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JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #750 on: January 09, 2016, 08:35:44 PM »
It strikes me a a lot of marketing when I see statements which imply that sales of ev's in the US are good or showing good trends. 

Sales were flat in 2014 and down in 2015.  This is dismissed by statements about folks waiting for this years models or that they are being adopted at rapid or meaningful rates.  What we see are flat and declining sales rates.  The simple answer to why this is happening is clear.

Oil prices are way down.

This makes the economics of owning an ICE vehicle much cheaper than for EV's. 

Then you have the consumer issues which are facilitated by those low prices for oil.  In those 17.5 million sales it is good do keep in mind that most all of the growth is in the largest most fuel inefficient vehicles - pickups and SUV's.  The growth in those categories far - far- exceeds the EV sales numbers.  Pickups and SUV's accounted for 60% of 2015 sales - that is 10.5 million vehicles! 

That block of sales takes us past 2025 in terms of the financial commitment of the buyers and the emissions dialed into the system.  Thus what happened this year and in 2014 has swamped all the possible benefits from all previous EV sales in the US and also for several years to come.  We lost huge ground - huge.

To top this off oil prices are going to be very low for this year as well.  While the likely decline in the US economy might slow car sales it is still certain that 2016 will see very large sales of the biggest ICE vehicles and, at best, small increases in total sales of EV's.  Those advocating the EV revolution being a solution are going to fall even further behind this year.

And in terms of what is happening with this issue it is North America which is the key market.  It is not just that EV sales fell 5.3% in 2015.  It is worse than that as 22% of all EV sales in the US were high end luxury cars.  Tesla's.  The sales of luxury cars is never a positive marker when the issue is stopping excessive consumption and waste of resources.  A person buying a small fuel efficient ICE vehicle is doing far more to help than some rich guy hot rodding around in a Tesla.  They are no different than Al Gore talking environmentalism and living in a 40,000 plus square foot mansion.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Zythryn

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #751 on: January 10, 2016, 05:09:22 AM »
...

Sales were flat in 2014 and down in 2015.  ...

And in terms of what is happening with this issue it is North America which is the key market.  It is not just that EV sales fell 5.3% in 2015.  It is worse than that as 22% of all EV sales in the US were high end luxury cars.  Tesla's.  The sales of luxury cars is never a positive marker when the issue is stopping excessive consumption and waste of resources.  A person buying a small fuel efficient ICE vehicle is doing far more to help than some rich guy hot rodding around in a Tesla.  They are no different than Al Gore talking environmentalism and living in a 40,000 plus square foot mansion.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

By the very link you referenced, EV sales were not flat in 2014, they were up.
We shall have to see what EV sales do this year.  I believe they will increase, mainly on strength of PHEVs, with BEVs having more growth than PHEVs in 2017.

As for which types of cars, I would rather replace high performance/large ICE vehicles with electrics than smaller efficient ICE vehicles.  Far larger gains.

sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #752 on: January 10, 2016, 05:48:24 AM »
china at 24 million cars for the year, roughly 1% EV and hybrid, year on year growth rates of 600% for the latter. Lets see where they go.

SATire

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #753 on: January 10, 2016, 01:14:18 PM »
It is very hard to say what the best comparison is to judge the uptake rate of EVs. Some suggest we should look at the way cell phones and then smartphones took off and are now omni-present.

Here's an interesting comparison between Tesla sales growth and Porsche sales growth. I'd have never thought of this one since I thought Porsche has been around forever (but what do I know)

http://evobsession.com/tesla-sales-similar-to-porsche-sales-in-20002001/

This may or may not be a valid comparison but it is worth noting at least.
ghoti, I think this comparison is far from valid. Porsche now is in the process of being transfered to the 4th generation of the family with interesting changes on the way (including e.g. designers and an anthroposophic educator Daniell Porsche) - but held closely behind the scenes today. In the time-frame talked about in the linked article Porsche was very profitable and able to buy Volkswagen while Tesla is succesfull in burning money. Once Tusk would rule also GM you could start thinking about similarities. Porsche and now also Volkswagen is ruled like a monarchy by the family - a big international company ruled like a medium-sized company. So the comparison you cited is just extremely cherry-picked data. You will find mainly differences between those two companies/clans if you take a bit closer look.

JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #754 on: January 10, 2016, 04:03:09 PM »
...

Sales were flat in 2014 and down in 2015.  ...

And in terms of what is happening with this issue it is North America which is the key market.  It is not just that EV sales fell 5.3% in 2015.  It is worse than that as 22% of all EV sales in the US were high end luxury cars.  Tesla's.  The sales of luxury cars is never a positive marker when the issue is stopping excessive consumption and waste of resources.  A person buying a small fuel efficient ICE vehicle is doing far more to help than some rich guy hot rodding around in a Tesla.  They are no different than Al Gore talking environmentalism and living in a 40,000 plus square foot mansion.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

By the very link you referenced, EV sales were not flat in 2014, they were up.
We shall have to see what EV sales do this year.  I believe they will increase, mainly on strength of PHEVs, with BEVs having more growth than PHEVs in 2017.

As for which types of cars, I would rather replace high performance/large ICE vehicles with electrics than smaller efficient ICE vehicles.  Far larger gains.


Sorry.  That is flat.  Flat does not mean going down but not rising anywhere near as fast as expected/projected.  EV sales have been hyped and they are not performing.

Once again we see excuses for low sales and promise's that they are just around the corner.

Then you say you want to replace high performance/large ICE vehicles with EV's.  But that is not what is happening.  The ICE vehicles are growing strongly.  All you are doing is adding another luxury vehicle.  That is just stupid.

sidd

Quote
china at 24 million cars for the year, roughly 1% EV and hybrid, year on year growth rates of 600% for the latter. Lets see where they go.

China is not the main problem here.  It is the US, Canada, and the like. 


It is all well and good to fall in love with some cool gadget.  But stop selling this technology as a solution.  Spend some serious time examining the problems we have.  This is just pissing into the wind as it cannot in any meaningful way stop over population, exceeding the carrying capacity nor is it going to make a meaningful difference on the arrival of massive climate change effects.  Focus on things that really matter and where improvement will result in dealing with the key problems.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Zythryn

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #755 on: January 10, 2016, 06:54:38 PM »
...

Sorry.  That is flat.  Flat does not mean going down but not rising anywhere near as fast as expected/projected.  EV sales have been hyped and they are not performing.
...

EV sales were 97k in 2013.  In 2014 they were 123k.
That is about a 25% increase.

If you want to call that flat, that is your prerogative.  It is not, however, the typical meaning of the word. 
Did it meat some people's expectations?  No, but it met others almost dead on.

I find this forum very refreshing as it largely has people using facts, numbers and data.  Opinions are generally stated as such.

A Tesla that replaced a 18mpg Mustang in California reduced GHG contributions by a whole lot more than a Leaf replacing a Prius in California.

Is it enough of a reduction, perhaps not, but it is a lot more than doing nothing.

SATire

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #756 on: January 10, 2016, 08:04:23 PM »
I find this forum very refreshing as it largely has people using facts, numbers and data.  Opinions are generally stated as such.

A Tesla that replaced a 18mpg Mustang in California reduced GHG contributions by a whole lot more than a Leaf replacing a Prius in California.

Is it enough of a reduction, perhaps not, but it is a lot more than doing nothing.
Zythryn, I think JimD is quite right and if you read some of the previous pages in this thread you are able to understand that. E.g replacing a Mustang by a Tesla is not helping much. Replacing it by a Leaf would help - even a standard 75 mpg combustion car would help. Actually not the "replacing" would help but only the "buying instead". Since the scrapping of the Mustang would also be a waste of energy while selling it as a used car would not end the problems it causes.

A Tesla or such is not reasonable for driving but for sex (sports car) and crime (SUV), just like a Porsche, BMW, Mustang or actually most cars out there. If the car business would be driven by facts and reason it would be dead since the Ford T... Unfortunately it is not about driving but about emotions.

JimD

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #757 on: January 11, 2016, 06:15:17 PM »
...

Sorry.  That is flat.  Flat does not mean going down but not rising anywhere near as fast as expected/projected.  EV sales have been hyped and they are not performing.
...

EV sales were 97k in 2013.  In 2014 they were 123k.
That is about a 25% increase.

If you want to call that flat, that is your prerogative.  It is not, however, the typical meaning of the word. 
Did it meat some people's expectations?  No, but it met others almost dead on.

I find this forum very refreshing as it largely has people using facts, numbers and data.  Opinions are generally stated as such.

A Tesla that replaced a 18mpg Mustang in California reduced GHG contributions by a whole lot more than a Leaf replacing a Prius in California.

Is it enough of a reduction, perhaps not, but it is a lot more than doing nothing.

You are making several mistakes here.

The first is that you are focusing on little tiny numbers.  Round a bit.  EV sales have been running about 100k per year.  That is flat.

100K is a meaningless number in a market of 17+ million vehicles.  Promoters have been claiming for years that they are going to take over the market.  There have been some claiming that ev's will be over 50% of sales by 2020.  I hope you can see that this idea is crazy. 

But sales of ice vehicles are growing strongly.  And those low total numbers of ev's are weighed against the much larger numbers of ice vehicles.  That is losing ground by any measure.  For example the sales increase in Chevy Silverado pickups alone in 2015 was 80,000 - roughly equal to the total sales of non-luxury ev's.

A very big part of the ev sales is luxury cars.  To try and say that they are better than some ice luxury car is right back to the Al Gore hypocrisy that he is an environmentalist because he puts solar panels on his 40,000 sq ft mansion.  If you are driving a luxury car you are part of the problem not part of the solution.  Take out luxury cars from the ev totals and you have even more meaningless sales numbers.  Tesla is not part of the solution since their market is selling a very expensive high tech lifestyle. 

Cars are the enemy.  All cars pretty much.  Because they come part and parcel with some version of BAU and continuing industrial civilizational lifestyles.  Cars promote suburban and rural living and consumer orientations.  All bad practices.  We need people to be moving into denser housing which is built to completely different standards than almost 100% of dwellings currently lived in and being built and that new housing must be served by mass transit and where there is no need for cars at all.

This all goes towards looking at our problems from a systemic point of view.  This is where one sees that the idea of ev's or renewables in general are not a solution.  They can be essential technologies providing the main problems are solved.  But focusing on them and not working on the big problems is the green BAU we see and that approach makes it much less likely the effort will be put into working the essential issues.  This is what you are advocating when you put these ideas forward as solutions and it leads to utter failure.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #758 on: January 11, 2016, 09:59:19 PM »
So all those articles a few months ago, describing fully autonomous driving in 2025 or 2035?  Heh!  Elon Musk says that with Tesla's auto-learning features accumulating over a million miles of experience a day, cars (with the appropriate hardware) will be able to drive themselves, on all roads, with safety better than a human, in two to three years!  Appropriate legislation is being discussed....
  Also coming: a "less creepy" automatic charger-plugger-inner!   ;)
  Link to the audio of his entire conference call is included in the article linked below.

Tesla’s Autopilot is now better than humans at highway driving – Elon Musk press conference for the release of software v7.1
http://electrek.co/2016/01/11/elon-musk-press-conference-v7-1-tesla-summon/

More on the Summon feature, including videos of it in action:
http://electrek.co/2016/01/09/model-s-drive-itself-tesla-updated-v7-1-with-summoninging-option/
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Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #759 on: January 12, 2016, 04:34:54 AM »
Teslas gadgetry is amazing, how amazing would it be here?
Nowadays, when it snows, it snows like .... .

The device used to summon my car is an old (1983) fossil guzzling Ariens ST1136. 11hp, 36" wide and 40" high (101,6 cm), if someone wonders about the height of that wall of snow.

Edit, note that the first picture is from 20101123. A full month earlier than when I cut my lawn last year...

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #760 on: January 12, 2016, 03:02:10 PM »
Here is my favorite video of a Tesla Model S passing several stuck SUVs on a steep snowy/icy hill.  The Tesla even stops completely, then starts again -- with no tire spin.
http://www.treehugger.com/cars/going-uphill-tesla-passes-bunch-suvs-stuck-snow-video.html

As for deep, unplowed snow... well, give Elon time.  You can already turn your Model S into a submarine.    ;)
New Tesla Model S Easter Egg — Turn The Model S Into The Lotus Esprit Submarine (VIDEO)
http://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/02/new-tesla-model-s-easter-egg-turn-model-s-lotus-espirit-submarine/

But as for flying cars, don't look to Tesla for that any time soon.  Elon says enough mayhem is caused with vehicles moving in only two dimensions.   ;D
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #761 on: January 12, 2016, 03:14:07 PM »
...

Sorry.  That is flat.  Flat does not mean going down but not rising anywhere near as fast as expected/projected.  EV sales have been hyped and they are not performing.
...

EV sales were 97k in 2013.  In 2014 they were 123k.
That is about a 25% increase.

If you want to call that flat, that is your prerogative.  It is not, however, the typical meaning of the word. 
Did it meat some people's expectations?  No, but it met others almost dead on.

I find this forum very refreshing as it largely has people using facts, numbers and data.  Opinions are generally stated as such.

A Tesla that replaced a 18mpg Mustang in California reduced GHG contributions by a whole lot more than a Leaf replacing a Prius in California.

Is it enough of a reduction, perhaps not, but it is a lot more than doing nothing.

Jim D. I could not possibly agree with you more.

This all goes towards looking at our problems from a systemic point of view.  This is where one sees that the idea of ev's or renewables in general are not a solution.  They can be essential technologies providing the main problems are solved.  But focusing on them and not working on the big problems is the green BAU we see and that approach makes it much less likely the effort will be put into working the essential issues.  This is what you are advocating when you put these ideas forward as solutions and it leads to utter failure.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #762 on: January 12, 2016, 09:52:30 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

ritter

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #763 on: January 13, 2016, 01:40:26 AM »
California Air Resources Board says FU to VW's recall plan.

Quote
Air Resources Board rejects VW 2-liter diesel recall plan and issues Notice of Violation
http://www.arb.ca.gov/newsrel/newsrelease.php?id=780

Well, at least I can now hit up VW again with the "see, your window sticker was deceitful and fraudulent, let me out of the god damned lease" argument again. Talk about pissing in the wind...  >:(

Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #764 on: January 13, 2016, 09:13:16 AM »
Here is my favorite video of a Tesla Model S passing several stuck SUVs on a steep snowy/icy hill.  The Tesla even stops completely, then starts again -- with no tire spin.
http://www.treehugger.com/cars/going-uphill-tesla-passes-bunch-suvs-stuck-snow-video.html

As for deep, unplowed snow... well, give Elon time.  You can already turn your Model S into a submarine.    ;)
New Tesla Model S Easter Egg — Turn The Model S Into The Lotus Esprit Submarine (VIDEO)
http://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/02/new-tesla-model-s-easter-egg-turn-model-s-lotus-espirit-submarine/

But as for flying cars, don't look to Tesla for that any time soon.  Elon says enough mayhem is caused with vehicles moving in only two dimensions.   ;D

Where is that video taken? I see neither snow or a steep hill. ;)
He should thank his Michelins for that. The rest of them must have been using slicks.

His car (Model S P85D) would cost me over 1.000.000 SEK here.
Including the 90kWh battery package and winter package, of course...
But Tesla owners are reporting the same thing as the rest of the EV owners here in Sweden and Norway, the range is/can be halved during winter.

This is what I have access to, in my nearest municipality (southern Sweden). One 230V 16A Schuko and three 400V 16A. And they are far from the places I usually visit and normally occupied by the local electricity company.

I simply can't buy an EV even if I had the money. Especially since the expansion of charging posts are left to companies like McDonalds...
Negative or realistic? You tell me.

First picture shows stations offering Tesla plugs.
Second picture shows stations offering fossil fuels.
Third picture shows stations offering renewables. (The yellow reporesents charging posts.)

AbruptSLR

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #765 on: January 13, 2016, 06:59:03 PM »
Per the linked articles both the US and Mexican auto industries had record high auto sales in 2015 (the image is from the first link) and are primed to possibly do better in 2016 (obviously this is not good for carbon emissions):

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2016/01/05/auto-sales/78295542/
http://www.wsj.com/articles/mexican-auto-industry-ends-2015-with-record-output-1452553261


See also:
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-auto-sales-20160105-story.html

Extract: "Americans have driven auto sales to their highest total in years, and analysts predicted more of the same for 2016.
Sales of new cars and trucks in 2015 hit 17.47 million, toppling the previous record of 17.35 million set in 2000. Analysts attributed the gains to a strong economy, interest rates that were at historic lows and higher consumer confidence."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #766 on: January 13, 2016, 08:41:53 PM »
Sleepy, 

I'm sure it had nothing to do with the fact that the P90D powers each wheel individually, computer-controlled to the microsecond to eliminate wheel spin (and thus not even a tire "chirp" upon a full-bore racing start)....  ;)

As per the image below, I find many superchargers in Sweden in the PlugShare app.  (Teslas have adapter plugs so they can juice up at most chargers, or home dryer- or wall- plugs.  They don't have to use Tesla superchargers, and you can limit the amperage it draws, when necessary.)

So you can't afford a P90D.  Neither can I.  But similar technology will soon (2017) be available in the second generation of electric cars, with increased ranges, that most people will be able to afford.  (Yes, mountains and cold weather reduce max range.)

Given the increasing number of EVs in Sweden (Tesla sales were up 270% in Sweden in 2015 :) ), more chargers will certainly appear.  Give it time.  But I'm betting other EV drivers have already found some!
« Last Edit: January 13, 2016, 08:50:09 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #767 on: January 13, 2016, 09:30:35 PM »
California Rejects VW Diesel Fix Plan: 'Gaps,' 'Lacks Detail'
Quote
It seems owners of Volkswagen diesel cars equipped with illegal "defeat device" software will have to wait longer for a recall to update their cars.

The plan submitted by VW in November to modify its 2.0-liter four-cylinder TDI diesel models has been rejected by the regulatory agencies that must approve those fixes.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) said Tuesday that it had rejected the proposed plan. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said it concurs.

Both CARB and the EPA must approve Volkswagen's plans before the company can proceed with a recall. The California agency made its decision after pushing back its own deadline for approval by a few weeks.

The proposed plans for the 2.0-liter cars "contain gaps and lack sufficient detail," a CARB press release said.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101854_california-rejects-vw-diesel-fix-plan-gaps-lacks-detail
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #768 on: January 13, 2016, 10:15:55 PM »
Google's self-drive cars had to be stopped from crashing
Quote
Google drivers had to intervene to stop its self-driving cars from crashing on California's roads 13 times between September 2014 and November 2015.

The disclosure follows a local regulator's demand for the information.

Six other car tech companies also revealed data about autonomous-driving safety incidents of their own.
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-35301279

The other companies had up to thousands of driver "interventions" -- although some were "planned."

Only Tesla had zero interventions. 

I note that Tesla's million-mile-per-day, shared fleet learning gives it orders of magnitude more experience than the other programs.

Edit: Reading the regulation, it appears this report covers only "testing", by the company's employee test drivers, under specific conditions.  So all of the Tesla owner "Beta-testers" don't count!
https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/d48f347b-8815-458e-9df2-5ded9f208e9e/adopted_txt.pdf?MOD=AJPERES
« Last Edit: January 13, 2016, 11:37:27 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #769 on: January 14, 2016, 12:03:10 AM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #770 on: January 14, 2016, 12:29:51 AM »
When Do U.S. Electric-Car Tax Credits Expire? (UPDATED)
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1085549_when-do-electric-car-tax-credits-expire

Germany wants to invest $2 billion in incentives for electric vehicle buyers
http://electrek.co/2016/01/13/germany-ev-incentive/
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Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #771 on: January 14, 2016, 06:14:46 AM »
Sleepy, 

I'm sure it had nothing to do with the fact that the P90D powers each wheel individually, computer-controlled to the microsecond to eliminate wheel spin (and thus not even a tire "chirp" upon a full-bore racing start)....  ;)
I'm sure I would have made that hill with a Volvo from the sixties with zero computing power and equipped with proper tyres. I've seen a lot worse conditions than that, our roads are rarely ploughed in the mornings when we get to work here. Where do you live Sigmetnow?
Quote
As per the image below, I find many superchargers in Sweden in the PlugShare app.  (Teslas have adapter plugs so they can juice up at most chargers, or home dryer- or wall- plugs.  They don't have to use Tesla superchargers, and you can limit the amperage it draws, when necessary.)
I know, more gadgets to buy. If you consider CCS, CHADEMO and Teslas SC we have these available, as per the image below. We need more fast chargers, not regular 10/16A outlets...
Quote
So you can't afford a P90D.  Neither can I.  But similar technology will soon (2017) be available in the second generation of electric cars, with increased ranges, that most people will be able to afford.  (Yes, mountains and cold weather reduce max range.)
A fully equipped P85D costs 1.553.400 SEK. :)
As for future promises I need increased range and/or more fast chargers, please. And larger EV's... I will wait until next year and let you know how things go. Soon come, is a Jamaican expression isn't it? ;)
Quote
Given the increasing number of EVs in Sweden (Tesla sales were up 270% in Sweden in 2015 :) ), more chargers will certainly appear.  Give it time.  But I'm betting other EV drivers have already found some!
They were actually up 274,3%. In the second picture are the numbers by Tesla Club Sweden. The other "big" seller here is Nissan.
I'll take your bet! How much? 
There are unfortunately ZERO fast chargers available where I live. And that's in southern Sweden...

And McDonalds has finished their project with thirteen fastchargers.
http://www.mcdonalds.se/se/om_mcdonald_s/vart_hallbarhetsarbete/ladda_elbilen.html Have a burger and feel green!!

Edit; -19°C this morning (talk about wild swings) and my car almost didn't start. A Korean car was clearly a bad choice despite that ECO sticker in the back, the only EC(h)O it makes is from the exhaust, if it starts. :( I would love to have an EV, but there are clearly some challenges.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2016, 06:32:47 AM by Sleepy »

Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #772 on: January 14, 2016, 09:24:36 AM »
Time ran out. So, after freezing my ass off for a while I thought I'd add the statistics for car sales in Sweden 2015.

The big boomer in Sweden IS in fact Tesla and other pure EV's. Sales increased 213% compared to 2014. Happy dance?
Total number of pure EV's were 2962. Numbers for all of the "clean cars" are found in the first attached picture.
If you look at the percentage of all newly registered cars sales, "clean cars" dropped from 18% in 2014 to 17,5% in 2015. How?

We just registered a new record in car sales and some are indeed doing the happy dance.
345108 new cars during 2015, an increase by 13,5% compared to 2014. The numbers for 2015 are the highest ever and beats the previous record from 1988 which was 343963 cars.

Not all newly registered cars are accounted for in this report by Car Sweden. But close. Unfortunately the report is in Swedish but the rest is in this PDF: http://goo.gl/wwmuAA
Pic 2 sales per month.
Pic 3 history since 1960 and the projection for 2016.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #773 on: January 14, 2016, 07:38:55 PM »
Sleepy, 

I'm sure it had nothing to do with the fact that the P90D powers each wheel individually, computer-controlled to the microsecond to eliminate wheel spin (and thus not even a tire "chirp" upon a full-bore racing start)....  ;)
I'm sure I would have made that hill with a Volvo from the sixties with zero computing power and equipped with proper tyres. I've seen a lot worse conditions than that, our roads are rarely ploughed in the mornings when we get to work here. Where do you live Sigmetnow?
...

I, too, managed to drive to work for many years in the early morning, even through unplowed deep snow, in a front-(or, less enjoyably, a rear-)wheel-drive gas car.  Technique is everything.   ;D

So I'll say only that the rolling resistance on your Volvo's "tyres" ;)  does not approach the critical importance of that aspect for an EV.

And, I live in the mountains of the eastern U.S.  :)
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Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #774 on: January 14, 2016, 08:12:45 PM »
Sorry for my lousy English, Sigmetnow. It's been fifteen years now since I used English on a regular basis (time spent on this forum excluded) and it still hurts to use it. I would rather prefer Swedish, would you? ;)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #775 on: January 15, 2016, 01:37:44 PM »
Sorry for my lousy English, Sigmetnow. It's been fifteen years now since I used English on a regular basis (time spent on this forum excluded) and it still hurts to use it. I would rather prefer Swedish, would you? ;)

Your English is excellent!!!  It's my "American" that fouls things up.  ;D 
Languages are cool.  I've studied Mandarin Chinese and American Sign Language, besides high school French, some Latin, and an occasional Spanish lesson.  Never attempted Swedish, though.  ;)

The point I wanted to make was that you can't just pick out a tire with an amazingly aggressive tread and slap it on an EV, because not only would it severely affect range and performance, but you could irreparably damage the power train.  So, although their heavy weight from the battery pack helps, it is more the technology than the tires that gets an EV up a slippery hill.  Which is pretty impressive to me! 
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #776 on: January 15, 2016, 01:40:16 PM »
Indianapolis deploys second-largest electric bus fleet in the US
Quote
The ZEPS buses not only create zero local emissions, but they were remanufactured from existing legacy buses, which achieved significant carbon savings and allowed IndyGo to acquire them at a fraction of the cost of new all-electric buses.
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/indianapolis-deploys-second-largest-electric-bus-fleet-in-the-us/
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #777 on: January 15, 2016, 04:33:52 PM »
The Swedish Institute provides free online classes in Swedish! http://learningswedish.se/courses/1

I had a small electric car. I don't remember going up slippery hills as much of a problem. More that I had greatly reduced range when we got down to temperatures much below freezing. That and the fact that it was too light and small to go over snow banks that the plows would leave at the entrances to alley ways and drive ways. I ended up pretty much leaving it in the garage during the deepest parts of the winter.

That was a very early model though (the Zenn), and I assume they've made improvements on all those fronts with more recent types of EVs.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #778 on: January 15, 2016, 08:26:32 PM »
The Swedish Institute provides free online classes in Swedish! http://learningswedish.se/courses/1

Neat!  I'll give it a look.
Var är biblioteket, here I come.  :)

Quote
I had a small electric car. I don't remember going up slippery hills as much of a problem. More that I had greatly reduced range when we got down to temperatures much below freezing. That and the fact that it was too light and small to go over snow banks that the plows would leave at the entrances to alley ways and drive ways. I ended up pretty much leaving it in the garage during the deepest parts of the winter.

That was a very early model though (the Zenn), and I assume they've made improvements on all those fronts with more recent types of EVs.
Yes; I think with an EV's heavy weight, it would have more luck whenever it can go through deep snow, rather than over it.  :D   
Maybe Elon needs to consider a Tank mode.  ;D
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #779 on: January 15, 2016, 09:01:50 PM »
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #780 on: January 15, 2016, 09:10:12 PM »
Obama administration proposes $4B spend to tackle legal barriers to rapid rollout of self-driving cars
Quote
The WSJ reports that the Obama administration wants to invest $3.9B in crafting rules and policies to facilitate the rapid rollout of self-driving cars. This would take place at the federal level, ensuring consistent national laws rather than a patchwork of state-by-state regulations …
http://electrek.co/2016/01/15/self-driving-car-law/
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #781 on: January 15, 2016, 09:15:28 PM »
Chrysler’s new hybrid minivan has a plug (but don’t tell anyone)
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/chryslers-new-hybrid-minivan-has-a-plug-but-dont-tell-anyone/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #782 on: January 16, 2016, 01:08:23 AM »
Saab (NEVS) inks a $1 billion deal to supply 20,000 electric cars to Volinco in China
Quote
National Electric Vehicle Sweden (Nevs), the firm that bought Saab’s assets out of bankruptcy in 2012, is singing some ridiculously big deals to supply electric vehicles to China lately. Last month, we reported on the company closing a massive 78-billion-yuan ($12 billion) deal to supply 150,000 electric cars to Chinese leasing firm Panda New Energy and now we learn from Reuters (via Autoblog) that Nevs signed a framework deal worth about 8.5 billion crowns ($1 billion) with China Volant Industry Co. (Volinco) for 20,000 electric cars.
http://electrek.co/2016/01/15/saab-nevs-1-billion-deal-20000-electric-cars-volinco-china/
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Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #783 on: January 16, 2016, 08:05:52 AM »
Sigmetnow & wili, I would definately vote for a mandatory requirement to study Swedish when registering on this forum!  ;D

Allthough Swedish is my native language I'm actually an immigrant, if you want to study something harder, try Finnish. I love languages and music and I love to play with words, but I can't really do that in another language.

To make this a bit more on topic I'll end with a real car in snow that I think I've seen more of than most, thanks to an old acquaintance who bought a lot of them from the Swedish defence.

Volvo valpen, "the puppy". This is the civilian version L3314, the military version was called Pltgb 903, later followed by Tgb 11, Volvo C303.


A closer look on that puppy.


There were/are also Tgb 13 & 20 with three axles. And there were also the amfibian version Tgb 12. That one never made it as costs were considered too high.


Ok enough, the puppy is ugly, loud, uncomfortable and runs on petrol. But it runs almost everywhere and for ever. Maybe we should send one to Elon so that he could build a real car?  ;D

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #784 on: January 16, 2016, 02:56:01 PM »
U.S. Department of Transportation announces plans to:
- open the road to self-driving cars
- make anti-collision technology such as Automatic Emergency Braking mandatory in new cars
- and develop Vehicle-to-Vehicle transponders.

DOT Will Open The Road For Self-Driving Cars
http://news.investors.com/011416-789897-regulators-will-set-rules-for-autonomous-driving.htm
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #785 on: January 18, 2016, 09:22:04 PM »
U.S.:  The FTC is holding a workshop on "Auto Distribution: Current Issues & Future Trends" on Tuesday, January 19, 2016.  The event will be webcast.  More info here:
https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/events-calendar/2016/01/auto-distribution-current-issues-future-trends
A link to the webcast will be added to this page on the day of the workshop.

EVENT DESCRIPTION
The Federal Trade Commission will hold a one-day public workshop on January 19, 2016, 9 am - 5:30 pm, to explore competition and related issues in the context of state regulation of motor vehicle distribution, and to promote more informed analysis of how these regulations affect businesses and consumers. The workshop, which will consist of presentations and discussion, will focus on the following topics: (1) the regulation of dealer location; (2) laws relating to reimbursement for warranty services; (3) restrictions on manufacturers’ ability to engage in direct sales to consumers; and (4) new developments affecting motor vehicle distribution, such as autonomous vehicles, connected cars, and the rise of subscription-based automobile sharing services.

Tesla supporters may be particularly interested in the 2:15 pm EST (7:15 pm UTC) session on "Direct Distribution," an issue which prevents Tesla from making sales in some states:

"Some states restrict the ability of car makers to sell their vehicles directly to the ultimate consumer, mandating the use of independent, franchised dealers. Several new entrants into automobile manufacturing have sought to bypass or overturn these restrictions and deal directly with the public. Are restrictions on direct distribution in this industry in the public interest? This panel will include experts on both sides of this contentious issue."
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Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #786 on: January 19, 2016, 03:28:38 AM »
"Some states restrict the ability of car makers to sell their vehicles directly to the ultimate consumer, mandating the use of independent, franchised dealers. Several new entrants into automobile manufacturing have sought to bypass or overturn these restrictions and deal directly with the public. Are restrictions on direct distribution in this industry in the public interest? This panel will include experts on both sides of this contentious issue."
What? In the land of the free? Why?

Pmt111500

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #787 on: January 19, 2016, 12:44:52 PM »

What? In the land of the free? Why?

When vested interests collide with the principles the land of the free is quite flexible on principles it seems. Finland isn't that much better in this respect, I must add...

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #788 on: January 19, 2016, 03:06:45 PM »
"Some states restrict the ability of car makers to sell their vehicles directly to the ultimate consumer, mandating the use of independent, franchised dealers. Several new entrants into automobile manufacturing have sought to bypass or overturn these restrictions and deal directly with the public. Are restrictions on direct distribution in this industry in the public interest? This panel will include experts on both sides of this contentious issue."
What? In the land of the free? Why?

The automobile dealership association is upset because the sell-direct-to-consumer model pretty much invalidates their whole business of filling their dealerships with unordered cars and selling them for as high a price as they can -- then making more money from every service visit.  (Most Teslas in the U.S. are ordered and sold via the Tesla website, with no haggling about price.  In some states, Tesla "showrooms" are not even permitted to discuss price, let alone take an order for a car.)

Dealerships that sell gas cars have little or no incentive to sell even their own electric models, which generally require more of a salesperson's time, and provide less profit.  And Tesla's ultra-convenient over-the-air update feature equates to fewer service visits and less income for dealers.  (It also greatly reduces planned obsolescence -- Tesla owners can essentially get a new car downloaded into their garage overnight!)
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100515_numerous-advantages-to-laws-mandating-car-dealers-tesla-inconvenient-nada-ceo

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101178_most-car-dealers-are-lousy-at-selling-electric-cars-heres-why

http://www.theverge.com/2016/1/18/10785834/tesla-upgrades-gm-super-cruise-bmw-self-parking


But the FTC thinks competition is good:
Quote
The agency called the revisions to the state franchise laws nothing less than "protectionism" for auto dealers that is "likely harming...competition and consumers."

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101743_tesla-to-testify-at-ftc-hearing-on-auto-dealer-franchise-laws

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1098276_ftc-calls-michigans-tesla-ban-protectionism-for-dealers


Some Tesla owners have crossed state lines to help out in states that ban Tesla stores or showrooms.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1095124_minnesota-tesla-owners-show-banned-model-s-to-iowa-electric-car-shoppers
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #789 on: January 19, 2016, 07:31:06 PM »
Solar-powered plane "Solar Impulse 2" to Continue Around the World Flight in April 2016
http://compositesmanufacturingmagazine.com/2016/01/solar-impulse-team-reveals-plans-to-continue-world-flight-in-april/
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Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #790 on: January 20, 2016, 05:14:53 AM »

What? In the land of the free? Why?

When vested interests collide with the principles the land of the free is quite flexible on principles it seems. Finland isn't that much better in this respect, I must add...

Yes, perfect competition is an illusion. What I reacted to was that this sounded like state legislation. Legislated oligopoly to protect investments. And with Sigmetnows qoute from the FTC it is.
Ah well, we have our own criminals, that every Swede is supposed to own, Vattenfall. But that's a different topic. :)

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #791 on: January 20, 2016, 06:11:19 AM »
Vattenfall takes a lot of flak, and some deservedly. But i must say that they have some of the clearest lifecycle cost assessments. Those may not be accurate, but at least it lets you understand their analysis.

Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #792 on: January 20, 2016, 09:15:25 AM »
There are good and bad things with everything, sidd. That goes for Vattenfall as well.

But they have a lot to answer for and they aren't stupid. Like when they signed a contract in Germany, in which they would be held accountable in case of a larger nuclear accident. They solved that little problem by changing the company form for their German subsidiary company so that the Swedish company could not be held accountable. Who pays?
They promised clean energy with CCS. Who pays?
They purchased Nuon in 2009 for nearly 100 billion SEK. Who pays?

Vattenfall is owned by the Swedish people and should be controlled by our government. Sweden is regarded by many as one of the greenest western nations. We even regard ourselves as a leading nation when it comes to mitigation and we have high ambitions for the future.

We already had nuclear and hydro, so those were simple mitigation tasks. If we and Vattenfall would have spent some more of that money on alternative energy, then we as a nation would even be able to get rid of our old nuclear plants.

Vattenfail emits 88,4 million tonnes/year abroad while Swedens internal emissions are roughly 50. We bought more cars than ever in 2015. We import more oil. Our emissions abroad due to consumption are increasing.

I call that hypocrisy.

Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #793 on: January 22, 2016, 05:14:37 AM »
Are self-driving cars legal? And if so, can I drive home drunk in one?
http://grist.org/business-technology/are-self-driving-cars-legal-and-if-so-can-i-drive-home-drunk-in-one/
Quote
And then I realized the most awesome, unexpected thing: The cars Google, Apple, Tesla, General Motors et al are inventing represent a bold leap forward in technology, sure — but it’s also a bold leap backward. All these companies are reinventing the horse.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #794 on: January 22, 2016, 04:14:41 PM »
Well, this is timely ;) :  How to burn less gas, without buying a new car (even if you don't change the way you drive).

Low-Rolling Resistance Tires Can Save Fuel
http://www.consumerreports.org/fuel-economy/low-rolling-resistance-tires-can-save-fuel
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #795 on: January 22, 2016, 04:30:26 PM »
Are self-driving cars legal? And if so, can I drive home drunk in one?
http://grist.org/business-technology/are-self-driving-cars-legal-and-if-so-can-i-drive-home-drunk-in-one/
Quote
And then I realized the most awesome, unexpected thing: The cars Google, Apple, Tesla, General Motors et al are inventing represent a bold leap forward in technology, sure — but it’s also a bold leap backward. All these companies are reinventing the horse.

As Elon Musk has said, the ultimate test of an autonomous driving system is that it must be safer than human drivers.  The Tesla Autopilot is already showing that to be the case (anecdotally, if not statistically-significantly yet).  This despite really stupid drivers like the one who engaged autopilot, then climbed into the back seat.  :o  And posted a video of it on YouTube. ::)   ;D
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #796 on: January 22, 2016, 04:35:59 PM »
Well, yhat is very easy for every owner of any car. Take the slimmest tires which are allowed on your car, inflate the to a pressure for fully loaded car look whatt your mpg will be (for european readers l/100Km or swedish (sleepy) dl/mil).
I did this with our 3 last cars, Volvo S90, VW Jetta 2l Fsi and Passat TDi. Every car took significant less fuel with overinflated slim tires, most significant the Jetta with over 1l/100Km less fuelconsumtion.

magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #797 on: January 22, 2016, 05:18:10 PM »
yeah and what will think the relatives of killed pedestrians that were only hit because the breaking distance is significantly longer with overinflated and/or slimmer tires? i don't think that saving fuel at the expense of safety margins is a valid option and then this is a typical example of closing one gap by opening a new one while when al this argument is narrowed down to the roots the real cause for almost any environmental problem is over population and artificial underpricing of energy consuming gadgets and tools.

Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #798 on: January 22, 2016, 06:34:30 PM »
Are self-driving cars legal? And if so, can I drive home drunk in one?
http://grist.org/business-technology/are-self-driving-cars-legal-and-if-so-can-i-drive-home-drunk-in-one/
Quote
And then I realized the most awesome, unexpected thing: The cars Google, Apple, Tesla, General Motors et al are inventing represent a bold leap forward in technology, sure — but it’s also a bold leap backward. All these companies are reinventing the horse.

As Elon Musk has said, the ultimate test of an autonomous driving system is that it must be safer than human drivers.  The Tesla Autopilot is already showing that to be the case (anecdotally, if not statistically-significantly yet).  This despite really stupid drivers like the one who engaged autopilot, then climbed into the back seat.  :o  And posted a video of it on YouTube. ::)   ;D

Yes, it must be safer than humans.
But again, how about winter? These are really good conditions for winter driving, from Iceland:


Iceland also has some other not so auto pilot friendly stuff falling from the skies occasionally. :)

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #799 on: January 22, 2016, 06:58:05 PM »
Everyone talks to their car.  But this one replies!

Watch a Tesla Model S owner talk to his car with Amazon Echo [Video]
http://electrek.co/2016/01/22/tesla-model-s-amazon-echo-alexa/
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