric cars to the heart of U.S. oil country.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1099426_oil-hauler-brings-electric-cars-to-heart-of-oklahoma-oil-country
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #418 on: August 06, 2015, 03:03:55 PM »
Quote
@elonmusk: Almost ready to release highway autosteer and parallel autopark software update

@elonmusk: The car will learn over time, but there is a min caliber of starting quality.

@CatherineMotuz: @elonmusk But will one car learn from other cars?

@elonmusk: @CatherineMotuz yes


@alipoursamar: @elonmusk would it be international? UK?

@elonmusk: @alipoursamar all regions


@elonmusk: Final corner case is dealing with low contrast lane markings (faded white on grey concrete) while driving into the sun at dusk

@tallakt: @elonmusk how about a lcd screen in front of the camera to mask away the sun?

@elonmusk: @tallakt Various forms of shades are being considered. May not be necessary though.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/627040381729906688
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #419 on: August 06, 2015, 03:06:51 PM »
Tesla Falls on Sales Target Cut to as Few as 50,000 Vehicles
Quote
Tesla said it now aims to deliver 50,000 to 55,000 vehicles this year, compared with a previous target of 55,000.
...
Reaching the initial target may be a stretch because some interior suppliers might not be able to increase the flow of high-quality parts fast enough to meet the Model X production plan, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said on a conference call with analysts. Because the SUV and the existing Model S share the same assembly line, a shortfall by one Model X supplier could slow output of both vehicles.

“The pace of progress is really dependent on which supplier is the slowest and least lucky,” Musk said on the call. “It’s a complex product, with thousands of suppliers.”

Some analysts had been skeptical about Tesla’s plans to increase deliveries by 74 percent this year, especially with so much of the increase coming late in the year.

Musk insisted that the SUV will be worth the wait.

“The Model X is a particularly challenging car to build, maybe the hardest car to build in the world,” he said. “But it is an amazing vehicle and I think it will blow people away.”

The company said it still expects to begin delivering the SUVs in late September and that final testing is “going well.” But even a one-week delay could reduce output by 800 vehicles, Tesla said.

“Simply put, in a choice between a great product or hitting quarterly numbers, we will take the former,” Musk and Chief Financial Officer Deepak Ahuja said in a letter to shareholders, posted on the company’s website. “To build long-term value, our first priority always has been, and still is, to deliver great cars.”
...
“We have been producing release candidate Model X bodies in our new body shop equipped with more than 500 robots as we fine-tune and validate our production processes,” Tesla said in the letter.

As production of the SUV increases, the company will become free cash-flow positive, probably near the end of this year and “certainly” for the first quarter of 2016, Ahuja said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-05/tesla-falls-after-lowering-sales-goal-to-as-few-as-50-000-autos
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #420 on: August 06, 2015, 03:09:23 PM »
Nevada Electric Vehicle Peograms and Resources
Quote
The State of Nevada recognizes that electric vehicles (EVs) and Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs) will play a key role in the State's transportation future, by offering a lower-cost fueling option for drivers and being more environmentally friendly. This site highlights some of the initiatives Nevada is taking to promote EV and AFV use in the State.
http://energy.nv.gov/Programs/Nevada_Electric_Vehicle_Programs_and_Resources/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #421 on: August 06, 2015, 07:01:44 PM »
Yikes!  Wireless charging can't come soon enough.   ;D

Tesla reveals prototype of snakelike automatic charger
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/tesla-reveals-a-prototype-of-snakelike-automatic-charger/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9470
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1333
  • Likes Given: 617
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #422 on: August 06, 2015, 09:45:28 PM »
Tesla SUV?  ??? :-\

So, when are they going to build a useful car for minimalists such as I? Will they ever?
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #423 on: August 07, 2015, 02:09:20 PM »
Tesla SUV?  ??? :-\

So, when are they going to build a useful car for minimalists such as I? Will they ever?

Despair not.  As production volumes increase, costs go down and smaller cars make economic sense to produce.  Few folks would spend over $100k on a tiny car, even if it were a Tesla.

The $30k-range Model 3, due in 2017, will be a sedan -- smaller than the Model S, which is a pretty big car.  (Elon wanted to call it the Model E, to go with the Models S and X, but it Ford claimed rights to that name.)  Elon has said most of the bells and whistles of bigger Teslas will be available for the Model 3, but probably not as standard equipment.

I haven't seen much about Tesla plans after the Model 3.  Maybe a light truck?  But stay tuned.


This is from 2014:
http://www.triplepundit.com/2014/07/elon-musk-lays-future-plans-tesla/

Tesla embraces the masses with $35,000 Model 3
http://www.techtimes.com/articles/10635/20140719/tesla-embraces-the-masses-with-35-000-model-3.htm

Edited for clarity and to add second link, re name change.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2015, 08:31:52 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #424 on: August 08, 2015, 10:30:31 PM »
Imagine thousands, or hundreds of thousands, of autonomous drones delivering physical packages (food?) the way the internet delivers information today.  Replacing many full-sized delivery vehicles, or even your own trips to the store.

NASA video:  developing drone flight plan software.

Quote
@NASA: We’re helping shape the next era of aviation. Learn about our efforts to manage low altitude commercial drone flight
https://t.co/nTs2fWASHg.
https://twitter.com/nasa/status/630063892337590272
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #425 on: August 09, 2015, 12:50:29 AM »
Norway's Goal: All New Cars Will Be Emissions-Free by 2025 to Cut Carbon
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1099324_norways-goal-all-new-cars-will-be-electric-by-2025-to-cut-carbon
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #426 on: August 09, 2015, 01:04:30 PM »
So, when are they going to build a useful car for minimalists such as I?

What did you have in mind? How about a Renault Twizy?

https://www.renault.co.uk/vehicles/new-vehicles/twizy.html



"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9470
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1333
  • Likes Given: 617
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #427 on: August 09, 2015, 03:55:24 PM »
So, when are they going to build a useful car for minimalists such as I?

What did you have in mind? How about a Renault Twizy?

I know the Twizy, it's a scooter with a roof.  :)

I'm thinking more of a light-weight VW Golf with no 20" monitor screens and other superfluous gadgetry. I'm driving an Opel Combo (CNG) right now - oh wait, you saw it 2 years ago, Jim  ;D - and it's perfect, but a bit too big. That was very convenient as we have been building our house, but we could do with a smaller car net year or so. Maybe something like a Leaf, but without all the gadgets, and definitely not a SUV.

Or maybe no car at all. That's also something we're seriously considering.

Let's just say that Tesla annoys me.  :)

The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #428 on: August 09, 2015, 07:27:01 PM »
Let's just say that Tesla annoys me.  :)

Tesla is merely breaking down barriers; and making their patents available for free, so other companies can run with them and do different things.  Elon Musk is more than happy to see people buy other electric cars (after his are spoken for, of course -- which doesn't seem to be a problem   
:) ).  He wants nothing less than a complete upheaval of the industry.  Small car, or no car: go for it, Neven! 

When fully-autonomous cars become a thing, significantly fewer cars will be needed, anyway.  8)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9470
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1333
  • Likes Given: 617
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #429 on: August 09, 2015, 09:34:00 PM »
He wants nothing less than a complete upheaval of the industry.

And so he builds a SUV? Wow, what an upheaval.  ::)

What's the first word in the mantra reduce, re-use, recycle?
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

Zythryn

  • New ice
  • Posts: 81
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #430 on: August 09, 2015, 11:09:42 PM »
He wants nothing less than a complete upheaval of the industry.

And so he builds a SUV? Wow, what an upheaval.  ::)

What's the first word in the mantra reduce, re-use, recycle?

Well, they are reducing the amount of gasoline needed in the average car.
Unfortunately, they can't start be building 500,000 small cars/year as they simply don't have the production capability.
Per, "the not so secret master plan" start with a high cost, very low quantity proof of concept.  Then move to lower cost, higher quantity cars.  Using the funds from the first cars to grow their production capability.

If you are looking for a more minimalistic car, check out the Miev.  As long as the range. Meets your needs it is a great little car.

JayW

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 607
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 226
  • Likes Given: 292
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #431 on: August 09, 2015, 11:13:36 PM »
I can see merit in trying to replace gas guzzling SUVs with an electric alternative.  Unfortunately, people want their big SUV, and the more you tell them they should downsize, the more they dig in their heels.  I'm not saying it's right, it's just how people react in my experiences.   Replacing 40mpg cars with electric vehicles is extremely important, but removing the biggest offenders might also prove effective.  Full disclosure, I've owned a few Tesla share for a while now.  So I'm an Elon fanboy.   ;D
"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #432 on: August 09, 2015, 11:27:40 PM »
He wants nothing less than a complete upheaval of the industry.

And so he builds a SUV? Wow, what an upheaval.  ::)

What's the first word in the mantra reduce, re-use, recycle?

Well, they are reducing the amount of gasoline needed in the average car.
Unfortunately, they can't start be building 500,000 small cars/year as they simply don't have the production capability.
Per, "the not so secret master plan" start with a high cost, very low quantity proof of concept.  Then move to lower cost, higher quantity cars.  Using the funds from the first cars to grow their production capability.

If you are looking for a more minimalistic car, check out the Miev.  As long as the range. Meets your needs it is a great little car.

I like the master plan, it makes sense, it has a good chance of succeeding (especially as it includes another important aspect - make the high cost initial version into a fashion item for super-rich, then hope everybody wants to imitate them). My only problem is that by the time it's come to serious fruition, nationally and then across the globe, we'll be way past any reasonable climate tipping points. Still, Elon Musk does what he can and I admire him for that.

(NOT trying to restart heated arguments)

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9470
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1333
  • Likes Given: 617
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #433 on: August 09, 2015, 11:53:00 PM »
I thought the Tesla S was the master plan, but now SUVs. What's next? Pick-up trucks? Vans? Tanks? Luxury yachts?

As much as the geek in me likes all the stuff that Musk does, it looks like Green BAU with a heavy dose of personality worship.

What will be done, will be done, I guess.
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #434 on: August 10, 2015, 12:53:07 AM »
I thought the Tesla S was the master plan, but now SUVs. What's next? Pick-up trucks? Vans? Tanks? Luxury yachts?
...

I think you have it somewhat backwards.  Musk's goal all along has been to reduce the cost of a great EV by using the economies of scale:  more units of a model, built for less cost, as the years go by.  Because to build lots of good-quality cars more cheaply, you need a big factory, big suppliers, and a lot of technical and customer support.  That doesn't happen overnight.

This is a crude Tesla timeline, showing the models chronologically.  Maybe it will help:

Tesla Roadster      Tiny production, much hand-built. $125k+ each.
Model S.               Small production.   $70-100k+
High-end SUV.       Ramped production. 500 new robots in the factory.  $70-80k
Model 3, smaller sedan for the masses.  Gigafactory producing battery packs (biggest cost of car) more cheaply, at high volumes. High production, $30-35k               
« Last Edit: August 10, 2015, 12:59:08 AM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Zythryn

  • New ice
  • Posts: 81
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #435 on: August 10, 2015, 12:59:52 AM »
I thought the Tesla S was the master plan, but now SUVs. What's next? Pick-up trucks? Vans? Tanks? Luxury yachts?

As much as the geek in me likes all the stuff that Musk does, it looks like Green BAU with a heavy dose of personality worship.

What will be done, will be done, I guess.

The Model S is the second stage of the Master Plan.
The first was the Roadster.
The final step in the plan is the Model 3.

The Model X is a variation on the Model S.  Step 2B if you want to fit it into the plan.

If the Model S is taking Audi A8s, Mercedes S Class, and BMW 7 series gas guzzlers off the road, I'd say it is going according to plan.
If Tesla drives competition from other manufacturers, so much the better.

Will we reduce our CO2 output in time (or is it already to late)?  I don't know.  But it is progress.  If someone comes up with a way for us to progress further, faster, I'll be pulling for them too.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2015, 01:38:08 AM by Zythryn »

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 823
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 155
  • Likes Given: 546
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #436 on: August 10, 2015, 02:34:07 AM »
I'm a huge fan of Tesla - what Musk is trying to do and his genius in executing it.

The Model 3 mid-sized sedan is not the final goal either. Musk wants electric vehicles to take over completely (except in rockets!) Of course that includes compact and sub-compact cars and Musk has talked about those.

solartim27

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 599
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 42
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #437 on: August 10, 2015, 02:56:48 AM »
This might have been a rebroadcast, but it was the first time I heard it.  Lots of other good stories on the shows main page

Car-Free To Become Carefree In Helsinki
http://loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=15-P13-00032&segmentID=2
FNORD

sidd

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6774
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1047
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #438 on: August 10, 2015, 06:23:49 AM »
Musk is playing the numbers. Maximum bang for the buck is from reducing consumption at the high end.

If you make a freight truck 60,000lb,  5 miles/gallon get 6 miles a gallon thats a huge win. because over 30 mile, you save one gallon. If you make a small car get 35 mile/gallon instead of 30, you need to drive 200+ mile to save that gallon.

Consider now total miles driven by big and small, and it gets interesting quick. Freight trucks stay on the road a lot longer than Joe Blow goin to work.

But for SUV vs tiny car, similar numbers apply, even absent the discrepancy in total miles driven. SUV man drives about the same as small car man. First make the big ones more efficient. Saving the big gas hogs a lot of money may chafe, but also the quickest way to their black little hearts is thru their wallets.

or you could establish a dictatorship, decree small cars for only those that need them, massive public transit infrastructure and unicorns in the USA. Or await a political revolution, or work to create one. Musk is doing what he can, given what he sees. Others see things differently.

sidd

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #439 on: August 10, 2015, 01:08:02 PM »
Quote
With Tesla Motors, Musk has tried to revamp the way cars are manufactured and sold, while building out a worldwide fuel distribution network at the same time. Instead of hybrids, which in Musk lingo are suboptimal compromises, Tesla strives to make all-electric cars that people lust after and that push the limits of technology. Tesla does not sell these cars through dealers; it sells them on the Web and in Apple-like galleries located in high-end shopping centers. Tesla also does not anticipate making lots of money from servicing its vehicles, since electric cars do not require the oil changes and other maintenance procedures of traditional cars. The direct sales model embraced by Tesla stands as a major affront to car dealers used to haggling with their customers and making their profits from exorbitant maintenance fees. Tesla’s recharging stations now run alongside many of the major highways in the United States, Europe, and Asia and can add hundreds of miles of oomph back to a car in about twenty minutes. These so-called supercharging stations are solar-powered, and Tesla owners pay nothing to refuel. While much of America’s infrastructure decays, Musk is building a futuristic end-to-end transportation system that would allow the United States to leapfrog the rest of the world.
...
...The perceived lack of emotion is a symptom of Musk sometimes feeling like he’s the only one who really grasps the urgency of his mission. He’s less sensitive and less tolerant than other people because the stakes are so high. Employees need to help solve the problems to the absolute best of their ability or they need to get out of the way.

Musk has been pretty up front about these tendencies. He’s implored people to understand that he’s not chasing momentary opportunities in the business world. He’s trying to solve problems that have been consuming him for decades. During our conversations, Musk went back to this very point over and over again, making sure to emphasize just how long he’d thought about electric cars and space. The same patterns are visible in his actions as well. When Musk announced in 2014 that Tesla would open-source all of its patents, analysts tried to decide whether this was a publicity stunt or if it hid an ulterior motive or a catch. But the decision was a straightforward one for Musk. He wants people to make and buy electric cars. Man’s future, as he sees it, depends on this. If open-sourcing Tesla’s patents means other companies can build electric cars more easily, then that is good for mankind, and the ideas should be free. The cynic will scoff at this, and understandably so. Musk, however, has been programmed to behave this way and tends to be sincere when explaining his thinking—almost to a fault.


Excerpt From: Vance, Ashlee. “Elon Musk.” HarperCollinsPublishers, 2015-03-27. iBooks.

Check out this book on the iBooks Store: https://itun.es/us/FtE50.l
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

SATire

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 514
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 34
  • Likes Given: 8
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #440 on: August 10, 2015, 03:06:11 PM »
Concerning Tesla and other electrical cars I would like to point to the posts #201-#203 on page 5 in this thread:

Most electrical cars today are not more CO2 efficient than modern combustion cars. Unless you have a nearly 100% renewable electricity source like in Norway _And_ use the car and its battery long enough to pay of the extra effort in production.

In countries with less than 50% renewables in the grid the efficient injection-diesel cars are still the best choice - unless you have poor quality of that fuel like in some states of the USA. For such reasons e.g. Mercedes gives no waranty for the diesel engine in such countries so you can actually not get them there... Maybe buy a smaller car and clean your diesel fuel first, since that is green BAU state of the art.

So I think that Tesla-concept is just live-style Green-Washing and not even green BAU, since that is defined by the more efficient and smaller cars. Also the scaling is no good argument, since that works in general in the car industry. Furthermore the "first the expensive and later the cheap models" is also a general trend in the car industry - compare that with BMW i8->i3 or that Porsche 918 spyder -> Audi -> VW chain. No - those are all nice life-style accessoires made to impress the neighbours or the girls. None of them safes the world a bit, but a BMW i3 makes you look nice at the tennis court with its "sustainability from the ground"-marketing. That is all about EV today: feelings without reason.
 

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #441 on: August 10, 2015, 10:34:45 PM »
Once again the answer is not ev's it is no cars.

But that being said there is a lot of missed information regarding Tesla by those who have fallen in love with Musk's image.  It is still a business.  The hype around Musk and his ventures is remarkable but there is a reality underneath all his marketing and 'philosophical' programming too.  None of his various technology ventures (not counting Paypal and his first software company) have ever made a profit absent tax credits and subsidies.

I note in its most recent market report Tesla shows a quarterly loss of $154 million and that it is losing $4000 per car it sells.

In a business sense Tesla is far from a success yet and may well never make it there.  Tesla has made a 'profit' in only 1 business quarter in its entire existence and that was due to various credits and subsidies.  The company is projecting that it may reach positive cash flow 3rd quarter this year.  The company projects that it will become profitable in 2020 by standard accounting principals. But that projection is based upon sales of 319,000 vehicles in 2020.  When total US sales for all ev vehicles this year is going to be about 100,000.  And there will be competing vehicles from every manufacturer.  So in a practical sense this means that to have any chance of this occurring total US sales of ev's in 2020 would need to be well above 1 million a year.

I note that looking through a host of ev sales projections for 2020 there are none which come up with numbers that are even close to that except for ev advocate sites similar to those found that promote the fossil fuel industry (in other words they have no credibility) - and even their numbers fall short of the totals needed in almost all cases.  And none of those projections have taken into account the current crash in oil prices which make ice vehicles far more competitive in a dollars out per day for the consumer.  And if oil prices stay way down for 2-3 years as many are thinking is likely now - what then?

If we want to fix things and not just play with cool toys we have to vet all ideas and efforts as to how they address our fundamental problems.  If they do not pass muster we need to move on until we find ideas which do address those fundamental problems.  Like getting rid of cars, stopping burning coal, getting rid of 98% of the politicians we have now, demolishing the oligarchy, and tons of other worthy approaches. 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #442 on: August 10, 2015, 11:58:51 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #443 on: August 11, 2015, 12:20:47 AM »
Carlos Ghosn, head of the Renault-Nissan alliance:
Quote
If you are worried about the total CO2, there is an obvious solution. It is to stop the old cars. This would be radical, but politically extremely difficult.” But he says emissions limits will also be important in accelerating electric car sales.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/01/are-we-on-the-brink-of-an-electric-car-revolution
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #444 on: August 11, 2015, 01:26:45 AM »
Elon Musk:  'Profits Are Not Our Primary Goal'.  :)
http://www.inc.com/elon-musk/elon-musk-tesla-spacex-profits-are-not-our-primary-goal.html


I have watched that before.  Have you actually watched it?  I doubt it because you need to listen to it and understand what his real interests are.  There is a lot out there on what Musk says he is really interested in...and it is not fixing climate change, carrying capacity or over population.  He is firmly wedded to the green-BAU camp and it appears that his main reason to do that is this...

He says he believes that the only hope for humanity is to increase our chances of survival by rapidly accelerating space exploration and technology so that we can colonize other planets.  He has said he thinks this is the most important thing to do.  If that is true then it means he has come to the conclusion that it is not really possible to fix our coming problems doesn't it? 

So the man who holds some billions of dollars in stock in a couple of companies which have not made a dime says that profits are not the main point.  These companies only exist because of subsidies and the hope of future profits.  I assure you that the investors in Tesla are ONLY there to make profits.  If they decide those profits are not coming they will run for the exits.  This is business and Musk knows this. 

It is foolish and naive to think that anyone in Musk's position says or does anything without an agenda or a reason.  I would be very careful about taking anything he says at face value.  Or anyone for that matter.  Sit down and figure it out for yourself and see if what you are being told make any sense.  Is his agenda really what he says it is? That it is all about getting to space?  Or is it really all about being clever and making a few billion from his supposedly 'sustainable' cars (an oxymoron) so that he can spend it on space stuff? Or what? Hard to say but neither one does us any good does it. 

Cars do not fix our problems but they might make Musk a few billion that he can spend on space as that appears to be his real focus.  One can line up a host of PhD's in physics who have written articles on all the aspects of space flight and colonizing other planets.  This is a sci-fi pipe dream and will remain such for a very long time - its just physics. If we do not fix our problems on this spaceship we are not going to ever have a chance at what he wants.  His focus is misplaced if it is honest.  But he is a great marketer - reminds me of The Donald in a lot of ways.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #445 on: August 11, 2015, 01:42:06 AM »
Carlos Ghosn, head of the Renault-Nissan alliance:
Quote
If you are worried about the total CO2, there is an obvious solution. It is to stop the old cars. This would be radical, but politically extremely difficult.” But he says emissions limits will also be important in accelerating electric car sales.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/01/are-we-on-the-brink-of-an-electric-car-revolution

You bolded the wrong parts. 

Quote
Carlos Ghosn, the fast-talking head of the Renault-Nissan alliance, is not keen to be drawn on targets for electric car sales. A 2011 prediction of 1.5m Renault-Nissan electric vehicles by 2016 turned out to be wildly optimistic. The group just passed the 250,000 mark.

...This would be radical, but politically extremely difficult.” ...
 

Another fast talking car salesman who's job 1-a million is to make profits for his investors.  If he doesn't he gets to hit the road.

Quote
...“When we know exactly where the EU, US, China will be heading in 2030, I can tell you exactly how much electric cars will be needed,” he says, referring to a crunch UN summit in Paris in November....

Well I think we can be pretty certain that the US and China will play the standard game of promising good sounding stuff and delivering nothing.  There is zero near term chance of a dramatic shift in US direction and policy.  And there is a fair chance that much of what the US is doing will be reversed in the next couple of years as there is a huge wave of political will to do just that.

Quote
..The reasons for people being relatively slow to buy electric cars are simple, Ghosn says: “If there is a price penalty, they just don’t buy. If there is range anxiety, they just don’t buy.”..

Boy that sounds familiar doesn't it?  Prices in the US are going to be kept down for some time due to oil market dynamics and the complete inability in the US to ever implement a tax system which will penalize ICE vehicles.  If you can't make ICE vehicles too expensive people will continue to buy them.  And their emission tail is large and long. 

Anyway this is boring.  Cars are not the solution.  No cars is the solution.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 823
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 155
  • Likes Given: 546
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #446 on: August 11, 2015, 01:53:47 AM »
   When discussing Musk's plans and motives, please be aware that he is heavily involved in a third company as well as in Tesla (electric cars) and SpaceX (rockets).

  That company is Solar City - which is at the forefront of expanding the uptake of solar power.

  Electric cars plus renewable energy goes a long way towards reducing our emissions of greenhouse gases, as well as our unsustainable hunter-gatherer dependence on fossil fuels.

 
  In my view Musk's programme is evidently a solution to those.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #447 on: August 11, 2015, 02:31:51 PM »
If you don't like electric vehicles, fine -- don't buy one.  But please explain how we will eliminate the 13% of global emissions from the transport sector, yet still get supplies to businesses... and goods, including food, to people... and people to their jobs... without relocating a majority of the population -- by, say, 2050 -- without them. 
(For the sake of this experiment, let's say "Curl up and die" is not an option.) ;)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Zythryn

  • New ice
  • Posts: 81
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 47
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #448 on: August 11, 2015, 03:11:24 PM »
Jim, I agree with you, cars are not the perfect answer.
Yet, we have a path to lower emissions through electric cars.

What is your path towards eliminating cars?

Yes, your goal of zero cars will do more for cutting CO2.
Yet I see no path to reaching that goal other than total collapse.

So I will promote the goal that cuts our CO2 from personal transportation in half and has a chance, rather than your plan that has zero chance, thus results on no decrease in CO2.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9470
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1333
  • Likes Given: 617
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #449 on: August 11, 2015, 03:47:27 PM »
Sure, but why SUVs? It's like saying 'we're going to replace our napalm bombs with cluster bombs', whereas we should return to hand grenades to minimize collateral damage. It's like saying to your baby to not stick its fingers in the outlet, and then give it a razor blade to play with. It's like a nun saying that God has forbidden sexual intercourse, but anal is okay.

Is electrical SUVs the only way we can cut CO2? Or can we just build no-nonsense electrical cars (like the EV-1 that was built, I don't know, two decades ago?) and make SUVs a social taboo, by constantly repeating that they're for stupid, selfish people?

No, demi-god Elon says electric SUVs will be our fastest highway to salvation, and thus it must be. This is just Breakthrough Institute-grade trolling where we solve the problem by not talking about it. It's insane.
The enemy is within
Don't confuse me with him

E. Smith